While there are some who might think that the Phillies have done well to climb back into the wild card race, there are others who might point out that too many key players are underperforming.
Collectively, the Phillies have done well to overcome a pre-season, season-ending injury to 1B Rhys Hoskins and an early season injury to 1B Darick Hall that left them without a real first baseman until Hall’s recent recall. They withstood the early season absence of RF Bryce Harper until his earlier-than-anticipated return as a DH. Their bullpen has pitched effectively, making up for some of the shortcomings of their offense.
Individually, a few players are having very good seasons. OF Nick Castellanos has bounced back wonderfully from last season’s disappointment. Second baseman Bryson Stott is having a much better sophomore season than I expected. Third baseman Alec Bohm is having a good season, still needs to grow into his power but his defense at third looks improved. CF Brandon Marsh continues to improve at the plate. The bench players have performed well when playing their anticipated roles.
Others leave much to be desired. LF Kyle Schwarber is woefully inadequate as a hitter. I remember telling you that he would be the Phillies’ leadoff batter. And, there he is, leading off although he is not deserving of the role (Bill Muny, “Deserve’s got nothing to do with it.”). I don’t care how many HRs he hits, a sub-Mendoza line batter does not belong that high up in the order.
SS Trea Turner is also a big disappointment. His free-swinging ways have his average down below .250, and his defense (10 errors, .968 Fld%) has been shaky. Between Turner and Schwarber, the Phillies have the least productive top-of-the-order in baseball.
Catcher JT Realmuto is also wallowing with a mediocre sub-.250 batting average. Although his CS% is well below his career average, it is still above league average.
DH Bryce Harper is hitting well, but his SLG and OPS are well below his career norms.
The bench, while performing well in their bench roles, has been exposed when they’ve been called upon to fill everyday roles.
The rotation has been shaky. Aaron Nola is spending a lot of his future free-agent dollars with an erratic season. Zack Wheeler has been better than Nola but still inconsistent. Tijuan Walker and Ranger Suarez have been promising, but still have their ups and downs. Cristopher Sanchez looks like he may have settled the fifth starter question for now,
After a slow start, the bullpen has become a strength. However, recent injuries suffered by Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado will tax the ‘pen in the second half.
Organizational depth doesn’t appear to be as deep as last year. With so many spots seemingly locked at the end of last season, the organization had difficulty signing the Triple-A depth required for a championship run. Couple that with what I’ll refer to as WBC repercussions and Dave Dombrowski’s reluctance to trust his minor league prospects, and the Phillies have a personnel problem that will haunt them through the rest of the season.
By WBC repercussions I refer to the stupidity of staging a tournament during spring training. Alvarado was throwing full bore in Clearwater at the Complex. I saw and talked to him. He has been on the IL twice now. Suarez missed the start of the season when he suffered a setback while trying to get ready for the WBC. Turner was instrumental to USA’s success in the WBC but has sucked with the Phillies. Realmuto and Scwarber’s regular season shortcomings were mentioned above. I can’t blame the WBC for Schwarber’s poor season. He had a poor average and a ton of Ks last year. However, he was supposed to benefit from the new shift rules. He hasn’t.
With the trade deadline fast approaching, there will be a lot of speculation on what the Phillies need and whom the Phillies will target. The way the team has been constructed, there is no doubt that the Phillies will be buyers to take advantage of the window facing them.
The Phillies will be placing the whole org on the trading block in order to improve their chances. No one will be untouchable except for probably Andrew Painter who is probably untradeable as his health stands. While I would like to see Simon Muzziotti or Johan Rojas man the outfield for the Phillies, they are just trade pieces now. You can say that about any position player in the system. The Phillies are in develop-to-trade mode for the foreseeable future. The same can be expected for most if not all of the pitchers we have, too.
If the Phillies don’t make the playoffs, it won’t be for lack of trying.
Phuture Phillies 
Hi Jim. Nice to have you back and I’m happy to hear the positive reports about your wife’s health. I agree with just about everything you said about their season so far. I really hope they don’t trade Abel or Rojas. While I like what I’ve seen from Pache so far, they really need to hedge against him returning to his prior form. I don’t think Marsh is the answer in CF long term. I do think he could become a solid LF with his bat improving. What is your number 1 priority for them at the deadline?
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I’d like to see Rojas or Muzziotti for the next 2 weeks just to see what they can do. I hate trading away young talent for 2 month rentals… unless we get a difference maker in return. We don’t need another liability in LF (we’ve got plenty of those) and we don’t need another guy who bats .240 and hits one HR per week. We’ve got plenty of those as well.
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Agree….2-month rentals seem to fail to live up to expectations more so than what is expected…..plus the prospect leaving seems to fare better.
The Ben Brown-David Roberston trade from last year still erks me.
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It was a high price, but the Cubs knew that the Phillies wanted David Robertson badly and played the trade game to perfection. And guess what, the Phillies will be making that type of trade again because they’re trying to win.
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This makes no sense. Castellanos has 2.1 WAR and he’s an all-star, Marsh has 2.1 WAR, and Pache has 1.1 WAR in limited time AND he’s ripping LH pitching AND he’s an elite defender. Rojas and Muzziotti are NOT starting over those 3 guys, and showcasing those 2 guys for 2 weeks is going to mean something? What’s 2 weeks going to prove?
Also, you need to give talent to get talent. Getting a “difference maker” in return is going to cost WAY MORE than Rojas and Muzziotti.
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Also Mickey Moniak for Thor.
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Why are we rehashing this? Moniak’s time in Philadelphia was over and he needed a change of scenery. He wasn’t performing and he was always getting injured. If Moniak is performing for the Angels, good for him. But I’m not losing any sleep over this trade, and I’m pretty sure the Phillies aren’t either.
Funny how nobody is mentioning the Spencer Howard trade, considering he wasn’t performing and also needed a change of scenery. Could it be that Spencer Howard has been performing even worse for the Rangers?
The morale of the story is the Phillies will NOT “win” all the trades. And in general, I don’t care what happens to the traded player. The Moniak deal was fair, the Spencer Howard deal was fair, but I think the Ben Brown was a bit much. And David Robertson pitched his heart out for the Phillies. The Phillies don’t make the postseason without him.
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I am happy for Mickey Moniak. I was always a Mickey Moniak fan. But if Mickey Moniak was in Philadelphia who would he be starting in place of?
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Presumably if he were still in Philly, we wouldn’t have gotten Marsh. I don’t think either player takes that next step forward if not for the respective trades, so I’m very happy for both of them and still cheering for both of them.
I still think those two trades need to be combined in context. It doesn’t feel like the team would feel comfortable trading Mickey if we didn’t know we were getting another CF option. And seeing as they were traded on the same day, those discussions had to have at least a little overlap.
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With Josh Harrison hurt the Phillies should bring up Scott Kingery. If they select someone else he needs to seek a trade.
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What is with the love for Scott Kingery?
First, Kingery is NOT on the 40 man roster so he will have to be added. And second, I’m certain that the Phillies would love to trade Kingery because he’s getting paid $8.25M to play at Lehigh! So no team will be trading for that contract.
The Phillies will most certainly decline his 2024 team option ($1M buyout) and most likely not offer arbitration, so he should be a FA in 2024 at age 30.
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It’s not that mysterious; he’s a home-grown guy that once upon a time showed a lot of promise. And he’s currently hitting alright with good defense at AAA.
He’s certainly not in the Phils’ future plans anymore, but would anyone really lose any sleep if he took Harrison’s spot? Harrison is neither hitting nor defending well (it feels like literally every time he’s on the field the opposing team gets an infield hit to wherever he’s playing). I’ve honestly wanted us to release him for like 3/4 of the season at this point. So there’s Kingery’s roster spot taken care of (if Kingery is the direction the FO decided to take).
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very upbeat article by Alex Coffee on the culture at the Threshers in today’s (July 13) Philly Inquirer
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I saw that article! Her articles are amazing!!
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Yes, Sophia Davis! I give her a lot of credit for the idea to construct a story about the culture… something you don’t often hear about, as well as doing a nice job with it.
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I missed the transaction that took Kingery off the 40 man roster. Well that is probably a dead deal, Ellis will be up or Clemens.
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I might be wrong, but I don’t think he has been on the 40 man at all this year. Nobody is going to pick him up due to his contract, so there is no reason for him to take ups a spot unless we need him.
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Still think Kingery is more valuable than Josh Harrison or Drew Ellis.
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I agree. He still has the talent there somewhere. I imagine he would be the call if he was on the 40-man.
Kingery was my biggest disappointment in the system the last few years. The city would have loved him. His 2017 season in the minors made him look like a future all-star, but his 2018/2019 seasons in the majors exposed his fatal flaw. It’s hard to be a 5’10” middle infielder in the majors with a 30%+ strike out rate. While improved, he is still striking out 26% of the time this season. I hope he goes somewhere else next year and gets a chance to earn a spot in the majors.
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The Phillies roster as constructed puts them in quite a bind. Realmuto, Harper, Stott, Turner, Castellanos, Marsh, and even Schwarber aren’t going anywhere. That leaves Hall and Bohm.
Bohm has improved but as of right now the bat does not justify the defensive liabilities (-0.1 bwar, 0.4 fwar). He is young, cheap and you hope he continues to improve. And I don’t know if there is much on the market at 3B (would Candalerio be available? What would he cost?).
That leaves Hall. It is a shame that injury robbed him of his chance to show if he belongs, but if you are going to improve Harper to 1B, Schwarber to DH, and a new LF seems to be the obvious choice. I don’t think an unproven Pache or Muzziotti moves the needle. Although Pache in CF and Marsh in LF I think really helps the pitchers.
As for pitchers, the top 4 seem set but Walker traditionally doesn’t have great second halves. A depth piece would be nice because the chances of not having an injury is low. But, again at what cost?
Depth at reliever would be good too. With all the injuries. It would have been nice if the Phillies could have developed that depth from within the organization but, alas, that does not appear to be the case.
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Bohm is not going anywhere either. He’s cheap and if the Phillies traded him, they won’t get value back. The Phillies have to hope that he improves to the point that he’s a positive WAR player, which is a huge ask right now. I would rather move Bohm before relegating him to the bench. I don’t think Bohm will handle being a bench player that well.
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A depth piece in starting….I like to see more of Sanchez before I label him as a AAAA pitcher.
And Bailey Falter may be coming around again….his last few starts have been better than earlier starts this season. the one area, however, he is running hot and cold is his control and walk rate. Some starts he has it under control, and others it escapes him.
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AAA Iowa : RHP Ben Brown – 4-6, 5.76 ERA in 12 starts, 50 IP, 74 K’s, 34 walks
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Jim, I am beyond excited to see PP back up and running and to hear that you and your bride are well! I’ve missed this so much and checked back weekly for months. I almost had to pinch myself that it was really back! And I love seeing names of regular posters! I’ve always appreciated the banter and insights.
