328 thoughts on “It Begins … Again (Phillies Discussion)”

1. Shout out to Bailey Falter. He pitched the final six innings last night for the Pirates, gave up one run, and got his first WIN. Still a fan.

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2. What do you guys think about Harper playing first base? Several games back, trying to pick off a guy at 1B he seemed to tweek his back. I know with a good back he could handle the position. But, bad backs don’t like sudden, quick movements. I think 1B you get more of that. Today, just running to first he aggravated something again, back? I think I’d prefer him in left field, but he’ll get to make the decision, I suppose. Whatcha think?

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   1. Skeet….he probably will need to work on specific stretching during the off-season if he plans on making first base his eventual career position change….and also ….I’d give him a back brace when he goes to 1B.
      He can remove it when he bats…..but he has pulled his back when batting in the past.

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      1. I read that Harper spent 2 weeks in the off season training with the “knee over toes guy”, hopefully he can find a back guy this off season. It does present interesting possibilities though. Harper in left, Rhys on a 1 year contract at first and Schwarber dh.

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         1. I saw some of his off-seaon routine a few years ago….weightlifting was a big part of it like most all the ballplayers.
            He may have altered it now as he got older..

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3. With 1B Rixon Wingrove assigned to Reading from Jersey Shore now, I wonder if they may look to send Carlos DLC to LHV.

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   1. Got a feeling we are going to see more movement this year then we have in the past on the minor league ladder.

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      1. I can’t say who specifically, but with the FCL season over, expect a handful of FCL guys to be bumped up to Clearwater.

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   2. Aidan Miller to Clearwater 👀

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   3. I think we’ll see more movement on the system ladder this year. De La Cruz has been pretty consistent all year.

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   4. Romus, I guess not. They just traded cash to acquire an OF from the Royals (Triple-A Omaha), Brewer Hicklen, and assigned him to Lehigh Valley. And, holy molly, while typing this, Harper tied the game. Woohoo!

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      1. I hope Carlos DLC is not buried in the system like Hall has been ovrr the last 2/3 years.

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         1. Hall was blocked by Hoskins and Hall has no position flexibility. DLC is now blocked by Marsh, Rojas, Pache. Where is DLC supposed to play on the big club?

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            1. No where to go on the big club,
               ….then trade them, and should have traded Hall two years ago.
               They have served their time in the org’s minor league system.
               What would the Braves do!
               …hording minor leaguers reduces their value on the open market.
               Seems every off-season the Phillies buy $20M plus free agents….so they will always run into those lineup structural situations….Braves promote from within or trade for assets.

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               1. You’re giving too much trade value for Hall and DLC. Hall is an older 1B prospect. Everybody has those. DLC has some value but not a lot. And if you’re the Phillies, you might as well hold onto DLC as OF depth instead of trading him.

                  Remember, the prospects are there for the Phillies benefit, not the other way around.

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4. It would be easy to blame Kimbrel for this one and rightfully so. He was terrible but I blame Realmuto. The guy is averaging one hit for every four at bats this season. He’s zero for four in this game with two K’s and he comes up with the winning run on third. He’s due, right? Instead he swings at a pitch a foot off the plate. This is one they came way back from and shouldn’t have let get away.

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   1. Wow its Realmuto fault that KIMBREL blew the game, I know i am not a college professor, but what the hell does it have to do with kimbrel giving up three runs,

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5. Have to agree, ciada. He complained about the first called ball and he was right. But he can’t swing at that slider that wasn’t close to the plate. And Bohm almost won it in the 9th by a foot! Yes, Kimbrel was terrible

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   1. I think JT might be hurting, trainer was looking at his knee.

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   2. Got a feeling JT is dinged up. Saw the trainer looking at his knee.

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6. Like clockwork. Give a shoutout to players and they implode. Clearly the play was to bring Covey out since we were saying that he’s not good…

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7. If Realmuto is hurt, put him on the IL to heal. Bring up Marchan. He’s batting close to .300. Great 7 innings and a W for Abel.

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8. So the team has played about 120 games. Which player has most exceeded expectations? I have narrowed down to three pleasant surprises.

   They are:

   Stott. Did not expect this high of a batting average.

   Kimberly- despite tonight.

   Sanchez- he has done a nice job in the 5th spot in the rotation.

   Have to give it to Sanchez. Really surprised by his success this year.

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   1. I would also pick Sanchez, but Stott was close. Stott went from 1.2 to 4.2 WAR, I don’t think anybody saw that coming. Sanchez was walking 5.3 at Lehigh, now he’s walking 1.7, which would be the lowest of his career at any stop. That is unheard of.

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      1. Bohm’s continued improvement at bat and in the field qualify as a pleasant surprise.

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         1. Bohm’s calling card was always his hitting but as much as he improved, he still has a long way to go. He’s doesn’t hit enough to be 1B/3B (1.4 oWar) and his defense is still not good (and that’s being generous). He’s entering arbitration next season so the clock is ticking for him to rapidly improve.

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            1. Agreed. He’s a good (not great) offensive player but is well below-average fielder and runner. Those things drain his value just as Rojas’s great fielding and running enhance his value.

               That said, I will allow that metrics don’t always tell the full story on a player. Zack Wheeler in the #1 pitcher on Fangraphs. I really like Wheeler but I don’t believe for a second that, this year, he’s the best pitcher in baseball. Maybe he’s top 10, but the best in the game? No way. So I think Bohm really is better than the metrics say, but his hitting is still not good enough to justify him playing first and he’s not a great option at third. In any event, they are probably going to start considering extending some younger players. With Bohm, it’s going to be year to year and, if Aidan Miller looks like he’s going to be a stud, you probably either trade Bohm or let him age out and replace him with Miller, perhaps with a gap filler player in between.

               As for Stott, he just keeps getting better. He’s already a first division regular and he’s now on the cusp of being an all-star caliber player. He is, right now, where I thought he would be about 2 years from now. The most amazing thing about Stott is how consistently he has improved from his freshman year in college to the present. Go back and look at the statistics. It’s really impressive. Until very recently, I thought Stott could not be a star because he would not hit for enough power or walk enough. He is starting to change my mind on those fronts. I have no idea how good he can become.

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      2. Sanchez and Stott are really good candidates. I would add Marsh to that list. His emergence as a regular for a championship lineup is extremely promising. He made some changes thanks to KL after the trade from the Angels. But this year it really took off. He looks like a different player. He has been really good.

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9. I think everybody knew that the Angels made a huge mistake not trading Ohtani, but now it’s even worse with the news that Ohtani tore his UCL and won’t be pitching again for the rest of this season. He’s staring down another TJ surgery (he had it in 2018) just when he’s about to get the biggest FA contract in MLB history.

   Not only that, Mike Trout is headed back to the IL.

   I feel sorry for Angels fans. Ohtani is hurt, Mike Trout has only played over 100 games once in the last 4 years (besides the fact he’s still owed 7/260), Anthony Rendon has been a disaster the second he signed his FA contract (and he’s still owed 3/115). The only thing going good for them is Mickey Moniak! And maybe Logan O’Hoppe coming off the IL. That’s brutal.

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   1. Angels….DFA the owner .

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      1. LOL good one Romus. I think I just posted the other day it would be stupid for an owner to pay Ohtani as if he were 2 players….

         Yesterday was house money as far as I was concerned. They won the series and that is all it takes to make me happy.

         That said the Giants tried so many times to hand us the game and we didn’t take it. That won’t fly in the playoffs.

         There is some kind of over the top love for Thompson here (by some) but I put that game on him. Once he inserts Rojas to run for Castellanos with 0 outs he has to put a play on that allows Rojas to steal 2nd.

         Stott is AB he is your best hitter at seeing pitches and hitting with 2 strikes. If I’m not mistaken he swings at the 1st pitch.

         By the time Rojas does take 2nd there are 2 outs. Ok fine JT hits a single there and he scores easy .

         Thompson I believe was trying to stay away from using Kimbrel there. I think Kimbrel’s arm may be a little fatigued. He has carried a heavy load this season.

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         1. I really don’t understand this constant desire to cherry pick bad outcomes in a baseball game and bash the manager. Swapping Rojas (our fastest player) for Castellanos (one of our slowest players) in the 9th inning representing the winning run is a no brainer.

            Stott hit the 3rd pitch of the AB as a line drive that the LF makes a diving play for. Bohm hit the first pitch of his AB to the fence. If that ball isn’t caught, then Rojas scores from first. Or at a minimum is on 3rd with 1 out. Rojas then steals 2nd while JT is at bat and gets to 3rd on a wild pitch. I don’t see how you can bash the manager for any of that.

            This team plays loose and full speed every inning of every game. That is the #1 role that an MLB manager can have. Keep the team culture positive and max effort. These game scenarios that don’t work out as planned is a part of baseball. Happens to every manager all the time.

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            1. v1, I am not arguing your point. Just adding that the “Rojas should have stolen 2B in the first couple of pitches of Stott’s AB” narrative was raised by the TV announcing team during the game. Not saying they were correct, and you are not, but it was brought up by them. We were about a foot on each of Stott’s and Bohm’s hits from winning the game. That’s part of the game. Kimbrel’s meltdown was also not Topper’s fault. And, if we had just scored one run, capitalizing on all those BBs before the 9th inning, then Harper’s hit would have been a game winning HR.

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               1. It’s not that easy. The guy behind the plate is literally leading MLB with most DRS from the catcher position. Bailey has 15 DRS in only 590 innings. He has a 33% CS rate. This isn’t little league where a fast player gets on and goes the first pitch. Bailey is elite. Rojas also got picked off on Monday, so he didn’t want that to happen again. He had to see some pitches to learn the pitcher’s move.

                  I believe that if Bohm worked a deep count, then Rojas would have stolen with Bohm up. But there is nothing wrong with the managerial decision there.

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               2. Bailey might be elite but he sure is a beggar. He pulls every pitch outside the strike zone into the box, I’m surprised that Ump doesn’t penalize him for this action. Ultimate framing. Bothers the heck out of me.

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               3. https://x.com/codifybaseball/status/1691230516627091456?s=46&t=-U_MfMB4sZDD0dW6wRaryg

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            2. V1 you seem to have an overwhelming case of the warm and fuzzies. Which is actually a cool thing just not indictive of your history.

               I think arguing against the possibility of an alternate outcome if Rojas steals second early in Stotts AB is a bit vain.

               Last season was magical because of low expectation I get that but was that the peak?

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               1. I think it is unrealistic to think that Rojas can come off the bench and steal a base in a 3 pitch at bat. He is fast but not Ricky Henderson. Just an unrealistic expectation. But even so, how does that make it a bad managerial decision? Rojas had the green light to go when ready. RT can’t force him to steal. He gives the green light and it’s up to the player.

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         2. One of the oldest “rules” in baseball is that you don’t make the first or last out on the bases.

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         3. If Josh Harris ever decides to buy a baseball team, he’s totally going to buy the Angels!!!

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      2. That is so funny and so appropriate. Great call!

