Minor Observances

Other Stuff

These are things I’ve observed at the Complex this season.

I’ve culled these questions from the comments section of the last mailbag.  Murray, I wasn’t ignoring your question, just didn’t want to discuss a prospect in the Phillies’ discussion.

Romus, I’m sure you are aware (but just in case) that the new CBA finally was finally published a month ago.  For anyone interested, open MLB.com, open Players on the pull-down menu, select MLB Players Association, open Resources on the pull-down menu, select CBA, scroll down and select Basic Agreement 2022-2026.

I(heart)PP: sure, it is not that long after the rule change, but what changes do you see based on the elimination of the shift in the minors, and coaching strategy in the minors?

I can’t speak for the upper levels, but at Clearwater, they are still playing with the “pie wedge” extending from second base, an area where defenders cannot stand prior to the pitch.  Since it’s not likely to ever make it to the big leagues, I pay little attention to how the defense approaches it.  For the most part, and this pertains to the FCL too, defenses are mostly straight away.

Dean Harner: why do you think the Phillies continue with Sosa and Harrison. I dread seeing them play and can’t believe giving some young guys a chance would hurt, even if on a rotating basis.

I’m not going to address the Phillies’ portion of this question in this article.  The reason that we won’t see young guys even on a rotating basis is because Dombrowski does not trust prospects.  It will take (it has taken) some unfortunate circumstances for the Phillies to promote one or more of their young prospects.

It took an injury to Pache and a need for outfield defense to get Rojas called up.  He is playing incredibly well and will force the Phillies to make a tough decision when Pache is finished with his rehab.  Personally, I would like to just hand him the CF job but who knows what can happen in the next week or two.  He could go oh for 3 or 4 games and never get another start this season.

SWFL Frank: Jim, if you’re willing to give your “scout” opinion, what do you think of Justin Crawford and Emaarion Boyd?

I think Crawford and Boyd are extremely thin, especially in their hips.  They don’t appear to have the body type where you can expect a lot of growth.  They have added some muscle.  That is probably taken into consideration in the decision to leave them in Clearwater all season – more coaches and better facilities than at Jersey Shore.

Athletically, they are essentially the same player – excellent defenders with a lot of range, fast on the bases with a lot of steals and extra bases, and good approaches at the plate.  Not that he’s untouchable if the right trade came along, but Crawford probably figures prominently in their future plans.  If Boyd doesn’t surpass Crawford during the next couple of years, he’s probably just another trade piece down the road.

DPhrey: Let’s flip this one a bit, Jim, is there anybody that we should be throwing a bit more gas on? Someone you or people you trust have seen that either flies under the radar or is maybe on the radar and completely deserving of the hype?

Leonardo Rondon is a 5’7 middle infielder who the Phillies have decided to turn into a catcher.  He’s a switch hitter who makes decent contact and also was good plate awareness (10 walks and 11 Ks in 84 PA).  He’s a take-charge guy with a good baseball IQ.  His energy reminds me of Utley.  He’ll be a project but maybe he’s the next Chooch?

Felix Reyes is a 6’3 outfielder who looks much bigger than his listed 195 pounds.  He spent his first 2 seasons playing the corners in the infield and outfield.  To everyone’s surprise, the Phillies had him at SS in spring training.  He’s no Oneil Cruz, but he looked much better than I expected.  That experiment ended when the Threshers needed a first baseman and Reyes was called up.  He hit well enough to avoid being returned to the FCL when the injured player returned.  He has played both infield corners for the Threshers.  He’s another guy with good plate recognition (16 walks and 25 Ks in 235 PA).  I mentioned his name to a Cubs scout who saw him as a DH-only type.  Oh well, we’ll see.

Raylin Heredia is the guy every scout comes to see at the Complex.  Some may have heard of him, but just in case, I’ll mention him here.  He’s hitting .338 with a .979 OPS.  He has a really good approach in the box and is walking at a 10.7% rate.  But, his 26% K rate is a bit too high.

Orion Kerkering (Oh Ryan) is another player you should have heard of.  If not, he looked so good in ST, I anticipated a quick rise through the organization and maybe a call-up if necessary.  I still believe he could help the big club this season, but next season could be a sure thing.

Pan Wen-Hui (Pan When Hway) is also a player who might not be a secret.  I’ve watched him since ST.  He arrived from Taiwan with as many as ten pitches.  He was dismayed starting at Low-A, but the Phillies had to introduce him to how pitchers prepare for American professional baseball.  Pan was accustomed to pitching once a week.  He routinely threw 75-100 pitches each day between starts.  He has excellent velocity and command.  The Phillies have brought him along as a bulk reliever this year but are prepared to stretch him out as a starter next season.  Bulk reliever is the new term for a long reliever, any reliever who is expected and able to pitch more than one inning.

Micah Ottenbreit was looking good in his bullpen sessions as he rehabbed back from TJ surgery.  He had a setback during his second rehab appearance (7/7) and hasn’t pitched since.  But, if he responds to further rehab, he still looks like a solid pitcher to me.

Jonh Henriquez is a truck driver who stopped by the Dominican Academy and asked for a tryout.  He had upper-90s stuff and was signed.  He tossed six DSL inning last year and was brought stateside this spring.  He’s older at 23 years, but he started later with no recorded baseball history.  He’s still mid-to-upper 90s and is striking out a batter per inning.  His walk rate is high, but hopefully, continued instruction can bring that down.  His 13 wins so far this season are inflated by the rule that starters have to go five innings to record a win.

Bryan Rincon is a 19-year-old middle infielder who the Phillies inserted in the Threshers starting lineup at SS and he has improved on the fly.  He only hit .176 last season (his first after being drafted out of HS), but the Phillies stuck with him and he’s hitting .231 with some pop (8 HRs).

Murray: Question for you Jim – what’s your thoughts on Simmons? He’s finally having the season we hoped for after scuffling for a few years. He was recently back in CWater on a rehab so I’m sure you saw him. How does he look different than prior years? Thanks.

Sorry, it took so long to answer you.  You’ve asked this a couple times.  I didn’t want to answer in the Phillies discussion.

Kendall Simmons is one of the last of “my guys” in the organization, guys who will go out of their way to say hello to me.  COVID and the resulting rules at the Complex have made it a little harder to get close to the players.

Simmons has looked good since before ST.  But an injury delayed his start to the season.  He has been on the IL twice since, for concussion protocol for the most recent visit.  It’s a darn shame because he has looked very good every time he came through the Complex.  He has an incredibly quick bat and can turn on inside fastballs while keeping the ball fair.  His power is impressive.  His future is probably second base and he is Rule 5 eligible.  It’ll be interesting to see what the Phillies do this offseason.

Trenton Guy: Jim, who are your favorite (maybe to 5ish) Phillies prospects to follow right now?  Not neccesarily the 5 best or highest rated, but the ones you find yourself checking in on everytime they play.

Darick Hall (one of “my guys”), Bailey Falter (another one of “my guys”) even after he was traded, Tyler Phillips, Noah Skirrow, Nick Ward, Carlos De La Cruz, Dominic Pipkin, Samuel Aldegheri, Gabriel Rincones, Marcus Lee Sang, Pan Wen-Hui, Lee Hao Yu when he was with us, the Threshers when they are on the road or if I miss a home game, Mavis Graves, Yemal Flores, Yhoswar Garcia, Leonardo Rondon, and Raylin Heredia.

The Guru: Jim, how does Mavis Graves look? He’s taking his lumps in the FCL after getting drafted last season. Graves is a tall guy (6’6″) but I heard that his fastball is upper 80s?

Mavis Graves looks like a left-handed Ben Brown to me.  Same general build.  He strikes out guys at better than one per inning.  However, the comp stops there.  He is having difficulty with location.  I don’t know his exact velocity, it’s not posted at the games.  But, I’ve made random visits behind scouts and I think he’s low 90s, 90-92.  He’s young though and coachable.

Murray: What do we make of Kroon? He’s had a terrific season as a slightly older AA guy. He plays lots of positions too. Major league bench player potential?

Yes.  He was on a better track to the majors when they brought him to major league camp a couple years ago.  His momentum was derailed by an injury.

Romus: … current Thresher 22-year old LHP Danny Wilkinson … What is he throwing … what is his arsenal?

I think fastball, curveball, slider.  Low 90s on his FB.

The new crop of 2023 players looks good.  I’ve seen some BP and fielding practices.  Infielders will have to have that second crow hop drilled out of them.  They all seem to do it.  The players they face down here are too fast to take that much time throwing to first.

Aidan Miller looks like he’s ahead of any of our recent first-round picks (non-pitchers).  He has the body of a college guy.  He looks like he spent his senior year in the weight room.  He packs a big wallop in his swing.  He has a strong arm from SS.

I try not to get caught up with all the hype about young players and certainly don’t want to add to it.  But, Miller looks very good so far.  I look forward to watching him at Clearwater next season.

I don’t know if any of you noticed that the Phillies put almost all of their 2022 draft picks on the 2023 Threshers.  I don’t expect them to promote many more Threshers (including Crawford and Boyd) to Jersey Shore this season.  I thought they might want to give them a little taste of the next level, but that’s not necessarily part of their plan.  I’ve been led to believe that they will play through the playoffs with the Threshers.

It’s entirely likely that this year’s draft class will become the 2024 Threshers.

293 thoughts on “Minor Observances”

  1. Great stuff Jim.

    I hadn’t know about Raylin Heredia but he has me excited. Will definitely watch him going forward.

    Love the story of the truck driver who throws in the 90s. What a fun story. Hope he makes it.

    I am really high on Orion too. He seems like those elite BP prospects that other teams seem to find. The Cardinals in particular. Awesome to have him in our system. I too expect him to get a look this year. Or definitely next year.

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    1. Agreed, what a great story. You can’t find this level of reporting anywhere else. Not just these great anecdotes but the first person scouting. Couple of names from Jim’s responses that weren’t on my radar. Gotta love PP!

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  2. Abel’s performance on Thursday night really shows what he is right now. A pitcher with elite, strikeout stuff, but poor ability to command it. unfortunately, he really can’t help the Phillies until he figures it out. no matter how electric the stuff is. MLB hitters won’t chase.

