General Discussion – Week of 1-27-2014

Weekly Discussion

Hey, it’s Wednesday. I forgot to post this all week so far. Blame my employer for wanting me to, you know, work for the hours they pay me to work. Pfft.

Discuss.

71 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 1-27-2014”

      1. thanks, then they should go after him. would be somewhat respectable for next year without mortgaging the future

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        1. I posted awhile ago that I thought the Phillies would have an outside chance to make the playoffs if they could sign Burnett, so I am sure in favor of doing so!!!

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  2. Signing Burnett was always in the back of my mind as a possibility since I expected him to agree to play another year. I hate to say it but its just too much money ($15M) to walk away from. I see the Orioles and Phils as the two most likely destinations, and possibly the Nats if they have money left. Signing him would change my opinion of the off season… and of their chances to be a decent team this year.

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    2. “But I only want to pitch for one year,” A.J. said.

      “Nah!,” Rube interjected. “Two is way better, and it pays a ton more. And besides, this cool vesting option they taught me how to use is based on you getting to 150 innings in 2015.”

      “But really,” A.J. said, “I almost retired this Winter. I’m not playing for more than one more year.”

      Rube sat in silence for what seemed like an eternity.

      “Let me try to explain the vesting option again.”

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      2. Ruben : “So AJ when i stomp on your foot and ask if you want a 2 yr deal you say yes.”

        AJ to Halladay: “I think he is talking to you”

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  4. Lee, Hamels, Burnett as the top 3
    Then probably Kendrick and Hernandez… with some good competition from Pettibone and MAG.

    Signing Burnett would do wonders for our rotation and we could possibly afford him since his signing would make it much easier to trade Kendrick

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    1. I may be just continuing my role as the forum contrarian, but I see little reason to expect Hernandez to be better than Pettibone and MAG, if MAG is able to pitch. Hernandez put up a 4.89 ERA last season and that’s his best year since 2010. Yes he was hurt, but that’s as much a bad prognosticator going forward as a positive one.

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      1. I completely agree I think #3-5 is up for grabs right now, even though I assume Kendrick will be taking one of those spots. If somehow we got Burnett and our rotation was Lee, Hamels, Burnett at the top 3 and the rest of the guys fighting for #4 and #5 we should be pretty good. That’d be 4 players (Kendrick, Hernandez, Pettibone, MAG) fighting for 2 spots so whoever emerges should be competent MLB 4/5 pitchers. On top of that, it would allow us to finally have some depth and still set up for MAG to work his way in by mid season.

        Worst case scenario I think it would at least give us some chips to trade at the deadline since it would make Kendrick and/or Hernandez expendable in July or sooner.

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  5. Signing Burnett could also make Kendrick expendable in a trade in the event that Gonzalez and Pettibone both shine during spring training.

    I see absolutely no downside to signing him to a 1 year contract if that’s what he’s looking for and I can’t see the Orioles giving him the kind of money he wants given how their off season has gone.

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  6. I am putting the cart before the horse a little, but with the Watson and Morgan health issues and concerns, I can actually see the Phillies drafting pitchers on the first three rounds in the Rule 4 this June, with a college pitcher being their first choice with the 7th pick. After Biddle there is no foreseeable starting pitcher in the system who is projected ETA MLB in the next 4/5 years if Watson and Morgan do not come around.

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    2. No, no, no! You do not draft based on need, especially with a pick that high. Astros took Corea over Buxton (jury is out over this one). Mariners did it two years ago with Hultzen. Hoping he would fly through the system… Where is he now? The DL. Royals did it the year before that and selected Christian Colon. He’s in AAA. Why select Taylor Beede who probably will become a number 3 pitcher but skip out on a chance to take Kolek who’s year away but can hit triple digits and has ace potential.

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        1. He seems like the typical Phillies pick, but I really hope they don’t take him. It seems like he’ll have major problem developing the hit tool. I personally want either Alex Jackson, Michael Gettys, or Beede. I know Beede has control problems but it’s obvious that his stuff is electric

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          1. Definitely a risky strategy, I liked it at the time. It isn’t like Correa is a slouch (Top 5 prospect or so in baseball) and at the time he had a very legitimate case for being the first overall pick.

