Ten (Phillies Discussion)

Other Stuff

This will serve as the Phillies’ discussion.

Just ten more wins.

The Phillies play tonight at the Bank with the series tied.  It appears the Phillies have the edge in starting pitchers for the next 2-3 games.  Go Phillies!

FWIW, the Diamondbacks worry me.  They started from the sixth spot just like our Phillies.  And it looks like they are following the roadmap the Phillies followed last year.

I would like to face and beat the Astros in the World Series.  But, don’t really care as long as the Phillies get there.

Random stuff:

I’m considering restarting the daily recaps next year.  Any interest?

I started looking into how to run a Readers’ Poll.  Does that still interest people?

I’m going on a long weekend today.  That’s why I’m posting this today.  The comments are almost at too wieldy a number.  And, I don’t know how WordPress will act on the road.  I’ll be in Gatlinburg.  Probably better off leaving Phillies clothing at home.

The High Performance Camp started Monday.  No baseball activities so far.

Key Dates

  • October 7-14: Division Series
  • October 15-24: League Championship Series
  • October 27 – November 4, 2023: World Series
  • October TBA: Start of the Arizona Fall League
  • November 4, 2023: Game 7 of the World Series (if needed)
  • November TBA: Last day for a club to make a qualifying offer to an eligible former player who became a free agent, the 5th day after World Series, 5 p.m. EST
  • November TBA: Last day for a player to accept a qualifying offer, 10th day after World Series, 5 p.m. EST
  • November 7-9, 2023: General Managers’ meetings, Scottsdale, AZ
  • November 14-16: Owners meetings, Arlington, TX
  • November 17, 2023: Last day for teams to offer 2024 contracts to unsigned players on their 40-man rosters
  • December 4-7, 2023: Winter meetings, Nashville, TN
  • December 6, 2023: Winter meeting draft, Nashville, TN
  • December 15, 2023: Close of the 2022-2023 international signing period, 5 p.m. EST
  • January 12, 2024: Salary arbitration figures exchanged
  • January 15, 2024: Opening of the 2023-2024 international signing period, 9 a.m. EST
  • January 29 – February 16, 2024: Salary arbitration hearings, Scottsdale, AZ
  • February 13, 2024: Voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers, and injured players
  • February 18, 2024: Voluntary reporting date for other players
  • February 23, 2024: Mandatory reporting date
  • March 1-10, 2024: Period for renewing contracts of unsigned players on 40-man rosters
  • March 20-21, 2024: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego in Seoul, South Korea
  • March 28, 2024: Opening day for all other teams, active rosters reduced to 26 players
  • June 8-9, 2024: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia at London
  • July 13, 2024: Futures Game, Arlington, TX
  • July 14-16, 2024: Amateur draft, Arlington, TX
  • July 16, 2024: All-Star Game, Arlington, TX
  • September 29, 2024: Regular season ends

Transactions (10/2 thru 10/10)

October 2023

10/07/2023 – Phillies activated RHP Michael Lorenzen
10/07/2023 – 3B Weston Wilson roster status changed by Phillies

 

251 thoughts on “Ten (Phillies Discussion)”

  2. Maybe not Phillies gear but definitively Eagles gear. I’m in Eastern NC, lots of Eagles fans here. Walk thru a group of people and you will hear “Go Eagles” from someone or a couple.

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  4. Bryce Elder to start tonight. Phillies would do well to work his pitch counts and get traffic on the bases. Let the fans get into it. Young guy, hasn’t pitched in over two weeks, finished the season with multiple clunkers sandwiched around a good start or two. He can still be effective, but absolutely cannot let him get comfortable.

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  5. Very interested in a daily recap, Jim. Enjoy your trip. Nola shuts them down in the first, we score early and Phils win! My prediction!

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    1. Matt, I like your prediction. Hope the fans are a big boost. I just saw on my computer it says time is 5:07 instead of 6. Is that correct? Like game 1 hope the Phillies can find a way for a win and put the pressure back on the Braves. I realized Monday night that 27 outs sure is a lot. One of my friends is in D.C. and he texted in the 5th. I told him it was still a long way to go. It sure way. Hope tonight is different.

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  6. I love the daily recaps but am no longer interested in ranking prospects but that’s just me.

    Most of my work team is in Minneapolis so I would love a Twins Phillies WS but like you said I just want to get there and win this time. Don’t think I can stomach another WS loss.

    My expectation has pretty much been it would be a tall ask to beat the Braves again but if we do I will be thrilled.

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  7. Agree that daily recaps will be very much appreciated. Have a fun trip, Jim! My prediction, Nola shuts down tge Braves in the first, we then score, and continue to a big W. Go Phils!

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  10. As a long time, avid, daily reader and an occasional contributor, I thoroughly enjoy your daily recaps Jim and would enthusiastically welcome them back! I am a native Philadelphian who lives the northern suburbs of Philly and follow all of our local teams closely. The insight provided on this format is amazing. To have daily reporting from a person who lives in Clearwater is better than any coverage our Philly print and air media have ever provided- there has been no close 2nd.

    Appreciate Jim and all of the regular contributors!!!

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  11. If Elder is starting tonight, then Strider is starting tomorrow which means this is a must win game tonight. Can’t go down 2-1 and trying to score against Strider even if it is at our house.

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    1. Wanted to see how Strider does on four days rest vs 5 or more,
      ……could still be a pretty formidable undertaking to get to him.
      Opponent slash lines based on days rest.
      4 days rest….226/295/449
      5 days rest….205/276/325
      6+ days………202/266/325

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  12. Romus – thanks for that info on Strider’s days rest. The only thing I would add is he has now pitched 193 innings (7 in the post season) vs. 133 innings ( 2 in post season) in 2022. His home run rate is about double what it was in 2022 at 1.1 (hr/outing). Otherwise his peripherals are very similar. We have to hope the grind slows him down somehow.

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    1. Yes RU…..this is the most he has pitched in his lifetime, within one season, just may take a toll. And maybe the toll satarts tomorrow.

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  13. These guys are doing the same thing with Elder that they did when he totally baffled them during his start earlier this season. The boys better wake up or the Braves just might be celebrating on the CBP infield tomorrow.

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  14. Is Harper the greatest postseason hitter ever? Maybe (no, heck yeah!)
    Is Harper the greatest player I’ve had the opportunity to cheer for, in any sport, in my 62.5 years on this planet? Without question.

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    2. He’s on his way to being the most clutch Phillie ever. He’s coming up in big spots, usually seeing minimal pitches in the zone and just pouncing on mistake pitches and doing serious damage.

      He’s up there with Rollins and Werth for postseason glory.

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  15. I don’t understand how you can trot out a RH pitcher who’s throwing 89-91 not named Zack Greinke or Kyle Hendricks. Your margin of error is so small, you can’t get through a good lineup without getting hurt. Hard to believe that the Braves didn’t give the start to Smith-Shawver.

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  16. Glad JTR called for hi-velo FB on d’Arnaud with two strikes.

    Is that Charlie manual sitting directly behind the plate in the front row?

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    1. Romus, they showed a pic of Charley in hospital hitting a ball left-handed. Not sure if pic is current or recent. I saw first inning then had to go to granddaughter volleyball. Got back to see 7-2 lead and Turner hit the HR.
      I was thinking that if Phils had used SAD on Monday in the 8th we might have got the sweep. Dominguez has a little more getty up than Hoffman.
      Need to finish tonight somehow and carry on.

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  19. Hope they don’t forget where those “dingers” are stored, because I’m sure we will need some of them tomorrow.

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  20. Checking in from traffic coming from the game. CBP, as expected, was incendiary. I’ll admit I was worried when they got men on with consecutive weak hits. And then when they scored first.

    But Nicky Castles answering immediately was huge, and then Bryce absolutely obliterating the ball felt like a statement.

    Awesome game. Let’s finish the job tomorrow.

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  21. What I’m seeing in this postseason is a serious lack of decent pitching.

    The Dodgers just got swept and they started Kershaw, Miller, Lynn. Now the Dodgers have had their share of pitching injuries and obviously losing Urias was a huge blow, but there’s no excuse to trade for Lance Lynn. Seriously? He was terrible.

    The Twins started Ober, Lopez, Gray, Ryan. They were surprisingly healthy and they started their 4 best pitchers, although their 4 and 5 were replacement level. It just wasn’t enough against the Astros. And Sonny Gray is a FA.

    The Orioles started Bradish, Rodriguez, Kremer. Outside of Bradish, the other starters were replacement level or worse. They had a monster bullpen but they should have traded for a starter.

    And these were just the teams that already got eliminated.

    I think pitching is going to be a premium again this offseason. Snell is going to get paid and I think Nola won’t be that far behind. Everybody is looking for pitching.

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    1. You’re right that pitching will be expensive again. But for the Dodgers, in addition to the ridiculous number of injuries, they thought they were trading for E-Rod, but the Tigers GM didn’t think to ask if he’d be willing to play in LA. So Lynn was sort of an afterthought. I’m not sure they’re targeting any pitching this year outside of Ohtani and maybe Yamamoto.