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    1. Hi. I just saw what you said about Abel which I think is a good point about his command not exactly being there yet. I was surprised when you said MLB hitters won’t chase no matter how electric his stuff is. Why wouldn’t they? On another note, I have two questions for you. First, What are your thoughts on Lorenzen’s no hitter? Second, Do you see the Phillies getting even stronger with Lorenzen on the team?

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      1. MLB hitters are really good. If they know a pitcher has command issues, they are less likely to chase bad pitches than against a pitcher with great command.

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  3. Thanks Jim. Although he’s hitting only 230, Bryan Rincon gets me excited as a legit prospect. He’s a take charge SS with some pop who they’ve had in the middle of the lineup most of the year.
    I’m surprised they haven’t tried adding Heredia to the FCL squad but now they’re definitely running out of at bats to offer with the new picks playing there.
    I could see Simmons playing in Arizona to help with the rule 5 decision. He looks like he’s figured things out to me which makes him valuable.
    Congrats to Media little league! On to Williamsport! And in a year when the Phillies are playing in the game there too. Very cool.

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  5. I’m glad to see your comments on Rojas – Pache has the better “pedigree” but the way Rojas has played I think he has earned the chance to stay in the lineup. His defense is beautiful to watch. He also seems to be a good teammate, infectious enthusiasm.

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    1. Hi. I just saw what you said about Rojas which is so true! I really like seeing Rojas play! On another note, I have two questions for you. First, What are your thoughts on Lorenzen’s no hitter? Second, Do you see the Phillies getting even stronger with Lorenzen on the team?

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  6. Thank yuo Jim for all the info.
    Aidan Miller does have a great advantage…his Dad owns and operates a sports training facilty/complex not far from Clearwater.
    He says he has worked out in the off-season with MLB players like Pete Alonso and others.

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  7. Great stuff, Jim. I always appreciate your views on the prospects, and I am really high on Oh Ryan.

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  8. I’ll ask but realize you don’t have the answer. Why do we get close to 0% ROI in regards to our high priced LA signings? This goes back to high 6 to low 7 figure guys like Tocci, Pujols, Encarnarcion, Ortiz, Garcia, Morales, etc. Have you ever spoken to anyone down there about it.

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  9. Jim … thank for these great observations. Most of us can only scout the stat line … so, in that vain, here is question I hope you can get to next time.

    I certainly remember you tempering everyone about Luis Garcia and, clearly, you were spot on. I remember you having some thoughts on Jordan Viars, I believe maybe he was a bit stubborn in listening to advice (don’t remember your exact words).

    While his stats are not great, he appears to be growing a bit.

    April – June – .199/.292/.322/.614 – 171 ABs
    July – Aug – .269/.380/.448/.828 – 67 ABs

    obviously, SSS applies, but do you see anything here that makes you optimistic? Have you seen any maturity in his approach?

    Thanks again for all you do!

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  10. Jim, Thanks for your observations on Justin Crawford and Emaarion Boyd. I’ve made the same observation about Crawford’s physique but keep seeing persons far more knowledgeable than me say he will grow into developing adequate power. I certainly hope so and his numbers this year surely are impressive.

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      1. Perhaps Phillies are prepping to keep the pipeline stocked …Jim writes Leonardo Rondon is being tried as a catcher.

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        1. Believe Rickardo Perez was suspended for PEDs.
          Joalbert Angulo also served a PED suspension. The team released Angulo post suspension.
          Not saying they will cut ties with Perez.

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          1. Perez was a $1.2M signing bonus.
            I think they will try to work things out with him….they have invested a bit more than the normal latin signing into his development so far.

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  12. Hi Jim. I have two questions for you. First, What are your thoughts on Lorenzen’s no hitter? Second, Do you see the Phillies getting even stronger with Lorenzen on the team?

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  13. Me 3, had to be very serious considering he’s missed the entire year. I wonder if he was not a high priced LA signing who showed early stateside success, if they would not have just cut him. Reverts back to my original question, why has this organization have an abysmal track record with their high priced LA signings? And the same guy has been there for decades???

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  14. Thank you Jim , lovely insight.

    Orion sounds amazing, and I as well would like to keep Rojas at CF, pitchers must feel the same way lol.

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  15. Keith Law’s mid season top 60 prospects.

    https://theathletic.com/4703833/2023/07/21/mlb-top-prospects-2023-minor-leaguers/?source=user_shared_article

    Painter and Abel are honorable mention. Only Philly on the list is Crawford @28 overall.

    Crawford, the Phillies’ first-round pick last year, was supposed to be a long-term projection guy who could run and play center but had to add all this strength to get to any power. Wrong, Jack Germondo! Crawford’s BP before the Futures Game had him driving the ball out the other way, and once he gets out of the graveyards of the Florida State League he’s going to start putting balls in seats in the games, which is terrifying because he hasn’t begun to fill out. He is, also, a plus-plus runner who can play center, with 36 steals in 41 attempts, and has already shown strong bat-to-ball skills. This could be very special — he might be the player his father, Carl, was supposed to be but never was.

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    1. It’s crazy that Keith Law would say that Justin would be better than his father, considering Carl had a 15 year career and 39.1 WAR. That amount of WAR is no joke, I can’t recall a Phillies OF that had that much WAR. After Rolen, I think only Rollins and Utley (homegrown position players) had more WAR than that.

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      1. KLaw is not one for hyperbole. He calls it like he sees it. And he sees Crawford as an elite prospect. That’s very exciting. I agree with his comments that Crawford has surpassed my expectations of early results. I expected a far greener prospect that would take longer to develop. I am very excited about Crawford’s potential. The promotion to JS will be a good test.

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        1. Carl Crawford was a very good player for a solid bit. 4 time all star, won a silver slugger & a GG in Center field. Cheep shot by washed K Law. Nothing to do w/ Justin as I’m a very big fan. At most, K Law has seen our top 10 prospects 1 time live in a minor league game this year. Prob had the athletic send him to Jax holiday 3 or 4 times…I followed Spencer Howard only in box scores. Was excited about the velocity & all the goods I heard about….after watching literally 3 innings on TV in his debut, it was so absolutely clear he had a gross, flat, uncompetitive fastball…Law liked the metrics but didn’t watch him enough … lazy bum comes out with a top “60” list…aka, the cutoff to which he can’t he can no longer Google search his way into credibility…guy goes to the cap cod league every summer and gets drunk at the bar for a weekend watching guys play some fall ball…that’s it….

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        2. Law’s comments, when they are critical, can often be painful, but more often than not, his assessments are accurate, as much as I hate to admit that.

          He was right last year about Mick Abel’s struggles with command (and sometimes control) and he’s been right about many of our prospects who did not work out.

          But we can be really excited about Crawford. He has a chance to be the first, and I’m not kidding, the very first, toolsy first round high school outfielder that has worked out for this team. This kid has 65-70 speed and a 65-70 hit tool. I saw him in the futures game and he fought off outstanding pitching pretty damn well for a 19 year-old.

          As for comps to his dad, they are not really helpful except to the extent you think he might fill out since his dad appeared to be very strong. But there’s no reason he couldn’t be a better player than his father. Bobby Bonds was a damned good player. He had 58 bWAR and was probably a couple of excellent season away from the Hall of Fame, but his son blew right by him as a player. The same was true with Ken Griffey, Jr.

          So, of course it’s possible that Justin turns out to be a better player than Carl.

          Right now, I have Crawford second in the system after Abel. In my mind, Crawford has blown by Abel as a prospect. If Crawford develops even 55 level power, he’s going to be a top 10 prospect in baseball.

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  17. Thank you Jimmy. I was surprised that you didn’t touch on Bergolla? Here’s to hoping he’s not Luis Garcia all over again 🙂

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    1. DMAR…that is an interesting point on him
      More than likely they will start him back at CLW next spring and if he rakes, then up to JS as a 19-year old.

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      1. Yeah, Bergolla should be back at Clearwater but he’s had a decent year. The issue with him is that he’s not that big (5’11, 165lbs) and he has no power (yet).

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        1. I think that weight is what was listed when they signed him two years ago.
          Not sure he is still that light.
          I remember Maikel Franco…he was 180 up until he arrived in Philadelphia…then he was 205.

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  18. Erik Miller is having a very good year as strictly a reliever in AAA. Too many walks but huge K numbers. Wouldn’t mind seeing him coming out of the pen for the Phillies.

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    1. Yes. It’s amazing how people keep on bringing up past trades. If you want to keep all your prospects, you’ll never be able to make any trades.

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      1. Has 32 walks in 38 innings. Just what they need coming out of the pen. Probably why he’s still in AAA for SF.

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        1. Exactly..one of the worst things a reliever can do when he comes into a game…start walking the first few batters….doom.

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  20. I’ll take my chances with Miller over Marte. Seen enough of that guy. Apparently so have the Phillies. Lefties get priority anyway when it comes to evaluating prospects.

    Miller is the kind of guy everyone here screamed about drafting. Especially V1.
    Big arm over command. So that is what you get and you take your chances.

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  22. Of course. I like keeping track of former Phillies prospects. Brown, Miller, Mead, Sanchez and others. Also like to keep track of unsigned Phillies draft picks although these days there aren’t many.

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      1. Been following the Phillies minor leagues since the 1960’s from the Sporting News. Watched Greg Luzinski at Reading in 1970. So I knew who Mead was. Go shove it.

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  23. Jim, can pull this one for next time:

    I haven’t seen either play live, but it sounds like Orion Kerkering has/will jump ahead of McGarry by the end of next years rankings. Thoughts. Would be very nice to pair both with Sir A & Alvarado next year, but I gotta believe one is traded by this time next year (24 off-season or next years deadline)

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    1. Not sure why you would think that one of them will be traded. Kerkering is a reliever and the Phillies always need those. Even if McGarry fails as a starter, the Phillies will obviously give him a shot as a reliever. The Phillies will only get value for McGarry as a starter, and if he can stick there, why not keep him? Nola is a FA after this season and Wheeler has one more year on his contract. The Phillies need all the pitching that they can get.

