General Discussion – Week of 9-15-14 – Saint Diego Edition

Weekly Discussion

Seven on the west coast this week. Four in San Diego then the weekend in Oakland.

The Phillies sit in 21st place overall in the MLB, which does afford them the last of eleven protected picks (with that Houston 2014 re-pick at #2). The club is even in the loss column and just a game up in the win column on San Diego right now, so honestly, I would be fine with a Padres sweep for the betterment of the club in the long term. Perfectly reasonable that the Phils could finish in the bottom eight, (pick #9), below San Diego and the White Sox, and less reasonable but still plausible that they could finish as low as the bottom five, (pick #6), if the Cubs, Astros, and Red Sox all get a little bit hot and the Phillies do not. Seems to me that Colorado, Texas, Arizona and Minnesota are locked in ahead of the Phils, as they’re currently lined up to fill out the top five picks around Houston at #2.

As for the other direction, if the Phils get a little hot, they could potentially pass any of Cincinnati, the Mets, Marlins and Rays. Passing all four would push them down to the 16th pick, but passing any of those four would put them in a position where a QO free agent signing would lose them that pick. I’ll say that IMO, there’s no reason they ought to be signing any QO free agents this year based on my quick look at free agent power rankings. However, if the right name fell to them at the right price, it would be lousy to have to weigh it against losing a pick that could theoretically help them in the next couple years, assuming they plan to repeat their 2014 draft strategy by picking another advanced college player.

Discuss.

114 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 9-15-14 – Saint Diego Edition”

  1. There should be no possible way that they forfeit their 1st rd pick, especially when its a top 20 pick, to sign a free agent who will not put them into the world series. We need another Nola or Crawford to add to the future major league mix.

    Again, I had to read an Inquirrer story on Sunday about moving Chase to 1B (as if they can trade Howard – can they?). I love Chase as much as the next guy but I wish everyone, writers included, would understand that his bat does not play well as a 1B, he only brings value as a 2B. Yes he ran out of gas this year and yes he played too much in the first half of the season for his body to handle it. Right now he’s an old 34 with bad knees playing 2B but I think he’s got another decent year in him, at $15M, if his games are limited and 2B should be the only place he plays. When he can’t play there anymore its time to retire. That’s probably good news for Cesar Hernandez because the age of Rollins and Utley might force the team to carry two backup infielders (Galvis will already be there). Rollins on the other hand really didn’t suffer much drop off this year due to age and was it he was all year. He’s a low obp guy who swings too hard and pops up too much but also generates lots of extra bases and although his range his way less than most other SS, his hands are the best and his arm is very true. I don’t see Galvis as a major league starter so I don’t see a reason for JRoll to leave before JP is ready.

    Like

    1. Playing Chase at first, would be part of the transition.
      More or less a one, maybe two year interim stop-gap
      But what it also means, that Ryan Howard has been moved to another team, Isn’t that what most all the people want!
      With Chase at first, Ruf then becomes the guy against the Gonzalez’, Lirianos, Kershaws, Neese’ or Minors’ of the world.

      Like

      1. I second this. I also
        Think they know Franco is the 3rd baseman of the future and they want him playing there. Asche could be given a look at 2nd as well. Yes I know they tried him already there but may give it another look. Utley is clearly the 1 guy they don’t wanna trade and want him to retire a Phillie. Let him play 1st for a year or 2 and go from there.

        Like

      2. I agree moving Chase to first with perhaps a handful of starts at 2B. A move to a less physically stressful position, combined with being limited to 130 games will make him more productive next year.

        Like

    2. Remember when Pete Rose played 1B for the Phillies? He certainly didn’t have the bat for 1B. He was there for veteran leadership, whatever that is.

      Like

      1. I said this a week or 2 ago that moving Chase to 1B was a viable option then articles come out talking about this. Man I’m kinda worried, I’m not starting to think like the front office an I? I hope not haha. I just think that it will take pressure off his health which could also help his offense. Also it could allow Asche to try 2B with Utley showing him the ropes. It could also mean that they are looking at the Japanese SS (who I think could be out on 2B) which could give the Phillies 50HRs from the right side of the inf, not bad at all. Again like someone said it also means Howard isn’t on the team anymore.

        Like

      2. Yeah but they had the luxury of having Rose at 1b b/c some dude Schmitt, Schick, something was at 3b. That 80 team’s offense was much better than what we can muster.

        Like

      3. Pete Rose hit 330 with a 400 obp and 40 doubles his 1st year with the Phillies. That plays just fine as a 1B thank you. Chase going to do that?

        Like

  2. I think we all agree that it makes no sense to win games from here on out. As frustrating as the loss was on Sunday to the Marlins…..It is really a blessing in disguise. The only was this team will improve to an upper level team is through the draft and player development. With that said, every game from here on out is a must LOSE game. Here’s to tonights hopeful EAGLES win and Phillies loss!!!!

    Like

  3. Lose Out! Also, i want to see Asche or Franco eventually at first…2016 is the year for hope! Crawford, Nola, Dugan, Quinn, etc

    Like

    2. It will be interesting because, in a way, it will be a year for hope and in another way, if they don’t sign some big names, it could also be the worst year in some time, just like 1997 was a bad year even though it began the Rolen, Abreu and Lieberthal era.

