Weekly Discussion (12/25/22)

Weekly Discussion

The baseball offseason continues.

Hope everyone who celebrates had a happy holiday.

News

Friday, a source reported that the Phillies reached an agreement with RHP Craig Kimbrel.  An early Christmas present for sure, but time will tell if he is the equivalent of the hot video game, pajamas, or somewhere in between.

The Phillies also signed free agent 3B Nick Podkul to a minor league contract and assigned him to Reading.

RHP Tayler Scott who had been designated for assignment opted to test free agency.

Hot Stove

Carlos Correa’s move to the NL East hit a pothole when the Mets questioned his physical.  He’ll likely still sign with the Mets after some “protections” for the Mets are reworked into the agreement.  It would be interesting (at least to me) if the Mets pulled out of of the deal and Boras had to sell his client after a second team withdrew because of medical reasons.

Nathan Eovaldi remains the only unsigned player who received a qualifying offer.

The Phillies signed a former closer in Craig Kimbrel.  He’ll join a Phillies bullpen that will likely be closer by committee, again.

The Kimbrel signing probably brings the Phillies’ free agency involvement to a conclusion.  It also means that the Phillies roster is likely set until spring training sorts out a couple spots – DH, 5th starter, and one or two bullpen spots..

The position players are set with Realmuto, Hoskins, Stott, Turner, Bohm, Schwarber, Marsh, and Castellanos.  The bench is set with Stubbs, Maton, Sosa, and Vierling.  Guthrie maybe has a chance to crack the bench.

DH will likely be a contest between Hall and Cave with the loser going to Lehigh Valley.

The rotation is Nola, Wheeler, Suarez, Walker, and one of several pitchers in camp (Falter, Plassmeyer, Sanchez, and possibly but likely Painter) .  The bullpen is Alvarado, Dominguez, Kimbrel, Bellati, Brogdon, Strahm) and two of several pitchers in camp (Coonrod, Morales, Nelson, Ortiz, Vasquez).

A trade remains a possibility but doesn’t seem likely.  But, we might see one or two extensions before the season begins.

Key Dates

  • January 13, 2023: Deadline for teams and players to submit salary figures for arbitration.
  • January 15, 2023: Opening of the 2022-2023 international signing period.
  • February 25, 2023: Phillies First Spring Training Game (split squad)
  • March 30, 2023: Season Opener at Texas Rangers
  • April 6, 2023: Home Opener v. Cincinnati Reds
  • July 2023: Rule 4 Amateur Draft
  • December 15, 2023: Close of the 2022-2023 international signing period.

Transactions:  A three-week-old transaction for RHP Jesus Polanco was probably the Phillies’ last foray into the previous international signing period.

12/23/2022 – RHP Tayler Scott elected free agency
12/22/2022 – Phillies sent RHP Tayler Scott outright to Lehigh Valley
12/17/2022 – 3B Nick Podkul assigned to Reading
12/17/2022 – Phillies signed free agent 3B Nick Podkul to a minor league contract
12/01/2022 – Phillies signed free agent RHP Jesus Polanco to a minor league contract

 

92 thoughts on “Weekly Discussion (12/25/22)”

  1. Jim, do you feel Robertson or Kimbrel is a better deal? I think both got $10M. That seems like a lot for either of them. I would guess they may each pitch around 50 innings. Lots of money for a few innings and no guarantee the innings will be that effective either.

    Like

    1. Toward the end of the season and thru the playoffs, I had little confidence when Robertson was called into a game. Neither he nor Kimbrel would have been a target of mine.

      But, it’s hard to fill a position for a one-year contract when multi-year contracts are being offered and accepted. The $10M is just the cost of doing business.

      I don’t think it matters to the Phillies. I think they added a veteran arm and hope he buys time while their young arms sort themselves. If he has a return to his former form, great. But, I think the Phillies are expecting more from their almost-ready-for-prime-time relievers than we are prepared to accept.

      In addition to the names I mentioned above, I think the Phillies believe that a couple of other pitchers (not named Painter, Abel, McGarry) are ready to force their way up the organizational ladder and possibly contribute at the major league level. Plus, there’s at least one dark horse rehabbing at the Complex who could also fit that bill.