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      1. Dombrowski will probably go out and sign a free agent pitcher , if Nola decides to take another club’s offer…the money targetted for Nola will go to some pitcher out there in free agency. I am hoping it is Snell.

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  25. Rincones has 10 HRs at Jersey Shore already. He had 5 at CLW with 1 less game played. Over a 25% K rate and a 10% BB rate. That is not too shabby…

    That’s good enough for 2nd. Wingrove has been there most to their season and has 15

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      1. Agreed. Rincones has good power and plate discipline. He’s a guy who could completely take off next year.

        As for Crawford, at this point, he’s probably our second-best prospect, but certainly no worse than our third. He could literally become the first toolsy first round high school outfield prospect that the Phillies have hit on in the over 30 years since I’ve been following the team.

        On the whole, the system did not take a huge leap forward, but I really like where things are headed. The improvements in the process of drafting and developing prospects are, to my mind, very real. And I like that they stayed the course at the trade deadline.

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        1. I still think a lot about JP Crawford who was an excellent prospect for us for 6 years. He had success at every level basically. Reached AAA at age 22 and had a few problems but all in all he demonstrated he could play in the MLB.

          JP had some maturity issues and then got caught up in some negativity players around him but acquitted himself nicely after the trade. This season he is 3.6 WAR player at age 28.

          So from one Crawford to another a tip of the cap to Justin. I’m sure the rise won’t be linear but I can imagine him being a solid contributor around age 24-25.

          Sustained success in the MLB is incumbent on talent existing at every level of the system.

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          1. I attended a Mariners game recently, as I’ve previously mentioned. JP was at short and I was struck not just by how well he played SS, but how wildly popular he is with their fans. Chants of “JP, JP” whenever he did anything.

            The Phillies COMPLETELY mishandled him, from Mac’s “Freddy wants to play every day,” to blaming a kid for the team’s cultural issues.

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            1. Spilt-milk now with JP ….new management and organizational personnel have been in place now for a few years…hopefully those things that revolved around JP are rarity in the future.

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  26. Additionally some players in every organization may never find success with the club that drafted them but it does beg the question “what is our process for helping these young men attain their maximum potential”

    When you flip a 24 y/o #1 pick for a rental and he goes on to OPS 827 with 12 HRs in 257 PAs don’t you ask yourself what you missed. SSS or not…

    Maybe Middleton is or has done this. As a business person if I can pay a million for 827 OPS or 20 Million for the same or less production I think I’m choosing the former not the latter.

    Forgetting for a sec the human or personality side and just assuming all things are similar if not equal there.

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    1. Every team has this, not just the Philies. When you trade/give players away, sometimes they have more success elsewhere. That’s just the way it goes.

      Examples:

      A’s releasing Max Muncy
      Orioles AND Mets releasing Justin Turner
      Dodgers exposed Shane Victorino TWICE in the rule 5 draft
      Blue Jays traded Jayson Werth to the Dodgers, who then released him years later

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      1. I agree that every team has this but you’re going way back on these. None of those instances have the FO in place today that made those moves.

        Doubt you’d see this from the Modern Dodgers. Doubt you’ll see it from the Braves, Stros, Rays and soon the Orioles.

        And when any of those clubs in modern history have decided to part ways with a prospect the return value is usually exceptional.

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        1. The jury is still out on Christian Pache, but the Braves and A’s traded him away. Dodgers letting Cody Bellinger walk and he has bounced back big for the Cubs.

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          1. That was an interesting trade. On the service it appeared the Braves gave up quite a bit for 2 years control of Olson who they quickly extended at a great price.

            Even more so that they did this in the face of letting Freddie walk in FA. Heck I’d take either player right now at their current costs.

            I don’t think you can count Bellinger he wasn’t traded. He was a FA they let walk without a QO. A calculated risk for sure that worked out well for Bellinger.

            That said the Dodgers have the 2nd best record in the NL and lead their division by a wide margin. So again they don’t miss a beat.

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        2. DMAR…Aug 2016…. Andrew Freidman traded with the Astros Stros acquired a then relatively unknown Cuban “IF/OF” by the name of Yordan Alvarez from the Dodgers in exchange for Josh Fields. It was a minor deadline deal then that has since had franchise-altering ramifications. The trade was rather unheralded at the time.

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          1. I put the Stros in a category of best run franchises in MLB so not surprised they were able to get one past Friedman.

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        3. I also found the Astros trading Josh Hader (along with Domingo Santana and others) to the Brewers for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers back in 2015.

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          1. I also found the Astros have made six straight postseason appearances, reaching the ALCS all six times, the World Series four times and winning the title twice, including in 2022

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            1. Then perhaps you should change teams.

              You doubted that those teams made questionable deals and I tried my best to find them. I did not say that the Astros were not a good franchise. All I said that was that all teams made questionable deals. Absolutely no team is going to get it right all the time. That MM deal was fair. If MM has a long career for the Angels, good for him. But his time in Philadelphia was over. Same with Spencer Howard, which shockingly, nobody is complaining about. And yes, I was saying that sarcastically. It’s easy to be right when we’re talking hindsight.

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            2. LOL.
              Moral of the story…all teams screw up….just try to be the team that does it the least amount of times.

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    2. Maybe you look at the .685 OPS that player has posted since July 1st and think that the people you recently hired to run the minor leagues were correct in their long-term evaluation.

      I hope M. Moniak has a successful major league career because he seems to be a good guy who took too much grief for being the 1-1 pick. But his numbers still show that he needs to strike out less and walk more. Until that happens, his .800 ops is not sustainable long-term.

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      1. That’s a good point and we have the years ahead to continue the discussion.

        It’s not that I don’t think the trade of MM was uncalled for its the return value I question.

        I’m watching the teams in recent history. Its my contention and maybe I’m wrong but a number of the franchises who are consistently at the top of their divisions don’t make moves like that for rentals.

        Especially not marginal rentals.

        Its just my opinion but its where our process is broken or where Dombrowski (I assume) is not up with the times.

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        1. I agree with you on Moniak. He did have some bad luck getting hurt a day or two before the season after he had a wonderful Spring. After he came back he was yo-yoed around like he had been the two seasons before. I don’t think he could have reached his potential here, and I’m certainly not anointing him an all star, but I felt the return for him was pretty meager. I wish him all the best, I just think the Phillies could have gotten more

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      2. I will always pull for MM, but August has been especially tough for him. 45 official at bats/1 base on balls/22 strikeouts. Plus, the Angels have given him limited opportunities against LH pitching, and his year-to-date numbers suggest he has been over matched against lefties so far: BA .119/ OBP .159/slugging .143 /OPS .302.

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  27. Romus – I like lefties and I do like Snell but he throws sooooo many pitches. He is basically a 5 inning pitcher. I just don’t see him in red pin stripes.

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    1. But ciada….he sees himself in red-pinstripes with rambunctious, rabid and
      robustious fans cheering him on , on each pitch he throws in an October game!

      Like

  28. Players come and go. Managers come and go. GMs come and go but one thing that stays consistent (generally speaking) is the owner.

    From what I know and have read of JM he seems like a really decent human being (you never really know these people) who wants to bring a championship back to Philly.

    ….he took over as managing partner in what 2015. He’s made some very questionable hires and then allowed some very questionable hires under his watch.

    I’m just saying aside from last season or 7 years into his tenure things are still very questionable.

    Like

  29. DMAR

    In judging Middleton you quickly brush aside last year’s remarkable achievements as if it were meaningless and uncharacteristic. C’mon, give the man a break!

    Middleton has done far more to improve this franchise than all of his immediate predecessors [Carpenter, Giles, Montgomery] combined. And as a diehard Phillies fan since 1950, I can appreciate better than most what a pivotal role JM has played on improving the Phillies “brand”, which is among the very best in today’s MLB.

    Like

    1. thank the lord for John Middleton … I’ve been waiting a long time for such an owner. It’s between him & Snider as my favorite owner . Deep pockets and they want to win just as bad. I’d give the edge to JM since his approach is much better 🙂

      Like

    1. Interesting…..Crawford ‘s promotion was well deserved amd very onvious……Rincon’s metrics do not initially jump out at you. But he has some pop and his peripherals of 18% K rate and 17% BB rate are excellent…and a high OBP with a very modest BABIP of .261
      He could be a prospect that may move up the carts rather fast.

      Like

      2. Yes. His walk rate is exceptional. And he may be a really good defender. He also steals bases. Ran a 6.7 60 yrd dash in high school. Which is at least plus speed. Maybe more.

        Like

  31. An absolutely disastrous start for McGarry tonight:

    35 pitches (7 strikes!!!), 6 walks, 1 hbp, 7 earned runs, he didn’t register an out.

    I’m speechless at this line. His first start for Lehigh was bad, but this was an all timer. Not sure what the Phillies will do here. I would put him on the development list and try to figure out whether now is the time to convert him to reliever.

    Like

  33. I don’t question Dave Dombrowski often (giving up Ben Brown for David Robertson was probably the last time I did), but I wish he had used Bailey Falter for two months of Jordan Hicks instead of 5.5 years of Rodolfo Castro (who BTW is out of options after this season).

    Like

      1. Did you see what Toronto gave up for Hicks?
        Bailey Falter held twice the trade value of Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein (combined).

        Like

        1. Based on what? This claim has zero evidence supporting it. I saw no reports of teams contacting the Phillies asking for Falter so how exactly do we determine his great value? And how do we know it was twice what Toronto gave up?

          Like

          1. I’m not telling you Falter has “great value”. I’m just telling you Falter holds more value than Robberse and Kloffenstein. Do you know anything about Robberse and Kloffenstein?

            Like

            1. Nope. Robberse was Toronto’s 6 rated prospect but that’s it. I do know Bailey Falter and he would be no one’s 6th rated prospect.

              But I’m not the person claiming he would get Hicks in a trade so what evidence is there that Falter would have made that trade happen if DD had just made the offer?

              Like

            3. There are places to go to help you better understand players’ value. Google it if you’re interested.

              Like

            4. Lol. Just provide your link if it’s that easy. Sounds like you got me cold.. Would love to see that universal player value chart. I would think that professional baseball GMs and scout’s would be excited about something that valuable. Don’t keep it a secret.