      It’s pretty amazing just how much Amaro screwed this thing up. I’m curious to see what this off season brings. As bad as he has been, he actually did okay this past year, it was just far too little, far too late; picking up Sizemore has been good, but an outfield that includes Sizemore and Byrd just doesn’t advance the ball.

      Like

      1. I am really hoping one of the acquisitions Ruben makes this off-season is the signing of the Cuban OF, Yas Tomas.

        Like

            1. I think 6 years $80 mil is more realistic, maybe 7 years $90 mil, which would be just under 13 mil a year. I have a hard time seeing him get $100+ mil unless he just looks ridiculously good in his workouts. If he does get around $100 mil I wouldn’t be surprised if it was us who signs him. We have a lot of money coming off the books soon and Comcast money on the way. Plus Ruben is desperate for young power hitter who plays OF. If they can sign Tomas I feel trading Hamels is the best way to go. It would give us some more financial flexibility as well as bring in some players to build around. Franco, Nola, Giles, Crawford, Tomas, maybe a prospect like Owens from Boston could be added to the list. We may be able to have one MAYBE two more playoff runs with Hamels, but look what happened to Lee. I think we need to sell Hamels this off season while he still has good value and get guys who can help us make more than one or two play off runs. We need a core of players who can make 5+ years of playoff pushes like Hamels and the other core guys did back in 07.

              Like

            2. What kinda numbers do you expect for Tomas to put up? Again I’ve said this before but he isn’t going to put up huge numbers, he’s won’t put up what Byrd has this year (not saying I want Byrd past next year but just comparing). His numbers were far lower then the other big names (Cespedes and Abreu) in their same age seasons. IMO he’s going to be a .240/.320/.420 20HR guy nothing special.

              Like

            3. Well Eric I am not a professional scout nor do I evaluate mlb talent for a living. I am going to take a shot in the dark and say you are not either. With that said I don’t think either of us can quite predict what can of numbers Tomas can put up with any degree of accuracy. I have a hard time seeing him top out at 20 home runs in a season with 70 power (according to some scouts around the game). I can see how his average may not be all that high, but I think he is capable of .255 or so. I think he is capable of being a productive player in the big leagues. He is only 23 so there is time for him to adjust and continue to improve. With the current state of the OF in the majors and thin OF prospect list in the minors I think he is worth a shot. He may not hit for as high an average as Revere, Quinn, or Dugan, but his power is certainly better than any OF prospect we have.

              Like

            4. Ematt – Of course I am not an evaluator . . I was putting together all if what I’ve read and also comparing him to other players who have come to the states. In the same age seasons 21-23

              Here’s numbers comparing Tomas, Abreu, Cespedes thru their age 21-23 seasons

              Tomas- 229G Avg.283 2B 48 31HR 71BB 177K

              Abreu- 242G Avg.392 2B 64 86HR 159BB
              161K

              Cespedes- 251G Avg.309 2B 54 72HR 117BB 135K

              He hit far less HRs with a lower average and FAR more K’s then all of them against lesser competition then he’ll see here. Also you realize someone could have 80 grade power and top out at 10 HRs . . . If they can’t hit enough to let the power show itself in games then it doesn’t matter if it’s 70 grade or 40 grade (see one of our infamous 1st round pucks a few years back). He’s going to cost a lot bc of his age and I don’t know that that’s smart spending if you aren’t getting a big return. If he cost under 10m per year then I’m ok with it but 10plus m for someone who won’t crack Byrds numbers isn’t worth it esp when there aren’t other players around him to take some pressure off. Throw him in the OF from 2008-2011 with Victorino/Werth then it’s a nice piece, not with Brown/Revere or Asche/Revere.

              Like

            6. Eric I have seen those numbers posted on here before and while I see how that is a very legitimate argument, it is not an exact science. There isn’t an equation that translates Cuban numbers to the big leagues. I am not claiming that Tomas is going to be this superstar who takes the league by storm. I do however think he could be a nice 3,5, or 6 hole hitter (Probably 5 or 6 if the average is around .250). If we gave him a 6-7 year deal and got an average to slightly above average player I would be ok with that. I think he will be a quality player and is definitely a better option than Brown, Asche, or Revere for LF. He is only 23 so his contract would end by the time he was 30 so we wouldn’t be stuck with a another old player with nothing left in the tank. He could be a nice piece to a lineup with Franco, Crawford, and maybe another guy or two who is in the system (Quinn,Dugan etc) We are not going to get an everyday starter for LF cheaply, whether we get one through free agency or trade. Tomas may surprise people and hit better than one might project. In that case he may end up a steal at 11-13 mil a year. Personally I think 7yr $84mil or so is about what I’d pay. 12mil for a guy who is young and can fill a huge hole on our team is not bad. In 2-3 years that will be a very cheap price for an outfielder. Kendrick is probably looking at 8-10 mil per season on a 2 or 3 year deal because he has been durable and slightly effective at times. I just think you have to sign Tomas. We don’t have many alternatives. He could just be an average type player, but if he may be a very good bat who we look back and are glad Ruben pulled the trigger. I think we have to take the chance.

              Like

  4. The problem with playing the Friars, at this time of year, in this particular situation, is they also want to lose. Winning games is not in the best interest of either of the two teams. But there are players who are playing for next year. Franco is one. He wants to win a roster spot in September. Hopefully, there will be Padres who are doing the same thing.