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         1. Denny…..how many ‘meddling’ owners have teams that win championships!
            Or even get to play for a championship in the final play-off round or game.
            When people know the name of the ownerr vs the name of the GM…then that is typically a meddler owner.

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            1. Very true. Remember Omar Minaya; messed up the Mets?

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               1. Omar Minaya ruined the Expos first. He traded Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Lee Stevens for Bartolo Colon.

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   2. Painful to watch.

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   3. Pitchers figured out Moniak

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      1. This one’s for you,
         …I know how much the Philies international management scene draws your ire:
         “Julio Rodríguez signed with the Mariners at 16- years of age as an international free agent in July 2017 for a bonus of $1.75M. Phillies signed Luis Garcia for $2.5M”

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         1. I just regurgitated dinner.

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10. Rocco – I never accused you of being a college professor even though your writing skills have greatly improved. If you go back and read my post, I wrote that, yes, you could easily, rightfully blame Kimbrel for the loss but had Realmuto delivered when he should have and that he should have, the game would have been over and Kimbrel doesn’t have an appalling 10th inning.

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11. Rojas reminds me of Devon White. Man can that kid play defense. So effortless. MLB pipeline put a 65 on his defense. If he’s a 65 then what does an 80 look like? Rojas already has 10 DRS in only 220 innings. He has the be in the field every game imo. He has a legit shot to lead all MLB in DRS if he played a full season. How can you take him out of the lineup?

    In my opinion, I would tell Harper that he is a first baseman going forward. Schwarber is a DH and I would start Rojas and Marsh. He’s too good to be on the bench.

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    1. This team is clearly better when Kyle is the DH Marsh is in LF and Rojas and or Pache is in CF. BH must not be able to play 1B everyday yet.

       I’m hoping that once the playoffs start that is what’s going to happen.

       If Alvarado, Dominguez and Kimbrel aren’t right by the time we get to the playoffs its going to be tough sledding.

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       1. Agreed DMAR. I have convinced myself that the only reason that Harper isn’t the 1B daily is to rest him for the playoffs. I don’t really understand that as 1B is the least physically taxing position on the field. But I hope that is the case. Because Schwarber is the worst defensive player (among regular players) that I recall seeing. He is so awful.

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          1. For a guy with a bad back, I don’t feel that 1B is the least taxing position on the field. Consider all the quick movements, stretches and awkward moves that need to be made vs the time you are afforded to make the plays in the outfield.

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             1. Before the back issue seemed apparent he was still only playing every other night. Was that to protect the elbow?

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                1. I think that’s right. He will never say it directly, but, in my opinion, Harper was not near 100 percent with the elbow when he came off the IL, although he was clearly health enough to hit without jeopardizing his full recovery. He has said that some days are better than others with the elbow discomfort. They are giving him days off and making sure to give him rest to protect the elbow and it sounds like it’s slowly getting there. But in terms of his improving physically (with the elbow), I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he’s just now starting to look like the Bryce Harper of old at bat. I was beginning to wonder if that player was never going to appear again (the power was seriously down for a while) – but he’s back.

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             2. fair point.

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          2. Harper made a comment last week that got lost in the shuffle, that there are days when his arm is a problem, which is why he’s not full-time 1B

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    2. The crazy thing is that Pache’s defense is comparable to Rojas’s. But, agreed, if Rojas is 65, what does 80 look like? The highest rated defensive outfielder in my lifetime was Andruew Jones at his peak. Is Rojas three notches down from him? I don’t think so.

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       1. Andruw Jones was big time. He can really pick it.

          I think Rojas is a bit better than JBJ, and that’s saying something because JBJ was really good defensively.

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    3. Physically Harper can’t play 1b every game, you also can’t take his bat out of the lineup. How Marsh was judged to be a highly rated OF/CF is mind-boggling. Way too many balls drop in when he’s out there. Rojas just gets there and makes the catch every time.

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    4. Pardon my ignorance. What is a DRS?

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       1. Defensive Runs Saved.

          There is a service that watches every defensive out made by a fielder every night. Based on batted ball data and steps required they have a formula to calculate the probability of a fielder making an out. If they make that out, then they get 1-the probability. If they don’t, they get 0-probability.

          So an easy play with a 100% probability is zero points if the out is recorded. A low probability play can be a 0.95 runs.

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12. Austin Slater’s “double” is a great example of how Schwarber’s defense kills you…. Rojas, Marsh, Pache all catch that easily.. Cave likely does too.

    This team has an interesting makeup, and a lot of pieces don’t fit …. But the playoff bench needs to be Stubbs, Pache, Sosa, and I’m open to Cave or Hoskins if he’s ready.

    That puts Harper at 1B, Bohm at 3rd, Marsh in LF, Rojas in CF, and schwarber in the DH role.
    Pache can be subbed for Castellanos with the lead in late innings, same for Sosa over bohm.

    Schwarbers bats helps win games, but his defense helps lose it too.

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    1. If Schwarber is playing in the OF he is a negative WAR player. He would have to hit a homer for him to be a net positive for that game. Anything else and he is a net negative. Truly awful defensive player. Watching him on TV doesn’t do justice to how bad he is. When you go to CBP and watch him live it is insane how slow his reads are and how poor his routes. He is a DH. I pray that Harper can play 1B in the playoffs and Schwarber goes to DH. That has to be the plan.

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       1. 233 career home runs, 142 solo shots……….really think he should change his name to Hans Solo!

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          1. He has 2 grand slams this year and his teams only missed the playoffs 1 year, I can live with Schwarber. Amaro thinks he will get better hitting with age which is interesting.

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13. Last night for the Pigs, “Connor Brogdon opened and pitched two perfect innings, three strikeouts.” This was against SWB, maybe something is clicking now.

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    1. Denny…maybe Brogdon is a Sep call-up, and also to open some games down the stretch. Phillies and Thomson normally do not do an opener but yuo never know when push comes to shove in theose last few weeks of the season.

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       1. Romus I wasn’t born yet. You saw Grammer Hammer play. Was he good? I am reading about him

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    2. It was a doubleheader, they didn’t have a 2nd SP. Brogdon has not been doing a great job down there prior to yesterday. Hopefully he’s healthy and he’s figured some stuff out. As for the extra arm, I assume Marte will be back and they’ll decide between keeping Bellatti or bringing up Ortiz or Brogdon.

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14. Marchand, during June & July, past 26 games, is hitting.357.

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    1. Next year, I think they pretty much have to bite the bullet and make Marchan the back-up. I love Stubbs, but Marchan projects as the better player.

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       1. Garrett Stubbs might be the most popular dude in the Phillies clubhouse, but Rafael Marchan is out of options after this season. Marchan >> Stubbs. Marchan will be the club’s backup catcher in 2024. He’ll be the team’s starting back stop in 2026.

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          1. Hinkie….I belive you are correct.
             Marchan as the back-up next season.
             Though not sure about 2026….JTR may get the QO …if he is still close to the top of his game…and what if he accepts it!.

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             1. Romus … Anything is possible. But I’d be surprised if the team was looking to pay a 35 YO JT Realmuto 20M+. The regression is already in progress both offensively & defensively (Marchan has already passed Realmuto defensively). Dombrowski made the 5/115.5M offer knowing the final year(s) would most likely amount to negative value. Not sure he’d want to tack on one more season at even greater negative value.

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          2. I wouldn’t rule out Stubbs staying as a super utility guy with Marchan as the backup catcher

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             1. Okay, let’s all be real.

                If Garrett Stubbs is not the back-up catcher (and, after this year, he should be replaced with Marchan), he has no role on this team. He is a super energy guy but does not have the fielding, and especially hitting, skills to justify a role other than the back-up catcher. Marchan is probably better than him right now, but they like his experience and don’t want to mess with the chemistry of the team at this point (which makes sense).

                Marchan may or may not be the starting catcher in 2026, but I highly doubt the Phillies are going to give Realmuto a QO. This year Realmuto, thus far, has not been worth what they are paying him. Now, I think he could bounce back toward the end of this year and perhaps next year, but, as a group, catchers, even athletic ones, regress massively and rapidly after the age of 33 or 34. They will let his contract conclude and then make a decision from there, but, absent an All-Star type last season (which I don’t expect, nor should you), they won’t be throwing money at him (nor should they).

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                1. I saw what the Cardinals did with Yadie……if JTR stays healthy…AND if he can maintain being at least a 3WAR or higher player in 2025, then I’ d hope to see a QO coming his way….that is, ilo of a LTC.
                   Why not…if he signs elsewhere, for even a two year deal..the Philies get compensated at the draft table.

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                2. The Yadies of the world are few and far between and most catchers, even great ones, have their last year as even replacement level players by age 33 or 34. They should just wait this out. If, for some crazy reason, he finishes his last year as a 3 WAR player (highly unlikely, but possible), they would probably just want to sign him for another year or two at a much lower rate.

                   But if he’s like a 1-2 WAR player by then (which is likely), you don’t waste money giving him a QO because nobody will sign him and lose the draft pick. You let Marchan play (he will probably be at least a 2 WAR player) and use the money for other things.

                   On the whole, however, signing 35 year old catchers is a very bad practice. It’s like signing 29 year-old running backs. The odds are very much against you.

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                3. Tha would be my issue…..if JTR is a 3WAR player in his last year of this contract…..Phillies may want to offer him for two more years….I’d prefer the QO route.

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                4. It’s funny how people are ready to replace JT when people on this site were willing to give him a 6 year FA deal…

                   Anyways, JT has 2 more years left on his current deal (age 33 and 34). When he signed his 5 year deal, I was expecting 2 good years, 2 average years, and 1 bad one and he’s on track for that. There’s no way that the Phillies should re-sign JT after his current contract ends. Catchers don’t age well at all. He’s barely a 3 WAR player now.

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15. Pache vs Rojas …

    Pache was on a tear before his old injury flared up
    I think we forget how effortless his defense was too. Rojas is better defensively, but Pache is likely better offensively… so who is winning that battle to play everyday in the playoffs?

    If Pache can pickup where he left off at… man .. that is not an easy decision, but I gotta go Pache for the offense. Look to work in Rojas when the Phils are ahead. If the Phil’s are up 4, castellanos is out. Hard to determine where than line falls for only being up 3 runs? 2 runs? … 8thing in on my OF defense during the playoffs is Marsh, Rojas, Pache …. With our bullpen …

    This team is built for the playoffs

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    1. With callups I think you just platoon Pache and Marsh in LF and play Marsh in CF when Schwarber has to play LF if against a RHP. Rojas would be my everyday CF. Whoever isn’t starting would come in for Castellanos late.

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       1. Marsh has developed into a first division regular. Once in a while they will sit him against tough lefties, but that’s the exception. And there’s more power upside with Marsh.

          But, if Schwarber moves pretty much exclusively to DH (this should happen), there should be plenty of ABs for Rojas regardless of whether Pache is the main starter in centerfield.

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    2. The playoff roster, if they get there, probably won’t include Pache AND Rojas. One or the other. Can’t count on Harper playing 1b every game. That has a domino effect.

