Mailbag Answers

Other Stuff

I thought a mailbag request would draw a lot of questions.  It didn’t.  I’ll provide answers to the two questions in the comments section of that post here.  I culled through the four earlier posts to find any other questions and provided answers below.

Mailbag questions

Rob: July 11, 2023:  Jim, Do you think the Phillies’ scouting and development programs have moved forward? Have you observed such progress from your vantage point?

Murray: July 11, 2023:  Jim – as you know, I love to talk about prospects …  My question to you is whether you see improved development techniques with the new team in place, they’ve obviously had improved results.

Yes, the programs have moved forward.  Not as much as you would think because they were never as bad as people chose to believe.

During the past few years, we noticed smaller groups, more coaches, more instructors, and more/smaller/shorter sessions.  Now, they are bringing in more technology to improve and monitor development.

What can’t be overlooked is the turnover in support personnel during this transformation.  Those who didn’t accept the new direction prevented a seamless transition.  It took time to weed them out.  The current staff is open to all ideas but adheres to the plan and works well together.  This was a particular problem a few years ago when groups that should have been communicating weren’t.

I pulled these from early comment sections.

NCPhilly: July 9, 2023:  I am … curious about who you both think will realistically be available around where the Phillies pick and who you would like to see the team pick.

infrequent poster: July 10, 2023:  I thought we had NO SHOT at drafting Aidan Miller. Wow. He could be the Phillies’ answer to Austin Riley.

Robin Mitchell-Boyask: July 10, 2023:  … love the 1st pick and am dying to hear what people think about Rojas hitting over .300 at Reading.

It would have been difficult to guess who would be available at 27, but the Phillies were pretty good about that this year.  Of the two guys they expected to be there, one was and the other might have been if Miller went earlier.  The Phillies got lucky the last time a player dropped unexpectedly.  In 2019, they didn’t take their targeted pick when Stott dropped to 14.

The Guru: July 11, 2023:  Raylin Heredia has torched the FCL and I’m wondering what he has to do to get a promotion. Jim, have you heard anything from visiting scouts about him?  All of a sudden, the Phillies have an abundance of OFs in the minors that bear watching: Crawford, Heredia, Boyd, Wilson, Rojas. It’s a good problem to have.

Yes.  Every scout at the Complex is aware of Heredia.  He has been scouted by all who have visited the Complex.  They all think he’s a solid prospect.  He is.

He’s more likely to be traded than he is to get promoted.  It’s possible he gets a bump up when the FCL season is over, but not likely before that.

The Guru: July 11, 2023:  Wen Hui Pan is only 20 and he’s already filled out physically. I’m curious why the Phillies haven’t at least tried to stretch him out to become a starter. His 3rd pitch is not good enough?

Maybe next year.  Pan Wen Hui (Pan When Hway) has about ten pitches.  Seriously.  He comes from a different training and preparation environment.  Part of his development has been fitting Pan into an American training plan.  He was accustomed to pitching on the same day each week with 6 days off between starts.  Between starts, he threw an unheard of 75 or more pitches during his bullpens.

The Guru: July 11, 2023:  …  I’m more excited about Eduardo Tait in the DSL. He’s 16, a catcher, and ripping it. He should be going to the FCL next season if it continues.

Romus: July 12, 2023:  Yes…Tait is raking and looks to be a very good prospect…plus he may be the youngest from that signing class.  Phillies spent the bulk of their allocation on Caba ($3M), and he also is doing well, but Tait could be a steal, he was a bargain so to speak for $90K

DPhrey: July 12, 2023:  Tait is potentially a great thing for the system. He was OPSing over 1 the other day as a catcher. For that league, as a 16-year-old – that’s fantastic!  No idea about receiving skills but they’ve had him DH a few times. Not sure if that’s just to get him ABs or an indictment on his abilities. Small sample size, but power isn’t one of those things you accident into. He’s my best surprise in the system.

For goodness sake, guys.  Pump the brakes.  Remember how disappointed you were when SS Luis Garcia didn’t measure up as he moved up the affiliate ladder.  And, his “great” season was as a 17-year-old in the GCL, not the lower DSL.

 

28 thoughts on “Mailbag Answers”

  1. sure, it is not that long after the rule change, but what changes do you see based on the elimination of the shift in the minors, and coaching strategy in the minors?

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  2. We have been to a few Draft League Games in Trenton, NJ. The playing is horrible. Do you see that league continuing? I really doubt I will spend the money for highly discounted tix with food next year.

    Also, why do you think the Phillies continue with Sosa and Harrison. I dread seeing them play and can’t believe giving some young guys a chance would hurt, even if a rotating basis.

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    1. Edmundo Sosa is only 27, just a few months older than Alec Bohm. Sosa had 1 crazy season (looking like an outlier now) but he had a reputation of strong defensive skills. He still has positive dWar but obviously not as good as when he was a Cardinal. Note that when he was in St. Louis, he was primarily a SS where as he’s a 3B here. Something to think about.