    Like

  5. I agree that the “move Utley to first” isn’t anyone’s optimal scenario, but it is easier to think about if Howard is traded/let go and we get to see some of the younger guys get a shot. The other option is the “trade anyone and everyone” scenario (anyone and everyone being Utley, Rollins, Howard, Byrd) and just go with all young kids. The reality is that’s not realistic and hey, I’m as sentimental as the next guy and am more than happy to have Utley retire a Philly logging some time at first.

    Like

  6. I don’t see the team really going after any top QO free agents. They need rotation help but I think they will pencil in Hamels, Lee, and Buchanan with possibly Burnett returning if he doesn’t retire. That leaves one spot for a lower level signing to battle with Williams and Pettibone and others.

    Yas Tomas would be huge for the Phils, then they could put Byrd on market with Nelson Cruz the only free agent power hitting OF available on market. Byrd will cost someone a top prospect or two.

    So even if they came in better than the bottom 10 teams, I don’t think they will be entertaining any top signings that will forfeit the 1st round pick.

    Like

    1. A healthy AJ Burnett, Cliff Lee and a whole year of a healthy Hamels would have made this season more bearable as they could have been in the Wild Card race for awhile. However; a bottom 10 pick will help this franchise rebound quicker with Crawford, Nola, Quinn and others advancing to Reading or Allentown next year.

      Like

  8. Signing Tomas represents one of the biggest gambles in pro sport contracts that I can remember. Because of the rules, someone is going to give him close to $100 mil. But if you look at his stats in Cuba, he has a lot of red flags. He did hit 6-16 w 2 homers in the WBC, but also struck out 4 times and no walks. The SSS against elite competition will convince someone to take the risk. 23 year olds with 70 power just don’t come in te FA market. But he only hit 6 homers last year in Cuba (90 games) and only 10 last year. That is a big flag. I just wonder if we are hoping he is more than he actually is. And let’s be honest, if Phils sign him, we will assume an overpay. But if another “smart” team signs him for same deal, we would give them a pass. I honestly don’t know what I would do on him. But if I had to decide, I would probably roll the dice, understanding if he is a bust, I will never GM again

    Like

    1. The information presented in this thread has been fascinating. I haven’t examined the issue separately, but unless you think there’s a very good chance (40%?) that this guy becomes an elite player and a fairly low chance (20% or less) that he’s going to be a complete bust (a la Dom Brown or BJ Upton), I don’t give him a 6 year, $100 million contract. You might be better off spreading that money around or just waiting until the right opportunity presents itself. It’s a tough call, but I’m not putting that much money into a completely untested player unless the upside is both huge and there’s a decent chance of reaching that upside. There was a time to strike and get International FA bargains and, as usual, the Phillies were too conservative at the wrong time and now, thinking they are about to miss the boat which, in fact, has already left port, they might be overly aggressive at the wrong time.

      As I said before, up until now, not only didn’t the Phillies think out of the box, they essentially have been the box; the quintessential conservative, old-school thinkers. No big international signings. Routinely trading most of their valuable farm system chips for “proven” experienced players with short shelf lives. Not using advanced metrics to their advantage. Not signing young players to long term deals before they get too expensive. And if you think that way, you better do the traditional, old-school things perfectly and have some good luck. Well they haven’t executed perfectly and they’ve had some bad luck (let’s face it, the Roy Hallday and Roy Oswalt situations involved some bad luck). So here we are, with a bad and unwatchable team.

      Like

      1. Phillies look like their $100K investment with Maikel Franco 5 years ago will pay off.
        I guess there is some luck there.

        Like

    2. I would also roll the dice with him.
      Like I mentioned earlier, at 24-age season next year, he will probably want a 5/6 year length contract, and I assume at least $11M to $13M per year.
      So it is a risky venture for sure.
      Especially when you compare his numbers to Cespedes and Abreu at similar junctions of their careers in the Cuban professional sports league.
      Red Sox just took a gamble on Castillo, and it has paid dividends for LAD, Oakland, and the White Sox, and soon to be the Cubs with Soler.
      I tend to think the typical Cuban player is highly skilled and talented.
      I would make a substantial offer to him.
      .

      Like

  9. Free agents and overpays.

    Here’s my view of things. With rare exceptions, every free agent acquisition is, by definition at the moment it is signed, an overpay. The team that acquires the player has paid more than every other team in baseball is willing to pay for the duration of the signed contract. Free agent contracts cease to become overpays if the player outperforms the contract and/or the market changes, but when it’s signed, the contract is almost always an overpay.

    Like

    1. This is true, although the Phillies try to disguise the reality by talking about how much the FA loved Philadelphia and the Phillies and so we got a great deal on him, because this is the team he wanted to play for.

      Like

      1. The discount thing is true in some scenarios. We may have offered a competitive contract, but Lee did leave money on the table to play with the Phillies rather than the Yankees, for example.

        An even better example is Utley; he not only has given the Phillies a discount relative to his market value for his entire playing career but has never even tried to test the market. You don’t do that if you don’t love your situation.

        Which is not to say every player we sign is a deal because he loves Philly (Papelbon being the biggest example of the inverse). But you have to look at the roster and see at least a handful of players who WANTED to be here. Utley, Rollins (why veto a trade if you don’t want to stay, especially after he took over the hitting title?), Lee, Halladay while he was here, Hamels (similar to Lee; market value contract, but he wasn’t interested in going for top dollar and liked his situation).

