Per Baseball America:
AAA:BJ Rosenberg, Greg Smith, Brad Lincoln, Koyie Hill, Lars Davis, Sebastian Valle, Jim Murphy, Tyler Henson, Nate Spears, Leandro Castro
AA:Chris Bootcheck, Matt Hoffman, RayWily Gomez, Zach Collier, Albert Cartwright
High A: Brandon Short
The name that scares me on here is Sebastian Valle. He has underachieved with the Phillies organization but continues to have a solid skill set and still is only 24 years old. With so little true talent at catcher around major league baseball, Valle will be given a legitimate shot with another organization.
I wouldn’t worry too much about Valle. Castro actually strikes me as the prospect who could become something. Not much of something.
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I think they both could be gone. Neither looks like an impact player at this point but I agree with you that Castro may have more upside.
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I think the two recently signed OFs signals the end for Castro.
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By and large a total accumulation of dregs. I imagine Gillick/Amaro will be very busy signing AAAA replacements soon.
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Assuming they don’t re-sign any of these guys, I find it odd that they would add two 30 year old OFs to LHV and let go of two younger, almost equally as good OFs; meaning Castro and Henson.
There also may still be a shred of hope for Collier, since he only just turned 24. Letting Valle go is pretty unsurprising considering how little he played last year.
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They didn’t let any of these guys go. The guys have 6 years in the minors and are exploring FA. They could re-sign with the Phillies. The only way to prevent these minor leaguers from moving to FA would be to put them on the 40-man roster and none of them is worth it. Collier has been on the 40-man, but was removed, because his AA hitting has been inadequate.
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Do you guys have a list of minor league free agents for all teams? It would be kind of fun to go through the list and see if there are any interesting “untapped potential” names in there
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Great idea. There are always a few players who become minor league free agents or who are plucked away during the Rule 5 draft who turn into really good major leaguers. The Phillies should be taking calculated risks with these types of players.
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‘Are you crazy?”….as the guy tells blond Carrie Wiita in the Geico ad about Poor Decisions in Horror Movies.
https://www.google.com/#q=Geico+Commercial+Horror+Movie
The Phillies had their one gem in Victorino…they used their allotment already in choices….now lets head for the cemetery.
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I think the Phillies are so talent deprived that they cannot ignore any potential source for future players. Minor league free agents are one such source. These are virtual no cost acquisitions and if they don’t work out, guess what, you just release the player.
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Go to this link to find Minor League free agents seaking major league deals.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/minor-league-free-agents-finding-major-league-deals.html
Hope that helps
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Another Roman Quinn article emphasizing his game-changing speed:
Also quoting a PhutuePhillies posting.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/Roman_Quinn_impressing_at_Arizona_Fall_League.html
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The extra attention paid to Quinn shows that the FO is committed to him even if it takes more time than they expected which were detoured by his loss of playing time for injuries. He was concentrated on in this post season by his trip to the AFL. That was a sign of the hurry-up aimed at one of whom there were/are great expectations: understandable that the FO is hungry to show Phans that there is hope for this weak/old team.
The question is whether the two areas (CFing/contact) will be fixed and, if so, when? A renewal in the persons of Crawford, Valentin, Nola and Quinn would go a long way in forming the nucleus of the near future team, and give fading fans something to wonder on. Then, some good trades to bring back further prospects would get the franchise on track…..IF they now draft with Sabremetrics infused in choices. That’s a big IF– given the recent history of draft choices.
This off-season COULD go along way to get this done (Hamels, pls–trade!) when we add the return prospects to the above hopefuls. The opportunity exists; can Gillick, Monty, and Amaro be equal to the task? If so,THEN, a competitive could emerge in 2 years, or 3.
Stay tuned to this off-season’s vital happenings.
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Excuse terrible grammar!!
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I don’t understand the hit tool on Quinn. In his natural side he is hitting close to 300, Also now they are reporting san diego is front runner for tomas/
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Not sure a power hitting right-handed bat would be thrilled about playing in PetCo.
Of course, the money can change his mind.
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ArtD…….drafting with Sabremetrics infusion is rather difficult, especially with HS players…college players may be a bit easier.
Using metrics for acquiring existing MiLB and MLB players would be more efficient, I would think.
