Weekly Discussion (12/11/22)

Weekly Discussion

The baseball offseason continues.

The winter meetings have ended, and so has another slow week.

News

Seriously, it was a very active week.  For all intents and purposes, the Phillies could actually be finished with the free agent market.

First, the Phillies got their man this year when they announced they reached an agreement on a contract with SS Trea Turner on Monday.  The terms of the deal were for 11 years and $300 million.

Then, within 24 hours, they announced agreements with LH reliever Matt Strahm and RH starter Taijuan Walker for 2/$15M and 4/#72 respectively.   

Wednesday, they added RHP Noah Song from Boston and Navy during the Rule 5 Draft.  Song is fulfilling his naval service commitment.  The Phillies continued to add to their minor league depth with picks in seven rounds of the minor league portion of the draft.  They lost five players during the same portion of the draft.

By Friday, the Phillies had formally announced the signings of Turner and Strahm.  They bring the 40-man total to forty.  When the Walker signing becomes official, the Phillies will have to make a 40-man move unless they work a trade before then.

Hot Stove

The Judge watch is over.  A lot of the top names have also signed.  So far, the attachment of a  qualifying offer hasn’t proved to be much of a deterrent to organizations.  Fourteen players received QOs.  Two, Martin Perez and Joe Pederson, accepted the $19.65M offer and remained with their former team.  Of the remaining twelve, eight have already signed, most to very lucrative contracts –  Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, and Tyler Anderson.

The remaining four – Dansby Swanson, Carlos Rodon, Chris Bassitt, and Nathan Eovaldi – should have no problem signing contracts.  Swanson, in particular, looks like he is going to do much better in the shortstop market than predicted by the experts.

Other Stuff

The Readers Top Thirty starts today.

The spreadsheets under the Offseason Files tab are up to date.  Pitchers who have made deals have been marked.

For the mouse-challenged, depending on the outcomes of the five players going to arbitration, I have the Phillies either under the $233M CBT threshold by about $1.475M or over by about $225K.

Key Dates

  • December 15, 2022: Close of the 2021-2022 international signing period.
  • January 13, 2023: Deadline for teams and players to submit salary figures for arbitration.
  • January 15, 2023: Opening of the 2022-2023 international signing period.
  • February 25, 2023: Phillies First Spring Training Game (split squad)
  • March 30, 2023: Season Opener at Texas Rangers
  • April 6, 2023: Home Opener v. Cincinnati Reds
  • July 2023: Rule 4 Amateur Draft
  • December 15, 2023: Close of the 2022-2023 international signing period.

Transactions

12/09/2022 – Phillies signed free agent LHP Matt Strahm
12/08/2022 – Phillies signed free agent SS Trea Turner
12/07/2022 – Phillies claimed RHP Noah Song off waivers from Red Sox Organization
12/07/2022 – Lehigh Valley claimed SS Pedro Martinez off waivers from Bowling Green (TB)
12/07/2022 – Lehigh Valley claimed C Cody Roberts off waivers from Bowie (BAL)
12/07/2022 – Lehigh Valley claimed RHP Yoniel Ramirez off waivers from San Jose (SF)
12/07/2022 – Lehigh Valley claimed SS Cam Cannon off waivers from Worcester (BOS)
12/07/2022 – Lehigh Valley claimed RHP Trey Cobb off waivers from Syracuse (NYM)
12/07/2022 – Lehigh Valley claimed 2B Oliver Dunn off waivers from Somerset (NYY)
12/07/2022 – Lehigh Valley claimed RHP Zach Linginfelter off waivers from Rocket City (LAA)
12/07/2022 – Omaha (KC) claimed SS Shervyen Newton off waivers from Reading
12/07/2022 – Louisville (CIN) claimed RHP Kyle Glogoski off waivers from Jersey Shore
12/07/2022 – Oklahoma City (LAD) claimed RHP Carlo Reyes off waivers from Jersey Shore
12/07/2022 – Iowa (CHC) claimed CF Jefferson Encarnacion off waivers from Clearwater
12/07/2022 – Sugar Land (HOU) claimed RHP Manuel Urias off waivers from FCL Phillies

 

 

212 thoughts on “Weekly Discussion (12/11/22)”

  1. Busy week indeed, an active winter meetings is much better for baseball than a standstill until spring training.

    This past season was one of the top I’ve seen. Other than the obvious, I’m wondering if you guys see it as well.. this was not only the 1st postseason run in what felt like a century, but … the 1st run without the old “unwritten” rules of baseball. To me it helped
    Turn up the dial on the excitement meter. Bat slams,flips, skipping, multiple fist pumps, etc. I can see it growing the game more than hurting it.

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  2. Is anyone else concerned that the Mets “quietly” got better? Strong pitching staff with the same lineup?
    They might not be good in the long run but they could do damage the next 2 years.

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    1. Mets did come out very well, after the deGrom loss.
      Are they better than the 101 win team of last year…that remains to be seen.
      IMO, I do not see it.
      The 38-year old MadMax Scherzer is showing his wear and tear after 15 years, and I am not entirely sold on their newest signing from Japan….RHP Kodai Senga…he does walk a fair amount of hitters, even when using a smaller Japanese baseball and hr barely touches 6′. He probably is a fair to midland mid-rotation guy.
      OTOH…Quintana, Diaz coming back and maybe even David Robertson (early on in the season) were good signings.
      Bottom line…Phillies were 5-14 against them last year…..if the Phillies can break even this year it is a different ballgame.

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        1. With the more balanced schedule next season, I believe the Phillies will be playing 13 games (instead of 19) against each opponent in their division. So the Phillies will not be fattening up vs the Nats, but they won’t have to face the Mets that often.

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    2. Mets were always going to field a strong team. Spending $300+ million makes it virtually impossible not to.

      I’m not sure there overall pitching is better than last year based on the results they got from guys like Bassitt and Walker.

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        1. Heard Giants may be interested and could be a possibility….. after the Sean Manaea signing now.
          Farhan built up the fan bases’ hopes to see it fizzle without getting Judge.
          Now they are talking Ohtani for next year…..sheeesh.

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    3. I don’t see the megabucks Cohen has spent so far translating into anywhere close to another 100 win season. Verlander and Scherzer may be effective when healthy and available, but neither will approach their respective performance levels of 2022 as time and history prove their effect like gravity. Senga is an unknown with red flags galore. Quintana is a nice pickup as a #4. I have to seriously doubt that Diaz repeats what he did this past season. Are they formidable? I guess, but I don’t place any undue fear in the NYM roster as a whole. Mainly because, well, their the Mets, prodigious new owner or not.

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      1. Don’t forget – despite Mets on base abilities last year they still were bereft of power other than Polar Bear and Lindor. They did nothing to change that lack of power. 3B seems to be tailing down so they may not even have what power they had last year. Rookie catcher Alvarez may be the only place they get any more pop.

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    1. If the Phillie can go 6-7 or 7-6, vs each of the Braves and Mets ….and win at least 9 from each of the Marlins and Nats…. it will be still a good takeaway.

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  5. Is the schedule out yet? I wonder how many times we have to play both the Braves and Mets B4 BH is back healthy and rolling…

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    1. Schedule is out. I looked at it for my son last week. He is going to take his boy to Cincy in mid-April to see the Phillies. Phillies play Reds early next year both at Philly and Cincy. I am not sure how many games with divisions teams now.