        Like

  10. I don’t remember the Phils even sniffing around Abreu or Puig. This off-season should be interesting, even if not very productive. Pap made himself even less attractive! Can you imagine? And, I don’t think Byrd gets any more play than at the trade deadline. We have discussed Brown’s value. So, unless they trade Hamels, and I don’t think they will, I see an overpay for Tomas and a mid-level SP like a Brandon McCarthy.

    Like

  11. Do you think Rollins would be willing to Boston with Hamels?

    If so this can should be able to give you at trade of Rollins, Hammels, and Bastardo for Swihart, Bogaerts, Owens, and Bettis. If the Sox do this trade and add Scherzer in Free agency they are an instant contender.

    Like

    1. Do not rule out the Sox going for Lester.
      I think they left that door open when they traded him to Oakland in July.

      Like

    1. I believe Trout was generally a consensus 1st round pick already so it isn’t a shock that a scout told his team to draft this kid. I actually coached against him in 2 games and it was pretty obvious how good he was, I believe he went 5-7 against us (both our pitchers who threw against him were DI committed pitchers). The crazy thing (and I think it’s little known) in that 5-7 he was 1-2 hitting a LAZER 3B left handed. Yes he switch hit in the one game.

      Like

  14. I saw Swihart (C), Henry Owens (P) and Rusney Castillo play twice last week. Castillo and Swihart aren’t great like I thought. Castillo is a more athletic Cespedes and has gap to gap power. Honestly, I’m glad that we didn’t outbid Boston on him.

    Owens didn’t pitch well but I would love to spin a deal with Boston for him. He pitches a lot like Hamels. Good fastball with a mile or two to add, a nasty breaking ball, and a up and coming changeup.

    Owens, Nola, Crawford, Franco, Tomas, and a Jackie Bradley or Garin Cecchini as a bench piece could be a nice foundation for 2017.

    Like

  15. I’m not sure anyone’s been following this but both MAG and Luis Garcia are flashing plus fastballs and decent breaking pitches. Both guys are sitting 95-97, touching 98 in MAG’s case and touching 99 in Garcia’s case. Garcia has a very good slider and MAG’s breaking pitches (he has several but has mostly been throwing a curve) are also good. With both guys, the main issue is control/command. I’m hoping that Garcia can develop into another bullpen piece and MAG can work his way into a starting role. MAG appears to have the stuff to transition into a mid-rotation starter, which would be huge.

    By the way, is anyone enjoying the losses as much as I am. If the Phillies finish in the bottom 10, they can add a top draft pick, a Cuban or Japanese free agent and a couple of MLB free agents in the same year.

    Now someone has to have the courage to explain to Ryan Howard that unless he comes back next year with a vengeance, his playing time next year is in jeopardy. He’s KILLING them – just dreadful. It’s like giving away wins.

    Like

    1. I would like to see the Phillies finish 11th from the bottom – finishing lower would present a temptation to sign an expensive free agent, which would be a huge mistake.

      Like

      1. ‘……present a temptation to sign an expensive free agent, …’
        Do you really think Ruben would ever entertain the thought to go down that road!
        He has been burned in the past and the media/talk shows has ensured he is constantly reminded of that this season.
        I would think he has learned a lesson..

        Like

      2. I normally would agree, but the only compensation carrying FAs are Scherzer and Shields, both of whom are not coming here, I believe. There are no position players. Cruz is an AL player and I think the $ goes to someone like Tomas. No chance they do not spend.

        Like

      3. I thought the Mets found last season that only the top 10 picks are protected, not the 10th drafting spot. The Phillies can finish 10th from the bottom and not have a protected pick, due to Houston. I want them to have a protected pick. The truly primo picks run out before you get to the unprotected picks.

        Like

      4. Yeah, I will do a rare thing on this board and admit I made a bad argument last offseason that they Phillies should exploit the protected status of their pick and go for a starter with a QO attached–specially, I liked Ubaldo Jimenez. Yeah, as it turns out I’m very glad we have Matt Imhof instead of Jimenez on that Baltimore contract.

        On the other hand, I do think there is still some logic to the idea of exploiting the protected status of the pick to sign a guy who can’t get a deal elsewhere to a below market one-year deal (a la Nelson Cruz) and then flip him at the deadline for something better than you would be likely to get in the second round. But that’s a high risk strategy and a lot can go wrong, and the Phillies haven’t exactly showed themselves to be great at strategic roster management so … I agree with Larry, I’d probably rather see the temptation removed entirely.

        Like

    2. They def have the arms to be a top flight bullpen (Giles, MAG, Diekman, Garcia, DeFratus, Bastardo, Papelbon) and a fairly cheap one (-Papelbon). I’d like them to stay away from Tomas (see above, too expensive for not being anything special or IMO even real good). I’d like to see them check in on the Japaneese SS and move him to 2B. The kid has legit power for a middle infielder and will cost FAR LESS then Tomas.

      Like

      1. I think David Murphy underestimates the Phillies belief that if they spend $, more people will come. They feel that their best asset is their financial position and can compete with any of the teams trying to sign Tomas. It is a matter of whether they want him or not. I don’t know if he is worth the $ he will get, but it will be close to $100Million, so I don’t know if I should root to get him or not!