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That may be easier to apply to college players than HS guys…yet how come certain teams do well in scouting and choosing HS draftees who do turn out to yield MLB players, but the Phils have done mostly terribly with their HS picks.
There must be an explanation for this. IMO, it DOES involve using Sabremetics as much as possible together with better scouting. Our scouts also may need more help from info outside of their look-see and perhaps the scouting corps needs to be updated which means hiring outside the present group whose history is terrible for the last 6-7 years.
Finding “hidden” gems has been beyond the reach of the present corps.
So…the problem is two-fold: better scouts/scouting (beyond the self-satisfied present corps) and using the stats to aid them and the front office.
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Well what kind of a metric-orientated data base can you use for HS seniors?
They play in so many different leagues and against so many varied competition.
IMO, the scouts are the key element or critical point of evaluation of HS seniors.
I think metrics would be the last thing I would use for HS senior evals, unless you want to count combine numbers as metrics i.e. 40 times, home-to-first speed, home-to-home speed, ht and wt and strength and weight-lifting criteria..
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I was always wondering the exact same thing. You CAN’T use saber-metrics while drafting. You can’t do it with High School OR College players. The numbers that they are putting up is while facing a majority of players who aren’t of the professional variety. Even in the top conferences the vast majority of players that they are playing against will never play professional baseball.
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Well there are some statistics you could use. For example, Pitch f/x would be useful (although I doubt available for most, if not all, players below the major league level) for getting a sense of what kind of movement a kid has on his pitches.
But for prospects, high schoolers especially, the advanced information that should be most used (in my opinion) is kinesiology. More than anything else, I want to know that what a kid is doing to be successful won’t cause him to break down over time. Other than that, you need to know how they will develop (which is basically impossible to know) physically, mentally, and emotionally.
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Moneyball started with the use of saber-metrics on college kids. HS is a lot tougher and the As had mixed results with the college kids they picked. At each level you can certainly look at actual performance stats, instead of just tools, and try to sub-divide that into good vs poor competition. Scouts do that, also. I remember we drafted OF Mike Anderson based upon how he performed against our first round pitcher that season. You certainly can avoid being anti-saber and doing the super optimistic, I can dream better than I can think, projections of power from batting practice and general performance from general athleticism and speed. Hewitt and LGJ were both actively anti-saber first round picks, as was Hudson in the second round. If you are using a primo pick on a HS kid, he should at least be a guy who performed well on the field against good competition, even if that limits you by tossing out his HS league stats and relying on his showcase performances. If the better HS pitchers make him look bad, then first or second round is too early to gamble on his athleticism and raw tools. This is especially true of the Phillies, whose scouts seem to do especially bad at this.
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I think some of you guys are too narrowing focused on the concept of “saber-metrics.” Modern analysis is about much more that just statistical metrics. No one – not even the A’s back in the day – propose using modern statistical metrics to judge HS or really even college talent. But even so, modern analysis DOES have something to say about drafting decisions – chiefly with regard to studies of what types of draftees have more or less success in professional baseball. e.g., college versus high school, “young” HS seniors versus “old” HS seniors, etc.
That said, it has always been and remains true that scouting is the most important factor in drafting decisions.
Of course once a player becomes a professional, there is a bigger role – and an increasing one – for modern analysis. Which is a LOT more than statistical metrics.
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Of all the guys on the list, the most intriguing to me is Henson. He’s a big guy who plays multiple positions and can hit a little. I could see him as a 25th man on a major league roster. The others, sadly, don’t excite me anymore. There was a time losing one of Valle, Castro, or Collier would have been concerning but that time has passed.
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I really don’t understand why the Phils didn’t give guys like Castro and Valle some big league September ABs before letting them go. I, like most on here, don’t believe either will have decent MLB careers, but I’d rather see them get a chance here when there is nothing to lose vs another team. Nobody would have ever thought Vogelsong and Moss would have done what they have, but it happened.
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I am not sure anything of value could have been gained about these players future performance in small sample size of a September call up. It would have been horrible if they had done well in the September call up and then the Phillies chose to waste 40-man spots on them. Moss and Vogelsong are completely different cases because both had at least some modicum of Major League success/experience before they were in the Phillies minor leagues. In the end Castro, Valle, et. al didn’t have enough success to warrant a 40-man slot. If I recall correctly both were exposed to the rule 5 draft last year (and Castro years before) and were not thought highly enough to be picked by other teams.