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      3. At the 7th pick, a best available pick and a need pick can be virtually synonymous, as to opposed to picking at 17th or 27th.

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        1. Not necessarily. Say you want a college pitcher and the two or three best are already gone. At that point, the best available might well be a college position player or a HS kid.

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          1. True….but the need I prefaced earlier was for pitching….so go for a HS kid, like pitcher Kozek from Texas when the two or three best collegiate pitchers are gone as you say could possibly happen..

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            1. Fair enough. Still, if the best collegiate OF was on the board and the Phillies thought very highly of him and had him #3 on their draft board, then I think they should take him. I doubt there is such a guy in this draft, but one really can’t predict who will rise or fall in the draft between now and June. As you can tell by my comment, I am not among those who regard the Phillies farm as over-flowing with primo OF talent. They have a lot of interesting OF guys, as they often do, but nobody who has established themselves as close to a can’t miss OF talent, in the sense of a guy we can expect to be a star, especially a star who can play CF.

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      4. I would NEVER select Taylor Beede, he hasn’t even thrown an inning of college ball yet. Nope i’m passing on him

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        1. Of course Tyler Beede, on the other hand, has thrown 172 IP of college ball at Vandy with 171 Ks. Now him, I would consider.

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  7. RAJ commented earlier in the offseason that prices for FA starters were too high, so he signed Roberto Hernandez. Well, if he would just wait, those prices eventually come down. It’s almost Feb and there are 4 solid mid rotation starters (Burnett, Ubaldo, Ervin and Arroyo) who will probably all sign team friendly deals. I would take any of them over Roberto in a heartbeat.

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    1. I hear comments on the radio and read articles that actually are against the idea of signing Burnett or one of the other remaining starters mentioned. I know that this is just irrational backlash resulting from the fact that people do not believe the Phillies will contend this year. In my opinion, if the Phillies have the opportunity 2 sign A decent starter for 1 year they should do it.
      it is their money and they have plenty of it. If a move like that does not jeopardize the future, which it won’t, I say make the team better now. It sure would make the 20 14 season much more enjoyable.

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      1. A downside to consider is his ability to pitch in Philly. His major league stops were in Florida, Toronto, NY and Pittsburgh. He was successful in 3 out of the 4 places. NY was tough on him. It’s hard to play with the Yankees. If you have one bad game, you’re a bum. You have to prove yourself every game. In the other places, you could lose 3 in a row and the fans will say the 4th game is the charm. Imagine the fans in Philly.

        Other than that, I see no downside unless the bidding gets out of hand. If he’s on a short term deal, there’s probably no downside. If nearly everyone has written off the Phillies, Burnett could make them respectable but maybe that’s not what the front office wants. How about another top 10 pick in the draft next year? Maybe 3 years with a top 10 pick will change the long-term fortunes? I’m just sayin’….

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  8. Some unknown team worked out Madsen yesterday and may have an edge in signing him. It might have been the Phils.

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  9. If you’re addicted to baseball and want to kick the habit, there’s nothing better in 2014 than being a Phillies’ fan.

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  10. Burnett is such an obvious choice – even at $14 million for one year or $26 or 27 m for two years, he’s worth the money because he take the rotation to another level. I saw him pitch at CBP last year and marveled how had lost so little velocity over the years (in the game I saw, he was sitting 93-94 and hitting 95 and 96 throughout the game – he was fantastic) and was a much better overall pitcher than he had been. Sometimes there are velocity outliers, like Ryan and Wagner – Burnett is one of these guys. There’s nothing to suggest that, if they got him, he wouldn’t be very good and is a perfect break in the rotation between two lefties. Sure, he could fall off the face of the earth, but I don’t think that’s likely, at least not this year.

    Sometimes the best moves are the most obvious ones – like the Cardinals signing Beltran a few years ago. This moves screams “do it” and, if it keeps the team in contention and attendance high, it could very well be a cost effective move as well.

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    1. I would almost do 2 yrs for $25-26M. I honestly don’t know if Burnett will want more than 1 + a player option. And then today it sounds like the O’s are “all in” on him, whatever that means, so until they try to sign him and then fail him on the physical, we may have to wait.

