Starting Pitching Report Card, Lehigh Valley and Reading

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Report card for starting pitchers at Lehigh Valley and Reading.  Clearwater and Lakewood are up next.  A reminder that grades are based on pre season expectations against the players themselves not against each other.  A= Far exceeds expectations; B= Exceeds expectations; C= At expectations; D= Below Expectations; F= Disaster

Lehigh Valley

Greg Smith, 30, Re-signed as a free agent in 2014; 27 games, 9-11 with a 4.40ERA; 157.1IP 176H 37BB 92K; 17HR allowed; 2.1BB/5.2K per 9; .286 opp avg; 1.35 WHIP; 0.63 GO/AO; .297 vs. LHH, .282 vs. RHH; Post All Star Game: 2-5 with a 5.58ERA in 9 starts; .318 opp avg with RISP.  Smith was serviceable this year, transitioning into a side armor.  Best that really can be said is that he gave Lehigh Valley innings, some good, some bad.  Grade: C; 2015: Elsewhere

Sean O’Sullivan, 27, SIgned as a free agent in 2014; 25 starts; 6-10 with a 4.30ERA; 148.2IP 154H 50BB 94K; 17HR allowed; .271 opp avg; 1.37 WHIP; 0.79 GO/AO; 3.0BB/5.7K per 9; .282 vs. LHH, .261 vs. RHH, .323 with RISP; 2-1 with a 2.56 ERA in 5 August starts; There were times O’Sullivan threw well, and he was an innings eater for Lehigh Valley, but basically, it was a mediocre year for the RHP.  Home runs simply killed him and the high opponents average with RISP tell the tale. Grade: C; 2015: Could be back in Lehigh Valley providing depth but more likely, elsewhere. 

Brad Lincoln, 29, Acquired from Toronto in 2013; 27 games (22 starts); 6-11 with a 5.11ERA; 123.1IP 123H 58BB 112K; 13HR allowed; .260 opp. avg; 1.47 WHIP; 0.79 GO/AO; 4.2BB/8.2K per 9; .271 vs. LHH, .252 vs. RHH; Since July 1st: 2-8 with a 6.12 ERA; .281 opp avg with RISP; Lincoln started the year with the Phils, was awful and was sent down.  He pitched well early for Lehigh Valley but his second half turned into an unmitigated disaster.  Grade: D; 2015: Elsewhere

Jeff Manship, 29, Signed as a free agent in 2014; 8 games (5 starts); 0-1 with a 4.62ERA for Lehigh Valley; 25.1IP 29H 18BB 21K; 1HR allowed; .290 opp avg; 1.86WHIP; 1.55 GO/AO; 6.4BB/7.5K per 9; .340 vs. LHH, .234 vs. RHH; Manship spent about half the season with the Phils before injuring himself and then getting sent down to Lehigh Valley.  For the ‘Pigs, he was not very good.  Grade: C-; 2015: Elsewhere

Jon Pettibone, 24, Phils 3rd round pick in 2008; 5 starts, 2-0 with a 3.42ERA; 26.1IP 22H 6BB 13K; 0HR allowed; .224 opp avg; 1.06 WHIP; 0.67 GO/AO; Pettibone missed almost the entire year injured.  In 2013, it seemed the Phils may have found a dependable 4th or 5th starter in Pettibone, but the injuries have now changed the perspective in Pettibone who must re-prove himself in 2015.  Grade: Inc. 2015: The hope is that he will be healthy and start in the Lehigh Valley rotation

Adam Morgan, 24, Phils 5th round pick in 2011; Morgan was out all year recovering from surgery.  He is expected to throw in the FIL and the hope is that he enters Spring Training healthy. The Phils will face a decision as to whether to add him to the 40 man roster.

Reading

Aaron Nola, 21, Phils 1st round pick in 2014; 12 games between Clearwater and Reading; 4-3 with a 2.93ERA; 55.1IP 49H 10BB 45K; .240 opp avg; 1.07 GO/AO; 0.90 GO/AO; 1.6BB/7.3K per 9; For Reading: 2-0 with a 2.63ERA and 1.25WHIP.  Cant ask for a whole lot more than what we got from Nola who was on a pitch/innings limited following his season at LSU.  There is no reason to be anything but excited by his potential at this stage.  Grade: A-; 2015: Likely to start in Reading but could move quickly.