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       1. In the pre-DH era, it d agree, but now? Makes sense to load your bench up on defense. Who’s going to get pinch hit for now? You can do L vs R matches … but the lineup is pretty packed. I’d trust their formula. The way the team is built, bash for 8, ride the big arms, then it’s shutdown time with bullpen matches abd a vacuum defense

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16. Connor would be perfect. Fits the team. He is so inconsistent.

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17. It’s always hard to tell the impact of names you rarely hear but I saw a recent article that Preston Mattingly is being considered for the White Sox position.

    Hired in Sept21 if his impact is being felt on our scouting and development it would be wise to promote him before he gets away.

    I believe what is especially valuable within the MLB FOs these days are personnel that can actually scout with their eyes as well as their analytical interpretations.

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18. Guru – That indeed was a great (double) play by Rojas. It is easy to compare him to Jackie Bradley Jr but I think JBJ had perhaps one of the best throwing arms in major league history.

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    1. Highest DRS season for JBJ:
       16 in 1,012 innings. He had only 3 other seasons of double digits in DRS.

       Rojas has 10 DRS in only 222 innings as a rookie.

       I think that you are underestimating how elite Rojas is defensively.

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       1. Agreed, he is as good as I’ve seen. Reads the ball well and closes extremely well. Very Maddox like but with even more speed.

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          1. I think Devon White is a good comp for him.

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             1. True, also Andrew Jones…. High praise because we’re talking gold glove ability

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                1. Andrew Jones has the highest defensive bWAR (24!) of any outfielder in major league history. He hit 434 homers and compiled 62 total WAR. One day, people will wake up and realize he needs to be in the HOF.

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                2. Jones career DRS is 66…with just over 17K innings played in the OF.

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       2. Actually when you factor in his DRS in the minors…he may lead all the majors now.

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19. V1 – Not disputing how elite Rojas is defensively. Only saying that Bradley had a really powerful throwing arm to go along with the jump he got and the routes he took. Get to see all of the Red Sox games up here in Storrs, CT so I had the pleasure of watching him play in his prime.

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    1. Agreed. JBJ was a great defender. Rojas is better imo.

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20. Stephen Strasburg (with 3/105 left on his contract) is doing the Nationals a favor by retiring. I’m assuming that Strasburg negotiated a buyout of the remaining $105M. After age 30, injuries wiped out his career.

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    1. How quick it can all go for pitchers..and now Ohtani …..had his first TJ 5 years ago…and second one soon I would think….his pitching days are virtually kaputski now.

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       1. Talk about tough luck. That injury could not have happened at a worse time for Ohtani. That said, I fully expect him to pitch again. Two TJs are obviously not a great thing, but Nathan Eovaldi is living proof that it’s also not a mountain too high to climb. The Dodgers are also expecting rebounds from Walker Buehler and Dustin May. Each of those guys are rehabbing from TJ 2.0’s.
          I’ll be very interested to follow the Ohtani sweepstakes this winter. I still think it’s a 3 team race. I’d rank it this way:

          1️⃣ Dodgers
          2️⃣ Angels
          3️⃣ Mariners

          Before the injury, I expected a 10/500M-ish contract. I think that’s still possible. It may now be more convoluted … i.e., lots of team/player options. Just my opinion.

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          1. There have been numerous pitchers that went thru two TJs….only a handful ever came anywhere close to peak performance…..the caveat, most 2nd timers however were over 30 years old so they were already on the downside of their careers.
             I seriously doubt Ohtani ever goes back onto the mound, if in fact he has a second TJ….why take the risk….his UCL wil be repaired but never up to the orignal arm strength he once had.

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             1. Because he’s worth a lot more as a pitcher and hitter than as a hitter alone. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t try to return to pitching again.

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          2. I think, with the second TJ, you have to assume (for valuation purposes), that he will only be pitching for like 5 or 6 more years – not the life of a long-term contract and you have to factor in that he may never be the same pitcher). I’m think now that the contract is probably going to look more like 45m per year and maybe 8/9 years rather than 10-12. But who knows? Someone will likely get really far over their skis and give him a ridiculous contract.

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21. Strasberg retiring at the moment we learn Ohtani needs TJ again, very eerie considering the financial ramifications for whoever signs him.

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22. On an entirely different subject, I’m interested to see how the expanded playoff field has created so much interest. Every day there is discussion about how teams compare in their chances to win a wild card spot or to get the first wild card. This week, it was noted that the Giants winning the final game of the series gave them the season series and the tie-breaker with the Phillies for the wild card.

    I was opposed to expanding the playoffs being an old traditionalist who thinks that only the division champion should get to the post-season, but I’ve changed my mind now. Kinda like the DH. Hated the idea but it sure is more fun not having a pitcher coming to the plate every two innings or so.

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    1. I’m ok with the expanded playoff and DH. It’s creating a lot of interest.

       My buddy, the Blue Jays fan, is more of a traditionalist. He thinks that WS winners should be true powerhouse teams and not WC teams limping their way in.

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23. William Bergolla has a 6% K rate and a 15% walk rate as an 18 year old in full season ball. 12 Ks and 28 walks in 190 PAs. That is unbelievably impressive. One of the more impressive peripheral stat lines that I recall seeing from an 18yo Phillies prospect ever.

    For years I have been saying here that imo K rate and BB rate are the best predictors of a prospect’s success as he moves up.

    Bergolla is obviously not strong enough. But that will come. His contact abilities are phenomenal. Fangraphs has a 60 hit, 60 speed and 60 defense projection on him. A player with that profile is a star. Very exciting prospect.

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    1. Hitting a very solid 280 at CWater also, very encouraging.
       Tait is also getting me excited. He’s only 16 and had 3 doubles yesterday in their playoff win in game 1 of their 3 game quarterfinals. I’m sure they’ll bring him to the states next season, maybe even for the fall instructs.

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       1. This is the best groups of LatAm signings in our system in a long time. Caba looks like a special prospect too. And Enrique Segura is pretty interesting

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          1. Even Ronald Acuna’s cousin …Aroon Escobar….is loaded with raw talent and potential. Though, it has not yet translated on the stat sheets.

             https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=escoba000aro

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          2. Agree on Bergolla. Outstanding hit skills and plate discipline and fielding skills. This alone will likely make him a second division regular if he progresses in a normal fashion. But, like so many Phillies infield and outfield prospects, the issue will be whether he can gain enough strength to routinely drive the ball. I am not saying the strength won’t come, but I wouldn’t assume that. We’ve had several prospects stall out over the years while we waited the strength that never came. But, so far, he’s doing great and I’m hopeful!

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             1. He’s 5’11” and not 5’8” like so many IF so there’s at least hope he’ll get bigger and stronger.

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                1. It has much more to do with build than it does with height. Remember Carlos Tocci? He was 6’2″, but he was built like a junior high school middle distance runner and absolutely, positively, did not have the “man strength” to fight off big league pitches (and you could see this when he was in the minors – it was a joke – he never had a chance). Tyler Goeddel is another example – skinny weak guy who never had a real chance to hit major league pitching.

                   I am not damning Bergolla – I am just saying don’t assume he will gain enough strength to be a strong major league hitter. Maybe he will, maybe he won’t.

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                2. I’m with catch here. For me, Bergolla, Caba, and Emaarion Boyd all fall into the same category: like them, but need to see them impact the ball more. I’m sure they’ll each fill out to some degree. What will their K & BB rates look like if/when they do start swinging for more impact. I’ve got them all in 11-20 range on my list.
                   Right now, I’m higher on Devin Saltiban. The recently drafted SS/CFer isn’t a big kid either (5’10″/175). He’s actually younger than Bergolla, and already shows more pop. I’ve moved Saltiban and Eduardo Tait in my top 10. I have Enrique Segura not far behind Saltiban and Tait.
                   I also have Nikau Pouaka-Grego in front of Bergolla.

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             2. Adding mass/strength is the easiest thing to do. It’s a math equation. Eat 5,000 calories per day and hit the gym. Imo any prospect who doesn’t add mass/strength simply doesn’t have a good work ethic. I really think it is that black and white.

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                1. Generally, a player will get stronger just by virtue of maturing and by strength training, but there are obvious limit on to extent to which the player will get stronger. Some can put on more good weight and add more strength than others – it’s not just about calorie consumption and getting into the gym.

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                2. I disagree. Certainly every human has limits but players rarely reach their limit. If a player doesn’t get stronger or add mass it is a lack of work ethic and motivation imo. And every physical trainer that I have spoken with says the same thing. It is a formula. Within limits.

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                3. I’m sure he can add some strength and bulk and I suspect he will do that. But will it be enough to make a material difference? Who knows? But if working out a lot and eating better was enough to give lots of guys big power, many, many more players would be hitting a lot more homers.

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                4. And yet we hear all the time about players who have career years and credit it to a change in eating and strength training.

                   It takes a lot to build strength. Most people work out to maintain. They don’t go the extra mile because it is a massive sacrifice.

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24. I get confused about which thread is which. Is this thread the major league one or the minor league one or does it matter?

    So if it is the major league thread. the Phillies need to not underestimate this weekend’s series with the Cardinals. Sanchez needs to be really careful with Goldschmidt and Arenado.

    If this is the minor league thread, kudos to Marchan. I think Hinkie always talks him up. He should be, IMO, next season’s backup. The guys on the team love Stubbs so if they get their way, Marchan is a goner.

    I’d like to see Marchan playing 35% of the games next season. Realmuto will have two years to go and he’s wearing out. Love what he’s done over the years but father time is catching up to him.

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    1. cida, the guys loved Andrew Knapp but he was a goner for Stubbs. I would also like to see Marchan next year. Stubbs is just a very weak hitter. Seems 1/3 of his hits are bunts. Marchan is out of options so I think he will be #2 next year.

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       1. I have no doubt Stubbs is a great guy and is helpful for team chemistry – and that’s why he has a job through the end of the year. But in the long run, the team needs to ensure the best and most cost-effective players play. By next year, that really should be Marchan, but, no, he’s not playing 35% of the games. You don’t pay a catcher $23 million a year to sit roughly 2 games out of 5 – it’s not happening.

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          1. JTR has caught anywhere from78% to 89% of the games played per year while in Philly….when healthy.
             If he drops to 75%…that will come out to 122 games played….maybe not all caught.
             Marchan probably will get about 32/33 games or 20%

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       2. Well, if you are writing Stubbs off, I hope he has time to teach Rojas how to bunt while he’s still here.😏

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       3. Those 2 RBIs are dedicated to you NL.😅😂😂

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25. Well, Guru said Stras was doing the Nats a favor by retiring. But turns out, not so much. He’s still getting paid. And the Nats didn’t insure the contract, so no relief for them.

    Oof.

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    1. Dan…the question is…will there still be a $35M a year cap hit for three more years…..ot just the team forking over the money without the cap hit?
       If he retired as a result of an injury wouldn’t the cap hit go away?
       Splain.

       https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/stephen-strasburg-6865/

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       1. I can’t find anything one way or the other, but I think they might still take the cap hit.