        Like

        1. Whether to sign him at anything close to that price is an absolutely huge decision for any team. I’m on the fence too, although I’m extremely cautious. Ultimately, however, it’s a scouting decision. If you think he’s got a legtimate chance to be a superstar or is highly likely to be a well above average regular, then you probably risk it because the only asset you are surrendering to get the player is money, and the Phillies have that. Otherwise, the financial risk is, in my view, just too great given that the money can be put to other uses.

          The best time to take these risks was 3 or 4 years ago, when the going price was in the $25-45 million range – something that is lost on nobody who has followed this site for several years. Now they are just desperate and throwing money at the problem alone is insufficient, as Larry noted, it could actually set them back by tying up payroll when, otherwise, they would be clearing money.

          Like

          1. While sharing your caution, the risk/benefit analysis is quite different for Tomas than it would be for a free agent. IF Thomas is worth the contract, he’ll still be around and productive when the team next contends. A free agent pick up is far less likely to be.

            Like

        2. The Phillies organization is very short of talent and most of their major league talent is too old to contribute to the Phillies’ next contender. I agree, $$ are really the only thing they have to gain an advantage over other teams. Since we weren’t contending this season, or next, it was dumb to spend big $ on a guy like Burnett. The wise thing is to pay to get some Cuban talent, who can help us in the future, and front-load the contracts as much as possible, so they aren’t as big a drag on budget in the out-years when we will be contending. We failed to take that approach the last two seasons, except for MAG. The over-23 international talent is just about the only venue open to Phillies to accelerate the return to post-season play. They don’t want to sign a comped-FA and lose a draft pick. It is just a short-term Band-Aid with not benefit to future competitiveness to sign guys like Burnett, Byrd, and Ruiz, unless the team is willing to flip them for young talent when we gall out of contention, as we did last season and this year. The Phillies have proven that they are either totally unwilling to do that or unable to sign such players to a reasonable enough contract that they are tradable. Which brings us back to the Cubans. Yes, they are a gamble. Every player, even vets, are a gamble. Halladay and Lee were dominant starters, until suddenly they weren’t. Howard was a feared bomber, until suddenly he wasn’t. Domonic Brown was a rising star, until suddenly he wasn’t. You can’t add talent, without risking some $$. Let’s at least risk those $$ on guys who have a chance of helping in 2017 and beyond.

          Like

      2. I don’t think what Salisbury says is all that different from Murphy. He says they have a need for Tomas, they’re interested, they’re sending scouts, they like him better than Castillo who cost $70 mill. The Phillies sent scouts to see Castillo’s workout, had a private workout, certainly had interest and a need, and were unwilling to cough up as many $$ as Boston was. Salisbury says that Tomas will cost 50% more than Castillo did. He really never says or even suggests that the Phillies are willing to cough up the necessary $100 million, just that they’re very interested. If we look back at all the articles on Cuban signees — the Phillies are always interested, they always send scouts, they just have never been willing to pay the going rate for a Cuban, with the exception of MAG, on whom a lot of the usually aggressive teams didn’t like the health of his arm and dropped out of the hunt. If the Phillies win the bidding for Tomas, it will be a first for a healthy player, whom other teams are hotly pursuing. Inevitably, the Phillies $$ calibration always says the going rate for Cuban and Japanese international players is ‘too much’. The going rate is what it is. You either add the talent, or you don’t. Of course it’s an overpay, compared to what the monopoly pays for draftees and players under team control.

        Like

        1. And that is why I am in favor of an international draft. All players from other countries wishing to play in the MLB must declare for it by Sept1 and the draft occurs sometime between the GM meetings and the Winter meetings.

          Like

          1. DMAR:
            A few years ago, when Bud Selig introduced that idea,, there were all sorts of ideas from combining it with the regular Rule 4 to a separate draft alone. I submitted a two-round draft of internationals to Ms Nyguen,(sp) of MLB offices.
            Total of 60 player draft, and those not drafted were free to sign with anyone they wished in an open market.
            Lottery determined the draft order of all teams….lottery every two years.
            Year one, team drafting first in the first round, then drafts last in the second round.
            Team drafting second in the first round, drafts 29th in the second round.
            All the way down in sequence until the team drafting 30th, then drafts first in the second round at 31st.
            The second year of the draft…..just inverse the draft order from the previous year.
            Third year…start a new new lottery of all 30 teams..
            The Latin American players in the MLB…..about 30% were against any draft of any sort, and threatened the MLB thru the MLBPA.

            So will there be a draft anytime soon…probably not. The international allocation of pool money seems to be the way they decided to go and probably will continue.
            .

            Like

            1. I like it Romus but correct me if I’m wrong your draft would or wouldn’t be inclusive of guys like Tanaka, Dharvish, Soler, Abreu etc?

              I don’t want to denounce the Latin American players but as far as I’m concerned they have no standing to make any threats when our US born talent has to take it up the keester a/k/a Brady Aiken.

              Let this Tomas guy deal with being drafted by the Astros. This is our game played in our country(the best league in the world that is) ummm don’t know what to do about Canada and the Blue Jays but you get what I am saying.

              Like

            2. It would exclude the ‘older’ foreign players.
              The Latin American MLB players have a very powerful voice, a few hundred players in the league.

              Like

        2. David Murphy seems to think the Phillies will pass on Tomas.
          Jim Salisbury says they will be there this weekend, along with many other clubs, and could make the investment.
          That is what I get from their respective articles.

