191 thoughts on “Down the Stretch Accounting (Phillies Discussion)”

1. I predicted a 17-11 August for the Phillies and I think I am going with another 17-11 for the month of September.

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   1. Denny…what if they play 29 more games?

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      1. How about 13 more wins in the playoffs?

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         1. Let’s hope they win the playoffs and the World Series!!!!

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      2. What if they play more than 29 more games?

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   2. Were you right for your prediction for August?

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      1. Guess you called for a recount, 17-10, was the adjusted record. I was w-rrr-ooo-nn-ggg. Thought August had 32 days.

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         1. Wow! That’s pretty cool you keep track though. Keep doing that!

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2. Thanks Jim, I wanted to respond to Buddy Biancala’s post about the surprise of Painter, Abel and McGarry not pitching in the Big Leagues this season. Have you seen improvement from Abel since you mentioned a tipping his pitches issue? Who do you think that we call up. We need some fresh arms for the BP, but I don’t have any ideas. Do you have a dark horse?

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   1. Abel had two strong starts after the “Tipping” game. Twelve of the 15 HRs he has given up occurred at Reading. His only multi-HR game (4) was the “Tipping” game against Somerset. He’s approaching (97.2 ) his career high (108.1) for innings pitched. He’ll certainly surpass that mark if Reading makes the playoffs. He still needs to tighten up his command to lower his walk rate. I expect him to debut sometime next season.

      The callups were the activation of Suarez and Pache.

      I expect the Phillies to continue to work the bullpen the way they have all year – rotating established arms on the 40-man roster when someone becomes inefficient. In alphabetical order, they have the following available – Brogdon, Marte, Moore, Nelson, Ortiz, and Uelman.

      I don’t think there is a dark horse off the 40-man roster. Moore would probably be the dark horse from among the guys on the 40-man with Ortiz, Nelson, and Marte being the most likely recalls.

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3. Abel has had two good outings in a row. Great, great job, Jimbo on the summary for the remaining games.

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   1. Do you think Abel will be in the Major Leagues next year?

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4. Yes amazing job Jimmy breaking all of this down….

   Looks like we’ll miss Burnes and Woodruff drawing Peralta Miley and Houser…

   The Pads have shut down Yu…

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   1. It’s true, the Phillies are catching a break and dodging some elite starters on this upcoming 6 games road trip. As mentioned, they’re missing Burnes, Woodruff, Snell, Darvish is hurt, Musgrove is hurt. 3-3 is doable.

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      1. You know I think the Phillies missing so many good starters like this could be good for them. I think the Phillies should take advantage of this and try to win every game!

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   2. Missing good pitchers I think really could lead to a good advantage for the Phillies! They just need to win!

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5. Thanks Jim for pointing out that with the Phillies there’s never really a “soft” or “easy” part of the schedule. We should have learned this lesson by now!

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   1. Even though there may not be an easy part of the schedule for the Phillies, they have to remember this game of baseball is supposed to be fun. They can’t focus too much on the challenges. They have to focus and have fun!

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6. Hi Jim! After 2025 do you think or believe that Andrew Painter will be ready to pitch in the Major Leagues? Also how long do you expect him to need to recover and be ready to pitch in the Major Leagues?

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7. Bullpen is leaking some water down the stretch.

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8. There should be absolutely no more talk about how Bohm is a viable 3B. He butchered that ball big time. He’s a DH playing 3B.

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   1. The reality is that the Phillies have 4 terrible defensive players:

      Castellanos -12.5 career dWar
      Schwarber -9.1
      Harper -5.6
      Bohm -4.9

      Actually, it’s 5, because Hoskins (-6.3) is hurt.

      This is really not sustainable when usually HALF of your 8 man defence is this bad. I think the Phillies have no choice but to hide Harper at 1B, and they need to get rid of somebody because this team may be fun but we can’t be giving good teams extra outs and it totally cost us today.

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9. Bohm butchered a fielding play for sure. But, a reliever in the 8th inning, or any inning, should not be walking two players. And, a manager who has viable defensive replacements should not have Alex Bohm at 3rd base in the 8th inning with a two-run lead. There is more than one problem here, right? We can take a lesson from Trea Turner and not pile on Alex. And – perhaps stop referring to Topper as the greatest Phillies manager in living history. He has his good points, but…

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   1. The difference here is that Trea Turner has a previous history of being a 4 WAR player and positive dWar. So he did it in the past for many years, he just wasn’t doing it now until the standing ovations.

      Bohm has a history of being a poor fielder, and that’s what he is. No standing ovations is going to turn him into Placido Polanco.

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      1. You are 100% right, Guru, and that last play appeared to be just losing focus. But, wouldn’t you agree – and this goes right to your post above about the team defense, that Alex Bohm is not who you choose to have in the field (or Nick C, or Kyle S) when you are up by two runs in the 8th inning?

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         1. I do agree, Sosa should have been in there.

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      2. All the great fielders we’ve had and you go with Polanco? How about Schmidt, Rolen or even Feliz.

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         1. I was going with the most recent 3B, and I would rank Polanco 3rd, ahead of Feliz. And I’m a big fan of Polly, he’s not the biggest guy but he’s team first and he has an amazing glove who won GGs at 2B and 3B.

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10. Agree that Bohm missed the ball but his defense has been very solid this year and has proved himself to be a capable 3b. He’s not the same fielder that he used to be. Everyone makes errors and he’s made lots of great plays this year. As for Castellanos, his RF play has been way better than expected. He’s definitely improved since the beginning of last year. The Phil’s lost last night because Topper has no pen arms he can trust right now. Alvarado (2 walks killed them) and Dominguez both don’t look like themselves and Kimbrel looks very tired. I could see them move to a 5 man rotation after the 9/11 doubleheader and make Ranger a late inning relief pitcher. I expect we’ll see Marte brought back up too.

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    1. I wouldn’t say he’s a capable defender. He has become much more sure-handed defender and fairly reliable. But his range is really bad and that’s why his defensive metrics are always quite bad.

       But I think this team is brimming with positivity and I’m looking for them to figure this out and right the ship. They have their weaknesses, but this is a pretty darned good team and, to my mind, it’s their best hitting team since the 2007 and 2008 clubs. The bullpen is showing signs of wear now, but they are very talented there and I think they will bounce back. Look, everyone wants the next Mariano Rivera, but most have bullpens worse than the Phils.

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       1. Range at third base is overrated……unless you mean charging the slow rollers and flipping it over to first base.
          Range at shorstop and second bace is real, but third I do not see it.
          All the years I played third it was quicktwitchness first….and stretch…normally there is not sufficient time to take more than two steps left or right…usually one step in either direction and lunge.
          Bohm has the length for sure, but on routine plays, like last night, loses focus or just has a confidence issue.
          He will make plays that one can see are exceptional and unexpected…then there is the play last night.

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          1. So you’re saying forget the metrics and just use your eyes. Feel free to do that for yourself but I’m not buying it.

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             1. Not sure where you think, I think, the metrics are forgetable or irrelevant.
                …..Bohm botches the routine plays period….that is why his SDI, and dWAR metrics are well below average /poor.
                He gloves the ball and then makes an errant throw….he drops a fly ball, he lets a routine ground ball go thru the wickets…..there are not range factors involved in any of those physical errors.