      And for the O’s, everyone and their dog knew the O’s needed some starting pitching. But they weren’t about to trade for a rental. They want controllable assets. They’re also not likely to dip their feet into the upper echelon of starting pitcher free agents, so they’re likely looking for a Lopez-Arraez trade of their own this offseason.

      The Twins are the Twins. They’ll sign someone for a mid-range contract and either get a #2 or a #5 out of it.

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  23. From the desert in Arizona.

    Does not take much to see the Phillies are pushing for 22-year old Gabriel Rincones Jr to break out for next season.
    Already played in all the Scottsdale games-7…….33 PAs and slashing .333/.455/.593 in his early SSS…leads his team and is one of the leaders in the league.

    Phillies: Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF (No. 9),………, Scottsdale Scorpions…………Rincones belted his first home run of the Fall League — a two-run shot in the second inning — to help the Scorpions to an early lead. Rounding out his night with a double and a walk, the left-handed batter scored a run each time he reached base. Splitting his time between Single-A Clearwater and High-A Jersey Shore, the 22-year-old racked up 81 runs during the regular season, which ranked second among Phillies Minor Leaguers.

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    1. A deep and competent farm system allows you to make good trades for cost controlled pieces you need. Thinking about pitching and the times we were able to deal for Lee and Halladay.

      Now is not the time to lament the Lee/Lorenzen trade but also thinking about the Pablo Lopez trade for Luis Arráez.

      Doling out $200 and $300 million contracts is not sustainable.

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      1. DMAR…agreed.
        I do believe Dombrowski/ Fuld see the startegy of a 5-year plan and realize the farm has to harvest good crops of talented players.

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        1. Given Dombrowski’s history, congrats to him for (a) back to back LCS – and (b) no mortgage of the farm to get here.

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      2. Halladay wanted to go to the Phillies so the Blue Jays were in a bind (and the Phillies benefited greatly). The farm system wasn’t good at the time so the Phillies were very willing to trade Drabek, Taylor, d’Arnaud for Halladay.

        In the Lee trade, the Indians fell in love with Jason Knapp. He was young, threw hard, but he was 3 years away easy. And when prospects are that far away, a lot can happen and he got hurt and wasn’t the same. It was a tough break for the Indians. It was an easy choice for the Phillies to get a player like Cliff Lee.

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    2. It will be interesting to see how aggressive the Phillies will be with certain players (McGowan, Osterberg, Crawford) and also Rincones. Rincones will be 23 next season, and you figure that he’s maybe 2 years way. I think Castellanos will be back with the Phillies for 2024, not sure if they want to eat that much money just yet.

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      1. I think you’re wrong about eating a lot of money with Castey if they trade him this offseason. He has shown well this season and postseason. I think someone will take him off your hands without much contribution and they may throw in a lottery ticket. It may be now or never with him.

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        1. Nick Castellanos will be 32 next season, he’s essentially a DH still owed 3/60. He’s a luxury for teams for high payrolls. If you want to increase the teams willing to take him on, you’ll need to eat some money.

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          1. Yup, but I don’t think it will be all that bad. Maybe $15 million or so over the remaining life of the deal. More if they want good prospects back in return.

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        2. I hope Bellinger opts out and walks….maybe the Cubs will bite on Castellanos and the bat he brings to the table.
          Phillies could eat a percentage of his contract, and in return maybe a pitching prospect or two comes back…one which does not need 40 protection as of yet.

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  24. Marsh was huge last night again stop with the platoon from here on out…

    I also don’t want to see Rojas attempt a bunt ever again this season!

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  25. I was at the game last night with my family. Magical experience. The Bank was electric. Harper is on a different level. Just love his fire and energy. Love that he turned the “atta boy” into fighting words. Love that Castellanos is making me eat my words. Love it. Keep doing it Nick!. (I would still trade him in the offseason, but won’t reveal my plan until the season ends). And I love that Nola shut up all of the negative nellies. I have never understood why the fan base doesn’t love Nola. He is such a great pitcher an one of the rare home grown SP examples. I love him. I trust him in big spots. I would re-sign him this offseason.

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    1. No, I get it. Nola can be one of the best pitchers in baseball in a given year. In another year, he can be like a borderline #3 starter. He is not as consistent as you would like in a frontline starter, but he is very durable and gives you a lot of innings and when he’s on, he’s amazing.

      I was very iffy on whether to give him a huge deal. If the team thinks it has fixed a mechanical problem with him, I could understand that a bit more.

      Listen, I like Nola and have, historically, been one of his biggest defenders, but they need to be really careful with a long term contract here, particularly with Wheeler’s deal ending next year.

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      1. I agree, the Phillies can’t go crazy with a contract here.

        Here’s another thought, I don’t think the Phillies will be able to re-sign both Nola and Wheeler. Do you give Nola a 5-6 year deal and then watch Wheeler walk, or let Nola walk knowing that you can give Wheeler a 3 year deal next season?

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      2. Here is Nola’s ERA/FIP and the Phillies DRS by year:

        Year ERA/FIP/Phillies DRS
        2015 3.59 / 4.03 / -98
        2016 4.78 / 3.08 / -11
        2017 3.54 / 3.27 / -33
        2018 2.37 / 3.01 / -89
        2019 3.87 / 4.03 / +68
        2020 3.28 / 3.19 / -33
        2021 4.63 / 3.37 / -54
        2022 3.25 / 2.58 / -33
        2023 4.46 / 4.03 / -25

        Our defense has been a drag on Nola throughout his career. But he can’t be responsible for our poor team defense. If you isolate what he controls, he has been consistently an exceptional pitcher. Is he an Ace? Depends on how you define Ace…is he a top 30 pitcher in MLB? Yes. clearly. Are there other pitchers better than him? Definitely.

        But you also have to ask, who are we going to get that’s better? And at what cost?

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        1. exactly, vi, those are the questions. Who could we get that is better? Maybe Snell? And at what cost. I am a Nola fan. My problem is, knowing that we are not cheap, that John Middleton spends $, and that he is our home grown guy, I have to believe we gave him a substantial offer. One that he turned down. And if it was close, then I believe both sides would have worked it to come to a deal. That makes me believe that we were far apart. Far apart on an offer that was already substantial, puts us in a contract range that may not be smart to do for the team. I just don’t know the numbers.

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        2. IMO, the ones out there this off-season….though maybe not better than Nola, but draw my interest…are the following:
          Jack Flaherty (28)*….Lucas Giolito (29)*
          Sonny Gray (34)……..Jake Odorizzi (34)*
          Martin Perez (33)*….Luis Severino (30)
          Blake Snell (31)……….Julio Urias (27)
          Marcus Stroman (33) maybe
          ….and some have outside baggage and health concerns.
          Snell may be the only one, with Nola, as the top two free agent starting pitcher draws.
          Snell may cost $30M plus AAV…not sure what Nola’s future AAV will be but it could be in that neighborhood….high $20Ms thru low $30Ms.
          I think it will come down to length…5 years vs 6 or more

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          1. Somebody is going to give Nola 7 or 8 years. It might be DD. Withholding judgment on whether that would be a good thing. Ultimately, however, Snell is extremely attractive if we can get him. Think of a rotation in 2025 of Wheeler (we need to extend him), Snell, Suarez, Painter and Abel/Walker/Sanchez? Wow.

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            1. They need to realize what they have in Ranger. Scout your own players. Get him signed to a 4-5 year deal with options. The cost is only going to go up.

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            2. Whatever direction they go, it will be costly.
              And 7 or 8 years puts Nola at age38/39….not sure he will see a contract for that length.
              Cole got his from Cashman at age 29 for 8 years…I think the Phillies , if Dombrowski wants go there with Nola, will be 6 plus an option…more than likely a mutual option, with a reasonable buy-out for that 7th year.
              Snell, like Nola, will be going into his age31 season in 2024.
              I cannot see him getting a contract beyond seven years also.

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  26. With you on Marsh, dmar! Also on no more Rojas attempts to bunt until he is taught how to. He clearly never learned. And I am a big Rojas fan. Just his plu plus D makes him an evrey day player. Learning to bunt will hwlp him a lot. So will staying off the high FB. That is what the off season is for. Great game, Harper got every bit of that 1st HR, the crowd was terrific, and I can’t wait for tonight’s game. We win, I predict! Another Bryce HR, and it is time for Schwarber to join the party!

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    1. Matt, again I like your prediction. I hope Phillies add even a few more HRs just for good measure. Think it is important that the Phillies win tonight.
      I was thinking earlier today that last year I got to watch this game from hotel room at Disney. Hoping for the same outcome from my chair here in Indiana. BTW there were many Phillies fans at Disney a year ago as Jim was talking about his trip this weekend. Go Phils.

