330 thoughts on “Preview to the 2023 Offseason Roster Moves (Phillies Discussion)”

1. The Minimum Salary is a lot of money! Also who do you see possibly coming up for the Phillies in 2024?

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2. I can’t imagine, Jim, how much effort this took. Thank You! I need hours to study it. We have a bunch of decisions to make. Just off the bat I think we give a QO to Nola and not one to Rhys. I say this as a huge Hoskins fan. His HR and bat spike off Strider in last year’s Playoffs is one of my favorite all time sports moments. But there is just no place unless Castellanos is traded and Harper goes back to RF. Anyway great W today despite defensive issues and hopefully a real learning experience for Rojas. He is a terrific CF, but clearly not perfect. Can’t wait to see Orion pitch and really happy that Alvarado looks like he is back. Sorry for the long winded comment to the new thread!

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3. Awesome information Jim, so its like 36 mill coming off the books, interesting off season decisions to make, specially cap wise.

   Is it possible to trade Castellanos or J.T. in the off season or is it just fantasy?

   I was hoping to see Kerkering as well, too bad things got complicated in the 7th.

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   1. The probability of the Phillies trading JT is virtually zero. Why would the Phillies even want to do that? Yes, JT is declining but he’s still a 3 WAR player. And the odds are really low that Marchan can come up and replace that type of production. JT has 2 more years left on his deal and he’ll be a starter in 2024.

      Trading Castellanos will largely depend on whether or not Bryce Harper wants to play RF next season. I previously mentioned that perhaps Rojas would be the odd man out (as a starter), I think it could be Marsh. Marsh hasn’t hit well this month and he has a .673 OPS vs lefties.

      It’s pretty much a given that Nola is gone. Somebody will give him a large multiyear deal, his past numbers and durability are too strong. The Phillies will attach a QO to him and he will decline it.

      I believe Rhys is also going elsewhere. Michael Conforto (another Boras client) missed all of 2022 due to injury and still managed to get 2/36 with the Giants. And he was coming off a poor season (0.8 WAR) in 2021. I believe Rhys can get something close to that in FA playing 1B/DH.

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      1. I see Rhys heading back to his home area….SF.
         Gabe likes him and they can use a bat in that lineup.

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4. Great report Jim. I am amazed that one of our best players is only earning $748,000 a year – WOW. Lesser players making more.

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5. Great work Jim…very detailed….like a Thesis of the Pre-2024 Phillies Operation Plan.
   Darick Hall listed as a ‘probable tender’…I think Dombrowski and crew will let him test the free agent waters…if nothing happens that he likes, then they could bring him back.

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   1. Sad day for you for sure! You and Darick been together for a long time.😊 ……..but before we move on, when is Harper going to carry the full load at 1B,?

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      1. Skeet…LOL……Harper should , IMO, be there for good beginning next season. I think he likes the action there, plus he must also like the chance to socialize with other players.

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         1. What to do with bullpen arms, I don’t want to give Kimbel. More than two yrs I don’t trust him.Dom what does he get?.imo you can’t put Castro. Rojas. And sosa together in lineup
            That is weak. Still don’t know if Rojas will hit enough. If they move Castellano., then bring Hoskins back on short deal, if possible.

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            1. I think I have the answer to what to do with bullpen arms. Use Orion Kerkering. His stuff is filthy.

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6. Great work Jim. Amazing detail.

   Imo there are two big decisions and the rest of the dominos fall from there:
   1. Re-sign Nola. I am firmly in the camp that they should match any offer unless it is way, way above market like DeGrom’s Texas offer last year. To those who don’t want to re-sign Nola, I ask, who will you replace him with in the FA market? I want names. Otherwise it isn’t a realistic view to just say don’t re-sign him.
   2. What’s Harper’s position? Personally, I like him at 1B going forward. But he will certainly have a say in it. As mentioned above, if he wants to play RF then we can re-sign Rhys and then have to dump Castellanos.

   Imo there is a very weak trade market for Castellanos. All other teams will view him as a DH. But $20m for 3 more years for a DH that is 32 next year is too much. So unless we eat at least half his contract, he won’t bring back any return. There are a lot of options for really cheap DHs on the FA market.

   My plan:
   1. Re-sign Nola. Rodon got 6/$27m AAV at 30. Nola will be 31. I give him 5/$27 AAV. Obviously I want a 4 year deal but I go to 5 to get it done. I think that he will age well as a pitcher.
   2. Make Harper our everyday 1B. I like him there. He is the most athletic 1B in the league. With a full offseason of training he could be elite there.
   2b. That said, if Harper wants to play RF instead of 1B then I re-sign Rhys and do what i can to trade Castellanos (even if we eat half his contract). I hope that we have learned our lesson that Schwarber can not play LF. He is a disaster out there. Schwarbs has to be the DH. The starting OF is Rojas in CF and Marsh in LF and Harper or ? in RF. Rojas wins a gold glove next year. To be that big of an impact at basically a free contract price is so valuable.

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   1. Marcus Stroman has a player option for 2024 which I think he will decline. Yes, he’s going to be 33 but he relies less on velocity and more on movement. I would consider giving Stroman 3/70 as a replacement for Nola.

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   2. Nola’s last start was good. And if the rest of his starts this year (including playoffs) are that good, then I’d be on board with giving him a market-value contract.

      But if he has another implosion start, I wouldn’t give him multiple years unless it’s discounted. I agree that Nola’s tools tend to age well. But I thought the exact same thing about Halladay, and now I’m worried that this is Nola’s year where his body might be falling apart on him.

      And yeah, Harper gets to dictate where he plays next season. He doesn’t have to worry about his market value, so it’ll be interesting to see where he wants to play. If he wants to go back to RF, he’ll be a below-average defender. But that will still be a huge improvement for us, so it should easily offset Rhys’ glove at first.

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      1. DanK….do not be enamored by a pitchers’ last starts…..good or bad.
         The whole body of work should be examined also.
         This season Nola ranks 28th of all starters in FIP @ 4. Not bad, but not exceptional.
         And 15th in fWAR….which is very good.
         He will get his LTC offers…not sure he will get that many that may have beaten the Phillies offer 6 months ago. We will never know.
         I am all for offering him the QO….doubt he takes it, but if he does great.

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         1. It’s less the starts and more that Nola is traditionally a good pitcher that regressed this year. BUT if he has a good stretch to end the year, that could very well mean he finally figured out what was wrong and fixed it.

            If he didn’t have such a stellar record, I’d assume a good stretch of starts is just a hot streak. But a guy with his past success suddenly becoming very average is odd, so I’d be more inclined to believe that him having a good stretch is a return to his true abilities.

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            1. Looks like he has one more start in the regular season, and Tuesday vs Buccos….then the second game of the play-offs. I guess many people will begin formualting more of an opinion after that play-off game start.

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               1. Do we see Orion Kerkering pitch on Tuesday and in the playoffs?

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7. You have such a WONDERFUL Phillies BLOG!!!!! I LOVE this!!!!

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8. Not saying I don’t re-sign Nola, but how about Blake Snell? I don’t honestly know what to do about Nola. He has not pitched well and a LTC is scary. I am a big Hoskins fan but I think he goes, Harper plays 1B and Castles stays in RF. And Marchan is my back up C.

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   1. matt…I have said in the past…..go out for Snell, and QO Nola.
      Once Nola rejected the Phillies offer prior to spring training, I would move on.
      Phillies do not go cheap on offers, especially I would think for a home-grown exceptional career starter like Nola. I do not know what the offer’s AAV or length was but more than likely it was more than Wheeler’s AAV.

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      1. Blake Snell is an interesting case. In 8 years, he’s had 2 elite years (7.1, 5.7 WAR) and the rest has been replacement level (none higher than 2.1 WAR). He’s going to get paid but there’s no middle ground in the type of seasons he has. Giving him a 7 year deal is extremely dicey.

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9. We should definitely be in on any quality starting pitching, beyond 2024 when Wheeler walks we are gonna be in dire situation pitching wise, specially after Painter’s TJ, and Abel’s recent struggles.

   Regarding Abel it seems the pitching lab or whatever did wonders on him, he looks like the pitcher we imagined he would become. (small sample size)

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   1. Why is wheeler walking?

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      1. Big Wheeler keep on rolllin’

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      2. resigning him could be an option, he seems to be aging a la Verlander

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10. 47238 is Romus safe deposit box number

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11. Who do we want to face in the 1st round of the playoffs? I would like the Reds. Don’t want to see the Marlins.

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    1. Marlins don’t scare me.

       https://www.mlb.com/news/sandy-alcantara-2023-season-over?partnerID=web_article-share

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       1. How do the Marlins not scare you? They are a really good team!

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          1. Yes they are. We are better.

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             1. Are you ready for the Phillies to go to the postseason? #REDOCTOBER!!!!!!!!!!

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12. Richard Orion Kerkering with an awesome MLB debut! Wow! Great job! Congrats!

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    1. Kerkering’s slider is as advertised. It’s a plus pitch, it’s as good as David Cone or Dave Stieb’s slider.

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    2. His debut was ABSOLUTELY PERFECT!! He threw one of his pitches at 100 MPH! His dad was tearing up the whole time.

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13. Guru I also heard he has a high 90’s FB and hit 100 tonight. Really looks like a great arm. Any question that he should be on the Playoff roster? And Lorenzen pitched very well!

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    1. Hoskins won’t be ready for the wild card round so Kerkering is in for sure. And yes, he threw 1 fastball for 100. His slider was moving everywhere. It was an impressive debut.

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14. So awesome to watch this.

    https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1706118153720270996?s=20

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15. My question is this kid lasted to fifth round. Why? With his stuff what was the red flag? I am not saying he is a hall of famer, But with that arm, velo and slider, why didn’t someone take him earlier?

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    1. rocco….he couldn’t make it as a starter at S.Florida….soph year he eventually became a reliever and was good….last year tried starting again…was very poor for some reason. He seem to have less control as a starter than an one or two inning reliever.

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       1. ty

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16. Does anyone think that Christopher Sanchez could be a #4 or #5 next year for us? Might dispel the Blake Snell calls and save $ for other needs.

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    1. Sanchez has done enough to secure a rotation spot for next season. Unless he implodes in ST, he’s a lock to be in there.

       2024 Rotation under contract: Wheeler(1), Walker(3), Suarez(2), Sanchez

       The number in parentheses is how many years remaining so Wheeler will be a FA in 2025.

       Primary Lehigh depth: Mick Abel, Nick Nelson (if he’s tendered a contract). I think Matt Osterberg will be at Lehigh soon enough.

       Andrew Painter won’t be available until 2025.

       The wild card is Griff McGarry. Nobody knows how 2024 will go for him. Is he going to be a viable starter? Reliever? Can he control his walks?

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    2. Like Falter last year yes Sanchez has done enough to be the 5th starter next year.

       Nothing against Snell he’s a really good pitcher but let someone else go overboard on a contract for him. It almost never works out on those FA pitchers with long term big money deals.