I notice that Hinkey is not back yet. I like that V1 and others are as high on Aidan Miller as what I’d read. Seems a great pick for end of 1st Rd. 🙂
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Hinkey started on Twitter. Hinkie on Sports
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There are reports that Phillies players and coaches asked Juan Soto to fly with them to Philadelphia, and he did join them. Nice guys, I guess, not wanting him to travel alone. But, really WTF was that all about? No way we can afford him in 2025 (unless his underperformance continues) and the trade price would be too high.
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It’s just what happens behind the scenes with travel, don’t read anything into it. The players all know each other.
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Yeah, nothing to see here. He’s playing in Philly and these guys know each other.
He’s friends with some of them and baseball is basically a fraternity at the end of the day, so even if he didn’t know them that way I’m positive they’d still offer.
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I can’t stand Soto and even if we did have the funds I wouldn’t want him…
For all of our spending where has it really taken us…
of the top 4 payrolls in baseball (Phillies are 4th) none of them are leading their divisions and a few of them aren’t even in a WC spot.
Other fun fact: you can multiply the Rays payroll by 4 and still be under what the Mets are spending for their club.
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Johan Rojas has been promoted to the show! DD is a G! LFG
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I’m not sure I believe this yet. I’m expecting to see Kingery promoted to replace Harrison and Hall to get optioned but I would expect Cave to get called up and Rojas moves up to AAA. If I’m wrong, then DD must really LOVE Rojas!!!
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Kingery’s promotion necessitates a 40 transaction…meaning someone else gets DFA or placed on the IL(10 or 60 day). I wonder who fits that category!
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Luis Ortiz, Eric Uelmen or Drew Ellis.
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Yeah….they would be options.
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Jim, I’m glad to hear someone finally Dai those things out loud about Schwarber. I love the guy’s leadership and appreciate what he apparently does in the clubhouse but he has been downright awful this season – offensively, defensively, and all the intangibles like hustle, base running, etc. In many ways, his style of play has turned Odubel-esque. I hope he isn’t dealing with something off the field but he just appears to be “not present” a lot of times.
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I can’t imagine this is real, but fun to speculate. I wouldn’t put it past DD. He loves star hunting.
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Possible in that we are a team in the MLB and are allowed to make a trade for other MLB players.
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MLB just names any big market team that have the cash to go after Ohtani. Ohtani is not coming here. And his FA contract would be scary, something like 11 years, $500M. There’s no precedent for anybody to hit And pitch this way for any serious amount of time. You wonder when his body will break down. When that happens, that contract is going to be a serious albatross.
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If that were real that would be awesome! I would LOVE for the Phillies to get Shohei Ohtani!
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Why is Covey in the majors with his stats and record and age, What do the Phillies see in him, Am i missing something?
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I’ve had my own theories for awhile on Covey. I think he’s literally a place holder for Song. They’ll have to place Song on the 26 man roster to keep him and they want someone already designated as that person to take the spot. There’s literally no other reason to keep him.
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TrentonGuy….yoy probably have something there. Song will need to e on tha ctive roster for at least 90 days…..will not happen in its entirety this season since he was shut down for awhile, so, for example, they may get him active for only 60 days this season, and then carry it over for 30 days next season. unless Dombrowski makes a trade with the Sox for Song, then there is no need for the mandatory 90 days active.
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Nope. The Phillies cannot trade with the Red Sox to circumvent the restrictions of the Rule 5 draft. If they tried the commissioner’s office would likely void the deal. Anything that allowed the Phillies to avoid placing Song on the 26-man roster would violate the spirit of the Rule 5 draft.
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I agree with Trenton Guy, I think the team has every intention of keeping Noah Song, and as soon as he has to be placed on the Roster, he replaces Covey. Rojas has already had a terrific play in CF today. He is a legit GG caliber CF. Glad to see him get a chance, and hoping he can hit.
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Welcome back everyone. Thank you to Jimbo for resurrecting the site. Kudos on your wife’s good news.
Help me here, someone. On Turner’s behind the back flip, would he have gotten the runner/batter if he had thrown to first?
He has made some good plays since signing here but I don’t believe he is one of the top defensive SSs in the league.
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ciada..you are correct, and unfortunately this season Trea Turner’s DRS is in the negative….ranks 18th among MLB shortstops.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2023-01-01&enddate=2023-12-31&sort=13,d
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So Romus, all I saw was a replay. Does he get the runner at first?
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Most likely. Sosa probably also should have been paying closer attention, but if the scorer had judged it an error (which they probably should have), it’d be on Turner.
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I believe official scorers have a purpose to increase hits to prove banning the shift increases BA…
I was for banning the shift but some of the scoring has been atrocious
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Congrats to Rojas for his first career hit just a few hours after making an incredible defensive play in the first inning of his debut.
Here’s hoping it’s the first of thousands.
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Love this kid! He just executed one of the best bunts a Phillie has laid down in years, after the best defensive play of the season. He plays CF with such a great read snd shat seems like effortless movement, he reminds me of Garry Maddox! I love the way he plays.
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I like Rojas as well! He got his first hit and made a lot of good plays! I can’t wait to see what else he does in the Major League!!!!!!
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Games like this is exactly why I missed Phuture Phillies. Come here to see/hear people wanting to use him as a trade chip, sew what player comps they have for him, discuss his hit tool.
So excited for Rojas. Gun to my head dunno if I’d take Pache or Rojas but I feel the Phillies won’t keep both. Maybe maybe this year but moving forward isn’t feasible with the rest of the roster make up.
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Wow We all saw Moniak Cant believe how wrong i was on this kid, Even if he only hits against right hand pitching, Never saw this kind of bat, So dont understand what light turned on for him, Love Rojas Glove, hope the kid hits, The skipping of Triple a suprise me, Looking ever two weeks at LHV games on channel 59, So many older pitchers in that league, who dont throw hard,
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rocco……he really is proving many of us wrong. Maybe he can keep it up, though the analytics side of the game, seem to indicate he will settle at something less than what he has now going on. ……BB-2.7% (too low) 31.5%(too high)…..BABIP -.429 (too high)……he will need to adjust at some point, especially if LHPs come into the equation.
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K rate 31.5%
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Man, the home plate umps have been AWFUL this series. Just all of them. The first one was the best, but even he had that one ridiculously high strike call and a few other closer misses.
Well, I guess it’s good for a young guy to get used to getting wrung up on terrible calls. Need to practice holding your tongue so you don’t get tossed by the umpire show.
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Not sure where this goes.
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Really missed you guys so happy we’re back and so happy all appears well in Jim’s world now.
So much can happen in a few months its scary. Many times in my lifetime I’ve learned you don’t know what you got til its gone. Also always be careful what you wish for on the SS front.
I wanted Turner all along and knew when Bryce made those comments on air last season that’s who we were getting but I would have taken any of the 3 big ones
Turner 1.1 WAR
Bogaerts 1.8 WAR
Swanson 2.9 WAR
Most frustrating with Trea is the # of bad pitches he swings at.
Harper has to move to the 3 hole and stay there.
I lobbied hard to get Castellanos and despite the numbers thus far his swing is horrid. Despite his early season numbers he’s got no business hitting 3rd in this LU.
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I have zero concerns about Turner. He is elite. Obviously I wish that he had better production in the first half, but it happens. No concern on my end.
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When Trea Turner wasn’t producing in the first half did you have any concerns then or did you never have any concerns about Trea Turner?
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I never have any concerns about Trea Turner so long as he is healthy. Everyone goes through rough patches. it’s baseball. but the tools are elite.
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You do bring up a good point. That is true that everyone goes through a rough time. Hopefully Trea Turner can start doing better soon!
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Carlos De La Cruz’s performance this year has moved me from skeptical to intrigued. I won’t be a full believer until I see him do it at the MLB level. But I am definitely more open to the possibility of him being a legit MLB prospect.
His stats away from Reading are actually better than his home hitting stats. He doesn’t have a big handed split difference. He’s got easy power. Really interesting prospect.
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He plays both OF and LF pretty well too.
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DMAR…assume you mean OF and 1B..and he does play them both well.
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I did Romus I’m rusty from the layoff 🙂
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The Phillies are also 2 games better than they were at this point last year. They’ve done this despite under-performances from Kyle Schwarber (.189/.314/.444), Trea Turner (.249/.301/.386), and a power outage from Bryce Harper (just 4 HRs). If/when any of these guys perform closer to their norms, the club should be able to separate itself from other WC contenders.
The Phils should win & go 10 games over .500 tomorrow night when Aaron Nola faces Julio Teheran. Nola will be coming off 8 (!) days rest. He’s waay better with more rest. BTW … kudos to Dave Dombrowski on holding the line on a Nola LTX this spring. I know I had this discussion with a number of other posters last season and into the winter. Aaron has been very good as a Phillie, but he is not a SP1. I’m pretty certain Dombrowski was willing to pay Aaron something in line with what Joe Musgrove got (5/100M) a year out from free agency. I figured the team might go 5/110-115M. Nola & his agent declined. Not saying he won’t make more than that as a FA. Chances are pretty good a club will overpay. But the truth is a Nola long term/”big money” deal is a pretty risky venture. He’s on the wrong side of 30, has more IP than anyone in MLB over the last 5.5 seasons, avoided TJ once with PRP injections, and the 2023 peripherals are not rosy. Ks are down. HRs are up. Some of that may be the result of a long season in 2022, but 2023 may (hopefully) be just as long.
Finally, if I was betting on one guy for the Phillies to trade for before the deadline it would be Jordan Hicks. Dombrowski is addicted to power arms. Hicks (and his 102 MPH FB) is going to be Dombo’s fix. The BP has been the strength of the team so far, but with Jose Alvarado and Ser-Ant’ny ping-ponging back and forth between healthy and the IR, the club could/should look to add to their relief crew. Not out of the question the Phillies POBO looks to expand the deal with the Cardinals to include any of Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, or Tyler O’Neil. I’m having a hard time seeing Paul Goldschmidt or Noalan Arenado in red and white pinstripes.
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I still want Nola back, but at a reasonable price. If he’s going to leave for a team that wants to pay him for his (exceptional) peaks, that’s understandable but we shouldn’t be matching. If he’s willing to be paid like a 3, that’s a gamble I’m more than willing to take.
And you’re right that there’s a chance we win tomorrow… because he gave up 4 ERs in his last start. He’s inexplicably incapable of stringing together consecutive starts of <4 ER this year (he had 3 in a row from April 16-28, and literally has not done it since). Baseball is weird, man.
Finally, I agree that Goldy and Arenado are not coming here. In large part because STL said they're not on the block. We're not about to pay a no-trade tax of extra prospects just to get another aging star. What I'm hoping for is DD can pull another Marsh trade and get a young starting pitcher who may have lost their luster and needs a change of scenery.
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Dan K…..”hoping for is DD can pull another Marsh trade and get a young starting pitcher who may have lost their luster and needs a change of scenery.”…two AL teams that may have what fits your description…Royals and As.
As…Medina and/or Muller
Royals….Singer or Lynch.
All of them have their warts, either control issues or just trying to put the batter away with a decent out-pitch.
But they have youth on their side and at one time were highly rated prospects in their respective organizations.
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And not do count out Bailey Falter for a late season pick-up.