Severino Gonzalez, Soon to be 22, Signed as a free agent in 2010; 27 starts; 9-13 with a 4.59ERA; 158.2IP 169H 34BB 115K; 23HR allowed; .270 opp avg; 1.28 WHIP; 0.68 GO/AO; 1.9BB/6.5K per 9; .273 vs. LHH, .266 vs. RHH; 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA in August.  If you take away an awful start early in the year where Gonzalez gave up 10ER, his ERA over 26 starts is 4.12.  While the competition clearly caught up to Gonzalez to a degree there is still reason for cautious optimism that his upside is higher than say, Julio Rodriguez.  He threw alot of innings and was overpowering at times, poor at other times.  At 22, still time.  Grade: C+; 2015: Lehigh Valley rotation

Adam Loewen, 30, Signed as a free agent in 2014; 19 starts, 5-5 with a 3.25ERA; 113.2IP 91H 60BB 84K; 6HR allowed; .222 opp avg; 1.33 WHIP; 1.36 GO/AO; 4.8BB/6.7K per 9; .190 vs. LHH; .236 vs. RHH; .221 opp avg over last month; .147 opp avg with RISP; Post All Star: 3-2 with a 2.73ERA; Ok, Loewen scares me in a Ryan Vogelsong kind of way.  The talent is there and I have a fear it re-appears in the majors for an organization other than the Phils.  While recognizing he was throwing against AA hitters, Loewen’s reintroduction to the mound went very well.  His splits are excellent with the exception of a walk rate that would kill him in the majors.  By the end of the season, he was Reading’s most consistent starter.  Grade: B+; 2015: My hope is Lehigh Valley, my fear is another organization.  He is a minor league free agent. Correction per Matt WInkleman: Loewen signed a 2 year minor league contract, which likely lands him in Lehigh Valley next season.

Hoby Milner, 23, Phils 7th round pick in 2012; 25 starts; 10-6 with a 4.21ERA; 143.1IP 146H 56BB 86K; 25HR allowed; .267 opp avg; 1.41 WHIP; 0.61 GO/AO; 3.5BB/5.4K per 9; .218 with RISP; Post All Star Game: 8 starts, 5-1 with a 3.47ERA. Milner came on fairly strong after the all star break, although he will have alot of trouble sustaining any level of success at levels above AA with the BB/K rates he has.  His numbers were generally comparable to the very good year he had in CLearwater in 2012 with the exception that he walked more hitters, and struck out less.  A 40 man roster spot would not have to be used for Milner until the 2016 season, so the Phils can be conservative with his placement for ’15.  Grade: B-; 2015: I expect him to start in Reading and move up when/if he shows the ability to dominate at times.

Ryan O’Sullivan, 24, Acquired from Dodgers in 2012; 37 games (12 starts); 7-8 with a 3.91ERA; 112.2IP 112H 42BB 70K; .258 opp avg; 1.37 whip; 1.56 GO/AO; 3.4BB/5.6K per 9; As a starter, 5-4 with a 4.36ERA; .263 opp avg; 1.44 WHIP; O’Sullivan pitched well this year and was transitioned into a starting role mid season out of necessity because of injuries suffered in Reading.  He generally did a good job.  I think he moves back to the bullpen next year where his stuff plays a bit better.  Grade: B-; 2015: Lehigh Valley bullpen

Jesse Biddle, 22, Phils 1st round pick in 2010; 19 starts, 5-10 with a 4.58ERA; 94.1IP 82H 51BB 92K 12HR allowed; .234 opp. avg; 1.41 WHIP; 0.95 GO/AO; 4.9BB/8.8K per 9; .271 with RISP; 0-5 with an 11.17ERA since June 1.  Biddle’s season turned into pretty much a well documented disaster. First he got hit by a chunk of hail causing concussion like symptoms, then upon his return he found himself in a post concussion psychological “funk”  during which he took about a month to return to the mound.  Upon his return, he injured his leg and was shut down for the season.  He had no success from June on and next year should be considered a fresh start in the Reading rotation.  The talent is still there, and Biddle must be added to the 40 man during the off season.  Grade: D-; 2015: Reading

Chris Bootcheck, 35, Signed as a free agent in 2014; 16 starts; 4-8 with a 5.17ERA; 78.1IP 87H 33BB 53K; 11HR allowed; .287 opp avg; 1.53 WHIP; 0.74 GO/AO; 3.8BB/5.5K per 9; Bootcheck was consistently pretty bad first for Lehigh Valley and then for Reading. I suspect his career may be over.  Grade: D; 2015: Not with the organization

 

 

19 thoughts on “Starting Pitching Report Card, Lehigh Valley and Reading”

  1. Adam Loewen signed a 2 year minor league contract because of this exact scenario. The only ways he is in another org is if the Phillies release him or he is selected in the Rule 5 draft

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  2. While Biddle’s year was terrible, I agree the stuff is still there. His fastball hasn’t diminished and the curve was still dominate at times. Especially, earlier in the year. I’m almost tempted to just send him to LHV and tell him it’s time to step up and enough w/ the excuses. I know you wouldn’t normally move someone up after the year he had but is a 3rd year in Reading really gonna do anything?Biddle is probably 1 more mediocre/injury plagued year away from becoming a complete afterthought in the organization.

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    1. I’d like to see how he does in spring training, but I’d move him up to help improve his confidence and make things easier on him. Lehigh Valley is a much more favorable pitching environmental than Reading. Sometimes all a pitcher needs to take his confidence to the next level is to spend some time pitching in a pitcher’s park. It could really help Biddle.