      Like

      1. Thanks Jim. I too was not really on either bandwagon. But I get your point on the one-year deal not having as many options. Let’s hope it works. I hope you are right on some of the guys who may be close to coming onto the scene. I like dark horses. Maybe that will come to fruition as well.

        Like

  2. Apologies if this is already covered, but other than Jesus Polanco being a right handed pitcher, was recently in Venezuela, and is 6′ 3″/190lbs I couldn’t find anything about him.
    Age???? Experience??? pitches thrown??? control??? command???

    Like

    1. There’s a 20-year-old Jesus Polanco from the DR. According to a video clip I found, he might have been a position player 4 years ago. That’s all I could find.

      Like

      1. thanks, Jim!!! What appears to be his Twitter feed shows him for years in Caracas (wearing an Atlanta Braves cap!)

        Like

  3. The Kimbrel signing is tough to get excited about because we don’t know which version of him to expect. Last year was two versions, early was good but late was awful. Did he get injured? Tired? Who knows. There’s a chance that he can help but an equal chance that he’ll be awful again. DD knows him so I understand the signing. We’ll see. I agree that they’re counting on someone from the young group of Miller, Morales, or even McGarry. Also, Sanchez has no options remaining and will either make the team as a long man or be released.

    Like

    1. And Baker who I forgot is also a possibility.
      I don’t expect any more major league signings but I expect a few two way guys signed.

      Like

    2. If Kimbrel washes out and we bring up a rookie that does well, instead of losing $10 million we get an asset at $10,750,000 for the year.

      Like

  4. I think the odds the team will add one reliever yet on a major league contract is greater than 50%. Now I expect several more relievers and possibly a starter to be added on minor league contracts with invites to major league camp to add to depth.

    Like

  5. Hinkie…this is for you. Last Spring before the draft I mentioned to you Keaton Mahan. He is the nephew of a friend of mine I taught and coached with for many years. Keaton ended up going to OSU. But I guess things did not work out with him and the new coach from one of the Texas schools. So, he is transferring to Wabash Valley J.C. My friend said Wabash Valley has been very good in recent years. Plus, he said by being at the J.C. he will be eligible for the draft the next two seasons as well. Is that correct.
    For a bit of irony, I guess the OSU coach was recently at the Pro-X facility at Grand Park. There he spoke with Mike Shirley who is one of the main guys and also a scout for the White Sox about getting some Indiana kids to OSU. Shirley supposedly told him running off one of the best is not going to endear you to many of the current kids. Shirley has worked many years with Keaton and in fact my grandson also works with him one night a week currently. Shirley is kind of a no-nonsense guy so do not think the new OSU guy made a great impression.

    Like

  6. Romus…this is for you. I just learned last night that Scott Rolen still holds the record in the Indiana high school basketball state tournament for 3s in a quarter 7 and in a game 9. The 3-point shot came into play in 1988 in Indiana. When did Scott get drafted by the Phillies? I know he is currently around Central Indiana and one of his kids is a couple years younger than my grandson.

    Like

    1. Don…..1993 he was drafted…..has an outside shot at the Hall…70 WAR player…I saw Brooks Robinson, Mile Schmidt, Craig Nettles, Ken Boyer, A. Beltre etc , along with a few others over at the hot corner….Rolen could hang with all of them with his glove…career DRS of 116.
      Had some back issues and may have been even better

      Like

      1. i think article says he had 7 or 8 Gold Glove. I have seen lots of kids play high school basketball in Indiana. I would never have put the 3-point tourney record and Scott Rolen together. I know the Montogomery kid who was drafted high in 21 was a very good basketball player as well. I hope your fingers have thawed. It is not 20 here and seems like we are on the beach somewhere. No wind. It is like 70 degrees warmer than Friday and Saturday.

        Like

        1. Hah…..maybe will reach 45 here on Wed, 50 on Thur, 55 on Fri., 60 on New Years Eve….time for pitchers and catchers at that point.