His July has been very good.
Three starts…..15 IPs, 2 ER, 4 BBs, 11 Ks, 10 hits.
If he can keep this progression up for half-dozen more starts, he may have turned his season around….and he knowsnow what it is like to pitch in pressure situations from what he experienced last season down the stretch.
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The problem for Falter is the 11 Ks in 15 IP. He doesn’t have the out pitch to put away AAA hitters, let alone big leaguers. His command has to be near perfect for him to succeed.
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Yeah that can be an issue.
He still may be able to regain his form from late last season
And what the team may eed from a 5th in the rotation is someone who can go for a quality 5.
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Two things matter in baseball with regard to record:
1. Can you find a way into the playoffs?
2. Can you get hot in the playoffs?
All the rest is just noise imo.
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The other question is can the players stay healthy for the second half?
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With the Announcement that Harper will be manning 1B (at least some of the time) the subsequent moves to come will be interesting.
Harrison doesn’t fit. He actually never fit. If you want to move Schwarber to the DH role to get better D in LF you still need that person to provide league average Offense. Maybe that’s Pache when he gets back or someone they bring in.
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DMAR, Yes… it could be Pache or it could be Rojas. We can afford a little less offense if we have elite defense which these 2 can potentially provide. I think if we improve our defense by playing Rojas in CF, Marsh in LF and Schwarber at DH, it will only help the pitching staff. I also think Turner, Harper and Schwarber will improve in the second half and, if they do, we’ll be fine. This is why I don’t want to give up multiple top prospects for 3 month rentals.
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I think we really need to see Bryce play some 1B to see if he can really do it or not. If he can (and I think he can) that’s great… it will enable Topper to get Schwarber off the field some games and also give Casty and JT a shot at DH now and then. If Bryce is terrible at first, then the options are much more limited.
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That’s a great point Andy. A few teams tried Schwarber at 1B and found out he’s actually worse there than in LF…
In either scenario 1B or 3B depending on where Bohm was inserted has been a black hole and those are positions where you need to get some kind of thump down the stretch and in the playoffs.
Power is deftly absent on this club (16 Rank) and with a 7th rank in Ks that needs to improve.
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Miller listed by Callis as a top 3 steal of the draft.
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Great to hear Jim Callis’ take on the Phillies draft.
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Gents – Noah Song.
Deadline is 7/28 to be on the active roster
Needs 90 days on it or be offered back for the RedSoxs
…
What’s this wrinkle I hear… that the 90 days total can be split across 2 seasons? Interesting, and wondering how exactly that works?
Is he going to make it? This seems like a big middle finger to the BOS
Organization from DD. I can almost be assured that BOS rule 5 draft pick will come against PHI this upcoming year.
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Maybe DD will accept Nick Pivetta back if we can keep Song. Relieve Boston of that headache.
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Tac3….not sure this rule still applies under the latest CBA.
3. If a Selected Player spends at least 90 days on an MLB Active List during the MLB regular season following selection, the player ceases to be a “Selected Player” at the conclusion of the MLB regular season. If time spent on an MLB Active List is less than 90 days in the season following selection, the player remains a Rule 5 Selected Player into the next season, and the player continues to be a Selected Player until he has spent 90 days total on an MLB Active List.
Song’s situation , with his lenghty military comitment and time away from the game, may have been judged as unique and the Phillies may have recd some leewway in his case.
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Nice video of Griff. Stuff is nasty.
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I hope the Phillies will bring him up to the Major Leagues one day soon!!!! I can’t wait to see him pitch when he makes it to the Major Leagues!!
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The BB/9 really hasn’t improved which leads me to believe he is destined for the BP.
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I have never understood the thought process of his walks are too high so let’s put him in the bullpen. IMO if he can’t consistently command his pitches, he can’t pitch in the major leagues. Starter/reliever imo is more determined by # of pitch types that are MLB quality and arm stamina.
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What happens to the surfeit of centerfielders: Marsh, Pache, Muzzioti Rojas and, not to forget, Justin Crawford?
All are young and, perhaps except for Marsh, they are clones of each other: speed, defense and no power.
Some are big prospects (Crawford). Some were great prospects and still have the potential to be excellent first-division regulars (Pache, Marsh). One is here at least temporarily (Rojas) and one appears on the outside looking in except that he’s got a roster spot (Muzziotti). A couple can move to a corner (Pache, Marsh).
I assume one or two go at the trade deadline, though not likely Crawford.
Any ideas?
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I am not trading Rojas after watching him play these few games, unless it’s Ohtani coming back, which I doubt. He is a terrific CF, just so much fun to watch. And, welcome back, Hinkie!! I move Marsh to LF where he is a GG caliber defensive player. I really don’t think we add a bat. I think we add a SP, and maybe another BP arm.
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Matt, moving Marsh and/or Pache to LF is a natural. Parting with Muzzzioti is not a loss given the alternatives available. That leaves Rojas and Crawford to battle it out for centerfield. I assume that if they are open to trading a young outfielder it would be Rojas as they have committed to Crawford as their their top draft pick last year. Having said that, I also see Rojas as a lot of fun. I’ve seen Crawford play twice this year and can see him as the future centerfielder. Tough choice.
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Dont discount Boyd who plays Center with Crawford, he is holding his own at the same age, with a high obp,
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Rocco, good point. Boyd has looked good in the little I’ve had the chance to see him play, both at the plate and in the field. Ran down and caught a sinking line drive to his left — almost in centerfield — while playing left on Sunday. He appears to already have the power at the plate that we are told Crawford will grow into.
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Frank…let us not forget high draft choice corner OFers like Ethan Wilson, Gabe Rincones and maybe even Jordan Viars…..all with chances of developing into MLB players.
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If the Phillies do not QO Rhys, and Aaron Nola decides to reject his QO, which I am sure the Phillies will extend to him, then maybe they can finally jump into the Japanese market, with the money they would save on those two contracts
Twenty-five year old RHP Yoshinobu Tamammoto will be generating plenty of interest this off-season.
He may be a little shorter than desired for a pitcher, but he does possess the stuff to be a winner.
The Sox and Mets are two teams right now reportedly showing interest in him.
Maybe its time the Phillies actually engaged into the Japanese market.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Japanese Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com
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Yamamoto’s ERA, K, BB, WHIP numbers are stunning. He’s also Whitey Ford size, so height is not a disqualification.
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Thank you, Matt.
Romus … Phillies should be building bridges to Roki Sasaki in 2026. A generational talent!
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Hinkie….to tell you the truth, wish Middleton would be more involved in the Japanese market.
I look at these Japanese pitchers that have made pretty significant dents in MLB over the last 20 years ….. Shohei Ohtani…Yu Darvish…Hideo Nomo…Hiroki Kuroda… Koji Uehara… Masahiro Tanaka….Hisashi Iwakuma…Kazuhiro Sasaki…Daisuke Matsuzaka…., and not a one with Philadelohia ties……are we not a large market team like the Yankees, Sox, Mets, Ragers, Angels et al!
For the life of me, I do not understand the reluctance to go into that market for pitching.
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It’s certainly past time to land one, but in the defense of the Phillies, I believe they have shown strong interest before but they Japanese players usually prefer the West coast, and if not, then NYY/BOS. PHI doesn’t make it to the world stage imo. Will see. Japan has a lot of talent, and I think a fair amount want to stay in the league, it’s a lot more excitement for sure. I’d love to see the Phils sign some players from there. There routines from such a young age are all in, all day. So you know they are fundamentally sound at the bare minimum. Add on the actual talent and you got something.
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Agree, Romus. I’ve been pitching the Hinkie “hire Iron Chef Masaharu Morimoto as Director of Clubhouse Food Services” for forever.
Crickets 🦗🦗🦗🦗
AJ Preller hired Shohei Ohtani’s former trainer a couple of years before the two-way superstar headed to MLB. It didn’t help the Padres land him. But you gotta love the A+ effort/thinking out of the box.
BTW … I do give the Phillies mad props for developing their footprint in Korea. They’re doing as good a job there as any team. Hao-Yu Lee and Pan Wen-Hui are top prospects.
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Hinkie……yes, at least make an effort at it.
Granted West Coast teams may have a built-in advantage with their locations….but that did not stop the Yanks, Mets, Sox and Rangers from landing big name pitchers.
Oh……Hao-Yu Lee and Pan Wen-Hui …Taiwanese
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You’re right, Romus. Hao-Yu Lee and Pan Wen-Hui are from Taiwan. Lin An-Ko was another Taiwanese player the Phils were front-runners to sign 2 or 3 years ago. He ultimately chose to play in Asia. He was a 1st round pick in the CPBL.
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Adam Duvall could likely be had for not much in prospect capital. He would give you an upgrade in defense in LF and allow Kyle more time at DH assuming Bryce can play 1B everyday and play it adequately.
Teoscar Hernandez is another name. He’s in Seattle and on an expiring $14 mil contract. They may take Harrison back just for the $ swap.
Harrison is going to be gone one way or the other.
Sosa will be the IF Utility guy and Pache will end up the 4th OF.
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Very good names, DMAR, and I would be interested in Duvall if for no other reason than to kjeep him from the Braves, who I think will be in on him. Who do you guys feel is a legitimate option for us as a SP?
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I don’t know if its legit or not but I would love to have Stroman…
I just love the way he competes on the mound and if the Cubs aren’t going to extend him and the Phillies can’t get to a number with Nola he’s perfect.
I’m worried Painter is going to need TJ before he ever throws an MLB inning.
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DMAR…I am with you on Painter. Phillies delayed the timeframe with Seranthony for awhile a few years ago befoe he went under the knife. wasted about 6 months or more in down-time.
Maybe they have tried PRP….worked for Nola in Sep/Oct 2016.
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Painter is still VERY young and TJ surgery is not a guarantee for full recovery. Some pitchers are never the same. I have no problem with them being overly conservative.
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The % of pitchers…mostly under 24/25 that throw hi-heat that have required TJ is now approaching 35%…..granted it has its downsides; the recovery often takes more than a year, some pitchers don’t return as strong as they were before, and like any surgery, there are risks.
In an rare case, a George Mason pitcher who’d attended high school in Salisbury, MD died following complications from Tommy John surgery.
Although Tommy John surgery only makes sense for throwing athletes (if the average person tore their UCL, it’s unlikely surgery would be needed), it’s not limited to MLB.
A 2015 study found that 57% of those who undergo Tommy John are between the ages of 15 and 19 and more than 30 pitchers drafted in the 2021 MLB draft ( Andrew Painter’s draft class)….almost 9% that signed pro contract, had already had the surgery.
The increase in Tommy John in recent years is primarily because of overuse — simply throwing too hard and too often — starting from a young age.
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I like Duvall idea. What about Justin Turner? Or idoes that cause roster problems defensively? Probably.
Stroman is a big move. Defensively gonna cost multiple top 10 prospects from Phills org.
To me I wanna KEEP:
2 of the 3 top pitchers
Bergolla
Crawford
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At Trenton guy – I hear you on Bergolla. I watch him every day. I think he is going to be a very promising prospect ! Even now, they have pushed him.