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                1. I don’t think that’s right at all. He only has 4 errors at third this year yet he has a -23 runs saved at third. This isn’t about misplays this year. His range factor is what is driving almost all of this. He gets to almost one less ball a game at third than the standard third baseman. I don’t think it’s fixable at all. He has done what he can do.

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                2. Well it may never be fixable for Bohm.
                   Compare to other thrid basemen, ie Machado-2.65, Bohm’s range factor /9 measured is probably always going to be lower…Bohm-2.23
                   Then again his chances at third this year are minimal compared to last season…..he has only played 513 innings there (vs 502 at 1B) with 131 chances…those 4 errors still puts him under a .970 fld%
                   Sosa has more innings there than Bohm and more chances……though not that much better overall in the metrics area than Bohm.
                   Bottom line as vi mentioned earlier….he is cost controlled and he is adequate enough, only if the Phillies minimize his innings there and that appears to be their plan this season.

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11. Having watched Bohm last night as well I would suggest that he was looking at the base and his distance from it in order to make the force out – so he took his eye off the ball. As unforgiving as that error was – and it cost the game – given the way the bullpen has performed lately, there is no reason to think if he makes the play – they could have protected a 5-4 lead anyway. Either way then, that game was likely not winnable. The reference above to replacing defensively challenged players with what was on the bench was the answer – although, we are saying that with perfect hindsight. The game was really lost by Alvarado’s poor outing too.

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12. Murray, above, made a reference to bringing Marte back and converting Ranger back to the pen. I think Murray is on to something and that is a way to solve the pen’s problems now. Marte is not the answer but his inconsistency is no different than Alvarado and Seranthony right now but he has a fresher arm. Ranger still remains the best possible closer based upon his history and experience.

    Face it, DD brought in Kimbrel to be a piece of a rotating closer situation – instead, they hit gold and he returns to his former self and his velo picks up to 96-97. Now, at 35 years old, he is gassed and needs longer rests between appearances. As lucky as the team was with Kimbrel they have been equally unlucky with Soto who hasn’t had a good year. Thank heaven they stumbled onto Hoffman. But with a perfect rear view mirror it would have been optimal to have gotten another experienced reliever at the trade deadline ??

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    1. Relievers are a temperamental group. Devin Williams just gave up a HR to Trea, the Phillies were roasting the Giants closer Doval and he’s pretty solid, and David Robertson has been a nightmare for the Marlins since the trade.

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    2. RU………..you certainly make some good points in your post. The trait that just gets my Irish dander up is relievers that can’t throw strikes. Several nights back the reliever that came in had a really comfortable lead and he couldn’t throw a strike to save his dearie aire. It was a situation where just grove it the odds are in your favor. I just don’t get that, when you don’t have to “K” the guy with heat, just throw strikes and you can’t get it done. Hey, all of you have a fun Labor Day holiday.

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       1. Skeet…you also have a fun Labor Day,
          …..i may have to go this time with Margaritas and Cheeseburgers .

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13. This is where, and I know Bohm should have fielded that ball, we are hurt by having 2 guys in the BP, Covey and Bellatti, who can only be used in blow out situations. It’s also a shame that we don’t have a young guy who can come up and give us a fresh arm out of the ‘Pen.

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14. Bohm’s error last night could have been worse. It could have been the bottom of the ninth. If he makes the play, as a few guys already stated, the bullpen probably would’ve blown it in the bottom of the ninth. The past few games including the 12-7 win over the Angels have been really scary.

    Someone help me here. I know you can juggle players in the lineup as long as each player maintains his original spot in the batting order. 1B could go LF who could go to 3B who could move to 1B. They would keep their spot in the batting order. Could you do that with the DH? Or is the DH locked in?

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    1. If you move the DH, you lose your DH and then pitchers have to hit for themselves for the rest of the game.

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       1. That, however, may work with Mike Lorenzen when he is pitching…his bat is better than the average pitcher.

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15. Obviously, we don’t know how Ranger will Pitch when he goes tomorrow. Hoping he likes like his old self. If that occurs, won’t the team be better served with him as the #3 SP? Lorenzen’s No-no aside, his last 3 starts haven’t been inspiring. Sanchez seems to have lost his stuff a bit, and Taijuan has been a bit less than sharp. I am hoping Ranger looks really good, and we have a #3 we can be confident in, and hopefully 1 or 2 of the others can be a good BP option. As things stand now, I am hoping we have a sharp Nola and a good #3 SP, and the BP bounces back. I would like to be a bit less nervous as we embark on September.

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    1. I LOVE Ranger, but this year IMO he has not had mastery of the trait that made him so exceptional – the pinpoint control, where his strikeout to walk ratio was simply amazing, and he just painted the corners. I am sure he will be a help no matter what, but a big decrease from what he was last year without the return of that control.

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16. Two innings and over 50 pitches. Looks like a short outing for him tonight. His downfall was the 10 pitch Santana at bat. The Brewers might sweep the Phillies this year like the Cubs did last year.

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17. We can’t give Nola a big contract, and I have always been a fan. He cannot pitch against good teams with success. Hangs too many pitches. I don’t know why, but it is depressing!

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18. I was curious about something, so I went digging.

    After the last two nights, Schwarber had hit 9 leadoff homers. The Phils are 7-2 in those games. The last two games were the first two times we’d lost a game where he led off with a bomb.

    Ouch.

    Maybe we can return the favor and win this game since they’ve finally scored first…

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19. As a point of perspective, back in July if people had been presented the possibility of the Phillies being 15 games over 500 at the beginning of September, how many people would have thought that achievable?

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    1. Anyone who thought they would win 90 games thought it was achievable. They’re almost exactly on pace for that.

       I know the point is supposed to be that we were struggling to stay above .500 earlier in the year and now we’re comfortably there. But really it’s just been ~2 weeks of slumping as a team early on balanced out by 2 weeks of surging, and the rest of the year playing to about expectations.

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20. The best part of today’s win was watching Alec Bohm and Jose Alvarado (maybe my 2 favorite Phillies on a club filled with likeable dudes) rebound from disaster performances on Friday night. They’ve each had trouble doing that in the past.

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21. I didn’t get to see it, but followed the game on my phone. I won’t stream. But, very happy for Bohm and Alvarado. We will need Alvarado this month and in the Playoffs. The mental part is crucial, and having them bounce back quickly is great

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22. There is a very real possibility that Johan Rojas is the best defensive player in all of baseball. 11 DRS in one month. Unreal.

    https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2023/09/01/augusts-defensive-players-of-the-month/

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    1. I really hope the Phillies decide to keep Rojas out there in CF in 2024 fulltime and betond…no platooning.
       If they are able to put Marsh in LF and Pache to RF that could give them the best defensive trio in baseball.
       And I do beleive the three will hit enough.

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       1. They could get away with playing them not in a straight platoon, but a rotation for 2 of the 3 spots in the OF. But playing them all full time would not only be risky (Marsh has shown us enough that you can count on him to be an offensive contributor, but the other two will be huge question marks), but would also REQUIRE a trade of Schwarber and/or Castellanos.