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  6. DMAR, I believe we play the Braves 7 times and the Mets 6 times before the All Star break. I am using the Break as the latest that Harper is back as DH. I don’t think we play either until the end of May.

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  7. And 13 times in the month of September and October (1 game). Last 13 games of the 2023 season include 3 away vs. Atlanta ; 4 home vs. Mets ; 3 home vs. Pirates ; last 3 games on road vs. Mets.

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  8. Last night Romus had made a post on BP possible guys. I saw a Fansided article about the same time on computer. So, I posted gist of article. It was on bottom of last week’s posts. Dan K and Matt13 replied. Since it was late, I will just throw it out again for any other thoughts.
    Article was 3 things Philles need to do to keep pace with Mets.
    1. Sign Bassitt or Eovaldi
    2. Trade for Devers.
    3. Sign any BP guys Mets may want to sign. Thought that was a bit humorous.
    They listed Ottavino, Chapin and Rogers as the three most likely pursued by Mets so stated those would be the ones to sign.
    I notice lots of comments on Mets so here it is again for anyone to respond.

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  9. SI has a list of top 25 FAs left and predictions. None to Phillies or Mets on list.
    They have Bassitt to Cards and Eovaldi to Os. They have Segura and Thor both Red Sox.

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  10. Don, I really believe that we add another BP arm. Maybe DD has a trade candidate in mind, but I would love Rogers or Chafin.

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  11. Matt, I have no idea if these guys at these sites have any insight or not. I just throw them out for all if I see them. They seemed to think that Mets would most like Ottavino, Rogers and Chafin. I am not sure why they liked the Devers trade, but they felt he would fit in well in Philly. I forget is he a left-handed batter? That may have been their reason.

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    1. Don…Devers’ issue….$$$$$$ after this year.
      2023 is his final arb year….so there will be almost a $20M AAV for this season….then there will be his desire for 8 years @ $30M AAV.
      Bloom is caught in a little pickle…..after the Betts and Bogaerts exodus, if Devers ends up leaving, Bloom may also be following soon after.

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    2. Don, I almost commented last night but decided to pass. Since you brought the article up again and since you bring into question the insight of the author here goes.

      The author, Tim Boyle I think, is a Mets fan. He writes as a Mets expert on another site or two. I don’t believe that we Phillies fans were his intended audience on Fan Sided. The article when I accessed it was in the general MLB section, not the Phillies’ section.

      About its content. Who wouldn’t want to add any of the pitchers he listed? Doesn’t take much insight to throw out the names of some good pitchers and attach them in rumors with the Mets and Phillies.

      The Devers suggestion is bad. Why would we want to spend all the prospect capital he suggests on a one-year rental and then extend him for what would likely be a big contract?

      I think Boyle just wants to see the Phillies try to compete with the Mets in the same markets, outspend them, and be in the same place – huge payroll and no prospects.

      But, I’m a confirmed cynic. And the glass is ALWAYS half empty.

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  12. Romus, I don’t understand Boston. I always thought of Tom Werner as one of those owners that wanted to win every year, and who was not going to lose star players like he has. I know Bloom will ultimately take the fall, but Werner had to be in on the decisions to lose Betts and Bogaerts. I don’t know what happened to him. It clearly is not because he suffered financial losses elsewhere. How many Billions could he sell Liverpool for?

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    1. matt…….who know what is going on…..he owns 10% or more of Fenway Sports Group ( worth about $8B)….Liverpool, and Pitt. Penguins also are under their umbrella of ownership.
      The fans up there are not particularly happy after Bogaerts went westward.
      Bloom may take the blunt of it if they cannot keep Devers after this season

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      1. Update on Sean Murphy: it still appears Oakland is close to a trade, but the Braves are NOT going to be the acquiring team, per source. The Cardinals, Rays, Guardians and Red Sox are among the teams that have been connected to Murphy in recent weeks.

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        1. The deal sending Sean Murphy to Atlanta is part of a three-way trade with the Oakland A’s and Milwaukee Brewers, sources tell ESPN. One of the players heading to Milwaukee is catcher William Contreras. Oakland is getting catcher Manny Pina.
          …Braves and As like doing business together it appears.
          This is a good move for the Braves.

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    2. Guessing they are looking to use Contreras and D’Arnaud as the DH or they are planning to trade one of them in a separate deal.

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  14. That was the other day, Denny, He just went to the Braves, Contreras to the Brewers and Manny Pina to the A’s.

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    1. Considering the crazy money being thrown around, it’s a decent deal for the Blue Jays. They’re able to add a decent pitcher on a short term contract for the next 3 years (coincidentally the same 3 years that Bichette and Vlad Jr are still under arbitration). The flip side is that Bassitt will soon be 34 and he’ll soon find out that Rogers Centre is a different beast compared to Citi Field or Oakland Coliseum.

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      1. He’s a good pick-up. Only reason I hadn’t been wanting the Phils to go after him is because he’s going to be 34 next year and has a QO attached to him.

        If we’re giving up more draft picks, we may as well get Rodon.

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  17. So the catching market is really hot right now. Supposedly Vazquez is about to come off the board.

    I wonder if there are enough catching-hungry teams left that we could trade one of Marchan, Stubbs, or Sands for a solid reliever. Stubbs especially showed enough last year that he should be very intriguing for a team with question marks behind then dish, but the other two also would merit consideration from multiple teams I imagine.

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      1. I was hoping Marchan would win the back-up job last year, but can’t argue with results. That said, I still like his tool set a lot. He’s no JT, but he looks like the type of guy that can carve out a solid 10+ years in the big leagues.

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      3. Romus, in past years I’ve tracked Phillies winter league stats on a page on mlb.com Phillies site. But this year it’s always blank.
        Does anyone know of a site that provides winter league stats, especially if compiled by team?

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        1. Difficult to navigate,,,but maybe try by the specific winter league and then ‘2022’ year…..
          http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/

          Baseball reference has the latest if you know which players are playing winter ball. Here are a few:
          Erubiel Armenta..Mexican
          Johan Rojas….will be in the Dominican league
          Starlyn Castillo, Rix Wingrove, Chris Burke, Anthony Quirion. Arturo DeFreitas and N.P-G all in the Australian League.
          I am probably missing a few.

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          1. Thanks Romus.

            I wonder why MLB stopped providing the compiled content on each team site. It was so convenient. I went there almost daily over past several winters. The page still exists so either there’s an issue with the feed or mlb is lazy.

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            1. I believe MLB probably may have been short staffed during Covid and it just lapsed and no one has decided to update the system.

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            2. I think they don’t care. A lot of things became difficult after MLB swallowed the MiLB. It ranges from difficult to impossible to find FCL and DSL transactions. They broke the links for rosters, stats, and player searches for minor league stuff and did a poor job replacing them. They’ve changed some links in each of the past two years. They screwed up the winter league info you mention and also the Caribbean Series links. And, the Triple-A transactions that were made to protect players from the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft stopped being posted.

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      5. Romus When do you leave for your house in the Hampton, i Could use some lobster like you sent me last Christmas

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    2. I’m thinking that team in need of a catcher is Pittsburgh. They also have a center fielder demanding a trade. I’m not saying go after Reynolds, but make it possible for the Pirates to trade him. Tommy Sands, Johan Rojas and Francisco Morales for David Bednar.