          Like

            1. How is a player who hasn’t hit THAT many home runs in a lesser league and a player that is seen as a low average low OBP guy your answer for the 4 hitter. Not to mention someone who strikes out A TON against lesser pitching. We already have that player on the team.

              Like

        3. Guess you don’t read our friend Matt Winkleman’s columns about all the talent coming up from Clearwater and creating logjams in a good way.

          Like

  18. I love seeing it come undone for the Braves but scary for us if they fire the whole lot of them they might over night be 5 games better. Wren is an a$$ and every bit to blame for the dumb extension he gave to Uggla and the over the top sign of B.J.

    The Tigers got trapped in the window and look on the verge of suffering the same fate as the Phillies. Verlander’s arm could be cooked and Cabrera’s k% is up and his BB rate is down and the ISO is 80 points lower than last year. The worst part for them is they have no real young talent to speak of. If Scherzer leaves and Smyly for Price doesn’t turn into a long term deal what the hay!

    speaking of Smyly Anyone see those geniuses from Tampa lately. I’m having a 70’s theme B-Day party at my house in a few weeks I hear those guys are good at that sort of thing and will certainly be available.

    Finally The A’s every analytic nerds wet dream is on their back looking up saying what the hell just happened. Billy better call Brad and Jonah and get some acting advice on what he should do this time if he fails to win the last game of the year.

    Like

    1. Since that trade for Lester, things have not turned out so well for Billy Beane and the As. Cespedes may have meant more to the middle of that lineup then originally thought by Billy.

      Like

    3. The funny thing with the A’s is, Lester is pitching really well and so far Adam Dunn is outproducing what Cespedes was doing with Oakland and what he’s doing in Boston. Their problem seems to be that everybody else has stopped hitting.

      Like

      1. Quiet! It’s much more fun to dance around Billy Beane singing, “nahhh nahhh nahhh nahhh nahhh, you believe in nummmmm-bers!”

        Like

  19. Interesting comparison with the Phils and the Pence trade in 2011. That was the year to win a WS, and I know I haven’t gotten over that series with the Cards, and I don’t think the organization has. This is Tigers last shot, I think. I haven’t forgiven Lee for blowing 4-0 lead in game 2, and so was fine with trading him last year. Wonder what the Dodgers would have given up? Now, cannot trade him, but torn on Hamels, so back to the LarryM discussion, I am one that would have to have an overwhelming return to move him. Probably not realistic, but I would keep him if offers are anything short of 3 prime prospects. It would take 2 of Seager, Urias, Pederson and a 3rd prospect, using the Dodgers as an example.

    Like

  20. Lots of discussion on whether to sign or pass on Tomas. Personally I would take the risk, but as Eric D and some others have stated it is indeed a risky move. The sad thing is we should not be discussing this right now. The reason we are discussing whether to make a gamble with this kid or not is because the organization ruined this team. Signing Werth to an extension instead of Howard would have been a better decision. Singleton could have been their plan to replace him, but he got traded. They resigned Howard because they “didn’t have a replacement” which is a ridiculous reason to give a guy that long and big a deal. If they would have waited they would’ve seen Ruf’s explosion in the minors. He could have platooned at first with a left handed hitter…like idk maybe Brandon Moss. Dom Brown was over evaluated for sure. I am not going to blame the organization completely, but he fields like a little league kid, his path to balls in the OF are awful and he was supposed to play RF. We have covered the bad cliff lee and pence trades 100 times already so I won’t talk about those. Basically my point is that we should have a choice whether to take a gamble on a player like Tomas. We shouldn’t have to sign a player because we are desperate for an infusion of young talent. Bad decisions have forced us to try and make Tomas a key piece to our team, instead of allowing him to compliment other really good players.

    I also just want to throw a scenario out and see if anyone else thinks it would be interesting.
    How would everyone feel about a deal of Hamels to LAD with Puig as the center piece coming back? I know LA has some OF depth, but not sure if they’d be willing to trade Puig. His speeding, showing up late, and immaturity might make them think about it, especially if Pederson starts to light it up. Puig would be bring some excitement to Philly and would sell tickets.

    Like

    1. I agree completely with the top part of your post. The Phillies FO put them in this position. The Werth signing would have been tough, I think Werth was and is a product of having good hitters around him. Also I think most people thought at the time that the Werth signing was def an over pay. The Howard signing was dumb bc it wasn’t necessary at the time, there were still a couple of years before he was a FA and how different it would have been if they waited, so different. With Dom Brown 2 things, 1. If he was over valued then it was not only by the Phillies but by just about everyone. He wasn’t just a top 4 prospect in the Phillies org, he was a top 4 prospect in all of baseball. 2. Was he over valued? I mean he did have a season where he put up some solid numbers so the talent is in there somewhere, it’s just a matter of showing itself on a consistent basis.

      As for the Hamel for Puig trade . . Would you want someone who has all the issues that you listed? Also he hasn’t really played well after his first half. He may be more trouble then his talents allow.