          Reason being that players who are medically forced to retire are considered “inactive” until the conclusion of their contract rather than actually retired. Voluntary retirement nulls the contract, which means the cap hit (and payments due by the terms of the contract) go away. But as was the case with others such as Prince Fielder, medically retired/inactive players are still bound by their contract technically. In fact, Fielder was one of the few players who earned their ENTIRE SALARY in 2020 (how weird is that tidbit?).

          Anyways, since the team is still required to pay, I think it’s likely they still take the cap hit. Much like if you released a player or sent them down to the minors.

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          1. Dan……teams do have settlement agreements with the players…the players get their money, but teams look to extend it thru future years….bottom-line, the Nats will still have a $105M cap hit/luxury tax hit….but instead of over the next three years, it could be over the next 10 years with less of hit per year.
             That is how I read it.

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             1. That happens, but I haven’t read that’s the case. And that wasn’t the case for Fielder. I can’t think of any cases off the top of my head where the player was medically forced to retire and then made such a deal.

                Every scenario I can think of the player basically wanted to retire anyway, so the team offered a settlement so they didn’t just have to run out the contract (so a win-win for player and team).

                But all of this is just speculation by myself and some reporters. Dunno if we’ll ever get the full details.

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    2. Wow, did not realize that if you retire due to injury, your contract still gets paid. Now it makes a lot more sense why Strasburg retired.

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       1. Stephen Strasburg’s 7/245 contract is now, I believe, the worst contract ever. For that contract, Strasburg gave the Nationals -0.5 WAR (not a typo). So essentially the $245M was a parting gift from the Nationals to Strasburg for helping the team get a ring.

          This blows away the Phillies worst contract ever, the 5/125 to Ryan Howard who then gave the team -4.8 WAR.

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          1. The biggest example of this prior to Stras was Prince Fielder.

             The Rangers (and Detroit, who was still sending money as part of the trade) only finished paying him after 2020.

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             1. Fielder signed for 9/214 and he proceeded to give 7 WAR total! Absolutely brutal.

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          2. It’s the worst contract ever and it’s not really close. Washington was delusional in giving him that deal. He was good in the postseason but his velocity kept dropping and was borderline even with him healthy. Add to that the horrible Corbin contract and it buried the Nationals – not that I mind 🙂

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             1. Though have to admit…Rizzo and Mets’ Cohen seem to reverse course pretty fast….Nats are on the rise again…..soon Crews comes in with Woods .
                And the trades Rizzo made over the last two years to bring prospects
                Mets have some good young prospects coming along also….acuna’s brother for one.
                Phillies tried the same starting in 2015 thru 2018…Phillies howver lacked a quality POBO and GM to bring it to a succesful resolution
                The thing the Nats and Mets are missing at the moment, are overall depth at quality starting pitching.

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       2. What normally happens in these situations is the club and the player negotiate a settlement. That can alter when payments are made. But it is extremely unlikely that Strasburg is giving back any significant portion of the money. ….. the MLB players’ union doesn’t want there to be all these examples of guys whose careers end because of injury and they decide to return portions of remaining contract money that’s owed to them. Also, my understanding is that any money in a settlement still counts against the competitive balance tax (CBT) threshold — . In terms of roster construction, that’s what’s important. Even if the Nationals are paying Strasburg on a different schedule than they were supposed to it’s not like the money just goes, “Poof!” and the Nats are absolved of the responsibility.

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26. Strasberg made close to half a million per pitch after signing that deal.

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27. I don’t want to saying anything too positive because I’ll just jinx them, but one thing I do want to say is it’s nice that the Phillies didn’t play down to their opposition tonight. We’re the better team this year and we played like it.

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28. Aidan Miller played for Clearwater last night.

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29. In a strange way I wonder if the Strasberg retirement and the Ohtani injury increase Nola’s free agent value.

    Nola obviously not the same skill set but his history of taking the ball every 5th day/ clean arm health might have some teams thinking he is good risk.

    Candidly, I wonder if pitchers become like NFL running backs. Baseball teams will put more and more money into bats and less into arms.

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    1. Nah, starting pitchers are the Quarterbacks of baseball. They have the single largest impact on the game of any player. So teams will put as much money as they can into trying to find their ace.

       If anything, 1B are running backs. There’s a huge difference between the truly elite ones and the rest of the pack, and their impact is apparent. But they’re ubiquitous and easily replaced.

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       1. Though he does mention pitchers, and in general…except for the very small segment of elite relievers…..the majority are nomadic mercenaries in nature.

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          1. Which is also true of QBs. Especially QB2s. But they’re (pitchers and QBs) so ridiculously important to being a good team that teams will always pay them a lot of money. Even if the risk/reward is more skewed than for the “lesser” positions.

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30. Dr. Romus……………you can only have 2 TJs, right? Are there any stats that show how badly players fast balls digess after the 2nd procedure. How many guys have gone thru 2 procedures and still had ML stuff. Ohtani looks pretty athletic would teams consider him for the OF or 1B. His bat is a no brainer for DH. Give them Hans Solo straight up for him!😎🤫

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    1. You can have more than 2, but TJ is less effective each time it’s performed. If I recall correctly, the biggest issue is the scar tissue. Scar tissue is weaker than normal, so each procedure means you’re gradually more and more likely to have the injury again.

       So I guess after the second one, you’re really starting to tempt fate on it just being a permanent injury.

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    2. Skeet….some have come back with good results:
       Nathan Eovaldi……Jameson Taillon…..Daniel Hudson………Joakim Soria and some not so much …Josh Johnson, Krios Medlen, Brandon Beachy, Brian Wilson.
       Bottom line…..plenty of pitchers have returned from TJ to have successful careers, ……….but coming back from two elbow reconstruction operations? … success is fewer and far between.
       Now there are ….. Jacob deGrom, Shane McClanahan, Walker Buehler, Dustin May, Chris Paddack and Hyun Jin Ryu…and possibly Ohtani .let’s see how it plays out for them.
       If I were Ohtani I’d have the TJ now, and be back three months earlier hitting as a DH, than Bryce Harper was in this past May *remember Bryce had his after the WS in Nov)…Ohtani could be hitting in spring training.
       There is something else I saw…..an internal brace.
       Must be the newest technique for UCL tears.
       https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9718695/
       ….”Clinically, the authors have experienced good outcomes utilizing the described technique for UCL repair with Collagen-Dipped FiberTape augmentation in Overhead-Throwing Athletes.”

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       1. Romus and Dan…….thanks for the response, most appreciated.

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31. McGarry taking another one on the chin!🤪

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    1. 41.54 ERA in AAA

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       1. A couple ways to look at this –

          He could be pressing, because if we understand what his supposed eta to the big club was, I doubt he’s oblivious to it himself.

          It could also be, “Hey we are facing a top tier pitcher” in the minors – bring your A game…

          He’s gotta perform but I could see him pressing, as there were rumors he’d be in the pen last year. If likely would’ve if he had his control down. Lastly I might speculate – to be clear, I’m speculating – the emergence of Kiering (sp) might have him looking over his shoulder

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          1. Actually, it’s is AAA game that was needed. (Sorry, Tac, for the pun, but it was too easy to resist.)

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    2. That was really stupid that they let him pitch again so soon after those melt downs. Perhaps he was great in his side sessions and convinced them to let him go but this dude needs a mental rebuild and fast – they should shut him down now. This is ominous. A lot of guys don’t recover from something like this – in fact, my experience is that most don’t.

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    3. Interestingly though, he doesn’t give up many hits. IF he ever finds the strike zone consistently, you’re looking at a great prospect. No way to know if he’ll ever get there though as this has been his problem since college.

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       1. Of course he doesn’t – the stuff is crazy good. This is all about throwing strikes and his blowing up mentally his last 3 starts. He needs a sports psychologist and someone to help rebuild his confidence. He’s in danger of becoming Steve Blass/Rick Ankiel/Joe Cowley – they need to stop putting him out there and get him some professional help. I could not be more serious.

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32. Phillies sign Hector Perez to minor league deal. MLBTRs

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    1. Rolling the dice. Rest of the signings of comparable pitchers are high ERAs and quick exits in the 2nd & 3rd innings.

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33. So far, the 1st round of the 2019 draft is shaping up to produce a lot of quality players. Here’s the top 5 in WAR so far:

    Rutschman 8.4
    Manoah 7.8 (we all know his issues now)
    Carroll 5.7
    Stott 5.4
    Witt 5.0

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    1. The Phillies have had three really massively (positive) surprises this year (there have been others, but these really stand out): Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh and Christopher Sanchez.

       As for Sanchez, who knows whether this is a one-year wonder phenomenon or not. For now, does it really matter? They will ride this horse as long as they can, but it will take a while (as in most of next year) to figure out how real this has been.

       For Stott, his continued improvement in all aspects of his game is really amazing. He’s a plus fielder, a plus base runner, a plus to plus plus hitter and now he’s developing some power. If he continues to play the way he has, he’s a minor star, especially if the power is real. Stott is right now, where I thought he would be at the peak of his career.

       Marsh’s development may be more surprising than Stott’s. Seemingly out of nowhere, Marsh has greatly improved his plate discipline and hit tool. Basically, he’s now roughly the equivalent of Brandon Nimmo (he’s a $20 million a year player – so that’s quite a feat), but with the potential of more upside if he become a 20 homer a year hitter, which I think he probably will. I was critical of the O’Hoppe for Marsh trade, but they saw potential that was not apparent even last year. I was wrong. Very wrong. Marsh is a championship level player and is a devastating hitter at the bottom of a batting order.

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    2. The Phillies have had three really massively (positive) surprises this year (there have been others, but these really stand out): Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh and Christopher Sanchez.

       As for Sanchez, who knows whether this is a one-year wonder phenomenon or not. For now, does it really matter? They will ride this horse as long as they can, but it will take a while (as in most of next year) to figure out how real this has been.

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       1. The regression of Sir A, is one for me. He was so dominant last postseason, I still keep expecting that pitcher to show up. It was basically automatic last year

          I know it’s not a positive surprise but … I count it.

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          1. I’m not saying it doesn’t count – I just wasn’t listing my disappointments in my post. But he could bounce back at any time – the “stuff” is still good.

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       2. The good thing is that Sánchez is 26 and not even arbitration eligible until 2026. So he’s going to get a long look in the rotation at a cheap salary.

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    3. or Stott, his continued improvement in all aspects of his game is really amazing. He’s a plus fielder, a plus base runner, a plus to plus plus hitter and now he’s developing some power. If he continues to play the way he has, he’s a minor star, especially if the power is real. Stott is right now, where I thought he would be at the peak of his career.

       Marsh’s development may be more surprising than Stott’s. Seemingly out of nowhere, Marsh has greatly improved his plate discipline and hit tool. Basically, he’s now roughly the equivalent of Brandon Nimmo (he’s a $20 million a year player – so that’s quite a feat), but with the potential of more upside if he become a 20 homer a year hitter, which I think he probably will. I was critical of the O’Hoppe for Marsh trade, but they saw potential that was not apparent even last year. I was wrong. Very wrong. Marsh is a championship level player and is a devastating hitter at the bottom of a batting order.