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  18. Here’s hoping Swanson ends up not on the Braves. I think that’s a major blow to them. They have an in-house replacement but it nullifies the recent Murphy trade imo. Will see. Apparently they are far apart. I also hope this doesn’t mean that the Mets will try to sign Swanson. Joking but … part of me is serious on that. Mets are buying everything in sight

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    1. Sean Murphy, not the Good Doctor, went 1-13 against the Phillies in their 3-game series with A’s last year.

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  19. NY Post says Mets now moving attention to BP. Showed Ottavino in caption. Had a Phillies guy in background. Maybe Knebel? Looks like Phillies need to get busy if they are going to nab any of those we like before the Mets. Ottavino, Chafin, Rogers. Sounds like some will go off the board this week.

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    2. Don….Cohen is taking off……….
      Re-signed CF Brandon Nimmo for eight years, $162M
      Re-signed RHP Edwin Díaz for five years, $102M
      Signed RHP Justin Verlander for two years, $86.7M
      Signed RHP Koudai Senga for five years, $75M
      Signed LHP José Quintana for two years, $26M
      Signed RHP David Robertson for one year, $10M

      “According to FanGraphs, it all adds up to a projected Opening Day payroll of $335M that towers over the Los Angeles Dodgers’ record-setting $280.8M Opening Day payroll from last season. Joel Sherman of the NY Post recently floated $400M as a possibility for the Mets’ expenses for 2023, and they’re already kinda-sorta there. For luxury-tax purposes, they’re slated to open next season with a $349.6M payroll. That’s far beyond even the $293M barrier that they call “the Cohen tax.”
      …….Commish Manfred will be pressured eventually by other owners to rein in the guy.

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      1. Interesting- Diaz and Nimmo are re-signs; Verlander, Senga and Quintana are at best a wash with DeGrom, Walker and Bassit (probably a slight downgrade with Senga as a wildcard). So the only addition is Robertson, and I doubt I would pay $10M for a year of his services.

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      2. Romus…those are just appetizers. Now they are moving to the BP. Phillies need to act fast or the main course will be gone. LOL.

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  20. Romus, they knew what they were getting when they approved him. And, they were thrilled to be rid of the Wilpons. He was going to spend, and just happened to be richer than the rest of them. I still like our team, but would like to grab one of those Relievers that are still out there. And, I would not pass up a Thor deal if the $ is modest.

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    1. matt….not sure they expected all the trimmings that would come with him.
      They will have to make new penalties just for him.

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        1. I bet if they took a poll of MLBPA execs, ie Tony Clark and all his cronies ….they would vote Steve Cohen best owner in baseball.
          Maybe Elon Musk will buy the Angels…now wouldn’t that be a kicker.

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          1. I wish that Middleton would have offer Romus a piece of team, Then instead of Walker we could have Verlander or DE grom, plus nimmo and romus would have pick up the tax

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      2. Romus – the last I saw the Mets’ penalties amounted to $ 104.5 million. More than 6 teams’ payrolls. According to an Athletic article last week.

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  21. The passing of Curt Simmons, the last surviving member of the ’50 Whiz Kids, brings to mind the passage of time, how fleeting, and it’s been 25 years since Whitey’s been gone…

    Hard to believe, Harry.

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    1. Yes indeed, fleeting is truly the word,
      …….Curt Simmons was a graduate of Whitehall HS, PA…..also famous for footballers Matt Millen and Saquon Barkley.

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    2. Hard to believe, indeed.

      93 years old is ancient, yet I remember Curt pitching for the Phillies, and remember meeting him as a kid. I guess that means 93 isn’t so old — or I’m getting pretty ancient myself.

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      1. Frank……….Satchel said, “Don’t look over your shoulder, someone might be gaining on you”. Do you think he meant Father Time?

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    3. I remember as a very little kid that he and Robin Roberts both lived across the street from my uncle in Meadowbrook. They were still both pitching then.

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  22. Went on to a terrific career with the Cards after we foolishly released him! Now, medical technology was not nearly what it is today, but he made a comeback, and had some really good years in St. Louis

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    1. matt….now that the Giants have landed a prize in Correa…Farhan will need a power bat hitting behind him for protection…….hello Rhys! 🙂

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      1. Yep, I can just see him now scooping Correa’s low throws out of the dirt and leaping high to come down with that occasional high flyer! He’ll make Correa look great.😏

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  24. Mind boggling financial payroll statistics:

    “The Mets’ MLB-record payroll is well past the fourth and final luxury tax threshold of $293M. Their current payroll estimate from a luxury tax perspective is $349,573,333, according to Roster Resource. That would result in a tax bill of an estimated $76M. For perspective, the Mets’ payroll from a luxury tax perspective — excluding the penalty they’ll pay — is currently $108M higher than the Phillies’ and $160M more than the Dodgers’. They’re outspending the Yankees by more than $80M.”

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    2. The idea of the Mets losing money on their payroll reminds of the scene in Citizen Kane where Charlie Kane hires and overpays all the best reporters for his newspaper chain and he is pressed about losing a $1 million in a year (a huge sum back then) and he says, in effect, that he lost a million this year, he might lose a million the next year and the year after and if he keeps losing a $1 million a year he is going to go broke . . . in 60 years. That’s Steve Cohen, except the million dollars is $100 million.

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      1. Don…yes…..the penalty will be higher.
        As a reference, Phillies paid in 2021 approx $866K in the CBT….Competitive Balance Tax……Mets could pay 80 times that amount for 2023.
        They will need to go to fifth level with Cohen.
        Once they start removing both first and second round draft picks and substantially reducing international monies, Cohen will just keep climbing up the payroll ladder. The tax money is a drop in the bucket for him.
        Wonder if he ever served time in the US Navy…..as a drunken sailor!

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        1. The owners must so hate this guy’s guts at this point. They will change the rules (or attempt to do so) in the next CBA to reign this guy in. They did not entirely realize what they were getting into when he bought the team but it was inevitable that some owner would do this sooner or later. It just happened to be him.

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          1. Agree…….what concerns me is that Clark and the MLBPA will put their faith behind Cohen, for obvious reasons at the next CBA negotiations..
            And they will buck any attempt of putting any additional restrictions on spending limits.
            And of course, how can the really bottom third of teams…the small market teams …ever compete against this out-of control spending by one team owner, which could get contagious with a few other large market owners.
            New ones coming on board soon in Los Angeles ( Angels) and Washington..

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        2. I wonder how much he will suck Middleton into the spending spree. JM got the taste last Fall. It will be interesting to see how far he is willing to go to get the main course.

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    1. DMAR……he doesn’t have to win multiple WS rings…just one…and then go deep into the play-offs every year after to whet the appetite of the Met fans.
      Look at the Dodgers…only one in the last few decades….but they have been close a lot more often.

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      1. Good point Romus. Fans want to see some success. But I think just as importantly they want to think you are trying to win. Dodgers are a good example of that. You always think they have a chance to win.

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  26. I may be proved wrong, but I am glad he is spending Big $$$S on these Old guys.
    He may get a year from Verlander and Scherzer, but I keep seeing Mad Max serving one home run up after the other last Fall. Those guys are not that far from falling off the cliff. When it does it will come fast. I have no idea how the Senga deal plays out but usually it takes those guys some adjustment time. There will not be that much time with the old guys getting older each day.
    I have no problem with Diaz. When he is on, he is very good. I am still on the band wagon of the Phillies adding some more BP help. I do not know who, but I still think some help is needed.