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    2. The one thing that can’t happen to night is for Bohm to look as bad as he did against Strider in Game 1. He needs to protect Harper. Other than that, I see Schwarber and Stott getting some big hits with the rightie on the mound. Feels like Schwarber is due. He’s not going to sit out the whole postseason. Marsh has certainly earned his playing time this season. I’d give him all the chances until he fails. Not like Rojas and Pache are white hot or anything.

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      1. Marsh didn’t look good vs Strider either. The book is out on Marsh, get him to chase breaking balls with 2 strikes, especially with the back foot slider. Strider has a decent slider so Marsh needs to lay off that pitch. Easier said than done when Strider is also pumping 98mph fastballs.

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  27. Kerkering was first team Relief Pitcher on MLB’s all-prospect team https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-team-of-the-year-2023

    Kerkering began the year with Single-A Clearwater, and it’s looking like he’s going to finish it on the big league postseason roster. His ability to pound the zone (2.0 BB/9) with his fastball and slider allowed him to strike out 13.2 per nine in the Minors this year, and he has the third best K-BB percentage (32.2) of any pitcher in the Minor Leagues with 50 or more innings.

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  28. We phans really can’t too far ahead of ourselves. As I recollect, the Phillies came back from Houston last year even. They went on to blast, I think, four home runs and went on to win game 3 and lead the series 2-1. Remember what happened next? They were no hit. From there, Houston won game 5 and wrapped it up at home. This game tonight is sooo important. Hope our boys are up for it.

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    1. I am sure Strider heard the Philly faithful last night late in the game.
      This will be his ‘Harper’ moment tonight …we will see if he steps up.
      For the Phillies facing him for the 6th time this year, and close to 35 innings already, maybe the bats will make it easier for Ranger.

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      1. Strider is a classic power pitcher. He may only make one or two mistakes over the plate and you need to make sure you get to a few of them.

        Outside of that you have to hope that Ranger and the BP can keep things within reach.

        No walks especially lead off BBs and end of the order BBs, don’t fear the solo HR and stay clear of the big innings.

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        2. There is an article with a quote from Spencer Strider saying how much he loves to pitch here! Do you think the Phillies should try to get him?

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  29. Romus, I give credit to Strider for being a really good Pitcher, and still have faith that we are going to get to him tonight. I think Schwarber is overdue this Series, and will make his own statement. I don’t know how other teams handle pre-Playoff game festivities. But, I was so impressed with what the Phils did. The band, Split Decision, was really good, the energy was terrific, there were food trucks, and Adult beverages, loads of people standing in line for giveaways. Seat Geek was the most popular, giving away Phillies red cups. It was really a great time, and the young couple wearing Braves gear, one was wearing an Acuna Jersey, were not booed or mistreated in any way. So, I was proud of our fans.

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    1. matt……sounded like great times at the Bank.
      Now the cherry on top….a win again.
      Schwarber is due for sure.

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  30. Casty now has 4 HRs in 2 games in front of his son.

    The most important free agent to sign this offseason is the best private tutor in the world for Liam so he can attend all post season games.

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    2. I love that Castellanos is making me eat my words. Every time I say that I want to trade him he goes off. So I will be saying that before every game the rest of the year.

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      1. You have to give him all the credit in the world for coming up this big when it mattered most and for fighting back from his horrendous first season with the team. He has never played nearly this well for the Phillies and it is a joy to watch him excel.

        But here’s another tip of the cap to DD. Like Pat Gillick he has a nearly unparalleled sense of how to build a championship roster. And, he is very good at building the whole puzzle, step-by-step over a long period of time. It’s hard to imagine, but the 2020 bullpen disaster was due, in large part, to having a bullpen with a bunch of soft tossers. DD saw that the future of baseball was and is a stable of power arms and he slowly and methodically, acquired one hard thrower after the next and now, as a group, they are nearly elite and extremely deep – all without signing any elite bp free agents. He is doing the same now with the defense. The 2023 team is so much better in the field than last year’s group.

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        1. Especially the playoff roster. Realmuto, Turner, Stott and Rojas up the middle on defense is really quite good.

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          1. Maybe it is about time you start being a little more critical of Alec Bohm……he seems to need a helping hand lately.

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  36. Seriously, those 3 BBs drove me to drink! But what a job the BP did even with Topper turning it upside down! Thought we should have scored more and worried that it would come back and bite us in the ass, but the Pitchers were terrific and we move on! Just love this team! Rojas plays CF every day and Marsh plays LF and I am more convinced of that than ever.

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    1. I said it before and I’ll say it again – Topper is, by far, the best Phillies manager I’ve ever seen (Charlie was great too, especially with the players, but hardly an elite in-game manager). He does it all. He manages player personalities. He plays young players when virtually no other manager (and, certainly, Girardi) would, he is on the cutting edge with analytics and player health, and he never loses his cool; he’s always in command. You could be looking at one of the greatest managers ever. I’m serious, who is better than him? I can think of some managers that are right up there, but I don’t know of anyone right now, or in the recent past who is better than Thomson.

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  37. Great series. Castellanos said it right, “regular season baseball and playoff baseball are two different things.”

    DD knows that really well and he stocked this team with alphas who love the big moments. What a fantastic team. Now let’s finish it this year!

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    2. That’s the whole thing right there.. we have killers.. murders of baseballs… and spotlight seekers.. nobody really wilts in any moments.. Nola was my biggest worry in that department but he’s stepped up and switched on the extra gear that’s needed in postseason…. not sure how it pans out but glad to see him perform well and bolster his future/value as bad playoff performances will cost millions for sure

      what’s the thoughts on sanchez.. doesn’t his stuff play better against the dbacks.. seemed they went all gas against the braves and rightfully so… dbacks are rolling and sometimes you got to speed bump a team like that.. sanchez’s change is a hell of a pitch to not deploy in some fashion moving forward

      hows rhys doing.. power bench bat would look might nice about now

      keep the foot on the gas and cleats on the throats

      8 more

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  38. This team is clutch and so fun! Can’t believe we knocked the Braves off again this year!
    …And now have HOME FIELD for the NLCS! Whaaaaat??!?!?!

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  39. My lord this team is awesome … you guys will say a lot of the same things I will so I will put this out there. There will be a lot of talk for the Braves layoff as the reason this team lost to the “inferior” Phillies .. but to that I say rubbish. Much more of an impact was letting Freeman go, replacing him with Olson. On the whole, Olson had a tremendous season but Freeman with Riley in a playoff series is more clutch imo. I used to fear freeman coming up to bat. Not sure what he did in the LA series but freeman was a phillie killer. Same scenario with Swanson. Yup they got great value, for the money & production but they water downed their talent level to extend their playoff window. This is the result. Their pitching injuries hurt them but …. When you score 8 runs over 4 gms… does it really matter?

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    1. Braves has great players, but not a great team. Who’s the leader in their locker room? Who’s their Dutch, Chase, Schawbs, etc?

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      1. I think Ozzie tries to be,
        ….may come down to Riley next year, maybe Olson,
        ….certainly not Acuna.

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  40. Tac, I agree that everyone is pointing to the layoff before the series as some big deal and also agree it’s a bunch of rubbish.

    I think the bigger problem for these 100-win teams is that they had basically clinched their playoff spot and with the exception of Baltimore, the division title by early August and spent the last 2 months just playing games without any pressure.

    After spending all that time in cruise control, it’s not surprising that it’s difficult to crank the intensity level back to 10.

    Also agree that there are just certain players who thrive in the spotlight and some who do not.

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    1. 3up…….since the three game WC series has started……the sitting rested teams have proven to be worse off…..check out results, and especially check out the first game results……and each had home team advantage in the five game series.

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      1. I’m sure there is something to it … maybe 10% but … the Phillies also gift wrapped GM2 for them. That’s better than 10% IMO

        Let me ask this …
        When a player has an OPS of 1.600+ against you … and you still pitch to him … is that the layoff?
        When a teams 3rd starter vs you had an era of 0.00, until his last 2 innings.. he gives up a solo hr … to your top player …
        Or
        If your team is known not to be able to hit the FB above 98mph …. And the bullpen you’re facing has 5 RP capable of hitting 98+ mph … probably 100mph ….

        I think the Braves have bigger issues than the layoff when facing the Phillies. It’s like the GM of the Phillies knew how to beat the Braves in a 5GM series 🙂

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        1. No one is talking about Snitker staying with Elder v Harper, 3- run home turned that 3rd game around. Thomson would have had a lefty in there.

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          1. Then leaving him in afterwards to put 2 more guys on base only to use probably his 12th-13th pitcher on the roster to enter the game to pitch to JTR and give up 2 more runs.

            Snitker definitely was a problem for the Braves.

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      2. it’s only been 3 years with the 3-game round 1 so the sample is small but if I’m looking at it correctly, in 2022.

        Braves lost to the Phillies
        LAD beat SD
        NYY beat Cle
        Houston beat Sea

        So 3 of the 4 “favorites” won the 1st game of their series.

        In 2023, 3 of the 4 “underdogs” won the 1st game.

        2020 was a weird covid shortened season so not sure I put much weight in the format since everything was screwed up.