          One of the two can be full-time DH with Harper at 1B. But then we have literally nowhere else to put the other one. And neither one of them is getting us much in the way of value in a trade. Plus, they’re both considered important to the clubhouse atmosphere (especially Schwarber, I think).

          Honestly, the best way to keep all three is probably to have Rojas play in AAA next year (he still has minor league options) with a call-up for injury replacements. Would give him more time to work on his offensive capabilities and an OF of Marsh-Pache-Castellanos is still very solid defensively (thanks exclusively to the first two; Nicky just needs a place to stand). And if Pache and Rojas prove they can hit enough to be starters, then the year after that you let the two older guys walk. That gives us a year to evaluate while also giving us a year to potentially have one of the younger guys step into the leadership role(s) that the older two would be vacating.

          But realistically, we probably would trade one of the two younger guys instead. Unless Pache’s SSS turns out to be just who he is now, it seems unlikely that they BOTH hit well enough long-term to be in the OF at the same time. There’s no doubt in my mind that the Phils want one of the OF spots to be used for a big bat. Rojas looks like a .280 hitter with basically no power but good speed. Which is definitely enough to be valuable with his defense in center. But if Pache isn’t much better than that, then I don’t think they’ll want to use one of their corner spots for that.

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       2. Pache is a 4th OF. He can’t hit RHP.

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       3. Not enough offense from those 3 in the OF

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       4. It seems like Pache is playing in place of Rojas the last couple of games – I’ve commented before that Pasche has the better “pedigree” but I think Rojas deserves to be the regular centerfielder unless he plays himself out of it.

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          1. Pache did have issues with RHP thru his minor league career (.251 BA), so with Hill, a LHP, on the mound Top decided to go with the averages.
             He does hit LHPing better tha RHPing
             But agree…..Rojas needs to be out there fulltime unless he plays himself out of it.
             Also, Marsh has to live down the stigma he had coming out of the minors….could not hit LHP…..257 BA….he has seem to make quite a bit of advancement under Long’s tutelage it appears over the last year.

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23. How can we pitch this guy in the Playoffs? I am thrilled we are winning 8-1, but I can’t watch Walker pitch. His FB lost 3-4 MPH, and he has no clue where this breaking stuff is going. He threw the same pitch high and inside about 30 times.

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24. I’m starting to think we need to have JT put a newspaper in his gear. So when these pitchers get a big lead and start walking people, he can use his mound visit to roll it up and smack them with it.

    “Bad pitcher! Don’t do that!”

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25. Why does this game not feel comfortable. Scoring runs but wasting a lot of opportunities with RISP.

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26. Agreed, 3up! From 8-1, have not trusted Walker. We had 2d and 3rd with 1 out in the 4th and 6th, and scored zero runs. I don’t trust our middle relief, so 9 runs don’t seem like enough.

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27. Just can’t throw strikes in the pen right now.

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    1. Never in doubt, we had them all the way! We were just toying with them.

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28. Hot take: Schwarber is an excellent choice for the leadoff spot. His batting average is misleading his impact and he is having a very good hitting season.

    First, some Phillies stats.
    – Schwarber is second on the team in OB% (behind Harper).
    – His 17.8% walk rate is second in all MLB
    – His 4.22 Pitches/PA is tops on Phillies and 9th overall in MLB
    – Schwarber has the second highest OPS on Phillies (again behind Harper). Only 2 Philllies are > .800 OPS
    – His pitcher handed splits are the same

    So he works deep counts. Gets on base at a high clip. While having huge power and is not impacted by the pitcher handed-ness. Sounds like a good lead-off guy to me.

    I understand his batting average is terrible. But his OB% is more important imo and when he does hit it, he has a ton of power. And his BA is suppressed by a BABIP that is 61 basis points lower than his career average. That with his hard hit rates and EVs at career averages. His ground ball rates slightly are below career averages. He is not swinging at pitches out of the zone. He is pulling the ball more this year, but they ended the shift, so we should expect a higher BA on pulled balls. But for whatever reason, this BABIP is significantly lower.

    He is also having one of his best hitting seasons of his career. He is 2nd in MLB in walk rate. 52nd in wRC+, 43rd in OPS, 33rd in Runs Above Average and 9th in ISO.

    That is a really good hitter. His defense is another matter. He is by far the worst defensive player in MLB. But as a hitter, he is having a really good year.

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    1. V1- I too have no problem with Schwarber as lead-off. With the bottom of the order getting on consistently he usually comes up with men on base later in the game. My only concern is how manger handles end of game situations.

       I would like to see pinch runner more late in a close game, and Schwarbs should never be on defense after the 7th inning in any game we have the lead. I still have playoff nightmares of the Bull.

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    2. I understand your point, and I have a special bottle reserved for when he bursts over the Mendoza line, but there is only a nickels worth of difference between Stott and Kyle on OBP. I would prefer Stott leading off, who has much better speed. Then put Schwarber somewhere where 26 solo shots out of 40 HRs can bear more production. We are 100% on him in the field. Anyone of our outfielderks would have caught that single that he left drop in front of him yesterday.

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       1. Yeah that was a horrific defensive play last night. terrible.

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    3. I like Schwarber as a DH a lot (and like the guy and teammate a bunch), but he doesn’t have the second highest OPS on the club – that distinction belongs to Brandon Marsh (.854) who is now probably the team’s third or fourth best position player (behind only Stott, Harper and perhaps Realmuto if you’re viewing most of this year as a fluke). Marsh has emerged as a first division regular outfielder this year. That is a HUGE development. Even though he hasn’t qualified for enough at bats for awards and the like, he has 3.1 WAR. And his eye is becoming as good as Schwarber’s or Harper’s – but he may have an even better ability to foul off pitches.

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       1. You are right about OPS. I had the “qualified hitter” filter on. If you remove that filter then Marsh has a better OPS. I love Marsh. I thing that his development is a huge lift for this team. Imo he needs to be the everyday LF for the next 10 years with a platoon of Rojas and Pache in center. I am hoping that come playoff time, Harper moves to 1B full time and Kyle moves to DH.

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          1. Here’s how pleasant the surprises have been with Marsh and Stott (much like my surprise last year with Jalen Hurts). Not only have they been much better than I expected them to be this year, they have been better than I ever expected them to be (especially Marsh) and there’s more growth in sight.

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             1. It really doesn’t get any better from a FO perspective than how DD worked with KL to get Marsh.
                1. Find a former top prospect with great tools who has under performed.
                2. Show video to an elite hitting instructor to see if he sees anything that can be fixed
                3. Use that knowledge to get him.
                4. Fix him.
                5. Young, controllable star.

                Unbelievable. Absolute perfection

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                1. Agree completely. They are trying to do the same now with Pache, with some very promising early returns.

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          2. You pointed out the flaws of Pache vs RHP (.251)and that goes back to his minor league career…Marsh, who I have liked from the trade last season, also had poor metrics vs LHP while thru the minors (.257)….and saw on this site his shortcomings vs LHPs
             But Marsh has made an adjustment.
             I believe Pache can also make an adjustemnt vs RHPs with assistance from KLong.