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    1. Don……time for Nola to get extended also ……check out the AAV of pitchers.
      Pitcher Age AAV
      Max Scherzer…38…$43.33M
      Justin Verlander…40…$43.33M
      Jacob deGrom…35…$37M
      Gerrit Cole…32…$36M
      Stephen Strasburg…34 …35M
      Trevor Bauer….32…$34M
      Shohei Ohtani…28….$30M
      Chris Sale…34….$29M
      Marcus Stroman…32….$23.66M
      Zack Wheeler….33….$23.6M
      ….maybe on a slight home town discount, Nola should get somewhere in the $26M-$28M AAV range…maybe over 5 or 6 years.

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    1. I was a little puzzled about the Sean Murphy trade, but admit I don’t know all the aspects of that deal. However, there is a lot of good method to the Braves’ madness. The Braves are constantly re-loading successfully, so maybe, in the long run this would be a good move for Atlanta.

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      1. They just traded their best LHP prospect in Kyle Mueller in that As/Brewers three way, so I was a little surprised reading the latest.
        Though the Dodgers with their stack farm system could really bolster the Braves young group in a Fried swap.
        I assume the braves would go for 2/3 of the Dodger’ best pitching prospects….Braves positional alignment is set with plenty of young MLB players.

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  28. From what I read, catch, Atlanta puts a lot of emphasis on defense from it’s Catcher. They think Murphy is good at both. Milwaukee thinks they can work with Contreras and improve his D.

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    1. I figured it had to be an issue of defense and the Braves thinking Contreras was not good enough defensively for their vaunted pitching staff – so that does help answer some of the question. I can guarantee, however, if the Braves trade Fried, they will be looking to seriously re-stock and ultimately get better. It takes a lot of guts to make that trade.

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  29. Fansided has article up saying these moves make the Phillies staff complete.
    1. Eovaldi #5
    2. Noah Song middle inning
    3. Ottavino 8th inning
    4. Chafin
    We have seen three of these mentioned. They think it would be great if Song can make the Opening Day roster.
    Thoughts.

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    1. This is the same Mets writer whose article you mentioned earlier this week. This guy doesn’t appear to know anything below the surface of the Phillies. Like Song is on the restricted list and won’t be available to the Phillies this season. Like the fifth rotation spot is probably ticketed for our top prospect sometime early in 2023 and they aren’t going to invest heavily in a part-time starter.

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  30. Thor to the Dodgers. I would have liked him back at around $10M, but he gets $13M. I still think another arm won’t hurt, and I absolutely want at least 1 more BP arm. I am assuming that Painter does not come North, and I think that is the best course of action for him. I don’t think that Sanchez is a SP. So, I still think another SP arm for depth is a good idea.

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      1. Friedman is banking on Thor’s velo to now pick up, post TJ a few years now.
        If not…….Dodgers will then need more SP help because Buehler is going to be awhile before he can air it out.

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        1. It will be interesting for sure to see whether or not it ticks up anotch or two. My guess is probably not. I’m not wishing him bad, just got a feeling he’s gonna be about what he was for us. I felt like he was much more contemplative in his work than he was in his heyday years. Just MO.

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  31. MLB Pipeline has released its opening draft rankings and its first mock⤵️

    Jonathan Mayo Bryce Eldridge to the Phillies. Got to give him credit for nailing Brian Barber’s “type”: long, lean prepster (6’7″/215 lb RHP/1Bman).

    They’ve got Hurston Waldrep @ #10. He’s been my favorite prospect for the 2023 draft since last season. Again … I’m not wishing anything bad on him, but the only way he makes it to the Phillies is a TJ.

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    1. Hinkie, I saw one that had Clark going 1 to Pirates. Another had him 6 to A’s. I need to find out if he has played some with my grandson’s high school coach’s kid. Both play on Bulls. On different teams last couple years but may have been together at earlier age.

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  32. Couple things mentioned on High Heat yesterday. Rodon is only a few years from signing a minor league deal. Think they said 2. Also, only one time has he made 30 starts. Said he is still in the 7 yr. 30M a year ballpark. I would seriously doubt DD is in contact.
    I agree with Matt that I think a little more pitching is helpful for the Phillies.
    I am not going to mention names or articles anymore but just sit back and see what if anything takes place. Most moves will probably be done by next two weeks before the Holidays.
    Rueben was on with Russo yesterday and he said the 2011 team was the best in his mind. He said something to the effect that if the Phillies had lost a game to the Braves near the end of the season St. Louis would not have made the playoffs and history might have been different. That may be a Romus thing to look up. I know those things do happen. Phillies this year were almost proof of that. From 08 to 11 he did mention that the three years Phillies lost to the eventual WS champ.

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    1. I don’t think DD is out because Rodon had a minor league deal a few years ago. Things can change very quickly for pitchers. Cliff Lee had an historically bad 2007 – he almost didn’t make the team in 2008 and didn’t pitch in the postseason in 2007. Within 2 years he had won a Cy Young award, nearly won a WS and was the darling of the 2010 free agent class. DD just cannot commit more resources to starting pitching, especially with the young pitchers that are coming along. They need to make room for those guys.

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      1. I could see a one year/lower dollar deal for a swingman like Drew Smyly. Smyly is another guy with connections to Dave Dombrowski (drafted him).

        Like

      2. Catch… I think dollars not the minor league issue. Russo was just saying no way anyone should give him 7 years at those $$$. So, someone probably will.

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  33. Don…I know exactly what Ruben Amaro was talking about and he is correct. I remember it well. Cards were playing well at the end of 2011 and Braves were playing terribly. Despite the wonderful 2011 season for the Phils they actually ended a 9 game losing streak [yep its true!] on the final Sunday of the season against the Mets and had 3 games left in Atlanta.

    The Braves were 2 games ahead of the Cards for the wild card spot and really only needed likely 1 win against the Phils to make the playoffs and keep the Cards out, something I really wanted to happen.

    Cliff Lee started the 1st game and fell behind 2-0 but the Phils rallied and won 4-2 while St. Louis won their game to move within a game of the Braves for the wild card spot. The next night Roy Oswalt shut out the Braves 7-0 while the Cards lost so it went to the final day of the season….and the game Amaro is talking about.

    Cards had won but Braves took a 3-0 lead against a Phillie team that absolutely did NOT need to play their regulars, yet did. Phils crept back and an Utley sac fly in the 9th inning [why he was even in the game will forever befuddle me!] tied the game at 3.

    Game went into extra innings and Phils eventually won in, I believe, the 13th inning on a Hunter Pence hit [again, why was he even in there?] 4-3. I knew, absolutely knew that the Cards would be much tougher than the floundering Braves and I always thought that if I knew this, certainly the Phils would know this.

    Of course, it was Game 2 of the playoffs that turned the Phils/Cards series around. Phils won game 1, 10-6, behind Halladay and then had a 4-0 lead behind Cliff Lee in game 2. What I remember about that game was that with the Phils leading 4-0 and two runners on base Ryan Howard hit a towering fly ball to center [looked like a home run] that died in the October air and was caught. Cards pecked away, and eventually won 5-4.

