We will start the week off with an Arizona Fall League Update…then feel free to discuss as you please.
A good week for Roman Quinn who went 8-25 with 5 runs scored, 3 RBI’s and 3SB’s. Two weeks into the AFL season, Quinn is hitting .250/.333.300 in 40 AB’s; with 3 RBI’s and 7 stolen bases. C Logan Moore has seen limited action as most expected as had hit .143 (2-14) with a lone RBI.
On the hill we have a real mixed bag. RP Nefi Ogando has been most impressive of the group. In his 5 appearances, Ogando is 0-0 with a 2.70 and 2 saves. He has thrown 6.2 innings and yielded 2 runs on five hits. He has walked 2 and struck out an impressive 6, continuing to throw in the mid 90’s. RP Colton Murray had a rough week this week, giving up 3 runs in just 1.2 innings spanning 3 games. Overall in the Fall League, Murray is now 0-2 with a 7.94ERA, over 5 games. SP Adam Morgan did not look good in his start this week, going 1.2 innings and giving up 5 runs (1 earned) on 5 hits. He threw 42 pitches, 26 for strikes. RYan O’Sullivan’s production in the Fall League can only be described as brutal at this stage. He had made 3 appearances and is 0-1 with a 19.06 ERA and has allowed 12 runs on 13 hits in his 5.2IP, striking out just one. P Ethan Stewart did not pitch at all last week after 2 appearances the first week of the season in which he gave up just a run in 3.1IP. He did however walk five and struck out 6.
Discuss.
Phuture Phillies 
I consider Quinn to be a legitimate prospect with a MLB skill in his speed. I think he can hit and play good D and I expect him to have a big year
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Four thumbs down? Does that mean that 4 people think Quinn’s not a legitimate prospects or they don’t like Broomall13 bringing it up or they don’t like Broomall13? I didn’t see anything that was mentioned that hadn’t been discussed before on this site.
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Dylan Cozens is playing in Australia this winter.
An approx. 45 game schedule thru EOM January.
This should prove to be beneficial for him
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I don’t know. I heard that the ball spins in the opposite direction below the equator. (tic)
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Of course it does and the sun rises in the west and sets in east. Wait… that’s not right.
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Quinn hitting below 200 left handed. I wonder when you pull the plug on his switch hitting
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I know not now but if he hits 200 left handed and 330 right handed next year…?
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Phillies rarely ever pull the plug.
However, Dugan shelved it a few years ago….but he was primarily a lefthanded hitter and gave up from the right-side of the plate.
IMO, forcing small guys to switch hit after they are drafted or signed from international, detracts from the player.
As JRoll once said, once you go that way, you spend half your time practicing on your weak side. So there are trade-offs..
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Terry Cahill, MLB.com with roman Quinn:
After playing the outfield for about four months, Quinn said he once again feels comfortable at the position. “I feel really good out there,” Quinn said. “I’m getting good jumps and making the right decisions and my arm feels good. It feels natural.”
………This fall, Quinn is making up for that lost development time. He said he hopes to work on all facets of his game during the AFL. “I want to get better out there in center field, obviously, and get more at-bats from the left side,” said Quinn, a switch-hitter.
……….even he feels he needs to work more on his lefthanded swing.
http://m.phillies.mlb.com/news/article/98530508/phillies-prospect-roman-quinn-shows-upside-in-arizona-fall-league-action
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Quinn hits for a hundred points better average from the right side and has a much better right side doubles rate, but strangely a higher HR rate from left side. Yes, SSS. He wasn’t hopeless from left side. Given how much time he missed and how little switch hitting he has done, he has shown enough to continue working on hitting from the left side.
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Yes, 6 of his 7 home runs for Clearwater came from the left side. He only hit 2 at home. The one I remember came left-handed at a time when I was wondering if he shouldn’t give up switch hitting. He crushed it. If you’re familiar with Bright House, it short-hopped the Oakley sign at the top of the right field berm. Immediately began wondering why I even bother having opinions.
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This is going off of the last comment on the last general discussion . . . Getting rid of Revere. Why? The only reason why he doesn’t play up right now is because of 2 things . . His defense and the line up around him. His D can be handled by a move to LF and well he needs hitters in the line up. What I mean is what’s wrong with a lead off guy who can hit above .300 and has speed for days? Nothing, unless there aren’t guys to move him over or drive him in below him. He should be a lock for 100 runs a year with him getting on, stealing 2B, getting moved over then driven in . . But he needs a capable 2 hitter who can move him over then 3 or 4 guy to drive him in. Also over the off season he will probably work on adding more power to his swing. Notice how I said “to his swing” not to his body. If anyone has seen him in BP they know he can hit it out of the park but that’s not the hitter he has been brought up as, his swing is one that will put the ball on the ground. He doesn’t create loft or backspin so you won’t see any power/HRs. If he can modify it slightly he can be a 6-9 HR guy, nothing crazy but certainly an upgrade and an upgrade that should draw him more walks.
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I think the only reason people talk about trading Revere is because he may not be more valuable than he currently is. I wouldn’t mind seeing him stick around and continue to work on his defense, arm strength, and showing more gap power. However, if he can be included with Hamels or in any other trade to up the return I would go for it. If he is traded we could go for a guy like Rasmus to play center. He’s not a lead off hitter like Revere, but he has a lot more pop (and of course strikeouts). Rasmus may be a good OF to grab even if we don’t trade Revere. One of the two could slide over to left and would be a defensive and offensive upgrade over Dom Brown. Jeff Todd wrote up a free agent profile on mlbtraderumors about Rasmus. He thinks Rasmus could take a 1 year deal, but may get up to a three year deal. I don’t think he would be a bad sign. If we could get him for 2yrs 25mil with an option for a third year that would give us a solid player to hold down the fort until we get some talent to emerge through the system or via trade.
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You’re using old stats. What you want in a leadoff hitter is a high on-base percentage. Revere doesn’t walk enough to have a satisfactory on-base percentage for leadoff. As you admit, he also has no power. All of that would be alright for a very good CF, which he isn’t. His is not the quality of bat we should want in LF. Best to find another old-style GM in love with BA to trade Revere to, while he’s still cheap. He’s a very marginal major league starter.
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Revere may not walk enough but he hits for a higher average to make up for it.
Power is overrated. Are the Royals a power team?
It is about constructing a lineup with speed, power, and clutch hitting ability.
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Yes, in the postseason the Royal have hit eight HRs in eight games so they have been a power team. They won one game using seven steals, six of which came against a replacement catcher. Since then they’ve stolen six bases and hit eight home runs.
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Still a lot of stolen bases and not a huge amount of power.
They were last in MLB with 95 HR’s and first in SB’s with 153. This is not a power team.
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But they were 9th in the AL in runs scored during the regular season. They weren’t winning because of their offense…It’s only now that they are hitting for more power in the postseason that their offense looks good.
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Chances are the power was due to the particular pitchers and not an indication that they are a power team overall.
Just like if the Giants beat them now it is not an indication that the Royals are a cinderella team. The Giants pitching staff has a favorable matchup versus the Royals lineup whereas the AL staff the Royals met had an unfavorable matchup.
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You do realize…once a non-power guy starts to modify his swing and try to put more loft into the ball, more then likely, his BA/OBP trend downward for the compensation….more fly balls.
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My reply is to Eric D.
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Hitting the ball out of the park in BP is no big deal. We drafted LGJ because he is a BP power prodigy. Problem is he can’t hit HR, or much else, in games.
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His power doesn’t play in games bc of his .224 career average. I think that even if Revere modifies his swing to create a little bit of power he would still have a contact rate MUCH MUCH higher then LGjr.
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I don’t think Revere is a bad player, even if he is a limited one in terms of his skill set. But I do think the Phillies should trade him, as he’s a piece that might bring them a decent return in terms of players who might be able to help the team in 2016 or 2017. If you could get a Denard Span-like return, some other team’s top pitching prospect, that would be great. But I agree that he shouldn’t be dumped, they should just seek to capitalize on his value when it’s at its peak.