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    2. I realize that I’m going a bit overboard, but I think adding Burnett puts us in the conversation with the Nats. I’m not saying we’re on their level, talent wise, but position by position we’re in the ballpark.
      Lee, Hamels, Burnett, Kendrick vs Strasburg, Zimmerman, Gio, Fister
      Roberto/Petitbone/Gaudin/MAG vs Detwiler/Taylor Jordan/others
      Howard vs Laroche
      Utley vs Rendon
      Rollins vs Desmond
      Asche vs Zimmerman
      Byrd vs Werth
      Revere vs Span
      Harper vs D Brown
      Ruiz vs Ramos
      We obviously need health but so do they.

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      1. Yeah, to me, looking at it side by side like that just reinforces how much better they are than us. I don’t think we’re in the ballpark.

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        1. Yeah, you can make an argument that the pitching is roughly equal, but the position players – yikes. Two positions arguably a small edge for the Phillies, but otherwise mostly huge advantages to the Nats. They are probably 15 games better. Yikes. The outfield is a particularly huge contrast – maybe the worst outfield in the league versus arguably the best.

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  12. I don’t recall seeing others mention this:

    NEW YORK (AP) – Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Christopher O’Hare has been suspended for the first 50 games of the season for a second positive test for a drug of abuse under baseball’s minor league drug program.

    A 23-year-old left-hander, O’Hare was selected out of Fisher College in the 23rd round of last June’s amateur draft. He was 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA in five innings over five relief appearances for the Gulf Coast League Phillies, Clearwater of the Class A Florida State League and Lakewood of the Class A South-Atlantic League.

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    1. I had to look the guy up. I honestly didn’t remember him. I actually thought he might be one of those minor league free agent signings. So I guess it really doesn’t matter.

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    2. I wouldn’t be surprised if he isn’t simply outright released. He’s a non-prospect org filler guy to begin with. Those types dont get much of a leash.

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  13. I read back in the fall, where Ryne Sandberg said, if Howard’s struggles with LHP continues he will not be adverse to platooning him, I assume with Ruf or Mayberry.
    Then I realized, excluding LHPs faced during inter-league play, there are only a handful of difficult LHP starters in the NL….the best I see in the NL: Clayton Kershaw, Gio Gonzalez, Madison Bumgarner, Mike Minor, Jon Neise and maybe Wade Miley. Not sure Paul Maholm would qualify. But, in any event, it would appear Howard, if healthy will still get 500 plus PAs without any trouble since he will satrt the majority of all the games.
    Will Sandberg pinch-hit for him against the tough LOOGY late in a game is the question that remains to be answered?.

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    1. Platooning doesn’t mean Howard sits against tough left-handed starters. It means he sits aganst all left-handed starters. I would go whole hog and bring in the platoon right-hand batter in games started by Howard, when a lefty reliever is brought into face him in a critical late-game situation. Howard is futile in those situations. Really, to be honest, if I had my druthers, Howard would never again hit against a left-handed pitcher while wearing a Phillies uniform. He’s become that bad against them. Under those rules, Howard likely loses 1/3 of the 1B AB.

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      1. Tough decisions await Sandberg when it comes to Howard and lefthanded pitchers.
        Incidentally, in 2012, 72% of PAs by the Phillies were against righthanded pitchers.

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        1. It shouldn’t be a tough decision. I know it will be, in the sense that platooning him (a) is the kind of move that opens him to criticism if he does it and it doesn’t work, (b) might cause Howard to pout or mouth off to the media; and (c) might be frowned upon by the organization, but on a purely rational basis, OF COURSE he should never hit against any major league left hander again.