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On Matt Winkleman’s site I just saw that 11th round pick Kehden Hettiger signed for $400, 000 which is $250,000 over slot.
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I think he was committed to Oregon so it would have taken a lot to get him away from that…
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I think Boston will keep Duvall. With each day they seem to be improving their wildcard goal. Meanwhile I think the best OF available is Teoscar Hernandez who would be an absolute beast in CBP. He has disappointed in Seattle and is a free agent at year end. Plus Gerry DiPoto the GM is trade happy. Watch out if Atlanta gets him ! In CBP I could see Teoscar hitting 15 HR in the second half with more games at home than on the road – left. But his defense isn’t the best….
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Now that Harper is at 1B it appears…..Schwarber to DH…..Hernandez will go to LF….has to be ticks better than Schwarber out there.
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I would say defensively Kyle/Teoscar are about the same maybe Hernandez is slightly better by the metrics.
Not that Schwarber could hit much worse but some players don’t adjust well to a DH only role.
I guess it depends on your line of sight. Is it just make the playoffs and hope last year happens again? Or is it to build a team that can actually take down some of the best teams in baseball: Braves, Dodgers, Rays and Rangers?
I think backing into the playoffs as we did last season then getting all the way to the WS happens maybe once every 5 years or so.
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Well they both are far rom Gold Glove guys.
Teoscar’s career DRS is a minus 20 and Schwarber’s is a minus 46.
Though he does give you a pretty decent RHB in the line-up
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Matt Winkleman’s spreadsheet shows Aidan Miller signing for 3.1 M
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Slightly over-slot.
Great news….hope he starts playing soon.
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Yes… $131,000 over slot. I’m glad he signed quickly and I too hope he starts playing soon. I saw a local news piece on him and, in his interview, he seems like a very well spoken and professional young man. I will be pulling for him for sure!
Here’s the link…
https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/sports/2023/07/13/mitchell-high-s-aidan-miller-selected-in-first-round-of-mlb-draft-
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Ok thanks for that.
He could be in the booth with Tom Mccarthy and John Kruk for tonight’s game for a brief talk…then after the game fly out to CLW to the Complex.
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This guy is another Gopher fireballer……fastball that averages 98 mph with running action…..a 70 fastball rating…….control 35, ouch.
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The pregame last night showed him taking BP at CBP. One thing that stood out, because he was wearing shorts, is that his legs look like tree trunks.
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That the way Ron Cey was build if i remember him right
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Ron Cey I believe they called the Penguin. He had short legs and a long torso. Aidan is much taller LOL
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Man I hope he is not like Ron Cey in stature. Cey is the 1 out of 100 that could play at that stature.
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Ron Cey was 5 10 Aidan is 6 2
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So within a few short hours I’ve my last post yesterday the entire calculus changes with the announcement that Bryce will not play 1B LOL
Hall is really letting his opportunity slip through his fingers like a drippy castle at the Jersey shore
Schwarber makes a dynamic catch in LF but Marsh has his Waze app turned off and takes an incredibly bad route to a the ball over his head.
3 Errors and they still come out with the W
.
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I haven’t seen this announcement. Where is it from. It definitely changes things. I’ve been disappointed in Hall.
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Phillies prospects seem to have a goid streak get the opportunity, get hurt and lose the opportunity, i.e. David Downs, Mike Anderson, Aaron Altherr, Dylan Cozens, Mickey Moniak, Derrick Hall, Scott Kingery, etc.
Probably a lot more but that is what I can think of right now.
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DMAR….Cleveland was the word I heard for Harper to first base …now has that changed also?
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I was watching 6ABC yesterday around 5:45 and Topper was being interviewed I swore I heard him say he was not ready and may not be ready this season…
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Think he was talking about Painter 🙂
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I don’t understand why people think Marsh is some kind of really good defensive CF. Watching him the past year he seems very average to me. The ball last night that hit towards the bottom of the fence is caught by Rojas and Pache. Easily. Marsh may (or may not) be some kind of superior defensive LF, but not in CF.
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Rojas missed a similarly hit ball on Saturday. So, you can’t really make the claim that he catches last night’s ball easily.
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Agreed. They should cut off 1″ of hair every time he makes a bone headed play like that one last night.
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According to the Phillies FB page they have recommended Painter undergo Tommy John surgery.
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Lot of hoping Painter wouldn’t need to get the surgery, but he couldn’t avoid it. In retrospect, you wish they wouldn’t have wasted half a season. He’s most likely out until 2025.
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Im thinking he next throws in Fall instructs 2024
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Shame they could not foresee this 4 months ago.
If all goes well he will be pitching in 12/15 months.
Just hope it is not another issue like Kevin Gowdy’s from a few years ago.
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Huge mistake on someone’s part but for all we know Andrew may not have wanted to go this route right away…
I think he will be more a Zach Wheeler story than a Gowdy story..
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DMAR….hope so also.
Maybe it ia Grade Two UCL sprain (partial tear) vs Grade 3 UCL sprain…which is a complete tear.
Sometimes I would think HS pitchers coming out throwing hi-90s, should get initial PRP treatments before they start their professional careers
Do not know if that is a frutiful endeavor.
It seems for some young pitchers, who satrt throwing hi-heat in HS, the UCL gradually begins the fraying process.
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How about Rojas, Hall, Falter & minor league prospect for Moniak.
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Watched him last night vs the Yanks and German…he is swinging the bat really well.
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LOL that was funny Denny…
I was watching too Romus he looks good. Not sure we would have ever got that from him. As many have mentioned he needed to move on from the expectations here to have any kind of success.
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Good example in what not to do at deadline. Sanchez is a good as Thor was last year. Why give up a to prospect for a rental? Think back to Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson or John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander
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Crap…Tommy John for Painter
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It’s a shame and I didn’t want to count on him for this season to begin with. I don’t know how much trying to learn a new pitch hurt him. I wanted another SP in the off season. Hoping he fully recovers and in the meantime we now have to get a SP by the deadline. Sanchez has no command tonight and getting banged around. I don’t know who we get, but we need someone!
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Painter’s situation is neither a shame nor a mistake.
When his partial tear was first diagnosed, ALL possible remedies were discussed. Options were discussed with the player and his agent (Boras).
There are 2 ligaments involved. One has only a 10% chance of getting better with the rest regimen they tried. The other has a 70% chance of improvement. Painter’s ligament was the one that had a 70% chance of improving with rest.
You NEVER undergo a surgical procedure if you don’t have to. The right decision was made. That it didn’t work this time is unfortunate.
There is no shame in taking the path chosen. Nor was there a mistake made.
The medical stuff in the third paragraph may not be 100% accurate. It’s been months since I had this discussion.
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I actually brought this up with my orthopedic surgeon today and made a comment about how my baseball team wasted 4 months not getting this kid TJ surgery. He quickly corrected me and suggested that without knowing the details, it’s likely they knew exactly what they were doing as surgery is almost never the first or second option. He said the likelihood is a) the original issue did not respond to treatment and rest and now requires surgery (60% likelihood), b) the imaging showed something new now I.e. something got worse (39%), or c) the medical team of a multi-billion $ sports franchise misjudged a situation involving one of their most valuable assets.
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Finally, plausible answers for Painter’s condition instead of “the Phillies messed up”.
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The issue with Painter’s UCL tear is that he had a proximal UCL partial tear, which is the one that has the 70% chance or so of healing without operative intervention. As a physician, I agree wholeheartedly with Jim, as there is NEVER a guaranteed outcome to surgery.
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jim, I think it’s a shame that a 19 year old kid, with the potential that Painter has, needs TJ surgery, and has lost this season, and next season. And, while there are examples of guys coming back as good or better, it is not a guarantee. So, I feel bad for him, and I feel bad for us, as fans, who are without our top prospect.
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Brandon Marsh is a very energetic, exuberant, exhilrating and often times an eccentric player………right out of the Jimmy Piersall playbook.
Like to see him braid his beard in a Capt Jack Sparrow fashion.
That will create a little levity,
and more than likely turn some heads in the media and the commissioner’s office.
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That would be something to see…
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Rome’s, …..maybe in corporate some firecrackers in those braids like Blackbeard and teach him to “run the bases backwards on his home rubs, huh.”
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Stop playing Sosa at 3B he’s not that good over there and his 669 OPS is not worth the bad defense.
Turner’s 688 OPS is atrocious…figure it out somebody please. I don’t want to hear first year new city big contract excuses. Lived it last season with Castellanos and I’m over it.
Give Ellis more of a look at 1B. Of all the guys we’ve run out there this season his 857 OPS is better than the others. He has 6 BBs to 7Ks. Hall 2 BBs to 16 Ks. That or bring in a legit Major League 1B.
Last but not least someone please get in Thompson’s face and have Stott lead off and have Harper 3rd.
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DMAR…agree about Sosa….he is inconsistent in the field. His bat has cooled. He may have been over-exposed.
I do think the plan right now for this weekend is Harper at first, and Bohm back to third.
My guess it will be permanent for Harper at first…..he probably will get to like to talk to all his buddies at first base.
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DMAR – No way they take Schwarber out of the lead off spot now. He’s hitting taters like crazy and maybe his avg creeps up. Remember him and Realmuto carried this offense (Stott to but not power wise) last year in 2nd half while Harper was out.
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Sosa’s error to start the inning was really big as errors to start an inning usually are. They just change the entire inning for the most part. I think the Brewers also made an error to start the inning on a ball that Bohm hit.
Those errors just change the complexion of the game. Sanchez was shaky after that but overall he’s done a really good job. I hope they keep him at number 5 the rest of the way. He’s done better than Synderguaard did.
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In 7 starts (SSS), Sanchez has the best WHIP and ERA of all the starters. He’s pitching like a 3 WAR pitcher. He has absolutely done his job. The Phillies are not losing because of Sanchez. Sanchez is winless because of poor run support and errors.
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That Mead trade seems to fluctuate every year.
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So true!
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I don’t think Sanchez is enough, ciada. Not saying he hasn’t been ok, but his command was off yesterday, and I believe that DD is going to add a SP, especially after the painter news. What to do about the right handed OF I thought that we would definitely go after, IDK. Especially since Bryce hasn’t tried to play 1B yet. And, what was that AB vs Milner yesterday?
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Sanchez may not be enough but if you want a capable 5th starter, even a rental is going to cost the Phillies big.
What would you give up for Lucas Giolito?
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I’d be all in on Giolito.
Would Crawford/Lee/Wilson/Baker get it done?
or
McGarry or Abel/Lee/any minor league OF not named Crawford or Rojas/+ throw in?
My goal is to hold on to Painter + Abel or McGarry + Bergolla + Rojas and/or Crawford.
I dunno where other might put him but I think Miller is in the conversation for #3 prospect in system.
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Let the record show that I’m perfectly ok with Sanchez as the 5th starter.
I would keep Painter/Abel/Crawford. I would try to make Rojas the centerpiece of the Giolito deal, else I would make McGarry the centerpiece.