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People are funny regarding Revere.
All of you started the season wanting to see him traded. The guy is in the chase for the batting title and you love him. Now it is the offseason is here you want to see him traded again.
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When I look at Revere, I can see the potential of a Matty Alou.
Looks like his clone in some respects at the plate.
Though, Alou used a longer and wider handled bat and choked up.
Revere could be adequate fill-in until Roman Quinn or Carlos Tocci are ready.
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Revere was 4th in stolen bases and 12th in BA. They may not be sexy but they are effective as a leadoff hitter, especially with stolen bases.
Revere’s problem was the dumpster fire in the four spot.
Analytic guys underrate stolen bases but as we have seen this postseason they are an important part of the game when used at the proper time.
Guys that can steal bases change how pitchers approach batters. Get Revere to second with no outs and power in the four spot and teams get worried.
In those situations pitchers approach Rollins and Utley much different.
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I am still trying to figure out how Rollins and Utley both scored more runs than Revere. It is a head scratcher.
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yes it is head scratcher.
I think it comes down to the old ‘BB’ stat…..Revere-13, Utley-53, Rollins-64
And Revere had more ABs then Rollins/Utley.
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Utley and Rollins get extra base hits, putting them in scoring position immediately. Revere requires 2 additional hits to score.
That’s the problem with a singles hitter, even one who does steal bases.
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I know a lot of people were moaning and groaning about how the great Andrew Friedman is going to Los Angeles, etc. I just want to point out this paragraph from MLB Trade Rumors today (summarizing a column):
“Andrew Friedman’s decision to leave the Rays is a reflection of the state of the franchise, posits Madden in the same piece. Per Madden, Friedman recognized that his stock would “never be higher” and the Rays were headed in the wrong direction. The club has become increasingly reliant on outside additions with just six home grown players on the final roster. One damning statistic – since selecting Tim Beckham first overall in 2008, Tampa Bay hasn’t developed a player from draft to majors. Madden speculates that Rays manager Joe Maddon could be the next name out the door. His contract concludes after the 2015 season.”
I just want to point this out because I think it fortifies the point I’ve been making this offseason: if you are picking toward the back end of the draft (as the Rays and Phillies have been since 2008) it is not a simple thing to find talent. I know we all want to think that our front office is uniquely dumb, and it is in fact true that this seems to be a perception around baseball. But maybe it’s not all our fault. Even well-run teams have this problem.
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I want to make my position clear on trading Hamels. Since I don’t like to repeat myself ad nauseam, some may not know my position.
1. Hamels is the team’s most valuable asset. The Phils should trade him plus cash if they can get a nice package of two or three top prospects. Otherwise, they should not trade him. There should be no in-between. It’s either a nice haul or no deal. My idea of a good three-prospect trade would be with the Pirates; Glasnow is a must; either Bell or Meadows is a must; and the third prospect should be no worse than Hanson or McGuire. My idea of a good two-prospect trade would be with the Dodgers: Seager and Urias. The Phils should have little flexibility in trade negotiations; either they get who they want or they walk away from the negotiating table.
2. Larry, the Keeper of the Tablets on Conventional Baseball Wisdom, would refer to the tablets, misinterpret them, and state unequivocally that, if that is the Phillies’ position, there will be no trade because other teams value their prospects highly and they are too smart to give up their prospects for four years of a healthy, 31-year-old star pitcher at the equivalent of $15 million per.
3. To Larry, I say, “Au contraire, Wizz One.” A pitcher of Hamels’ caliber does not become available every day; so, his availability will generate a lot of interest, particularly if he is available at $10 million below market for pitchers of similar quality (and for fewer years). The Phils, however, must guard Hamels like the precious gem that he is and not jump at the early half-assed offers that are made. They must be patient and wait for the right deal. So, Larry, it’s patience and timing. If you look hard enough, you will find these words and learn their meaning.
4. I think, for the most part, the men who run baseball teams are smart business people, and they know baseball. But they do enter into transactions that are as “bad” as or worse than the proposed Hamels trade with some frequency. In July, there was the Samardzija trade made with none other than Billy Beane. Nineteen months earlier, there was the Shields trade. I think it’s fair to say that outrageously long, expensive contracts qualify as “worse” than the proposed Hamels trade. Yet, while the conventional wisdom was that no team would succumb to Robbie Cano’s absurd demands, one team did. Although young, Prince Fielder looks like a heart attack waiting to happen. Surely, no one would sign him to an extra-long contract; but Dombrowski, one of the smarter GMs, did; and, to compound matters, two years later, Jon Daniels, the boy wonder down in Texas and another smart guy, trades for Fielder even though his performance was declining. The great Albert Pujols cinched HOF induction after his first ten years, but there have always been questions about his age. The conventional wisdom was that no one would give this 32-year-old a 10-year deal well in excess of $200 million, right? But Arte Moreno did, and who was right behind him with another outrageous deal – the Cards’ brilliant Mozeliak. My point is that, under the right circumstances, all of these guys – including the smartest ones like Beane, Dombrowski, Daniels and Mozeliak – will make a deal like the proposed Hamels trade. By being patient, when circumstances are right, the Phils could very well make a trade like the one I proposed. And, Larry, what you fail to understand is that it doesn’t take five or ten suitors, just one.
5. Baseball fans, the media and even you, Larry, don’t have a good understanding of the inner workings of baseball, including its economics. Otherwise, we would understand better the justification for transactions we question because of limited information.
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derek…my guess is LarryM’s batteries are recharged from his mountain hiking this weekend and I am sure he is ‘ready for bear’.
His response, I am sure, will be forthcoming and worth reading.
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Nah, aside from being busy as heck (mountain weekends are fun but responsibilities accumulate while away), I don’t really have the energy to go back and forth with Derek.
The short response is:
(1) Derek is conflating two different things – what is the minimum the Phillies should accept for Hamels, and what is a reasonable return for Hamels. The first question is one regarding which reasonable people may differ. But even if the people wanting a very high return are “correct” in some abstract sense, the two questions are entirely distinct. If Hamels should only be traded for the kind of absurd package that Derek and others want, then he shouldn’t be traded, because that package isn’t happening.
(2) EVERYTHING ELSE that Derek argues – here and elsewhere – is essentially magical thinking. Yeah, smart people do dumb things, but I still don’t expect Bill Gates to just hand me a million dollars. Sure, none of us have a perfect understanding of the inner workings of baseball, but we have a TON of circumstantial evidence (and some direct evidence) of those inner workings, and virtually all of it – maybe all of it – points strongly to a conclusion that the kind of return that Derek hopes for is absurdly unrealistic.
In fact, I would go so far as to say that the “Bill Gates gives LarryM a million dollars” scenario is much more likely that Derek’s trade scenarios. Seager and Arias is laughable – it was laughable two weeks ago, it is MUCH MORE laughable now. Two weeks ago, MAYBE, just maybe, the kind of patient, wait and see attitude proposed by Derek, MIGHT have gotten us a package headlined by ONE of those guys. If we were REALLY lucky.
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To be clear, EVEN NOW, I can imagine a scenario where the kind of bidding war some people are hoping for MIGHT get us one of those guys. MIGHT. But IMO not likely.
If you want a big return for Hamels, IMO the most favorable scenario would be the Cubs (1) not getting one of the major free agent starting pitchers, and (2) none the less deciding to try to contend in 2015. Even then, they likely would be dealing from their depth of prospects – not their very top guys (certainly not TWO of their top guys – and none of the guys who they could be counting on for 2015).
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Personally I do think Hamels could be traded to the Cubs. However, I think the potential for the deal increases if the Cubs get Lester, not if they don’t get him. I think Epstein realizes the Cubs can’t win it all by just adding Hamels but if he adds Lester and Hamels, the Cubs would have a great chance to win. Hamels and Byrd for Soler, Russell and a top A ball pitcher. The Cubs could win right away and the Phils would be rebuilding in full. Of course the Cubs will offer less initially and RAJ will have to wait them out. Ask Ed Wade how to do it….