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             1. I hope so. That would be awesome

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29. We debate the Schwarber thing alot. But, the fact is the team’s record is much better with him as the Leadoff hitter. So, regardless of anything else, he is staying there. The more pressing question is what do we do about our Pitching? We cannot walk two guys for every Reliever. Walker was dreadful. Earning his 15th W is a misnomer. He did not earn it. Hoffman is now our most reliable RP? It was torture watching that game, and we had an 8-1 lead! And, if not for pure luck that the JT throw hit the Ump, they would have tied the game. I know I am venting after a W, but that was painful.

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    1. It was more painful for the Ump and then to make matters worse for the guy, the indignity of not even getting an “assist” by the official scorekeeper!!

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    2. Look, I am a big DD fan. Without him, we don’t go the WS last year and wouldn’t be playoff bound this year. He knows how to build a well-rounded team (much like Pat Gillick) and he is a good judge of young talent.

       BUT . . . . he’s not good at everything. Frankly, I don’t think he’s all that great at signing free agents and he is not particularly good at getting bang for the buck on free agent deals. His deals seem always to be too long, for too much, or both). I like Trea Turner, but that contract was crazy in its length and is likely to be a bad contract for a minimum of 4-5 years at the end – that’s a LOT of dead money. The Braves don’t hand out contracts like that. The Castellanos was contract was also not good – and, to me, that’s the one contract I would ache to move this off season, even if doing so would be at a loss (eating money). As I work through possible positional issues moving forward, while there’s a lot of things they could do, I think moving Nick gives them the most flexibility.

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       1. To finish the thought . . .

          This offseason, in addition to probably not signing Nola, I would:

          1. Trade Castellanos – take a loss, move on. He’s not a great offensive player and he’s a bad defensive player and he goes into long funks. But move him while he has some value.

          2. Schwarber to DH. Duh. He should almost never be in LF.

          3. Harper back to right, Rojas/Pache in Center, Marsh/Pache in left. Marsh would get notably more ABs than Pache and Rojas – just sitting against the most difficult lefites.

          4. Sign Hoskins for one year or sign another 1B who has better production than Castellanos.

          5. Extend Ranger now, while he is still pretty cheap. Buy out a couple of FA years. Give him a contract like the one Nola has now. You won’t be sorry.

          6. Shop the starter market. Don’t be afraid to a do a pricey one year deal while you wait for your young arms to develop.

          7. Start asking Wheeler about a 3 year extension and do one if he’s healthy and willing to give a team-friendly deal. This year Wheeler did a few things that should allow him to age better. He’s learned how to throw a rising/spinning 4 seam FB and a sweeper. The rising FB should keep him very competitive even if he loses a few MPH in velocity.

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          1. What the Phillies were looking for in Taijuan Walker was essentially what the Rays got in Zach Eflin (7th in fWAR for pitchers). I don’t entirely blame the Phillies for not signing him. He was hurt a lot and seemed to have chronic knee problems. Walker is frustrating to watch, however. He always looks like a guy who is in his second or third big league season. There’s so much inconsistency.

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             1. So, here’s the deal with Walker. He continually struggles with command or with velocity or with something. I think that’s always been the case and it’s probably always going to be the case. He will have dominant stretches and stretches where he looks like a AAA journeyman. But he has a few out pitches, including a splitter that, when it’s on, allows him to shut down another team completely. If he stays healthy, he’s going to pitch in the big leagues for a really long time, but you’ll pretty much always feel he should be better.

                Walker is okay and he does eat some innings. He may even pitch to the value of that contract. But really good organizations generally don’t do the Walker contract or the Castellanos contract. Just my two cents.

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                1. And, maybe these contracts are just a bridge to a more sustainable future and better guys from the farm system. I hope so.

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       2. I don’t think that it is possible for a GM to be good at signing FAs. By definition, a team has to over pay for a FA. It is the last option for roster building really.

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          1. It’s funny, I knew this was going to be the response, although I didn’t know who would say it (namely, that free agents are being paid at the top of the market and, therefore, it’s really not possible to get a good free agent deal).

             I’m not really buying it. I realize you’re going to pay good money for free agent deals, but that still doesn’t mean you can’t find the right deals. The Zack Wheeler deal was a great one, as was the Harper deal. Both were great deals even though the team paid a lot of money because the team got exceptional value in return.

             Is it harder to get a fair deal or even a great deal in free agency? Absolutely, but the good teams find more than their fair share of the good/reasonable deals.

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             1. And by good deal, I don’t necessarily mean cheap. I mean, you could pay $20 m per year for Castellanos or $25 m a year for Freddie Freeman. Who won that competition? It’s not even close, right? Even if Freeman is mediocre in year 5 and bad in year 6, which I am not conceding will happen.

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                1. But, catch, it still has to do with the position the team needs and where a player wants to go. In Freeman’s case, we were not moving on from Rhys Hoskins to sign Freddie, even if he wanted to come here. Now, maybe you believe we should have and you may be correct, but to me the question is why did we need Castellanos after signing Schwarber, when both were looked at as DHs. We didn’t know at that time that Bryce would need TJ surgery. You question the Castellanos and Turner signings. I think the Turner signing was roundly applauded at the time, and I am still a big fan. I don’t like to second guess the organization when they do exactly what I want them to do. That was sign Harper, not Machado, and Trea over the other SS options. But I doubt that there was ever a thought of Castellanos vs Freeman.

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                2. I am just saying, if you’re going to pay a free agent, you’ll usually pay a good sum, but it’s your job as the GM to get your money’s worth. That’s the salient point here; the overarching comment – not whether they could have specifically gotten Freddie over Castellanos.

                   The Castellanos deal was extremely risky. He had one outstanding year and a lot of years like this one – where he hit pretty well, but all of his other metrics were bad. To me, this was a bad gamble.

                   As for Turner, we all loved the player and I still do. But the contract is insanely long – 3-5 years beyond the player’s likely useful life as a productive (2+ WAR) big leaguer. I do like DD, but he has a bad history of paying guys too much for too long. His Miguel Cabrera contract was a disaster. So I’m going to enjoy Trea Turner here for 5 or 6 years, but at the end of that deal, when DD is off enjoying retirement, I don’t think I’m going to be too happy about it, but perhaps someone can move the contract in year 6. I don’t know.

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                3. If Turner retires in 8 years , at 38-years old, with three years still left on the contract, does he still get his money?…..and if so, do the Philies still have to count it under the luxury tax threshold?

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                4. @Romus

                   If he retires voluntarily (not medically), then he gets no more money and it comes off the Phillies’ books entirely. Basically, he’s choosing to break the contract so it’s no longer binding for the team.

                   Of course, the Phillies could give him a sum that exactly matches what he’s still owed after he voluntarily retires. Completely unrelated to him retiring, of course. I’m joking, of course, but players that feel ready to retire that are still under contract will sometimes work out a deal to get some of that money in exchange for retiring before the contract runs its course.

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                5. Dan….ok, thanks.
                   The possibilty does always exist on medical issues as the player ages……and even in Harper’s case with his back concerns.
                   And I can see Tuner or maybe Harper calling it a career once they cannot produce like they think they should…a pride thing, the money at that point could be a moot point. And then there is the family aspect with growing children and wanting to be there with them ilo of being on the road for months every year.