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As a 5th starter, who will not start in the postseason, Sanchez is just fine. Look around the majors, very few teams have a 5th starter superior to CS. We go as far as our 8 figure players take us(BH,TT, NC, KS, ZW, AN, JTR,CK,TW).
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That is an excellent observation Eagleye
This team can play some really ugly baseball…
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Wow – it’s been forever since I posted.
A few thoughts.
I’d have to say that, of all the outcomes that we could have had for the big 3 minor league pitchers, what we got is in the bottom third of those outcomes. The silver lining is that their long-term outcomes are still all viable, but for this year, there’s very little chance of a contribution.
As for Marsh, he turned out a lot better than I expected. He’s a very solid fielder and base runner, but his hit tool and plate discipline are well better than expected. If he can develop into a 15-20 homer a year player, you’re looking at a 3-5 WAR player, which is great (he’s really a Charlie Blackmon type player, which is pretty fine praise).
I do, however, get nervous about the trade deadline. While DD knows what he is doing, he always seems to me to be a bit too eager or willing to dump really fine prospects, and sometimes for not all that much in return. We will see.
Finally, for seemingly the first time, this organization is getting good at identified older prospects with some upside. They have stacked the AA and AAA rosters with some guys who could end up being decent major leaguers, although I don’t see where those guys are going to be given much of a chance to play in Philly. What to do with guys like Muzziotti, Wilson and Podkul is a bit puzzling.
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Been to Readig a few times this year, Pdkul is interesting and doing well at LHV in his early AAA days.
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Move Sosa bring up Kingery.
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Sosa is out of options, that’s how the Phillies were able to trade for him in the first place. So either the Phillies trade him (for an extreme lotto ticket) or they cut him.
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You are able to DFA him…..and if no one puts a claim in for him in 7 days, then he can be assigned to LHV or as free agent go where he wants.
I just cannot see many teams jumping at the chance to ink him right now..
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I mean I know I called out Sosa for his 3B play and as others are saying Sanchez is just fine as a 5th. Neither player is the issue. Offense is the major issue
24th rank in BBs
17th rank HRs
15th rank in Runs
7th rank Ks
Oswing % they are probably 1st I didn’t look it up
That’s not a WS Caliber profile…
I’m not even sure a trade fixes that.
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I forgot to add only 3 teams spend more than we do the Mets, Yankees and Padres….YAY
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Baltimore is 29th…and they could end up in the World Series if things for all in place for them..
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/
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Mike Elias was hired away from the Astos in November of 18. He’s done a really nice job rebuilding that franchise and culture. They should be really good for many years to come.
They have a heck of a farm system and $$$ to spend where needed and warranted.
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DMAR…. guess the only soution…fire the hitting coach! (tic)
Now, that would be the going opinion in the past.
These $20M (or plus) AAV guys….all five…. need to be more productive.
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FWIW:
The big five position $$$ guys…..JTR, Bryce, Kyle S., Trea T. and Nick C. have collectively played in 428 games before today,
……their collective oWAR is 8.0.
Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts together, have played in 189 games, together, their oWAR is 8.2.
The five Phillies need to step it up, more than a notch or two, over these next 9 weeks or they could miss out on the play-offs.
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You are all correct. After watching this abysmal game, it is on the hitters. We can really look awful. I know Burnes is a real good Pitcher, but we didn’t even have a good AB. I also was critical of Sosa and Danchez yesterday, but, again, that was on our lack of hitting with RISP, and today we were just flat. And, boy do we look bad when we are flat.
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Phils option Hall to Lehigh Valley and recall Yairo Munoz, who has been hitting AAA hitting hard. He will provide more flexibility in the infield and maybe more punch at the plate. Meanwhile, move room for Harper at 1B.
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Munoz isn’t with LHV, how about Jake Cave?
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The Australian version of Darick Hall is coming thru the sytem ….Rixon Wingrove.
Mashed his 14th HR with JS…..another big strong likeable player with plenty of pop. Last two season in 153 games , 26 HRs.
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Weston Wilson is hitting homers at LHV with a decent average. He could be an Adam Duvall but younger and more versatile, and cheaper.
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Denny……yeah, hope the Phillies can ht on a few late bloomer oldies like the Dodgers did with Justin Turner and Max Muncy.
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Cave played 1B last night
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Again, no chance we get Ohtani, but looking at these trade proposals is fun https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-potential-trade-deadline-deals
Phils are not listed but it seems that the pattern is 2 top 100 prospects and 2 others in the top 10 for the system. So a comparable deal for the Phils would be:
– Abel
– Crawford
– Lee
– De La Cruz
Would you do that deal?
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Push come to shove I’d pull the trigger….BUT I don’t feel like that’s a competitive offer in relation to what other teams will offer.
Abel has talent but has struggled. Crawford is so young and so small right now. This package doesn’t seem legit enough. The Angels haven’t won anything during Trouts and Ohtanis tenure. They need to win this trade. Overwhelmingly win it. Nothing the Phills have to offer I think delivers that to the Angels.
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I agree, the offer is too light. Abel is top 100, but he’s struggling with his command. Crawford is also top 100 but he’s still in Clearwater and has no power (yet). Lee has talent but has struggled at times at JS, and DLC is filler at this point.
The point is, if you have to get Ohtani, you have to WOW the Angels. I think Baltimore could do it (basically give up anybody not named Jackson Holliday). A package of Grayson Rodriguez, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad would be a good start. I know my buddy, the Blue Jays fan, would liquidate his minor league system for Ohtani, but they don’t have the elite talent outside of Tiedemann.
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Yeah, pull the trigger. Spend more $$$ and still get shut out by AAAA teams or by 4.80 ERAs.
Grow some talent.
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Speculative proposals and what really hapens on trade day are two different animals. I have seen too many times in the past were the exchange is a lot lower than I would have expected.
In this case Ohtani is a two- month rental……and more than likely will end up signing a LTC with a West Coast team…more than likely the Dodgers.
Any GM from the Central to East part of the country may have to seriously think it thru before he depletes his farm system.
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Ohtani is a true difference maker. He’s already close to 7 WAR right now. You figure he’s still good for at least 3 WAR for the last 2 months of the season and that’s not including the damage he does in the postseason for a contender. You will have to pay up for that.
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I just hope it is not the Phillies paying up for that.
Now come Nov…..money saved, from not signing Nola to a LlTC and not offernig Hoskins’ a QO…I would start there in trying to lure Ohtani to Philly, while also sacrificing a 2nd and 5th round pick in the Rule 4.
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💯 agree with Romus. Some of these trade proposals I’ve read on the internet are insane/laughable. Ohtani is the best player on the planet … but … he is a rental. The best comp for an Ohtani trade is actually the deal the Nats & LADs consummated in 2021.
Dodgers got: (2 months of) Max Scherzer & (1.5 years of) Trea Turner Nationals got: Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, a lottery ticket, and a non-prospect
Ruiz and Gray were LA’s top 2 prospects, and were each ranked in the 50s in all MiLB.
For those of you who rely on WAR … Ohtani is at 6.8 bWAR this season.
Sherzer and Turner were a combined 6.2 bWAR at the time of the trade.
Of course, the Dodgers were getting a lot more value than whatever club acquires Ohtani because Turner was under team control for another full season.
A Phillies deal for Ohtani would look something like what v1 posted. It would be headlined by Mick Abel, followed with either Crawford or Rojas , and a lottery ticket like Micah Ottenbreit. Dombrowski is aggressive, but I’d be mildly surprised if he pulled the trigger on that.
A team on the west coast or maybe even the NYYs might pay a little more because they’d be buying time to sell him on their club when he becomes a FA. Ohtani is not signing a LTC here so that wouldn’t apply to the Phillies.
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After the trade deadline there are 55 games remaining for the Phillies. Most 11 starts for a starter and with 11 off days, it might be at least 8 or 9, or less. Not worth it for maybe a+2 net use bullpen for 5 th start if needed.
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Cave in LF tonight, Bryce at 1B
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Bryce Harper wasn’t going to stay at RF as he aged, his range was slipping and he was dropping balls. He had an elite arm for RF which will be missed but he was positive dWar in only 4 years of his 12 year career. DH was the likely future option but if he can play a competent 1B, that would be good because the Phillies needed to get Schwarber out of LF.
1B was Hall’s for the taking but he pooched it. And the Phillies don’t have Ryan Howard in the minors so if Bryce thinks he can do it, let’s see what happens.
And props for Jake Cave for going to Lehigh and ripping it up. He deserves to be back.
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That’s kind of rough on Hall, he didn’t screw it up. He got hurt and had a very short window to heal and prove himself. Hall could still end up being a viable major leaguer, although maybe not for the Phillies.
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It won’t be with the Phillies if Harper is playing 1B.
Baseball is an unforgiving game and you have to take advantage of opportunities when they come along. Hall will soon to be 28 and let’s face it, he doesn’t have position flexibility. He’s only a 1B. Not too many teams will a strictly backup 1B.
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and Klaw out with his new top 60. Crawford at 28 with a glowing report on how the power is coming; rave about his BP at the all star game, etc. “Might be the player his dad was supposed to be.”
Abel and Painter honorable mentions
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I’m really shocked by that statement because Carl Crawford had a nice career (39.1 WAR). If Justin comes even close to that, I’ll take that any day.
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I imagine because Carl had a barely-above-average offensive profile for his career. He had a pretty good peak, but it was so short that it was quickly overshadowed by his steep decline.
Pretty much the only tool the elder Crawford didn’t have was arm strength. But that “only” translated to a high average with a barrage of steals and good defense. The power and OBP never truly materialized. If they had, he would have been a yearly contender for MVPs. So maybe that’s what KLaw sees in Justin.
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Very happy to read the report on Crawford. He has had a terrific season. Griff and Mick Abel have fallen well short, so far this season, of what I had hoped for. Last night’s game was another exercise in failing to score with RISP. And our guys batting 1and 2 would have the worst OBP in the League except for the Royals.
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McGarry may have turned it around in July…his last three starts have been plus….17 inn. pitched, three earned runs….and the last 13 innings, two walks….which was his sore point in the past.
Maybes cutting back a little on the FB velo he was able to garner more command.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mcgarr000gri&type=pgl&year=2023
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Let me echo that senitment.
I actually watched McGarry’s last start at AA. It was far better than I have ever seen him pitch. It’s difficult to overstate just how good his stuff is – frankly, it’s elite or near elite. When he fills up the strike zone, he’s lethal. In terms of the pure stuff, it’s pretty close to a younger Max Scherzer. Really, it’s that good. Now, Scherzer developed plus command for those pitches, but even if his command becomes average, he’s a #3. If it becomes good, his ceiling is really high.
If they trade him, to, that’s a really bad sign. A bad sign that this team will continue to be on this just above average treadmill, where we are not replacing expensive, older players with younger ones.
Watch the Orioles. Watch the Braves. Watch the D-Backs. Why are they good? Good, young talent. You can’t beat it and good organizations never ignore it.