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Your first sentence may be right.
The rest …
Soler – IF the Cubs decide to compete in 2015, Soler is going to be a significant part of that. Not going to be traded.
Russell – not out of the question, a better prospect than Soler but likely not in the Cub’s 2015 plans, but, if he IS included, the second piece likely would be someone towards the back of their top 10 IMO. Which in their system still means a pretty good player. Obvious fit issues as well given Crawford’s presence.
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I meant your second and third sentences.
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Urias.
That’s two top 15 in baseball prospects. Has there EVER been a trade of two top 15 in baseball prospects?
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Ouch!!! Is this a tirade against Larry or a post about trading Hamels. I agree with you that Hamels doesn’t need to be traded and shouldn’t unless the haul is incredible. I wouldn’t take less than 2 top prospects and a lottery ticket. He’ll look good at the top of the Phils rotation for another 4 years. If I thought he was an arm problem waiting to happen, I’d trade him for anything I could get. I don’t see him having arm problems, so a top shelf trade or nothing.
I think your #1 says it all. No need to pound at Larry. He has his opinion and you have yours.
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Why have a go at Larry? He articulates the Hamels situation better than anyone IMO
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Yeah, I think this is a bit gratuitous. I’m all in favor of ad hominem attacks, mind you, but I prefer them to be a bit more cogently argued than: 1) Larry argues that an expected return of X for Hamels is unrealistic; 2) I can cite several examples of smart people making decisions that, in retrospect, appear to be irrational; 3) therefore we should expect an irrationally high return for Hamels. Is it possible that some GM will become so eager to get his hands on Hamels that he will offer the trade equivalent of the Pujols or Cano contracts? Maybe. But is it likely? No.
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I don’t think that you will get as good of a haul as some people expect but a team with a deep farm system like the Cubs will pony up a couple of top prospects for a left-handed ace in his prime.
Whoever misses out on Lester will knock and you take those calls because there will be more than one.
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Sure, that’s possible. But the Hamels contract is a real potential hindrance. Yes, I get that it’s basically market rate for a shorter term than Lester will cost. But we are still talking 4 guaranteed years at $22.5 million per season, plus a very makeable 2019 option for $24 million that Hamels may demand be picked up as a condition of waiving his no-trade clause if you’re trying to deal him to one of those teams. (There seems to be some mystery about which teams were on the list last year, and oftentimes those clauses allow him to pick a new list of teams each year, so…). How many teams in baseball can afford to take on a $90-$115 million contract commitment? The list is not super-long. Lester will presumably knock one of them out of consideration, and then you maybe–maybe–have a situation where Amaro has two interested suitors? That’s not the kind of leverage that gets you a king’s ransom in return.
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Hamels contract is a hindrance to no one. He is paid in line with left handed aces across the league.
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It’s not a “hindrance” to most teams (it would be to some small market teams, who essentially can’t afford a market rate ace starting pitcher), but, in considering how teams value players for trade purposes, you DO need to take into account the fact that it is market rate, not below market rate. You’re trading for prospects who will have years of far below market rate salaries. That’s a factor, as even Derek acknowledges. And yes, there are factors going the other way, primarily risk factors (as Derek says, though he exaggerates those factors tremendously).
But let’s take a hypothetical here. A (say) top 15 prospect, if he reaches his ceiling, is going to be as valuable as Hamels over the next 4 years. Does that mean that a trade for one of those guys would be “even?” No. Derek would argue the factors in Hamels favor – mainly risk. And for most prospects, even top fifteen prospects, that factor would favor Hamels (though as a starting pitcher, the injury/decline risk on HIS part also needs to be considered), albeit to a lesser amount than many around her think (again, this isn’t a question of objective value, but of perceived value). However, favoring the prospect is the fact that, IF successful, he’s going to be a huge bargain – unlike Hamels – for years to come.
And that matters, even for big payroll teams, since payroll is not unlimited.
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I think you may be underestimating the degree to which that market rate contract might be a hindrance. Only a handful of teams have ever signed a pitcher to a multiyear deal with an AAV as high as Hamels’: the Dodgers (Kershaw, Greinke), the pre-Madoff Mets (Santana), the Yankees (Tanaka, Sabathia), the Tigers (Verlander), the Mariners (Hernandez), the Giants (Cain) and the Phillies themselves (Lee). Admittedly, I may be missing one or two, I am looking at an old list and updating from memory. But I think it suggests that there is a relatively small universe of teams that are willing to go over $20 million per year for multiple years with any pitcher. Also, a couple of these deals were made for guys in their mid-20s (Tanaka, Hernandez, Kershaw), and were therefore capturing more peak years than the rest of the Hamels contract will. Also, if you look at the number of pitchers on this list, it’s striking how many have since been sidelined by major arm injuries: Santana, Tanaka, Sabathia, Lee, Cain. Verlander has also looked like a shadow of himself lately. Really, Hamels is the outlier in the list in enjoying relatively decent health. That’s a point in his favor, but it’s also something other teams are likely to take into account when they think about acquiring his Age 30-35 seasons at the potential cost of more than $100 million in total.
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Epstein is finally under pressure to win. He basically announced that it is time for the Cubs to start winning, next season. There is pressure on him to deliver pitching from trades and or free agency and I think a little bit of both.
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I will say that I don’t think that Derek goes overboard with the personal stuff – I think he’s wrong, of course for plenty of reasons that I’ve articulated here & previously, but I don’t think he crosses the line between sharp (if mistaken) criticism and personal attacks.
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The second funniest thing is this plus cash kick.
If you think the Phillies need to kick in cash to trade Hamels you must be joking. The guy is one of the top 10 pitchers in the MLB and you want to dump him plus cash.
GM’s would laugh at that and agree knowing they stole something from you.
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The Jays gave us $6M as part of the Halladay trade. It’s a way to sweeten the prospect return
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Phils should have turned down the 6M and given less in prospects. The same thing with the Oswalt and Pence trades. The only assets they have are Hamels, a couple of prospects and a great deal of money.
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Some people just refuse to believe the facts when they are right before their eyes. You’ve mentioned three trades in which the Phillies took back $. Sounds like a treand. In the Halladay trade the Phillies also promptly dumped Lee and saved another $9 million. Why do you suppose this happens? I think the evidence says it is because Phillies ownership sets a firm budget, RAJ spend up to that budget, and then wants another guy. The only way to make the trade work is to take back $, otherwise RAJ can’t meet his budget and he is required to do that. Does anyone really think he wanted to get rid of Lee. He would have loved to have had both Lee and Halladay that season. He simply couldn’t afford to do it. The taking back $, which certainly does require sending more prospects, and the salary dump of Lee are the price of getting the guy you want most. You either do these things, or you don’t get the guy. RAJ couldn’t take Halladay without the $6 mill any more than he could keep Lee.
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But we are talking the Phillies here.
That has to be taken into consideration.
You can easily move Hamels for 1 top prospect and a couple of mid-tier guys.
The problem is that everyone is on one of two extremes. Deals do not happen on extremes, they happen in the middle.
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I don’t understand if you are exonerating RAJ by blaming ownership, or suggesting that the reason is a good one. My contention is that the Lee trade came from the top, that it was stupid, and that it happened because Giles/Monty got cold feet. A year later they paid much more for Lee than an extension would have cost. It was 9Million for 2010, not $25M. And was done in such a rush so people would be thrilled with Doc and give them a pass on a really dumb move .Either way, a truly incompetent approach to running a big market baseball team.