              Like

            6. The only reason why Hicks was traded was because he wanted to get paid and St. Louis didn’t want to give him the money. Obviously, Hicks wasn’t going to get the QO so he got traded.

              Like

      2. What exactly is the usefulness of such a site? How are these player values decided? Is it just the site owners opinion? Even so the opinion that would matter in such a case is what Michael Girsch’s (StL GM) opinion of Falter’s value.

        Like

  34. This team is exasperating! They feast on the mediocre pitches and can’t do squat against good pitching. They have scored 2 runs in the last 3 games and face Gausman tomorrow. As Billy Joel wrote and sang: Rockin’ roller cola wars I CAN’T TAKE IT ANY MORE.

    Like

  37. Poor Griff…something is amiss right now.
    Has thrown less than 60 innings this season…only 87 last season as his tops.
    25 age season next year.
    Maybe just let him do the BP route….and utilize just his best three pitch mix

    Like

    1. Poor Griff? Poor us! We were counting on him or Abel to fill a void in the rotation in the near future without having to spend another $100 million.

      Especially now with Painter on a shelf for a couple of years.

      Like

      1. No, I feel bad from him. He had a serious Steve Blass/Rick Ankiel outing. I am not even sure what the organization does now. If I were them, I would shut him down for a week and then have him work a couple of innings in middle relief and see if that helps. They need to get him to a sports psychologist – and soon. Seriously. This is very sad because I saw him pitch a brilliant outing with no walks about a month ago – the ability is there.

        Like

        2. Agree……it may all originate from above his shoulders.
          He can be great one outing…then completely off the cliff the next.

          Like

          1. Makes you wonder if they moved him up to AAA to try to get through to him about needing to make some changes he is resisting. He was walking a ton of guys in AA but was mostly getting away with it without giving up a lot of runs.

            His 2 starts in AAA have been a complete disaster both from throwing strikes but also in giving up runs, getting hit around, etc. No other reason I see as to why they promoted him based on how he was pitching in Reading.

            Like

            1. About Griff McGarry … his “stuff” is/has always been electric. But his relationship with the K-zone has always been his kryptonite. This dates back to his days in college. At UVA, he was removed from the rotation midway thru his senior season for control issues only to return later in the year, and lead the Cavaliers to the College WS.

              McGarry in college … 12.5 K/9, 8.8 BB/9
              McGarry as a pro …… 13.3 K/9, 5.9 BB/9

              Not sure what the Phillies plan to do with Griff, but that looks like a reliever to me. That’s why I felt he had a pretty good chance to be traded at the deadline.

              Like

  38. Ben Brown heard a lot about him on here, Crazy his era is 481 yet he has pitch 85 innings with 65 hits, great numbers until i looked at his walks 40. So many of these guys in our system walk a lot of guys, LHV last night 10 walks in 3 innings, Mc Garry 6 walks then 4 by relief pitcher, Crazy, Hope its okay to put someone from another team in this discussion, I know eagley is moderator for jim,

    Like

    1. It’s not crazy that we have guys who struggle with control/command – it’s actually predictable. The organization made a decision a few years ago to prioritize good arms and to work to develop potentially talented pitchers with control issues. As a general rule, it’s a pretty decent strategy. As it was, the organization was drafting a lot of guys like Connor Seabold or Cole Irvin – workaday pitchers with mediocre velocity and very little upside, especially now that most pitchers and especially righties (even starters) have to throw 95 MPH to have virtually any success. Sure, there’s always the unicorn soft tosser who excels (Bryce Elder – it’s always the Braves, eh?), but you don’t build an organization hoping you find several unicorns. You find guys with talent and try to develop them. A lot won’t work out, but some will.

      Like

    2. rocco…..drafting hi-velo young arms come with inherit risks…..poor control and high TJ occurrences….but if a pitcher can survive/overcome those two hurdles, then you have something special.
      As for the odds of ace success…It is a roll of the dice.

      Like

  39. Phillies ranked 23rd best farm system at midseason: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2023-midseason-system-rankings

    23. Philadelphia Phillies
    2023 preseason rank: 21
    2022 midseason rank: 25
    2022 preseason rank: 26
    2021 midseason rank: 27

    Top 100 prospects: Andrew Painter, RHP (No. 29); Mick Abel (No. 49); Justin Crawford, OF (No. 82); Aidan Miller, 3B (No. 96)

    On the surface, there are some great additions here, with two new Top 100 guys in Crawford — their first-rounder in 2022 — and Miller, their second straight high school hitter first-round pick. That comes on the heels of two straight high school arms, but they come with some questions now due to Painter’s Tommy John surgery and Abel’s command issues. There are some exciting young players at lower levels, and if they take steps forward, the Phillies could make a nice leap up this list.

    Like

    1. At first glance, I thought it was a little low but Painter won’t be back until 2025 and Abel is still walking too many guys. So I’m ok with this ranking.

      Like

      1. If you think about it:
        – Our #1 prospect just had TJ surgery and won’t pitch again until 2025
        – Our #2 prospect has serious command issues
        – Our #3 prospect has a really high ceiling but is in A ball
        – Our #4 prospect is in rookie ball
        – Our #5 prospect is in the majors and seems like an elite defender with a question still on his bat.
        – Our #6 prospect has massive command issues
        – and then it is a bunch of lottery tickets.

        As the writeup said, if those guys show progress, then we can move up.

        Like

  40. Went to Iron Pigs last night. Positive comments first. Phillie Phanatic as entertaining as ever. Alvarado pitched 1 inning. Very effective, hit 97 a few times. Airport is a block away, hopefully he boarded a flight to join team in Toronto.

    Now the bad. Griff McGarry started and as of this morning is still trying to find his first out. First 7 batters -6 walks and HBP. At one point he walked consecutive batters on 4 pitches and had something like 35 pitches, and 5 strikes. Never have I seen 7 runs score with no hits and no outs. Beyond Brutal.

    Like

  41. Yeah, Griff may have an arm that God himself has blessed, but it’s useless to a MLB team if you can’t occasionally display command of the strike zone. His line last night is turning into a national story, not in a good way.

    Like

  42. Not sure why Sang was promoted over Simmons. Kendall is 23 OPSing 964 Sang is 22 and was OPSing 796

    I’m happy for him of course

    Like

  43. Sang plays every day, Simmons’ entire pro baseball career has seen him miss way too many games with injuries.

    Like

      1. Abel is 21 at AA. This is his 3rd full season in the minors. In the old days, he would likely still be at high-A. There’s still hope for him and he could easily turn it around if something clicks for him.

        McGarry’s time as a starter is running out I think. He’s already 24 and he’s had 2 of the worst starts I’ve seen at Lehigh. It’s less likely that he’ll be a viable starter. It’ll be interesting to see what happens at ST next season, whether the Phillies will let him remain a starter.

        Like

        1. College drafted starting arms , at McGarry’s, age…are usually making their MLB debut right about now.
          Just hope eventually he adjusts and turns into another 5th round find.

          Like

  45. I have never understood the logic of “he can’t throw strikes as a starter so let’s move him to a relief role.” Seriously can you share examples of who that worked?

    There are many reasons to convert a starter to a RP.
    – Not enough quality pitch types.
    – Doesn’t have arm stamina.
    – has average velo as a starter but could be electric as a 1 inning reliever.

    But I don’t get “he can’t command his pitches” as a logical reason to move a kid to the BP. Maybe I am wrong. Would love to see examples.

    I am not concerned about Abel. He is still very young. He has some time to figure it out. The stuff is electric.

    McGarry has time too. I know that he is 24 but he still has a few years left before he has to go on the 40 man.

    Like

    1. Agree V1. Only situation where moving a guy who can’t throw strikes to the pen is if they are unable to command a 3rd pitch and moving to the pen allows them to scrap it and become a 2-pitch reliever.

      For a guy who can’t throw strike with any of his pitches, that’s not going to help.

      Like

      1. I agree that if you can’t throw strikes, you’re going to struggle no matter your role. That said, however, if a pitcher can throw harder and focus on throwing fewer pitches, I think command becomes a little less of an issue in the bullpen. In other words, if your velocity in the pen goes from 96 to 99, the thinking is that you don’t need to be as precise with a 99 MPH FB as you do with a 96 MPH FB. But you do still need to throw strikes.

        My concern right now is less with McGarry’s command and control history and much more with the psychology of what happened. It’s one thing to walk 4 or 5 batters per 9 innings and hope you can throw more strikes to get that down to perhaps 3 batters walked per 9. It’s another altogether to walk 6 guys without getting an out and experiencing a true melt down after having had a horrible start the game before. If he doesn’t correct this quickly he may never recover. I hate to say that, but guys like Rick Ankiel and Steve Blass were essentially done once they got the yips. I hope to God that doesn’t happen to McGarry, but he’s in a very precarious spot right now – not many guys can bounce back from this type of melt down. I hate to say it, because McGarry is VERY talented – but it’s true.

        Like

    2. The feeling here is that if his velocity bumps up to 97-99 in the bullpen, he’ll be able to get away with mistakes in the zone.

      We’re all guessing here. We don’t know which pitches are causing the walks, we don’t know if it’s mental, etc. All we know is something has to change, because what he’s doing right now is definitely not working.

      Like

    3. Because you’ll blow your bullpen out by keeping a starter who can’t throw strikes in your rotation.

      Like

      1. That’s an argument that he isn’t a starter. But not an explanation why he would magically become a good reliever. My point is if his command stinks he can’t be a reliever either.

        Like

  46. One thing I will observe. And it could be coincidence, or it could be a real thing. Virtually none of our strong-armed pitchers – both relievers and starters – progressed at AA this year. In fact, most of the were worse (Abel and Baker regressed this year and McGarry was roughly the same) and, in many cases, much worse. It might or might not be the pitching coach’s fault, but I think you need to find out what happened and, if in doubt, replace the AA pitching coach. Hopefully, it’s an isolated issue and not a problem with the team’s overall pitching developmental program (that would be bad and disturbing).