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        1. If he’s in the bullpen, he’s going to become another Joe Savery. His stuff plays up MUCH better in the rotation than the bullpen and combine that with inconsistent command and self-confidence issues and you have the making of not-so-good relief pitcher. Nope, for Jesse, I think his career will be made or broken as a starter.

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  3. Biddle is still young at 22 so I am not as worried as others about this year. It was a confluence of setbacks over the whole year. Next year is a fresh start.

    Remember that Biddle’s age differential in Reading is over -2. No need to rush him next season.

    In terms of talent the Reading arms are in pretty good shape.

    Hopefully, Pettibone and Morgan can come back next year as well. I know they are considered back of the rotation guys but every rotation needs those type of starters.

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  4. Possibly a better phrase/word then ‘funk’ could be prolonged post-concussion syndrome.
    The other sports …NHL and NFL…have baselines set up each pre-season and then they are used to determine level of healing. Maybe baseball should look into also.

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    1. he’s pretty much been in a funk for last two years. decent era last year but a brutal walk rate. has never had a good whip in a year yet. decent stuff,lousy command isn’t a lot to get excited about

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      1. Biddle was doing well at Reading until large hail blocks hit him in the head and caused concussion like symptoms.

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        1. I am not giving up on Biddle, but his ranking has sllpped for me. I know he was injured and the concussion thing was probably lingering for longer than we knew. But, I think he may start at Clearwater next year. I am not sure he starts off at Reading.

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          1. Biddle slips on my list as well. If nothing else, he’s lost close to 2 years of effective development time with the pertussis, foot injury, concussion, leg injury and messing himself up pitching through all of this. The only reason to start him in CLW would be to avoid the frigid April nights of the EL. He started 2013 well in the cold weather. He needs a sustained period of good health to get back his feel for pitching in a rhythm and refining his command of all his pitches. It really has been a two year struggle for him. I think he was mishandled and should not have pitched through all the health problems that he pitched through.

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  5. I know this isn’t the spot but does it not shock anyone els that Mike Schmidt didn’t know that Franco was a 3B (asked what position he played in the minors during the game today). I mean now only do you do Sunday games but you’re a special instructor in ST. You would think he’s know what position the Phillies top prospects plays. It’s as bad as Matt Stairs saying he didn’t know what WHIP was. Smh.

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    1. Yeah, I caught that too. Let’s face it: Schmitty is not there to provide penetrating analysis or deep knowledge about the franchise, he’s there to sit in a rocking chair and tell stories during meaningless Sunday afternoon games. And occasionally spout off with a totally uninformed opinion, as old men do.

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  7. I am looking for Biddle to be strong this year. He was dominant the first part of 2013 in Reading until he became ill. I believe he will return to dominance. Severino Gonzalez should be good too. Keep him at Reading to start; then Lehigh Valley. Get some used-to-be-promising pitchers for Lehigh Valley and try to catch lightening like Vogelsong and Grilli, but keep them (Leowen) this time.

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  8. And last year for Biddle was the whooping cough (if I remember correctly). Not making excuses but just stating facts. He’s got a good arm, he’s a lefty, and he’s 22. We’re surely not “pitching rich” so I’m just flat out pulling for him right now. And I think someone made a great point on the post-concussion issue. I have no idea what testing was/wasn’t done – though I imagine they didn’t mess around with things, but I could see it affecting him for some time so when he says “his head wasn’t right” that could mean a couple things:)

    I had my first concussion at 48 years old two years ago and I can tell you a) it wasn’t fun and b) it wasn’t a “avoid the light” kind of thing but for a pretty long time I was a little “off”.

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  10. It would be nice to see at least one of Biddle, Morgan, or Martin contribute to the big league rotation next year. MAG is also a guy who could start, but he and Martin could very well stay in the pen if there are trades or injuries this off season. I think Biddle or Morgan could be put in front of Buchanan at some point next season if they are healthy. I would prefer to see Morgan as the #4 and let Biddle spend some time at Reading, then Lehigh Valley before a possibly call up later. Loewen is another possibility to see some time in the rotation next year. If the org. decides they don’t want to rush Morgan, Biddle,etc. into the rotation there are plenty of starters they could get through free agency. Roberto Hernandez or Jerome Williams could come back next season. Brandon McCarthy is probably the best free agent pitcher that we would sign and is a possibility. Vogelsong and Harang are both free agents after this season as well. Justin Masterson is a guy I think might be a good guy to buy low on and possibly flip him at the deadline. Lee and Burnett are both wildcards IMO and who knows if either will come back and if they one or both do come back how effective will they be? There a lot of directions the org. could go next year. It should be interesting to see how the rotation pans out and if any of our guys in the minors can come contribute.

    I almost to forgot to mention Nola as a guy who could come up later in the year as well.

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