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17. It just can’t be said enough that Jim produces the most detailed content out there on a whole. In my best Wayne’s World voice “We’re not worthy”

    Phillies sweep the Mutts, Cowboys lose and hopefully we cap off a stellar weekend with an Eagles win tonight!

    The front office has its work cut out for it no doubt. On one hand the fans love this team and they show up in droves to support it at CBP. OTOH it can’t ignore the fact that it finished way behind the Braves for the division at a much steeper payroll.

    And all 9 positions (DH) on the field are locked up. So which one of those 9 positions do you want to disrupt or turn over.

    Now this team is very capable of winning the WS at which point no one will care what the FO does to the roster for 2024.

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18. DMAR……”And all 9 positions (DH) on the field are locked up. So which one of those 9 positions do you want to disrupt or turn over.”…every year is a brand new season…… the Greek philosopher Heraclitus said, “the only constant in life is change.”
    Obvioulsy players will move on…..the one who has really become an attractive piece now is Castellanos….by eating a portion of his salary the Phillies could get top end pitcher or a MLB -ready pitching prospect under team control for years.
    If Cubbies lose Bellinger to free agency, maybe they would bite on Castellanos for Cade Horton….or bring back Ben Brown.

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    1. I think you’re giving too much value to Castellanos. He’s going to be 32, he’s still owed 3/60, and he’s a DH playing RF. You’re not going to get Ben Brown, and you certainly won’t be getting back Cade Horton who happens to be the #29 prospect in baseball.

       At best, you’ll get a lotto ticket guy in high A, like maybe Jackson Ferris but probably closer to Michael Arias of the Cubs.

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       1. Jackson Ferris would do.
          And the money, Phillies probably would need to eat a percentage of his contract.

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       2. 30 hrs. 106 rbi. And we don’t want him. Amazing

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          1. rocco…….be gone with him!
             What if Harper wants fo go back out to RF next season.

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       3. We would get nothing from Castellanos unless we ate half of his contract.

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19. Is Kerkering eligible for the post season roster? I thought you had to be on the 40 man roster by 9/1 to be eligible.

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    1. Found this, so I guess it is possible

       In a typical season, any player who is on the 40-man roster or 60-day injured list as of 11:59 p.m. ET on Aug. 31 is eligible for the postseason.

       Those on the restricted list at that point are also eligible if they haven’t been suspended for performance-enhancing drugs during that season. (All players who have served a suspension for PEDs in a given season are ineligible for postseason play that year.)

       A player who doesn’t meet said criteria for postseason eligibility can still be added to a team’s roster in the postseason via petition to the Commissioner’s Office if the player was in the organization on Aug. 31 and is replacing someone who is on the injured list and has served the minimum amount of time required for activation. (For example, a player on the 10-day injured list who has been on it for at least 10 days, or a player who has been on the 60-day injured list for at least 60 days.) Players who are acquired in September or after are ineligible.

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       1. He’s eligible because he’s replacing Rhys Hoskins, who’s hurt. Now if Rhys Hoskins comes back in the playoffs, then Kerkering won’t be eligible I believe.

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20. I saw that Joey Votto just finished a 10/225 contract. So over those 10 years, he posted 28 WAR which is pretty much what the Reds paid for. They paid him to be a 3 WAR player and that’s pretty much what he delivered. The bulk of his WAR was earned in the first 5 years (22.9) and his last 5 was obviously rough (5.1).

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21. Question – McCarthy said after the 6th, during the Phils/Mets game yesterday that it was now an official game…. Did they change the official game rules? I dont believe so, and it was either an error by McCarthy or I’m going crazy. Probably both, but looking for confirmation that I didn’t miss a rule change.

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    1. A game is official after 5 innings (after the top of the 5th if the home team is leading, after the bottom if not). So he wasn’t saying that it had just become official, but that it was already official. He brought it up then because it was starting to rain again, so there was a chance they would have to stop play and then they wouldn’t resume it because the game was already official.

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       1. Thanks Dan, I didn’t think the rule changed. That was the other example I was thinking it could be… if not I was going after his job 🙂

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22. Nola has way too many innings on an arm that is showing to be regressing. Sanchez is absolutely in your starting rotation in 2024. You give Nola the QO and recoup the pick when the Cards sign him.

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    1. It’s a shame we’d only get a 4th rounder bc we are over the “salary cap.”

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       1. Maybe the Phillies ought to ask for an extra 5th rounder instead of the 4th rounder…their success on 5th round picks has been very good.

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          1. even Bailey Falter made it as an MLB pitcher – not easy

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23. When the Phillies went down to Sarasota this spring to face the Baltimore Orioles, and they beat up the Phillies….I thought, only a spring training game, they still are the O’s. Boy, was I wrong.
    Their rise to first place in the AL-East has been meteoric.
    2021…….52-110
    2022…….83-79
    2023…….97 wins or more

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    1. When you find the right person to lead your rebuild this is what it looks like…

       Elias deserves a lot of credit and Hyde has been a very steady hand in guiding these youngsters into playing winning baseball.

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    2. Just an incredible rebuild and the young players are still coming and those that are there have a lot more upside. This is the best rebuild since the early 2010s Astros and certainly one of the best of my lifetime. They completely nailed it and they didn’t get greedy (and stupid) like the Padres and cannibalize the rebuild by trading a bunch of young players to assemble a competitive team as quickly as possible. They let it play out and even doubled down on the rebuild last year by trading away experienced players. The Orioles aren’t going away anytime soon.

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       1. Yeah…they did it the correct way.
          Makes me a litttle disheartened by the fact the Phillies seem to fall short or even waste to some, a half-decade bewteen 2013 and 2019 trying to get it right.

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24. I vote to sign Wheeler for an additional two-three years (for less than $25 M) per. I realize he is will be 34 next year but he is worth it.

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    1. It will cost 3 years and between $90-100 million – but still worth it.

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    2. A short term deal is going to take more than $25 AAV. Wheeler is excellent when his velo is sitting 97+ but if at any point that velo starts to dip he would be just average.

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       1. Yeah, that’s true. My guess is that, like any mid-30s pitcher, it’s probably safest to wait at least until the middle of next year to determine if you want to extend Wheeler. I mean if he gives you a bargain this offseason you might do it, but I doubt Wheeler agrees to that when he’s so far outperformed his current deal.

          On Nola, I just assume he will be moving on after declining a QO and he might pitch well someplace else. They will likely sign someone to replace him. That guy better be at least cheaper or better than Nola, or it will look foolish. Please, no more Taijuan Walkers. To me, one of the biggest sins in pro sports is overpaying a very average player. DD has done that at least twice (perhaps three times) in his short tenure here, with TW and NC being the prime examples.

          I like Sanchez, he’s done a very nice job. But you need to see if he can keep it up – maybe he can next year but I don’t know. I am very big believer in Ranger Suarez and I think they should sign him to a 3-5 year contract as soon as they can. I think it will reap pretty large dividends over time and he can add a ton of stability to the team.

          As for Castellanos, I think Harper will return to right and, if so, there’s no room for him if you believe in Marsh and Rojas (as I do). This offseason is the time to move him – while someone will stay take that salary. Get a rental at first or give Hoskins a pillow contract. Schwarber moves to DH.

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    3. Unless Wheeler gets hurt, I believe the Phillies will re-sign him for at least 3/90. But I wouldn’t go 4 years (he’ll be 35 when he’s a FA). He still has premium velocity and I believe he likes it in Philadelphia.

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25. I’m counting 35.45 million coming off the books, not factoring in Arb raises.
    You also need to replace Nola, Kimbrel, and Hoskins… Technically you dont have to replace Hoskins if Harper stays at 1st.

    DD will have some fun sorting this out.
    Castellanos, and what you do with him is key imho.

    My key questions from now and until the Phillies win it all 🙂

    Does KerKering make anyone expendable? McGarry? Maybe even Kimbrel?
    Not counting any eggs hatched yet, but his jump has an impact today, and the immediate future.

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    1. Kerkering only makes McGarry expendable if they saw him as a relief pitcher (which he probably is long term, but not yet).

       But Kimbrel? Yeah, they’ll let him walk now (when a team inevitably offers him more money than they should). You gotta figure between Kerkering, Alvarado, and Seranthony, at least one of them will have a good enough year to be “the guy”.

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       1. DanK….McGarry probably has 1/2 year left as a starter in trying to prove he is MLB starter material—that has control….if not, then it comes down to master 2, maybe 3 of his best pitches and head over to the pen.
          I still believe Orion K. is better suited for relief than McGarry….right now.
          But McGarry could be a lights out reliever if he can get more control.
          He turns 25 next year….time is now for him to make his best move.

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26. I don’t think Kerkering makes anyone expendable and I don’t think you ever rely on an untested rookie to do anything but compete for a spot, no matter how good he looks in limited action (including the postseason).

    Again, I say move Castellanos. Harper is better in RF and Hoskins (or another 1B signing) will be cheaper than Casty so you save money and either break even or upgrade on offense and you dump the Casty contract moving forward.

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    1. I don’t think him on his own makes Kimbrel expendable, but his emergence plus the existence of Alvarado and Seranthony should give them the confidence to let Kimbrel walk (unless he wants to stay on a relative discount).

       You already know those two have the ability to be shut-down closers, so between the three of them you imagine at least one will have a good enough year to be considered Kimbrel’s “replacement.”

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       1. Interesting to think about SINCE it’s been such a long time since the Phillies have even been in this position. Think about it .. when’s the last time the Phillies have had an internal option to replace a high level player …?

          It was supposed to theoretically happen this year, with Nola & Painter, possibly Abel.. but the baseball gods laughed at us.

          The next chance is probably A. MILLER with Bohm.

          Other than that … it’s been few and far between. I guess technically it was Kingery over segura, but we know how that played out. Either way .. it’s rare.

          So one last curve ball….

          Does the emergence of KerKering & McGarry as a BP arm make Kimbrel expendable?

          Who you keeping if you can only keep one, and not replace with a FA or trade – have to replace internally

          Nola or Kimbrel ?

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          1. Kimbrel has had a bounce back year which is great, but he’s going to be 36 next year. If this was the Braves, you know that Kimbrel is gone. Unless Kimbrel wants to come back on a reduced salary, the Phillies should let him walk. Let the saves be split between Kerkering and Alvarado.

             Right now, there’s no way that we can depend on McGarry for anything. He needs to go hard this offseason and show up in ST a changed man.

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             1. If Kimbrel does not come back I can almost guarantee they will sign another veteran arm who can close (even if he isn’t signed to exclusively be a closer). In fact I’d bet money on it.

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                1. And, when it comes to relievers, I’d rather have a guy too many than one guy too few. I’d rather not overpay for another reliever at the deadline if it isn’t necessary.

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27. Whatever happens I believe we have a pretty good team in place and under contract. I don’t think Fuld/DD need to go out and set the market this offseason. I think they can afford to let the market unfold and kind of come to them.

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    1. DMAR…if Nola walks they will feel the need to replace him in the rotation with an experienced quality arm.

       BTW on another separate note…..Marlins may just let Sixto walk if they feel his shoulder does not come around…he pitched one inning last week , threw 18 pitches and then was shut down for the year it appears. If he is released would you try to make him a reclamation project and bring him back into the Phillies org…turns 26 years old next season?