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       1. Marsh, and I will also include Pache, have been highly regared by all the scouts and wannabe scouts for the past 3 or 4 years.
          Not just in the defensive side of the game but also at the plate.
          So it was just a matter of time.
          Dombrowski getting both of those one-yime highly regarded prospects, is a coup in itself.
          I do not think the previous regime would have the capability or wherewithal to pull it off.

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          1. I would have included him too – but the sample size is too small. When you watch things like this, yes, that’s what a master team builder does for you. And I think the Phillies told DD to build for the future and not just push all of his chips into the middle of the table, so we are seeing the best version of DD and there’s a lot to like, even though he doesn’t hit on everything or close to that (frankly, nobody does).

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             1. You’re right that he doesn’t hit on everything (and that nobody does). But the part that’s mind boggling is that when he hits, it’s on the ones that are REALLY important to hit.

                We had a virtual blackhole at CF for years. Not only does he pick up Marsh, he gets Pache. And now we’re wondering what we do to get our THREE center fielders some time. The issue wasn’t as pronounced, but we also had a question mark at back-up catcher. He not only grabbed Stubbs to bridge the gap to Marchan (as we assume is going to happen), he picked up Austin Wynns for nothing and then traded him for Plassmeyer. Plassmeyer’s not an impact player, but he’s valuable pitching depth that we got for free.

                And most importantly of all, he turned one of the worst bullpens EVER into an actual strength for this team. Alvarado, Kimbrel, Hoffman, Strahm, and Bellatti all were masterstrokes. It’s crazy to me that he hit so often (and so extremely) on the most volatile position in baseball.

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                1. “….what we do to get our THREE center fielders ..”
                   This off season one could go in a trade.
                   The best return value now IMO, would be first Marsh, Rojas and then Pache.
                   I saw what Minn and the Marlins did last off-season…Arraez for Lopez.
                   Dombrowski may try to do the same picking up another young controlled starter.

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                2. Don’t forget about Sosa either – he has been great depth !

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       2. Catch, one thing is sure. Dombowski can judge talent.

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34. When to the game last night –
    Cost me $463 for a family of 4 … I’m still recovering . Granted it could’ve been cheaper but … like I want to sit down and be able to see 🙂

    Lol 2 pizzas & 2 beer cans cost $75. Yeah.

    But … I got (family) a foul ball. first one ever after nearly 35+ years of attempting games

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    1. ‘2 beer cans’………….Yuengling or BudLite?

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       1. The summer shanty & spiked A Palmer. My kids were yelling … running off I just pointed .. proof $75 vanished. . I’m a Guinness, yuengling & Miller lite guy myself. Very rare for me to go off brand. I know a lot people love ipas … just taste like Lysol to me … can’t drink it .

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          1. Gotcha…..Miller Lite and Yuengling for me also,
             ….though a pint of Guinness, Fosters, local-brand Arkel, decades ago when I lived in England

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    2. I love crab fries but $15+ for an order is a lot.

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    3. Gotta wait on those dollar dog nights to do family trips to CBP these days, haha.

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       1. The thing with the expensive food, folks, is a lot of really isn’t very good. Lots of parks have better food with way more options instead of relentless cheesesteaks and pizza . CBP was, if memory services, better at this when it opened that it is now. It’s simply greed from Aramark and the Phillies.

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    4. Tac3. Like going to the Indiana State Fair. It is so costly to go to events these days. Glad you got a ball. My grandson got two at the Phillies vs Reds in Cincinnati earlier this year. One in batting practice and then at the end of the game one of the bullpen guys tossed a ball up to him as well. Made his day even though the Phillies lost like 13-0 that Saturday. I knew there was a reason I do not drink beer.

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       1. The ball makes the kids day for sure. My nephew was the recipient. Funny thing was the family sitting next to us,all got up at the same time, left for 5 mins, and in that time the ball was hit directly in their seats, so that’s the only reason we got it. Wide open so I let me kids wrestle around for it. Oldest got it and gave it to the youngest. Lol I figured it wouldn’t be a good look for me to push my kids out the way … though … it took a lot of restraint.

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          1. Like that!👍

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          2. Tac3. Very nice of you and fortunate the others left. You just never know. Congrats to the kids and a very nice gesture of the oldest. Nice job.

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35. Dominican White team won first series, on to the semis. Tait with 5 doubles in 3 games!

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36. Profar released. Any interest in him for a bench job?

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    1. Hard to believe but Profar is already 30. And if the Phillies needed a bench guy, you figure Segura would be here already.

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37. Not complaining but more wondering. Is there any where to compare teams % of HRs with no one on base. I am guessing the Phillies will be at the top.

    I understand Schwarber leading off will contribute to this but he really only has one at bat per game when he is truly leading off.

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    1. You can use Fangraphs’ Splits Leaderboard and filter results and then do the math yourself, if you want to.

       In this case, the Phillies have 90 solo HRs out of their 161 total for a percentage of just under 56%

       The Rays are 124 of 190 (65%), so we’re not leading by any means. I’m also not sure the Rays are leading, but they have only 1 fewer solo HR than the Braves, but almost 50 fewer total HRs than the Braves. So they were pretty obviously ahead of us.

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38. Frank said “Dombrowski can sure evaluate talent” and I agree….what did he see in Kimbrel to sign him ? I thought he was washed up. He really has put together a strong team that is fun to watch. Best move the Phillies made is signing Dombrowski.

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39. I have been a little frustrated by the inability of some of our more experienced hitters to work a count and not draw walks (Turner, Castellanos) and when I am tempted to blame Kevin Long, I stop and think about the young guys he is really coaching up and who are learning to become major league hitters under his supervision – guys like Marsh, Bohm, Stott, and Pache (and, now, Rojas) and I realize that those players are making huge progress under his guidance and those guys do work counts and have an excellent two-strike approach. On the pitching side, it appears that Cotham has done a very good job with the entire staff.

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    1. Sometimes its tough to teach an old dog new tricks…Castellanos I heard has three walks in the last two months with about 60 Ks.
       Hard to evaluate his season….was very clutch for the team early on in the season and does provide that long ball….but 28% K rate and 5% BB rate is below average……and a 1.3bWAR is rather surprising after close to 550 PAs.

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       1. Castellanos has never walked much in his career so it’s unlikely that’s going to change. His K/BB ratio is more extreme this season than it has been in the past but not by a lot.

          Turner’s BB% is on par with his career but his K% is much higher. I suspect much of that is from his early season struggles where he was swinging at everything.

          It’s very hard to make aggressive hitter become more patient so I assume K-Long isn’t trying to do so.

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          1. Yeah……I suppose unless they themselves approach Long for advice, he will just let them figure it out for themselves when they are struggling in a slump.

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40. FWIW – I watched a little of Orion Kerkering’s work yesterday on MILBTV. I expect him to make his MLB debut by no later than around May or June of next year. He throws gas (hitting 98 – faster than Andrew Baker, who pitched in the same game) and has very good secondary pitches and it makes me wonder if there’s any path forward for him as a starter, where he could potentially be much more valuable.

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    1. If it never clicks for McGarry a 5th rounder in 2021 then Kerkering a 5th rounder in 2022 may fit the bill.

       Strider was a 4th rounder in 2020 and way before that DeGrom was 9th round. You can find those studs for your rotation anywhere in the draft and they can save you a lot of payroll.

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       1. DMAR….at this point I have more confidence in Alex McFarlane progressing than McGarry. Both have extreme control issues in that respect, and both with outstanding stuff, but McFarlane is a bit younger and maybe they can work with him as he climbs up the org ladder.
          Who knows on McGarry…is it his mechanics, or physical like , is it the UCL or labrum starting to fray a bit …who knows but he will be in his age25 season in ’24 and he needs to figure it out.

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          1. I always forget about McFarlane but agree at just 22 its easier to bet on him figuring things out as opposed to a much older prospect.

             WHIP though is really high and its not just a high walk rate. His hits per 9 are a bit elevated as well.

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       2. For McGarry, this isn’t an issue of something “clicking.” This is a guy who had a 10k 0BB outing last month and has now melted down. I suspect this is entirely a psychological issue and they should stop just throwing him out there and making things worse. He needs a detailed recovery plan – much like the Red Sox did when Pivetta was traded there. They have to rebuild his confidence and approach.

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          1. I mentioned this last week … what Alec Bohm and Trea Turner went through was more a mental block/psychological hurdle/crisis in confidence. They were a couple of players who were suddenly dealing with something out of the ordinary. What Griff McGarry is going thru is nothing new. I’ve been a fan of his “stuff” since UVA. But finding the Kzone has always been his kryptonite. He has career BB-rates of 8.8/9 in college and 6.1/9 as a pro. For young Griff this is a mechanical thing; it’s not a mental hurdle.

             The next pitching prospect to be excited for is Wen Hui Pan. This kid has a pedigree, mucho velo, robust pitch arsenal, and has little problem throwing strikes. He’s behind only Painter, Abel, Rojas, Crawford, and Miller as a prospect for me.

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             1. I can see Pan moving fast after this season. I guess it really depends on what they can build his IP to next year. 60 IP so far and maybe only a few more appearances left for him.

                He’s only pitched 2.1 innings at Jersey Shore and those haven’t gone well so I imagine he starts the season there in 24 and if all goes well finishes in AA.

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                1. Phillies need to develop young starting pitchers, not sign over the hill inning eaters but stretch out some young starters. Drafting too many pitchers that were relievers or converting many to bulk relievers or 1-inning pitchers. If they can’t make it in the minors as a starter and are then a marginal reliever, cut bait.

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             2. Hinkie……I suspect Griff McGriff has had all the instructions/suggestions/advice he will get up to this point.
                Stops at CLW/JS/Reading and now LHV and two FILs under his belt….he has been exposed to probably a half-dozen pitching coaches over the last two plus years. Time is slowly running out .
                I see what they finally decided to do with Francisco Morales who also had some plus stuff, but with control issues.

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             3. Obviously, the mechanical thing doesn’t make it easier, but this is a class A meltdown – where a guy walks 7 batters at the beginning of a start and doesn’t get an out. That’s not just mechanical (although I’m sure he needs help with that too). No way. Not where he had a 7 inning no walk outing the month before.

                Agreed that Pan is way up there among our pitching prospects. I hope he is being groomed as a starter.

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    2. I honestly wonder if the Phillies may give him a September audition. They have been aggressive with other prospects and our bullpen has been showing some cracks as of late. Scouting reports indicate his stuff is big-league ready. He could be another weapon for us heading into the playoffs.

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       1. (Orion that is)

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          1. Not sure they want to start his clock up a year earlier, by adding him to the 40 and a service time start-time , for a just few weeks left in the season.