          Like

          1. Kind of the same here. Around 50 by Wednesday and 57 on Friday when grandson team gets to play at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. I am hoping the kids are excited to get that chance. Since their girls’ team has played in 2 of the last 3 state championship games there it may not mean as much. It would have meant a lot to me back in my day to get that chance.

            Like

  7. Romus…timing is everything. CBS just put up a story on Rolen and his chances of making HOF in 23. He is mostly compared to Ron Santo. He was rookie of the year in 1997 and is 47 now. By my Math he graduated from Jasper High School probably in 92 or 93.

    Like

    1. Man, I was never for Santo going into the HOF. He was a good 3b and hitter but shouldn’t be with the elite. Also, I was turned off that he was self marketing.

      Like

  8. So the Phillis signed former first round pick of the Rays’ in 2015, OFer Garrett Whitley.
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=whitle002gar
    ………..slash of ,232/.345/.404 at over 2000 minor league PAs…..so Phillies hope to get his bat rejuvenated.
    Scouting report:
    Hit: sprays line drives all over the field and favors contact to power; leveraging his legs to steal hits or take the extra base. Overall, a fringy tool with little projection remaining. Grade: 45

    Power: Shows above-average raw but more fringe-average in-game; occasionally sells out at the expense of contact; approach refinement may hinder overall power numbers. Grade: 45

    Field: Solid-average defender; slowly starting to play more left field as the frame reaches projection. Lacks the instincts necessary to play center every day … Grade: 50

    Arm: An average arm; shows carry with throws staying on line. Arm would play in right field fine; shows enough strength to play any spot in the grass. Has taken a step back since shoulder surgery. Grade: 50

    Run: Easy plus runner with potential for double-digit steals across a full season. Aggressive on the base paths almost to a fault; fearless mentality. Grade: 60

    Overall: Whitley remains a high-risk profile; his swing-and-miss and injury history continue to make an everyday role less likely as he progresses through the minors, but he’ll continue to get every chance as a former first rounder.

    Like

      1. Imho, no way schwarber leads off with turner on the team.

        Turner should be the lead off hitter, UNLESS Stott is ready (which I don’t). Can’t have schwarber clogging up bases for turner with his SB abilities. Turner needs to be able to run free. It’s probably the easiest decision of the 2023 season… possibly on any team. I’ll eat my words if not, but I can’t see it going down any other way.

        Like

        1. Tac3, your right. However I have seen a many of managers refuse to change things to make them work better. I don’t think this manager is like that but we will see.

          Like

  11. Chris Sale to the Phillies??????
    “…. Dombrowski has made it clear he wants to add whatever is needed to win a championship next season. Signing All-Star shortstop Trea Turner this winter was step one. Swinging a blockbuster trade for Chris Sale could be the next to help bolster their starting rotation for another World Series run.”

    Red Sox getting calls on Chris Sale: 5 ideal trade destinations for former ace (sportsnaut.com)

    ……….hope he passes on this, possibly three more years at $25M AAV per with many injury concerns.

    Like

    1. I saw a proposal for:

      Sale to Phillies
      For
      Falter, Sosa, and Lee.

      If Sale is the pitcher you hope. You do it, and find a defensive replacement for Sosa. I really like sosa and hate to lose him. Falter seems expendable. Lee … seems to be climbing as a desirable prospect. I wonder if he can play 3B, move Bohm to 1B if Hoskins is not going to be resigned. Sosa is the stop gap until it happens.

      The question is .. is Sale the right player to give them up for? The trade could improve the team on 2 fronts. Sale in SR, that bumps Ranger to the pen for the playoffs … but not before he helps saves Painter’s innings for The playoffs. Ranger vs Painter is the SR is an argument for sure but … forecasting painter hitting his cell skill ceiling, it’s a strong possibility he could wrestle the spot away from Ranger, not to mention Suarez BP success probably hurts him staying in the SR.