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       1. Very true. There are a number of guys you could make a run at Yamamoto for starters (I know its a long shot) but again he may be a guys that wants to blaze his own trail with an organization that has not had a Japanese star. If not you move on

          Sonny Gray I like as well as Montgomery, Stroman if he opts out would be my top targets just because they are pretty good pitchers that shouldn’t require super long term deals.

          I wouldn’t say no to a MiLB deal for Sixto but shoulders are pretty predictable injuries in a bad way.

          I also wouldn’t rule out Nola. Who knows the market may not be there in much the same way it wasn’t there for JT.

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          1. You list Gray, Montgomery and Stroman….I guess you would pass on Snell?
             I know there will be large market teams throwing money at him….I wonder if the Phillies will jump into the fray.

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             1. I believe Snell gets at least what Rodon received and yeah I wouldn’t do it. Not at age 30.

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                1. If you’re going to throw big money at someone, it might as well be somebody like Snell who, when he’s dominant, he’s phenomenal. Of course, I’m not giving him 8 or 10 years (more on that below), but if you want a guy who, along with Wheeler, can shut down the opposition in the playoffs – he’s your man. Add Abel next year and Painter the year after, with Ranger and Sanchez hanging around. That could be one heck of a rotation.

                   So, I’d love to have him. Just be prepared for DD to not only overpay him, but to give him a contract that is uncomfortably far too long. That’s just Dave being Dave.

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                2. The David Price contract comes to mind….as do a few others. Snell is a darn good pitcher though I just don’t think it would be wise.

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             2. Romus, Snell was on the Phillies’ radar at the trade deadline if the Padres were going to be sellers. They weren’t. I don’t see any reason why the Phillies wouldn’t still be interested.

                However, Snell will surely receive and decline a QO. I don’t know if that changes anything. Signing a player with a QO hasn’t been a deterrent recently. But, it should at least alter the equation and perhaps a different target is identified.

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       2. Romus, re: Sixto … no way. I don’t think he fits into the Phillies’ way. The Phillies have a Protect the Standard philosophy. I think Steve may have written about it during the season. Some of the things in it are things that Sixto didn’t have to adhere to even before the Standard was implemented. The Phillies are serious about it and some players have been released or suffered some other penalty for not following it. IMO, Sixto would have difficulty following rules he never had to follow and would again be more trouble than the Phillies want to deal with.

          Here are Steve’s two articles on the Standard.

          https://www.philliesbaseballfan.com/post/10-29-22-protect-the-standard

          https://www.philliesbaseballfan.com/post/7-17-23-protecting-the-standard

          And here’s a video from Phillies Player Development of Preston Mattingly talking to the most recent draft class.

          It takes everyone to protect the standard.

          Phillies Director of Player Development, Preston Mattingly, delivered that message to our 2023 Draft Picks last week in Clearwater. pic.twitter.com/r9xeH66aTx

          — Phillies Player Development (@PhilsPlayerDev) August 3, 2023

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          1. Thanks Jim….good stuff…Protect the Standard.
             I assume this is also presented to the newbie kids at the DR Academy as well.
             As for Sixto…can see the Phillies passing.

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28. Sorry not trying to spam …
    But playoff fever is here

    2022 Phils – 87 wins
    2023 Phils – 87 wins with 6 to play

    3-3 is reasonable to get to 90 wins
    I think 5-1 gets them to many of our predictions – 92 wins

    The Mess are guaranteed to finish to better than 24 games below their 2022 season total. Telling stat .. they are 15-34 vs left handed pitching. Glaring hole on their team construction. Worst in the league.

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29. Great article on Bryson Stott by Matt Gelb in the Athletic. First, I am a big Stott fan. I think he has had a terrific season, and played great at 2B. The article was about how he had a family wedding in Louisiana last January, and detoiured first to spend 3 days with Bobby Dickerson. doing footwork drills specific to 2B, chatting, and basically hanging out. But it helped Stott be more comfortable going into ST, and really made an impression on Dickerson, who is also a big Stott fan. To paraphrase him he said that Stott, from the first time they met, never acted like a 1st Rd “I’ve got this” guy, but more like a 20th Rd pick breaking his hump to make it, and one who just happens to have 1st Rd talent. Said alot about Dickerson and Stott.

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    1. Just as there are quite a few teenage boys in the Philly area named Chase…..I suspect there will be quite a few in the next decade or so being named Bryson.

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       1. Dogs too

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          1. Yeah….thats right, dogs too.

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          2. It only feels right to name a dog after Chase considering how much he loves them.

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       2. Hopefully not Johan.

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          1. Only really fleet dogs can be named Johan, maybe a Greyhound!

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       3. Romus you want more kids. At your age, God Bless

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          1. rocco….LOL
             That probably is highly unlikely..

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30. I’m an MLB fan first that happens to be a Phillies fan. I’m fascinated by the way certain clubs go about running their organizations. I’m fascinated by both failure and success.

    Learning the lessons of both hopefully makes the Phillies a stronger organization for future generations of fans to enjoy.

    The lessons I’ve learned since becoming a member of this site back in 2006 is that there is no substitute for a strong minor league system which will always be a by product of great minds from both the scouting and analytics departments being on the same page at every level of the system. And at times challenging each other on their thesis.

    Yeah you’ll always need to augment your club through free agency and trades and it helps to have an ownership group willing to spend when necessary on the right players.

    Whatever happens with this season the Phillies front office is coming to a major fork in the road. Hopefully they navigate it properly.

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    1. P.5……..aghhhh the “Fork” in the road with the Matinee Lady, Carol Wayne on the Johnny Carson show. Loved that skit!

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31. I think Kimbrel poses a difficult decision. DD signed him to be one of a number of pieces to close games – they even said in spring training they would try and give him save opportunities to get # 400. Through injuries, inconsistent play, he rises to the top of the pen to everyone’s surprise and has a “throwback” campaign. Now after a year of high wire saves, and some failures, he has begun to tire and is showing his age. But it doesn’t change DD’s original thought of having him as a solid piece – there is no reason to change that. Problem is – if he can continue to throw 95-97 he is still more effective than anyone available in free agency. Some team(s) may offer him a 2 year deal for 24 million ? If I am the Phillies I offer him one year for 13 but also wonder where and how do they find 25 saves ? He is too risky for 2 years but is too valuable to lose. While the other high pressure relievers are excellent – they don’t have the daily grit/experience of Kimbrel. Imagine what kind of a mentor he can be to young relief pitchers. I say, try and keep him – knowing that he is most likely to go to the highest bidder after all.

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    1. It is a tough decision, which is normally easy for the Phillies whose bullpen has stunk. So yes, bring him back. You also have KerKering emerging and possibly McGary next year. So do you roll the dice and let him go? If it was ATL, they come up roses. I’d bring him back. It never hurts to have an embarrassment of riches in the bullpen. 13 mil? More like 16 mil imo if you are going to make him forego a 2 yr 24 – 26 mil deal. He got 10 coming off a crap year. Not going to be cheap. I think we lose 1 of Nola, Hoskins, and Kimbrel. By lose, I mean, need a young guy to replace. Could lose Nola but sign a FA replacement. That’s not happening for all 3 imo

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       1. He will be lucky to get $10 million again (although he might). He’s not getting any younger.

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          1. You know… I change my answer. Time for the FO to have some gusto. I let Kimbrel walk, unless the price is too good. Bring Hoskins back & sign a top tier SP.

             KerKering is the real deal. A bit early, but I’ve seen enough.
             Just read the MLB article on his sweeper. Confirmed what I saw. I’m sold. His sweeper went half the distance of the plate 😂 and his FB tailed back 13” at damn near 100mph. I’m good. Him, Alvarado, Sir A, Soto with Hoffman, Strahm … more than good enough. Plus Rebounds form Sir A, still have faith Brogdon can turn it up. Plus McGarry could. Make the switch

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             1. Unless they win the WS and Kerkering is a big reason why they win, they ARE going to sign a FA reliever who can close. That’s what they’ve done every year. I don’t see why that would change now.

                They will also either extend Nola (I hope not) or sign another big money FA starter.

                I’m good with Hoskins being re-signed to play first on a pillow contract. If they do that, they need to move Castellanos and I want them to do that. That’s another move toward an improved fielding team. Slowly but surely, they are getting there.

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             2. Even if you let Kimbrel walk – Stramm, Alvie, Ser A, Hoffman, Soto, Capt Kerk; is just is not enough. We need 8 – and all of them need to be shut down variety. I hope McGarry regains his confidence etc. but I don’t bet on that. Team needs one more bona fide killer out of the pen – and a cheap long man. Brogdon is a nice filler but I have lost confidence in him – as has he. Maybe Marte bounces back and forth /maybe he finds control – or not ? Unless they can find another Hoffman – and knowing they are looking and good at it – do you want to bet they find one ? You are going to need actually several more “in the rough” given injuries and so on.

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                1. I will guarantee that all 8 will NOT be of the shutdown variety. No team has 8 shutdown guys. If a starter gets blown out early, what happens then? Most shutdown guys are usually 1 inning guys. You want Seranthony to go multiple innings? Soto? That’s a recipe for disaster.

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       2. Jordan Hicks is going to be a top name out there and he’s young (only 27). I would let Kimbrel walk and give Hicks 4/38.

          Strahm, Soto, Hoffman, Alvarado, Dominguez, Kerkering are all under contract. You add Hicks and a long man (Covey or somebody else) and you’re done.

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          1. Hader is also going to be available. As is Reynaldo Lopez, and Robert Stephenson (if the team thinks his success is sustainable, that K rate is NUTS). All three are potential high leverage arms that are significantly younger than Kimbrel.

             And that’s not even the full list. This year’s reliever class is not lacking. So those names in addition to the ones we’ve already got in-house should embolden the FO to be comfortable waiting out the market and finding a good deal or two.

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             1. DanK…..I like Stephenson also….my only issue…do we get the Pirate Stephenson or the Rays’ Stephenson from this year. Releivers are volatile from one season to another….and evn from one half season to another half season.
                I would still roll the dice on him.

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                1. Agreed that relievers are always a volitility risk. So if the Phils pass on him, I’ll assume they see something exploitable in his repertoire. But the best way to build a pen is with talent and depth to increase the odds of hitting on some guys, and he’s definitely got the talent.

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32. Hicks may likely get paid on his “future” but his career is not elite ; his 32 career saves ; 4.9 r BB/9 ; 9.4 K’s /9 ; 1.93 K/W rate ; and 1.289 whip. Hicks is a pitcher who has very high vol but doesn’t have the grit and composure to be a closer and at that price (4 years) he is not a complimentary bullpen piece. He is similar to Matt Strahm, who has comparable numbers.

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    1. Yes, Hicks career to this point has not been elite. But he’s young and he throws hard so you have to project what his numbers will be in the future. This is obviously risky but it’s a risk I think that teams will take. Don’t forget that Wheeler was good but not elite when the Phillies signed him as a FA and it has worked out well for us to say the least.

