Mr. Sandberg here. Has star potential. and is athletic enough to make the changes necessary. Isn’t going to stick in CF but the bat will still play in RF
I have a feeling today is Sandberg’s day, about a week too late in my opinion, but we’ll see. Every year, there are a few young guys that we overvalue based on their predraft reports–eg, Tyler Greene–but that said, the scouting reports on Sandberg are particularly good. I saw that one draft specialist guy that Matt linked ranked him #5 in the system, which I think is wayyyyyy optimistic (and also, the same guy seemed not to be aware that Quinn was pretty seriously injured) but anyway, I feel like a lot of people thought Sandberg was a first round talent who slipped to us because of his SEC football scholarship. I’m very excited about him.
Is he going to start throwing with his other arm? Major shoulder injury to a SP prospect is pretty much a death knell. He shouldn’t even be listed here until he starts pitching again.
I didn’t mean to come off harsh or anything but with that sort of injury, its just impossible for me to rate him right now. If it had been something like TJ surgery, I’d feel completely comfortable putting him much higher.
Morgan and Watson this high are unrealistic to me. This is shoulder surgery we’re talking about. There’s no “good” shoulder surgery, IMO. They’re all either “scary” or “devastating”. The closest you come to “good” shoulder surgery is the one you had five years ago and somehow haven’t had trouble with ever since.
In a world where we’re asking ourselves to be realistic about everything we evaluate, injuries can not be overlooked, and I think to rank Morgan or Watson this high is making an assumption based on nothing more than the hope that the player returns in the shape they were in before. But let’s not forget, the way they were pitching before is often partly to blame for their shoulder issues. Not saying either guy was overthrowing, or had terrible mechanics, or a bad arm slot, (though the Phils did try to correct Watson’s with electric shock something or other he posted on Twitter which was…odd), but looking at an elbow and saying Tommy John should fix it is becoming more and more common, while advances in fixing shoulders just have not been as dramatic. I have Yoel Mecias ahead of both guys for just that reason.
Anyway, I voted for Encarnacion again, making my prior theory about evaluating based or realism a little bit absurd. I’m an enigma.
Well, those guys are pretty much all that’s left: guys who would have gone higher but are hurt and guys who are really far away. Which group is more uncertain? Tough to say, but I can’t justify putting a guy with a shoulder surgery under his belt this high.
Elbow surgery is another matter, which is why I considered Mecias and voted for Knapp.
There are variations on the surgery though our info is obviously pretty sketchy with any bad news suppressed. The Morgan surgery seems much more serious than Watson and he probably gets downgraded more because of that. This point in the list is not a bad place for Watson assuming the surgery really was to clean things up and not too serious. I have Knapp here because it is long overdue for him, but I’d probably go Knapp, Sandberg, Watson with what is left.
I’m with you. Until I see those guys healthy and throwing hard, I can’t have them anywhere above 20 or so. I’m even concerned about Pettibone, although we are told that was just tiredness and a strain and no structural damage. Some guys do recover, including Curt Schilling, but I think the majority of guys who start experiencing shoulder problems are soon out of baseball or never recover close to the same stuff.
I went with Sandberg. It was between him, Knapp, and Encarnacion. I really think all 3 of these guys could be top 15. I’m really downgrading the injured, with apparently Knapp the one I’m most willing to cut a break, since he isn’t a pitcher. I’d have the injured Quinn top 15, but not nearly as high as he placed, but I am really put off by shoulder injuries.
As others make ritual sacrifices to BA and vote for Sandberg, who has not shown the ability to hit a thrown baseball, I will vote again for Shane Watson, whom I know will be pitching this season..
What’s more superstitious, believing that an athlete many scouts ranked as as first round talent will overcome his SSS struggles in rookie ball, or believing that an athlete will come back fully from a major injury that is not easily addressed through surgery? Also, I’d like to point out that it’s not like Watson was burning up the minors before the injury. His standing is at least as much of a product of pre-draft scouting and projection as Sandberg’s, but he’s struggled for much longer.
I wouldn’t say Watson was struggling. The Phillies limited the best parts of his repertoire so he could work on specific things, and he’d given up only 2 ER in his last four starts before he was shut down. I was high on him going into last year and I was actually pretty encouraged by what he was able to do given the restraints the team placed on him.
And in spite of all that, I can’t see voting for him this high. Shoulder injuries really scare me, so as much as I really want to believe that Watson will come back strong and establish himself as a guy with top-of-the-rotation upside, other guys seem like better bets. I haven’t voted for Sandberg yet but I will before I vote for Watson.
With all due respect, there is no way that you can know that Watson will be pitching this season. He hasn’t even started his baseball rehab yet. Remember when Utley was going to be ready to go at the start of ST, then by the end of ST, then missed months. Remember when Howard was going to be ready? Remember how Savery’s minor shoulder surgery was nothing to worry about? Remember the full recovery expected (twice) for Mathieson. You just don’t know until he returns. Nobody ever says ‘gee the surgery went really badly’, or ‘Shane just isn’t making progress on his recovery’. It’s all optimism until facts belie the rosy glow.
Phuture Phillies 
Went with Morgan. Huge question mark on health, but the talent is there.
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Mr. Sandberg here. Has star potential. and is athletic enough to make the changes necessary. Isn’t going to stick in CF but the bat will still play in RF
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Sandberg here. Who else is just itching for ST to start to get more info on the kids?