        Like

        1. SD beat the Dodgers last year, so it’s actually 3-5 in favor of the wildcards in the past two years.

          But the people who argue the layoff is to blame are conveniently forgetting two things:

          1) the third division winner doesn’t get a layoff and is also only 50-50 with the wild cards

          2) the Astros have steamrolled twice in a row after a bye.

          There might be a marginal amount of rust to kick off with a week bye. But it is nowhere near as bad as the crapshoot of playing in the first round. Ask the Brewers if they would have traded places with the Dodgers. Avoiding an extra series (especially a short one) while being able to rest your pitchers and set up your rotation is an advantage. But sometimes you run into teams on the war path.

          Like

  41. When it comes to pitching, of the four remaining teams…I like the Phillies three top starters overall with the Astros a close second.
    DBacks Gallen and Kelly are workhorses, but as RHPs, Schwarber , Harper, Marsh and Stott could have a big series to start.
    I sure hope Schwarber gets off his mini schneid.

    Like

    1. Gallen is MUCH better than a workhorse. I am convinced he is Aaron Nola’s evil twin. They pitch roughly the same and even look alike. Gallen looks more like Aaron’s brother than Aaron’s brother!

      Like

      1. Agree that D-backs top-2 starters are very good. Phillies biggest pitching advantage comes with Ranger at #3 and the bullpen depth.

        On offense, the Phillies line-up is much deeper 1-9. Will be a challenging series.

        Like

      2. Plus Gallen is from Jersey (his family is full of Phillies fans; after they clinched he was interviewed about the Phillies and he said his family was probably in CBP during game 3) and playing down south. And, of course, Nola is a southern boy playing up here in Philly.

        Like

    2. ……………need that case of Maalox by Monday. Tell the FedEx guy not to sit it on the front porch in the sun! I don’t want it to go bad, ok? Hard to swallow when its chunky.

      Like

      1. Skeet….hopefully you will not need the Maalox…though if we get to the WS…and have to face Bochy order more.

        Like

  42. That was a ride through the haunted house but we came out the other side unscathed. And I agree Romus there are some good arms left but nothing the likes of Strider.

    If we can beat him 2x we should be able to handle the rest of what we are going to see.

    D-Backs are coming in hot though…

    Like

    1. DMAR…….that Carroll is something else…he seems to give them the spark that ignites their offense….though Walker, Marte and Guriel do have big bats also and can also explode.
      Wondering f Torey Luvollo will go with henry to try to neutralize Phillies LHBs like Schwarber, Stott, harper and Marsh?
      And agree with you…play Marsh all the time..

      Like

        1. Correct, it is now determined by record with head-to-head as the tie breaker.

          Phillies, Rangers, and Astros are all tied in record. So we get home field if we match up with the Astros (2-1), but not against the Rangers (0-3).

          Would be kind of ironic if we end up having to be the away team in the world series due to our ice cold start to the season. Of course, we have to get there first before it matters.

          Like

          1. Oh wow thanks for that Dan K. I was assuming since the Astros one their division that would trump the head to head.

            Like

  43. For those who subscribe to the Athletic, Stark’s article is pretty incredible about the team DD built and why they’re crushing in October. Basic takeaway, stop whining about the format and focus on what’s getting teams like the Phillies to the end. One big thing he mentions is health, and I do feel like the Phils prioritize that with their staff especially more than other teams. I’d like to see more off days for some of the regulars next season, esp guys like Trea who are here for 10 more seasons!

    https://theathletic.com/4959514/2023/10/13/mlb-playoff-system-phillies-astros-braves-dodgers/?source=user_shared_article

    Like

  44. Just like v1 said above, quoting Castellanos. There is a big difference between regular season and Playoff baseball. We have guys who love these situations, who, more importantly, thrive and perform in these situations. Look at Castles himself, regular season 41% swings at pitches out of the zone, and the Playoffs, 16%. I didn’t know those numbers, just read them, but certainly see him laying off that slider down and away. Now we need Schwarber to join the party. And cannot believe our Pitchers held them to 7 runs in 4 games. Great job guys, now let’s go beat the Dbacks!

    Like

  45. Matt and Romus, Mad Dog yesterday said he is tired of teams saying playoffs are a crapshoot. Cited Astros 7 straight LCS visits. Maybe if Phillies can continue on this streak, he will cite them in the future. Maybe just Phillies and Astros are gamers who are built to win this time of year.
    BTW just ordered a new hat from last night. Think those are cool. Emphasize both Phillies and October. Very creative.

    Like

    1. Don – yup there is a new “Moneyball” formula. Heavy offense, 3 starters, and a gas throwing bullpen. The rest of the league can now see it. Look at how much the BP is improved over last year? They learned that from the Astros series. Look at how much the defense has improved over last year? Leaps an bounds. Everyone knew that before but that’s why Rojas was promoted by DD. On top of that, They still can sub Castellanos for Pache in the 8th/9th of a tight game. Kind of surprised Topper didn’t do that last night, but Likely because Castellanos was locked in at the plate.

      Like

      1. Tac, I agree with you. One of the key stats is HRs. Team that hits the most HRs usually wins the series. They stated it last night after the game on either TBS or MLB. Cited that the Phillies the last two years at CBP have outscored the Braves like 30-7 and out homered 14-4. One factor that I think some are missing is that some guys just rise to the top in the playoffs. Astros have some of those guys now as well as the Phillies. I will be surprised if the WS is not a repeat of 22 but each has to get 4 wins and the Rangers and D-backs are hot.

        Like

  46. Looked at the NLCS schedule and it’s a 2-3-2 format with Game 1 on Monday. So having a 4th starter is in play if you want regular rest for all your starters. So obviously the Phillies will go with Wheeler, Nola, Suarez to start. I would personally give the 4th start to Sanchez and not Walker/Lorenzen.

    The DBacks will counter with Gallen, Kelly, Pfaadt. Gallen and Kelly are tough but Pfaadt is nowhere near as good as Suarez. And their 4th (whoever it may be) will be worse than Sanchez.

    The Phillies will definitely have the pitching edge. They shouldn’t take the Dbacks lightly but they should win this series easily. I was way more worried watching the Phillies face Strider twice in a short series.

    Like

    2. For the game 4 starter, I actually kind of expect a piggy-back start. Start with Lorenzen once or twice through the order, then switch to Sanchez for the next time or two and let the ‘pen handle their business from there.

      The reason being twofold; it gives the Snakes a different look (Suarez and Sanchez are fairly similar pitches, so Lorenzen, especially, would make them change approaches). And also because Sanchez is at the highest IP of his career by far and would be making his post-season debut. Giving him a couple innings in the hostile environment to settle down before pitching, as well as limiting his innings, should help a bit.

      Oh, and leave Walker on the bench (or off the roster…). Lorenzen isn’t exactly a beast in the first inning, but he’s decent. And his first time through the order he has a sub-3.50 ERA. Walker gets absolutely demolished; ERA over 7 in the first inning, and an even 5.00 the first time through the order. Maybe he would do better if he knew he wasn’t going a full start, but at this point I wouldn’t bother risking it.

      Like

  47. I’m happy all the “trade Castellanos” talk has died down. Here’s a trade suggestion in a different direction: Walker. He must have some value given how pitching-starved everyone is. Then his salary can help keep Nola.

    Like

    1. Phillies are set up well for this playoff window. I’m confident they get a “chip.” Didn’t happen how I envisioned it but… I sure as heck will take it. 37 years of fandom, 1 title experienced. I’m not counting 80’, I was still pooping my pants then.

      Crawford & Miller coming
      Painter,Abel, and McGarry coming

      Pache developing … it’s nice to see. Is Weston found something?

      The bullpen is looking good too. Pieces are in place and… we have an owner willing to spend … and how can Philly not be a FA destination now? Maybe even now, they have a chance to sign an Asian stud FA pitcher

      Like

    2. Walker has negative trade value or at best neutral value. Teams don’t line up to take overpriced guys that they would not pay that number if the guy was a free agent (3 for 57.5 left?

      Like

  48. I have never rooted for a team (any sport) that is more fun to follow than this Phillies club. They’re not just really good at hitting, pitching, and (sometimes) defense … they rise to the occassion/play best in the biggest games. Almost as importantly for me is the fact that they have great time doing it. After last nite’s game, Dave Dombrowski mentioned he’s been receiving texts from people all around the league telling him how much they like the way the Phillies play, and how much they love the atmosphere at CBP.

    The Phillies POBO has been out of this world since being hired here. He’s built this monster not by selling off the farm, but by making shrewd trades (Alvarado/Soto/Sosa/Pache), and convincing John Middleton to ignore the LTT. When he does spend Middleton’s money, he uses it on the right guys. Also love his aggressiveness when it comes to promoting/using prospects. The Phils may not win last night w/o Rojas. Kerkering has & will continue to be a usefull BP piece this postseason. And don’t forget DD was planning to slot Andrew Painter onto the opening day roster before his injury.

