46 thoughts on “Keith Law Ranks Phillies Prospects (Org Rank, Top 100, Top 10)”

1. Spread the Dugan love I see a key future mlb cog there

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   1. Just spread it all over yourself

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      1. That’s kind of gross, but hilarious

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2. I feel a little bit vindicated for pumping Severino and Dugan. Cant wait for the season to start.

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3. I like the report on Seve. 4 average MLB pitches makes him a 4/5 which has real value. Sandberg, Knapp, hopefully, have big years, and with a big June draft, really gives us a big boost in the system. May be far more exciting than the Major League team.

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4. The Jake Sweaney love is sort of interesting.

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5. I wonder, did he not consider MAG and Ethan Martin? Martin pitched in the majors last year and MAG, obviously, didn’t. But their absences are the two most notable, I’d be surprised if he’s that down on Martin, seems like there’s a major leaguer in there.

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   1. He had Martin as a sure fire reliever and that wasn’t good enough to make his list

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      1. Yeah, I think Law is much more of an upside guy. It just seems hard for me personally to see how you rank a catcher just drafted out of high school, who is only the third-best catcher on the list, in front of a guy who could potentially lock down the 8th inning next year. I mean, I understand the reasoning, but the idea that high-leverage relievers grow on trees is kind of countered by, you know, my experience watching 162 Phillies games last year.

         The fact that everyone seems to more or less be shrugging off Quinn’s injury is really great news.

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         1. I know KLaw had Sweaney ranked right with Denney and a step behind Reese Mcguire and Cuiffo around the draft. The ranking is not surprising.

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6. Yeah Giles missing was also kind of surprising, he really doesn’t value RPs high. Sandberg 6th is pretty good, especially since Longehagen’s report on him was pretty negative.

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7. RANKING BY LAW!
   RANKING BY LAW!
   DUH DUH
   RANKING BY LAW!
   RANKING BY LAW!
   DUH DUH

   The main difference between Law and the rest is how high he is on Crawford, and that is what is buoying our system ranking. And as has been noted on here after top 3 there is a drop off but since there is a similar ratio of upside/risk with about the next 10 guys you can put them in any order you want. And it is all based on what your preference is. The one interesting thing with all of these rankings is that Quinn is not being knocked very much for the injury. Ir you read the Joe Jordan interview(http://www.sungazette.comhttp//www.sungazette.com/page/content.detail/id/602144.html) with Mitch Rupert and Quinn’s interview(http://www.phoulballz.com/2014/01/shortstop-prospect-quinn-has-positive.html) with JayFloyd over at phoulballz.com people feel very optimistic that Quinn will be able to bet back to where he was prior to the injury. Quinn and Joseph returning to their prior prospect status makes our system a hell of a lot better than where it stands now with they having pending questions about their health.

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   1. While, normally, it doensn’t make sense moving a player down in the defensive spectrum due to the presence of a blocking player in the big leagues or a more highly regarded player in the minors, I think the Phillies should seriously consider moving Quinn from short to centerfield if he doesn’t make vast strides at short later this year. Quinn has missed a lot of development time and, I believe, would benefit from being able to focus more on his offense. The move down on the spectrum is not significant and there’s almost no question that, unless he gets hurt, Crawford is going to be our shortstop of the future (unless Freddy G. somehow turns into a star, which isn’t quite as unlikely as you might imagine). The change in postion combined with learning how to switch hit is, in my view, too much to deal with when combined with a serious injury and one year plus loss of developmental time. They need to lighten his load.

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      1. I agree with you catch on the positional move for Quinn, however, I prefer he give it a go at 2nd base first, before heading out to CF. Since his biggest liability at ss was his throwing, the toss is closer to first base and easier from the 2nd base position.

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         1. I thought his arm strength was supposed to be okay and his problem was with his footwork getting himself in proper position to field and throw. Footwork will be more of an issue at 2B as he has to learn to handle the pivot and keep himself from being launched into LF or losing a knee. He may end up being a trade. Crawford has SS nailed down if he stays healthy and develops half-way normally. In CF the team likely seeks someone with power, so Altherr gets the early lead. If the team wants D/speed/OBP then Tocci is major competition. At 2B he’s only going up against Hernandez and Pullin, so he can win the spot if he can handle the D.

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            1. Did not question his arm strength…it was his accuracy…due in large part to poor footwork as you mentioned. But throwing to first from the second basemen’s area, you can afford to have poor footwork and still muscle the ball over there with a greater degree of accuracy.
               And agree that his competition will be limited if he can master the D.

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               1. I know you didn’t question his arm strength, but if footwork is a problem with throw accuracy from SS it may be a much larger problem on turning the double play at 2B, plus he needs to learn to protect himself from the sliding runner. SS is more about arm strength, but footwork can impede that. 2B is more about footwork, so if that is Quinn’s problem, then 2B may well be a bridge to far for him, as it was for Asche, who has ample arm strength.