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30. Greetings from beautiful San Diego, where the weather is nice but I’m still sweating because the pitching kept on walking guys. Man, watching them walk guys in person is agonizing. And I thought Petco was supposed to be a pitcher’s park, the ball was flying down the left field line. The ball hit by Trea was a tracer. Gary Sanchez almost did the same thing but it was just foul. Anyways, beautiful park, food doesn’t look great, and let’s hope for 2 more wins.

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    1. And it’s so cool how easy it is to go from there through the gaslamp district (fun, not crazy and totally relaxed) or to the Marriott (it used to be a Marriott) that is attached to the stadium. San Diego rocks!

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       1. The gaslamp area is nice, but to be honest, it’s a little dirty. And there’s a lot of empty, rundown buildings in certain parts. And once you get past the gaslamp area mainly going north or west, it gets really sketchy and sidewalks are filthy.

          But if you head to the marina area, that’s a nice area. And the Midway museum was totally worth it.

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    2. Awesome. Enjoy!

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    3. Petco made the dimensional changes 10 years ago now.
       Only left and right center field changes

       2012-LF-336′..no change in 2013
       2012-Left Center-402’*****
       2013-LeftCenter-390’*****
       2012-Center-396’…no change in 2013
       2012-RightCenter-402’*****
       2013-RughtCenter-391’****
       2012 RF-322’…no chnage in 2013

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31. Who will be available in the Phillies bullpen tonight? I hope Lorenzen can give them at least 6 innings.

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    1. Stramm, Hoffman, I say.

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32. Castellanos is definitely the player of the game tonight. Just happens to be for the Padres. And that’s saying something considering Lorenzen’s outing.

    3 GIDP in 3 PAs is unreal.

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    1. Tell me about it, I had to sit through that. The Phillies were just pounding everything into the ground. People (on both sides) were starting to leave by the 7th inning. I took off after the Phillies hit in the 8th.

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    2. The Castellanos contract will go down as one of the worst in Phillies history. It is very possible that it turns out to be $100 million for negative WAR. it is painful watching him play. He seems to have zero approach at the plate. sometimes I think that he looks like he told himself to swing at the next pitch no matter where it is. DD generally does a good job, but this contract was a stinker.

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    3. Nick Castles was a big rally killer last night.
       After last night he is now only three behind teammate Alec Bohm who is at 6th place in GIDP category.
       1 Carlos Correa…….. 29
       2 Ty France…………… 24
       3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr…21
       4 Xander Bogaerts…..20
       4 Nolan Arenado ….. 20
       6 Masataka Yoshida…..19
       6 George Springer…..19
       6 Alec Bohm………19
       22. Nick C……………16

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    4. If I heard right, one of the announcers said 3 gidp’s on 4 pitches. Guess he wanted to get it over asap? I told my wife on Monday night after they jumped out in front hitting the long ball that they won’t do anything tomorrow. Its their MO.

       I didn’t think Lorenzen did too bad until the 6th. Stott’s error didn’t help early on. Have any of you noticed (5th inning on) that he starts falling off the mound in his delivery, landing on 1 foot, getting his feet crossed. I think probably season fatigue is taking effect.

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33. The team seems to have only one reliable starting pitcher. You don’t know what you are going to get from the other guys. Very worrisome for the playoffs.

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    1. That’s true at the moment, but it can change quickly. This rotation is, however, significantly better than the one that won the WS in 2008. That team had a better bullpen and better team defense. I think this team has a slight edge on offense due to the extreme depth of this lineup.

       One the whole, this is a better team than last year’s team as well, although this team has a number of flaws to be sure. Whether they can go as far as last year’s in the playoffs is another thing altogether (I mean, really, who knows?).

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       1. It all comes down to what is the competition, Braves are much more powerful this year.

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          1. Denny…….no doubt Braves are a power packed lineup, but aside from Strider and Fried, I think the other starters can be had.
             Morton and Elder have not been as dominant as Strider and the returning Fried. Both Morton and Elder, have had their ups and the occasional downs this season.
             My concern is can Wheeler, Nola, Walker or Ranger keep that potent lineup in the stadium.

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             1. We as fans tend to not see other team’s results like we do our own.

                Pitcher #1 last 5 games
                6 ip – 4 earned runs, 4 hits, 2 bb, 9 ks
                7 ip – 1 earned runs, 3 hits, 1 bb, 9 k
                7 ip, – 0 earned runs, 1 hit, 1 bb, 10 k
                7 ip, – 0 earned runs, 3 hits, 4 bb, 6 k
                2.2 ip. – 6 earned runs, 5 hits, 3 bb, 3k

                Pitcher #2 last 5 games
                4.2 ip – 7 earned runs, 8 hits, 3 bb, 5k
                7 ip, 0 earned runs, 1 hit, 1 bb, 9k
                7 ip, 2 earned runs, 7 hits, 1 bb, 5 k
                5 ip, 4 earned runs, 4 hits, 4 bb, 7 k
                5 ip, 1 earned runs, 5 hits, 1 bb, 6 k.

                Comparing the2 starters, pitcher #1 was slightly better (Strider) but pitcher #2 wasn’t significantly worse (Aaron Nola)

                Phillies won 4 of the 5 games started by Nola same as Atlanta with Strider.

                I’m not arguing that Nola is better than Strider but rather what happens come playoff time will be determined by how each guy performs in those situations. We look at Nola’s starts and say he’s not pitching well enough while Strider is considered to be an ace.

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                1. It actually is a big difference. Strider’s ERA is 3.33 over that span. Nola’s is 4.333. Sound like their whole seasons in a nutshell, doesn’t it?

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                2. Not really. Both pitchers had 3 solid outings, 1 subpar and 1 terrible game. Strider was better overall but the game outcomes were the same.

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                3. But you also cherry-picked this time period. During July, Nola was horrendous. He pitched to over a 9 ERA when Strider’s ERA was 3.73. Look, I was one of Nola’s biggest defenders and, who knows, maybe he turns it on in the playoffs, but, this year, he’s been distinctly worse than Strider.

                   The question is whether Nola is going to figure it out and have a career rebound or just kind of become a #3 starter. Honestly, I could see it going either way.

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                4. Cherry picked nothing. Baseball reference reports last 5 starts which is what was used. For the 100th time, not declaring Nola better than Strider, just noting that either pitcher is capable of either pitching a gem or getting rocked cone playoff time.

                   Not sure why you choose to keep arguing something never stated.

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                5. Yeah, okay – just trying to engage in a friendly debate. Agreed that both starters are capable of either blowing up or dominating a game. All things being equal, I think you’d prefer to have Strider on the mound, although he may be wearing down due to reaching innings pitched levels he has never approached before.

                   More than anything, when I watch Nola pitch, I think his regression isn’t entirely his fault. I think the hitters have become a lot better and that improvement is now magnified with the lack of shifts. I wouldn’t say control-based righties (he’s not a soft tosser, but he also isn’t a power pithcer) are a thing of the past, but I think it has become harder and harder for them to succeed because the margin for error for these pitchers is very small. And we’ve seen that with Nola – it seems every time he throws a hittable pitch, it gets hammered.

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       2. This team versus 2008 offensively is an interesting comparison. Especially considering both teams’ best hitters are at essentially the same positions. 2B Utley wins easily. 1B Harper is better than Howard overall (although Howard is the better power hitter, obviously). And then (corner) OF, Marsh has had a slightly better year than Werth had in 2008.