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             1. I guess the counter argument would be that pitchers (esp relief pitchers) can have fleeting success/durability. Team control may also be secondary to maximizing their odds during this championship window. Not sure where he is at with potential inning limits, however…

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41. An interesting, under the radar prospect, Tristan Garnett. He’s a 25yo relief pitcher that was undrafted. He went to a D2 college. He made his way to Reading. What jumps out is his impressive strikeout and walk numbers. Anyone have a scouting report on him? Interesting BP arm?

    https://www.milb.com/app-firstpitch/player/tristan-garnett-702911

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    1. Steve Potter writes him up here- https://www.philliesbaseballfan.com/post/8-9-23-stockpiling-the-pen-part-two-of-three

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       1. We are so lucky as Phillies fans to have Steve and Jim!
          ❤️

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       2. Good article. Thanks.

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       3. I was encouraged by Steve’s description of several minor league relievers who put in the work, and apparently accepted the coaching, needed to help them deal with adversity in the midst of their 2023 seasons. Sounds like Cotham has assembled instructors who are successfully tailoring individual programs to fit each pitcher’s needs.

          Has anyone heard of Phillies’ minor league pitchers who’ve recently been paired with a sports psychologist (or life coach) whose sports clients have made mental adjustments and demonstrated progress? That approach, coupled with solid, targeted instruction on mechanics, might go a long ways toward helping McGarry and McFarlane overcome some hurdles.

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42. MM looked very good, but TT looked better, huh?😊

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    1. Yes. I thought the same, Mickey looked good last night. Like a productive major leaguer. I wonder if his inability to hit LHP is fixable. Because he looked really good against RHP Walker last night.

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    2. Moniak is the poster child for needing a change of scenery. We can speculate that the pressure of being 1-1 was impacting his numbers, but the fact is, he wasn’t performing at the big league level. He needed to leave Philadelphia and John Kruk mentioned that in yesterday’s telecast. And you could argue that the Phillies did Moniak a favor by trading him. He looks relaxed in LA.

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       1. Agree Guru but OTOH that was an extremely weak draft class as it turned out. I mean go back and look at that class and see who (if you had it to do over) would you take 1:1

          Yeah you’re going to find a guy or two you’d take over Mickey but still that player while good is not going to feel like a 1 overall.

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          1. Speaking to only those that went in the 1st rnd. Extend that thought to rnd2 and there are some really nice players you could of had. Bo Bichette stands out Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, a year or two ago Brian Reynolds etc…

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             1. DMAR…another reason to try to keep those 2nd and subsequent immediate below picks.
                Buying large cost QOed free agents does have its downside.

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                1. If y’all did a re- draft of the Moniak draft, how would it go, round 1 & 2.

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                2. Denny…….Phillies were such a bad team…I would have preferred going with a college pitcher.
                   I remember Hinkie was pushing for Quantrill…I liked LHP Lauer.
                   Gosh…..Groome from NJ was getting a lot of hype also.
                   At the time, Nola in 2014 was going good and coming around, and then Randolph (2015) was a let down, and not coming along well.

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                3. Cal Quantrill and Bo Bichette would have been great 1 & 2 picks. Both available for Phillies on their selection.

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          2. What I remember, besides Hinkie wanting Cal Quantrill, is that most of the talk was about Pint, Puk and Groome. It was unforunate for us that in the year we drafted #1, there wasn’t a generational talent. But, also unfortunate that Mickey had that albatross of being picked #1 around his neck. Will always wish him well, but not much vs us! He had 3 hits last night, and a nice catch in CF. He needed a change of scenery, for sure! Part of us picking him was the idea that we could overpay for Gowdy. That didn’t work out so well.

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             1. That’s what happens when you try to get cute. Both picks were big misses and in this day and age you need to get something out of every draft.

                JoJo Romero came out of that draft and Hall is still around. Cole Irvin is carving out a career as Lefties tend to do. In fact he’s pitching pretty well for the O’s right now.

                But the rest of it was pretty much dreck

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          3. It was unfortunate that there wasn’t a clear cut elite talent at #1, but Moniak sure looked happy when he got drafted #1. But as they say, “Heavy is the head that wears the crown”.

             I don’t do hindsight, but I can guess that there were a few names that the Phillies were debating choosing at #1. I don’t know those names. The Phillies made their choice, Moniak didn’t work out, the Phillies moved on from him.

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    3. I was wondering what the conversations were like last night between Marsh/O’Hoppe when Marsh came up to bat. Those 2 didn’t know each other (I I don’t think) but will be forever connected.

       Also JT and O’Hoppe/Moniak. It was obvious those 2 wanted to have really good games last night.

       Hopefully both go on to have long productive MLB Careers.

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43. The current Phillies team is the 3rd best team in the NL and maybe the best team in the AL. If we can make it past the Braves and Dodgers I believe we can win it all.

    Sure there are AL teams that are going to finish with a much better record than us but I don’t think a team like the Orioles or Mariners or even the Rays would hold up against us in a 7 game series.

    The Rangers are faltering and seem to have big holes in their rotation and BP. The Astros are lingering and they would definitely be a tough draw but man it is hard to repeat.

    Of course that belief is predicated on the team as it is today is the one we take into the playoffs with health.

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    1. ……and the O’s just lost their 33-save closer Felix Bautista to TJ.

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       1. I saw that but I still think they have a solid BP and Means could come back to help lengthen it some.

          I love how the O’s have rebuilt their system and they have a good young player at just about every position. But like most good young teams they will need some seasoning before I believe them capable of winning the whole thing.

          Heck their best player isn’t even on the team yet but will be soon.

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44. Hey Jim, stay flex with Hurricane Idalia. Looks like it will hit north of you but ‘Canes are pretty fickle. You’ll be on the storm surge side of it. Hunker down and have some brews on ice.

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45. This team was constructed to have:
    – Two positional super stars in Harper and Turner
    – Really great depth at the rest of the lineup. Quality top to bottom
    – Two elite SPs
    – Quality depth at RPs
    – Quality depth at SPs

    The first few months of the season Harper (injury) and Turner were not super stars, but they are playing like that right now! In August:
    – Harper: .360/.448/.742/1.189
    – Turner: .313/.355/.606/.961

    Meanwhile, Stott and Marsh (expected to be role players) have turned into high impact players too. Stott is going to be a 4+ WAR player and Marsh a 3.5+. And our Bullpen has been better than expected

    If those guys can play like this in the playoffs, we are going to be really hard to beat.

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46. It’s most likely the Phillies will be the first WC team. If so, I expect they will play the Cubs, which could be a very tough mini-series. Much better odds if they can stack the rotation and play the first two games at CBP.

    After that, most likely, the Phillies will play the Braves, just like last year. That series could go either way. They would then have to hope someone knocks off the Dodgers because beating the Dodgers and Braves in consecutive series will be very hard.

    But if the Phillies get to the WS, I agree that they have a good chance to take it all. I think the best teams in the NL this year are better than the best teams in the AL. And, when the Phillies played the Orioles, I felt the Phillies were the better team. Remember, the dregs of the AL (teams like Oakland and KC) are just awful and pad the records of the rest of the league.

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    1. If it does come down to the Phillies and Braves.
       It could be decided by which starters excel against the bats from each team..
       Wheeler/Nola/Suarez/Walker…vs… Strider/Fried/Morton/Elder.

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       1. Walker wouldn’t pitch for us Lorenzen would.

          but imo the Braves vs Phillies playoff series this year is a coin flip if Harper and Turner are locked in. Harper alone can win a series. We saw that last year.

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          1. Both teams are’ bat loaded’ thru their line-ups, pitching will decide the outcome.
             Not sure Thomson will go with Lorenazen over Walker in a starting role….Lorenzen does have the more experience coming out of the pen than Walker.
             Walker has started every game for the last nine years…the one game he technically did not start was in 2021…it was a suspended game and the 2nd game of the year while with the Mets.
             Lorenzen, otoh, has been in 335 games…only 66 starts.
             I really do not think Thomson would trust Walker to relieve.

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             1. Agreed, unless Walker was horrible in September and Lorenzen was great that month, I can almost guarantee that Walker is starting and the question is whether he is #3 or 4 not whether he is starting at all. I am not saying this is what I would do (it might be), but I think it’s definitely what Thomson would do.

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                1. Yes….that is what I meant to say……trying to get into Thomson’s head, I see him going with playing the odds with Walker…he seems to stick to his guns and is less flexible in this situation.
                   He may however pull the trigger if one starter is faltering and bring Lorenzen early on in the game as a long man, or as what they call today the ‘bulk reliever’..I definetly can see that happening.

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             2. Before this season Lorenzen’s career high in IP was 113 and that was 2015. His most recent high was 97 last season. He’s already thrown 137 this year.

                It’s a big uptick by the time you get to the end of the season.

                For better or worse we’re going to be relying heavily again on Wheeler/Nola/Ranger to make it to the end.

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                1. DMAR…one guy who can go both ways is Matt Strahm….he could play a big role come play-offs, as he did early in the season when Ranger was still in recovery mode.

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47. I dislike the Cardinals probably as much as any poster on this site but somehow I feel a little bad for them. That storied franchise has fallen so far this season. They have scored four runs in the last four games. Hard to fathom! Now watch them sweep us when we get to St. Louis. Also, kind of feel the same about the Yankees and that’s total bonkers because the Evil Empire is my 30th favorite team in all of baseball.

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    1. Both teams earned it. The Yankees have two players, Judge and Cole and nothing else. Cards have no pitching and did nothing about it. I think it is a case of both teams have GM’s who have outlived their usefulness. The team construction has been bad for both teams.

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48. OK, Angels are throwing in the towel. Waive Giolito, Renfroe, Grichuk, Matt Moore and Reynaldo Lopez. How they screwed themselves by not trading Ohtani when they should have is another discussion. Buyers at the deadline? Stupid! But, do we have interest in any of those players?

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    1. Matt Moore would be an excellent bullpen addition.

       I’d also take Lopez over Covey. But Moore is better and lefty.

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       1. Agreed. Having more is better than having Covey.

          As for Pache, there’s nothing to indicate he is injury-prone. The first “injury” was to remove a screw that was put in place years ago. He really wasn’t injured – it was just a necessary surgery. The hip tightness seems like much ado about nothing.

          As for his skillset, I’ll remind everyone that, before Rojas was lighting it up defensively, Pache was doing the exact same thing (same type of defensive metrics) and was hitting for some power too. We may have hit the jackpot with him.

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          1. Moore, that is.

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49. I understand that we are a long way down the waiver list, but my first thought was “what an embarrassing team the Angels are”, and my 2d thought was “we could use Moore or Lopez”

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    1. ……….as long as this version of Matt Moore does not turn into the 2021 version of Matt Moore in Philadelphia, then I would put the claim in for him….it is only for 30 days salary ( approx. $1.2M)

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       1. This is bullpen Matt Moore not starting pitcher Matt Moore.

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50. Pache (who played at Lehigh tonight AND who doesn’t have any options left) is likely to be activated on Friday. Since rosters expand on Friday, the Phillies won’t have to make a corresponding move.