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I agree it was a dumb move, and yes it was forced by a decision from the top. Faced with a chance to make a deal to be almost the presumptive WS team from your league, or not, ownership has several choices. They can take the rigid ‘the budget is what the budget is, no special cases, we’ll sell out the stadium either way’ so don’t add the guy, or they can hold to the budget and let the GM mortgage more of the future to get the guy paying extra prospects or even borrowing $ from the future, or they can say they want the guy and the opportunity is so good that the GM can go over by $15 mill for one year. Our owners chose option two — probably the worst choice for the team long-term. This past year, they let RAJ borrow $ from 2015, by signing Burnett within the 2014 budget, using the budget trick of paying is budget out of the 2015 budget year. Sort of stupid thing to do for a team going nowhere in 2014.
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Imteresting you mentioned Allentown that ‘Phillies ownership sets a firm budget, and RAJ spends up to that…..”
Rumblings I have been hearing is that John Middleton has convinced most of the Betz and Buck heirs to sell to him, but one guy, Bill Giles may be opposed to that initiative and could try blocking any of that ownership/ financial changeover.
Not sure what his motive would be, unless the fact he gets pushed out of the club’s inner circle.
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His motive might be that 1)it reduces his input and 2)it reduces the value of his stake. Being one vote among equals is a lot more valuable than being the limited partner to majority owner. What’s the old line about the Yankees? “There is nothing more limited than being a limited partner to George Stenbrenner.” Also, it’s quite possible that Giles realizes his share would be worth a lot more if the team was sold on the open market right now. Unlike the others I don’t think he is hugely wealthy.
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Nobody has more than 50% and I believe that according to the partnership agreement nobody can acquire more than 50%.
That is coming from an article online so take it as you will.
Giles % is worth the same no matter what. Their stakes are percentages not shares.
If someone gets above 50% there is the possibility that he gets bought out but I doubt that would happen.
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Giles’ percentage is not worth the same regardless. The team would almost certainly fetch more on the open market than Middleton is paying for his shares. Open bidding = a higher price = more money for Giles’ percentage ownership.
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Here is what the Phillies need in terms of prospects.
2B, corner outfielders, catcher.
Any deal starts there. If you give the Phillies a top prospect that fills a developmental hole then other prospects could be of lesser value but the discussion starts with a top prospect that fills a hole.
The quality of that prospect determines the rest of the package.
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Yeah, I think that’s about right.
That wouldn’t be enough for many people around here.
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I would like to know what you consider to be a reasonable return for Hamels, if you were the one making the call. I would keep him if the return isn’t high enough, but that is just one person’s opinion. I am really interested to know what you would do.
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Okay … I think if you get, say, a top 15 or 25 prospect, along with a package of lesser prospect – say a good prospect who isn’t quite a top 100 prospect, and maybe a couple of lottery tickets – you do it without looking back.
Now, what if the headline guy is more in the 25 to 50 range. A much tougher call, but maybe you do it.
If the headline guy isn’t top 50, don’t do it.
But I’m not nearly as dogmatic about the above as I am about what the reasonable expectations of what the best possible return WOULD be.
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The Phillies don’t have a pressing need at 2B. OF is dire. There are catchers farther down the org who may pan out by the time the Phillies next make the playoffs. For now, the Phillies may want to wait and see what Joseph can do. There’s a fairly big hole at SP on the Phillies, with not a lot of help down on the farm. After OF and C, I’d say pitching is our biggest hole.
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A power hitting corner OF and SP are the biggest needs IMO
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Big need is really pitching. We have de-emphasized it in the draft before last year (part of why Nola is so important) and in Latin America (most high dollars going to hitters). Not that we are set at 2B and corner OF and C, but we have more depth at those positions than at pitching. Mostly in the lower minors but it is there.
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We have a lot of pitching but they are back of the rotation guys.
Pettibone, Biddle, Martin, Nola, and a couple of others can fill in the two to five spots.
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Martin can’t start because he can’t maintain velocity for more than a few innings. Maybe that changes, but I don’t think you can project it at this point.
Biddle has mid-rotation upside but is still an unknow. I love his curve, but he’s still all projection and guesswork right now. And it could take him several years to reach that potential even if he does get there.
Pettibone is coming off an injury and has some upside (4?), but still hasn’t pitched better than a 5 – he and Buchanan are the in-house candidates for #5 and I bet Jerome Williams sticks around to complete for that spot too.
Nola is a different story. I think he’s the real deal. I saw an article in Crashburn Alley that projected him as 2 with occasional ability to pitch like a 1. From watching him pitch, I generally agree with that assessment. People often forget just how valuable a real #2 starter is – you build championship teams with guys like that. Anyway, if he starts out pitching like a 3 or a 4 and builds up to something more in the following years, that would work just fine.
MAG has all the stuff you’d want in a mid-rotation starter, but hasn’t shown decent command yet or demonstrated ability to retain velocity for 80 pitches or so – we’ll see. Has serious ability as a potential lights out 7th or 8th inning guy if he can’t stick in the rotation.
Luis Garcia has only pitched as a reliever, but can rush the ball up there at 98 or 99 MPH and has a few pitches. Given the team’s glut of relievers, I’d love to see him audition as a starter because you’d hate to see an arm like that wasted or just discarded. Pitchers that throw really hard (high 90s) can sometimes bloom very late (although usually as relievers).
Maybe I’m missing somebody, but that’s the group of upper level starters (and a few others) who have a chance to make it with the big club this year.
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Yes, I forgot about Morgan. I have no idea if he’s going to come back or not. Early returns are not positive but, again, it’s early. You certainly can’t pencil him in anywhere, that’s for sure.
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Okay, I see some folks disagree. Any thoughts? Analysis? I’m all ears.
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Remember that Biddle’s age difference in AA is -2.6 so we can afford him some patience.
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Sadly, two with shoulder ailments.. Pettibone and Morgan… is not ideally what you would want to count upon….but hopefully Biddle’s psych is being strengthened.
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Pettibone yet to make it back from arm injury. Biddle having a ton of problems with control. Martin having almost as much trouble with control. Nola seems to be the real deal. Really, guys like Pettibone, Morgan, Watson don’t go on my pitching prospect list until they show they have returned from injury at about the level they pitched at prior to injury. Morgan now pitching again, but getting hit around.
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Really, you can count on Cesar Hernandez, or the guy we got from the Dodgers, or one of the LA SS we signed this past international season to fill 2B. You’re not going to find anyone who hits like Utley did and with good D, but even Hernandez is passable. Don’t see that in the pitching.
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Need to reconfigure the lineup. You need a power bat at Corner OF, but also a true lead off hitter, not Revere. You have Utley for a while and he should bat 2d. So, 2OFs, and a SP, I think should be the 1st 3 things of need.
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You have Utley for one, maybe two years.
Age will be a factor soon.
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Yes, Utley will not be a member of our next contending team. In talking about Phillies holes in the posts above, I really am not at all concerned about holes in our 2015 lineup. We were a cellar dweller this season and will be the same next year. Just a natural progression of the core aging, adding older players around the edges, and not enough young talent being injected into the MLB lineup. My philosophy on filling holes this winter is to spend what we can afford to fill one hole really well, in a way that will last for at least 3-4 seasons. There are a couple of starting pitchers who can be that guy. They won’t be cheap. Filling the other holes on a short-term basis with the elderly FA position players available this winter doesn’t appeal to me. Consider 2014 — we were last with Byrd and Burnett and Ruiz and neither of these guys is going to help us beyond, possibly 2015, possibly not even that far into the future. Far, far better to spend all that money (on the order of $75 million over three seasons) to actual fill a hole beyond 2015. Spending big money to try to be a ‘respectable cellar dweller’ with no future benefit strikes me as dumb. One good guy would also have helped us in 2014 and 2015. The cheap Hernandez helped us more than the expensive Burnett. A cellar dweller has no need to fill every hole with a vet. Use the opportunity to find an undiscovered gem, or at least an undiscovered not-all-that-bad.
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What pitchers would you target? Signing Lester or Scherzer for that kind of money when we are talking about trading seems silly, Shields, Peavy, De La Rosa, and probably Santana are getting a little old for a contract that long. That leaves Liriano, McCarthy, and Maeda as possible target, but your still paying them for at least two and likely three years where the Phillies still aren’t going to be competitive.