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Buddy I might be wrong but Moss hit in minors, valle hasn’t so why give him any big league time. I cant understand your idea on why any team would give some one who hasnt earned a chance, big league at bats, imo makes no sense.
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Roccom, Rupp hit .165 in AAA last year then got called up and hit .183
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you just answered the question, Rupp stunk . why try it again, makes no sense to me.
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HaHa. Yes he did.
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If the Cubs sign FA Russell Martin as their catcher… and do not ink Lester, I think they will pursue Hamels more fervently.
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I keep hearing no big name free agents for cubs. I don’t understand the martin signing, he wont be there in three years, Which is what I read is when the cubs will be good and fill in roster with fa.
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rocco…if the Cubs do sign Martin, he might be the transition guy until Kyle Schwarber or Vic Caratini. or whoever they have targeted for their future catcher, are ready. I assume part of the Hoyer/Epstein strategic long-term planning.
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A smart GM says that they are not spending big bucks because if you do you drive up the price.
Teams know they have money to spend but you don’t go out and say it to drive up the market value.
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Reports are Amaro wants 3 top prospects with 2 being MLB ready for Hamels.
In other reports, Cole will be the Opening Day starter next season and nobody will be traded.
It looks like he learned nothing from the trade deadline.
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What I find intriguing is the secrecy behind Hamels’ new wish list.
When he made up the prior list…..it was broadcast and listed in the media without any reservations, of course he was an untouchable at that time.
But this time it is cloaked in secrecy….either by him or the team.
Not sure what to read in that strategy.
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Despite your two thumbs down, you are absolutely correct.
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I hate RAJ as a GM, but I have to say, setting the price high for Hamels is fine. Hamels is the kind of guy who can turn a team into a WS contender. You have to pay for that. You can’t just take back one good prospect and a bunch of fringe guys. If the one good one doesnt work out, the trade goes down as a disaster. Phillies didnt want junk for Papelbon, and it turned out that the Tigers really could have used him in the post season. Lots of teams that backed off of getting the “missing piece” because god forbid they give up some prospects ended up exiting the playoffs earlier than hoped. Hamels is a rare commodity, and making teams pay a large price ifthey want him his fine.
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I’m generally in your camp.
I believe the Phillies will be able to maximize Hamels’ value at the trade deadline if he pitches well this year. A team would have him for a stretch drive and then three cost-controlled years thereafter. In this day and age, that’s pretty good and I’m not sure there will be anyone else on the market who another team can acquire who is in the prime of his career, proven in the postseason, and who is under team control for a decent period of time, but not too long (at a fairly heavy price).
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Once again, it’s futile to debate what a player is “worth” in the abstract. He’s worth what the market says he’s worth. That’s less than Amaro is asking, and less than many around here think he is worth. Keep in mind that ALL of the teams who are in the mix for him favor modern evaluation methods which tend to mean lesser returns for a guy like Hamels.
That said, yes, as always, there is a case to be made for not trading him if you’re “only” going to get one premium prospect and some lesser prospects. I even have a little sympathy for this position – if the headline prospect is “only” a top 50 (not top 25) prospect, then the second piece better be pretty darn good as well.
But in deciding what’s a big enough return, “the trade [could go] down as a disaster” is a lousy standard. ANY trade could go down as a disaster. More to the point, NOT trading him could go down as a disaster, if, say, he blows out his arm in spring training next year. Not an entirely abstract point, as we saw with Lee.
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it is all about risk, isn’t it now
As I have said in the past ad nauseum, Ruben is a risk adverse GM
However, not sure where Gillick stands on that issue.
And moving Hamels is a big risk venture.
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Given the time frame for a return to contention, I think that not trading him is the bigger risk if the sole concern is returning to contention. That’s assuming that you do get back a “top” prospect, though arguably even true for a lesser return. (That is, in the time frame of 2017-2021 just about any top prospect is less “risky” than Hamels.)
But there are other concerns (e.g., respectability in the meantime), and of course the option of waiting to trade him exists, so I do favor holding out for a good return. My definition of a “good” return just differs from Amaro’s. As you say, the determining factor may be Gillick’s (unknown) position on how much he needs to get back for Hamels.