    I think we’re looking at WS rematch: Phillie vs Astros 2.0.

    Like

  49. Speaking of money and playing at CBP, how much do you think the average price for a ticket was the past two games and for the next (possibly 7)? With 45K+ fans at the game (and then adding concessions), the team has got to be making a lot of money.

    What do you think, gang? And need to commend Professor Romus for inadvertently predicting a Phillies-Diamondbacks series somewhere along the line. How Thomson and the pitching coach pieced together that game last night was amazing (and lucky).

    Like

      1. DMAR…..I heard it somewhere, Phillies starting pitchers led the majors in most innings ptiched this season….while their bullpen had the least amount of innings pitched.
        Which is an obvious correlation……but I guess that is a good thing for post-season baseball….just not sure if it is meaningful metric.

        Like

        1. Romus, the guy’s last night said that during the telecast. I think the 6-man rotation helped starters as well.

          Like

    2. hmm – I would say that the average ticket face price is maybe $125 for the WC; $150 for the NLDS; $175 for the NLDS and, I’d say $250 for the WS. Let’s say, on the whole tickets average $160. If you estimate 48k fans per game that’s about $7.7 million per game.

      Like

      1. Then you have concessions, increased licensed clothing sales and TV and radio revenues. I’d bet they net at least $10 million per game.

        Like

        1. Ticket sales don’t all go directly to the team. The teams pool 50-60% (depending on the series) of them together and then that money is split among all the playoff teams (with the higher percentages going to the teams with better finishes).

          For example, MLB has the 2019 pool at just under $80.9M, with the Nationals taking home just over 29.1M of that as the champions. But actually the cool thing about it is, the team’s players vote on how much of that to give to non-player personnel.

          But yeah, the Phillies’ excellent attendance is brought down a bit by the Rays this year.

          Like

      1. That is NOT what the team makes. That is a secondary market. I am a partial season ticket holder. The only games that were really expensive were the WS tickets and those were still cheap compared to the secondary market ($240 per ticket). NLCS tickets tickets in the upper deck were $120 per ticket. The WC and NLDS tickets were $75 each.

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  50. Last evening when Kimbrel got the call with runners on 1rst & 2nd, I told my wife if he does the cute little balk move I’m going to reach into the TV and wring his neck………..did you notice though, he was wearing the apparatus? Someone must have had a serious discussion with on that subject huh?

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  51. Personally, I really hope they bring back both Nola (4 years?) and Hoskins (one year?) as well as Hoffman. I would try to extend Wheeler also. Let’s keep this team together and make another run next year.

    Like

    1. Bringing back Hoskins forces us to get rid of someone. Whether that be optioning Rojas (please no), or trading one of Casty or Schwarbs. He just doesn’t have a place to play without a corresponding move.

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      1. Rojas absolutely needs to play every day at LHV to complete his hitting growth. He’s being exposed big time right now. Don’t worry, he’ll be back at some point. Harper would happily go back to the OF to allow Hoskins to come back and Marsh can play most days in CF with Pache as the 4th OF.

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        1. He is definitely a bit overmatched, but you can see signs that the ability is there. He has had some good at-bats this postseason and was robbed of a RBI single last night while facing Strider, a Cy Young candidate. The kid’s confidence seems unshakeable and I think that with experience, he will continue to improve – perhaps even as the postseason goes on.

          Like

          1. I am not worried about him as much as some. He has started slow in virtually every level coming up and then took off, should be no different at the highest level, especially with a good off-season program set up fro him
            If ypu look at his perpherals….only a 17% K-rate, with a 7% BB-rate in close to 1900 MilB PAs….that indicates he has the potential for above average contact, some of which are O-Zone but his speed has benefitted him there with his higher than normal GB rate. And since MLB is now shiftless, that should aid him a little more. His career minor league ISO of.139 reveals not a great amo unt of power……but every walk and /or single could turn into a ‘double’ that will not reflect in his SLG % , but could boost his wRC+ and certainly his RS. This off-season work will be critical to his development.

            Like

      2. DanK…..Scott Franzke said Topper told Rojas he will be the CFer now and in the future and not to worry right now about his bat. So assume that is 2024 and beyond.
        Just hope Rojas is at the Compelx come Jan/Feb working in the cages with Kevin Long when he stops in.
        We will know what they will do with Rhys in about a month now.

        Like

        1. Also signing Hoskins will cost them significant $$$ better spent on starting pitchers while Rojas makes them better defensively and is making ML minimum.

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          1. I just don’t want another Kingery. Rojas needs to be allowed to finish his development. As for they’re comments to him about having the job, I believe that implied to this year only.

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            1. Rojas isn’t going anywhere. He’s already a first division regular by virtue of his elite fielding – he’s one of the top 5 defensive players in big league baseball at any position. He generally has hung in there at the plate. He will be developed as hitter as a major leaguer and absent a complete free fall at the plate he’s here to stay.

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            2. Kingery ultimately failed because he simply wasn’t nearly as good as we thought he was. Wehave to stop blaming the team for his failure – they tried hard to rehabilitate him. He got his chances. Give me a break.

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  52. Big Hoskins fan, but there is not a spot for him. Harper is the new 1B, Schwarber is a DH, Rojas in CF and Marsh in LF. Otherwise, that means Harper back to RF, and they have to choose Rhys over Castles, and they are not going to do that, IMO, and I held that opinion before these Playoffs started.

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  53. I asked before if Rickardo Perez was allowed back. I think I have my answer. At Steve’s site showing both camp rosters, he is not listed. Too bad,
    gm

    Like

  54. Harper is really going to need to get better at first base. He has trouble scooping low balls thrown in the dirt (witness Turner’s throw last night) and wandering too far over toward second base on grounders going that way (witness last night when he got hit by Olsen running by him). Can he learn that? Of course he can but those are things that Hoskins already knows.

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    1. Yes, Harper needs to fix some things at 1b but he’s already better at the position than Hoskins. With his injury people seem to forget how poorly Hoskins played there.

      Like

    2. Ciada, he also wandered to far to his right in the Wheeler playoff loss. Stott fielded the ball and no one was on first base. Some blamed Wheeler for being slow to cover. I feel Harper had no reason to venture that far to his glove side.

      Like

  55. Harper at 1B:
    1) He has great hands
    2) He is a great athlete
    3) He is as dedicated a professional athlete as I have ever seen. He will work has tail off to be an excellent 1B. Full off season and spring training to prepare.

    He will be fine. I love Rhys as a person and much of the time as a hitter. He is about the worst 1B I have ever seen. Harper 1B, Casty in RF. Sign Nola, trade Walker.

    Like

    1. Harper and Rhys are very close friends…and with the saem agent. Boras may want MIddleton to offer a QO to Rhys as a ‘pillow/prove’ it deal.
      haper may say I will move back ut to the oF for my friend for one more year.

      I am on board with this….IF they win the Wordl Series in three weeks.

      Like

      2. Rhys is gone. Someone will offer him more than us probably a 1+ player option type of deal and rhys wouldn’t even get a full number of AB next year on this team barring a trade.

        Like

        1. Perhaps…..but if the Phillies offer him a QO that changes the equation for some teams….they will not want to forfeit a draft pick for 31-year 1B player coming off a one year abscence due to injury.
          I can see one team maybe interested and that would be his homtown team the Giants….with new coaches/manager.
          I am willing to bet John Middleton will want to offer a QO out of loyalty and respect.

          Like

          2. I don’t think Rhys quite deserves a QO – and Boras does not want the team to give him one (hurts his market value). Boras will do what is best for his client with his client’s stated objectives in mind. My guess is that no QO is extended and Hoskins signs a 3 year, $40-45 m contract with some team that needs a DH bat or, failing that, a pillow contract. I could see him ending up with a team like the Rangers or Angels. The Phillies just do not have room for him unless they move Castey and, let’s be real, with his huge postseason, he’s staying put.

            Like

            1. Whether Rhys deserves a QO or not….like I said…if the Phillies win the World Series in three weeks or so….will come down to the owner, and Middleton.
              And in his euphoria, will probably over-extend himself to Rhys out of respect, a generous heart and loyalty.
              Could be a QO or, hopefully not a LTC offering.
              I want the Phillies to win, but sure hope Middleton uses some restraint in his generosity.
              Same goes for Nola , if he pitches them to a WS win…..he may get that 8 year contract.

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            2. Middleton might be overcome with generosity but I really doubt DD will be so inclined.

              He’s been there before and is unlikely to allow sentiment to overwhelm his decision making.

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            3. 3up…….I have this gut feeling, if the Phillies win it all, I think Dombrowski will move on to his next reclamation, even with the extension, and hand over the reigns to Sam Fuld.
              He could be a one of those guys that wants challenges, that thrives in building up teams. My gut has been wrong before….hope it is wrong again.

              Like

      3. Boras knows it’s a business. He’s not giving the Phillies any discounts for his clients so the Phillies shouldn’t have to give him any favours. Rhys should walk.