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I’d still go with these guys and Lester and McCarthy (assuming no QO) are my first choices. We’re not winning next season, whatever we do, but the Phillies always spend up to their budget, so why not spend on quality which will still be producing positive results when we are contending again. Yes, I might pay McCarthy for two seasons in which we don’t contend, but I find that one heck of a lot better than 2014’s $15 mill to Burnett in a season in which we also had no chance of winning. We also spent over $16 mill on Ruiz plus Byrd, neither of whom will ever help us to be a contender. So, you can get (assuming a few extra $ can entice them here) quality that will last for what we normally spend on patch and fill. Fill one hole well each season for the long haul and you are well ahead of the game going forward than spending the same $ on patching with 35-year olds. The advantage with these top pitchers is that they are will be only 30 or 31 next season. That’s a much more comfortable age for starting a multi-year deal than the age 35+ which we’ve chosen the past two seasons.
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I have to imagine Lester is getting at least 5/$125 and more likely something along the lines of 7/$168, especially to bring him to a franchise that will be near the cellar for at least a couple of years. That carries a lot more risk in terms of years and dollars committed than Hamels. And with the uncertainty of the prospects that Hamels brings back especially since everyone know the Phillies will be desperite to trade one of there three $22.5+ mIllion putchers, I’m not sure it is a good trade-off.
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Serious question for everyone here regarding a Hamels trade. Would you take a SP in the #15-25 prospect range, an outfielder in the #20-30 range, and a catcher in the #75-100 range? Don’t concern yourself if this is a likely scenario, but if that was offered would you take it?
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Phillies signing Lester!
Three lefty starters making a combined $75M plus annum….whoa!
Like I said before…if you are going to sign Lester, then trade Hamels for the best prospects available to start the revitalization of this once proud franchise.
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I am not afraid of having both Hamels and Lester, both of whom are very good and neither of whom is really old yet. Nor am I scared by Lester’s cost, as the Phillies have proven that they will happily spend that much on 35+ patch and fill guys. All other holes I fill on the cheap with younger AAAA guys or our own kids. That at least gives me Lester and Hamels to build upon, along with the pen, Asche, Franco, Nola, and Quinn. Possibly we see a Brown turn-around and possibly Joseph is healthy/good enough to help going forward. I trade some of the vets over the winter and others at the trade deadline. It was incredibly dumb of RAJ to add Burnett, Ruiz, and Byrd multi-year last winter — even dumber than the Youngs, Durbin, Adams the prior winter. All of that is lots of $ and nothing but patch and fill with nothing to build upon for the future. That has to end. You rebuild by adding individual pieces whom you can build upon multiple years out. With our money, that doesn’t have to be all kids, but it can’t be guys who will be pushing 40 when we next contend, which I’m shooting to do in 2017, with what I, rather than RAJ/Monty would define as ‘respectable non-contention’ in 2016.
‘ i
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Lester and Hamels without Lee and Burnett, if he doesn’t decline and retire, would be viable.
But two plus 35-year olds, and two in the early 30s, totaling almost $90M seems a bit too exorbitant and for the most part, a health-age risk with these pitchers.
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You can be fine with that all you want, but there is no way the Phillies are going to carry that kind of team salary. Especially on a team with an offense that would still mean they are unlikely to make the playoffs.
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That’s what I’d do if I’m filling 3 holes. The FA market is heavy with front end of the rotation guys this winter. We could use our $$$ to fill that hole. It makes it a bad year to move Hamels in the off-season.
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Quinn under 4.
“……….Quinn was clocked under 4.00 running from home to first; this speed was credited as the reason he has apparently been “stealing bases at will,” according to MLB.com analyst Bernie Pleskoff. Though he has yet to knock his first AFL home run, Quinn has also been cited for his power, despite his smaller size”
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/Catching_up_with_Phillies_prospects_at_the_Arizona_Fall_League.html#wzKwJjLLKpUvbzJM.99
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Does anyone know who’s faster Quinn or Hamilton (pre and post injury)? I’m sure they are both rated as 80 speed guys. I still can’t fathom 155SB in a season (132 games) that is absolutely INSANE. I’d like to see Quinn break 60 this year.
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Help! Help!Help!!
Though I appreciate all the talk about filling holes on the field, IMO that should be secondary to the #1 need: PITCHING! And…more pitching. Build the mound corps and the rest thereafter. good/great pitching covers over other weaknesses better than any other medicine!! See the Giants….
PITCHING…,.!! Pitching prospects, please.
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I don’t disagree with you that the fastest way to compete is to put together a good pitching staff.
But what’s interesting about the Giants is that this was not their formula for winning this year (at least during the regular season). The Giants had the 4th lowest pitching WAR in the majors (although I think we all acknowledge that they have an ace or near ace in Bumgarner, have an effective bullpen, and are better now than they were earlier in the year), the 6th highest offensive WAR and were in the middle of the pack for fielding.
The Giants have been very adept over the last few years at constantly bringing in new, younger, players to replenish the talent base of the team. If you had said three years ago that the Giants would sign Cain and Lincecum to really big contracts and neither would contribute anything of note to the team in 2014, you would think they would be dead in the water, but that didn’t happen because the team is deep and balanced.
The Giants have also been good at remaining below the luxury tax level and acquiring key players and absorbing salary late in the year for stretch run.
Of course, it helps to have superstars and, to my mind, when you get to the post season, Posey and Bumgarner are superstars.
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And do not forget Hunter.
‘All he’s done in two full seasons is play all 324 games and hit .280 with 47 homers, 64 doubles and 15 triples. He drove in three runs in the NLCS against the Cardinals to help the Giants to their third World Series in five years.’
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Romus Watching pence when he played here was brutal. I couldn’t believe how he could miss fly balls. I don’t know what change, but he wasn’t very good when he was here. His outfield play was brutal imo
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rocco….who’s OF play is more brutal then Pence’s ….Dom Brown, Ben Revere?
When it come to OF brutality….the Phillies have the market.
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Not sure why this comment got four down arrows. I guess Phillies fans really don’t like to hear people say nice things about the Giants. Which is understandable. I sometimes feel like the Giants for the past 5-6 years have been the evil twin of the Phillies. They do all the same things: sign core players to huge extensions, who then get hurt (Cain); sign mediocre free-agents to above market contracts based on peak contract year seasons, who then revert (Pagan, Scutaro); sign clearly declining players that used to be stars for them to generous contracts, seemingly based on sentimentality (Lincecum, resigned 2014, 2 years/$35m); trade top prospects for stretch-run veteran additions (Peavy for their #2 and #7 prospects, Beltran for Zach Wheeler); and of course, acquire Hunter Pence (and before that Aaron Roward for 5 years, $60m, which … what?). And yet somehow, it all always works out for them. For those of you who know a bit of vaudeville history, it’s like the old joke about the difference between the schlemiel and the schlamazzle: Sabean is the guy who spills the soup, and Amaro is the guy who gets the soup spilled on him. Or maybe Sabean is Milo Minderbender, buying soup for $10 a gallon in Malta and selling it for $8 a gallon in San Francisco and somehow making a profit. Or maybe he just went down to the crossroads in Mississippi and made a deal with Lucifer himself to allow him to make all the wrong moves, put together teams that can’t seem to ever break 90 wins, and yet rake in the World Series rings.
Anyhow, I guess what I’m saying is: Go Royals!
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Also, I should point out that, to the extent the Giants have a core group of quality players, it starts with Posey and Bumgarner, who were both Top 10 picks during the Barry Zito era when they were really, really bad for a coupe seasons. Like I’ve been saying all offseason: it’s all cyclical to some extent. And yes, in the Giants’ case, possibly also a little Satanic.
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Does anyone know if and where pitch f/x data is available for the AFL? I know reports are that Ogando has been displaying outstanding velocity and has the fastest recorded pitch in the AFL this year (98.4).