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I would add that, while I see what you mean about Amaro being “risk adverse,” I would not characterize him that way. He is adverse to certain kind of risks, but not to others. To some extent, that tracks the “unproven prospect, proven veteran” dichotomy, though most of his recent signings of older players are defensible.
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I would not call Amaro risk adverse. He just has no idea how to be a seller in the trade market.
That was proven at the trade deadline.
He sets his price too high which is why the story got leaked. I am sure GM’s have inquired and they will look elsewhere in free agency or trade.
If he wants to make a deal he needs to come down off the mountain and enter into reality.
Like Larry said, you probably get a top level prospect, a mid-level, and a bunch of A level guys to fill out some rosters.
Teams will not just at trading 3 MLB ready guys. They will shop around and find a slightly lesser pitcher at a bigger discount making that trade much more attractive.
Other teams are not going to do the rebuilding process for Amaro.
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I’m actually a tiny (tiny) amount more optimistic than you ascribe to me here. That is, I see the “A” level guys more as real prospects, but ones with flaws and therefore … lottery tickets … as opposed to just guys to “fill out some rosters.”
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I agree with all of this, yet I wouldn’t be in a rush to trade Hamels, if Gillick believes he can turn things around in 2017. I also agree with the post above that Hamels is worth more at the trade deadline.
There are just too many alternatives on the FA market for Hamels to have close to the market value some posters claim. Lester costs no prospects. His salary and years will be a bit more $/yr and more years, but cost no prospects or picks. Same for Scherzer, accept he costs a draft pick. With these two available, why would someone pay the equivalent of multiple primo-slot first rounders who are already largely developed for Hamels? Hamels isn’t all that different from Lester and Scherzer.
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Agreed (with the minor caveat that I would be marginally more willing to trade him than you would be.)
The best hope for a significant overpay is if the Cubs decide to go all in, basically Martin and two aces. They likely won’t be able to sign two aces, which essentially means one FA and Hamels.
But even setting aside the fact that it is by no means clear that they will go all in, I STILL don’t see them giving up the dream package that Amaro is asking for. But they have enough organizational depth that one prime prospect, a solid second piece, and a couple of lottery tickets, is a real possibility.
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danurda8888…generally agree.
Not sure what teams Hamels has on his new list, but if the Cubs are not in play, then I would concentrate on the Sox as a trade partner, since he had them on his original list and assume it is still on his latest list.
And the Sox want a lefty bat for third, and if Sandoval signs elsewhere, and they meet this week for discussions, then I would package Hamels and Asche and see what they will give in return.
They have a glut of OFers…….Betts, Castillo, Cespedes, Nava, Victorino, Craig, and Bradley Jr., plus guys like Brentz and a prospect like Margot or Ramos.
I am sure they would offer one of those of lesser value.
Ruben has stood firm in the past for return value, and it failed him last July.
Interesting to see how this off-season plays out.
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Romus, out of your list I would be only interested the young players such as Betts, Castillo, Nava and Bradley(hitting is very questionable interest is minimal) as any other outfielders would defeat the rebuilding process unless no one else is ready to take over. For me, any deal with the Red Sox will have to include Mookie Betts as the headliner and the supporting pieces can vary.
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I would love Bradley as a throw in to a larger deal. I still think he can be good.
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Murray the red sox would drive Bradley to philadlephia. They have seen another he cant hit. and would love to unload him for hamels.
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He’s hit in the minors, there’s ability there. He’s not a headliner in any deal but I expect he’ll get moved (will Dom get moved also?)
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philabalt…..If by some slim and remote chance the Sox were to part with Betts….he may be the only headliner in a prospect package for Hamels…..you may have to settle for two added fringe prospects, ie their 20/25th prospects range.
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That’s would be alright with me but others might not agree.
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The thing about Betts – and this is one of the reasons (but not the only one) why he is essentially untouchable – is that the risk factor on him is very low. Yes, 213 major league at bats isn’t a huge sample, but it’s enough of a sample, combined with his minor league record, and given his performance in the most important fundamental stats (BB%, K%, ISO) to make the risk of a complete flame out extraordinarily low, and the chance of stardom quite high.