    Phils won game 3 behind Cole Hamels 3-2 and series would have been over had Lee held the lead in game 2. Cards won the fourth game 5-3 and then came that Friday night in Philadelphia when you could make a strong case that the Phils lost the game, lost the NL pennant, lost Halladay, lost Howard…and lost their dynasty.

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    1. The thing I always remember about that series was Lee given a 4-0 lead. They kept showing a caption where Lee was like 45-1 in career when given a 4-run lead. The night ended 45-2. Also, game 5 with Doc first two batters yield a run and then Ibanez and someone else hit fly balls to RF that normally go out but stayed in park. And then forever Ryan falling to the ground on the last out. 1-0. Beginning of 10 years of futility.
      I had forgot the end of the season deal. I guess thanks for reminding me.
      I am kidding. Many times, the best team now does not win the WS. Things falling into place at the right time, health, luck and getting hot can carry you a long way. Phillies got lucky in game 1 in St. Louis with Hensley. He won one of the top relief awards for the year. Phillies could have easily trailed series1-0 and who knows what happens.

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    2. Remember this game, in the last inning Michael Martinez was playing centerfield and jumped up and reached over the fence and caught a home run ball, greatest catch I ever saw. If he had not made catch Phillies would have lost and Cards would not had made it. Great play that really hurt the Phillies.

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  34. Phillies have been pretty clear they plan for some combination of Falter/Painter/Abel, etc. to fill the 5th spot in 2023 so I don’t get everyone thinking they are still in the market for starting pitchers.

    They have their rotation set unless some unforeseen injury issue crops up between now and ST.

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    1. I think Plassmeyer and Falter duel it out for the number 5 slot this spring.
      I guess it really doesn’t matter much anymore….teams now need 7 starters at some point.

      Like

      1. Let’s be clear. Plassmeyer is pretty much the definition of a AAAA player. He’s a soft-tossing lefty whose only hope is to develop multiple pitches and elite command or an unusual out pitch. Falter is okay as a 5 but, as his World Series appearance painfully revealed, he has to develop a lot more to be anything more than a 5. Sanchez also is limited. One of these guys could develop and one will probably start the year as the number 5, but they are probably just keeping the seat warm for Painter.

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        1. Really doesn’t matter…..they will still need 7 starting pitcher arms …unless they plan on doing a lot of those BP games.

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          1. Yeah, at least 6 for sure. I’m just tempering expectations on the guys currently slotted to start the season at the back of the rotation.

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  35. Just for depth, 3up, and I don’t believe that Painter and Abel will be pitching in the Majors before June, Abel maybe not the whole season. I don’t think Sanchez is a SP, and you always need more than 5 SPs. If I thought Painter or Abel would be with the team after ST, that might be different, but I think it will be better for them to start at LHV and come up later.

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    1. IMO, if you can add value to your roster, then you do it. I doubt DD goes after Rodon (although with him nothing would surprise me) but if he didn’t, there’s no guarantee that Nola is agreeing to an extension or re-signing after 2023. Wheeler is potentially gone following 2024. Suarez is a solid bet to stick as a SP, but not a stone lock. The kids are yet unproven hopefuls which yes, you leave room for them to step up, but…so, why not if Middleton isn’t phased by the loose wallet up I-95?

      Like

    2. Only 2 off days in April next year. We need at least 5 dependable starters; if we think Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Walker & Falter are the 5. Not to bad but we should have 2 more in reserve. I would think Sanchez, Noah Skirrow, Plassmeyer, McGarry, make up the reserves.

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      1. The Phillies’ starting pitching staff has remained pretty healthy the past couple of years. That is more an exception than the norm. In 2021, 396 pitchers started a game in MLB. In 2022, 367 pitchers started a game in MLB. That means, on average, a MLB club uses a dozen (or more) SPs per season. That’s why pitching depth is so important to get through the regular season. The post season is a whole different story. In the postseason, you need two or three studs to give yourself a legit chance to win a title. Those innings eaters get little to no PT.

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        1. Hinkie….have to think some of those 396 starting pitchers were the ‘opener’ variety that Cash likes to use in Tampa.
          Cash is to the ‘opener’, like LaRussa was to the ‘closer’.
          Innovative changes to a traditional based sport.

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    3. But they are not spending $10 million signing a FA starter like Thor to add depth to the roster. Their depth is already in the system. Maybe they sign a veteran arm around ST if someone is still out there but they aren’t spending much for that guy.

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  36. Don, I was there that night, sitting in the second level, behind home plate. Loved that 2011 team, and really believe they were the best team in the league. Shocked when Cliff Lee blew that lead, but Hamels pitched great the next night vs that LHP that always gave us trouble, Jaime Garcia, with a 3R, Pinch Hit HR from Ben Francisco. Then that last game and Doc pitched his heart out. It was Ibanez and Utley that hit those Fly Balls that would have been out in 75 of the 81 Home games that year. My whole section and those around us, jumped up both times, thinking the balls were out. And then Howard tears his Achilles to end a heartbreaking game. I didn’t get over year the whole next season. Then this Post season happened, and I fell in love with my team again! So, I want to do everything that we can to do it again, and this year, win those last 2 games.

    Like

    1. Very well said Matt. I was right there with you on my couch here in the living room. I thought for sure the ball Raul hit was gone. I agree with you on the urgency to keep this going. Maybe this team this year was the 06 or 07 team. Just the beginning of some good times to come. Let’s hope so.

      Like

  37. If you think that the Phillies have good hitting prospects…well, even the Phillies don’t agree with you.

    Phillies rethink minor-league hitting program in hopes of producing more homegrown bats

    When the Phillies splurged on an 11-year contract to land Trea Turner, it bought a certain part of the organization time. The Phillies know nothing is guaranteed, although there is a reason eight spots in their lineup are locked into club control through at least 2025. There are no hitting prospects on the immediate horizon to contribute as everyday players. It’s an organizational weakness, and one the Phillies had been thinking about for the last year as they reimagined how they draft and develop hitters….

    https://theathletic.com/4002306/2022/12/15/phillies-minor-league-hitting-luke-murton/

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    1. I don’t get the Athletic and so cannot read this article, but the Phillies admitting they have a problem and attacking it is huge. Good for them. That’s the first step toward change and progress. And the good news is that they have just done a bang up job the last 2-3 years on the pitchers – we have never had 3 starting pitchers in the system at the same time with ceilings as high as McGarry, Abel and Painter. I’ve said this over and over again, but these guys all sit like 95-98 and all have good, and in the case of McGarry, truly nasty, breaking stuff. Abel has some work to do, but he’s a superb prospect and has just been overshadowed a bit by the prodigy. But damn, Abel also has great stuff!

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      1. The Athletic is well worth the subscription price if only for the Matt Gelb articles. It is very reminiscent of the Sporting News before the advent of the internet.

        I was encouraged by the article, it indicates a recognition of the development problem. In the end DD’s biggest contribution to the Phillies may be that he fixes the drafting and player developments systems that have been broken for too long. One of the interesting comments to the article was from a dad who said his son had been drafted by the Philies and left after 1 year in disgust with the program (admittedly a grain of salt may be needed with that comment)

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    2. Luke Murton’s School on Hitting is the latest in trying to resolve this issue.
      Stott, OHoppe and Bohm seem to do well coming thru the minors.
      And guys like Vierling, Maton, Guthrie, Luke Williams, et al are basically role/utility players and one cannot really expect them to be everyday players, they will be exposed at the plate over the long haul.
      And now returns on high picks like Casey Martin and Ethan Wilson appear to be poor.
      Phillies want to emulate the Braves/Dodgers and now the DBack model…..sometimes there is some luck that goes along with it.
      Hopefully Murton can unlock the secret for them.