To me, the most important thing in Morgan’s rehab/recovery (other than becoming healthy) is his recovering velocity, which obviously could take a while. After he originally got hurt in early 2013, his velocity was down the rest of the year and he was a different pitcher when he couldn’t throw in the low 90s. I’m curious to see how that part of his recover is going.
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I definitely agree with the majority of people here regarding the prospects we need. OF and SP are the spots we need more depth. Yes we could use some more catching and 2B prospects, but they are not dire needs IMO. If we trade Hamels the center piece must be a SP or OF with the second preferably being the other, along with a third lesser prospect. If we got two starting pitching prospects to start for Hamels I wouldn’t mind as long as we could add an OF bat by trading Byrd. I would focus on starting pitching because the guys mentioned earlier are kind of risky. Most of the pitching prospects have had some sort of injury and are middle to back end guys any way. I would like to add another starter like Nola or better to pitch towards the front of the rotation. Hamels has to be traded while he is still relatively young and healthy. If we hold on to Hamels and he gets hurt and loses all trade value I may just pull all my hair out. I am not saying we should dump him, but we can negotiate a trade and get a good return for him. We more than likely will not be blown away by any means. However, If we can get some quality prospects in return we will at least be heading in the right direction. I hope Ruben sticks to his guns with Byrd. If I remember correctly Aaron Judge was a guy we wanted in return for Byrd. If a team isn’t willing to give up a prospect like Judge or maybe two slightly lesser type guys then they can miss out on the cheap production Byrd will provide. The mariners and yankees both had interest but neither pulled the trigger. The yankees probably miss the playoffs regardless, but maybe the mariners advance with the addition of Byrd. Byrd put up good numbers with a lousy lineup around him. If he was on a contending team his numbers may improve or at least be easier to maintain as he continues to age. His option for his contract isn’t great but 8mil for this year for a guy who will hit around .260-.270 with 20-25 home runs and plays passable defense is a pretty good deal. Even if his numbers decline, he should be able to be a DH/platoon guy during his option year for another 8mil. That may not be the ideal situation but if he helps you make a run or two I think he’d be worth. I would love to see some SP and OF be added to or farm system this off season and possibly in July for Byrd. Add a few prospects via trade and the 10th overall pick in next years draft and our farm should look legitimate.
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Whatever happened with Jacob Nix’s grievance against the Astros. I was kind of hoping they would lose one of their first round picks over it (unlikely, I know).
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Seems the Astros are still trying to sign him and work something out, and MLB may give them an extension to do that. looks like that grievance will go away.
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Just another case of the signing deadline not being the actual deadline for some teams.
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Phillies resign Jerome Williams to a 1-yr deal worth $2.5 mil plus incentives. Low risk signing. If you agree that 2016 will be another ugly season, this isn’t a bad signing.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20141022_Phillies_bringing_back_Jerome_Williams.html
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I’m a bit surprised there isn’t a 4 team no trade clause, and 3 vesting option years attached to this contract….
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The vesting isn’t mention, if Williams pitches 89 innings and wins 3 games , he is guaranteed 48 million over three years.
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I think this was a very smart sign. Hopefully he keeps pitching like he did after signing here. If so he will be a guy who would be ridiculously easy to trade at the deadline. If he goes back to being lousy he can still eat some innings for us. I kind of hope Burnett retires and we sign McCarthy and/or Liriano. If we trade Hamels and Lee is healthy I’d let Liriano be the ace just to put Lee back in the rotation and limit his innings a bit. McCarthy #2, Lee #3, Buchanan #4, Williams #5. The chances of Lee being healthy, Hamels being traded, Burnett retiring, and signing two good free agent pitchers will most likely not happen, but a guy can dream can’t he? I’d hope Hamels is traded as well as another starter who is having a good year. Signing McCarthy and/or Liriano and then trading them at the deadline would be a nice way to add to the farm. Williams may be the next Roberto Hernandez and bring us a surprisingly decent return. Our rotation is a mess, but at least we have plenty of options.
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Williams on a one year deal isn’t a bad move. With the health of Pettibone, Morgan, and not resigning Kendrick’s. he slides into that 4th or 5 th spot.
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I think he’ll revert to mean and there will be a lot of griping about how horrible a move it was and why didn’t they sign Lester or Liriano (if they don’t sign these guys). For $2.5M, this is a very good move. Maybe they can flip him at the trade deadline for something like the Roberto Hernandez trade? I think they’ll need starters just to get them through the season. Not a lot of risk for not a lot of reward.
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If you consider the way he pitch at the end of the season as being his upside, I’d call that a lot of reward. Not that I expect it to continue.
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He will compete with Dave Buchanan for the end-of-the-rotation spots.
Like you mentioned….not a lot of risk for not a lot of reward.
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Romus at this low one year deal. He could also if pettibone comes back , Williams can slide into the long man out of the bullpen. a innings eater
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rocco..now that’s what I am talking about!……now you are thinking.
Just like Ruben!
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Despite being a huge fan of Rollins, I do not see him as a likely or deserving Hall of famer.
Here are two questions for you guys:
(1) What do you think his chances of 3000 hits are?
(2) Would hitting that milestone be enough to make him a serious candidate?
Bill James “favorite toy” estimates an 18% chance for 3000 hits, which looks about right to me.
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Whether we agree that he should a HOFer or not (I love him, but he’s not qualified in my view and is not likely to become qualified), if he gets 3,000 hits, he’s almost certainly going to get in. I’m not sure there’s any precedent for a 3,000 club member being excluded from the HOF for performance reasons (Biggio will ultimately get in and Palmeiro’s not in due to PEDs and Rose is not in due to the gambling). There’s always a first time for everything, but with Rollins’ MVP, WS ring, power and and phenomenally consistent and competent fielding, I wouldn’t see him being the first exception.
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Probably correct.
One interesting thing about the fielding. Advanced metrics has demonstrated that range is generally a much more important factor than fielding percentage in fielding value. But Rollins on a career basis has just about average range (of course average range for a shortstop sustained over a long career is still quite impressive). His well above average defensive value as a shortstop is solely a result of his well above average fielding percentage.
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He needs to average about 140 hits a year over the next five years to make 3000 by the time he’s 40. That’s conceivable. As far as defense goes, not to go down the rabbit hole, but Jeter’s going to get in on the first ballot with 3000 hits despite his defense, and despite never having had an MVP season. Jeter benefits from his “intangibles,” media market, and the fact that he was one of the best players on one of the best teams of all time. But Rollins (while hardly Jeter’s peer offensively) isn’t so bad in that category either–he was a key player, you might say THE key player, on a team that won a World Series and had a long stretch of dominance.
I think if he makes it to 3000 he gets in, deservedly. Question is whether he can play 5 more years and and collect 700 more hits. Jimmy strikes me as the type of guy who might be able to do it. Very physically fit, and seemingly very conscious of his place in the record books and history. He probably knows being Mr. 3000 is his ticket to the Hall of Fame, and I would expect him to do everything he can to get there. And that includes playing shortstop for what figures to be some very bad Phillies teams before making way for Crawford in 2017, and demanding a trade someplace where he can play every day if Crawford surfaces before that.
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I agree that, although still a long shot, with each passing year of good health and sufficiently good performance to remain a starter, Rollins could join the 3,000-hit club. Although 3,000 hits is a standard for HOF entry first established by traditionalists a long time ago, I think it still works.
To reach 3,000 hits, Rollins needs to play about 700 more games as a starter. That means five more seasons, maybe a little more.
If Rollins is able to play through age 40 or 41 as a starter, he could reach a number of other impressive career milestones to ensure induction: 300 HRs for a SS, 600 doubles, 1,000 XBHs, and 600 SBs. Only four SSs have hit that many HRs; only 14 players at any position have hit that many doubles – all HOFers except Bonds, Rose and Biggio; and the three dozen players with 1,000 XBHs are HOFers, soon-to-be HOFers, steroids guys and Rose.