    Suarez is scheduled to start Sunday’s game on a pitch count. It’s likely that a reliever (I’m guessing Ortiz or Marte) will be brought up on Friday to collect 2 pay checks before getting sent down on Sunday.

    The waiver order (mostly for those Angels players) will be known Thursday morning. I doubt the Phillies will be able to get any of the relievers but you never know.

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    1. What is Pache’s future with the Phillies in your opinion? He has shown flashes of potential, but in terms of durability, not so much.

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       1. Skeet….look at his background…stayed healthy all thru the Braves org and last year with Oakland and their farm in Vegas.
          This year probably is an anomaly for him…hopefully it does not portend for the future.
          https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=pache-000cri&type=bgl&year=2022

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          1. Ultimately, it’s been Pache and Rojas. Pache’s ceiling is higher for sure, but it wouldn’t shock me if Rojas turned out to be the better player. I think you let this play out, but it’s virtually a lock that one of the two will end up being moved.

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       2. I think the Phillies like Pache, but it complicates things when he doesn’t have any options left. Marsh is not going anywhere, let’s get it out of the way. If Harper wants to stay at 1B, then I think Rojas and Pache both make the team for 2024. If Harper plays in the OF, then I think Rojas goes to Lehigh. The Phillies need to see another year from Pache to make sure that what he’s doing now is not an outlier.

          Right now, I think Rojas has more trade value than Pache. Do I think any of the OFs will be traded this offseason? No. I think the only way Rojas gets traded is for a controllable young pitcher.

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51. Bowden has his top 50. Crawford at 24.

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    1. That is amazing….he is soaring up the prospect ladder.
       I can also see him moving up MLB.com’s ranking from currently 81st to into the top 50.

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52. The Phillies have amazing depth in centerfield – three of their best young players can man the position (Marsh, Pache and Rojas), and two in a dominant fashion (Pache and Rojas) and their best position prospect (Crawford) also plays there and is an elite prospect.

    Ultimately, I think Marsh is a corner outfielder – he’s already a first division regular and his power brings the promise of even more growth. Sooner or later, one of Rojas or Pache has to be moved – but they don’t need to make that decision now or even next year.

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    1. Yes, and a couple of years back they had nothing there, amazing or extremely lucky on their part to fill the void so quickly. Credit to DD pushing all the buttons.

       Agree on Marsh and the urgency to move one of them.

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       1. Lets not forget the forgotten man…Simon Muzziotti….a very good defensive CFer and makes plenty of contact and power game has tweeked up a notch or two as he has got older..

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          1. Yes, you’re right. If I’m a team like the Royals or Nationals, I am getting him onto my roster. He’s a really decent player!!!! He’s probably a second division starter at worst and might turn out to be better than that.

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             1. Yep….remember Ender inciarte of the Braves?
                Could turn out be that type of player.

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    2. I look at it a little differently. I think that with their speed, defense and developing hitting, all of Marsh, Rojas and Pache may be worth keeping. When you look at the WAR (I looked in B-Ref) for Casty or Schwarbs, I am not sure that we would not get just as much if not more from the kids. Now Schwarber’s HR power and intangibles makes me hesitant to trade him, but I think that Castellanos is replaceable. If Bryce stays at 1B, we don’t need to resign Hoskins- just let the young players keep developing.

       I do agree that anyone playing CF not named Marsh, Rojas, Pache or Crawford should be dealt as depth to bring back prospects in areas of greater need.

       Of course, the professional staff has the scouting and analytical data to determine the likelihood of the continued development of the Daycare toward the above expectation- which I do not. But I think we have the potential for an elite or near-elite defensive team that still provides plenty offensively. We can use the dollars saved to focus on getting the pitching staff up to elite level.

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53. I liked him from when the Bosox screwed up, and we got him, Romus, but Rojas and Pache have surpassed him. How does Crawford play defensive CF compared to Rojas and Pache. I have said it before. I just love the way Rojas plays CF, and Pache may be as good. Marsh in Leftfield makes the defensive OF that much better. He has given us a really good year so far. Muzziotti will greatly benefit from a new opportunity elsewhere.

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    1. Well Muzziotti will get his chance to see what awaits him in the major league come Nov., he will be a free agent.

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54. The team has been really fun to watch these past few games. It is really nice when almost everyone is contributing in some way. Dugout sure looks like a happy place at this time. Hope things continue. After today back on the festival train in Northern Indiana over Labor Day weekend. No MLB Extra Innings in the RV. The guys mentioned that the Yankees hit I think Kruk said 74 in a month in 2019. That is hard to fathom watching these Phillies and only at 56 or so. Keep it up guys and everyone have a great Labo Day weekend.

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55. Spencer Howard released by Yankees. Why is Castro taking up a 40 man slot and on this team?

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    1. I ask the same question about Castro but I’m not supposed to nitpick at that stuff LOL

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    2. Agreed that Castro is wasted space – I haven’t seen any reason they should put him into a game.

       Sad about Spencer Howard. He lost his arm strength while with the Phillies (certainly no ability to pitch more than a few innings without losing serious velocity) and never got it back. I’d take a chance on him in the bp at LHV.

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       1. When the Rangers took him in that deal, I thought they were out of their minds. He simply did not have the physical ability to do the things they were asking him to do. You can only watch a pitcher’s velocity drop 6 or 7 MPH by the third inning so many times before you realize that situation is not likely to resolve itself.

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          1. Spencer’s metrics this year are quirky……great K/9….little below average not geat BB/9…..but gave up way way too many HRs, 8 HRs in 21 innings pitched,…ala Nola.
             He only started 2 games, so Rangers and Yankees were looking at him ouit of the pen.
             Shame the way the velo just went south for him.
             https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=howard000spe

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    3. Castro is only 24, plays a good defensive 3B (passable at 2B), and he hits well against left-handed pitching. I think you stick with him.

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       1. I didn’t realize he was 24 – that’s interesting. Still, I’d prefer to read about him while he works at his craft in the minors.

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          1. Good point, also Topper isn’t using him much, even against LHP, so not sure what their plan for him is…?

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56. After Lorenzen’s no hitter, he had pitched 17 innings while giving up 2 runs since the trade. I was screaming that the Phillies should “sign him up now” for the next few years. Since then, his last 3 starts have yielded 15 innings and 13 earned runs. It’s just like me to get all excited and jump the gun.

    Watching him more, it seems like he doesn’t have that good command needed and the strike out totals needed to be a really good MLB pitcher. DMAR noted that he’s well past his innings total for his career. I believe he’s the sixth pitcher (or long man/spot starter) for the playoffs. And now I’m on the resign Nola bandwagon to boot.

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    1. Yeah, he appears tired to me. I also think he flys around a lot in his follow thru, sometimes landing on 2 feet and sometimes 1. Seems wild lately and I think the no-hitter and the innings pitched are taking their toll. Perhaps the 6 man rotation will give him some relief.

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57. I’m not sure people appreciate just how good Brandon Marsh has become (whereas I think they DO appreciate how good Stott has become). He’s a good fielder, has a solid hit tool, and a great eye. If develops even moderate power you’re looking at an all-star type player. Right now, he projects as a 4+ WAR player. I didn’t think he would ever be this good, let alone be this good this year. Shows you what plate discipline will do for you.

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    1. I do and have for a few months. He’s really won me over that’s why he would never be out of my LU. Left Right doesn’t matter I would just make him my full time LF.

       Bohm too. His defense at 3B today was stellar.

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    2. Marsh – 4 walks today and a very long Stott-like 5th AB that ended in a ground out. His plate discipline is remarkable – 12% ab end in walks.

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58. Yikes, the bullpen is imploding…

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    1. Yeah, sometimes it happens. They won the series – that’s the biggest thing.

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59. It’s a shame that the excitement of Turner’s and Harper’s HRs was quelled by a poor BP today. Soto can’t walk two guys and Kimbrel just melted down. He can’t pitch as much as we are pitching him, and I just don’t know what else to do? Our 3,4 and 5 SPs are just not stepping up and grabbing the #3 spot, and Ranger is still on the IL. I know we had an overall terrific August, with a ton of HRs, and good signs from Wheeler and Nola. But I have BP worries. I have SP worries. We had to go to Kimbrel last night because Bellatti couldn’t mop up the game and that may be the cause for today’s loss. Tough to have a great month end like this. Milwaukee and San Diego won’t be easy.

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    1. I think Bellatti got out of that jam and closed it out. I think they got Kimbrel up but he didn’t come in.

       It’s been a season of incredible moments, incredible growth I want so much for them to be able to cap it off with a title.

       Last year didn’t hurt as much as some other title losses in part because of the way they backed into the playoffs and ultimately they lost to the best team in all of baseball. + they stuck it to the Braves which was kind of a WS in and of itself.

       This year though its going to hurt if they go home empty handed.

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    2. People forget that Kimbrel is 35 and had 0.2 WAR last season. He’s had a good year so far but you wonder how long he can last. He had his 59th game today. Lately, he’s been pitching in 63-67 games per season. The Phillies have to give some of the load to somebody else.

       Soto throws hard but he’s hardly dominant and his WAR bear it out. Seranthony is in the same boat as Soto.

       This leaves Alvarado as the logical choice to poach saves. But he’s been hurt twice already.

       Maybe Hoffman can take on more high leverage situations.

       Juggling a bullpen is not easy.

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    3. matt13 – I share your concern about a tired Kimbrel and some inconsistency with Alvy and Seranthony – but I would think that we could see Ranger return to the pen in the playoffs because he is so darned good at it. That should take some of the burden off the bp as constructed now.

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60. My bad DMAR! It was getting Kimbrel up, and warming up. Just a tough loss and I just watched the replay of the k/WP, and think Stubbs should have blocked the pitch. We need to bounce back strong vs Milwaukee and SD.

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    1. No worries Matt. I’m with Catch just keeping taking 2 of 3 and we’ll be fine…

       I would not have faulted them at all if they actually started the game with some regulars on the bench for some rest.

       I’m just hoping they have something left by the time playoffs do come around. I can’t remember a more emotional August of Phillies baseball in my lifetime.

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61. With 28 games to go I’m hoping they can go at least 17-11. They have 6 against the Braves. 3 Against the Brew Crew and 3 Against the Padres.

    The rest of the schedule are teams they should easily take 2 of 3 from. That would put us at 91 Ws.

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    1. DMAR…you are testing us , right?
       ’28 games to go’
       3 @ MIL
       3 @SD
       3-MIA
       4-Bravos
       3@StL
       3@Atl
       4-Mets
       3-Pitt
       3@Mets
       ……..29 games

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       1. Math was never my strong suit Romus LOL

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62. Harper with 300 HRs…ranks 157th in MLB history, tied with Phillies Chuck Klein , and now one behind Rogers Hornsby.

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    1. The question with Harper is whether he can stay healthy enough to reach that 500 HR club with Michael Jack. Schmidty’s feeling pretty lonely as the only Phillies representative of the club.

       Harper’s overall hitting game lends itself very well to aging, so it will come down to whether or not the injuries catch up to him.