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  38. And, v1, that article also states that the focus, throughout the organization, is going to be making contact, and hitting the ball hard. Not one mention of more launch angles, just consistently making contact. It also says that we had tried to copy certain trends, but know that we have not been able to find the right balance. I think being able to make contact should be the first thing to look for in a hitter, but I am glad they are changing the way we are doing things.

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    1. The organization brings up a 1b that we are trying to replace, a SS that we move to 2b, a 3b that we want to move to 1b, no OF’ers, a catcher that we trade for a pitcher for a couple months and no one in the pipeline for a couple years. Let the FAs reign.

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      1. Denny…Phillies appear to do well with their arms and their development.
        One work around…if arm development is the strength of the org…..draft them early and also sign them to big bonuses out of the Latin market.
        Develop them and then move the surplus when they are MLB ready for hitters…ie Sixto for JTR.
        Looks like the Marlins may go that route.
        Different ways to skin a cat.

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    2. I hope they are also emphasizing plate discipline. Unless you’re hitting like .320, to be an effective major league hitter you’re going to also need to hit for some power and/or have a good on base percentage. One of the reasons that Bohm is a borderline offensive player (sorry, he is – at least right now) is that he does not get on base enough and does not hit for enough power. I wouldn’t say his is an empty .290 – but that alone does not make him a good offensive player. He has issues on defense (range), but if he doesn’t start getting on base more or hitting for more power, he’s never going to be anything other than a very mediocre hitter.

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    3. Matt… totally agree again. All the strikeouts just blow my mind. That is not the way I grew up loving playing the game of baseball. That is not to say there were not strikeouts back in the day. There were. But not anything like today. I had one game in the Sectional final where a really good buddy of mine from another high school struck me out three times. I vowed to myself that would never happen again and it did not. Today the guys and the kids just walk back to the dugout as if is no big deal. I see on TV at night and at all the ball parks I attend during the Summer. I sure hope a change is coming to return to something more along the lines of yesteryear.

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  39. It sounds like Phillies will be following the lead of my other team, the Guardians, who stunned baseball by stressing contact and won their division with fewer HRs than any other team.

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    1. …and by stressing contact they had the obvious , fewer Ks (1122) and a above average BA @ .254, for 7th in the majors.

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      1. The way I like to see it played Romus.
        There were like less than 5 hitters in the NL over 300 last year.
        Maybe a handful more in the AL. But overall pathetic.
        Guys can talk about how much harder pitchers throw and they do.
        But I watch every night balls thrown waist high right over the middle of the plate that hitters just look at. There is a reason they allow you to take that piece of wood up to the plate and it is not to just let it sit on your shoulder.

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    2. Wait a minute. It’s one thing to make sure your prospects can hit (if you can’t hit none of your other skills matter very much – hello Casey Martin) and it’s another thing to want a line up full of contact hitters. Let’s not go back to 1975. We want a line-up that generates runs. That’s the goal. Scoring runs. I DON’T want the Guardians offense. Why would I? The Phillies were 7th in runs scored and the Guardians were 15th. That’s not progress. Just keeping it real here – they do have a problem with their farm system with hitting and we all know it (as they veer from organizational philosophy to philosophy – going from being tools oriented (Mary Wolever), to hit oriented (Johnny Alamaraz), to tools oriented (current regime) and now back to the hit tool), but the goal is to produce the next Bryce Harper, not the next Ken Oberkfell. What we need to do is develop hitters who pound the ball and have plate discipline. I’m all for finding guys with a hit tool – but we need a lot more than that.

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  40. catch…I think you would like a mix of the two. I agree on not for all, but the HR should not be for all either. Team needs some guys who can get on base ahead of the boppers.
    CBS has a funny Rumor column up with one on this topic. It mentions the Guardians with swinging line drives, seeing eye singles, and blooping duck farts. I may be Nieve, but I have never heard the phrase duck farts with baseball.

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    1. Don…LOL…never heard it either,
      …..Ben Davis likes the expression….’lawn darts’ for the bloop singles……or as I remember it, the Texas Leaguer.
      Baseball is one sport that has all the corners covered when it comes to expressions and phraseology for what actually is occuring

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      1. Romus…I am almost 70 and I have never heard the phrase duck farts before.
        Maybe because I am not a hunter. LOL>

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        3. Years ago he hit a dying qail and he is a punch and Judy hitter. I guess it’s all the same deal just a change of the times and decades that roll on by.

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  41. STOP!

    V1again. Show me where in Gelb’s article the Phillies are quoted as saying that they don’t have good hitting prospects.

    The ” … no hitting prospects on the immediate horizon … ” comment from the paragraph you took from Gelb’s article is Gelb’s opinion.

    In fact, a lot of the baseball discussions in the article are Gelb’s opinions.

    This type of misrepresentation really bothers me. Both yours and Gelb’s.

    Like

  42. I’m really pissed about this and the stupid comments that made up the following thread. What kind of idiot thinks that hitting instructors at all levels don’t encourage contact?

    I’m stepping away for a while. Before I really lash out. Be back when I cool off.

    If you read the article, read it again. See if you don’t see what I see. Gelb, while providing information, is also still trying to vindicate the trash article he wrote 2 years ago and had to correct (without retractions). And, then tried to resurface a year ago when he thought the firing of driveline coaches vindicated him again. They weren’t fired but promoted. Little weasel has an axe to grind. Watch out for his opinions versus facts.

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    1. Hey Jim

      Sorry if I upset you man. I really didn’t intend to say something that would upset you so much. I honestly don’t know what I said that was so bad.

      I think that it is well documented that the Phillies farm is pretty weak and that the strength of that weak system is the 3 pitchers at the top. I doubt you can find a scouting service that ranks our position players high beyond Crawford, who is an elite athlete, but is really far away. Rojas has some projection too, but a really big risk with the hit tool. And I like Lee, but not sure what he really projects to be. So I don’t think that is a really controversial take.

      This point in the article really summarizes it well:
      “It’s an organizational weakness, and one the Phillies had been thinking about for the last year as they reimagined how they draft and develop hitters.”

      I think the fact that they are changing minor league hitting instructor and process is strong evidence that they don’t think that it is going well with position player development. You don’t fire a hitting coach who is doing a great job developing hitters.

      According to MLB, the best hit tools are:
      Hit: 55 — Justin Crawford (Simon Muzziotti). Crawford is 4+ years away and Muzziotti is not a prospect. And those are our best hit tools.
      Power: 55 — Jhailyn Ortiz (Jordan Viars). Again Ortiz is not a prospect and Viars might be in 3-4 years, but he is really far away.

      So I don’t see why it is so offensive to say that we have a weak farm system for position players. But is the point that you don’t want any negative comments on the blog? Only positive comments about prospects?

      Like

  43. Jim, I also read the Gelb article. I took it to mean that the organization is either changing or tweaking, or doing something with their approach, and making sure that there is corroboration amongst departments, with everyone on the same page, and involving Kevin Long so that his beliefs are incorporated. Those are from Mattingly. Doesn’t that suggest that it is different from what was happening previously? And, do you, personally, believe that there are good hitting prospects in the system? My opinion is that our high level Pitching prospects far outweigh our high level hitting prospects.