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33. That infield “single” in the 7th to Bohm is a perfect example why the defensive metrics continue to rate Bohm as the worst 3rd baseman in MLB. That play has to be an out. Remember that when you do your “eye test” that makes you think that he is a good defender.

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34. b1, I am probably the biggest Bohm supporter on this site, and I say that while respecting your opinion and not arguing against your point. I don’t think he is a good defensive player, but adequate enough for him to be my 3B for next season. May Miller in 3 years or do supplant him? Sure, that’s possible. I think we need young, home grown talent and Bohm, Stott and Rojas are ours, along with Ranger and hopefully Orion. We most likely lose Rhys Hoskins. Nola is a separate conundrum. I think the overall game Bohm provides is a net positive to the team, outweighing his defensive shortcomings. Is that an antiquated way to look at things? Maybe, but I think how far he has come makes him an important part of the team’s success. I am a big believer in team chemistry, and my team building thoughts only extend to next season.

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35. Bohm, for the next three years is very cost effective…that is a huge plus.
    Also his bat does have a good measure of production in it….a boWAR of 2 or 2.5.
    Like you say…..he is adequate for third base for the next three years…. and just based on experience he should get better in the field and he must avoid the physical errors/mistakes. I am sure the Philies will be very happy with that. They probaby can live with his range issues.

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    1. ideally, they can live with Bohm for the next 3 years – the good & the bad (timely hitting, cost effective, + team chemistry, and defensive limitations) with Miller ready to push him out near the end of year 3, to the point they could trade Bohm at the deadline for more prospects … even being in the playoffs. I suppose they would just keep both but you get the ideal scenario.
       You can’t keep paying guys 20+ Million a year and expect to keep extending the playoff window. They need to hit on both FA (which they have most of the recent signings) and keep hitting on prospects.
       Thats the only way to get ahead of the Braves. They got monster returns on Olson & Murphy trades… luckily it looks like their prospect well is “possibly” drying up.
       If Marsh & Rojas can make Castellanos expendable or Aidan Miller makes Bohm expendable, if KerKering can make Kimbrel expendable.. that’s the way it needs to be. We can’t repeat the errors of the 07-11 years, of holding onto our “star/heroes” .. they need to be replaced to keep, moving puzzle pieces around in terms of production & contract obligations.

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       1. Is Alec Bohm perfect? No. He has warts.
          Is Alec Bohm the Phillies best option @ 3B? 100% Yes.

          Unless Mike Trout becomes available (and it looks like that could become possible), Dave Dombrowski will spend the bulk of the winter working on the team’s rotation.

          Will Nola be a Phillie in 2024? As I’ve posted before … this depends on whether Aaron is ok with getting paid like a SP2. If he insists on SP1 cash, he’s going to have to get it from another organization. Last nite’s performance (he had the CB & CH moving better than at any time this season IMO) probably helped rehab some of his value. What he does in the postseason will also have a direct impact on Nola’s next contract.
          I love Blake Snell, but I think there’s a good chance the Padres will have the means to bring him back after dealing Juan Soto this offseason. IMO if Nola doesn’t come back, Dombrowski will go hard after Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They’ve scouted him hard. He could also make trade offers for Tyler Glasnow or one of Corbin Burnes/Brandon Woodruff.

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          1. Tom caught Nola in the locker room celebration. Again he brought up the pitch clock. He may hate it but he has to get over it LOL

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             1. Nola should pick his spots…if 0-2 on a batter, like last nght ..burn the clock, no big deal, just make sure you are properly ready for your next pitch.

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          2. Speaking of Burnes, Woodruff and add Peralta to that mix plus a very stout BP with Devin Williams at the backend whoever draws the Brewers is going to have a tough go of it.

             I don’t see any other team that has that type of 1-2-3 in their rotation.

             the combined WHIP of those 4 is .98

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             1. If I were a betting person, I’d throw some money down on Milwaukee. If that team gets hot at the plate, they are super dangerous.

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          3. “Is Alec Bohm perfect?” Is the wrong question.

             The right question is is Alec Bohm a net positive? Imo the reason it is a yes is because he is basically free. But let’s not kid ourselves. He is the worst defensive 3B in MLB by a wide margin. His defense is a net negative. His bat is above average. He’s fine because he is free.

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36. And v1, I apologize! I cannot have a typo in the person’s name I am responding to!

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    1. Lol. All good. Bohm has value because he is cheap. But he is a terrible defender. Slow on the bases. His bat is above average.

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37. Indeed, plus Bohm seems to be finding his power in the majors, he is improving.

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    1. Talking about Bohm improving is like talking about somebody’s portfolio. You could say that my portfolio improved from 3% last year to 5% this year which is great. But when the average portfolio is making 8%, it doesn’t sound so great anymore.

       And that’s Bohm in a nutshell. He may be improving, but not enough to be considered even a viable corner IF, and his numbers bear this out:

       2020 1.4 oWar, -0.5 dWar
       2021 0.2 -1.4
       2022 2.6, -1.5
       2023 1.7, -1.4

       But Bohm’s OPS(.770) and HR numbers(19) improved from 2022, what gives? I think if Bohm played primarily at 3B, his oWar would be better but he’s played almost half his time at 1B where the bar is a bit higher (like Freeman, Harper, Olson).

       So Bohm is improving, but when compared to others, it’s not enough. Will he ever improve to the point that it is enough? Maybe, but he’s 27 already and time is running out for him to do it.

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       1. Guru, don’t disagree with your position on Bohm with the exception that I think he is better defensively at 1B than 3rd Base, but you are correct he will never be able to bang with his contemporaries at that position (1B).

          I think he will continue to improve, but will never be exceptional at either position nor will he ever improve to where he is more than a major league player.

          I do feel bad for him when he screws up and has that whipped puppy dog look, like a kid who just got his hand smacked reaching into the cookie jar. I think Castellanos (master of the complacent look) could help him in that regard.

          Hey we are in the games! Go Phillies! Think they can field 9 after the celebration last night?

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          1. I was thinking that we have the same team that we had last year, now after going thru the roster, we have 12 new players of the 28on the roster from last year, 43%:
             Turner
             Castro
             Cave
             Pacheco
             Rojas
             Walker
             Lorenzen
             Strahm
             Soto
             Hoffman
             Kimbrel
             Kertering

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38. What is it with Phillies fans? We should be rejoicing in securing the first Wild Card seed and a second consecutive trip to the playoffs. Instead, we are back to bashing one of the players [Alec Bohm]who made both playoff berths possible. Give it a rest already. Please savor these wonderful moments. They don’t come often enough.

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    1. For sure, in 139 years of existence… 16 trips to the postseason… thats 11% they make the playoffs … and only 2 WS titles… so 1.5% of 139 seasons they’ve won it all.

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39. It was a great moment last night. Add it to the list of things the majority of this group has accomplished since last year, + what the new comers have done.

    I too am perplexed by the Bohm bashing but c’est la vie. I root a little harder for the home grown guys but that’s just me.

    At the end of the day last season set the bar incredibly high. That team took the best team in baseball to within 1 game of the WS and did so via the last WC spot.

    If this team doesn’t bring it home how will you judge the season? Who will get the wrath? Who will get a pass?

    It’s like a Netflix suspense thriller and I can’t stop watching!

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40. dmar, the Playoffs are a whole different animal. Anyone can step up, and it is definitely a thrilling time. Does Kerkering make the Roster? Who pitches 3rd, although I am hoping we win the 1st Rd in 2. I am convinced that Topper goes to Nola. Who can we rely on out of the BP? Will Harper play 1B every game? Because our best lineup has him at 1B, Marsh in LF and Rojas in CF. It was a lot of fun watching last night’s celebration. Stubbs is a real character! It is easy to root for this group of players. You could hear Marsh yelling over everyone. It’s Red October, and as all of you suffered with me from 2012 to last season, I can’t wait for some more thrills from this year’s Playoffs.

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    1. matt……barring any rain delays, Nola should get 7 days rest before Oct 4th, 2nd WC play-off game. I seriously doubt Thomson pitches him again…. Sunday would be his normal turn. So he should be well rested and ready to go.
       Monday we will know the WC roster. I guess Kerkering will get two more appearances over the next 5 games, that could sway Thomson’s decision one way ot another.
       Kimbrel is another concern….the rest should also help him. Sep has been hot and cold for him. Thomson still will probably go with as a the 8th inning or closer.

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       1. I don’t even Flinch Kerkering gets the nod from me. Now I don’t know the kid between the ears meaning I don’t know yet if the moment would be too big for him.

          What I do know is the stuff is some of the best I’ve seen from a reliever coming through our system in a long long time.

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          1. Thomson could possibly pitch Kerkering today, again on Friday and then lastly Sunday vs the Mets…that should be a good test for him

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          2. He’s been referred to as the “secret weapon”, which implies to me they knew he would be on the post season roster, and they were hiding him from getting scouting reports on him.

             Advantage in the 1st go around, is to the pitcher. The way his stuff moves, is unlike the rest of the mlb. Gotta use him. I put him in 7th & 8th innings because its the shock & awe strategy. Games on the line, and you gotta hit the fastest sweeper in the league, with the most amount of break? Combo’d with a 99.8 mph FB that moves 13”? Its also the 1st time you’re seeing this? Good luck!

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41. question romus and everyone, how much rest does Kimbrel get? Is it too much to not pitch him the rest of the regular season? Or does that have the opposite affect? I never know what the right move is. Assuming Stubbs catches today, how much does JTR play? How about Ser’A? Is it smart to pitch him or rest him? I agree Kerkering gets 2 more shots, and I believe he makes the Post season Roster. I also don’t expect to see Nola until the 4th. Is it better to completely rest guys or play them minimally?

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    1. Today will probably be an off day for most of the regular position players……then mix and match and play them so they get at least two ABs a game.
       Pitchers…not sure what he will do…..Kimbrel/Alv/SerA/Soto/Hoffman/Covey/Strahm/Lorenzen and of course Kerkering will still need to pitch some. They all get Monday off, so pitch them. Personally I want to see Thomson put Kerkering in save positions vs the Pirates and Mets this weekend.

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       1. Imagining a scenario where the game is on the line and assuming last night was your starting 9 in that exact alignment which player are you calling back to the dugout in lieu of a pinch hitter and who are you using?

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          1. But these last 5 games coming up now are not instrumental in the grand scheme of the play-offs. Any game on th eline now …pinch hit anybody….Castro for Harper!

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          2. Dmar, I assume your scenario is set in the playoffs. If so, the game situation and who’s due up would be considerations. More than that, who is on the bench is important. For instance, I can’t imagine a situation where I would use Stubbs as a pinch hitter. Same with Pache if he makes the playoff roster. If the rest of the bench is Sosa and Cave, they are at least guys who I would consider as pinch hitters. But, who would I hit for? Schwarber? No. Turner? No. Harper? No. Stott? No. Realmuto? No. Bohm? No. Castellanos? no. Marsh? I don’t think so. Against a RHP, no. Against a LHP? Perhaps, but not Pache. Maybe, Sosa. That leaves Rojas. Against a LHP I let him bat. Against a RHP, I consider using Cave.