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          1. How could it now actually work? Its hard to believe they could find a guy to hit against LHP who wouldn’t be a massive upgrade on Howard given just how terrible Howard has been against LHP in recent years:

            VS LHP
            2011: .224 AVG/.634 OPS
            2012: .173 AVG/.604 OPS
            2013: ..173 AVG/.539 OPS

            It’d be hard to believe that Mayberry or Ruf couldn’t post at least a .750 OPS against LHP if not significantly better than even that (given Mayberry’s career LHP split and Ruf’s minor league splits against LHP0

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            1. I did not realize how awful Howard;s stats are vs LHPs. Again, Sandberg will need to make decisions that Charlie decided to avoid making, except for the occasional obligatory ‘rest’ day for Howard vs certain LHPs.
              Like I mentioned last year, pinch-hitting for your clean-up hitter (rarely if ever done before) late in a close game vs a LOOGY will be the test for Sandberg.

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            2. Because perceptions are everything and the average fan doesn’t think things through. Let’s say Howard, benefiting from the platooning, has a bit of a rebound and his platoon partner “only” hits say .250/.300/.450. As you say, that would be a huge success objectively – but you KNOW the typical fan will say “why are you sitting a guy hitting .290/.360/.550 (a plausible line for Howard hitting only against righties) to play a guy hitting .250/.300/.450.” Except the reaction probably wouldn’t even be THAT coherent.

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            3. Bottom line, I think people underestimate the inertia when it comes to going against “traditional” strategies. Guys like Howard just don’t get platooned even when it is justified. All kinds of excuses are given – sitting down will mess with his timing, etc. (even somewhat plausible though not reason enough not to do it).

              I very much hope that I am wrong.

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            4. There are so many implications that can occur if Sandberg decides to sit Howard against lefties, but more so, if he decides to pinch-hit for Ryan Howard late in a close game. Personally, if I were in Sandberg’s shoes, I would let Howard bat against all pitching up to Memorial Day weekend. Check the results. If it is still lefty poor as it has been for the past 4/5 years, then sit and discuss with him, and tell him time for the platoon and also the possibility of a late game pinch-hitter for him. Not sure how he will handle it, nor the team.

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          2. The season can be lost by Memorial Day. It is insane to spend the money the Phillies have spent into the future on Byrd and Ruiz, because we must remain respectable and try to compete, and then throw away games by allowing Howard to hit against LHP. There is no reason to run another ‘experiment’, Howard has more than proven over the last several years that he is absolutely awful against LHP. So, are we interested in winning more games or massaging Howard’s ego. Given Howard’s legs and age and recent health history, there is no reason to expect him to even remain healthy playing full time at 1B. Howard is replacement level against LHP. He can’t throw to 2B, he’s only a fair glove man, and he can’t run at all. I don’t buy the timing thing at all. If Howard can simply focus on just hitting RHP, I think he is much likelier to get in a groove and stay in a groove. I also wouldn’t let him hit against a knuckleballer of either arm.

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            1. Sandberg has to use some diplomacy and tact.
              What you suggest is what the fans want, though they may be right in this case, it is not normally done that way.
              As a manager, when you listen to the fans, you end up sitting with the fans.

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            2. Neither I nor anybody else suggested that Sandberg not allow Howard to hit against LHP, because that’s what the fans want. Larry suggested that the fans likely prefer to see Howard play every day. It is not a matter of appeasing the fans, it is a matter of using the roster in a manner which will produce the most wins. This is a simple case of painfully clear statistics. Howard was bad against LHP in 2011 and has gotten progressively worse in each succeeding year. Howard’s play against LHP adds negative value. Why do it? It’s like saying ‘let’s just test through Memorial Day whether or not Galvis can hit with enough power to be our cleanup hitter and play 1B.’ You know the answer as the suggestion for the trial leaves your fingertips. Yes, 2014 is a new season, but we have more than enough history to know this isn’t going to work. What do you think the rest of the team thinks as Howard comes up to bat against a lefty in a critical situation which likely will decide the outcome of the game? Certainly not confidence. Perhaps a realization that they are on the Nostalgia Express and everyone is just merrily going through the motions.

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            3. atown1……’.What do you think the rest of the team thinks as Howard comes up to bat against a lefty in a critical situation which likely will decide the outcome of the game?’…if you ask me…they would rather him hit…they are players and believe in Howard, because they want the same for themselves if they were in that situation. That is what the players are like. But Sandberg is the guy that needs to be convinced.
              I think Sandberg will give Howard enough rope vs lefties , so to speak, to justify a decision he will make, and hopefully that is let Ruf hit vs a lefty.