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Was between Sandberg and Pullin here.
Decided to get with Sandberg. Scouts seem to love him, and the BB and K rates are good. That’s the main thing I look at for someone in rookie ball.
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I have a feeling today is Sandberg’s day, about a week too late in my opinion, but we’ll see. Every year, there are a few young guys that we overvalue based on their predraft reports–eg, Tyler Greene–but that said, the scouting reports on Sandberg are particularly good. I saw that one draft specialist guy that Matt linked ranked him #5 in the system, which I think is wayyyyyy optimistic (and also, the same guy seemed not to be aware that Quinn was pretty seriously injured) but anyway, I feel like a lot of people thought Sandberg was a first round talent who slipped to us because of his SEC football scholarship. I’m very excited about him.
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Watson is falling too far.
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That’s who I voted for today. I still believe he can become a #2/3
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Is he going to start throwing with his other arm? Major shoulder injury to a SP prospect is pretty much a death knell. He shouldn’t even be listed here until he starts pitching again.
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Jeez guess the phillies should just cut him then. Guess I can’t have my own opinion
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Alec……IMHO, no.
Just a joke!
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I didn’t mean to come off harsh or anything but with that sort of injury, its just impossible for me to rate him right now. If it had been something like TJ surgery, I’d feel completely comfortable putting him much higher.
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Morgan and Watson this high are unrealistic to me. This is shoulder surgery we’re talking about. There’s no “good” shoulder surgery, IMO. They’re all either “scary” or “devastating”. The closest you come to “good” shoulder surgery is the one you had five years ago and somehow haven’t had trouble with ever since.
In a world where we’re asking ourselves to be realistic about everything we evaluate, injuries can not be overlooked, and I think to rank Morgan or Watson this high is making an assumption based on nothing more than the hope that the player returns in the shape they were in before. But let’s not forget, the way they were pitching before is often partly to blame for their shoulder issues. Not saying either guy was overthrowing, or had terrible mechanics, or a bad arm slot, (though the Phils did try to correct Watson’s with electric shock something or other he posted on Twitter which was…odd), but looking at an elbow and saying Tommy John should fix it is becoming more and more common, while advances in fixing shoulders just have not been as dramatic. I have Yoel Mecias ahead of both guys for just that reason.
Anyway, I voted for Encarnacion again, making my prior theory about evaluating based or realism a little bit absurd. I’m an enigma.
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Well, those guys are pretty much all that’s left: guys who would have gone higher but are hurt and guys who are really far away. Which group is more uncertain? Tough to say, but I can’t justify putting a guy with a shoulder surgery under his belt this high.
Elbow surgery is another matter, which is why I considered Mecias and voted for Knapp.
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There are variations on the surgery though our info is obviously pretty sketchy with any bad news suppressed. The Morgan surgery seems much more serious than Watson and he probably gets downgraded more because of that. This point in the list is not a bad place for Watson assuming the surgery really was to clean things up and not too serious. I have Knapp here because it is long overdue for him, but I’d probably go Knapp, Sandberg, Watson with what is left.
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I’m with you. Until I see those guys healthy and throwing hard, I can’t have them anywhere above 20 or so. I’m even concerned about Pettibone, although we are told that was just tiredness and a strain and no structural damage. Some guys do recover, including Curt Schilling, but I think the majority of guys who start experiencing shoulder problems are soon out of baseball or never recover close to the same stuff.
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I went with Sandberg. It was between him, Knapp, and Encarnacion. I really think all 3 of these guys could be top 15. I’m really downgrading the injured, with apparently Knapp the one I’m most willing to cut a break, since he isn’t a pitcher. I’d have the injured Quinn top 15, but not nearly as high as he placed, but I am really put off by shoulder injuries.
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As others make ritual sacrifices to BA and vote for Sandberg, who has not shown the ability to hit a thrown baseball, I will vote again for Shane Watson, whom I know will be pitching this season..
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What’s more superstitious, believing that an athlete many scouts ranked as as first round talent will overcome his SSS struggles in rookie ball, or believing that an athlete will come back fully from a major injury that is not easily addressed through surgery? Also, I’d like to point out that it’s not like Watson was burning up the minors before the injury. His standing is at least as much of a product of pre-draft scouting and projection as Sandberg’s, but he’s struggled for much longer.
I see him more in the 20-25 range.
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I wouldn’t say Watson was struggling. The Phillies limited the best parts of his repertoire so he could work on specific things, and he’d given up only 2 ER in his last four starts before he was shut down. I was high on him going into last year and I was actually pretty encouraged by what he was able to do given the restraints the team placed on him.
And in spite of all that, I can’t see voting for him this high. Shoulder injuries really scare me, so as much as I really want to believe that Watson will come back strong and establish himself as a guy with top-of-the-rotation upside, other guys seem like better bets. I haven’t voted for Sandberg yet but I will before I vote for Watson.
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With all due respect, there is no way that you can know that Watson will be pitching this season. He hasn’t even started his baseball rehab yet. Remember when Utley was going to be ready to go at the start of ST, then by the end of ST, then missed months. Remember when Howard was going to be ready? Remember how Savery’s minor shoulder surgery was nothing to worry about? Remember the full recovery expected (twice) for Mathieson. You just don’t know until he returns. Nobody ever says ‘gee the surgery went really badly’, or ‘Shane just isn’t making progress on his recovery’. It’s all optimism until facts belie the rosy glow.
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