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             1. I was right with you until the last sentence. Jake Cave with a bat in his hand leaves me wanting. Has he done anything in awhile that should instill playoff confidence?

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             2. I think I agree with you Jimmy and to your point about Cave Skeet you have no other LH options to go to. Its a coin toss.

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       2. Romus we both know that is a whole different pulse ox reading than what Orion is going to experience in the playoffs.

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          1. DMAR…agree.
             But still he needs to pitch over these last few days.. if he doesn’t at all, then the kid will not be on any post season rosters.

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             1. I agree that Kerkering is going to get a lot of looks this week. He pitched out of a little jam tonight. As the announcers were speculating about him walking 7-8-9 in high school to strike out 1-2-3, he did similar to that, striking out the next two batters after a one-out single and walk.

                I think Thomson would like to see him on back-to-back days. Dombrowski, too. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kerkering saw action in Thursday’s game and then again on Saturday to see how he bounces back from throwing two days in a row.

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             2. Well Romus according to Taryn and her interview with Kerkering’s dad Orion has ice in his veins LOL

                He pitched what 53 innings this season not including the 2 so far in the MLB. Personally I don’t need to see him back to back games until the playoffs.

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42. A little help here: I have never heard his name out loud. Is it Mick aBell or Mick Abull?

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    1. what about ‘able’?

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    2. BR has it……AY-bull

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    3. Able as in able, baker, charlie, …

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43. When I wrote Abull, I was spelling it phonetically. So it is when you are “able” to do something. Thank you, sir.

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    1. I do think his father had talked to Jim about the correct pronunciation a few years ago, when they were at the Complex.

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44. What a poor performance by Ranger! I know we clinched the #1 seed and half the lineup are backups, but his command was terrible and I expected a much better tuneup for the Playoffs. Sanchez looks like he should be SP #3.

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    1. I wouldn’t put any stock into his performance today, to be honest. There’s a very solid chance he was pitching hungover. And I mean that literally. There was a lot of alcohol flowing last night.

       Basically the only thing he was trying to do tonight was give the Phils some innings and not get hurt.

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    2. For goodness sake. They partied hard in the clubhouse and some crossed the street to continue celebrating afterward. I don’t know if Ranger was part of that group, but he was certainly celebrating in the clubhouse. So, he should get a pass.

       A little history. Ranger drew the start after the Phillies clinched in Houston. He was even worse – 3.0 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 HR, 2 BB, 2 K. He went on to throw well in the playoffs – 5 appearances, 3 starts, 14.2 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1.23 ERA, 1 HR (solo), 6 BB, 13 K, .167 AVG, 1.02 WHIP, 2 wins, 1 save, 0 Losses.

       He’ll be fine.

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       1. Thank you for the “Tummy Comfort.” Much appreciated.

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45. After last night’s celebration I didn’t expect much tonight. Actually turned out better than expected. I did think the pitch selections for Orion in his inning were very poor.

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    1. Wonder if that was coming from Stubbs, Kerkering, or the dugout.

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       1. I wrote a post last night that didn’t make the trip, weird stuff still happening, anyway FWIW! I don’t know “who” was calling the pitches, but Davis and Bottalico were critical as well. They mentioned out of approx. 21 pitches only 3 were fastballs.

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          1. That is very curious but that last FB he dotted low and away.

             Angel Hernandez by the way (I dread when he is behind the dish) wasn’t his usual horrible self. He wasn’t great but I’ve see him much worse.

             I still don’t understand why Castro is on this roster. and to Jim’s point above which was a scenario with the game on the line and you want a lefthanded bat off the bench who is not Cave why not carry Hall or Clemons for such a situation.

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          2. Skeet……they probably wanted him to establish his slider or sweeper or whatever it is called these days. They know what his FB can do. I assume it could more of the same on Friday vs the Mets. He will need that slider at peak performance if he is selected on the play-off roster and will be pitching against play-off teams.

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             1. Jim also touched on different ball. Maybe they were trying to let him get a feel for how this ball spins compared to the AA ball.

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                1. DMAR…yeah the ball could be a factor. And everything comes off the FB…that being siad, he will need the slider as an out pitch come play-offs…..the lineup the Braves and Dodgers feature, can hit FBs.

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             2. Look, you never really know, when games are meaningless, what the team is trying to do with a pitcher. That said, I agree with Bottalico that, with a 98-99 MPH, moving FB that he seems to be able to command, Kerkering should not only be throwing that pitch much more, he should, as Ricky suggested, be establishing it early in counts so he can put away hitters with the slider/sweeper. He should be throwing that FB at least 40 percent of the time, not 10 percent of the time.

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                1. Yes, it didn’t make any sense why Kerkering wasn’t throwing more fastballs, unless it was more for him getting a feel for the baseball. It got to the point where the Pirates started waiting for the slider with Joe getting a single and Henry Davis taking big swings on that pitch.

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46. You are correct, Jim, over reaction on my part! I completely forgot about that performance after we clinched last year and that was clearly worse! I was venting in the moment. We came back, again, and got the W! 1st Win for Orion in the Bigs and a great closing effort by Soto.

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47. You are correct, Jim, over reaction on my part! I completely forgot about that performance after we clinched last year and that was clearly worse! I was venting in the moment. We came back, again, and got the W! 1st Win for Orion in the Bigs and a great closing effort by Soto.

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48. Did seem strange that Kerkling not as sharp control with Slider. keep throwing it, That fastball he threw to left hander to strike him out, Was a blurr, great velo, from this kid, This is not the first time Ben has question the pitch selection

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49. Stubbs is my kind of guy. He partied harder than any of them Tuesday night yet he was probably the first one in the clubhouse yesterday prepping and getting an IV so as to prove he’s not just a RaRa bench piece.

    He’s like the little engine that could book. Wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he winds up a manager one day in our system.

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    1. Look, I love Garrett Stubbs the person and teammate – how could you not?

       That said, he’s been a well below average back-up catcher this year (was better last year) and Marchan, who would be, in my opinion, a well above average back-up catcher in the big leagues, is ready for a promotion.

       If the team stays with Stubbs because they believe he’s that valuable to the team in terms of chemistry and attitude, at least for next year, I’m okay with that. But in terms of ability and the future – Marchan would be the guy, especially since his defense is so good that he wouldn’t need to hit that much to become a replacement for JT in a few years. And, while we were sleeping, Marchan has, as was expected, slowly improved his offensive skills. He draws walks, hits with improved power and has a good hit tool. He’s the type of guy who, like Rojas, could immediately be a 3 WAR player. Cheap 3 WAR players are extremely valuable (see Brandon Marsh).

       If it’s me, I let Marchan compete with Stubbs for the role next spring, and probably err in favor of Marchan. Moving on from popular players is so difficult, especially with a back-up where there’s not much impact on the team’s record. But, on the whole, these are changes you need to make to keep your team competitive year after year.

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       1. I agree Stubbs isn’t much of a player and you know I love Marchan. But thinking along that path when decisions need to be made about dropping players that are great glue guys…

          It isn’t easy

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          1. No, it isn’t easy. The team might even start next year with Stubbs at back-up knowing it could trade or release him at any time. I would remind people that the players on the team thought similarly about Andrew Knapp before they let him go.

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    2. Yeah Stubbs probably will go into the management/coaching area of baseball…..understand he worked very closely with Kinsler on the Jewish basbeall team this past WBC.

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       1. Team Israel.

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50. If you are worrying about Castro and Cave at bottom of the roster in playoffs remember last year’s bottom of the roster had Maton only batting once and Vierling didn’t make much of a difference in the playoffs.

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    1. Exactly. If you’re worried about Castro/Cave, then the starters didn’t do their jobs. The Phillies will go as far as the starters will take them.

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51. Castro started yesterday and he has a very strong arm, more than enough for 3B. He had a play at 3B where he ran in and barehanded a ball and whipped it to 1B and made the play a lot closer than it should have been. I doubt Sosa would have made it and there’s no way Bohm does.

    So Castro (as the likely last bench player) may not have the hitting skills but he has the positional flexibility (2B/3B) to play solid defense which is what the Phillies want at this point.

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    1. Castro did make a very nice play yesterday at 3B and I concur that I don’t think our other players mentioned make that play. However, that is the only thing I can think of that he did all year that merits a positive comment. He isn’t a 2nd basemen IMHO. However, wouldn’t Wilson at LHV add that flexibility. Do you believe that Castro makes the playoff roster?

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       1. For me, it really doesn’t matter if Castro makes the roster or not. Having Wilson over Castro won’t matter either. The starters are going to get all the ABs. The only way Castro/Wilson are going to play if there’s an injury or there’s a blowout and the outcome of the game has already been 99% decided.

          Harper is going to play 1B and Schwarber is going to be the DH. The only platoon is in LF: Marsh or Pache. And then if Pache is up and a RH is in, then I can see Cave pinch hitting for Pache. Any other bench player is not going to play in the playoffs.

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    2. Eric Bruntlett, Luis Avila or Terry Harmon type player I guess.

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52. Gators have rights:
    A Jonestown, PA, man and his emotional support alligator were barred from attending Wednesday’s Phillies game, according to multiple reports. The man was identified by The Phila Inquirer as Joie Henney, who keeps WallyGator to help him in his battle with depression. Clad on Wednesday in leash and harness, the alligator is something of a local celebrity and boasts more than 109,000 followers on TikTok.

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    1. I have an emotional support Wolverine, he ate the Fed Ex Guy, but he was delivering to the wrong address, so it was his fault. The USPS guy likes him, throws day old chicken wings before delivery. The suicide wings give him gas and then we pour shots of Maalox. If we make it to the 2nd round, I’ll bring him.

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       1. Interesting Skeet, a Wolverine…….a Michigan Wolverine?

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          1. He’s a strange dude, doesn’t like Harbaugh and thinks the helmets are demeaning to a true Wolverine!

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             1. Gotcha

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53. An “emotional support alligator”? I am all for dealing with depression and anxiety, and understand how serious they can be. But, an alligator? Never heard of that before and understand why he was not allowed to attend the game.

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    1. Though the gator came prepared for the agme, had his Phillies colors on…red leash.

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       1. I’d trust an Alligator to be better behaved than most of my fellow humans…

          Not you guys though LOL

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          1. Can you just imagine…..the guy bringing the gator to the annual Bark in the Park game…..man what a scene that would be.

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    2. An emotional support animal is not the same thing as a service dog. With a service dog, you have the right to bring this animal with you. You don’t have these same rights with emotional support animals. Most businesses will accommodate emotional support animals to a certain degree. Alligators are obviously dangerous animals and should be denied. I remember somebody trying to bring an emotional support peacock at the airport and was denied. Unless the animal is a SMALL dog or cat, you are very limited in where you can go with your emotional support animals.

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54. Angel Hernandez…..maintaining his reputation

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    1. Unreal how bad he is. Just terrible.