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        1. A platoon makes total sense. If Charlie platoons last year Howard probably doesn’t hurt his knee and it keeps another player sharp.

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          1. Everyone, just a quick note on Howard.

            In my view, Howard has been hurt in some way since around 2010. His knee was hurt last year in spring training and it just got worse.

            I think there’s a real chance that Howard has a serious bounce back year as he comes in fully healed and in the best shape he’s probably ever been in as a major leaguer. If he bounces back, he’s likely to improve against lefties. If he doesn’t bounce back to at least a significant degree, his career is likely all but over.

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            1. Agree catch….for the most part Sandberg , IMO, will give Howard the benfit of the doubt vs lefties…initially for awhile. The usual off-season reports say he is in great shape and swinging the bat well at the Clearwater complex…heard that stuff before….will see.
              But like you said, if he is actually improved, and bounces back..great. If not, we are stuck with him for 3 years more…and will see if Sandberg decides to make the change.

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            2. In 2010 and 2011, I was making excuses for Howard, too, saying that, if it weren’t for injury, he would have performed like 2006-2009. As those lower-extremity injuries persisted, however, I came to realize that Howard had become a player with a bad set of wheels whose productivity was limited. I wish it were otherwise, but, IMO, that’s the way it is.

              Nevertheless, if he bats only against righties, as allentown recommends, Howard remains an offensive force, but only for 110-115 games or 500 PAs.

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            3. In 2010 and 2011, I was making excuses for Howard, too, saying that, if it weren’t for injury, he would have performed like 2006-2009. As those lower-extremity injuries persisted, however, I came to realize that Howard had become a player with a bad set of wheels whose productivity was limited. I wish it were otherwise, but, IMO, that’s the way it is.

              Nevertheless, if he bats only against righties, as allentown recommends, Howard remains an offensive force, but only for 110-115 games or 500 PAs.

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            4. Anything is possible, but that seems contrary to the factual trend of Howard’s decline. Howard peaked way back in 2006 and has been on a fairly smooth downtrend since then. Starting from his 1.084 OPS in 2006, we have .976, .882, .931, .858, .834, .713, .784. His numbers seem to have taken a random, unduly severe drop in 2007 and 2012, but the trend is very clear. Even for 2013, where he raised his overall OPS by .070, his OPS against LHP continued to decline. As I look at this trend, injury certainly seems to have caused the bad 2012, but his 2013 numbers are right in line with the trend. You say that 2010 was his last healthy year, but he had one of his largest OPS declines that season. The decline of Howard is not that difficult to explain, and injury is a small part of it. It began with the shift and pitchers focusing more on getting him out with the outside bendy stuff. LHP have found it especially easy to victimize him. The pitchers adjusted to the slugging Howard of his early years and he was either unwilling or unable to make a counter adjustment. He tries to pull way too many pitches, is an almost complete guess hitter, and never learned to recognize and lay off the low and away breaking ball. These are issues of missing pitch recognition skills or stubbornness and declining bat speed more than issues of bad wheels. As some others have commented, after three seasons of bad wheels, it’s hard to expect good wheels on the 3-year older Howard. Howard never had the pure athleticism of some of the fairly recent sluggers (Mays, Aaron, Schmidt) who maintained effectiveness into mid-thirties. A lot of the more Howard-like bodies who remained sluggers at his age were PED-assisted. We really don’t have a lot of record of success for drug-free, Howard-like bodies in their mid 30s. Ryan is 34 this season. That’s a tough age for a guy like him.

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  14. for what is it worth, David Schoenfield has an article on ESPN where he ranks the teams. He has the mightly Phillies as the 29th best team in baseball, and is predicting a 66-96 record.

    That seems a bit harsh to me.

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    1. It is harsh, but not by a super amount as the roster currently stands. I’d say about 23rd best and 75 wins.

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    2. The glass is half-full….think of the draft pick we get in 2015!
      Seventh this year and maybe higher in 2015.

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  15. This may have been posted before but I couldn’t find it. Any idea when the minor league reporting dates are? Will be down first week of March and was hoping all the minor leaguers are in by then.

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