      Wheeler
      Nola
      Sale
      Walker
      Painter

      Domiquez, Alvarado, Suarez, Kimbrel, Brogdon, McGarry, Bellati

      I’d be extremely confident with that staff

      Like

  12. Hope everyone had a great Christmas and or Chanukah. I think I am suffering from a WS hangover as I’ve not had much interest since signing Turner and Walker. I believe those two things were enough to sure us up to start the season

    But also its a little bitter knowing we won’t be starting the season with BH.

    Jimmy you raised my left eyebrow (the one that doesn’t work) when you said “probably but likely Painter” for the last spot in the rotation.

    I certainly don’t question Painter’s ability to pitch in the MLB effectively. I only question the number of innings he is capable of providing in a responsible way. He’ll be 20 this April.

    Like

      1. Agreed. They won’t start Painter bin the majors with his innings cap. They’ll bring him along slowly with 4 or 5 inning starts at Reading and then LHV before he might come up in July. Falter or Sanchez will start in the 5th spot. Sanchez will make the team or be lost.

        Like

    2. Like I’ve said for the past couple of months … a 6 man rotation makes too much sense for 2023. Their three young arms (Painter/Abel/McGarry) will all be on innings restrictions. And their three top starters (Wheeler/Nola/Ranger) all either threw career high IPs or missed time with a dead arm.

      Like

      1. Not happening. They’ll want their big 4 pitching every 5th day with the occasional day off extending it to a 6th day. That’s what they’re used to and that plays a big part. They don’t want to lose their starts to a 6th SP.

        Like

        1. I predict they’ll go with a 6 man rotation for parts of the 2023 season. Dombrowski plays the long game. He’s building for the postseason. He needs Wheeler/Nola/Ranger/Painter/Walker available and shooting on all cylinders for October. Just my opinion.

          Like

          1. Hinkie…probably situational.
            The four day all -star break gives them time to regroup mid-season.
            OTOH, if there are an abundant amount of rain postponements then they could go into that direction when the double-headers begin to pile-up.
            The other factor….the starter arms (e.g. Plassmeyer) and also the BP arms (e.g. Morales) in LHV may be better this season

            Like

  13. I actually think we could see Turner, Hoskins, JT, Schwarber, Casty, Hall, Bohm, Stott, Marsh. The manager might leave Hoskins at 2 and bat Schwarber 4. With Stott and Marsh at 8/9, I don’t see any way they bat Schwarber, another lefty, leadoff.

    Like

    1. This would allow them to move Harper into the 2 spot and Hoskins to replace Hall at 6 when Harp is back, causing the least change to the others. I’d love Turner and Harper at the top.

      Like

    2. Don’t wanna see Hoskins in the 2 hole any more than I wanna see Schwarber leadoff. Let’s have a solid contact bat who can also work the count. I would give Stott spring training to see how he does. With Harper out, let the boppers bat in the middle of the lineup.

      Like

      1. I would put JTR in the 2-spot. He’s probably their 2nd best runner with Turner leading off and also their best OBP hitter after Harper. He also likes to work the ball the other way.

        Give me

        Turner
        JTR
        Schwarber
        Hoskins
        Castellanos
        * Harper’s replacement *
        Bohm
        Marsh
        Stott

        When Harper returns, he moves to the 2 spot and everyone else drops down a spot.

        Like

        1. 3up….agree.
          JTR handles the bat well and his the speed on the base paths can createt runs…with Turner batting ahead of him.
          Schwarber in the three hole gives him the ducks on the pond….69% of his HRs were solo shots.

          Like

  14. I agree with you both. Let Stott earn his spot at #2, which I think he eventually does. Not Hoskins, and you guys know I have been a Rhys guy, but I think batting 2d hurts him.

    Like

    1. Considering Stott hit 276 in 2nd half and was better on offense than everyone except JTR and Schwarber I could see him claiming that 2nd spot in spring training.
      Turner (R)
      Stott (L)
      JTR (R)
      Schwarber (L)
      Hoskins (R)
      Castellanos (R)
      Marsh (L)
      Bohm (R)
      fill in ?