    Like

  47. And another thing . . .

    One thing the Phillies have historically done a horrible job at and have done a great (and I mean, really great) job at this year is finding somewhat older prospects who perhaps need a new environment or second chance. We’ve seen it in the big leagues with Cave and Wilson and, particularly, Pache. The team did a great job getting these guys in the organization. Let me add a name to that list – one that nobody is mentioning. Oliver Dunn is 25 (he’s not young, but he’s still a prospect) and he has been fantastic at AA this year. He hits for power and average and draws a ton of walks. He may be an older prospect, but we should not ignore him. And, yes, he has played better at Reading than on the road, but he’s actually hit more homers on the road and still has a road OPS of .887. Every year, some guy like Dunn makes it to the big leagues and turns out to be an above average player. Kudos to the scouting department for keying in on these players. Good teams (like the Dodgers with Max Muncy) always find these guys.

    Like

    1. And, by the way, the entire industry ignores these slightly older prospects and won’t rank them. Dunn is not, surprisingly, ranked in the Phillies top 30 prospects, although to my mind, he is definitely in the top 30 and probably top 20 or so. Viars is the 26th ranked prospect. Is Viars, who has massive hit tool issues, a better prospect than Dunn right now? Hell no!!!

      Like

      1. Age seems to be the determing factor in many cases…..Viars was born in 2003 and Dunn in 1997. Might not be fair, but that is how the national analyst evaluate it sometimes.

        Like

        1. Yup, I get it. And this is the natural reaction to the old school where publications had 24-26 year old prospects ranked really high and a lot of those guys didn’t pan out. But what I’m saying is that the pendulum has swung too far the other way. Right now, in my view, Dunn is a superior prospect to Viars. You don’t get a lot of middle infielders who hit for power, average and draw walks at the rate he does. And he’s not 30 – he’s 25 (he will turn 26 in September – this is his “age 25” year as a prospect).

          Like

        1. Yes, he’s a late bloomer. To his credit, he was actually very good last year, but the Yankees had apparently already written him off and didn’t give him many ABs. But what great scouting to locate and sign this guy. And, like I said, this happens all the time. There’s no excuse not to look for these guys. Let’s face it – 80 percent of all minor league teams are filler (guys who have virtually no chance to make the majors), even the good ones, so why not take chances like this?

          Like

    2. This is older Rocco: Walling has always had some control and command concerns, but premium stuff from the left side came with that. He touched 100 MPH last spring and sat in the mid-90s during starts. Both his slider and changeup flashed swing-and-miss potential giving Walling three pitches that he could use to rack up whiffs.

      this blurb seems more recent: He’s consistently in the 93-96 MPH range with a tailing fastball that flashes some ride, and there’s some feel for commanding the pitch effectively in the zone

      I’ve also seen some highlights that he was once a really good 2 way player if that means anything.

      Like

      1. ty i only know that he transfer from college his second yr, i think he only pitched 5 innings that year

        Like

  49. For prospects, age matters because it’s an indicator of future SUSTAINED success. So the earlier a prospect gets to the majors, the better. It means that he was able to adjust and thrive in the minors at a young age, usually playing against players older than him. For example, Jackson Holliday ripping up AA at age 19.

    If a prospect gets to the majors at age 25/26, he could still have some success, but it usually doesn’t last long. There will obviously be outliers, but I can’t recall any that has happened recently.

    Like

    1. There are more than you think. Max Muncy, Josh Donaldson (didn’t really play until he was about 26), Adolis Garcia, Jake Cronenworth (26), Edgar Martinez, Randy Arozarena – there are a lot more, but these just pop to mind. The odds of the player sticking improve a lot if the player is either highly athletic, has outstanding plate discipline and/or a solid hit tool. One dimensional sluggers typically fade out more quickly.

      Like

      1. I guess the biggest issue for these late bloomers is finding a team that will give them a shot at the MLB level.

        We found a role for Vierling last season at 25 that he filled nicely . The Tigers have used him in 96 of 120 Games so far this season. He’s been ok 270/324/710 OPS

        So that actually was a really good trade for us Soto I would say has been mostly solid. And we control him through 2025

        Like

      2. It’s an interesting list. Cronenworth is the true comp for late bloomers, he made his debut at age 26. The others made their debuts earlier and broke out years later.

        Cronenworth looks to be coming back to Earth though after 2 great years.

        Like

        2. You can add Davey Lopes to the list – I didn’t get serious MLB ABs until he was 28, but he was very athletic – that helps. And I am only scratching the surface here of the list.

          Like

          1. Catch – how about Jason Werth ? Maybe the best example of this….even Joey Meneses from Nats, a former Phillies farmhand.

            Like

            1. Joey Meneses was 30 when he made his debut, but his defense is so bad, it’s killing his value. He’s replacement level.

              Like

            2. Yup to both – Werth is a great example although his career was really sent off track for a few years with a weird and bad hand injury.

              Like

          2. How about a little irony along those lines of late bloomers…..once the Phillies release Muzziotti from the org this off-season….he could very well sign with another club, be a starting CF for them and be a leader in the league in hitting next season.

            Like

  50. Crawford had a 2 Hit Game last night and Simmons had a Grand Slam Jersey Shore is playing very well as of late.

    Speaking of older prospects we drafted 22 y/o Zach Arnold out of Houston this year. He’s hit the ground running in his SS with 395/489/994 OPS over 48 PAs between FCL and CLW

    15 Hits 3 Doubles 1 Triple and 1 HR! 7 Ks to 6 BBs

    Like

    1. Arnold is off to an amazing start as are some of the guys in the FCL. Things are looking up, SSS notwithstanding.

      And Kendall Simmons might turn into something after all. It would be nice to see if he can hit AA pitching.

      Like

      1. If Simmons can stay healthy for an entire season would be a real plus.
        He seems to frequently get nicked

        Like

  51. Question for Jim: The Phillies have yet to use any recently drafted pitchers in MiLB game action. Do you have any updates on their whereabouts and/or how they look? They were all college/JUCO arms. Only one threw at least 60 innings in school this season.

    Like

    1. Odd…..my neighbor’s son, Ethan Pecko , was drafted by the ‘Stros out of Towson and they got him on the bump Sat , 5 Aug…and then four days later on 9 Aug….just for 3 innings total so far….and he pitched in a summer college league up to the draft. Phillies may have different protocols in place for their college arms.

      Like

  52. Really good article on Crawford: https://theathletic.com/4783030/2023/08/17/justin-crawford-phillies-prospect-jersey-shore/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

    For those who don’t pay for TheAthletic, here is one interesting comment:

    “He must add strength and, with that, hit for more power. But there is a solid base; Crawford has an exceptional hit tool that is rare for his age. It has translated to pro ball.

    No teenager has hit .300 with a Phillies full-season affiliate since Mike Lieberthal batted .302 in 332 plate appearances between Low A and High A in 1991. It’s been a decade since any Phillies farmhand, no matter his age, has hit .330 with at least 300 plate appearances. Willians Astudillo did it in 2014 with Lakewood when it was a Low A affiliate.

    Batting average is not everything, although Crawford is a fast athlete whose current game is dependent on putting the ball in play. He has done that. There are 64 teenagers with at least 300 plate appearances in the minors this season and Crawford ranks sixth among them in OPS. Crawford, who turns 20 in January, is younger than the five players ahead of him.”

    Like

    1. another good comment in the article:

      “His barrel’s in the zone for a long time,” Stassi said. “It’s about learning how to hit first and then start chasing the power. He knows that speed’s his tool. Putting the ball in play is a big deal for him. Getting on the bases and creating a mess, that’s huge for him as well. It’s cool to see a kid that young understand what his skill set is right now.”

      Like

        1. What I’m seeing from Crawford is the pitch recognition and the ability to hit balls out of the zone. Check the video above, that slider was borderline and he still hit it pretty well. And he did it off a lefty.

          Like

          1. great point. nice to see him hit lefties well. Crawford actually hit better off lefties than RHP at Clearwater, which is awesome:
            – vs LHP: 75 ABs .400/.444/.507/.951
            – vs RHP: 201 ABs .323/.382/.468/.850

            Like

          2. It’s a very pretty swing and it looks like a swing that could easily lift some balls.

            I am as big of an advocate for “strong” players as anyone, but there’s a group of players that are wiry and hit for power, like Ted Williams or Mookie Betts or Eric Davis or Ernie Banks or even a young Hank Aaron. It should be fun to watch Crawford – he’s a hell of a prospect. I just can’t get over the fact that it appears that the Phillies have finally hit on a young, toolsy high school outfielder. It doesn’t seem real.

            Like

  53. Kiley McDaniel’s mid-season top 50 Prospects:
    https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/38197232/kiley-mcdaniel-mlb-top-50-prospects-midseason-update-jackson-holliday

    19. Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
    Age: 20 Level: Double-A

    Painter had Tommy John surgery last month after hoping to avoid it most of this season. Until the surgery, he was the top pitching prospect in baseball, and many evaluators think he’ll reclaim that title after Skenes zooms to the big leagues next season.

    41. Mick Abel, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
    Age: 21 Level: Double-A

    Abel’s stuff has progressed as many expected it would when he was the top prep arm in the 2020 draft, but his command hasn’t, so he’ll hang in the middle of the list until that breakthrough.

    Johan Rojas is in the next 30 (so 51-80). No mention of Crawford

    Like

  54. Read the Athletic article, v1, and I am really excited for Crawford. As he gains strength he will add more power. I don’t want him doing anything to change his swing. I believe the power will come, but I don’t want him chasing HRs. Maybe I am paranoid after being so high on Kingery and seeing him flounder after altering his swing, and I think Crawford should just let the natural progression of power grow as he works on adding strength to his legs and core.

    Like

    1. Yes, I wasn’t suggesting that he should change his swing. Rather, I was suggesting his swing would result in a power stroke as he grows older and learns to turn on pitches.

      Like

      1. I wasn’t suggesting you advocated a swing change, catch. I was just expressing my hope that the organization leaves his swing alone. I agree that Crawford looks so good I don’t want to jinx him!

        Like

  55. From the MLB level, all the way down to the A level ball, the Phillies are loaded with outstanding youthful talented OFers.
    With keen interest, over the next 2 or 3 years, I will like to see how all of this shakes out.