I would say that Betts’ expected value is higher than Hamels over the next four to 5 years, the risk lower (position player versus pitcher), the years of control longer, and the salary far far lower.
Some would object to the above I suppose – though I’m not sure on what basis. But the point is that that’s likely the same conclusion that the Red Sox will reach. They likely wouldn’t trade Betts straight up for Hamels AND Franco.
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I looked up betts numbers. The kid is very impressive in the minors. How can anyone turn down a top lefthand pitcher for a unproven player. Hamels is a proven winner and mvp of a world series. betts has proven he can hit minor league pitching. I hope to god your kidding.
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I’m quite serious. No time for a long defense of my position, just three quick notes:
(1) It’s pretty clear from various reports that the Boston front office sees it the same way that I do. Now, people may differ as to how much weight to place upon that fact, but (a) the Boston front office has, IMO, unlike some organizations I can name, established a certain amount of credibility in the realm of player evaluation, and (b) regardless of whether they are “right” in some abstract sense, it’s up to them whether or not Betts gets traded.
(2) Betts isn’t just “very impressive in the minors.” He is a highly regarded prospect from a scouting perspective who plays a premium defensive position (CF or 2B) who has performed at a star level in over 200 major league PA. Query – I don’t know the answer to this, but I have a pretty good educated guess – how many prospects who meet all of those criteria flamed out in the majors? I’m sure it’s happened, but I can’t remember anyone. Flame outs of top prospects certainly happen, and flame outs of lesser prospects who get off to great major league starts happen, but I can’t think of ANY who tick both of those boxes who haven’t gone on to at least solid major league careers. At least among position players. Sure, there is some risk, but that leads me to:
(3) Your biggest mistake, shared by many, is under estimating the risk factor on Hamels. How many ace starting pitchers Hamels age avoid injury and/or decline through their early to mid thirties? I don’t have a study or numbers for you, but starting pitchers are fragile. I am confident in saying that it is more likely than not that Hamels will suffer serious injury or decline over the next 4 to 5 years.
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A big reason Betts won’t be traded is that he can help Boston in 2015. He’s already passed his MLB initiation test. So… this isn’t trading a prospect for an MLB SP, it’s trading an MLB position player for an MLB SP. It might benefit Boston to trade some MLB offense for some MLB pitching, but that isn’t nearly as large a net increase in MLB talent as they get if they trade guys who won’t help the major league team in 2015.
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I think Gillick’s involvement makes it much more likely that hamels will get traded. I also think Byrd will go and possibly together with Hamels. However the market wil need to play out first to see where Lester and Scherzer go. The Cubs and Red Sox will offer little initially until it becomes a competition. They know the Phils want to trade and teams will try to take advantage of them.
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3 top prospects for Hamels is crazy high considering a team could sign an ace in free agency. Yes you will pay more and for more years, but you do not lose 3 top prospects who could very well be core guys for your organization long term.
At the time we gave up quite a bit for Halladay. I would do that trade again any day of the week. I don’t believe any players we traded for Halladay have made an allstar team as of now. D’arnaud has been a legitimate prospect, but injuries have limited him and you have to wonder about catchers who have numerous injuries so young. Toronto really didn’t get any players to really help them rebuild.
On the contrary, “The Braves sent rookie catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and four minor leaguers to Texas for the powerful, switch-hitting Teixeira.” Those 4 minor leaguers ended up being Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Beau Jones. Had Atlanta not made that trade Feliz makes atlanta’s bullpen that much better. They could have Simmons and Andrus up the middle. Harrison isn’t a star but he’s had a couple nice seasons for Texas. The Braves gave up all those players for what could have been a year and a half of Texieria , but they traded him the following deadline.
I bring up those trades to say this. You never know what prospects will bust and which will become stars. Brown for example is a bust, but we picked up 2/3 of our World series OF (Werth and Victorino) in the rule 5 draft. LarryM is spot on about how the return you get is based on the current market. There isn’t a format that lays out what a fair or good return should be in a trade. Right now with a few top pitching free agents and other notable starters available through trade Hamels value isn’t peak. IMO we wait until the deadline and move him for the best package we can. Its up to the scouts to make sure any players we trade for are worth it,
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There are both pros and cons about trading in the off-season or waiting to the trade deadline.