      2nd half:
      Turner (R)
      Stott (L)
      JTR (R)
      Harper (L)****
      Hoskins (R)
      Schwarber (L)
      Castellanos (R)
      Marsh (L)
      Bohm (R)

      Like

        1. Romus…I thought Marsh was overmatched by the hard throwers as the playoffs wore on and they knew they could get him out with that.

          Like

          1. Don…yes….he will need to adjust…..but he will not be facing play-off pitchers every game thru the season….BUT …in the WS, over a span of 30 innings from the sixth inning of Game 3 through the end of the WS, Phillies hitters went 9 for 98 for a BA of .092. Forget the lack of success with runners in scoring position, they didn’t hit, period except, for Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper

            Like

            1. I perceived that Marsh mostly struggled with velocity when it was up. More or less that is a hole in his swing so he’ll either have to focus on laying off that pitch or cheat a little more often to try and jump it.

              My ultimate LU goal is to have Turner and Bryce 1 and 2 and Schwarber 4. That means we need to find a 3 hole hitter and a temporary 2 hole hitter.

              Meaning someone that understands when the time comes they will be moving down and won’t become mentally distraught over it.

              Like

            2. The issue with Marsh is the low walk rate leading to a lower OB% and couple that with a high strike out rate. If he can change that then maybe considered as a lead off hitter (or #2). With that he needs to hit for higher average to try to match the production of Stott or Turner.

              Like

            3. This is just my thoughts. I thought the turning point was game 4. The Phillies came home and just pounded in game 3. So, everyone is excited, and the Astros throw a no-hitter with their number 4 guy and others. I thought all the mojo the Phillies had went away. Yes, they could have won game 5 and game 6. But it seemed to me something changed. Not scoring on Verlander in game 5 when there were early runners on base was another key failure. I did not see any way that the Astros would win two games in Philly the way the Phillies had played during the playoffs. The no hitter just changed things.

              Like

        1. Thanks Skeet. I was looking at 2nd half stats and it showed a big improvement from Stott. It also shows Castellanos and Bohm also being a shade above average in 2nd half which may bode well for 2023 for them. Add in JTR having the best 2nd half on the entire team, then I say why not place him 3rd between leftys Stott and Harper.

          Like

    2. One thing really good about Stott is he is good at working the count. I think he only gets better. Other than the WS he did well in that area in the playoffs.

      Like

      1. He really is………….I don’t want to be too critical about him……..I would to see more line drives out of him…….we’ll see how his 2nd year pans…….really like his chances and think he’ll do well at 2B.

        Like

  16. I read a scenario that would have Stubbs catching a heavy amount with JT DH’ing. I really like that idea.

    Like

    2. Well, I can see JT getting more of a breather in 2023, but I don’t think the adjective heavy is what I have in mind. I kinda like Stubbs use as it is. As many DH’s as s team has, i think when we give JT a break, we can give him a break.

      Like

  17. I can see resting JTR a few more games, bit certainly not dramatically. Way too many DH’s already that need ABs. No offense to Stubbs, who I thought did a really nice job for us.

    Like

    1. I can see the maturation of Marchan and pushing Stubbs for that back-up position. Though would really hate to see Dombrowski trade either one of them, even with Sands still around for now..

      Like

      1. Romus i think Marchan will be a great backup, But maturation isn’t that the name of the cherry’s they put in drinks?

        Like

  18. I think you’ll see Sosa or Vierling play against the lefties with one of the 4 corner guys moving to DH that day and Hall or Cave DHing against the righties. JT will get his occasional day off for Stubbs but it will be to not play at all and rest. I don’t see him getting many DH at bats.