        Like

  56. Using a 6 man rotation for the last 2 months really helped the starting rotation stay fresh. Wheeler velo has stayed steady with good life. Nola and Ranger as well.

    Like

  57. Just saw on CBS site that all the baseball guys are picking the Phillies in the NLCS. Most are going with 5 or 6 games. Only one has it going the distance. Hope they are right.

    Like

    1. That worries me. Traditionally, Philly teams do better as the underdog. Granted, that didn’t help the Fish in round 1.

      Like

  58. I’m a dissenter I’m afraid. I like Rhys the person, he was a good soldier, a good bat, but not a good first basemen. I actually believe his indecision on letting the ball play him caused his injury. I believe the Phillies are a better team going forward with Harper at 1B. Boras is not going to give anything to the Phillies or DD, its not in his MO.

    Like

    1. Skeet…….put yourself in Boras’ shoes.
      Rhys has less value coming off that injury and year long hiatus from the game. So Boras will not get what he thinks he wants.
      Look what happened with Conforto. He lost all of 2022. Mets QO him but he had that shoulder injury but Boras claimed he could still play in 2022.
      I think he may want a QO for Rhys to prove himself for a 2025 free agent market.
      I agree with you…Harper should stay at 1B and lets move on.
      But John Middleton is the boss……and if the Phillies win the World Series
      now…he may want Rhys back for another year.

      .

      Like

  59. Some interesting games notes to mention before we mentally move onto the NLCS.

    Top of 9th, 2 outs, runners on 1st & 3rd, in a 3-1 game …
    One out needed:
    Batter: a AAA minor leaguer
    Get him out, series over
    If he gets on? Likely 3-2 or a walk to load the bases …
    On deck: The league MVP … who was due

    Pretty crazy moment that still felt in control. Very glad that Acuna didn’t get an opportunity to come up with the bases loaded for the second time

    I’ve said this before, but I’ll mention it again. Grissom was the batter, he was expected to replace Swanson. The braves are watering down their talent levels. If you swap out Arcia/Grissom for Swanson… Olson for Freeman… I think it’s a much more competitive series… but hey… the Braves have payroll flexibility! Saved
    Some money. I’ll take the brand names over the econo buys in the playoffs.. unless they have the “it” factor … clearly they didn’t. Phillies are leaps ahead of the Braves in playoff roster construction.

    What a time to be a Phillies Phan!

    Like

    1. Swanson’s on a team that choked their way out of a playoff spot, and he was a big part of it hitting .173/.271/.327 in the last 2 weeks of the season.

      Freeman went 1-12 (with a single, 2 BBs, and a GIDP) in their only playoff series.

      I’ll agree that Swanson is the better player than Arcia by a lot, and that Freeman is better overall than Olson. But Olson is younger than Freddie, and Olson is absolutely NOT a “generic brand” player. He’s a brand name player through and through. As for Swanson, he was given 7/$177 on the back of ONE exemplary season. And I’m just not buying that either/both of those two change anything for the Braves in this series. Their respective performances in their own high pressure situations were abysmal, plus… we literally beat the Braves with Dansby on the team LAST YEAR. He did zilch.

      Like

      1. Giving Swanson 7/177 is risky but at least for 1 season, the Cubs got more than their money’s worth as Swanson posted 4.8 WAR. How will this contract look 2-3 years later, we’ll see.

        Like

        1. I still think Swanson And Mr Brave (Freeman) are more clutch & better team chemistry than Arcia/Olson. Not saying the Phils don’t win the series, but I’d bet it would’ve be more runs from the braves. Braves FO got good deals, in replacing the players but the cost to me is a watered down product in the playoffs. I’d rather have a shorter window with a stronger team. Freeman has been facing Nola for years, not Olson. I could go on but ultimately want I’m trying to say is that the braves may have extended their playoff windows with these deals, but with a weaker team. They definitely should have bough freeeman back imo. Swanson okay, but i also think we are seeing a weaking of the braves farm system. Will see. Either way, it’s awesome to beat them again. Winning the series has completely ruined their historic season. Everyone is moaning from players to FO to fans. It’s glorious!

          Like

          1. The Braves have developed their fair share of prospects, that is no doubt, but it’s really not something that you can do consistently. You will eventually have prospects that bust (happens to ALL teams) and then you’ll have to go to FA to fill in the gaps. For some reason, Braves ownership do not want to spend the money so they are depending heavily on their prospects, especially on the pitching side. The Braves are probably promoting their pitching prospects a lot earlier than they want to, and some of them are busting.

            Like

            1. You make a good point, Guru, but the Braves did sign some free agents, for example ex phil Travis D’arnaud, Morton, and William Contreras. And they obviously have done brilliantly with international free agents such as Acuna and perhaps in the future Luis Guanipa. The loss of Max Fried, Kyle Wright and Morton may have been the biggest factor. I don’t want to think how the Phils would have done if they had lost any two of their three top pitchers

              Like

  60. Friday Nite Lights from the Arizona Fall League
    “Phillies: Oliver Dunn, 3B ..Dunn continued his hot streak, collecting three hits and an RBI for Scottsdale. The infielder didn’t limit his solid play to the batter’s box either, swiping a pair of bases as well. With nine hits in five games, Dunn is batting .450, the fourth-best mark in the Fall League. The 26-year-old set numerous career highs offensively for Double-A Reading in 2023, hitting 21 homers, driving in 78 runs and posting a .902 OPS to earn a spot on the Eastern League’s postseason All-Star squad.”
    ……..he must be in the Phillies’ plans for 2024 at LHV.

    Like

    1. Dunn is a very old prospect, but he has hung in there and performed well. He’s a guy you keep around and see what happens. I love that this team has been excellent at identifying the best second chance prospects. That’s how we got Jeff Hoffman, Cave and Wade Wilson. This is an excellent and new organizational focus. Something the Klentak group totally ignored.

      Like

      1. The best part about having Deadpool in your organization is that he’ll always be available as an injury replacement. If he gets hurt himself, the injury will just heal itself immediately.

        Like

      2. If you can throw hard, teams will always give you chances, no matter your age. Kirby Yates had an elite season as a reliever at age 31 and he had a decent season for the Braves at age 36. For whatever reason, something clicked for Hoffman and the Phillies are benefiting.

        The Phillies thought Cave could help them and he got into 65 games which is a lot for a bench player, mostly in LF and 1B. But with the arrival of Rojas pushing Marsh to LF and Harper manning 1B, he hasn’t played as much and you don’t want him to play that much anyways.

        Wilson is a great story but nobody is giving him a starting job. He should go into ST hunting for a bench job but it’s going to be a fight. Pache is a lock and Sosa should be a lock (unless the Phillies feel that he’s too expensive since he’s already in arbitration). Castro and Wilson might be battling it out for the final bench spot.

        Like

        1. Why is Pache a lock? I understand they see potential, but how much time must pass before Pache becomes passet? I mean, I see no bat……and I’m not endeared to Cave either for that matter.

          Castro, I put in the same category as Pache except I’d grant him a season at LHV to show whatever it is that he’s supposed to have. I don’t believe he’s a 2nd basemen from what I’ve seen.

          Post season, I think the bench can and should be upgraded. I know the argument, who are they going to bat for, but the answer is, when they are playing a position “themselves”.

          Perhaps, some of these guys can be throw ins when DD goes hurler shopping!

          Like

          1. Pache is still pre-arbitration, he’s elite defensively at 3 OF spots, and he had a .924 OPS vs LH pitching.

            Like

      1. Sosa is primarily SS/3B. Dunn looks to be mainly 2B (9 errors at Reading), but he has played some 3B. Note that Dunn has played very limited time at AAA, I think he’s headed there to begin next season. He would have to rake at ST to make the team.

        Like

        1. So many people are missing the point. The point is not how likely it is that someone like Wade Wilson makes the team next year. The point is that if you keep scouting well and bringing in good second chance candidates, you’re going to get your share of hits and those hits are going to provide excellent value in relation to their cost to the franchise. It’s another important aspect of building a championship organization.

          Like

          1. It’s only going to matter if they can be starters, because starters get the bulk of the playing time. You can have the best bench ever but if your starters are terrible, you’re not making the playoffs. So the second chance candidates have to be starters. People talk about second chance candidates like Justin Turner and Max Muncy but you’re getting value out of them because they are starters, not because they are bench players. Dunn and Wilson are not starting over Stott/Turner/Harper, so unless they can start over Bohm (which I doubt), it’ll only be a great story if they are bench players.

            And I can’t stress this enough, the team will go only as far as the starters will take them. Stubbs had a fantastic 2022 as JT’s backup. But since he’s the backup, he only got into 46 games and contributed 1.1 WAR.

            If the team wants value, they need to convert second chance candidates into starters like Jayson Werth who eventually became a starter.

            So Wilson/Dunn making the team next season would be interesting, but if they’re bench players they will barely move the needle toward the success of the 2024 Phillies.