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      2. I agree , I think the injury and possible regression at a new position that frankly he did not look very stellar at might be ticket to the outfield sooner rather than later , and also he might find himself playing on the same team as JP

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         1. I think some of us have been calling for that before the injury.

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   2. True, if healthy they quickly become our #4 (Quinn) and #5 (Joseph) prospects and the top 10 looks a lot more solid. Then the only big knock on the farm ranking is Morgan (who I really believe is not coming back to top prospect status) and Watson (who knows?).

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      1. While I am quite optimistic that my earlier negativity about Quinn may have been wrong, it’s just really hard for me to get excited about Joseph. How many concussions now?

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8. Also its good to hear Quinn should be back by June/July is pretty good news, if his speed is back his prospect status will return.

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9. The one thing that has really surprised me – I mean a lot – is how down folks are on Zach Green. You don’t find that power and plate discipline in a third base prospect every day, so hopefully, he proves the doubters wrong. I mean, the guy has serious power.

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   1. Average bat speed, long swing, can’t handle off speed pitches, still a rough defender at 3B, power is big but there isn’t any projection beyond this year’s display. The hit tool is going to be limited and it is hard to be excited about that

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      1. You’re just a Debbie Downer, Matt, aren’t ya.

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      2. Thanks, Matt. Yes, I know, I recall reading similar reviews. And you may be right, but it’s so hard for me to see a powerful hitter like that who has some athleticism, not have any possible projection as a hitter. I understand that type of comment with young pitchers because most folks don’t wake up one day throwing 5 MPH harder. And I also understand seriously limiting projection with big slow guys (Larry Greene, for example). But isn’t possible that it’s a bit too early to draw a line on this guy’s talent ceiling as a hitter? Maybe it’s just wishful thinking on my part. Who knows?

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         1. Bat speed is one of those things that tends to be a bit more inherent to the hitter, you either have it or you don’t. The lack of projection isn’t has much about not thinking he doesn’t have talent, it is more that it showed up now. He has 60+ raw power and he showed 60+ game power, that is awesome because now you aren’t trying to figure out when he will tap into it. Just because a player is young doesn’t mean they are going to get better.

            Overall I see a guy, who if he makes the majors, could hit .250 with 20+ HRs, and good on base skills

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            1. I guess the concern is a low floor, but a 3B with good on base skills who hits 20+ HRs sounds awesome. Awesome enough to be in the top 15 (or better) in this system. Especially if he irons things out in the field.

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               1. It is the low floor, the chance the hit tool causes him to flameout in A ball. I personally think he is in the 10-15 range. I think he is a real prospect, but he isn’t an elite guy

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            2. This actually raises questions about how much a player can grow and improve. Some skills are likely to improve, while other skills/abilities are likely to regress, and a lot in between. I think as a general rule, we expect players, as they age to get slower, bigger and throw with less velocity. As far as bat speed, I just don’t know enough to comment, but I think players do tend to get stronger, get better technique and hitters tend to learn (to varying degrees), how to adjust and hit more difficult pitching.

               I always think the term bat speed is misused somehow. You don’t have 60+ or 70 raw power without good bat speed – the faster the bat, the farther the ball goes. I think this is more a reaction time issue and how long it takes for a player to ramp up his swing than actual bat speed. Players can do things to shorten their swings and load up better – that’s what Dom Brown did a couple of years ago. Barry Bonds got better and better at this as he aged (yes, some of it was steroids, but aside from that he learned to reduce the time it took to initiate his swing to a fraction of a second). That said, the hit tool, to me, can improve, but it’s tough for a hitter to do that. Also, if a player doesn’t learn how to handle breaking pitches within a year or two, he’ll probably never learn to do that (say hello to Anthony Hewitt and the many, many, many Phillie “tool shed” prospects who had great atheletic skills but couldn’t hit a freaking curve ball).

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               1. You can have 60-70 grade power without good bat speed. Power is generated from bat speed, bat plane, bat weight, strength to keep the bat speed through contact (often forearm strength), leverage, and a few other things. When I am talking bat speed I am talking about pure speed through the zone. The faster the bat the later the batter needs to make a decision on his swing. Yes you can quiet all of the other movement and shorten the bat path (which is dangerous because you can take away the power generation).

                  Hitters can improve on many of those things but some things like raw speed through the zone is one that doesn’t tend to improve over time.

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               2. Okay, interesting comments, Matt. I have to say, besides Bonds, the player who I think has the best bat speed is Andrew McCutcheon. His bat is so fast that the difference between him and other players is apparent when you are sitting casually in the stands at a game. His bat is just a blur through the strike zone. I’ve never seen anything quite like it.