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       1. He and CB Buckner areridiculously bad. Buckner, who is also terrible at calling balls and strikes, cannot make a good call on a close play in the infield. I swear he has no better than a 50/50 chance of getting it right. When he makes a call, I presume it is incorrect. It’s outrageous that MLB cannot weed out umpires who are this bad. On balls and strikes, I am 100 percent okay with the computer calling these. The umpires really aren’t all that important to this process, and they can still punch the batter out with flair once the signal is given to them.

          Sometimes the lack of use of technology in sports amazes me. Here’s one in football that always gets me going. Why on earth do they “bring out the chains” to measure first downs? I guess it’s tradition and you might think it’s dramatic (I guess it is, a little but), but can’t you just keep the chains on the sidelines and laser measure whether there’s a first down? The existing method is so primitive that it’s almost comical.

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55. Lots of rain in NY for tonight’s game. It’s looking like double header time Saturday or Sunday.

    The Marlins got screwed by the NY rain last night. Their game got suspended and would only be played on Monday IF the Marlins needed the game for playoff implications. And since they’re currently occupying the #6 seed, it’s extremely likely. In order for the Marlins NOT to be in the playoffs, they would have to lose all 3 games to the Pirates this weekend to start.

    Arizona is not out of the woods yet. They are home to Houston who are also fighting for their playoff lives. It’s going to be an interesting weekend of games.

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    1. DBacks Gallen pitches tonite, so will not be available until Wed next week vs Nola if the Snakes do get the second WC.

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       1. Of all the possible match ups the Brewers would scare me most. They remind me of the Giants from 2010-2012

          How bout JP Crawford walking it off last night. Mariners doing everything they can to stay alive. They too have a good 1-2-3 punch of starters.

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          1. Crawford is just now achieving the potential most of us always thought he had. Often, you just need to be patient with prospects. Not all players develop at the same rate. Fortunately, the Phillies, with Thomson, are now very patient with guys they believe have potential. They just keep running the guys they believe in out there, but they also try to put them in situations where they will succeed. I just cannot say enough good things about Thomson as a manager. He’s the best Phillies manager since I’ve been following the team (1992) – and, in my view, it’s not even close.

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             1. No Charlie Manual?

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                1. No. Charlie was absolutely great with players, but so is Thomson. But Thomson is superior when it comes to in-game and other strategic moves and planning. Thomson was the perfect man for the job.

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                2. Praising thomson. Who finished 15 games behind Atlanta is like putting me in a room full of cakes. And saying it’s okay fat man to eat all the donuts

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56. And how bout the Orioles. 2 seasons ago they lost 100 games this season they won 100. Their highest paid guy is Kyle Gibson at $10 million.

    McCann is getting $12 million but the Mets are paying all but a $1 million of that LOL.

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57. The next team to watch is the Detroit Tigers. They just revamped their FO with Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg who come from the Epstein and Hoyer tree.

    Also a shout out to Philly’s own Kevin McGonigle taken in the 2nd round by Detroit he had an excellent showing in his first taste of pro ball 315/452/863 over 91 PAs with 18 BBs and 10 Ks.

    Comcast Sports Net featured him a bunch in the spring as he cited Chase Utley as his role model and favorite player…

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58. Tonight’s game has already been cancelled. A double admission DH tomorrow starting at around 4.

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59. Does anyone think that changes any pitching plans? I guess someone could have come out of the BP tonight and again tomorrow, but that won’t happen in the same day.

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    1. Thomson said he may go with bullpen games this weekend…did not say how many , just said that he is thinking about it. I had assumed Sunday would be one, but now it could be Sunday and one tomorrow now

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       1. They also should be able to leverage/burn a minor league arm to get through the DH because they’ll be allowed an extra man. I wouldn’t bother putting many extra innings on any member of the starting staff or bullpen if I didn’t have to do that. Covey should pitch as much as he possibly can this weekend!

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          1. I like to see Michael Plassmeyer brought in….as a starter already stretched out, he could go 4/5 innings in one of the games.

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             1. Agree on Plassmeyer….

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          2. The CLW stay ready crew includes these pitchers….Andrew Bellatti, Connor Brogdon, Yunior Marte, McKinley Moore, Nick Nelson, Luis Ortiz; and left-hander Michael Plassmeyer.

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60. My mistake, it is a single admission DH tomorrow. And, great idea about the stay ready players at CLW. I forgot we can add a player.

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    1. So, if we can add a player, there’s no conflict between Hoskins joining the roster later and Kerkering remaining on the roster – is that correct?

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       1. I think he means we’re allowed to add a player for the double-header.

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       2. right, I think the DH rule allows the addition of a player without anyone getting sent down. The Playoff roster machinations are under a different set of rules. So, Orion can be added to replace Rhys.

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          1. It struck me odd that Thomson said yesterday…Rhys could be with them at the World Series……why not the other play-off series’ prior!

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             1. He’s not far enough along in his rehab. Won’t be ready for the other rounds.

                Re-joining the team for the World Series (as the DH) would also directly mirror what Schwarbs did for the Cubs. So that’d be cool.

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                1. Ok …makes sense…he has been hitting in the cage and probably heads to CLW, but maybe not cleared yet to run the bases.

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             2. Really, Rhys ready for the playoffs, the playoffs, ……the playoffs, .
                ……..Rhys ready? If Rhys is ready, then I got a shot at Taylor Swift!

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61. The Giants let Gabe Kapler go. I am empathetic towards anyone who loses their job but we were right to let him go. I thought he was too reliant on analytics and didn’t let his feel for the game ever come into play. Even when he had early success in SF and we were floundering under Girardi, I never questioned our decision. The Giants really folded down the stretch.

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    1. matt…I think gabe was fortunate in the early years out there with so many veteran players who were just beginning their slide…Psey, Longoria, Crawford, Belt et al. So he had that going for him and they won 107 games in ’21. Once Posey retired and the others left….that was it.

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    2. Really, who woulda thought something like that could happen? A guy who had all the answers and protected his players the way he did.

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    3. Gabe led his teams to lousy Septembers – we enjoyed ?? two of them. I agree – he is robotic and numbers driven to a fault. Tough for him but predictable.

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62. Much like when he was here Kapler helmed a team that wasn’t talented enough to make the playoffs but got close. Only real difference is that they defied the odds once in SF and won a ton of games.

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63. MLBTRs hints that his managerial style was not conducive to a winning atmosphere in the locker room. Which, wouldn’t be hard for me to believe.

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    1. I am sure Gabe Kapler will get another shot as manager in MLB. Just like when he was in Philly, he did not have a team that was really good enough on paper to compete with the Dodgers – or the Padres. He is obviously innovative – for example, his idea of pitchers keeping written notes on batter tendencies vs memorizing them, or substituting a position player for a pitcher in blow-out games. Whether his management style is conducive to winning may better become a matter to be discussed in perfect hindsight. Who would have thought, for example, that Dallas Green’s interpersonal approach would have promoted a winning atmosphere? Tito Francona, as I recall, was quickly given the bum’s rush out of Philadelphia (and later Boston) yet his next stop might be the Hall of Fame!

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       1. I agree that he’ll likely get another shot and that he wasn’t in a position to do well with that roster. But it is concerning that there are whispers of him losing the clubhouse of both teams he’s managed so far.

          It’s also amusing that you give him credit for innovating the substitution of position players for pitchers, considering that’s been happening since the 1800s. And back then you couldn’t substitute from the bench! The pitcher and position player had to both be in the game and literally just change places.

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64. Romus, how do you fill out the 1rst round playoff roster? Not, by names necessarily, but by position and numbers?

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    1. Same as regular season sans T Walker sits it out, and replaced by Kerkering.

       Good article on Kekering ‘s slider development from 5/6 years ago, and the Rules he follows-LOL…Alex Coffey is the author.

       https://www.inquirer.com/phillies/orion-kerkering-slider-phillies-playoff-roster-20230929.html

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65. While no one noticed Miami has crept within one game of Arizona for the 5th seed. Arizona lost last night, Miami won – they have respectively, 2 games and 3 games left. Arizona is playing Houston who is motivated to win out. While Miami has 3 games left, they are winning a top of 9th inning suspended game 2-1 vs Mets. With that game on their win ledger, the teams are tied. MIAMI owns the tie breaker with Arizona. Is it possible Phils play Miami ? Maybe ?

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    1. It could definitely happen. The DBacks are the more talented team but they have had frustrating losing streaks to put them in this position.

       Miami is less talented but grittier team who is obviously not scared of the Phillies. And Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez are hurt.

       I still would rather face Miami.

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       1. High powered matchup tonight in the desert: Verlander vs Kelly.

          The Mariners, who are also fighting for their playoff lives, have Castillo vs Heaney.

          It’s going to be wild Saturday for baseball.

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    2. I think I read earlier this week Alcantara is shut down for the year….not sure about that.

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66. You are correct, romus. He was shut down during a rehab assignment when he complained of tightness in his arm. A sprained UCL, and won’t pitch again this season. I really don’t know which team I prefer. I wanted to play the Cubs but they decided not to participate too strongly in the Wild Card race!

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    1. Has anyone heard if Rikardo will be invited to the Performance camps to get back in business?

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67. Covey to the IL and Castro to the stay ready site in Clearwater.. Wes Wilson and Luis Ortiz called up. Covey won’t be back until at least the NLCS.

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    1. Part of the roster gymnastics to make Orion Kerkering available for the postseason.

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68. How can Walker make the Playoff Roster? He has looked let’s call it less than acceptable and his 1st innings are terrible, so we cannot count on him to come out of the BP. I know we have clinched, and Topper is not concerned about Ws,
    but I hoped Walker would realize his Roster spot is in jeopardy and pitch better.

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69. Talk about mailing it in. I realize that these games are meaningless but this is ridiculous. It is so hard for me to watch Walker pitch. I know he has had a decent year but I still think it was not a good signing.

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    1. I’m taking a silver lining approach and saying they’re trying to hurt the Mets one more time. If the Mets finish with a better record than (or tied with) the Angels, they lose their first round draft pick. But if they’re top 6 it’s protected.

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       1. DanK…some of the Mets fans are probably thinking…just tank now.

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70. Michael Plassmeyer pitches game 2. Walker has pitched well if we can call the first inning a mulligan! Anyway, we have to make a roster move to add Michael P. And in case there was still any debate, Rojas is much better than Pache.

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    1. You mean to add him to the playoff roster? Because I’m pretty sure Plassmeyer is our complimentary double-header call up, which doesn’t require a corresponding move.

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       1. Whoops, forgot the free call up goes away in September (which still feels like a weird rule to me).

          Erich Uelman to the 60 day and Luis Ortiz optioned for Plassmeyer’s spot.

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71. Praise Pache’s defense all we want but there is a big reason why the Braves and even the A’s gave up on him. The guy can’t hit Major League pitching. I don’t think he will be on this roster next season. Wilson has a ton of swing and miss to his game but he has power, runs well, and plays multiple positions. He should be on the roster next year with Castro at AAA.

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    1. By the numbers , Pache has 4 MLB seasons….400 PAS….some young players need steady playing time for an extended period of time, e.g. JPC.
       He may be that type of player…..his minor league slash of 276/.329/.401 in close to 2400PAs is not spectacular but is decent enough…with a 21% K-rate and 7% BB-rate.
       He may end up being a 4th OFer when all is said and done,
       but Dombrowski and the Phillies saw something in him and I am curious to see what they will do with him after the season.