            Like

            1. It’s not just about starters, it’s about important bp pieces (Hoffman – an 2 WAR player). and guys who may be good enough to be capable replacements if starters are injured. This is a sound organizational approach – it’s not an irrelevant side show.

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            2. Relievers are very hit or miss. You’re just trying to get as many as you can into ST or sign minor league deals and hope that they can catch lightning in a bottle. That’s why relievers who throw hard get 3rd/4th/5th chances. You’re just hoping for the best. Hoffman was on his 3rd team by the age of 30.

              Capable backups are another story. There’s a reason why they are backups. They may look good for short periods but they usually get exposed once they play more. Edmundo Sosa (who’s only 27 and around the same age as Wilson/Dunn) is a very capable backup but you don’t want to see him start for too long. If Trea gets hurt for a month, Sosa is not going to fill in that gap. Sosa may look decent, but he’s not going to replicate what Trea will give you. And that’s my point. No matter how good backups are, they can’t replace starters.

              Now I’m not saying that the Phillies shouldn’t try to get the best backups they can get. They need to have a decent glove and be competent with the bat to a certain extent. But debating whether one backup is better than the other, in the grand scheme of things, won’t matter. Whatever the Phillies decide with their backups, I’m good with. They still won’t play enough anyways.

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            3. I know that relievers are hit and miss. That’s why you load the system with arms. I don’t get your criticism with their approach at all.

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            4. I don’t have a problem with the Phillies approach toward relievers. But you make it sound like the Phillies are doing something different, but they are doing what all other teams are doing. All teams are trying to stockpile arms and see what happens.

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            5. Disagree – during the Klentak era they did a horrible job picking up second chance prospects – they essentially avoided them. Their scouting other players has dramatically improved.

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            6. Here’s how I view the “second chance” prospect issue.

              First, on virtually every minor league team there is room for at least a few non-traditional prospects. On any given minor league team, there are usually only a few real prospects (typically, 3 or 4, and if you’re lucky, 5 or 6) who have a real chance at becoming contributing (not a cup of coffee) prospects. In short, there is plenty of space on virtually every roster to take on a number of low-risk (minor league salaries are peanuts), good upside prospects.

              You don’t need a lot of those prospects to “hit” for this to be a good investment. Most will fail, a few will become contributors (Jeff Hoffman) and fewer still will become regulars. Of course, you hope you strike gold and get a regular like Jayson Werth, but remember that Werth started out as a role player and earned the starting role over 2 seasons. But you don’t need to land a Jayson Werth for this approach to be productive. Jeff Hoffman was an afterthought, but he ended up being one of the most valuable parts of the bullpen. Wilson and Cave didn’t do that much at the big league level, but it had been years since we had anyone good and experienced in the minors to even consider as a back-up and, of course, Pache is a classic second-chance prospect, has intriguing upside, and is useful even if he just becomes a 4th outfielder. The point is that these guys are useful or more and you need good scouting to find these guys.

              And we think, well, this is no big deal, but it is. The Klentak administration was just terrible at finding these under-the-radar guys who add value to the organization.

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            7. Wonder where the Dodgers would be without hitting on Justin Turner and Max Muncy.
              Very important to find those players to a teams’ success.

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            8. First, I don’t consider relievers part of the equation as a second chance prospect. Hoffman is already 30, and the Reds took a chance on him before the Phillies and had him on their roster for 2 years. With relievers, you just grab as much as you can and hope for the best. Every team does this. The Reds did it with Hoffman before us. Hoffman just so happened to be productive for us, not so much for the Reds. Just last season the Phillies took a chance on Familia and Norwood. 2 years ago it was Coonrod. We all know how that played out, but you’re going to keep on trying.

              I’m not saying that the Phillies shouldn’t go after second chance prospects. They definitely should. I had no issues with the Phillies picking up Edmundo Sosa last year and Pache in March. But even if they become the best bench ever, it won’t matter since they’re bench players. In order for the Phillies to get true value for them, they need to improve to the point to be starters, to play meaningful minutes. The Phillies won in 2008 with Werth as the starter not Werth as the bench player.

              The Dodgers wouldn’t be the same team if Muncy and Turner were bench players and getting 150 ABs each. They became starters and put up meaningful WAR.

              Can Weston Wilson be that guy to graduate from bench to starter? It’s doubtful, but even if he can, it likely won’t be for the Phillies. Which starter is he going to replace?

              I was rooting for Sosa to improve so that perhaps he can take over for SS but of course his opportunity was gone once the Phillies signed Trea. I’m still rooting for Pache to improve so that maybe he can take over RF in the future.

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  61. Some interesting games notes to mention before we mentally move onto the NLCS.

    Top of 9th, 2 outs, runners on 1st & 3rd, in a 3-1 game …
    One out needed:
    Batter: a AAA minor leaguer
    Get him out, series over
    If he gets on? Likely 3-2 or a walk to load the bases …
    On deck: The league MVP … who was due

    Could there be a bigger contrast?!?!

    Pretty crazy moment that still felt in control. Very glad that Acuna didn’t get an opportunity to come up with the bases loaded for the second time

    I’ve said this before, but I’ll mention it again. Grissom was the batter, he was expected to replace Swanson. The braves are watering down their talent levels. If you swap out Arcia/Grissom for Swanson… Olson for Freeman… I think it’s a much more competitive series… but hey… the Braves have payroll flexibility! Saved
    Some money. I’ll take the brand names over the econo buys in the playoffs.. unless they have the “it” factor … clearly they didn’t. Phillies are leaps ahead of the Braves in playoff roster construction.

    What a time to be a Phillies Phan!

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  62. Tac. I never know if my post will go or not. You are fine.
    BTW just saw on ESPN that all the baseball guys but one Schoenfeld are picking the Phillies. Most are in 5 games. Not sure there with the 2-3-2 format. Hope all but one is right. In his original pick Schoenfeld had Orioles and Phils in WS.

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  63. I just returned from the shop at CBP, which was mobbed at opening. My goal was some birthday playoff swag for my younger son (a Navy officer currently stationed in Seattle.) and a Suarez shirt for myself. The only Ranger shirts were in small and x-large, and his was in the shelf stack with minor players like Sosa. And they’d just had a big run on Suarez shirts, for which they were (bizarrely, IMHO) unprepared. How, after last year’s playoffs Suarez was held at the same merchandise level as a backup catcher and utility infielder just blows my mind.

    WTF Phillies? I mean, they had AN ENTIRE RACK OF LORENZEN SHIRTS. And there was almost no Castellanos gear, and Rojas was completely sold out. But if you wanted the shirts of almost ANY non-Latin player, you had your choice of styles: Harper, Schwarber, Turner, et al., out the proverbial whazoo. I mean, they had lots of Bohm gear!!

    So I’ll be proudly rocking a Thomson shirt Monday night. I might as well go with the guy my age.

    You just maybe think that if more people who aren’t of European descent worked at CBP there might be a little more balance in their gear sales? You can’t get a Suarez shirt ANYWHERE!

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    1. That is an interesting point. It’s possible he could be GG material with his work ethic, but I would be very happy with any positive dWar at 1B. The Phillies haven’t had positive dWar from their 1B since 2005(!) I believe.

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  65. FYI. Phils vs Braves replay of game 3 now on MLB. 3rd inning. Big inning coming up. I ordered me a game hat that the guys had on after the game yesterday.

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  66. FYI. Phils vs Braves replay of game 3 now on MLB. 3rd inning. Big inning coming up. I ordered me a game hat that the guys had on after the game yesterday.

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  67. For anyone not aware, Nick Castellanos has become internet famous not for how many HRs he hits, or for how far they travel. Liam’s dad is talked about for when he has hit them. It really is an unbelievable coincidence that Castellanos has a history of going deep at some of the most awkward moments. Twitter links don’t produce the actual tweet on here anymore, but you can click below to navigate to the story. It’s pretty wild.

    https://x.com/bobhille/status/1712518192453529963?s=20

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    2. Hah, I just had to explain this phenomenon to my dad a couple weeks ago.

      One of those funny coincidence things that you’ll think about every time he homers after you know about it.

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  68. Gave 4 Phillies vs Braves on MiLB now.
    Think it has a good ending for Phillies.
    Strider does really throw hard.

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  69. Hinkie – Talking about opportune time, I recall the afternoon game late in the
    regular season last year during a series in Atlanta. The Phillies, I think, had lost a couple to the Braves and Castellanos was slumping badly but he came up in the 8th (?) inning and hit a two run homer to put them ahead 2-1 and win the game.

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  70. That’s the whole thing right there.. we have killers.. murders of baseballs… and spotlight seekers.. nobody really wilts in any moments.. Nola was my biggest worry in that department but he’s stepped up and switched on the extra gear that’s needed in postseason…. not sure how it pans out but glad to see him perform well and bolster his future/value as bad playoff performances will cost millions for sure

    what’s the thoughts on sanchez.. doesn’t his stuff play better against the dbacks.. seemed they went all gas against the braves and rightfully so… dbacks are rolling and sometimes you got to speed bump a team like that.. sanchez’s change is a hell of a pitch to not deploy in some fashion moving forward

    hows rhys doing.. power bench bat would look might nice about now

    keep the foot on the gas and cleats on the throats

    8 more

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    1. Out of that list, I think Cave will definitely not be offered. I think the Phillies are happy with Sosa and Covey so I think they both will be offered. As for Stubbs, we’ll see how much the Phillies value Marchan.