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Romus, I am currently torn. I think we need help, a bat, a SP, BP help? but I still like our top guys a lot. Obviously Painter is injured and not getting traded, but I still don’t want to move Abel or McGarry, even though I had hoped for more this season, or Rojas. As you said Griff has pitched better lately. Muzziotti seems to be the guy without a future here, but I don’t know how much he brings back. I know DD is aggressive, and doesn’t mind trading prospects, but I do not give up too much.
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matt…….other GMs know the situation with the Phillies or for that matter any other club…..Phillies have vets with big contracts, that are here for awhile yet…and youngsters ready to be MLB players.
I do not think position players like Muzziotti, Darick Hall, or even Johan Rojas have tremendous return value in a trade.
All one has to do is look what Dave D. gave up to obtain Cristian Pache, just 16 months ago a top 15 MLB prospect.
So he may have to let go of an Abel or a McGarry to get something of value in return.
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The old saying is you can never have enough pitching and it is true. I would not trade Abel or McGarry just like I would not have traded Brown last year. All of a sudden you don’t get one pitch from Painter for two years and McGarry was hurt earlier this year. Pitchers are so fragile that you don’t trade them even when it “seems’ you have a surplus. Because you never have a surplus.
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And I missed Griff’s start last night, 7 scoreless with 10 Ks. Romus, you are correct, and that is why I am torn. Always believed that a deal at the deadline boosts the club. But the list if guys I don’t trade makes it tough. That is a big reason I am not a GM. Along with a hundred other reasons!
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Dombrowski has shown in the past, he will take the risks on prospects in a trade, to get what he feels will make the difference for the team now.
Yes I would hate to have to art with Abel or McGarry…..or even for that matter Alex McFarlane.
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Yeah, this is the issue with DD. You might get another WS run, or he might empty the cupboard and you’ll become the Tigers (or even the Red Sox after their last WS). Now, he does know what he’s doing – I’ll never say that he doesn’t – but he often gets the wrong side of deals or long-term contracts in terms of VALUE and it can be painful to watch.
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Another terrible AB by Turner with a runner at 3rd, 1out. Looks at changeup over the plate and Ks on a slider out of the zone. And Castles can’t pick him up with a 2 out hit because.. hard to watch us waste good Pitching .
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You are absolutely right, Matt13 that Turner’s AB with a runner on 3rd and one out was abysmal. You have to put the ball in play. But, just like with Castellanos after his terrible first contract year last year, it is too early to give up on Trea Turner. He was far from alone at having horrible at bats yesterday. He was almost alone in getting a hit. We do have to hope, though, that unlike Ryan Howard, he doesn’t get injured.
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Agree with you, Iheart. Not giving up on Turner at all. I just want these guys, and he isn’t alone. To change whatever their approach is with runners on. He had to put the ball in play, not look at pitches or guess what was coming and get fooled. The best pitch of the AB was the first one, so he Ks on a pitch in the dirt. Be aggressive, if the first pitch is hittable, swing. Same AB vs Milwaukee with the bases loaded. A slider that broke less than sharply and should have been clobbered, he watched. K’d on a slider that started as a ball and kept going further and further outside.
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Maybe I’m just too analytically minded, but personally if I’m managing a team and my 1-3 hitters can’t score a single run after a lead-off double, I’d move them out of the top of the lineup.
Oh, and I also wouldn’t pinch hit for the guy who’s gotten on base 2 out of the team’s 3 total times on the day.
For as magical as many of his moves were last year, Thomson feels like he’s stealing a paycheck this year. His lineup can’t buy runs and all he does is shrug his shoulders and plug in a different bench bat at the number 9 spot.
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It was inevitable that some of these major contracts would be a disaster. The Nationals did the right call by letting Anthony Rendon walk to the Angels for 7 years, $245M. 4 years in, Rendon has given the Angels 3.2 WAR total. However, the Nationals inexplicably gave Stephen Strasburg 7 years, $245. 4 years in, Strasburg has given the Nationals 5.1 WAR total, with all of it coming in 2019. And Strasburg is still injured.
Is Rendon’s contract hampering the Angels? Could be. It seems likely that Ohtani will walk from the Angels.
Is Strasburg’s contract hampering the Nationals? Doesn’t matter as they are rebuilding.
The Yankees are in last place and their fans are pissed. And the Yankees have their share of major contracts:
Aaron Judge 9 years, $360M: 2.4 WAR total
Gerrit Cole 9 years, $324M: 14.4 WAR total
Giancarlo Stanton, 10 years, $265M (which includes the $30M thrown in by the Marlins): 9 WAR total
Judge was performing well before his toe injury. Cole has been good for the Yankees but Wheeler has been better for the Phillies (17.1 WAR total). Stanton has been a disaster.
And this brings us to the Phillies. The Phillies’ worst contract so far has been Ryan Howard’s 5 year, $125M. Howard gave the Phillies -4.8 WAR. Yes, negative. The Phillies have 2 major contracts on their books:
Trea Turner 11 years, $300M 1.2 WAR total
Bryce Harper 13 years, $330M 15.9 WAR total
So far, Harper’s contract has just been ok. The Phillies are paying him to be a 3+ WAR player and so far, he’s done that with a MVP award 5 years into his deal. OTOH, Turner has been terrible and you could argue that his free swinging ways have cost the Phillies a bunch of games. As much as I hate to admit it, his glove has been positive but inconsistent and he’s been like that his entire career.
And this brings us to Ohtani, who is going to get paid. Hard to see the Yankees taking on another mega contract when they already have 3 of them. The Dodgers will be involved, but you have to figure that the Giants, Mariners and even the Red Sox might get involved. Will the Phillies be in the market for another big contract? I hope not. That $500M contract could be a disaster when his body eventually breaks down. And it will.
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And yet the Orioles with the 29th payroll in the league….are doing what many of the big payroll clubs cannot do……so far, win consistently.
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Looks like Phillies have given up on Francisco Morales, with his release from the Iron Pigs. I thought he had a chance of becoming a very good releiver.
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I think you are right, Romus, even though his current stats are bad it seemed like Morales had potential. Maybe the writing was on the wall for him when ( if I remember correctly) they DFA’d him earlier in the year, however he was able to be moved to Lehigh Valley. But, why do you think they released him now? Who do you think gets his spot?
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I(heart)…..not sure why he was released and maybe they are bringing up another reliever from Reading.
There is Brett Schulze who is doing very well.
And I know Orion Kekering was having a great season, Reading is more of a challenge for him right now…but he was promoted already twice and this last time a few weeks ago
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Thank you Romus! I was wondering because you would think that Noah Song’s spot will be available, one way or another, within a week
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Correct….they may want to have Noah Song up soon and see what they have in him against MLB hitters.
Then there is still two other 40 relievers down at LHV that could be up for the stretch drive …Brogdon and Seranthony .
Can never have enough pitching.
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I think that after pitching in the system since 2017 and his control getting worse, if anything, they may have decided that he would never have the control and command to pitch well at the major league level. In this age of analytics, they may have spotted something in their analyses that led to the conclusion that he was not fixable.
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I really want Pache or Rojas in CF. I like Marsh overall, but he takes bad routes, has brain cramps resulting in drops, and he doesn’t command the field. That single run last night, in my view, was caused by him not taking charge like a good CF should. I know Stott is great going out to get flies, but ones like that are the CF’s job and he really has to let everyone else know that.
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Agree Robin. Rojas at 22 should not be a bench or role player he should play everyday and if they don’t have the confidence in him yet to do that (perfectly understandable) send him back down.
If Harper can handle the load at 1B let that ride and improve CF and LF D at the same time.
Marsh is definitely better suited for LF than CF al beit you’d like to get more pop from your corners than you’re currently getting.
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We could all commiserate about the “ball that dropped into no man’s land” but we really need to look at the big picture. The Phillies payroll for their 26 man roster is $243 million. The first five players in the lineup make up $111 million of that number. That is 45% of the total payroll. If those guys don’t hit and hit in the clutch, this team that is number 3 in salary in all of baseball will not make the playoffs.
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I used the Luxury Tax Salary for the five position players,
and came up with a little more. But got your point.
Totally unacceptable.
Bryce Harper ……..$25.4M
Trea Turner …………$27.3M
J.T. Realmuto……….$23.1M
Nick Castellanos……$20M
Kyle Schwarber……..$19.7M
………………………………$115.5
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And yet, pretty much everyone on this site applauded loudly after each signing, myself included (for many of them at least).
This list is more reason why this team needs to focus on developing its prospects and not trading too many of them away, especially those with a lot of upside like McGarry.
My hope is that, if there’s an important trade, the guy who is traded is someone like Orion Kerkering – a very good prospect, but he’s a reliever and they can replace him. It’s not so easy to replace a guy who may be a top 3 starter.
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Agree….and please Dave D…avoid any more ‘Ben Brown’ type trades.
I like to think McGarry and Abel are here to stay….unless Ohtani or Juan Soto are coming to Philly in the exchange.
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It sure is a shame we don’t have a hitter on our team that’s over .300, strikes out less than the average major leaguer, works deep counts better than almost anybody, gets more 2-strike hits than anybody else in baseball, has speed, and even a little bit of power. Someone like that would make an excellent leadoff hitter. If only…
Each day Stott isn’t in the top of the lineup is a freaking baseball crime. It’s bad enough that our best hitter by wRC+ is relegated to hitting 8th. But the fact that Stott is also one of our best hitters, AND he’s an old-head’s wet dream for a leadoff hitter, but is still in the bottom half of the lineup is nuts.
Sending a great message to your young guys there, Thomson. Succeed and you’ll be rewarded a chance to be left on base. Hit .190 and you can have the most PAs on the team.
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DanK….actually when push comes to shove…..the three youngins’ of Stott, Bohm and Marsh are probably better pure hitters than the Fab Five……..they tend to work counts, put balls in play, make contact and hit to the opposite field when it calls for it.
They just do not have the HR pop right now
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I didn’t get to see the game yesterday but from the box score it looks like Harper hit 3rd instead of 4th. A move in the right direction but I won’t be satisfied until Schwarber is out of the LO spot.
I don’t know what Turner’s deal is. Its almost as if he is blind folded up there the pitches he swings at. I’ll stick with him at 2 for a while longer.
Stott
Turner
Harper
Bohm
Schwarber
Realmuto
Castellanos
Marsh
Rojas/Cave Platoon for a while maybe
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I cannot ever recall seeing Turner hitting this poorly at the plate in the past…even when he was in his early years with the Nats.
His O-zone swings has to be the highest in his career.
Sometimes a few bunt attempts down third could help his cause…he has the speed to first to make it interesting for the opposing third basemen.
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When I was running hit camps we always stressed letting the pitch get deep in the zone. Such a simple tactic to practice with both tee and soft toss to create the desired muscle memory response to recognizing pitches.
I was never a big fan of the leg lift approach. Obviously some guys can make it work but its so easy to get your timing out of whack with that.
Once you get comfortable being late hitting gets a little easier because picking up spin gets a lot easier.