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       1. Pache can only hit lefties at this point but he has so much talent that it’s easy to see why he’s getting all these chances. I think he’s the 4th OF for 2024.

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       2. If you didn’t have Rojas you could afford to keep and play Pache everyday in CF to see if the hit tool comes along. But I don’t see that as the case any longer.

          It has to be Rojas moving forward and with Pache out of options DD has to move him this offseason.

          WW is a useful piece to keep on your roster. Yea he K’d in 27% of his PAs but he also BBd in 14% of them and put 32 over the wall.

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          1. DMAR….you are probably correct.
             Pache just does not have the bat for the corners and Rojas will be the da man for CF it appears now.
             Pache’s prospect hype and possibly eventual plateau could be similar to Victor Robles and Manual Margot when they both came up….great gloves, and plenty of bat potential, that never really materialized at the MLB level. Pache could fall into that lane.

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             1. Michael A Taylor is in that mix too. Useful guys in a LU where you have plenty of offense from the other 8 spots or your big club just needs a place holder until a prospect is ready.

                You can carve out a 10 year career and get a pension being that guy.

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72. Looks like Nelson pitches tomorrow with Plassmeyer going back to CWater.

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73. This is an audition for Plassmeyer and Nick Nelson. They need to show the Phillies something for 2024.

    Plassmeyer will be 27 and he’s topping out at 91. He has to be behind Abel at this point.

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    1. Pache can’t hit. Move on from him

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       1. Agreed time to go. Tired of 1 dimensional players. They are actually only half a talent imo.

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    2. He lost the part

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74. Sorry Guru, Nelson and Plassmeyer have no roles on the team next season. This is just getting through innings so the staff is rested for the start of the Playoffs. And I hope this is the right way to get ready.

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    1. It’s not only an audition for the Phillies, it’s for every team. This audition is also to see if he can be depth for the Phillies I.e to keep at Lehigh for 2024. Unfortunately, Plassmeyer is getting lit up.

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       1. Plassmeyer’s command is severely lacking and he doesn’t have the velocity to get away with it. He threw some meatballs to the Mets hitters.

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          1. He is terrible. But was in the minors So it’s not anything different

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75. Now that all the players are in, it’s now about positioning. Does Houston want to go to Minnesota or TB? If they want to go to Minnesota, they could field a non-competitive team and throw that game.

    I don’t think anybody wants to go to Milwaukee in a short series so I think the Marlins and DBacks would want to try to win to play the Phillies.

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76. Phillies have very little momentum going into the playoffs while the Marlins have a ton. Plus, the Marlins played the Phillies tough all season. Need to watch out for Luzardo and Cabrerra and that loaded bullpen. This could be a nightmare.

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    1. I am so tired of worrying about the Marlins. I say, bring them on and let’s settle this Miami Mystique. We need to wipe their butts this week and let them be afraid of Philly!
       END IT NOW!!!!!!!!!

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    2. Could be a nightmare, ok….but veterans like Harper, Turner, Schwarber, JTR, Wheeler and Nola may not go down without swinging.

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    3. I hate the match up.

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77. DanK…with the Mets winning the second game last night, and the As beating the Angels yesterday……the Mets finish 7th in the draft, and outside the ‘protect top 6 picks’.

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    1. Yeah, I was talking to my dad while watching the games and laughing about how they played themselves out of a protected pick.

       Just one more thing to go wrong for them this season. If they didn’t cheer for the Mets, I’d actually feel bad for their fans.

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78. We need to win this game today to restore the proper mindset for the week ahead. No more Mr. Niceguy! It is “Personal” from hereon, the crown awaits

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79. A bunch of guys (Scott, Bohm, Turner) are slumping at the wrong time. The team had to play pressure games last season almost to the very end. Taking the foot off of the pedal so soon bodes poorly. I hope that Professor Romus is correct when he writes that the veterans “may not go down without swinging”.

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    1. Turner looks like he’s breaking out of his slump. Has a 4 game hit streak including a 3 hit game against the Pirates on the 28th.

       Stott and Bohm are definitely slumping, though. But by far my biggest concern is Schwarber. He’s homered in 2 of his last 3, so he might be back on track, too. But he was looking BRUTAL for the past couple weeks.

       As for taking the foot off the pedal, it’s true that the Phils were playing meaningful games for slightly longer last season. But it’s not like they were playing them particularly well. Let us not forget that last September, while fighting for their playoff lives, they had two separate 5 game losing streaks. And they also lost the last two games of the season after clinching a playoff spot. So it’s not like they were exactly red hot going into the playoffs.

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       1. No, they were ice cold and limped into the playoffs. Then they came back to beat the Cardinals at the end of the first wild card game and, suddenly, everything changed. Nobody should care at all about these last 4 games.

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80. Glad we got W #90, and I know it doesn’t matter once the Playoffs start but I wanted 90. I owe Nick Nelson an apology! Yesterday I lumped him with Plassmeyer and said he had no future here and he went out and Pitched really well. This is a team that is easy to like! Glad Bohm hit his 20th, and I am not trying to start the whole Bohm debate, just happy for the kid. We are a better team than the Marlins and need to just go out and beat them. I believe we do.

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    1. matt…they won the season series 7-6, and won 4 at CBP….it will not be a cakewalk.
       They also have quality LHPs in Luzardo, and also Scott and Puk coming out of the pen.
       Phillies have the veteran guys with play-off experience, so maybe that will be the difference maker.

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81. Maybe Kapler will catch on in NY!😅🤣

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    1. Kapler is almost as useful to a team as the ball boy….probably less so! The only reason he found work as a manager was because the GMs that hired him wanted full control over the LU card and he had no opposition to it.

       In a managerial hire/interview process its a very big part of the discussion. Gabe was always a patsy just happy to be there.

       There was never any substance to that guy. He was always just a well practiced pitch man that could nail the buzz words and phrases whilst pushing the company line.

       And of course look good doing so…

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82. All 3 possible baseball games will be at 8pm.

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83. Nice to see the boys finally break out late in the game. So happy that they won 90 games. More games with Miami and (hopefully) Atlanta.

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    1. ciada…what if DBacks upset Brewers, and Phillies also win…..then it is out to LA.

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       1. The D-Backs have a winning record against the Brewers this season as do the Marlins over the Phillies

          Probably means nothing.

          I do believe the balanced schedule has a major impact on shaking out the chaff of the league.

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          1. Any thoughts of Marsh in LF even against LHP?

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             1. The Marlins have Luzardo and Garrett, both lefties to start the series, and both are exceptionally nasty vs lefties (.600 OPS). If Marsh plays, he’ll play against 1 of them but not both.

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84. Are wild card tickets only being sold to season ticket holders and or other partial ticket packages? When reading the lotto it was saying NLDS/NLCS/WS so no chance of WC round.. guess makes sense with only 2 guaranteed games to make sure all ticket package buyers get dibs but would be nice if that was actually stated

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85. The last game I went to this season was 9/9 the middle game of a 3 game set with the Marlins. We won 8-4 but lost the night before and the Sunday after.

    3 game sets are scary no matter who you’re playing. Even scarier when you have to play teams that had little to no expectations on them for the year.

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86. a little off topic here, but something about someone near and dear to our heart – Angel Hernandez!

    Peter King reported this in his weekly football column, and now it’s gone (I have a screen shot of the original comment, but don’t know how to post here)

    p. That’s what you call an utterly preposterous call, I was surprised, pleasantly so, when Hernandez got dismissed by MLB on Friday. I don’t like rooting for firings, but Hernandez has been in over his head for a long, long time

    After reading this, I searched and found nothing. Now, his article has been amended to

    p. That’s what you call an utterly preposterous call

    i was shocked to read he was fired, didn’t actually believe it, since it would have been a big baseball story … apparently, someone screwed up!

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    1. Tom … that is really interesting. I’d be shocked if the league was able to fire Angel Hernandez. With the exception of the Richie Phillip’s ill-fated idea of umpire’s mass resignation in the 90s, I can’t think of an instance when an ump got fired. The union is very strong.
       Maybe Hernandez is retiring. He’s got 30+ years in. Hernandez also filed a racial discrimination lawsuit against MLB a few years back. He lost that. It might look bad for the league to fire Angel after that suit.

       UPDATE: just came across a case where an umpire lost his job for failing a drug test.

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87. Hats off to Miguel Cabrera a sure fire 1st ballot HOF player and one of the best RH Hitters I’ve ever witnessed.

    Terry Francona also…

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88. Romus – When I wrote “hopefully” Atlanta, what I meant was that the Phillies would get past Miami. First things first.

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89. The regular season is now over and there were some interesting developments:

    Stott (4.4 WAR) – did not see that coming. Before you ask, his agent is Boras so I doubt he takes a team friendly deal.

    Harper (3.7 WAR) – he would have been a lock for over 4 WAR if he wasn’t injured to start the season. And he was average playing 1B so his dWar didn’t take away his value.

    Realmuto (3.6 WAR) – hit better late and had a good season for year 3 of his 5 year deal.

    Turner (3.6 WAR) – his errors were alarming but got hot after the standing ovation and played up to his contract.

    Marsh (3.4 WAR) – had hoped that he would develop and he did. Torched RH pitching (.864 OPS) and was adequate vs lefties (.717 OPS).

    Rojas (2.4 WAR) – really didn’t see this coming and he’s a stud defensively.

    Castellanos (1.6), Schwarber (0.7), Bohm (0.5) – As expected.

    The pitching regressed this season and it was worrisome:

    Wheeler (4.2 WAR) – got better late in the season.

    Walker (2.5 WAR) – played up to his contract.

    Suarez (2.4 WAR) – started the season hurt and he’s pitching like a 3/4 which is probably what he is. His 2021 season is looking like an outlier.

    Strahm (2.2 WAR) – really saved the Phillies stepping into the rotation when needed.

    Sanchez (2.1 WAR) – came out of nowhere and was extremely effective.

    Nola (2.1 WAR) – huge disappointment during his walk year. Gave up bombs on a regular basis.

    Hoffman (2 WAR) – picked him off the scrap heap and delivered big.

    Kimbrel (1.8 WAR) – turned back the clock at age 35.

    Alvarado (1.1 WAR) – lost 2 months to injury, otherwise was lights out.

    Soto (0), Dominguez (0.4) – disappointing seasons.

    Lorenzen (-0.2 WAR) – just wasn’t same after the no-hitter.

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    1. Note that, for some players, fWAR had much different grades. Fangraphs have Wheeler as the best starting pitcher in baseball with 5.9 WAR and Nola as a top 15 pitcher with 3.9 WAR (do I believe both grades? Not really, particularly not with Nola, but it’s noteworthy).

       FYI, I don’t think Suarez is a 3/4. I think time will tell that he’s a 2/3. Even missing about a third of the season and struggling with a few minor injuries and consistency, he was a solid 3 (on pace for like a 3.5 WAR season – that’s very good). He is overlooked but he shouldn’t be. The Phillies should sign him to a 3-5 year deal now (perhaps with option years for the time), while he’s affordable.