          The current team’s depth is enviable for sure. It’s crazy that we have literally an entire line-up of above-average hitters (depending on which bench player is playing). But on the other hand, that’s largely to do with offensive environments.

          By rate stats, the two teams are eerily similar.

          2008:
          .255/.332/.438

          2023:
          .259/.329/.440

          Additionally, the current team is currently on pace to hit almost EXACTLY the same number of homers as 2008 (on pace for 213.7, 2008 team hit 214). But the 2008 team is better at baserunning.

          So in context of respective eras, I agree that this is the better offensive team. But in a vacuum, I’m not sure that’s true.

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          1. Yeah, no, You have overlooked a key difference. The 2008 team had 8 hitters in the lineup. The 2023 team has 9 hitters because of the DH. The slash for the 2008 team sans pitchers was .263/.341/.454/.795.

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34. I vented about Walker’s performance Monday night, but this is a guy who takes ownership of a bad outing, and made zero excuses, and vowed to do better. I have to give him kudos for standing up like that. we have always gotten that from our teams, but this Phillies team seems to have a bunch of stand up guys, and that is one of the reasons they are so easy to like. Counter, IMO, to the Sixers team that calls Philly home.

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35. Only my opinion, but I look at the Braves this way. In 2011, we had, I believe, the best team in Baseball. We lost in excruciating fashion to the Cards. I don’t care how good the Braves look, we have to play the games. They, as good as they are, are not close to what I thought our pitching staff was in 2011. If we lost, the Braves can too.

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36. Yeaaaaah! 27 th solo shot.

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37. Terrible job by offense. Hitting with RISP has been terrible in this series.

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    1. Yep, my point, if Kyle is down in the order, you pick the spot, tally is greater than +1.

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38. Can anyone drive in a run? This team would race to a world championship if they could hit in the clutch. Even a flare with the bases loaded would be welcome.

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    1. Phillies are 7th in MLB RISP….BA .259
       Braves are first @ .275

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       1. Where did you get those numbers?

          Just curious because Fangraphs has them at 12th with a .261 average (and Brewers 11th at .266).

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          1. DanK….StatMuse snapshot…..I do not know the date of the latest metric.
             https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/team-average-with-runners-in-scoring-position

             I believe this is a fluid metric until after the season ends. Next week the Phillies could fall one or two or advcne up one or two percentage points.

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       2. Again 5-16 with RISP today. As Andy Reid would say, every Phillie player should say “I got to do a better job”.

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          1. 3 -16.

             5-16 would actually be really good (.3125 average).

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             1. Thanks. Fat fingers again.

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39. Wouldn’t be a bullpen outing without some walks.

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40. I’ll say this for sure; this team will scare EVERYONE we face in the post season… when Wheeler is pitching.

    The fact that any part of our lineup can put up runs while Wheeler is perfectly capable of silencing the offense is intimidating. We just really, REALLY need our other pitchers to not give them some confidence. They don’t need to be the second coming of Koufax out there. Just keep the opponents from putting up lopsided numbers to get them going.

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41. Also, the Phils just got more luck on avoiding stud pitchers, and we may have just heard the death knell of the Marlins’ playoff hopes;

    Alcantara and Soler both put on the IL. Forearm strain for Sandy and oblique strain for Soler. Not good.

    Alcantara was supposed to pitch game 3 against Ranger in the upcoming series, so extremely good timing for us. But I hope it’s not something that requires surgery because baseball is better when the elite players are healthy.

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42. What’s your guys thoughts for the pitch clock … for the post season? Regular season im good with. For the post season I wish they would do away with it or extend the time, so the cat & mouse games can shine more. It takes some teams decades to make the playoffs (cough cough) I’m in no hurry to see it end!

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    1. Love it in the regular season and post season. IMO, the playoffs should have the same rules as the regular season.

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       1. Agree…sans extrra inning ghost runner.
          Glad they decided to keep it the way it use to be for the play-offs

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          1. Yes, they nailed it.

             I went on this site for years complaining about the length of games and how they were losing fans and, on many occasions, me.

             They are making the basic game move without sacrificing any of the essentials. The ghost runner is the one “fiction” that isn’t really that great for purists, but during the regular season? It makes games end in a reasonably quick manner and is worth whatever is lost in the name of purity, especially since it is eliminated during the playoffs.

             Everything they’ve done has been great and has improved the game.

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    2. Agree, love the pitch clock and no reason the playoff games should grind at a slower pace. They don’t change other rules for the playoffs like allowing the shift, shrinking the bases, etc.

       I don’t find it to be more dramatic watching the batter stand out of the box for 40 seconds between pitches or seeing the pitcher walking around behind the mound.

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43. I totally agree with Jim. The same rules sh ould apply in the post season. Would no pitch clock help Nola, and therfore my team? Sure, but the rules should stay the same. And, Wheeler gave us an Ace performance yesterday. I thought the bases loaded situation after Schwarber’s HR, with no outs in the 1st, and failing to score another run would come back to kill us. But, Zack made sure that didn’t happen.

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    1. Hmm … I’d of thought you guys would be for extended the clock, with so much on the line.
       My concern is that the batter is too rushed in the postseason. If my memory serves me , players were grumbling about the pitch clock in postseason and the compromise was adding 5-10 secs per pitch. To me, that’s no big deal. You battle through 162 gm season, you should get the benefit of more time .

       I’m definitely NOT a fan of the extra innng man starting on 2nd in the playoffs. That’s garbage imo. Just like the nhl doesn’t decide games by shootouts in the playoffs.

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       1. absolutely agree on the ghost runner issue. It’s a gimmick that should not be part of playoff baseball.

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          1. What I do not like that they currently utilize…is the club setting their rosters prior to each series….Wild Card Games, divsional series’ , pennant series and World Series.
             I think they should let the managers have the option to decide the roster construction one additional time, at his own discretion, thru that respective series.

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             1. And the owners are going to give up this control, why? Manfred isn’t going to screw over his bosses like that.

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                1. Do not understand how and why the owners will be giving up control.
                   Why would they care who their managers select to be on the active roster for a particular game…..all players get contractily paid irregardless if they are active or not activated onto the 26 man roster.
                   I would think the owners would want their managers to have the option to select particular players for a deciding game..

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                2. I don’t understand your comment. If you give the manager the control notwithstanding what the team wants, the team is giving up control over that decision. It is not the manager’s decision, it’s an organizational decision and there’s no reason for the organization to surrender that one decision to the unilateral control of the manager. And it has nothing to do with who is being paid. It has everything to do with who you want to get playing time and compete for a roster spot for the postseason. No way this changes.

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                3. Speak English…..I hear enough of legalese.
                   How about a concrete example:
                   Phillies vs Cubs Wild Card Series
                   Series tied one game apiece , last game coming up.
                   Top should have the option/authority , in my suggested proposal, to deactivate the game two starter or any player, and add one additional player.. a.pitcher or a position player from the Phillies’ 40.

                   Right now he cannot do that unless a player is injured.

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                4. Hey Romus, I like you but, after reading your snarky comment I really wanted to say ____ off, learn to read English.