    Like

  19. Just saw this. Some may get a kick out of it. Guy on ESPN Brad Doolittle has 23 projections out. Kind of early.
    Mets 103
    Braves 99
    Phillies 85

    Astros are 6th on his list with 93 and Phillies are 12th. I would be really surprised if a 18 game difference between Mets and Phillies happens. He may not know the Phillies are not playing the Mets near as often. LOL

    Like

    1. Publishing any projections for 2023 before spring camps open is nothing short of absurd, whether it’s ESPN or Disney…oh, wait…🤔

      Like

    2. Honestly, I think the Braves and Mets are going to be good to very good and perhaps even excellent. As for the Phillies, they will at least be okay, but could be very good as well. If you told me the Phillies would win 84 games, I wouldn’t be shocked, nor would I be shocked if they won 96-98 games. But my sense is that they are going to be fighting it out all season with something approaching or slightly exceeding 90 wins and the outcome is going to come down to the last week of September as it often does. But because I think they are going to have almost no cushion for comfort, I don’t see Dombrowski settling into a 6-man rotation for any extended period of time – if at all. Ultimately, I think the team will hit and score runs. Whether it becomes a championship contender depends on the pitching. I could easily see one or more of Painter, Abel and/or McGarry being the difference (in a good way) between this year’s team and last year’s team. And I think Turner helps as well (he damned well better help for what he’s being paid).

      Like

  20. Don, I think they are over reacting to Harper being out until June. I think Turner and a rejuvenated Castellanos, plus the addition of Walker, wins us some games, and I think we are a plus 90 W team.

    Like

  23. My preferred lineup would’ve been, post All Star Break:
    1 Turner SS
    2 Bryce DH/RF
    3 Realmuto C
    4 Schwarber LF
    5 Castellanos RF/DH
    6 Stott 2B
    7 Bohm 1B
    8 Marsh CF
    9 Segura 3B

    Like

    1. Seriously….Dombrowski is going to trade back for Segura at the July deadline and pickup the remaining $11M on his contract!
      What brand of tea leaves are you reading these days.

      Like

  24. Buddy, I don’t want to raise the whole Rhys argument again, but why? What did you get for Hoskins? You are saving very little $, and the offensive production is worse without Hoskins. Segura would hardly be a GG 3B, we have no idea if Bohm can play 1B, and I just don’t see any benefit. Did you get a SP for him who is better than Walker as a #4 SP? Did you trade him for Liam Hendriks? Or, you just traded him because you don’t like him?

    Like

    1. Matt, I like the idea of more contact and less power / swing and miss in the lineup, and I think Rhys is the one place that could be done. I don’t dislike Rhys, I’m not crazy about him either. He’s a good but slightly flawed player.

      Like

  26. I wish all of you, and your families, a very Happy and Healthy New Year! Jim, thank you for all that you do. This is the number 1 site for Phillies fans anywhere!

    Like

  27. Okay. We’ve been having a somewhat heated discussion regarding Noah Song over in the Prospect Poll comments section. In order to reach a broader audience, I’m bringing this PSA (Phillies Service Announcement) here. Since it’s Saturday, I’ll repeat it tomorrow in the Weekly Discussion.

    #1.) Boston is not happy with the Phillies. Song was put on the “wrong” military list, a military list where he would not accrue major league service time, and a clever Phillies exec caught it. Seems to me they should be angry with their own employee who screwed up and not the Phillies.

    #2.) While on the Military List, Song does NOT count against the 40-man roster.

    #3.) IF Song gets his waiver, the Phillies can keep him on a reserve list for up to 60 days (with a possible 30-day extension if they see a need to apply for one) while on a minor league assignment. During this period he would not count against the 40-man roster.

    #4.) When the Phillies have exhausted the above options (in #3), Rule 5 Draft selection rules take precedence and Song would have to be activated or returned to Boston. If activated he goes onto both the 40-man AND active rosters.

    If I find out anything different, I’ll update and keep you posted.

    Now, from a Phillies point of view, they should prefer a waiver, if it comes, to happen later in the season, so that they wouldn’t have to activate Song into a playoff race in August or September.

    If no waiver materializes, the Phillies will have to make sure they have him on the correct military list come December and the next Rule 5 Draft.

    Like

    2. Nice insights Jim. Got the whole Song and dance with this write up! 🙂 Appreciated. Seems like quite the rule 5 heist by DD.
      Letting my optimism run wild, would be awesome to see Song & McGarry throwing smoke in playoffs for Phils, rivaling the Astros strong pen. Let me dream!

      Happy New Year to all you baseball nuts! Looking forward to 2023 topping 2022

      Like

Comments are closed.