      There’s a reason why vets are bench players. They accept their roles and they know how to prepare for them. Young players, coming from playing every day, will need to get used to 1-2 starts per week. Is that fair for their development? Johan Rojas (who’s collecting a ML pay check so he’s not complaining) has only got into 4 games. He’s in the same role as Christian Pache, playing against LH pitchers.

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  3. Jim, if you’re willing to give your “scout” opinion, what do you think of Justin Crawford and Emaarion Boyd?

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  4. Yes….perhaps it is best to temper the enthusiasm for Edouard Tait.
    What has me jazzed is his young age and what he is doing at this point of his career against the older Latin pitchers in the DSL ….he does not turn 17 until late August.
    I like to see how he does in the October FIL and get some analyst opinions.

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    1. Let’s flip this one a bit, Jim, is there anybody that we should be throwing a bit more gas on? Someone you or people you trust have seen that either flies under the radar, or is maybe on the radar and completely deserving of the hype?

      Also, I’m seconding Franks question above. Love to hear your thoughts on those guys.

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    1. McGarry had a really good start yesterday, but he needs to show more. His walk rate needs to come down. Absolute best case, he goes to Lehigh to end this season. Then he comes into ST and blows people away and breaks camp with the team. But more likely he makes his ML debut sometime in 2024.

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        1. I don’t see any prospects pushing their way onto the Phillies roster this season if that’s what you mean.

          In 2024, it could be a different story. McGarry is closer than Abel, but they both need improvements. DLC and Muzziotti are both long shots and bench players at best. Rojas could stick as a 4th OF in 2024, especially if Harper is full-time at 1B.

          Rojas is MLB ready with his glove. The question will always be his bat. He has a career minor league OPS of .748. He has the tools but will he have an opportunity to do this for the Phillies. Marsh is ahead of him, and Pache has resurrected his career. Not only that, Schwarber is still under contract for 2 more years and Castellanos for 3 more years. If everyone is healthy (and not traded), Rojas won’t be a starter. Right now, Rojas best value to the Phillies is in a trade. Whether the Phillies will get value back for him is dicey because of his inconsistent bat.

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  6. Lee appears to be a 2b only prospect. With Stott set there for a while, add Lee to the likely to be traded pile. I’m just not sure he looks good enough to be more than a throw in to a larger deal. I think Muzzioti has absolutely put himself in the soon to be traded group with his performance this year. He’s going to be some team’s starting CF very soon. It will hurt to lose these guys but there will be definitely be some trades and they’re the most likely to go. The 3 pitchers at the top and Crawford are hands off. Beyond that, Rojas and Kerkering could be moved but I doubt they will.

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    1. Simon Muzziotti, already 24, has a career minor league OPS of .710. Yes, he’s having a crazy season at Lehigh but I don’t see how you can look at him and say he’s starter level. He’s built like Esteury Ruiz of the A’s but Ruiz (also 24) has a career minor league OPS of .821.

      Muzziotti is a stop gap solution at CF and a likely 4th OF primarily because of his defensive skills. He likely has no place on the Phillies but his trade value is not great. He’s a throw in at best.

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      1. He’s actually a guy who has t had a full normal season in several years. I believe this is who he is.

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  7. Yay PhuturePhils are back!
    IMO with rumors of Painter to be included in a possible Ohtani trade (incredibly unlikely) I don’t see that as his trade value has probably plummeted and I don’t see the team trading at such a disadvantage.

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  8. Thoughts on Noah Song:
    Should the Phils add him to roster on the 28th and carry him thru rest of season?
    Should the Phils just offer him back to Boston (I’m sure they will take him)?
    Should the Phils use him as trade fodder?

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    1. If he’s throwing 90-92, they won’t add him. A bad team might want him though because he could be better next year.

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        1. He threw harder a few years back and the thinking is that with time he could return to that level. The Phillies don’t have time to wait though as they fight for a wild card spot.

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  9. Question for you Jim – what’s your thoughts on Simmons? He’s finally having the season we hoped for after scuffling for a few years. He was recently back in CWater on a rehab so I’m sure you saw him. How does he look different than prior years? Thanks.

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  10. Jim, who are your favorite (maybe to 5ish) Phillies prospects to follow right now?

    Not neccesarily the 5 best or highest rated, but the ones you find yourself checking in on everytime they play.

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  11. Jim, how does Mavis Graves look? He’s taking his lumps in the FCL after getting drafted last season. Graves is a tall guy (6’6″) but I heard that his fastball is upper 80s?

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  12. What do we make of Kroon? He’s had a terrific season as a slightly older AA guy. He plays lots of positions too. Major league bench player potential?

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  14. Yes, Wilkinson’s July numbers were filthy. I was wondering if he is a junk baller or if there is a future ML reliever possibly in that left arm. Only 6′ tall, so doesnt have an overpowering presence physically.

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    1. From a trusted source in CLW:
      “Wilkinson is a spin artist – big hook – low 90’s FB – big hooks dominate in low A – see Konnor Ash….”

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        1. Yeah…watched Steve Okert last night……he dazzled Phillies hitters with 92-94 velo and good slider/sweeper or whatever they call it these days.
          If Wilkinson can get his velo to that range of 92-94 then he could be a good reliever…….but he also needs to get better control.

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