If Rollins plays only three more years as a starter, he should reach 2,700 hits, over 250 HRs, 550 doubles, well over 900 XBHs, and well over 500 SBs. Still nice numbers, but maybe not enough to turn the trick.
Obviously, if Rollins wants to make the HOF push, he won’t remain a career Phillie. If this be the case, he already should be looking for organizations that are weak at short (If he can wangle a two-year extension this off-season, maybe Rollins should agree to move to Yankee Stadium, where he can pad his HR stats.).
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I think he’ll sign a one-year contract with the Phillies for 2016, provided Crawford still looks like he needs another year of seasoning and then evaluate his options after that. The Phillies will be bad in 2016 and they’ll need someone to play SS. After that, so long as he stays healthy and continues to play above-average defense with a little pop, he’ll always be able to find a starting job if he’s willing to go year-to-year at a reasonable rate. My guess is that his last contract with the Phillies was about setting himself up financially, and the rest of his career will be about making milestones. He obviously cares a lot about them. I mean, he cited the fact that he wanted to become the Phillies all-time hits leader when he was asked about his no-trade. Who was even counting at that point? Jimmy was.
I think the 3000 hits club is still a pretty good measure of greatness. If you look at the list, there’s not a guy on it who doesn’t belong in the HOF–Biggio and Palmeiro might not get in because of steroids, although I think that’s really quite unfair in Biggio’s case, since he was never even implicated specifically by anyone as far as I know. But their stats certainly merit it. Sometimes the old guideposts work just fine. If you get 3000 hits, you are by definition a great player.
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Just to be clear (in case anyone thinks I’m advcoating Rollins’ admission to the HOF), I’m not saying he should get in (I think he falls short of meeting the qualifications, although he’s obviously a very fine player). I’m saying if he gets 3,000 hits I think it’s highly like the writers vote him in (or the Veterans’ Committee admits him), sooner or later.
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I am on the anti side for a few reasons.
1. His argument is more based on longevity more than playing well. Yes he had one MVP season but outside of that season was he consistently great or average over the course of his career?
2. Post-30 there are no awards. Take a look at Jeter who is a sure thing first ballot HOF SS. He had awards into his 30’s and good seasons up to a few years ago. Even if you take out the World Series rings there have been multiple awards and he played at a high level well into his 30’s.
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I tend to agree with your conclusion, but I would push back on a couple of points:
(1) He was well above average, even a star, for most of his career. Six seasons over 4.0 fWAR, 2 more seasons over 3.5 fWAR, and 4 more seasons over 2.0 fWAR. Only two seasons in his career were below average, and he was never under 1.5 fWAR in any season.
(2) Jeter isn’t really a fair comp, as he is well above the “average” HOF shortstop. I actually think that Rollins’ post 30 performance (especially if he hits the 3000 hit mark) is a point in his favor, even without awards.
But yeah, he does fall short on peak value, and, even if he gets to 3000 hits, his career value isn’t enough to make up for that that. IMO if he had a couple more seasons at the level of his MVP year we would be having a very different conversation.
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But, as I said in response to Catch, he think he does get in with 3000 hits in the unlikely event he reaches that total. “Should” is a different matter.
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Starks on JRoll’s HoF nomination:
http://espn.go.com/blog/jayson-stark/post/_/id/819/jimmy-rollins-unique-hall-of-fame-case
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Jimmy, more then anyone on this team over the last 10 years, even Chase Utley, has the best shot of HoF.
The tried and staid ole line… some of his statistical numbers are now better then some of the shortstops already in the HoF….but longevity may have helped that along.
Two more years at what he has done this past year should make him a lock.
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Plus he is ‘clean’….which could be a deciding factor in the next few voting cycles.
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There have been a number of studies showing Rollins is more than qualified for the HOF. Mostly, his number of extra base hits, steals, homers, that is, the combination of them makes him among the top to ever play his position. I don’t recall the nos. and am not going to look for them but – and I know this means nothing – he right now has had a better career than all but a very very few HOF shortstops. It is a position that is very under represented in the HOF. While his counting stats aren’t striking the combination of his quasi power bat and great glove is very unusual.
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I want to add a lack of All-Star games as well.
If he had better seasons from 30-34 then we would be having a different discussion.
Jimmy will get his number retired and that is fair for his career.
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I may have more to say about this later (or not – busy at work and this evening), but I would say that his performance ages 30 to 34 probably stacks up pretty well with HOF shortstops. It’s his relatively low peak (low for a HOFer, that is, and of course peak is generally 25-30, roughly) that’s problematic for him.
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I mean, I guess since it is a hall of “fame” the lack of All Star games is pertinent, but do we really think that’s a fair measure of his career? Here are the guys elected as starters during his career besides him: Tulowitzki, Furcal (!), Hanley Ramirez, Reyes, Renteria (!), Eckstein (!!!!!), Aurillia. With the exception of Tulo and maybe Reyes (who only made it once himself), there’s not a guy on the list who you would have rather had playing shortstop for the Phillies. Jimmy didn’t even win the fan vote the year after he won the MVP–the year the Phillies won the World Series.
I guess what I’m saying is, any competition that deems David Eckstein the best SS in the National League is not a fair measure of a player’s value.
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If you are looking at WAR guys like Ozzie Smith and Barry Larkin had 5+ WAR seasons up until 35 and 37. Even Jeter had a 5+ WAR at 35.
Rollins peak was never as high as other SS’s which does hurt him.
I think the All Star voting does come into play because it is an indication of how fans felt about him.
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Fortunately for Jimmy….when he is eligible, my guess, in less then 10 years….most of the voting baseball writers will not be fully cognizant of WAR and how it may relate to metric efficiency and effectiveness.
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It’s funny what sets off the filters. I just wrote something that is now “awaiting moderation” and I have no idea why. Was it mentioned Joe Glasscock?
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Yes, it must have been that, now this comment is also awaiting moderation. Hey Gregg! He played from 1879-1895. Also, I was wrong, his first name was Jack, which makes it even dirtier.
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Ozzie Smith had a funny career–he was a defensive wizard who only developed into a decent hitter (and thus stacked up big WAR numbers) after he turned 30. I wonder how accurate these defensive stats are for guys in earlier eras, but I think we can all agree as people who saw him that there was no comparison between his glove and Rollins’. Lakin is quite simply one of the greatest SS of all time, somewhere in the second rank of the all-time greats behind Wagner and Ripken. Here are the JAWS stats. I have no idea how they are calculated, they could be garbage, but it’s an interesting list.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_SS.shtml
Rollins already grades out as superior to a number of HOF shortstops, and comparable to such greats a Joe Tinker. (Who got in because he was in a terrible poem! That’s baseball for you.) If he plays 5 more years and averages 4 WAR, as he did this year–which seems conceivable–he could put himself right up there with Pee Wee Reese and the immortally named Joe Glasscock. So it’s doable. Comparing him to Smith and Larkin isn’t quite fair, he’s definitely not on their level but he’s not so far from that third rank of solid Hall of Famers.
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I was interested in looking up hof shortstops. I am really amazed how well jimmy stacked up with the guys in the hof. My biggest question is this, how is phil ruzzutti is in the hof . Jimmy only negative might be obp. and that is nik picking. And as many know I am not a big rollins fan because of his lack of running out grounders and not moving runners with no outs,but his overall numbers are right there.
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I try not to compare people from different eras. That is why I use guys like Smith, Larkin, and Jeter. Notable comps in today’s era.
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Let me preface this by saying Jimmy Rollins has been a very good ML baseball player. With that being said I honestly don’t see how someone can say that Rollins is a HOFer. His numbers will def be comparable to a lot of HOFers but that’s due to longevity, he’s played for 15 years, averaging 142 games played a year (taking out his first season of only 14 games. That number jumps to 152 if you take out his one injury filled year) a lot of time to rack up stats with decent seasons.
An average season (a full 162 game average) for Rollins looks like this
.267/.327/.424 103R 179H 37Doubles 17HR 69RBI 35SB
That’s def a solid player but not one of the greatest of all time.