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       1. I stick with BR, I personally think their grades are better reflective of their seasons. There’s absolutely no way that Nola got close to 4 WAR, that really doesn’t have any sense.

          I call Suarez a 3/4, you call him 2/3, that’s fine. He’s still a keeper. I gave him that grade because he doesn’t really have a plus pitch to lean on. My example for a 2/3 is Brandon Woodruff.

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          1. Woodruff has had health issues, but, to me, when he’s on the mound, he’s pretty clearly a 2. He has the ability to have an ace-like performance any time he goes on the mound, but he’s just not as consistent as a true ace.

             This year, Nola was a 3, in other years, he’s pitched like a 2. But he’s going to want near-ace money. I would be reluctant to re-sign him, but somebody is going to give him a huge contract.

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          2. Soooo, you prefer the WAR that aligns with your thinking. Got it.

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       2. On the flip side, fWAR had Realmuto as a 1.4 WAR players – I think the truth on that lies somewhere between the fWAR and bWAR extremes. He was okay, but much worse than last year.

          On Walker, he’s fine, but he’s also an expensive luxury. He’s frustrating to watch pitch with all the early inning runs and walks. He’s really good if you like 7 inning, 4 earned run outings. I am not being critical or sarcastic – there’s some value in that because he saves the bullpen wear and tear and he’s actually pretty consistent so on a big scoring team he can win a lot of games. But do you want him starting a game in the playoffs? I sure as hell don’t.

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          1. Realmuto had 6.5 WAR at age 31, he was definitely going to regress. But if you told me that he was going to be 3.5-4 WAR for 2023, I would have taken that in an instant. And I would take the same thing for the final 2 years of his deal.

             Pitching is expensive and Walker did his job. He’s a 4/5 pitcher who eats innings. And no, I wouldn’t want him to start a playoff game.

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             1. I am just making an observation about big contracts. It’s fine to pay tons of money for a true star like Harper, but healthy teams don’t throw $18 million away on mediocre players like Walker or $20m per year on Castellanos. They are just okay players, at best. It limits your ability to sign the starts to big money deals.

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    2. Can’t really complain about the hitting side. Marsh and Stott took big steps forward and Rojas is looking like the second coming of Garry Maddox.

       Crazy to think that Sanchez wouldn’t have got his chance if Painter didn’t get hurt AND Falter didn’t disappoint.

       The Phillies have Wheeler, Suarez, Walker, Sanchez for 2024. I don’t think the Phillies will sign a long term pitcher for their open spot because they have Painter and Abel waiting in the wings. We debated this last season and I mentioned that the Phillies were going to leave an open spot for Painter and they did.

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       1. I disagree completely. I think it’s almost certain that they either re-sign Nola or sign another big name free agent (it might not be the top guy, but it won’t be another Taijuan Walker-type). They will not go into next year having Walker and Suarez competing for the # 2 spot. As for Painter and Abel, Painter’s not pitching next year and, as much as I love Abel, he’s going to start out as a like a #4 and it could take him several years to reach his potential. Abel will not be the reason they don’t sign a big name pitcher during the offseason this year, be that Nola or someone else.

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          1. I understand completely but pitching is only going to get more expensive. Snell is going to command $200M+ starting at age 31, not sure if I want to pay that. If the Phillies are going all out, they should go all out on Yamamoto but the bidding is going to be fierce for that guy. I think he’ll get 7/210 easy.

             There are a bunch of pitchers like Stroman who will command less years or you can bet on a bounce back year from say Martin Perez.

             Unless it’s Yamamoto, I don’t see the Phillies spending crazy money on a pitcher.

             And if people are complaining about Nola at age 30, what’s going to happen at age 33 or 34?

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             1. I’m just telling you what I expect they will do. I think the lowest level pitcher they would add would be someone like Stroman, but DD loves the shiny big star and he’s not afraid to overpay with someone else’s money, nor is he afraid to give a player a much longer contract than that player’s expected useful life. So, it could be a great deal for 2023-26 – but after that, who knows?

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                1. 2024 that is, I can’t believe we are nearly getting done with 2023.

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                2. I like DD, but he handed out the 8 year, $240 million Miguel Cabrera contract which, arguably, was the worst contract in MLB history. Cabrera had one good year. They just threw $200 million down the drain.

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    3. Nice, good evaluation. I think I agree with you.

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    4. “Stott (4.4 WAR) – did not see that coming. Before you ask, his agent is Boras so I doubt he takes a team friendly deal.”

       Bohm, also a Boras client.
       Stott and Bohm will not be signng any ‘ Acuna/Albies’ LTC’ s any time soon as Boras clients.

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       1. Good on Bohm. You don’t want to give him a big FA contract. Stott is another story entirely, but I wouldn’t worry. They control his rights for another 5 years. We are good.

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          1. I like Rojas…he could be that stud CFer, with a better-than- average decent bat.
             However, the Phillies do need to strike gold with a Latin American signing one of these years…..virtually most teams, both large and small market, have come up with that LA signing who have turned into perennial all-stars.
             This would further help down the road in managing the Luxury Tax make-up.
             The DSL/FCL has players now that may be that answer.

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             1. The Phillies did strike gold with Rojas, and yes, it’s about time. There are some interesting names in the lower levels but those guys are at least 2-3 years away. A lot can still happen.

                If Rojas had his .845 OPS at Reading in 2022 instead of this season, I wonder if the Phillies trade for Brandon Marsh…

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                1. Yes….JTR’s eventual replacement in O’Hoppe would be set in place.

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90. I would say they struck silver with Rojas. He’s a superb, elite outfielder. Perhaps a 3 WAR defender, which is 80 on the scouting scale. I still want to see what happens to him as a hitter. But even if he’s a 1 WAR hitter, he’s still a 3-4 WAR player and a starter on a contending team.

    As for Marsh, he’s already a first division regular – a roughly 4 WAR player (he played like that this year, but missed some games, which brought his WAR numbers down). The Phillies needed him and paid a steep price, but he has done all you could have asked and has justified the trade even if O’Hoppe turns out to be a star, which is what I think is going to happen. As I said before, O’Hoppe is the type of catcher that comes through your system only about every 25 to 30 years or so. So if you trade that guy, you’ve got to get good value in return and, it turns out that they did. So all’s well.

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91. And for everyone’s concerns and questions about Pache, you know what I do with Pache? Absolutely nothing. He stays right where he is. We get so impatient with our prospects and young players. Not everyone develops at the same rate. J.P. Crawford is just finally reaching his potential now – over 4 years after he was traded. Pache has incredible tools and is not that that far off from Rojas in terms of his fielding. He’s useful even if he doesn’t develop any further. But, if he does develop, he has star potential, and he’s a great and cheap insurance policy for the outfield.

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    1. Absolutely agree. So many people were foaming at the mouth the get rid of JP just because he wasn’t a star from the jump. We can’t keep making that mistake (granted the trade was for a win-now move, so if Pache also brings us back a first division regular I’d consider it because we have decent OF depth).

       Pache is cheap and has an elite tool in his defense, plus he’s young enough and with enough talent that the bat COULD develop. Let the staff work with him. They did an excellent job with Marsh, and they think they can unlock something with Pache now. We’ve spent so many years trying to find an adequate CF, let’s not just start getting rid of them for the sake of it. Even if he’s never more than a defensive replacement, he doesn’t even hit Arb until 2025.

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    2. Crawford didn’t post above average WAR until age 25. He broke into the league at age 22 and let’s face it, the Phillies were in win now mode and weren’t going to wait. I had zero issues with the trade. Good for JP in turning his career around.

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    3. I know JP Crawford had a great year – and after all, Seattle ended up with an elite shortstop. That said – I recall a respected expert on this site saying that J P had “some types of behavior” that were not conducive to a “team” concept and he might have been construed to be a nonconformist. My read is the Phillies would have gotten rid of him no matter what – as he didn’t conform to the “Phillies way.” Just sayin’….or remembering.

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       1. There was that incident with Nick Williams and JPC at LHV about 6/7 years ago, and Dusty had a discussion with them about it….everything seem fine after at that time. And he may not have been too happy the way Gabe used him in 2018.

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          1. romus – my recollection is that he was just a very poor fit. It was alluded to but never stated. They obviously missed on the original draft pick – in terms of players head/demeanor/guts/team play etc. He, I am convinced, would not fit in with the Phillies team that we know and love. To dote on what might have been is a fruitless exercise. He will never have the selfless player skills of Turner who the team has filled ” in his supposed absence.”

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             1. Yeah…perhaps the fit would have been in question. He has done well in Seattle now and kuddos for him.

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    4. On one hand I agree about Pache but in order for him to develop he would need to play everyday. Even if you opened up Right Field I don’t think you can play both he and Rojas everyday.

       Marsh needs to continue to play everyday too IMO.

       The somewhat sad part about JP was we thought we were in “Win Now” mode before we actually were.

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       1. Maybe it would be ideal for him to play every day to develop, but it’s not essential. A lot of very good players have simply earned more playing time through their performance (Jayson Werth is a good example). I have zero problem taking that approach with Pache and if they feel he needs more time in AAA, they can try that too.

          As for J.P., my point had nothing to do with grading the Segura trade and everything to do with how long it can take some players to reach their potential. There is little but upside with Pache and he is cheap for a while still.

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    5. I’m sick of this tired Crawford narrative. He wasn’t traded because the Phillies were impatient with his development. He was traded because of his attitude. He was a clubhouse cancer. And, frankly, he would not have survived being a teammate with Harper.

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92. Brandon Woodruff has a right shoulder injury and will miss the wildcard series. That has totally shifted the Brewers odds.

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    1. Might miss the entire post season. That’s two NL playoff teams that are down an ace. Very rough news.

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       1. Brewers could tee off on DBacks’ Brandon Pfaadt on Tuesday….his ERA is approaching 6 this season….Pfaadt will have to fight tomorrow.

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          1. It will be interesting to see how the Brew Crew comes out with it being a foregone conclusion that Counsel leaves for the Mets

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       2. Just watched the press conference and Woodruff’s injury is a shoulder capsule. He may never pitch again at least not at the level he is now.

          I can’t think of a case where that shoulder injury didn’t hemorrhage a players career. Very Sad indeed!

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    2. Oh wow yes big time…

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       1. The New York sports teams need a boost………….naught!

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          1. Other than game 2 of the 80 World Series my father took me to when I was 11, I’ve never attended a Phillies playoff game.

             I have the greatest friends in the world. I will attend tonight’s game in a suite 🙂

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             1. That’s fantastic – have a great time!

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                1. Appreciate that Catch and you know I will…

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93. Can’t wait for the game tonight! Rosters announced. Lorenzen nbot on it. Wilson and Orion are. Pache starts tonight in LF. I would have started Marsh. I know the whole lefty vs lefty thing, but he, IMO, earned every day player status. Hoping Pache proves me wrong! I will be there a couple of hours early to soak in the whole atmosphere. Go Phils!!

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