Waiting for the trade deadline in July limits your market.
There are fewer teams in contention at that point of July and of those in contention, maybe just a few are willing or have a need to trade for Hamels.
Then there is the question about the strength and quality of the farm system and prospects available that one would partner with in a trade.
The Cubs and Sox seem to have the strongest systems bow, they may not be players come July.
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Based on what I have seen from the most analytic minds in the game these teams use pitching to acquire prospects and prospects to acquire pitching so why should the Phillies treat it any different than say the package Shields brought to the Rays or Samardja to the Cubs?
I’m talking specifically pitching with multiple years of control. It seems to be the consensus of those minds that the cost of pitching on the open market is too high.
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As per The Score, the Red Sox are on Hamels no trade list.
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The issue with the Red Sox no-trade clause is that Hamels could OK it IF the Sox agree now to the option extension for another season.
The scariest thing about the Phils making trades is that the last few have been disasters.
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Can we just give the Royals $50 of the $60 Million and do that deal already?
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Amaro probably wants a MLB player from the top portion of their farm system in return.
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Per The Score, the Blue Jays have inquired about Hamels, Utley, and Bastardo.
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Leandro Castro! Can we go back and substitute him for the PTBNL and get back Santana?
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A ‘notoriously hitter-friendly environment that is the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO)’
Can someone tell me what makes the KBO a very hitter-friendly environment?.
This seems to be a continual thread when discussing Korean players…pitchers or position players.
Is it just the OF dimensions or something to do with climate/weather conditions?
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OF dimensions
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thanks
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Franco hot hitting in DWL:
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/sports/phillies/Franco-off-to-hot-start-in-winter-ball.html
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Well at least someone is having a good Winter League and has no injuries so far. I hope Franco will be our 1B next year.
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Interesting Former Phillies minor leaguer Bryan Morgado picked up by the Marlins. He split time between York and Camden of the Atlantic league. After suffering a shoulder injury last season he is now throwing side arm.
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I wonder if the Phillies will also be in play for 19-year old Yoan Moncada…another Cuban phenom, once he is declared eligible!
Looks like the past few years of big international spending of the Cubs, Yankees, Rangers and Red Sox may thwart their efforts in signing him depending on the official signing period he becomes eligible, since they went over their monetary international allotment
Now that would be justice.
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I’d like to see them sign him. If the scouts are right about him, he’s special. Certainly worth the money, and worth two years of not being able to sign pricey international free agents.
But it would be pretty uncharacteristic – not because the organization is “cheap,” but because of the apparent desire to “support the commissioner.”
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The Phillies finally signed Franceouer to a miner league deal. I know they always coveted him, although no one knows why. Henson wasn’t announced so I’m guessing he’s gone. They signed Chase DArnaud as insurance against Cesar Hernandez leaving and they brought Canzler back. He’ll probably play first with Murphy not coming back. No word on Valle.
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Franceour’s defense use to be be average with a strong accurate arm…not sure anymore…however, he may have slowed up more then before.
Still remember him, as a Met, hitting into the triple play to Eric Bruntlett who was leaning towards second base, that sealed the win and helped seal the season for the Phillies.
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Now Hamels has said that he wants to get traded this offseason.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2014/11/12/cole-hamels-trade-chances/18945013/
The December Winter Meetings are going to be a blast.
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Cannot see where Hamels is quoted in the article.
Naturally it is Ruben being quoted for Hamels.
Hearsay to some degree..
When Hamels talked a few weeks ago he was very diplomatic about the notion of being traded.
Still cannot understand why his wish-list of ten teams is not published.
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It was leaked by his agent to try and force some movement on a deal.
I think the top 10 list is being held under close wraps because of a potential trade. Cole may have dropped teams like the Cubs and Red Sox to get the final year guaranteed.
It is a cat and mouse game between Cole, his agent, the Phillies, and teams interested in acquiring him.
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Yes, saw were Bob Nightengale of USA made the claim about Hamels saying he wanted to go this off-season.
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Philly.com reports the Phils signed 8 players to minor league deals (some we already knew about) with major league spring training invitations: Andres Blanco, Brian Bogusevic, Russ Canzler, Chase d’Arnaud, Jeff Francoeur, John Hester, Darin Mastroianni, and Xavier Paul.
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