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Seriously, it is like he cannot pick up breaking pitches. I admit, I am a Trea Turner fan, and thought his signing was a great move, and I am still a believer that he will get hot. But, some of his ABs are terrible, looking at pitches he should clobber, and striking out on pitches that bounce up there, or start as Balls, and keep getting further away from the plate. I don’t understand it. And, another game like yesterday’s for Jake Cave, and DD may not wait the week to add an OF.
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Oh good. Now we’re sitting Bohm and Marsh on the same day. Nothing inspires confidence in a struggling offense like benching your best hitter, and another young guy that at least hits for decent average and average production. But hey, we’re at least getting Josh Harrison some play time. That’s super important since he’s a bad hitter and defender. Need that in our lives. Plus now we get to have our bottom four hitters all have sub-.590 OPS.
I may be out of hair to pull out before the trade deadline.
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Does Rob Thomson watch the games? Clearly dropped ball in CF and he does nothing. No challenge, no question to the umpires.
He might be a nice guy that the players like but his skills as a manager are limited. Reason he was a bench coach his entire career.
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Agree with 3up. Thomson has not been good. The guy in Northern California is running laps around him. Last night, he not only failed to challenge a dropped fly out (it was obvious Hicks was trying to recover the ball on the ground from his body language … Kyle Schwarber [in the on deck circle] saw it & signaled to the dugout to challenge), but he screwed up in the 8th inning when he didn’t pinch run Marsh for Schwarber. That move would have also prevented the O’s from scoring the go-ahead run in the 9th. Marsh would have caught the Colton Cowser double that Schwarber couldn’t come up with. Not to be overlooked, Thomson’s decision to not start Johan Rojas for over a week is absolutely mind boggling.
But Thomson isn’t the only guy to point fingers at. I’m not sure there’s been another game this year where more guys did more wrong to cause an L.
Trea Turner is drowning. He’s killing the team right now, and needs a night (or two) off.
Craig Kimbrel committed the mortal sin of walking a batter in the 9th inning of a tie game. He exacerbated the mistake by uncorking a wild pitch and sending the go-ahead run into scoring position. Gunnar Henderson eventually made it home when Schwarber failed to make the catch Marsh would have made.
And last, but not least … the Phils probably score more than enough runs to win the contest if only Edmundo Sosa gets the bunt down in the 8th inning. Just inexcusable for him not to be able to bunt the ball.
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Agree that Turner needs some days off, but that also falls on Thomson. So yesterday’s loss is firmly on his shoulders. I’m not saying this to absolve Turner of his abysmal performance or anything, but even 2 errors, 0 hits, and getting ejected aren’t worse than that abomination yesterday.
Sitting 3 starters on the same day, one of whom has been your best hitter and the other two who have been at least league average in favor of THREE players hitting sub-215 is just flat out poor load management. And it wasn’t even against a lefty, so Marsh was sitting for… what, exactly? Because he’s had too many days off already this season so he’s getting winded by playing multiple days in a row? I’m not upset about getting Rojas playing time, but Josh Harrison, Garrett Stubbs, and Jake Cave should never all be starting on the same day. And when Rojas DOES play, Marsh should be in LF. What the hell is the point of having Bryce learn 1B if we’re just gonna keep running Schwarber out there?
Then he misses an obvious challenge which just… how? You literally have your own player telling you to have it looked at, you had extra time because of injury, and you have an entire staff dedicated to this that could have told you the second you asked them that it would be overturned. And then he, of course, challenges a play later that gets upheld. In a vacuum, I don’t mind that he challenged that play because it was important and close enough that you take the shot. But how do you make the one but not the other?
Then, as you mentioned, he doesn’t pinch run for Schwarber. Uh… okay. Then he doesn’t bring him in as a defensive replacement for Schwarber. THEN he doesn’t bring him in as a pinch hitter and instead allows JOSH HARRISON to hit when we’re down to our last 3 outs. His refusal to use Marsh at all actually has me worried that he’s just not reporting an injury. Marsh had to be sick or sore, right? RIGHT??? Because that is the ONLY justification for not making any of those three moves. He also could have hit him for Rojas when we were down to our last out, because that’s a pretty brutal situation for a rookie to be in. But that, at least, is a good learning experience plus Rojas actually has a decent chance of not making an out.
And finally, it’s Sosa’s fault for not getting the bunt down. And I’ll give Thomson the benefit of the doubt (does he really deserve it now, though?). BUT, if he called for that bunt… WHY??? Sosa has 3 career sacrifice bunts and 4 career bunt attempts for hits. Dude probably has less practice bunting than half of the pitchers in baseball still.
I know that people overestimate how much managers are worth. But seeing as there are only so many changes you can make to your roster, watching these dumb moves (and non-moves) day after day just gets so freaking exhausting. It literally feels like he’s secretly letting his old friend Girardi call the shots for him as his revenge for getting fired.
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Have the batboy do the lineup……that is, put all the starter names in a hat and have the batboy draw out the names. Change it up a bit.
And send Rojas down to LHV for about a month, so he at least plays everyday…bring him back up in Sep.
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Let the bat boy handle challenges and player substitutions, too, while we’re at it.
My 8 year old nephew could make those calls at least as well as Thomson has been. Heck, the 5 year old who doesn’t understand baseball at all yet has a decent shot of randomly making better calls than him at this point.
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I think Harper is sometimes a little too aggressive on the base paths.
Everyone likes his aggressiveness,
…..but there are instances where he may need to temper it.
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(Didn’t post before, so trying again. Sorry if it’s a repost being held for moderation, Jim)
Agree that Turner needs some days off, but that also falls on Thomson. So yesterday’s loss is firmly on his shoulders. I’m not saying this to absolve Turner of his abysmal performance or anything, but even 2 errors, 0 hits, and getting ejected aren’t worse than that abomination yesterday.
Sitting 3 starters on the same day, one of whom has been your best hitter and the other two who have been at least league average in favor of THREE players hitting sub-215 is just flat out poor load management. And it wasn’t even against a lefty, so Marsh was sitting for… what, exactly? Because he’s had too many days off already this season so he’s getting winded by playing multiple days in a row? I’m not upset about getting Rojas playing time, but Josh Harrison, Garrett Stubbs, and Jake Cave should never all be starting on the same day. And when Rojas DOES play, Marsh should be in LF. What the hell is the point of having Bryce learn 1B if we’re just gonna keep running Schwarber out there?
Then he misses an obvious challenge which just… how? You literally have your own player telling you to have it looked at, you had extra time because of injury, and you have an entire staff dedicated to this that could have told you the second you asked them that it would be overturned. And then he, of course, challenges a play later that gets upheld. In a vacuum, I don’t mind that he challenged that play because it was important and close enough that you take the shot. But how do you make the one but not the other?
Then, as you mentioned, he doesn’t pinch run for Schwarber. Uh… okay. Then he doesn’t bring him in as a defensive replacement for Schwarber. THEN he doesn’t bring him in as a pinch hitter and instead allows JOSH HARRISON to hit when we’re down to our last 3 outs. His refusal to use Marsh at all actually has me worried that he’s just not reporting an injury. Marsh had to be sick or sore, right? RIGHT??? Because that is the ONLY justification for not making any of those three moves. He also could have hit him for Rojas when we were down to our last out, because that’s a pretty brutal situation for a rookie to be in. But that, at least, is a good learning experience plus Rojas actually has a decent chance of not making an out.
And finally, it’s Sosa’s fault for not getting the bunt down. And I’ll give Thomson the benefit of the doubt (does he really deserve it now, though?). BUT, if he called for that bunt… WHY??? Sosa has 3 career sacrifice bunts and 4 career bunt attempts for hits. Dude probably has less practice bunting than half of the pitchers in baseball still.
I know that people overestimate how much managers are worth. But seeing as there are only so many changes you can make to your roster, watching these dumb moves (and non-moves) day after day just gets so freaking exhausting. It literally feels like he’s secretly letting his old friend Girardi call the shots for him as his revenge for getting fired.
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Don’t think I’d go quite that far in regards to the guy in Northern CA Hinkie. His team is on a losing streak of their own right now.
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There’s more than enough blame to go around on this team. Trea Turner has been brutal. Sosa not getting the bunt down. Schwarber still playing LF.
But if Trea Turner didn’t get ejected, then Sosa wouldn’t have been in that position.
And if Harper says he could play 1B full time, we need to put him there just to get Schwarber out of LF. Schwarber has been a disaster with the glove.
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Think Thomson would have had Turner try to bunt in that situation? I doubt it.
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And yet again, when the Phillies face an AL team starting a pitcher that they’ve never seen before, it doesn’t matter who he is, the Phillies think he’s Max Scherzer.
The last 4 starters they have faced:
Gavin Williams 4 innings 1 run
Tanner Bibee 7 innings 0 runs
Xzavion Curry 3 innings 1 run
Dan Kremer 7 innings 1 run
AFTER their starts against the Phillies, their current WAR is 0.6, 2, 0.9, 0.9.
So outside of Bibee, the other 3 are replacement level and the Phillies couldn’t do anything.
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WAR is an accumulation stat, so not worth bringing that up for half of those pitchers. Williams has 33.2 IP, and Curry 53.1.
But if you wanna argue that they’re not good because of their FIP/peripherals, well that’s a different story…
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All of you are correct. Thomson has not been good at all. Inexcusable to not put Marsh in LF. He preaches fundamentals and we stink at them, and Schwarber’s D is brutal. I am speaking as a Trea Turner fan, and he needs a night off. He can’t make a routine play at SS, his ABs are poor, and he gets ejected because he is so into his head, and so frustrated, he is in desperate need of a mental health day. We cannot hit with RISP, or hit with power, so we have to do the little things. Bunt, substitute properly, not play Stubbs and Cave and Harrison on the same night, field, all of those things. Brutal!
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So in saying all of the above which is all spot on John Middleton should say no trades until you DD and Thomson give me a plan that is going to fix this mess as it is.
Just adding to it likely exacerbates the problem.
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The starting pitching has been decent, they just have to be better. The relievers could be better, but when you have Kimbrel, Strahm, Dominguez, Alvarado, Soto, Hoffman, that’s a decent core.
The offense and the defense are the issue. Moving Schwarber off LF will help a lot. And I guess you could trade for a LF bat, but this requires Harper playing 1B full time. The Phillies essentially have 3 DHs (Castellanos, Schwarber, Harper) and that’s on DD.
Realmuto, Stott, Turner, Marsh, Castellanos, Harper, Schwarber are not going anywhere. Bohm is likely not the answer for a corner IF, but he’s not making much money and his trade value is not great.
I don’t see the Phillies making a drastic trade. Simply put, the players are getting paid the money, they need to play better.
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And, also Guru, Harper has shown he can play 1B. The time to “ease” him into it has come and gone. He needs to play there almost every day. We don’t have the luxury of Schwarber playing LF any more. Let’s, at least, shore up the Defense with Rojas and Marsh.
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I agree 100%. Right now, Harper plays 1B full time, move Schwarber off LF.
I always wanted to let Hoskins walk, but the choice is much easier if Harper can stick at 1B.
The Phillies minor league system is rapidly improving and we need to give some of these guys a shot in the future. We can’t be throwing mega contracts all over the place. And that said, if Nola wants more than $150M, I would give him a QO and just collect the pick when he walks.