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               3. If you want to see elite bat speed go look up videos of Cubs prospect Javier Baez. It is violent and quick.

                  McCutchen’s bat is ridiculous, I still love Utley’s bat speed in his prime, it was lightning quick and direct to the ball.

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               4. Whenever you think of elite bat speed remember to the days of Gary Sheffield doing his thing. Man he had a hell of a swing.

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      3. This is from PLR – scouts who actually saw Green and Cozens play multiple times. They ranked Green #8 in the Penn League. Their report of this bat speed is very different than yours.

         8) Zach Green, 3B, Williamsport (Phillies)

         DOB: 3/7/94

         B/T: R/R

         Acquired: 2012 Amateur Draft, 3rd Round, 125th Overall

         Height/Weight: 6’3″/210 lbs.

         2013 NYPL Stats: 311 PA, .252/.344/.478, 13 HR, 8 SB, 91 SO, 31 BB

         Report from Coller: At 19, Green led the New York Penn League in home runs with 13 and added 20 doubles to boot. The Crosscutters’ third baseman is a tremendous athlete with a body fit for an NFL quarterback. He has one one of the quickest bats in the league and a high finish to his swing that suggests he’ll be able to continue to hit the ball out of the park as he goes forward. He is also an average runner who could nab a base from time to time. The biggest concern is whether Green will be able to cut down on swings and misses. Currently, his approach consists of looking for a fastball inside and clubbing it out. Curveballs and change ups away often get him lunging. He struck out 91 times in 74 games – a rate that will have to be lowered to hit for any type of average elsewhere. It’s possible Green could stick at third base, although his hands are questionable. He may project better at corner outfielder.

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         1. From reports I have read, the real issue is the hit and miss – not the bat speed. I think the hit tool/plate discipline is Green’s biggest issue. I think he will either learn to read the breaking balls, and he has got some time, he is only 19. The power is there. He has shown he can walk. I believe he is someone to get cautiously excited about.

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            1. There really aren’t that many examples of players who struck out at that rate int he low minors and improve substantially. There are examples of players who struck out at that rate and manage to carve out major league careers, albeit with high K totals and low BA. Mark Reynolds/Adam Dunn/Pedro Alverez types. Dunn is the one guy in that group who amounted to much, but he had exceptional plate discipline and power. Chris Davis is a guy you might be tempted to mention … except his K rates in the minors weren’t nearly as bad.

               It seems to me that the best case scenario is that he sticks at third base, where he profiles with an upside of a better than average regular despite the high Ks.

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      4. wow that was most negative 4 sentences I have seen so far on Green.

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10. I am excited to see how this year plays out, unless the Phils sign burnett or make an unexpected trade, then I will be more interested in the minor league box scores this year.

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11. If we are hypothetically in the playoff race come July, who are some of the prospects that might be untouchable and who are some that are more likely to be moved (either due to value being high/low, their proximity to the majors and taking into account the players we would have in front of them as their position. I would think a 3B would be a more likely trade piece for us rather than a SP… but are there specific names that are more tradable than other?

    Also, let’s say we are in it near the deadline… what positions do you guys believe we would try to upgrade? I’m not sure if there are too many hitters on our current team that we could necessarily upgrade (either due to their performance or the contracts we are tied into) and it would seem like a pitcher would be a more likely trade target.

    Yes I am getting way ahead of myself for something that will likely not need to be considered, but its still the offseason and why not?

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    1. I can’t think of any minor leaguer whom I would trade, who would have significant trade value. I wouldn’t part with Franco/Crawford/Biddle and most of the other top prospects are injured or way low in the minors. Guy’s who may have some flash whom I’d trade include Altherr, Buchanon, the guys we see as second and third among Joseph/Valle/Rupp, Dugan, Sev. I’m not going to pretend that these guys have great value, but they do have proximity and exclude our best.

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    2. I would certainly hope that the team would have the sense not to make a “win now” trade even in the unlikely chance that they are in contention at the trade deadline.

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       1. That’s a huge concern. If the Phillies are in contention for a wild card spot, history dictates that Ruben Amaro will use valuable prospects to overpay for an older player. I hope it won’t happen, but his trade history tells us this is a virtual certainty. I know . . . ugh.

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          1. Managerial circumstances are changed, however. As a first time manager, Sandberg won’t be in a position to lobby through the media for what he ‘needs’. I doubt the original Pence deal gets done with a rookie manager.

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             1. And Juan Samuel does not get run-over at third base by a runaway Pence.

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12. KLaw ranks the Phillies farm at 14.
    I am wondering if he is in on heading up the analytical department for Ruben as a FTE, with Freedman.
    Just wondering.

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