      Like

      1. I think it just depends on how the FO feels about Puig’s issues that I mentioned. If his issues are something they feel won’t be a problem long term than go for it. A guy like Utley would be a good example for Puig to learn from, as far as going about the game the right way is concerned. I don’t know how the Dodgers feel about Puig on those issues either. Even if both sides agreed on a trade, Puig”s antics may rub some of our older guys the wrong way. I think his numbers will turn around and even though his second half has been pretty bad he still has hit .297 on the season. Puig is not due to become a free agent until 2020 and his contract is extremely team friendly. Scroll down and look at salaries:

        http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/puigya01.shtml?redir

        He won’t make over $9 mil until 2018. I think he really has a passion for the game and is just a young guy who has a lot of money and makes silly mistakes (speeding, showing up late, etc) I think as he matures his passion for the game will stand out more than his off the field issues and he will be a very good player. His contract is low compared to what other good out fielders make. This may be a huge incentive for him to put up good numbers , especially since he will become a free agent around age 29 if he is not locked up prior to that. Someone proposed trading Rollins and Hamels to Boston for a good haul of guys, I think sending the two out west could be a good option as well. Rollins has the no trade clause, but may be willing to go to the dodgers since he is from CA and would be playing for a contending team. One that would be adding Hamels to a rotation of Kershaw, Greinke, and Ryu. If we trade Byrd this off season (LIKE WE SHOULD!) then Rollins may realize its rebuilding time and his last chance at another championship is elsewhere. LAD could move Hanley to third or sign another third baseman like Sandoval, Aramis Ramirez, or Chase Headley.

        In return for Hamels and Rollins we could get Puig, Urias, Scott Schebler, Darnell Sweeney, and maybe two players of the Arano/Valentin variety (Preferbly pitchers). Puig would be able to replace Byrd in RF, Schebler should be able to be a nice LF who has decent pop, speed, and hit tool. Urias would be the frontline starting pitching prospect we have been missing for a while. He’d be a nice addition to Nola and possibly Biddle, Morgan, Imhof etc down the line. Sweeney is a guy who could be traded because the dodgers already have Dee Gordon. He would give us some options with Pullin and Valentin at second as well. Valentin is more likely a utility guy IMO so Sweeney would be a nice guy to have in case Pullin’s defense doesn’t improve as we hope. Sweeney is quick and has gap power and could make up a nice infield up the middle along with JPC. The Dodgers also have a good amount of relief pitchers who are near or got called up to the majors. Acquiring one of them in the deal could be an option as well.

        Like

        2. Why not just trade them Hamels and Utley, two California natives, for Pederson+ instead of Puig considering all the issues he has?

          Like

    2. Unless you have a truly elite player (something the Phillies foolishly did believe they had), first basemen are easily replaceable.

      Like

      1. I think a realistic return would look unacceptable to most of the people who post here, and to most Phillies fans in general. I think Amaro knows that, and I think for that reason and others, no deal will happen.

        Like

        1. I partially agree with you Larry. I would not be surprised if Hamels is not traded. Ruben knows he needs a really good return because our they depleted the farm trying to win another world series. The farm has been improving, but could be better for sure. He can not afford to trade Hamels and end up with nothing like he did when he sent Lee to Seattle.

          I still think there is a chance Hamels is traded this off season. Scherzer and Lester are the best two arms available this winter. There are some other pretty good starters available, but no one I would feel comfortable with staring game one of a playoff series and there is also draft picks involved with some of these free agents. If a team misses out on Lester and Scherzer than Hamels may be an alternative. My only hope is that if he is traded we get more than what the Rays got for Price. I thought Tampa would get a lot more for him.

          Like

          1. But Price and Hamels are in such different situations. Price was a pure rental with FA looming at the end of the year. If you trade for Hamels you get him on what is a a essentially a 4 year, market rate contract – something you can’t replicate in FA with a relatively young (31 YO) pitcher at his peak. Hamels offers teams a market based contract and a shorter term exposure. So they should be able to get quite a bit more for him than was obtained for Price, although still not as much as folks around here are expecting.

            Like

            1. Yeah, the gap between what was obtained for Price and what people expect for Hamels is huge. They can (and probably would) get substantially more for Hamels than the Rays got for Price while still disappointing most fans.

              Like

          2. What does Hamels bring back from LAD?
            More then likely three prospects….not all tier one guys.
            Maybe Joc Pederson for one.
            Then a RHP, one of Anderson or Lee, and a LHP, one of Windle or Reed.
            Overall, not that overwhelming, but what may be a reasonable return.

            Like

            1. Pederson, Anderson, and Reed for Hamels would bring us some good talent. It also frees up some money to sign a free agent in a year or two when hopefully things begin to look up. Urias, Reed, and Schebler might be my preference. With the dodgers farm system if you got one of their top three guys and then 2 others from the top ten, you would do pretty well.

              Like

            2. Though Anderson and Reed are in the LAD top ten, not sure what their ceiling is according to other scouts through the league….for all we know they may be mid-to-back of the end rotation guys.
              Pitching prospects are so hard to gauge.

              Like

  23. The more and more I see Franco the more excited I get. IMO the bat will come . . He’s prob pressing because he knows if he plays well he could come into ST at least in a fight for the starting job. So yeah the bat isn’t worrying me too much. His defense over at 3B has been gold glove like, along with his arm. He is def a level (or 2) above Asche. I’ve been impressed.

    Like

    1. The arm and reaction time are exceptional as is his body control and coordination – most of that stuff is God given talent that most players simply don’t have. He looks, at worst, like a guy who will play an average third base but could become above average or better. The fielding plays very well with the bat – I’m excited. Cody is not long for third as a Phillie and I really like him, but Franco has some serious talent. Just wait until he really grooves his swing and starts lofting balls – he has outstanding raw power.