    Like

    1. Possible OF timeline

      Now: Marsh, Pache, Rojas (all to at least 2028)

      2025: Crawford
      2026: Rincones, Jr, Boyd
      2027: Heredia
      2028: Walton, Saltiban

      I intentionally omitted Muzzioti, CDLC, and Ethan WIlson.

      Obviously all of them are not going to make it. Some of them might be traded. But the Phillies have young talent now and young talent in the pipeline. The Phillies have at least 1 year to see who is legit in the majors before Crawford forces his way onto the roster.

      At the minimum, this should allow the Phillies to not spend FA money on OFs for the near future.

      Like

      2. There is a a bunch of them for sure……even Carlos DLC could swing back out there…he was outstanding in the OF in the AFL the few games they let him play out there . And even Ethan Wilson looks to be one who could surprise in one corner next year at LHV.
        Muzziotti and Jhailyn Ortiz look like this year is their last in the Philly org.
        You are correct….some will be traded. It is probably something that Dombrowski already has in the back of his mind.

        Like

        1. Muzzioti has some trade value. Ortiz has none. I expect Muz to be traded after his terrific season for a relief pitcher

          Like

          1. I may be wrong on this but come Nov, 5 days after the World Series is completed, he is Rule 55….he is gone as a free agent…Phillies will not have any of his rights…unless he is added back onto the 40, which is highly unlikely.
            I can see him hooking on with three possible teams that he may have better opportunities with…As, Royals or Rockies.

            Like

            2. It would have been awesome if Muzziotti landed us Lorenzen instead of Lee but maybe nobody wanted Muzzy because he doesn’t have trade value.

              And maybe his value was low because he will require a 40 spot.

              All very strange to me because an excellent fielding CF putting up 325/384/830 in AAA at just 24 seems attractive enough to me.

              Like

            3. @DMAR, there’s plenty of reasons why Muzziotti is not garnering trade interest: he’s already 24, he’s not the biggest guy, including this year, his career minor league OPS is .709. But we’re so focused on the Phillies that we don’t realize that other teams have players similar to Muzziotti. So why trade for ours when they have their own?

              Like

          2. Yeah DMAR…..requiring a payer to be placed on the 40 in a trade can be a detractor….those spots are like gold to GMs.
            Lee has maybe two more years before he has to be added by the Tigers.

            Like

          3. Murray, By my calculations and understanding of baseball’s contract rules, Muzziotti was signed by the Red Sox on July 2, 2015, and by the Phillies on July 1, 2016 after MLB voided a bunch of Red Sox minor league signings due to signing violations. Even if we ignore his original signing date and toss out the cancelled 2020 season, Muzziotti will have completed 7 seasons at the end of this season and will have reached minor league free agency by the time we reach the off season, unless of course they retain him on the 40-man roster, which I agree is unlikely.

            Like

            1. There’s no reason for any team to trade for him and there’s no reason for the Phillies to retain him (they are three deep already in center with Marsh, Rojas and Pache. That said, it sure looks like Muzziotti is going to get some shot in the majors and he could end up being a perfectly decent major league player. If this were 2021, we would be pretty excited about him and frankly, he’d already be in the majors.

              Like

  56. I had read on twitter that AAA is where they are testing the automatic strike zone, which apparently is pretty small. Matt Winkelman noted that there are only a fraction of starting pitchers this year in AAA with an ERA <4.00, which is in stark contrast to previous seasons (meanwhile batting stats are through the roof). All of this to say, I definitely expected McGarry's control problems to get uglier, although definitely to this extent.

    Like

    1. Yes, it’s a tight zone, the league knows it, but they are sticking with it through the end of the month. In the game where McGarry had problems with control, the tighter zone was not the problem. The next pitcher, Schulze was on the fringes of a more normal zone but those pitches were strikes with the current zone. Alvarado was able to weather the zone by placing his pitches inside the box at velocity with movement that the other team’s batters couldn’t handle.

      Like

  57. Is A.Miller hurt? Saw he left a game earlier in the week and hasn’t played since. Marsh as DH was 2-3 with 2 rbi and 3 stolen bases. What happens when he and Pache return?

    Like

    1. I was thinking the same thing about Miller.

      Marsh and Pache coming back is a good problem to have. I think Wilson and Rojas are going down, with Rojas coming back up in September.

      Like

      1. I’m afraid that Rojas is destined to return to AAA. I don’t see any way the Phillies keep him with Marsh and Pache returning. I’m not in favor of that move but it seems most likely.

        One thing I would like to point out is that once players make it to the big leagues, former potential, ceilings, rankings, and all that other BS that we love to tag prospects with means absolutely nothing. That’s not an opinion open to discussion. I got it from an impeccable source. In fact, teams don’t care about all those rankings.

        Like

        1. All the pipeline rankings and other publication rankings are solely for public consumption.I have no doubt that teams have their own criteria for promotions and rankings i.e. who they want to keep.

          That said, after a prospect gets promoted and then gets sent back down, do the Phillies realize that certain prospects are not part of their plans? For example, Muzziotti and Marchan haven’t been back up for a while. Can we infer that the Phillies don’t value them highly or is it just a lack of opportunity for then to be called back?

          Like

          1. Okay, in Marchan’s case, Girardi took a liking to him during ST. Marchan had passed another catcher on the depth chart and performed well as a backup when Knapp (?) was injured. He returned to the minors because he was too young to be spending so much time on the bench with the Phillies at that stage of his career. Then he ran into a string of injuries and O’Hoppe finally passed him on the depth chart and the Phillies started signing FA catchers in subsequent offseasons. As long as Realmuto is here, the backup will be lucky to play once a week. Stubbs is perfect for that assignment, but I think this will be his last season with the team. Marchan will likely finally return to the bigs next season. That’s spec on my part but I think it’s possible.

            Muzziotti just hasn’t been able to stay healthy. I believe he was their fall back option when Moniak suffered his hand injury in 2022. Muzziotti had missed 2020 like most minor leaguers then had visa issues and missed most of 2021. Then, he had some injuries last season. Personally, I think Muzziotti would have been an acceptable callup in place of Rojas. Probably would have been if “handedness” didn’t matter. But, because of his history there wasn’t enough of a track record when the Phillies went out and got Marsh and then Pache.

            None of this means the Phillies don’t value them. Although I misspoke somewhere when I stated DD doesn’t trust prospects. It is more accurate to say that he prefers veterans with a track record of experience that he can see. Prospects are unknowns. Hall for instance only got a chance because DD saw him during ST when the 2022 season started late due to the lockout. DD saw Hall performing well at the Complex and brought him up that summer when there was an opening.

            Unfortunately, these guys have little or no value in trades except as part of a package. Their contract status is such that they are more likely to be minor league free agents than trade pieces. I think.

            Like

  58. Someone mentioned yesterday, Griff probably needs to be placed on the Dev. List….well the Phillies took the advice.

    Like

    1. Good for them and good for Griff. I heard Ricky Bo talk about his experience the other night. He was pitching great at AA got promoted to AAA was horrible so they sent him back to AA he regained his form and his next call up was straight to the MLB.

      Like

    2. I think that’s a great idea – it shows they understand this man has a serious issue (most likely psychological) and, rather than ignore it, they are attacking it and not letting it go on too long. This is exactly what they needed to do. Like I said, McGarry likely could use the help of a sports psychologist and the sooner the better.

      Like

      1. Implying a person has a psychological problem is way out of line. Try thinking before typing. You’re a lawyer, aren’t you? You ought to know better than to say something like that.

        Like

        1. I was consistently on here a couple of years ago stating my opinion that Alec Bohm’s troubles at the time were the result of a “crisis in confidence”. I think Trea Turner even went thru the same thing a few weeks ago. Those guys were thinking (negatively) too much instead of playing instinctively. Both Bohm and Turner were doing things on the field that was out of the norm for them.
          Griff McGarry’s situation is different IMO. Finding the K-zone has been an ongoing struggle for him since (at least) his days at UVA. His is more a mechanical thing that needs to be worked out that a mental hurdle he needs to get over.

          Like

      1. It’s a minor league only designation usually used so the player can work on some issues. But in general, it could be used for almost any reason, including giving the player a break.

        Like

        1. Some Development List regulations:
          “As part of his development and/or conditioning, a player on the Development List can remain with his minor league club and take batting practice, fielding practice, throw bullpen side sessions, and/or serve as a bullpen catcher, batting practice pitcher, or base coach.
          A player on Optional Assignment from an MLB Reserve List (40-man roster) can be placed onto the Development List of the minor league affiliate to which he has been optioned, but only with consent of the player.
          A player cannot be placed on the Development List for the purpose of injury rehabilitation or disciplinary action.
          A player can be placed on the Development List only during his minor league club’s regular season, the player must remain on the Development List for at least seven days, and the player must be reinstated from the Developmental List no later than the day after the conclusion of his minor league club’s season. If a player is injured while on the Development List, the player must be transferred to a 7-day IL or 60-day IL. Days spent on the Development List prior to the injury count toward the minimum number of days the player must spend on the IL before he is eligible to be reinstated.”

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  60. I can’t wait to see how Tait does stateside next year. He just keeps hitting. He’s 16!
    Quite a good year for Dunn quietly.
    I feel bad for Kotowski not getting promoted. He’s older and probably not a prospect but he’s hit a bunch of homers and deserves to move up.

    Like

  61. Hinkie, yes, I’ve seen the new guys at the Complex. I’ve watched their fielding drills, watched bullpens (Mattingly has granted permission for me and another writer to watch bullpens on the normally inaccessible 7-mounds, now referred to as the 7-pack), and live BPs. I saw Dillard throw a bullpen on Roberts today. Live arm. Good velocity with a little variance in his command. A downpour canceled the live BPs for Beckel and three other pitchers.

    Now for a more important comment.

    Like

  62. Hinkie, you implied that Rickardo Perez was suspended for PEDs in an earlier post near the top. That is not true and not the type of thing that should be implied without some sort of evidence backing it up.

    Reaching that opinion was flawed because when a player is suspended for PEDs or any drugs, he is suspended by the league and placed on the Restricted List. Perez was suspended by the team for reasons I know but am not going to get into.