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    1. I didn’t read the article so cannot comment on it but it’s no mystery that this system is extremely light on hitting prospects. Why that is true is subject to debate.

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  44. Sorry, Jim, I was typing while you were typing about stepping away. Did not want to upset you. Did not read your post before I did mine, so no intentions to provoke any further upset.

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      1. Kepler is superfluous to them. He’s coming off a career worst season (despite 2.1 WAR). He’s owed $9.5M. Twins could use a lefty-hitting 2B who is cheap and controllable.

        I’d rather try to get a jump on the trade market before things get crazy like they did with the FA market.

        Like

        1. Interesting. The thing with Maton is that, if you asked me to name a player on the Phillies who could come out of nowhere and turn into a first division regular, it would be Maton. There’s just something about him – I like him a lot and, I think maybe the Phillies throw him out in right field because I think he’s pretty close to taking off as a hitter. Like really taking off. I think there could be a little Ben Zobrist in Maton.

          The guy I would be entirely open to trading is Bohm. He’s a bit of an enigma, but I am not sure he will ever have enough plate discipline or power to be a really good player. I think there’s a very good chance that what we are seeing is exactly what he is, but I think he has some trade value now – a lot more than Hoskins and, frankly, he’s a guy I might look to trade – at least I’d be open to that possiblity.

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          1. Bohm is one I think is about to take the next step. He had immediate success in his first go, then struggled, then bounced back. He made the adjustments to get back to where he was, now it’s time to make adjustments to add some power (without losing too much BA). The fact that he was able to come back from the depths (both offensively and defensively, if we take into account his early season woes) tells me he’s capable of making tweaks like that.

            That being said, if we can get a good value in a trade for him I’d do it. I’m not trading him for a change-of-scenery candidate, but a legitimate regular for a contending club? Sure. And if a team wants him as the centerpiece for a real difference maker? Absolutely.

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            1. I would trade him to prime the pump – rebuild the system. They would be fine with Sosa at third for at least a year and maybe more – and he would seriously improve the infield defense.

              Also, I know he could take a big step forward with the bat – but that’s the mystery. I am not so sure he will.

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            2. I would trade Bohm before the dye is cast. Many teams would see him as a cheaper (for now), younger option at either 3b or 1b. Hit tool is there, if someone can tap into his power. Defensively, forget about it. Stick him where he’ll hurt you least. That may vary from team to team. But I would certainly look to upgrade the outfield. Marsh will get his opportunity but maybe as a RF, not CF. So go get us a bonafide CF, DD. And use Bohm as a piece. I agree that Sosa fills a temporary need as a glove first replacement, and improves the defense exponentially.

              Like

          2. I wanted to Bohm traded after his rookie season. He came up, showed some great numbers, and Nolan Arenado was on the block. It just made too much sense for a team ready to win now. Fast forward 3 years and we are still waiting for Bohm to tap into some power and play passable defense. I kind of feel that he is what he is at this point. He will be 26/27 years old. When is he going to take the next step?

            If we were to trade Bohm, it would have to be for a pitcher or stud reliever. I can’t trade Bohm for prospects. I can deal with Sosa at third (or maybe a segura reunion?), but if we could nab a cheap, controllable, and effective arm for Bohm, I jump on it!

            But back to my original post. It doesn’t have to be Max Kepler, but it would be nice to get someone competent to play RF everyday until Bryce comes back. I think there are a few trades to be made and I’m excited to see what Dombrowski does.

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  47. With the Yankees $27M AAV contract for 6 years with Carlos Rodon……the Phillies should jump now on a Nola extension with the same amount AAV and also 6 years.

    Like

    2. Agree entirely. The Yankees did the Phillies a huge indirect favor by reaching this agreement, which was a really good one by the Yankees. If you had asked me before the Trea Turner contract, whether I would rather have the Turner deal (which is probably going to SUCK the last 3-4 years) or this one with Rodon, I might have chosen the Rodon deal.

      I love Trea Turner (he’s a great player – no doubt about it – and he fit their needs almost perfectly), and his AAV is really good (and I get that’s part and parcel of the long-term deal, which allowed the AAV to be lower). But in 5 or 6 years, some Phillies GM not named Dave Dombrowski is going to be pretty unhappy about that anchor that will be weighing down his payroll for several years to come. I don’t mind overpaying a player, but I mind multiple, dead, expensive contract years. That money just sits there with no corresponding benefit.

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      1. If Wheeler and Nola win 15-20+ games each this year, followed by Ranger and Walker with 12-15 each & the #5 slot of many around 10+, and bullpen continues without injuries, we could be seeing a Red Wave at The Banc again with better results at the end.

        Like

      2. Dan O’Dowd had an interesting take on these 10 plus year contracts players are now signing.
        He said the Pujols/Miggy body type players…corner infielders , for the most part, wear down at sooner pace as they age then the athletic middle infielders, like the Turners, Lindors et al….though he did say Correa’s body make-up with a larger frame will probably slide over to third base towards latter part of hs contract with the Giants.
        Hope he is correct on Turner. If we ca get a good 7 or 8 years with Turner then it could be a really good thing. I suppose he will slide to 2B at some point.

        Like

        1. Romus, How do you know all these things? Your so smart, I Would go 25 million for 5 for Nola even though i am not a big fan of his, But you are so smart i will follow you to hell and back, with your knowledge of Baseball , Ballroom dancing , Stock Market, Christmas movies, Wines, Good rest homes, and Camping

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          1. Not only that Rocco but Romu knows how to use the Resource section of this page. I hope I did not blow it. He said top secret. Hmm. Maybe he will not see this.

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        2. My realistic goal for Trea Turner is to give us 30 WAR during his contract. This is also assuming that maybe his last two years are negative WAR. That is the absolute baseline with a possibility for 40+.

          But 35 WAR would be a huge win over the next 11 years.

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  48. One-night awhile back before any of the Big 3 pitchers signed, they were asked who they would prefer to have. Both of the guys and I think O’Dowd was on that night. Not sure. Both picked Verlander doing a 2-year contract over deGrom or Rodon getting at that time maybe a 3- or 4-year deal because of the injury factor. Now both got more 5 and 6 years. BTW Romus Rodon was one of the MLB guys who worked out at Grand Park last year during lockout.
    Here is a dumb question on my part. How do MLB guys get paid? All year? or only during the season? Brinks? LOL Weekly, Bimonthly, Monthly? I just thought of that last night seeing Rodon deal. I am sure someone on here knows the answer. I know NFL get paid weekly during the season. You always hear them say Game Checks. Thanks.

    Like

    1. Signing bonuses are lump sums, the rest is a salary they receive every 2 weeks generally. They’re taxed based on where each individual game is played ( so they’re subject to CA taxes for the games they play in CA, for example).

      All of this is what I was told by a couple of players, so there could be some misunderstandings or it could vary depending on the player. But no one with any insider knowledge has corrected me thus far.

      Like

      1. Oh, and it’s only paid during the season. Post-season play and Spring Training are subject to difference pay structures.