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       1. Schmidt was still hitting 30+ home runs per year well into his 30s AND he was insanely healthy.

          Bryce is 30 right now. Starting at age 31, he would have to hit 30+ for the next 6 years to even have a shot at 500 HRs. I mean it’s doable for Harper, but it’s a tough ask.

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          1. He absolutely doesn’t need to hit 30+ for 6 years. If he did that, he’d be basically guaranteed to get there on his CURRENT contract. Let alone anything he does AFTER it. He’s in the Pujols mold where he’s a pure hitter that has power, not a power hitter. So he can stick around into his 40s, health permitting.

             Even including 2020 and injured years, Harper’s averaging 25 HRs per year (and that average will go up with each HR he hits for the rest of this year).
             Considering both this year and last year he’s matched that pace (on a rate basis) in spite of very serious injuries, I think it’s fair to say if he’s healthy he can average 30 per year for the next 3 seasons. Then if he averages 18 for the next 5 (through the end of his Phillies contract) that would leave him 20 short (again, subtracting whatever else he hits this year).

             20 is easily obtainable as an exclusively DH/pinch hitter role in a couple years. So say he’s a part-time player at 39 and 40 and hits 12 and 8, respectively. There’s your 500.

             Obviously this is all very health dependent, and he could fall off a cliff at any point. But he’s definitely on track to get to 500 currently.

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          2. Longer reply didn’t get posted, Jim might have to approve it.

             Shorter reply: he doesn’t need to hit 30+ for 6 years. Averaging 30 for the next 3, then 18 for the next 5 (the rest of his current contract) would put him 20 shy. Then he can DH/pinch hit for a couple years to get those. And that’s not counting whatever else he hits THIS year.

             He’s like Pujols in that he’s a hitter with power, not a power hitter. So health permitting, he’s on track.

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             1. And just to clarify how Bryce can be on track despite being a much less prolific HR hitter than Schmidt:

                Schmidt hit his first MLB HR at 22. At 22, Harper was already over 50 HRs. Harper will probably end with fewer total than Schmidt, but the head start keeps him in line with the 500 goal despite the difference in blasts per annum (and the, now, 3 shortened seasons for Harper).

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                1. I think Harper ends up in the 450 area code….his back will be the issue as he ages and probably keep him out at different intervals thru a season.
                   On any of his violent swings he could wrench it again.

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                2. Agree with Romus, I don’t see him reaching the 500 plateau, but I would be delighted to say “I sure was wrong about that”!

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                3. You’re right that you never know what will happen with Harper and his back, but I think he’s being pretty smart with it and will manage that issue.

                   As for where he ends up? I think it will be north of 500 and less than 600. How he performs at ages 33 and 34 are going to tell us a lot about how long he can keep it up. But he’s improve as a hitter a lot, even while he’s been with the Phillies. The player who was extremely productive with flashes of greatness in 2019 isn’t close to the otherworldly hitter we’ve seen (aside from injuries) since 2021 (and, if you look back at it, perhaps even 2020). These days, I am surprised when Harper makes an out. He’s amazing.

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63. https://x.com/mlbpipeline/status/1697065846026420709?s=46&t=-U_MfMB4sZDD0dW6wRaryg

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    1. Just amazing….4 hits…total EV on the 4 hits probaly < 200..his speed is off the charts…and the contact ability has to be 65/70 plus.
       With a stop at Reading sometime next season, he could be knocking on the MLB door in 2025.

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    2. Great video because it pretty much encapsulates everything JC is as a hitter. He has great barrel awareness .

       Speed never slumps…

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64. Spencer Howard… anyone? He’s been released by the Yankees. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/former-phillies-top-prospect-released-by-yankees/ar-AA1g0FMi?cvid=ad541ad037b649cba020ad480775a282&ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover&ei=7

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    1. In the words of Roseanne Roseannadanna, “Never Mind.” Already posted above.

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       1. Sorry again. Emily Litella, played Gilda Radner, said “Nevermind”. Wow, must be the full moon.

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          1. Strike three…….it was a Blue Moon! LOL

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    2. I don’t know if Howard was happy with the way the Phillies treated him (certainly his father wasn’t happy with the fans).

       He needs to get complete healthy and then have a showcase for teams.

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       1. Moms and Dads always have a certain bias towards their kids. Perfectly natural and ok. We don’t really know the true stories behind most of these journeys.

          We as fans tend to judge them with so little knowledge. Also natural but maybe not ok.

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65. The Yankees are 10 games behind in the wild card race but they’re promoting 20 year old Jasson Dominguez after 9 games at AAA. I guess they’re trying to generate some excitement for their fans.

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    1. What a disaster they have become. Not much to show in talent for that payroll. Someone said the other day its Judge and Cole and nothing else…

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    2. The Yankees are in a bad place (you could see this coming) and need to rebuild. I am really enjoying the down years for the Yankees, Mets (the down period won’t last long for them) and Cardinals.

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       1. Cashman did them in….Stanton trade was a horrendous move.
          and poorAaron Boone…. looks to be ready to be given the heave ho in Yankee fashion.

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       2. In today’s game, Anthony Volpe was hitting 3rd with his .697 OPS. However, it seems that SS offense is down around the league because Volpe’s oWar is 1.9. He does have a good glove though.

          Their top 100 prospect, Everson Pereira, is looking overmatched.

          I thought the Marlins were crazy giving Stanton that deal because he was a big guy, he had no range in RF and you figure that he was going to get injured more and decline faster. And I couldn’t believe the Marlins pawned him off on the Yankees. In 6 years with the Yankees, he’s had 4 years of sub 1 WAR. Stanton is still owed 4/98 which includes money kicked in from the Marlins. You figure those 4 years will be bad. So do the Yankees eat his contract and cut him? Or do they keep on trotting him out there? This is almost like when the Phillies refused to eat Ryan Howard’s extension and cut him. The Yankees are in the same boat.

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66. Today’s players have an advantage over players of yesteryear to get to 500 HRs. The advantage is the designated hitter. Babe Ruth got to 714 without the aid of the DH. Aaron surpassed Ruth without the benefit of the DH. I realize that the pitching today is far superior but it is what it is.

    Ruth pitched parts of 7 seasons with the Red Sox and won 89 games. In all the years he was with the Yankees he pitched in 5 (and won 5) games for 31 innings. If there was a DH back then, Ruth would have been what Ohtani is today. And by not playing the field imagine how many HRs he might have hit.

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    1. Sure but you ever see video of the pitchers back then? They look like they were throwing upper 80s. The velo right now is more than ever before due to all these pitching labs. It has even filtered down to the youth level. My oldest son is 15, a freshman and he regularly sees pitchers in the 85-90 range. These kids are bigger and stronger and have better mechanics than ever. So while the DH is an advantage for those who use it like Ohtani, the level of competition is much higher today. Pitchers are better today.

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       1. Ruth also didn’t have to face the pitchers who were barred because of the color of their skin

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          1. Good point.

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    2. I hear this a lot Ciada and I just can’t buy into comparing players of different eras.

       Too many variables to do so fairly or accurately. While I appreciate the sentiment and the opportunity for debate I don’t think it exists.

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67. v! – I think I wrote at the end of the first paragraph: I realize that the pitching today is far superior….

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    1. Up until about 15 years or so, I felt the baseball was pretty comparable across eras. This is no longer true, although most great players from any era would probably be great today, such as, for example, Ted Williams, who was probably the greatest pure hitter that ever lived. Anyway, today the pitchers throw so much harder and their breaking stuff is better than ever. I remember, in the late 80s when Todd Worrell would throw 97 and 98 and we would be amazed. Today that’s just routine stuff from a second tier reliever like Jeff Hoffman (no offense to him, but he’s not an elite reliever).

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       1. That said, I still think there is room for pitchers to succeed who do something different. I see absolutely no reason why we couldn’t have another dominant knuckleball pitcher and am very surprised there have been none really over the last 6 or 7 years (since Dickey retired). If I were running a big league team, I’d have at least two guys in my system at all times trying to master that pitch. But the new baseball orthodoxy rejects the knuckleballer and anyone else who doesn’t throw hard, so it’s not happening.

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          1. Agree…..the hi-velo pitchers are the shining toy.
             There are those anomalies of guys trying something different….screwball, Brent Honeywell, which did him in……and those last breed of knuckleball guys like RA Dickey and Tim Wakefield.
             But the money is not there and they are not sexy enough it seems.

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             1. I don’t think it’s the money, it’s the training and opportunity.

                Here’s how I view it.

                If you have a minor league system, essentially 60 percent (probably more like 70 to 75 percent, but I’m nitpicking) have essentially no chance to be contributors at the big league level. If that’s the case (and, truly, it is), then it gives you the opportunity to try different things and experiment. Having 2 or 3 guys in your system who are trying to learn how to become knuckleball pitchers wouldn’t affect anything at all and if you hit on a few of them it would be worth all the experimentation. The fact that nobody will do this, or even be open to it, is a real mystery to me.

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                1. But the young pitcher has to agree to do it.
                   I doubt very much any young pitcher will change his whole ‘system’ at that point.
                   Traditionally, knuckleball ptichers have started in their late 20s/early 30s, realizing it may be the only way to the majors for them.
                   For Dickey, Wilelm and Wakefield that was the case.

                   As for the money…..it is not a high- salaried mega long term contract that awaits knucklers.

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    2. Yes, I see that now. I missed that. my bad

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68. Any thoughts on who gets called up tomorrow? Is there a RP worth a shot? I am concerned the BP is leaking oil. I know the Playoff plan is to have Lorenzen or Sanchez or Walker out of the BP, and maybe 2 of them, but I want to get to the Playoffs. We have 2 guys, Covey and Bellatti, who can only be used in a blow out. Ser’A does not look anything like his old self, and Strahm and Kimbrel have pitched a lot.I would like a couple frsh arms to give these guys a break, and hopefully have them ready for October. Of course, we can’t blow leads either, so we can actually get to October. Earlier, I had hopes for Griff, but he is noy close to being ready to come up.

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    1. I’m hoping it’s not something boring like Ortiz or Brogdon. Feels like this organization will go that route. Those two guys are no better than Covey and Bellatti. We must have someone down there (Kekering??) who could contribute at a higher level.

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       1. I don’t think Kiekering is on the 40 man roster. Not sure if that matters or not

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          1. Plus he is facing AA hitters right now.
             Not sure they want him in the stretch drive against MLB hitters on teams still fighting for a play-off spot.

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          2. It does not matter any more. Just need to be in the organization by Aug. 31.

             My guess is they bring Marte back. 5 scoreless outings since going down and the last one was 2 IP. He more than Ortiz gives them a shot at higher leverage relief. They’ll need to make room for Suarez too so it might also be him.

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    2. If someone would’ve told me in March that Painter, Abel, and McGarry would log a combined zero appearances this year for the Phils, I would’ve been SHOCKED. I didn’t expect all three, or even two, but with Painter’s injury here we are…

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69. New discussion post activated. I’m closing this one to comments.

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Comments are closed.