    Being on the RL does not necessarily mean that a player was caught using PEDs or drugs. There are other reasons for placing a player on the RL. The Phillies have 4 players on the RL as of today, 2 stateside and 2 in the DSL. I don’t know about the 2 in the DSL, but the 2 stateside players (Cornelius and McKenna) were NOT placed on the RL for any sort of drug reason. However, I’m not going to go into the reasons why.

    In the past, some players were placed there because they voluntarily retired and this is a way to keep control of the player. We had a player walk out after ST when he didn’t like his assignment. He was on the RL until he returned. These are just two examples I can remember from the past.

    Please be careful what you imply in future comments. Thank you.

    Like

  63. Richard Christie (nee Pretty Ricky), you called another commenter a liar. Do that again or attack another commenter and you will be banned.

    NL replied, “Go shove it”. Normally I would not like that response but I think you earned it. Since he was traded, Mead has been a hot topic here among the Monday morning quarterbacks who visit. Not so much this year as Mead has been hurt and Sanchez has blossomed.

    So, not only were you rude, you were wrong.

    Like

  64. If any of you are offended by my comments, tough. I mean sorry. Or do I? I had a thing and was put on steroids for a period. I’m in the middle of the progression and the steroids kinda make me a lot more aggressive in my thinking and speech. I purposely stayed away from the comments section earlier to avoid saying things I may or may not regret. But, I get approached at the Complex about some of the stupid things that are said here. I sometimes wear a tee shirt that says “I’ll try being nicer if you’ll try being smarter”. Got it as a joke and wear it to the Complex because it’s Phillies’ red.

    It applies here. Be smarter so I don’t have to deal with complaints about your comments.

    Like

    1. I’m curious, who’s asking about the comments made here? The relatives of the players? I don’t think it’s Phillies management, I don’t think they would care that much about what’s being said here. And I think worse stuff has been said on other sites against management.

      Like

      1. It’s really none of your business. I’m catching feedback because of the comments. I passed that along to you guys. Nuf said. But, I don’t reach out to families like I used to so that we don’t have a situation here like in the past.

        Like

  66. Jim- at the complex and through your contacts do you ever hear of other players in the league wanting to play with the Phillies ? Not asking for specifics just whether that even exists ?

    Like

  67. Jeez Jim. Love the site and reading it. Commenters as a whole are friendly and informative here. Think you’re overreacting. Love your insight but I think you’re smart enough to know when people approach you at the complex over a comment said here, they know it’s not your opinion. Everything on Twitter isn’t Elons opinion. Hope this doesn’t offend you.

    Like

  68. I like following former Phillies farmhands, so…
    Ben Brown-went on the IL 8/2. I was surprised to see this as I hadn’t heard anything.
    Logan O’Hoppe-back with the Angels after a long rehab.
    Jadiel Sanchez-having a very good year at High A for the Angels. Would be something if he turns out to be the major trade piece for the Angels over Moniak. Still a long way to go.
    Sixto Sanchez-is he done? Hasn’t pitched since 2019. Still recovering from shoulder surgery.
    Logan Cerny-showing power but his K rate is insane.
    Carson Ragsdale-had insane numbers for SF at High A in 2021 but has hardly pitched since. Don’t know the problem but I didn’t like that trade when it happened.
    Jamari Baylor-had a good year in A ball but not so good in High A.
    Ethan Lindow- was a favorite of mine but having a pedestrian year in AA. Thought he would be a major league pitcher but not looking good right now.
    Kyle Glogoski-having a terrible year in AA. Showed promise with the Phillies before his injury.
    Michael Prosecky-never signed with the Phillies in 2019. Haveing a lights out year in A ball for Colorado as a starter. Possibly one that got away.

    Like

    1. Michael Prosecky was drafted in the 35th round by the Phillies in 2019. I wouldn’t call him one that got away. That’s like saying the Blue Jays let Aaron Nola get away when they drafted him in the 22nd round back in 2011. My buddy, the Jays fan, is not bitter about that. Players drafted after the 20th round usually are either not good enough or super raw or have solid commitments to go to college.

      Like

      1. Moniak has’t walked. If your walk rate isn’t around at least 6 percent or so, you’re chances of being a good major leaguer are very low. He’s going to have to improve his plate discipline at least a little bit to have a legitimate big league career. Otherwise, he does have some tools.

        Like

        1. With the Angels he started hitting and went leadoff, then to cleanup, then descended down the order to the bench. He was platooning, so this is just against RHP.

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  69. Correction on Sixto. He last pitched in 2020 for Miami and did well in limited appearances and pitched well against the Phillies if I remember correctly. I guess you don’t give up on an arm like that.

    Like

  70. Sixth pitched in the 2020 playoffs and had a terrific start vs the Braves, could be wrong on the team. He had some great games in the 2020 shortened season and was very highly thought of nationally going into 2021 and 2022. But injuries have kept him off the field for multiple years now.

    Like

  71. ESPN farm system ranking:

    19. Philadelphia Phillies: $191 million

    There’s a hope that Andrew Painter returns from Tommy John surgery next season, Mick Abel’s command makes the expected jump, Griff McGarry joins the big league staff and Johan Rojas sticks in the majors. It probably won’t all work out like that over the next 12 months, but there is a tier of immediate help, with quite a gap behind it. Justin Crawford, Aidan Miller, Starlyn Caba and William Bergolla have the potential to headline that next wave as upside position players, but they’re a ways off.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/38211941/top-30-mlb-farm-systems-prospects-list-2023-kiley-mcdaniel

    Like

    1. Next year may see 17-year old Eduardo Tait join that list of ESPN prospects.
      I hope the Phillies bring him stateside.

      Like

    2. I want to see him become a starter next season. He’s 20, but he’s already filled out at 6’3, 220lbs. As a comparison, Zack Wheeler is 6’4″, 195lbs.

      Like

  73. CF for Giants, Meckler, is a real success story. As a freshman in HS he was 4’10” & 75 lbs. He grew a foot in HS, got a baseball guy to talk the coach to take him onto Oregon State team as college freshman, went 1-10 for the year. Coach tried to talk him into transferring but he said he would show him why he should keep him.
    Worked hard in off season, became an 8th round draft pick for SF last year. Rookie league and A last year. A+, AA & AAA this year and then promoted to big league.

    Like

  74. Romus’s excitement over Tait got me thinking, who are some “lottery ticket” prospects that have panned out over the years? By “lottery ticket” I mean a low draft pick or cheap international FA signing that became a big impact guy.
    – Carlos Carrasco is by far the biggest impact player that was a cheap FA signing. He has had a phenomenal career.
    – Chooch was a cheap FA signing and had a very productive career. Not a star by any means but a good player
    – Ranger was a cheap FA signing and is a very productive MLB starter.
    – O’Hoppe and Rojas have potential but still so little MLB experience

    Going back to 2000 that’s basically it. Did I miss anyone?

    Anyone else who has made a significant MLB impact was a high draft pick, a rule 5 signing, a FA or a trade.

    Kinda crazy when you think about the size of the pool of players that covers. That’s not to say Tait can’t break that mold.

    Like

    1. Would you consider Freddy Galvis and/or Cesar H. as success stories….they were low budget signees together in 2006..both less than $100K.

      Like

      1. Yes. Definitely. Cesar had a career WAR of 14+ and Freddy of 11+. Those are productive MLB careers. Role players. But still productive.

        Like

        1. I thought about Hector. I intentionally didn’t include relievers, but I guess you could include them. ok, let’s add Hector to that list too

          Like

      1. Yes. We have traded a lot of prospects for stats. We got Halladay and Lee and Oswalt for prospects. But only Carrasco became a good MLB player. That was my point. So few “lottery ticket” types actually pan out at the MLB level.

        Like

  75. !0th round pick Marlon Byrd went on to a 15 year career ; 25.8 WAR ; and had notably good years between age 34-37. 2 time Philly.

    Ryan Madson, a 9th round pick had a great career. Failed as a starter but what a reliever !

    Like

    1. There is still the chance Darick Hall, a 14th round pick, will emerge as a quality MLB player…..more than likely with another team at this point.
      And then ther were relief sometomes starting pitchers like Jake Diekman, Jarred Cosart and Vance Worley whomade the show at different degrees of success.

      Like

    2. Is 10th round pick really a “Lottery ticket”? I guess he is, yes, let’s include him in the list.

      I thought about Madson too. I didn’t include relievers, but ok, let’s add him.

      Like

  76. Still love Chooch! Signed as a 2B and became a really ggod Catcher. May not be Ronald Acuna, but a really good player, and a key player for us. He’s my pick. Also, Pirates promote Skenes to AA. I know he is very highly regarded, that that is a big jump for him.

    Like

    1. Skenes was the #1 overall pick out of LSU. That’s no joke, Skenes is legit. Skenes is now the #3 overall prospect in all of baseball. Skenes is 6’6″, 235lbs and he averaged 98 on his fastball. He’s not quite Stephen Strasburg when he got drafted but he’s close.

      Aaron Nola was drafted in 2014 (also out of LSU) and he finished the year at Reading. In 2015, Nola eventually made his way to the Phillies. I expect the same from Skenes for the Pirates.

      Like

      1. Skenes and Crews are legit. Skenes no doubt if the Bucs were playing for something could play now in the MLB.

        Not that he won’t take a few lumps in doing so from the better hitters but he is going to learn quick.

        Crews is in A ball already slashing 355/423/1.068 OPS

        Like

    2. Chooch may be the most loveable baseball player of all time. He was good-natured. He played hard and was extremely good. He was an underdog and late bloomer. He was a quiet but kind leader. And he was super clutch. What’s not to like??!

      Like

      1. Catch, I might nominate Tony Taylor for that title. Or, better yet, maybe we can say Chooch won the Tony Taylor Award.

        Like

  77. No question he is really good, Guru. Hoping for a full recovery from Andrew painter, and myabe we have someone as good. I also got a lot of optimism from Jim’s report of Abel tipping his pitches, and it bneing correctable. He seems to have disappeared from our thoughts for a while. I understand he hasn’t looked great, but Jim offered some hope. Someone mentioned recently that me way see O Ryan in the Majots before any of the other Pitching prospects.

    Like

    1. Both Abel and Kerkering should be in ST next year. If Kerkering impresses, I could see him making the opening day roster.