In his whole career he’s only led the NL (taking out PA and AB) in 6 statical categories. 4x he’s led the NL I’m 3B, once in SB and one in runs. He has NEVER been the best at his position in a single year (even in his MVP year)
In his best year he’s ever had (2007), he wasn’t even the best SS in his division let alone League.
Player A – .332/.386/.562/.948 125R 212H 48Doubles 29HR 81RBI 51SB Defensive WAR 1.2
Player B – .296/.344/.531/.875 139R 212H 38Doubles 30HR 94RBI 41SB Defensive WAR -2.1
Player C – .280/.354/.421/.775 119R 191H 36Doubles 12HR 57RBI 78SB Defensive WAR 1.8
Player D – .291/.359/.479/.838 104R 177H 33Doubles 24HR 99RBI 7SB Defensive WAR 3.8
Player E – .322/.388/.452/.840 102R 206H 39Doubles 12HR 72RBI 15SB Defensive WAR -1.5
You can make an easy argument that player B had the worst year of the 5 which was Rollins against 4 other SS in 2007.
Hell he’s hit under .255 6x in 13 full seasons. He’s hit under .255 in almost 50% of his seasons played. He has been a lead off hitter most of his career and a HORRIBLE one at that.
I know the above doesn’t make or break HOF decision. All I’m really trying to say is that a HOFer should be one of the BEST to EVER play the game. Jimmy Rollins was never the best short stop in any single year of his career . . How can he be one of the best EVER if he wasn’t the best in any time he played?
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I am not going to make the case for him being HOF worthy, but there’s a LOT wrong with this comment. No time to detail everything (for which I assume many of you will be grateful), but he was the best shortstop in baseball in 2007. fWAR has him best by a considerable margin, 6.4 WAR with Ramirez second at 5.3 WAR, i.e., not particularly close.
He’s a little lower by rWAR, but still @ 6.1. He’s second among shortstops per rWAR, but baseball reference’s very high defensive WAR for him for the season is suspect to say the least. Rollins was the best SS in 2007 without much room for argument.
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err, that is, Tulo, who is first per rWAR, is credited with an unreasonably high defensive WAR.
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I’m not big on WAR but throw it in there for the people who use it. You mention that some of the WAR numbers were suspect . . Why bc It doesn’t favor your opinion?
I’m sorry but someone who’s hitting 40 points higher, OBP 40 points higher, walking a lot more, stealing more is and then putting up just about the same power numbers (HR) wasn’t the better player.
Explain to me how accurate WAR really is? You can’t tell what another player would do who doesn’t exist. If Rollins moved to a different team he might be a better player bc if the line up around him, players around him in the field, facing different pitchers, facing different pitchers bc the players hitting around him . . You can’t tell how many wins a play would add over another one. You just can’t.
Btw just bc he won the MVP doesn’t mean he was the best SS . . Just means that he was the most valuable player to his team. More valuable then other players to their team. That doesn’t mean he’s the best.
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No time for a complete response. Short answer …
No, WAR is not infallible. But ANY fundamental analysis of the 2007 season is going to lead to the conclusion that Rollins was the best, UNLESS:
(1) You buy that Tulo was as much of a defensive monster in 2007 as ONE the metrics indicate (other metrics show him good but not otherworldly), and/or
(2) You don’t buy the metrics that say that Ramirez was a sub-par defensive shortstop.
Why should we buy the metrics on Ramirez and not buy the metrics on Tulo? Basically because the metrics on Ramirez were in line with both his metrics in other seasons and with the “traditional” evaluation of his defense, whereas Tulo’s metrics were not. Throw in the fact that Tulo’s metrics (again, ONE of the metrics) were EXTREMELY high, whereas Ramirez, while bad, not as extreme in the other direction, and the fact that defensive metrics are the least reliable component of WAR.
There is no case for any other shortstop being the best that season, and the cases for Ramirez and Tulo are weak.
Base running – Rollins had the most base running value of any shortstop in 2007, and the shortstops who were close were nowhere near his combined offensive and defensive value.
Hitting – Hitting metrics are very reliable, and show that only Rameriz was a better hitting SS that season. Three others (Jeter, Renteria, Guillen) had roughly the same hitting value, but each of those (like Ramirez) was sub-par or mediocre defensively, and none of them contributed much value on the bases.
Defense – Rollins was “only” 10 runs above average defensively, but that’s still one of the better totals among shortstops. It’s consistent with both his career metrics and with “traditional” evaluation. (GG winner). The better defenders had nowhere near his combined hitting and base running value.
Bottom line – you have a SS who was the second best hitting shortstop, best base runner, 10 runs above average defensively and a GG winner. Yes, he was the best SS that season. Maybe not deserving of the MVP, but a heck of a year.
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if rollins wouldnt have swung at so many high fastballs batting lefthanded, he would have a lifetime ba of probably 10 to 20 points higher. that would put his numbers closer to hof numbers. but, he is too stubborn to listen to smart hitting coaches he has had throughout his career.his plate discipline has always been bad
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And if Ryan Howard would have worked on going the other way (on the ground) and put it to work in games, he’d be more then a .240 hitter
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Hey, is there anyone moderating the discussion on this site anymore? I have two comments from yesterday that have been yet to be “approved by the moderator” regarding Rolllins’ HOF case. My sin was apparently mentioning in the discussion a 19th Century baseball player who Baseball Reference lists as having comparable statistical numbers, his name was Jack Glassc…k. He was a real person, I promise!
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/glassja01.shtml?redir
Anyway, Gregg or whoever, can you click whatever needs to be clicked? I’m sure that everyone here is just dying to hear more of my opinions about Jimmy Rollins.
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Andrew, yes your comments are sitting in “pending”. I think your guess as to why they were filtered out is correct. I tried to “allow” them, but since I was not the author of the article, I don’t have necessary permissions. Sorry.
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Thanks for trying!
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Have to love his nickname…Pebbly Jack…but check out his K rate…less then 3% over 7K PAs!
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Pat Gillick acknowledges that the Phils aren’t going to compete for a few years and that they are in a rebuilding mode. We all knew that, but it’s refreshing and relieving that the front office understands this and can take a step back to take several steps forward.
http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/gillick-phillies-not-contender-2015-or-2016
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Great read and an honest opinion from someone in authority, especially when Gillick says….”I think we’re more toward rebuilding than reloading,”
Can not imagine Ruben ever saying that.
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That’s great that Gillick says what is obvious, but if that is the case then why not move on from Amaro right now identify the next GM because it seems obvious Amaro won’t be the guy after this year and let that person take charge of the rebuilding process.
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Actually when you think about it….all three people involved may be ‘short-timers’.
Monty because of his health issues, Gillick at 78 and only interim and of course Ruben due to his lack of recent production.
I am of the opinion Ruben will eventually be bumped upstairs to replace Monty and a new GM is brought in.
About the only person with long-term stability in ownership/management is John Middleton, unless you count Bill Giles in the mix still.
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I hope that Amaro is not bumped upstairs. It’s bad enough he’s making the decisions now on players and contracts – if he’s making the decisions on who is the GM, boy that would really not be a good thing.
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Gillick on Ryan Howard’s future with the Phillies. Brutally honest.
‘……all depends on what Ruben gets….everybody is in play right now’
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We all know this should have started 2 years ago, but at least Gillick is being honest. And, everyone should be in play. The question is, who is evaluating anyone that we are going to get? No one in this organization has a track record of finding young talent, other than relief pitching, either through trade or otherwise. Arbuckle found Victorino. Spending $100M on Tomas or trading Hamels for whatever you can get requires an evaluation of talent that has not been evident on the Phils.
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Phillies sign Sizemore to a 1-yr $2mil deal. Another good low risk signing – again, if you agree that 2015 will be another 85+ loss season. Thumbs up
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Anyone know if Roman Quinn was hurt the other day? He only had 1 at bat on Wed and didn’t play yesterday.
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