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        1. Thanks Dan. I knew they were taxed on games played in different states and cities. I suppose same is true for Canada games as well.
          For some reason after I posted the Rodon deal, I just wondered how they were officially paid. I saw where Thor could earn another 1.5M if he reached certain incentives. I do not have any insider info, so you sound good to me.
          I wonder if the teams pay the agents fees on the contracts or if the player does. It would make some difference on the tax paid.

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          1. Don…agents get a their small % of the contract’s total value…paid by the player.
            I remember Drew Rosenberg would advertise to get players to sign up with him….he only took a 3% cut of the contract’s value.

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  49. officially sign Taijuan Walker and waived Tayler Scott, who I honestly did not know we claimed from the Padres.

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  50. Phillies are reportedly interested in Seth Lugo as a reliever although he wants to start, according to Jon Heyman….FWIW.

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    2. For the right price, Lugo is a nice middle reliever. I have no problem with that. He’s a useful player.

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  51. Old friend Trevor May signs with the A’s, 1 yr/$7M. I would not have minded him. Rogers and Chafin still out there. They are #1 and #2 on my present wish list.

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  52. Indulge me if you would. The English football (soccer) teams are broken up into 3 divisions. There is the Premier League which is the top division that has 20 clubs. Next is the Sky Bet Championship division that consists of 24 clubs. Then there is League One with 24 clubs.

    The Premiere division has the best players, obviously, who are paid accordingly. After every season the top three teams in Sky Bet are promoted to Premiere and the bottom three clubs in Premiere are demoted to Sky Bet. The largest stadiums and the best attendance are in the top two divisions.

    This would never happen in MLB but imagine if it did. Last season there were 14 teams that played above .500, 14 teams that played below .500 and two teams at 81-81 (SF and CWS). What if the top 15 teams played all their games against each other and the bottom 15 did the same thing?

    Of course this would be crazy because the Red Sox would be in the lower half. The point I’m trying to make? Only the teams (with one or two exceptions) that spend a lot of money for their players have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, let alone playing over .500 baseball.

    Can you imagine being a fan of the Marlins? A’s? Royals? etc. Those teams for the most part have made few or no moves this off season. Their chances of making the post season are “nil” (soccer speak for none). Has baseball gotten to the point where the rich get richer/ the poor get poorer mean that there should be two divisions?

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    1. The play-offs would have to be tailored and altered to accommodate large vs small market teams.
      For example…two divisions of 15 teams in each division broken down by a large market team division and a small market team division.
      IMO….the large market div. could have 8 teams make the playoffs….and the small market would have 4 teams. Then seed them according to regular season records.
      The discrepancy of 8 vs 4 based on the fact the large market teams fork out the more money for their roster make-up.

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  53. Here is another for those of you more into things than I am.
    There is a story up right now on ESPN about a linebacker at Army who thought that he was going to be able to be drafted and serve his 5 years after playing in the NFL.
    Apparently, there is a bill that has passed through Congress that has rescinded this option for military athletes. This has been available since 19 I believe it said. My question is would Snow have had this same option coming out of Navy. I do not recall the years involved for him. I just kind of read through the highlights but I think I got most of it. Kiper had the linebacker at his 22nd pick. Guess the kid had chances to leave and collect on the NIL money out there but chose to stay. His coach and family just learned of this change after the Army/Navy game last week.
    I am sure there are some here who are much more knowledgeable about all of these workings. I just wondered how Snow may or may not have been affected by this. He may have been before 2019.

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    1. Also, read an article where Tatis insists he’s a shortstop. What do you make of that? I think SD would be more than glad to unload him as I am sure he is personna non grata after what he put them (SD) through.

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      1. SD will have a ton of trouble moving the Tatis contract based on his injury history and PD suspension. He is signed through 2034! and still owed over $300 million.

        He also has full no trade protection so he can decide if he wants to go somewhere else and exactly where. My guess is they will sell him that he will be the SS in 2024 with Boegarts moving to 3b when Machado opts out of his deal.

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  55. There were 97 MLB players with a wRC+ of greater than 100 last year. Meaning, across many hitting stats, their ability to create runs was greater than average.

    Of those, 56 had 20+ homers. Of this high homer cohort, the average K rate was 22%. The average walk rate was 9.4%

    Of the 41 sub 20 homer cohort, the average K rate was 17% and the average walk rate was 9%.

    Only 7 players had a K rate over 20%, with less than 20 homers and a wRC+ of > 100.

    My point, there are really only two models of successful MLB hitters:
    1. Big slugger, who walks a lot.
    2. High contact guy who also walks a lot

    There is no such player who strikes out a lot, doesn’t walk a lot and has limited power. No matter what his minor league batting average is. Keep that in mind when voting for our top 30.

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    1. That is an interesting and very telling analysis.
      Wonder what the final tally would have been , ilo of HRs >20……using ISO….e.g. >.200

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      1. Of the 97 players with a wRC+ of > 100:

        38 had an ISO > .200. Their average K rate was 22% and average walk rate was 9.8%.

        Of the sub .200 ISO cohort, K rate average was 18.3% and bb rate average was 8.8%

        Pretty much the same as a 20 homer filter. Again the key is to understand the two archetypes of a successful MLB hitter.
        1. Big power, High K rate but also High Walk rate
        2. Average power, sub 20% K rate and a 9% walk rate.

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    2. v1…that last paragraph unfortunately seems to describe Scott Kingery as time played on. Really sad. It looked like at the beginning he was going to be something special. Hope the best for him.

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      2. Don……….the best has already happened for him! Klentak took care of that when he made him a mult-millionaire.

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  56. v1, how doe you rank our hitting prospects? I read your comment on DeLaCruz, and I have no problem with how Rojas, Crawford, and Lee Hao Yu are ranked. How about you, and how about the rest?

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    1. honestly, not sure that I am allowed to say something critical about prospects. I seem to have offended Jim an I don’t know what I did wrong.

      I will just say that I am not high on our hitting prospects outside of Crawford (far away) and Lee (don’t know yet what he really could be).

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      1. I thought Jim didn’t want criticism on the poll site which is why I asked you here. I do not want to do something wrong. I believe our Pitching prospects are far ahead of our hitting ones. Yes, hitting a baseball is very difficult. But we are still projecting what the future holds and I have much more confidence in our Pitching prospects.

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  57. I see Nick Ward , 26 years old lead off hitting SS was purchased from Frontier League.
    May be able to play at Reading. Is playin in Australia now.

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  59. Ward appears to be decent filler for the farm. As does the signing of Max McDowell for Reading. I got to see McDowell play just about all of his home games at UConn from 2013-15.

    He doesn’t hit much at all but he is a superb defensive catcher and he will really help to develop young Phillies catchers who come through Reading.

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    1. Swanson made out well ..being the last of the four shortstops to sign, he did better than what people projected…..$25M AAV was a good take for him.

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      1. Very happy to see him NOT resign with the Braves. I’m surprised they let him leave. Yes, they have a possible replacement in the wings …. But they can’t hit on every prospect. Even still, I believe he will be less
        Of a player than Swanson was for them. Factor in the Phillies not getting stomped by the Mets again in 2023, the division should be within reach. Let Thomson manage like he did in the playoffs for the limited division games, going to be fun

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  64. Amount for LHV upgrade from Phillies may be around 5 M, upgrade needs to be done before 2023 season or they could loose AAA franchise . LHV coming up with about 5 M, most upgrades are clubhouse and lights.

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