      Like

  78. For the first time in a long while, I’m pretty optimistic about the system – I just like the whole approach and I love that they are becoming a repository for second chance players like Cave and Dunn and Wilson and Hoffman. There’s no reason not to stack the upper system with these guys. If 20 percent of them work out, you’ve got a cheap and valuable big leaguer. And Johan Rojas is such a tremendous fielder that he’s going to play in the big leagues even if he never becomes more than a mediocre hitter (don’t put too much stock in what he’s doing this year – it takes most of a season for scouts to find the holes in a younger player’s swing – so we don’t know yet how sustainable this is). If he becomes like a 1 or 2 WAR offensive player, with his 2 WAR defense, he’s a first division regular. Oddly enough, Pache has a very similar profile, although Pache offers a greater likelihood of impact offense.

    And, slowly but surely, this team has improved its defense. Both Stott and Turner are well above average. Rojas, Pache and Marsh are all between good to great. Bohm has poor range but he’s sure-handed.

    Like

    1. Matt, Agreed… Bohm made plays at 1B I doubt Rhys could have made. He seems to be getting better and better every month he plays. He’s turned into a very solid player.
      Catch, Agree with Stott but not so much with Turner. Yes Trey makes some wonderful plays and he has nice range but he boots too many routine plays. No way he should have so many errors with the talent he has.
      And yes, our OF is so much better when Schwarber is at DH and we have Rojas, Marsh, Pache, or Cave out there in his place. Helps the pitching staff too.

      Like

    2. Yeah, so I heard. But with three or four bad fielding bats, he probably needs to stay at third. He still doesn’t have 1 total WAR (0.8 fWAR, – 0.1 bWAR), but I will agree that he is definitely quite a bit better than that metric suggests. But the bat is going to need to continue to develop for him to end up at first in the long run. But he is getting better. As for Turner, his range is ridiculous. You want him to make more of the Jimmy Rollins routine plays, but he is still well above average at short.

      Like

      1. Turner may have been well above average in the prior years…not so much this season. Just amongst the NL shortstops he is near the bottom…..with a notch above even under the SABR-SDI metric.
        Dansby Swanson…9.4
        Francisco Lindor….7.0
        Miguel Rojas….7..0
        Matt McLain….4.5
        Willy Adames…4.3
        Ezequiel Tovar….4.2
        Jon Berti….3.0
        Paul DeJong….1.9
        Xander Bogaerts….1.8
        Orlando Arcia….1.1
        Trea Turner….0.6
        ……..this season for him could be an anomaly.

        Like

  80. I’m an old guy so I’m not the best at finding things online. I’ve been looking at box scores to see how some of the younger kids are doing but I haven’t seen Aidan Miller lately. Nor have I seen that he’s hurt. He started off so well… wondering what’s up with him???

    Like

      2. Thanks for that Catch. I see Aidan Miller got 2 hits today…one of them to right field. He’s now batting .414!

        Like

      1. I don’t know that much about Aidan Miller, but what I do know, I love. Take a look at this kid – he’s built. He looks exactly what you want a young, power-hitting third baseman to look like.

        On Crawford, I have him as the #2 prospect on the team (Andrew Painter is still higher – his ceiling is as a perennial Cy Young candidate – a generational prospect). Crawford has what appears to be a legitimate 70 hit tool and his plate discipline gets better and better. I suspect he is a plus fielder too. The real question with Crawford is power. If he has a good deal of it, you’re looking at potential all-star or even MVP candidate. If he doesn’t have much of it (8-15 homers), he’s still a first division regular.

        Abel is still third, but his outcome depends on improved command – it could come, but we haven’t seen it yet.

        Like

        1. IMO, Miller will eventually slide over to third, perhasp as soon as FILs.
          His body type may, with more bulk build-up and strength, reminds me of the Braves’ current 3B, Austin Riley. Miller’s speed not be of the burner class, but he looks to have huge powerful trunks for sure.

          Like

        2. McGarry has fallen hard and fast. He probably will be somewhere between 8 and 10 with a huge question mark. Here’s to hoping he figures it out.

          Like

        3. I suspect if they re-drafted the 2022 draft, Crawford would be in the top 3-5 players. If they re-drafted the 2021 draft, Painter, surgery and all, would probably be in the top 3.

          Like

          1. Yes…they would have gone higher….not sure about how high Painter would go, based on what he is currently going through.
            Some teams now seem to be hesitant on drafting hi-velo HS arms.
            They rather lean on drafting those HS arms in the 2nd round or 3rd rounds and working the bonus money around them.

            Like

            1. Agreed, but Andrew Painter is something of a unicorn. If he emerges from TJ surgery with similar velocity you are looking at a player with a HOF ceiling. Seriously. I am not saying he will be a HOFer or that is a likely outcome. I am saying that would be his ceiling.

              Like

        4. I really like Miller too. Very exciting prospect.

          I am high on Crawford but a 70 hit is maybe too high. I would be happy with a 55/60 hit along with 80 run and 60/70 defense. That’s an all-star profile.

          Like

          1. You’re right a 70 is high, but it’s at least 60 and probably a 65 with perhaps even a higher ceiling. He is gifted on that front. And the strikeout rates are extraordinarily low consistent with that type of ability.

            Like

            1. It is tough to give someone in the low minors that kind of hitting grade. That means some serious plus pitch recognition. Is he seeing high quality breaking pitches at his level and laying off of them when they are out of the zone? I see a 70 grade and I think 5-10% k-rate like Luis Arreaz. I don’t think 55/60 is pretty fair for what he has done so far. And that still makes him an excellent prispect.

              Like

    4. Go to milb.com. Click on the 3 bars in the upper left hand corner, then click on scores. Next, click on scores on the right side. Click on MLB Affiliate and scroll down and choose Philadelphia Phillies. This will give you all of thePhillies minor league games.

      Like

  82. The Mets catcher, Francisco Alvarez, reminds me a lot of Carlos Ruiz. They are about the same size and they even look a lot alike. Alvarez has much more power but Ruiz had better contact skills. I hope the Phillies wait out this young pitcher tonight. He walks a ton of guys. But. You know the Phils. They tend to chase and often make guys they see for the first time look like Cy Young.

    Like

    1. yes ciada…..walking 48 batters in 66 innings at Triple AAA is definetly a ton.
      He does bring the heat, around 95-96 and his slider will be tough for Schwarber and Harper.
      He does however throw more than the typical amount of pitches….as a strike out pitcher, and wild pitcher, that seems to be the norm….and of his 21 starts…..only once did get thru 5 innings.
      Phillies hitters need to show patience

      Like

    1. Tait being the youngest of the 30 on the list, is a good sign.
      Only player signed by the Phillies from Panama last signing period and, who signed for just $90,000 ….is still 16 until Aug. 27.
      He could be another hidden gem.

      Like

  84. Crawford just wins. Jersey Shore now in 1st place. He had a 2 hit night last night including a triple to left center.

    Also looks like Dylan Crews got another promotion and is now in AA.

    Like

    1. DMAR:
      Crawford and Crews….looks like the Phillies and Nats have their future CFers.
      If you were Dombrowski or Rizzo….would you trade one for the other?

      Like

      2. Don’t look now, but the Phillies, once known for their consistent first round misses, are hitting on first round pick after first round pick. In consecutive drafts, they’ve drafted Bohm (very good pick), Stott (outstanding pick), Abel (good pick or better – they certainly identified a potentially elite talent), Painter (stupendous pick), Crawford (great pick), and Miller (very promising pick). Your system and big league team look a whole lot better when you consistently hit on the first round picks, doesn’t it? This is something to get excited about!!!

        Like

        1. And they are hitting on first round picks now outside the top ten.
          The two top ten picks of Moniak and Haseley may have not turned out as they would have expected….but they have definetly found the right formula since.

          Like

          1. Agreed – this is an enormous development. It’s one thing to hit on a top 5 pick – it’s another altogether to pick between 10 and 30 and hit big – the best organizations, like the Braves and Dodgers – hit on these guys all the time, but most organizations do not.

            Like

            1. Since we’re talking about a recent development, I did a check on first round picks 2010 and after, and those who have generated 10+ WAR. Note that some are PAST pick 30. Here’s a partial list:

              ASTROS
              George Springer, 2011 #11, 35.7 WAR
              Carlos Correa, 2012 #1, 40.7 WAR
              Lance McCullers, 2012 #41, 11.1 WAR
              Alex Bregman, 2015 #2, 34.2 WAR
              Kyle Tucker, 2015 #5, 16.8 WAR

              BRAVES
              Austin Riley, 2015 #40, 16.2 WAR

              DODGERS
              Corey Seager, 2012 #18, 30.6 WAR
              Walker Buehler, 2015 #24, 13.7 WAR
              Will Smith, 2016 #32, 14.3 WAR

              YANKEES
              Aaron Judge, 2013 #32, 39.9 WAR

              RAYS
              Blake Snell 2011 #52, 18.8 WAR

              PHILLIES
              JP Crawford, 2013 #16, 14.3 WAR
              Aaron Nola, 2014 #7, 31.1 WAR

              Like

        2. Exciting times for us prospects aficionados.

          Aidan Miller is a huge surprise for me, he seems to be highly considered.

          Like

      3. Romus lets wait until they do it in majors, i know you are old enough to remember, one of the best phillies prospects ever, won triple crown in triple a, was going to be the next Willie Mays, that famous guy Mike Anderson

        Like

        1. rocco…yes Mike Anderson, and the Bull together on the same minor league team in Oregon…the original bash brothers.
          I was so excited back then to see them together in Phillies red bashing , but alas…
          Eerily, similar future fate as Hoskins and Cozens from their Reading days.

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  85. It appears you’ll be able to watch Reading take on Harrisburg tonight at 6:30 Free. Abel against Crews will be a great matchup to watch….

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    1. Abel apparently had a good start last night 7 IP 2 hits 1 ER but 4 BBs. Dylan Crews went 0-4

      Justin Crawford in a blink of an eye (6 games) is slashing 304/407/842 OPS

      Bergolla 2-4 from the lead off spot last night. Jim I would love to hear your analysis of this young man….

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