                   Anyway, decisions made by teams between games are just that, team decisions. They are not surrendering those decisions to the manager. It’s never going to happen.

                   And, please cut it out with the personal attacks.

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                5. My sincerest apologies my friend……just thought managers should have a little more strategical leeway in critical play-off series’

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          2. For extra innings, here’s what I would do:
             Inning 10: no ghost runner
             11: runner on first
             12: runner on second
             13: runners on first and second
             14 and beyond: bases loaded

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             1. Not a bad idea, kind of like it, but I’m probably still keeping it old school with no ghost runners in the playoffs. Regular season, it’s not a bad plan

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44. Great outing by Abel last night! If memory serves me correctly, that’s 3 solid starts in a row. That is refreshing with the Painter injury and McGarry struggling mightily.

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    1. Abel has tremendous ability. His development has been slightly slower than expected, but he still has ace (or at the very worst, #2 starter) potential. The arm and stuff are excellent. If he can improve his command, the sky’s the limit.

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       1. “The arm and stuff are excellent. If he can improve his command, the sky’s the limit.”

          I feel like we hear that every year about one or two of our pitching prospects, and then the prospects that end up being our best pitchers are the ones who already have good command/control and take a step forward with a pitch or two.

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          1. From the recent past…a few examples like, Francisco Morales, Erik Miller, Josh Davis.

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             1. With all due respect, Morales, Miller and Davis cannot hold a candle to Abel, who has great ability and pedigree. Abel is a different (and better) beast than those other guys.

                Also, Abel has shown signs of improving his command/control although it’s not as quickly as one might like. That said, in his last 3 starts he’s allowed a grand total of 5 hits. He can be effective even if his walk rates are a little higher than normal.

                So we are not talking about whether this guy can pitch in the big leagues. It’s pretty obvious that he can and will absent an injury. The issue is whether he will be a mid-rotation starter or top of the rotation starter.

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                1. I’m not saying you’re wrong in this particular case, but it’s also a common refrain that the current crop of prospects at the time are, “different and/or better” than previous prospects that failed to make an impact on the big club.

                   Don’t get me wrong, I’m excited and hopeful for Abel’s potential. But I am also concerned that we’ve seen this play out before. It really makes it all the more heartbreaking that we were robbed of Painter this year (and next), because he truly looked like he was ALREADY a major league starting pitcher. He wasn’t lacking in anything that makes a major leaguer a major leaguer. Abel isn’t there yet. His odds of being at least a #5 are better than 50% at this point, I’d say. But that doesn’t mean it’s absolutely going to happen, either.

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                2. Certainly, Abel carries more than a little risk and almost any pitching prospect will look bad compared to Painter, who, depending on how you view it, is either our best or second-best (after Hamels) pitching prospect over the last 20 years.

                   Interestingly, I went back and looked at Wheeler’s early career and his walk rates as a younger player were very similar to Abel’s. Obviously, this anecdotal, but these improvement in control do happen. On odds, I would think/hope that Abel’s odds of being better than a #5 are quite a bit better than 50% (assuming no injuries), but I guess we will have to see.

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45. New rule proposal – see your guys appetite for this change:
    Current: runner must have hand/extremity stay on bag
    Change: in a bang bang play – think SB attempt or pushing for a triple, when the runner initially beats the Throw, they would be safe. In this case the 2B/SS/3B could apply a tag and push the base runners hand off the base to be called out. The change allows the runner to beat the throw, but if they over slide the bag, they are no longer out, more like a bang bang play at 1st base. I hate seeking a player beat the throw and they slide off or the defensive player pushes their hand off the bat to be called out. I’ve seen it a good but this year in highlights

    Small change but in tight game is when it reads it’s ugly head

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46. Phillies are getting help from Arizona who have won the first two games of a four-game series at the Chicago Cubs. Cubs have been outscored 7-2 in the two games (6-2, 1-0) after a three-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants whom they outscored 24-10.

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    1. Marlins were hot before the Dodgers blew them out in their last game 10-0….hopefully they still feel the numbness from that loss over the weekend.

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47. If we’re proposing rule changes, here’s one I would like to see. Take away the BS time out by the batter. It almost always occurs on an 0-2 or 1-2 count after two successive strikes, usually after a called strike that the batter didn’t like. It has become pretty automatic. I can do without it.

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    1. If you get rid of the batter timeout, then you’d need to do away with the one for the pitcher (catcher) as well, in my opinion.

       It can be kind of annoying because pretty much every hitter uses it to attempt to disrupt the pitcher’s flow. But on the other hand… pitchers already have the overwhelming advantage, so hitters could use whatever little help they can get.

       Plus sometimes it’s legitimately because their grip is slipping on the bat or something to that effect. And I’d rather they not be afraid of the bat going flying when they swing.

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48. We’re getting awfully close to having Trea Turner have a higher batting average than Castellanos. Trea’s already eclipsed him in HRs and walks, and is only 4 behind in doubles (while being 4 ahead in triples…).

    This is getting ugly for Nick. And I don’t think an ovation is gonna help this time.

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    1. Yeah, the guy in front of him walks on 4 pitches and he swings at the 1rst pitch that is a ball and dribbles a weak grounder to ss to end the inning with the bases loaded. Gonna take more than an ovation, me thinks (that’s irish)!

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       1. Me thinks this should be Casty’s last year as a Phillie. They need to make room for too many potentially more productive players

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          1. Frank……if the Cubbies lose Bellinger to free agency, perhaps Dombrowski can get them to buy in on Castellanos, with the Phillies picking up a significant portion of the $60M over three years left on the contract….Cubbies have some quality pitching prospects in their system……maybe even get Ben Brown back.

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49. Some absolutely horrible sliders from Seranthony. I get the same feeling with him that I do when Covey enters a game right now.

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    1. nick c on pace for 187 k’s and 33 walks. his obp trending to sub .300. time to get him out of the 3-4 hole. the last 2.5 months are very similar to 2022

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50. Shohei Ohtani will be the most-watched free agent in baseball history, and the most watched in sports since LeBron James.

    So who is actually in contention to land him?@JimBowdenGM spoke with executives around the league to find out.https://t.co/JAHt6VGas4

    — The Athletic (@TheAthletic) September 8, 2023

    .

    Jim Bowden spoke to more than a dozen MLB execs.
    Here’s what he reports:

    ▪ Ohtani enters free agency w/an open mind
    ▪ Winning rings supersedes geography
    ▪ Probably going to take 500M to sign him
    ▪ Phillies make list of 10 possible destinations

    ******

    Now … the odds of Ohtani becoming a Phillie are pretty long IMO, but you know DD will at least make a pitch. Another deep postseason run this fall can’t hurt.

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51. 4-9 went 1 for 21. Castles should have learned from hitting into 3 DPs on 4 pitches that maybe he needs to be a bit mor patient! But, no! JT with some pretty weak ABs as well. I thought SerA had decided to challenge hitters again? Why throw that crap slider with 2 strikes ? Blow it past him!

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    1. Like v1 mentioned,
       …Castellanos’ contract could be a real disappointing signing over the long run.
       IMO, one year too long, and $5M AAV too much.
       The way it is currently structured…..Dombrowski will have to perform his magic to move on from him, onto another team.