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  72. BR is saying that Suarez is a FA in 2026, where as Cots is saying 2027. Not sure who’s right, but I’m leaning towards BR.

    The Phillies should definitely think about offering him a 4 year deal and buying out 2 of his FA years. Perhaps something like 4/40 or even 5/50 and see if he’ll bite.

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      1. That’s where we should be, in the 3 year neighborhood.

        I think you get in the playoffs consecutively and there is a tendency to want to keep everyone. Rhys has been mentioned in that regard.

        Gillick always wanted to inject new blood, I believe he was right.

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        1. Skeet…Suarez is controlled for the next two years…’24 and ’25….a three year deal would buy out his next two years and his first free agent year. I think he would sign that,realizing at the end he will be only 31 years old going into his first free agency market.
          Does that benefit the Phillies in the long term?
          The AAV would be smaller than a 5 year deal, however you lose him earlier to free agency, but the QO option is still on the table after that third year.

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          1. They should pay him decent money to tie him up for 4 or 5 years. If they don’t, I think they will regret it. But 3 years is better than year-to-year.

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    1. I’ve been saying it for a while. Signing Ranger is almost as big of a priority as signing the #2 starter for next year (whether that be Nola or someone else and it will happen because that starting depth has been the difference in the team’s two WS runs – book it).

      Liked by 1 person

  74. For what it’s worth….Everytime the camera turns towards the Philies dugout this post season I see Tijuan Wlaker on the top steps with a smile and rooting on his teammates. Now I know their is no room for egos in playoff baseball yet, I just want to give a shout out to Walker who has been passed over (rightly so) but is passionately supporting his team.

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    1. Walker could still have a role, at least for one game, in a seven game series. This we know….he is well rested, though probably a bit rusty.

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    2. I don’t want to sound mean, but . . . personally, I think he’s a little relieved.

      That said, I expect him to be named the G4 starter (I could be wrong, but based on Topper’s history, I don’t think so), but they cannot afford a typically Taijuan 1st and 2nd inning implosion, so I expect Christopher Sanchez will be ready to warm up starting in the first inning. I just don’t see Topper going with Sanchez in Game 3 and then going lefty again in G4, especially with a rookie, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Sanchez came in during the early innings.

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  75. Also took a deeper dive into the D-Backs roster. My initial impression was that they are not all that good and are just hot. But having probed a bit, I don’t think that’s right. I think they are similar to last year’s Phillies. They aren’t all that deep, but they have some real stars and the top of their rotation is good and so is the bullpen. They are built to play better in the playoffs than the regular season, and they’ve done just that. I think their luck runs out in this series, but it could go longer. I’m predicting the Phillies in 6.

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    1. The DBacks are a talented team but very young and inexperienced. Corbin Carroll is an absolute stud and makes the team go, the Phillies need to keep him in check.

      Outside of their 2 top starters, they are absolutely vulnerable so the Phillies need to take care of business at home if they want to win early.

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  76. Agree with both of you. I think the DBacks have 2 good SPs, Gallen is really good, and Carroll can flat out play. Walker and Marte are good hitters. I think we are the better team, with a distinct Game3 SP advantage, and we have more depth. We need to pitch Carroll smartly like we did with Acuna. I believe that Schwarber joins the HR party, and Bohm has much better ABs vs Gallen than he did Strider! Can’t wait for the game, and a big Win tonight!

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  77. Matt, I hope your prediction is correct again. Looking forward to the game tonight. Hoping the Phillies can keep things going. Even though this is a 7-game series I think grabbing an early lead in the series is crucial. Need to try to put a stop to the momentum that the DBacks have gained so far. Plus having the middle three games in Arizona adds more need for a couple wins at the Bank to open the series. Go Phils.

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  78. Hearing a lot about Carroll, Walker and Marte when people talk about the Dbacks. I think people are forgetting/unaware of some of the other pieces in their lineup.

    Gurriel and Pham have been almost as, if not as solid of hitters as Walker/Marte. Moreno, Perdomo and Thomas are also pretty hot and add power to that lineup. Moreno specifically worries me the most. Longoria also gives them some playoff experience (hopefully we treat him like we did when he was on the Rays in ‘08, but I could also see revenge being an extra motivating factor for him.)

    Rotation is exploitable but Pfaadt was a top pitching prospect for the Dbacks and looked the part in his last start against the struggling Dodgers.

    I still think the Phillies have more talent, but if they come out in this series overlooking this team like the Eagles did yesterday against the Jets, we could be in trouble.

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    1. Agree…cannot take them lighly. They are inexperinced but as underdogs they may thrive on that. And Pham always scares me, seems he comes out of nowhere and gets key hits……do not need any more Cody Ross’.
      Nola scheduled for tomorrow….off and on rain showers in the forecast, hopefully they can get the game in

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  79. Phils in 5. Best case 4, worst case 6. I don’t see the Phillies coming unfocused, or taking this team for granted. This team has been thinking this since the game 6 loss last year. 8 more wins.
    DBacks could be hot, buuuuuutttt have they faced a Wheeler yet? Seen a bullpen with 5+ arms over 98mph? It’s going to be tough for them, but the Phillies will win this. I expect Bohm to hit better, he had a really tough time versus strider. Schwarber will be joining the party as well, which mins Castellanos probably cools down. That’s fine. Plenty of power. Rojas likely joins the hit parade as well.

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    1. If Nola is asking for that much, then he probably feels that he’s underpaid right now and he’s trying to get some of the money back. But he’s not going to come close to that after posting a 2 WAR season, which is totally on him.

      If the Phillies only wanted to give a 4 or 5 year deal (which is responsible money management), I doubt the Phillies will give 6 years and definitely not 7 years. I still think he gets more than Rodon (probably 6/175) and he’ll walk.

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      1. If he continues his postseason performance at roughly the same level it will wipe the slate clean on the mediocre year and some front office exec will see in Nola what he wants to see. I think he gets paid, big time.

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  81. MLBTR talked of the Phillies offering to Nola 8 months ago.
    As I assumed…Nola’s camp wanted 7 or more years….Phillies offered fewe years, my guess 5 years with a mutual option buy-out year. to me, it looks like the AAV was around $28M.
    Not sure Nola will get 7 or more years from the Cardinals or whomever gets into the bidding.

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    1. Nola will get a huge contract. I doubt it will be with the Phillies (but not at all impossible). I also doubt he’ll be worth the last few years of the contract. But the Phillies need to be really careful with expiring contracts. It’s unclear where Harper will be when he’s 37 or 38 – but I’m not in the business of betting against him, nor do I want to be. However, I expect Turner’s last 3-4 years to be pretty bad. We don’t need another contract with 3 or 4 dead years.

      I sign Ranger and Wheeler to extensions and I look for a new #2. Snell would be pretty super here, even with his control issues. We’ll see.

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      1. Agreed…..Snell would be a nice signing…though the competition to sign him will be intense. I think the Mets may be players in that bidding war.

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      2. As I said with Wheeler – 3 years, $100 m. He’s worth it and, between the team absorbing the risk from an injury and his wanting to be here, I think it’s doable and it make sense for both sides. Ranger would be like 5 years and $65 million with a team option at the end. Win/win scenarios all around.

        I will say this, Hinkie’s prediction of 5 years/$110 million is almost certainly going to be very far off, both in terms of years and AAV. Your average front office executive and average baseball fan thinks much more highly of Nola than Philadelphians do. I am not saying we are entirely wrong (he really IS wildly inconsistent across years), but he’s very highly regarded and for good reason.

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  82. I like the demeanor/character of our team. I do not think they will take the DBacks lightly, in fact I believe they see quite a bit of their last season’s selves in the DBacks, and will not overlook them at all. I think we have overall better Pitching and more depth. That is the basis for my Phils victory prediction. Respect the DBacks, and think we are the better team, and will play better.

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  83. The weather will affect the games here. For the next 2 weeks Philadelphia will have a cooler-than-normal fall, which means the ball won’t carry and both teams with have to play station-to-station. That nullifies some of our power advantage. We need to focus on hitting the gaps in the outfield, not over the fences.

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    1. It’s less the cool air than the winds that sweep in from left field. I went to a playoff game in 2008 or 2009 (I forget which year, but I think it was 2009). Jayson Werth hit one of the hardest balls I’ve ever seen – on a July day with the air still it would have gone in Ashburn Alley for sure. But it was blown back severely and stayed in the air forever before it hit around the 409 sign in left-center. The winds when it is cold are very unfavorable for the hitters in CBP.

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      1. Would be nice to have a retractable roof this time of the year…..perhaps John Middleton can establish a GoFundMe, for it!

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