      Like

    2. We are going to have to be patient with the bat, he’ll probably struggle a lot at the plate his first year in the majors and might be 2 or 3 years before we see him really excel as a hitter, but I believe the talent is there and the bat speed sure as heck is there.

      Like

    3. I think Maikel Franco could be a Gold Glove candidate within three years. Rated best in the Int League by coaches, so he does have the past pedigree.

      Like

          1. GG is among the most meaningless awards (probably the MOST meaningless) in baseball; not for what it represents, but for how it is awarded. The hope is that Franco can develop into an average to plus 1 WAR defender – if he stays fit, that seems possible (although his straight line speed probably is about a 25 – his infield hit yesterday was laughable – he had an eternity to get down the line and if the first baseman had fielded the ball cleanly he easily would have been out). He sure does pass the “eye test” as a fielder.

            Like

  24. I downloaded the Phillies Minor League stats and started slicing and dicing them. I filtered out players over 25 years of age. I also restricted the hitters to 100 or more ABs. Who had the highest and lowest OPS based on the filtered criteria above. If you said “Squeaky Toy” Cuicas you’d be right for highest OPS. He had .864 OPS. Dugan, Zier, Astudillo, Carlos Duran, Crawford and Tromp. Zier is probably the only one who won’t get any votes in our top 30, mainly due to his age while playing in the GCL. Duran might be the most interesting one here. He was getting some call outs near the end of the season but for the most part he’s unknown… on this site.

    Worst OPS was not Larry Greene, which was my guess before I did the analysis. It was Hewitt. Remember him? He had enough ABs to be included even though he was released during the season. Greene was 4th worst. Robinson Torres and Nick Ferdinand were in between. If we were using a Six Sigma approach, there would be no reason to keep any of the 4. Jan Hernandez in #6 worst. There have been some good things written about him although his hit tool is almost non-existent. His slugging percentage is middle of the pack. He gets another season.

    Like

  25. Great post of a tweet from Jay Jaffe on the state of the Phillies – he nails it.

    http://www.thegoodphight.com/2014/9/19/6531651/sis-jay-jaffe-says-many-depressing-things-about-the-phillies

    If one were to place “futures” bets on baseball franchise, few if any would have longer odds than the Phillies. The team is a couple of injuries away from being a 100-110 loss team next year. It’s fugly.

    A ton of things will have to be done right and break right for the Phillies to be relevant in 2016 – if we’re lucky, 2015 will be a positive developmental year. If we’re unlucky, Lee won’t come back strong or get traded, Howard will keep playing regardless of his profound negative effect on team performance and Rollins, Papelbon and Utley will continue to decline and Hamels will get injured or have an off year. Seriously, next year’s team really could lose over 100 games.

    Thank you again, Mr. Amaro – I look forward to another couple of years to your shrewd stewardship (NOT!).

    Like

    2. It’s a worst-case-scenario type of outlook, but plausible. I would like to say that even though the Rockies have Tulo to trade, the Phillies have Hamels. And Tulo is signed for 7 more years, including the next 5 at $20 million per, and is always hurt.

      Jaffe also mentioned Franco and Biddle, but not Crawford and Nola. I don’t think the farm system outlook is as bleak as he implies.

      Like

      1. I love Crawford and really like Nola, but in terms of next year, I’m pretty sure Crawford won’t be up any earlier than September and Nola will have at least 2-3 months in the minors, perhaps most of the year. And Franco probably still needs a few more months in AAA to focus on handling breaking pitches. He’s just going to see looping curve balls until he can show that he can do anything more with them than swing and ground them to third – I’m hopeful he can but it’s a work in progress.

        Like

        1. Yeah, I agree that they’ll stink next year and won’t get much help from the farm system. I just got the idea that Jaffe was extending the misery into future seasons too, especially in that last section.

          Like

        2. Agree Catch. 2016 is the future, not 2015. Franco in particular needs to start at LV next season with nothing earlier than a June-July arrival, and a promotion would only be in the event he’s productive at AAA. Personally, I see no reason why Nola should be rushed

          Like

  26. Down to six last games now.
    Six one-run losses will suffice and keep a good place in the top ten pick’s category for next season’s Rule 4 draft.
    I think the Phillies currently stand somewhere in the neighborhood around 7th/8th.

    Like

  27. Everyone wants Howard, Utley, and Rollins (the 3 greatest Phillies ever at their positions) gone. I understand wanting to get younger and better but getting younger and worse is not my idea of improving the team. There’s no way that Cesar Hernandez and Galvis are an improvement over Rollins and Utley. Not yet anyway. And we have no one else to put there at this time. Crawford is our future but he’s at least one year away and maybe 2. Pullin and Valentin will fight it out to see who might be our future 2B. Asche may get a shot at that job too if Franco takes his job after June, assuming Franco has a good first half at LHV. Obviously, putting Franco at 1B mid next season is a way to go also if they decide to move Howard at that point. Yes, I think they’ll try to trade him all winter but I’m not expecting any success. I do however believe that Hamels should be traded if they can get back a fair deal. This will certainly be the most talked about topic this winter. If they can’t win with Hamels, why not trade him now while he has max value and restock the cupboard. Remember however what Pete Rose said about young guys with potential. It just means that a guy is expected to do something and hasn’t done it yet.

    Like

Comments are closed.