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       1. Heck, I’m disappointed by it right now.

          Even when he wasn’t slumping for 2 months, I wasn’t super thrilled with how much money he was making (and for how many years) to be awful in the field and only above average offensively.

          I doubt we have any takers for his contract this offseason, but if he starts hot again next year we gotta try moving him. It’s one thing to punt defense when we’ve got no better options, but we’re starting to have a very crowded outfield. And his bat just isn’t worth his defense, let alone also blocking some very promising young players.

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          1. In two months from now I will be interested in hearing Dave Dombrowki’s postt-season presser and what he says about the players, in partucular what he says about Castellanos.
             There is always the GM speak on how happy they are overall with the player, but then what follows, at times, is that parsed caveat.

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             1. Don’t think he will say anything. By the end of the season, Castellanos is going to have a normal career season with 25 hrs and 90+ RBI. Guy was the team’s AS representative 🙂

                The frustration with him is that he’s been extremely streaky this year, much like that Hoskins guy that also frustrates people for the same reason.

                Biggest difference is that Hoskins is a more patient hitter and walks more while Castellanos hits more more average.

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                1. No, the BIGGEST difference between them is that Hoskins’ WORST offensive season is better than Castellanos’ career aggregate (112 wRC+ versus 111, respectively).

                   He was our AS representative because he started hot while most of the rest of the team was ice cold. Plenty of guys make All Star teams that don’t end up being effective players on the year as a whole. And his selection was the perfect storm; we had to have a rep by rule, Bryce was still recovering from surgery, Trea (especially), Schwarber, and JT were in ungodly slumps, Wheeler had a couple rough starts that made him look worse than he was, and Alvarado was injured. Plus he had name recognition, and all star voters don’t tend to care about defense. Because if they did, he would have never been picked over Marsh or Stott.

                   And no, the frustration with him is that he needs to be excellent offensively to offset his god awful defense. But he’s not. He’s slightly above-average. So he’s going to be a 1 WAR player. Making 20 million a year. Or if he DOESN’T break out of his current slump (and soon), he won’t even be that. And he’ll be net negative value over his first two years here. Again, making 20 million a year.

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                2. Longer post needs to be approved, I think.

                   So in the meantime I’ll just say this; All Star selections don’t necessarily mean the player had a good year, Hoskins is WAY better than Castellanos, and the reason people are frustrated with him is because he MIGHT be a 1 WAR player this year if he breaks out of his slump… and he’s making 20 million a year.

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       2. I suspect they will have to eat at least half of his remaining $60m, but it would probably be worth it at this point.

          One thing that puzzles me is RT’s refusal to move him out of the 3-5 spots in the line-up. Even though Realmuto isn’t especially hot, I’d flip them in the order right now and NC batting somewhere 6-8.

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52. Zack Wheeler gave us an Ace performance the last time out. Sanchez was really good last night. And, I want to see Aaron Nola come close to Wheeler’s performance tonight. We need him to step up. 7 innings, 2 runs or less, and I know we can hit Johnny Cueto. We know that Ranger will still be on a limitation, so if we get 5 from him, we are lucky, then there is the DH on Monday. So, Nola needs to be prime Nola, for himself, the team, the BP. So, 7 innings, we lead 8-1, and Dylan Covey can finish it up. Well rested BP for tomorrow. What’s wrong with a little optimism?

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53. Well, I had the 8 runs right, but counting on Nola was a sucker’s bet that I fell for! Happy we won, but he has cost himself a bundle and whatever we offered that he turned down was dodging a bullet.

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    1. It’s really sad. Nola’s season reminds me somewhat of 2009 Hamels. But with Hamels, we still could see the same pitcher in there and I never lost faith in him.

       Nola looks like a different pitcher (he still flashes his old self for parts of games, but never seems to keep it together). And, unlike Hamels, I lost faith in Nola a while ago now.

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       1. Dan…listening to Top post -game…..he is at a loss why Nola will suddenly go into a funk after 3 or 4 excellent innings…..maybe working out of the stretch, maybe hitters after the first or second AB have his number…who knows.
          At this point……he has maybe 3 starts left, use an opener like Soto for two innings.
          Time to ensure wins now with these last 20 or so games.

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54. I have not seen any games recently, but the Phillies seem to be staying in command of the WC. I just saw an article on the remaining games of the contenders. See the Phillies have several games with the Braves coming up. Think 7. Do you guys see that as a positive or negative. I know the Braves keep winning but do you think they will go all out in these games with the playoffs in the horizon and a good possibility they could meet the Phillies down the road.
    NC kind of reminds me of Dave Kingman of days gone by with the Mets. All or nothing in results. I see he batted 8th last night. Highlights said first time in many years. But to me production should determine where you bat. You earn your spot with some exceptions for game matchups. Nola has had a roller coaster year. But that has been his norm now for quite some time. I wonder too if he regrets turning down the offer but there will be someone out there who will open the checkbook. There always is.

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    1. Playing the Braves is absolutely a negative. They’re the best team in baseball and they can’t mathematically clinch the 1st seed before they play us. So they’re not resting anyone against us (not sure they’ll rest anyone regardless). They want that 1st seed for home field advantage throughout the post season.

       Plus, if they really beat us down they could potentially knock us into the 3rd wildcard (or even out of the playoffs entirely…), which means they can avoid us in the playoffs for as long as possible). And despite all our faults as a team, NO ONE wants to play us in a short series. The Braves know first hand what we’re capable of when you only need a couple wins.

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55. There is a lot of talk about NC and his future here, Don. But it was overdue to move him down in the lineup and it worked last night. Key 2B, a walk, didn’t swing no matter what. Nola just mystifies me. He has innings where he just lises his entire ability to command his stuff which is the skill, command, that got him here. Has to be mechanical and why Caleb can’t spot something I don’t know.

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    1. The issue could be that he doesn’t have enough time to consistently find his grip with the new pitch clock. He was always a fairly slow worker, so that would track.

       I don’t know if that’s something that he can even overcome if it is the issue.

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56. Almost impossible to believe we are blowing this game! Ser’A is just terrible and we should have scored more against this Marlins BP. Too much looking at pitches because we didn’t like the strike call on the pitch before.

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57. Team swings and misses too much. Sosa swinging like a maniac when he just needs to make contact

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    1. What awaits:
       Mon.-Morton, TBD… Tues.-Fried… Wed.-Strider.
       Team better not miss too many in the next three days.

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58. Agree 3up, he just needed a fly ball not a 500 foot HR! Also, I have complained all year about Covey but he just came in trying to keep the deficit to1, and did a really good job!

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59. 1-9 with RISP! Some truly bad ABs today, but Ser’A needs to be in LHV

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60. Team in a small slump…last 10 games…4-6

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61. Very poor at bats by Sosa & Bohm (2). We are so bad @ RISP when we need them. Ranger’s flrtation with a no-hitter worked against us in that it dictated the way we handled the relief situation. Truth of the matter is Ranger is a 6-7 inning pitcher. He simply doesn’t have the gas to go 9 innings. Ser A really having problems with too hitable pitches at the wrong time. This week should pretty much determine our plight. I worry if we have enough pitching. Hope our bats go wild.

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62. New discussion posted. Closing this one to further comments.

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