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My concern…..John Midleton’s loyalty to his players that the Phillies brought thru their system from the cradle.
1. He will probaly make Dave D offer Rhys a QO in Nov,
…..he will take it as a pillow contract to prove something…that then screws up the positional alignment and stucture again in 2024.
2. May overpay for 6 yrs on a Nola contract.
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The trade deadline is now just one week away.
The Phillies and Cardinals make perfect trade partners. St. Louis has almost everything on Dave Dombrowski’s shopping list. The Cardinals need arms.
Phillies get:
(3.5 years of) Dylan Carlson
Jordan Hicks (rental)
Jack Flaherty (rental)
Cardinals get:
Bailey Falter
Griff McGarry
Noah Song
Andrew Baker
🟢 Yes
🔴 No
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Hinkie…Flaherty could be the next Cardinal phenom pitcher named Michael Wacha/Shelby Miller….not sure his shoulder will hold long term…..shoulder issues and dates: 6/26/22….4/4/22…..8/24/21
This year was the hand…before any shoulder issues could occur.
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1. I don’t feel the Phillies went through all this trouble in drafting and rehabbing and getting Song to the majors just to trade him.
2. Do the Phills need Hicks if Alvarado/Seranthony/Song are all healthy and effective?
What about?
Carlson + Flaherty
For
Falter + Lee + Brogdon + Wilson
At some point the Phillies will have to play or trade all these Outfield prospects.
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Carlson is perfect for the Phillies. Switch-hitter who excels from the right side (.310/.381/.477 lifetime as a RHH), and plays abv avg defense in all 3 OF spots. He’s still just 24 YO, and under team control thru the 2026 season. Can you imagine late inning OF of:
LF Marsh
CF Pache/Rojas
RF Carlson
Dombrowski loves him some power arms. Hicks is that. He’s a rental, but the Phillies need the depth at the back of their pen. Kimbrel has blown a save and a tie in his last two outings. Alvarado & Ser-Ant’ny have missed time with arm woes.
Flaherty is mostly insurance, but the Phillies could also use a 6 man rotation at times to keep Wheeler/Nola/Ranger more fresh the postseason.
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BTW … Noah Song is #1 on the Hinkie Most Likely To Be Traded List. Don’t think he’s ready for MLB & the team will need to add him to the 26-man roster this week. A team like the Cardinals can hide him in their BP for 3 months better than the Phillies (who are playing for a posteason spot).
Hinkie List of Phillies Most Likely To Be Traded
1️⃣ Noah Song 🔼
2️⃣ Simon Muzziotti
3️⃣ Griff McGarry
4️⃣ Alex McFarlane
5️⃣ Johan Rojas 🔽 (less available w/Pache injury)
Honorable Mention: Hao-Yu Lee
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I would not trade McGarry for any rental Rojas either and its not out of the question that Pache could be moved again.
We have other interesting players I would trade for rentals: Hall, Podkul, Ellis, Cave, Brogdon, Shulze, Lindow.
Kendall is OPSing over 1.000 at LKW age 23 is a tad old for that league but still (would trade for a rental)
Sang is 22 OPSing 800+ at LKW not too shabby. (Would trade for a rental)
Agree with you on Lee. He’s a really good hitter just 20 at LKW with a modest 724 OPS his metric is his ability to command the K zone. He walks half as much as he K’s and sprays line drives all over the diamond. Limited defensively to probably just 2B maybe 3B but lacks the pop. He’s expendable for the right rental but would prefer we get something controllable in return.
Sam Aldegheri is a 21 y/o lefty at CLW 76Ks in 61 IP. He’s likely a ways away from the MLB but lefties are always attractive. (Would NOT trade for a rental
De La Cruz 23 at AA OPSing 841 with lots of positional flexibility.
And then there is the guy that never gets love here Rafael Marchan. He should be catching in the MLB somewhere and if I had my way I’d trade JT to clear the way for him.
Still just 24 he’s decent enough with the bat hitting 282 and OPSing 744 in AAA. He’s a great kid with experience beyond his years. Oh yea he is a switch hitter…
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DMAR…agree with virtually all your proposals.
The older prospects at lower levels, who are doing well, makes sense in trade assets, they may be doing well becasue they are older however.
And then ….you would trade JTR to make way for Marchan…that is admirable….but John Middleton, in his best Donald Trump voice, would look at you and say…’Your fired”….LOL
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Lindow? He was sold to Seattle back in May.
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Carlson hasn’t been a very good player at all this year or last – I am not saying he isn’t worth a gamble, but his value is way down and you shouldn’t be throwing Griff McGarry into any trade to get him.
That said, the Phillies are awash with excess centerfielders. One team does not need Pache and Marsh and Muzziotti and Rojas. Marsh is likely to stay but at least one of those other guys is going for sure and Muzziotti is as good as gone but I do wonder if we will look back and regret that.
By the way, while nobody was looking Kendall Simmons may have really turned the corner. He was hurt this year, but his raw talent is through the roof.
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I would ask for Helsey rather than Hicks and do the trade.
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Easy no. The Phillies have a glut of OFs already and we don’t need to bring another one on board. If we’re trading for a LF, it should be a rental with some pop. Carlson is a decent player but he’s declined the last 2 years. And his defense is just ok, he’s not elite with the glove.
I would rather keep McGarry and start Pache than trade for Carlson.
If the Phillies relievers are healthy, we don’t need Hicks.
As for Flaherty, the Phillies are not going to a 6 man rotation. And Sanchez has been great.
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“If we’re trading for a LF, it should be a rental with some pop”…..e.g. Teoscar Hernandez from the Mariners fits that description, plus he is a RHB.
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I’m in that camp too Guru. I say don’t do anything for rentals unless its for very minimal prospect capital.
Its not gonna matter if the likes of Turner, Castellanos, Schwarber and JT continue to sh!t the bed and BH can’t play 1B everyday.
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DMAR…how would you like to have a high school team with the following arms in the rotation?
Senior-Max Fried
Senior-Lucas Giolito
Soph. Jack Flaherty.
That was the case in 2012 at Harvard-Westlake HS, Calif.
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The only reason why I am saying no to this trade is because you put that the Cardinals would get Griff McGarry and I don’t want that. If you find another pitcher fine.
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Following the discussion, I realize that there are pros and cons to building through trades or the farm. Atlanta has been constantly in contention for a playoff birth for as long as I can remember, yet they did not trade Ronald Acuna, Michael Harris, Spencer Strider, Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley as they came up, because as rookies they were not a sure thing. Sometimes it pays to let the youth play- remember when Utley Rollins and Howard were coming up? What seemed to be a rebuild surprised us with how rapidly they became solid major leaguers.
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That would be the ideal scenario…build thru the draft and your own farm system….with a trade or two, or a free agent signing on the margins to complete the team..
But the Phillies owner seems to put more emphasis on the big name free agent signings and build around the margins with trades or drafted prospects.
Looks like the Phillies and Mets are doing it quite similar, as opposed to the Braves, Marlins and Nats.
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MLL, As much as I like Stott, and I am also a Bohm fan, they are not Utley, Rollins and Howard. And, I don’t think anyone believes that we have those guys coming in younger versions. We suffered through the rebuild where we had nothing to show for being bad. Yes, we traded O’Hoppe, and Mickey is doing well, but I doubt that would have happened here. Maybe after TJ surgery and a couple of more years, Andrew Painter is as good as Stider, but relying on our farm these past few years would not have gotten us last year”s run. And, as much as I am disappointed in our play this season, I am not giving last year back. And Atlanta is not nearly as good without Matt Olsen and Sean Murphy, which took trading good propsects to get.
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Bohm is very overrated. It’s not that he’s a bad player, it’s that he does so many things not that well that he has to hit a TON to justify his existence and he’s hit fine, but not great. He’s not a good fielder (range is terrible). He doesn’t run well. He doesn’t hit for enough power. He does not get on base a lot for his average. I think about Bohm as a younger Nick Castellanos – if he’s not hitting at like a 130+ OPS, he’s not going to be more than a 2 WAR player.
I said last year that he’s the guy you trade while his value is high and I still believe that. Stott is different – he is a good baserunner, he plays a key defensive position well and he has like a 65/70 hit tool. He’s basically Dansby Swanson with a better hit tool but less power, which is damned good.
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Well you were wrong last year and are still wrong about Bohm. He’s one of their most consistent hitters and his defense has greatly improved. Oh, and he’s making ML minimum.
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Sadly, I was not and am not wrong. Fangraphs has him as a 0.50 WAR player. Why? He’s a -1.9 base runner, a -1.7 offensive player and a -5.5 defensive player. A team full of Alec Bohms loses you 100 games. His only hope is if he were to greatly improve his power or walk a lot more. If you think he’s a good player – at least this year – yeah, you couldn’t be more wrong. Objectively, he is below mediocre, below replacement value.
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And the Fangraphs rating is not an anomaly. Baseball reference has him at exactly 0 WAR. Zero!!! If you think he’s good, I don’t know what to tell you – he’s a bad baseball player right now. And he does so many things poorly he has to hit a lot better to be even an average player.
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What’s his WAR for tonight?
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And, no, tonight’s outcome doesn’t change that. He needs to hit a lot more to be a good player. Here’s to hoping he can do that.
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Obviously his 2023 WAR is impacted by playing many games at 1b where the offensive bar is much higher. His OPS is above 100 which makes him basically league average. He’s not a bad baseball player.
Have a good rest of your evening.
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But noy this one, huh catch?
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Bottom of the lineup hits, Bohm, Narsh and Rojas, 2B for Bohm, Narsh and Rojas single, score a run, then our “big guys” come up. Schwarber pop foul, runners don’t move. Turner pulls a grounder, Marsh out a 3rd, and Bryce grounds out to 2d. No more runs, couldn’t move runners, couldn’t do anything of value. Against Kyle Gibson! Pathetic!
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The problem with Alec Bohm is that his glove is so bad, it’s destroying his value. Whether he plays 3B or 1B, he’s been negative dWar every season of his 4 year career. And his bat is not making up for his defense. Bohm’s career OPS is just above Maikel Franco but less than Placido Polanco. Bohm is a contact hitter DH playing 3B/1B. Bohm will be entering arbitration next season so he’ll likely stick around but he’s not getting a second contract from the Phillies unless he starts hitting with much more power.
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Bohm does appear to hit in the clutch.
That’s something that can’t be said this year for much more expensive Castellanos and Turner.
But I get the point and would agree to trade him now at what may be his highest point of value.
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I just did a quick dive into something I thought might interest you guys: defensive replacements of Schwarber.
So far, Schwarber has been replaced in the field 22 times this season. Of those, 9 were blowouts (5+ run margin). So 13 were “close” games that you might expect to remove a horrible defender.
The depressing part? He has stayed in the game AT LEAST 10 times where the tying run came to the plate. I checked these games manually, and only looked at games we won by 3 or fewer runs, so the number could actually be higher.
43% of the time Schwarber should be replaced in the field, he isn’t. I am very depressed.
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