Not nearly enough has been mentioned about the season Deivi Grullon had. His season in GCL was as good as Tocci’s, the year before. 17 year old defensive catchers, who can hit, are rare. I expect to be voting for him for a while but… #12 Deivi Grullon
Grullon 13 for me, and Pujols is not far behind Grullon in my mind.
I think Grullon will be the guy behind the plate, barring unforseen injuries or mishaps, for the Phillies in 2018.
Encarnacion got a million dollars. And was in the top 5 int prospects. And from the looks of it. He won’t make our top 20. This must be the best farm system in baseball
There was a lot of mixed opinion on Encarnacion, not everyone had him in the Top 5. Pujols and Grullon are still on the board, both were in the Top 20 international prospects a year ago, both also now have a year of pro ball under their belts. Grullon showed good defensive tools and a decent feel for hit. Pujol’s low overall line is driven a bit by a .245 BABIP, but he tied for the GCL lead in HRs at age 17. There are plenty of wart to both of their games and Encarnacion may rank ahead of them for many people, but it isn’t like he is way above everyone else.
We are also on #12 today, pretty good chance he sneaks into the Top 20
Lots of guys got as much money than that much or close to it, including Hewitt, Gueller, and Collier, who have yet to be seriously considered.. Encarnacion is very hard to rank, because he hasn’t played and is likely to be limited to 1B, as are many of our best power bats. I know, I know… MAG made the list and he also has no stats and may not even be physically healthy enough to pitch off the mound at this point in time. It’s really hard to deal with guys who have never played and lack even HS stats to look at.
This is where I disagree. All of the guys with meaningful stats left on this list have already demonstrated warts that will in all likelihood mean they don’t have a MLB future. With regard to Green, he clearly has good power, but the k-rate, combined with scouting reports of a slider-speed bat are big red flags.
I GUARANTEE you, if another organization had the pick of the rest of our prospects, they would take one of the newbies. I could possibly see Grullon because he did show with the stick a bit, but I would bet Encarnacion would be the first choice. I know “Who would another org take” vs. “who is the best prospect” are different questions, but I actually think they are pretty good proxies, at least in how I define prospects.
So here is the question – do you think Zach Green has enough hit tool to keep his power going into the upper levels and into the majors? I waver on this point, and I have since last year’s list, when I kept him out of my Top 30. Matt’s spotlight piece on Green last year says this:
“Green’s ability to make contact is the biggest outstanding question about him. The swing has gotten shorter since the GCL, but it has a tendency to lengthen at times. He generates good backspin and loft without selling out for plane. The bat speed is average and there a questions about how it will hold up against plus plus velocity, but it shouldn’t be a fatal flaw. His approach isn’t terrible, but he has big problems with breaking balls. Additionally, he is really streaky at the plate so he will go through stretches where he is more susceptible to breaking pitches. The good news is that he has gotten much better but it is something he will need to improve on to get past the high minors. Given all of the questions it is hard to see the hit tool playing anything more than average.” https://phuturephillies.com/2013/08/20/prospect-spotlight-what-to-do-about-zachary-green/
BA echoed the concern about swinging at too many breaking balls when they ranked him 4th in the NYPL after the season.
Looking at his numbers, obviously the power is very nice, with a .226 ISO in 2013. The K Rate is high at 29.3%, but my primary concern from last year wasn’t necessarily the K rate, which for 2012 was around 24%, but the low walk rate, (4.4%). That concern’s been aleviated to a great extent by a 10% BB rate in 2013, (which BA also mentioned as a positive).
In all, I think it’s fair to get a little excited about Green. His season is the kind we always reference when we look at guys who make it to the bigs and hit right away – a very solid year at an age appropriate level. Had he kept that K rate very close to 2012 levels without sapping his power, I think we’d all be foaming at the mouth.
I picked him here after initially having him below Seve Gonzalez.
Personally my biggest problem with Green (and I have him in this range) is that I don’t think he has a high ceiling. It is a profile with a lot of holes in it, and I don’t think they are “fixable” holes. This isn’t to say he won’t work hard and get better, but he doesn’t have bat speed, which isn’t something that magically shows up, and to alter the swing is going to cost him some power. There is always going to be a lot of swing and miss, as well as some struggle with same handed breaking balls. If you are looking at ceiling it is somewhere in the above average regular, and if you squint hard enough it is a RH Pedro Alvarez (which is a downgrade because of platoon splits).
Not to say he isn’t valuable, I just think he actualized talent quicker than his contemporaries, but that doesn’t mean he has a lot of room to keep growing on that.
This is a legitimate concern, but I do think that we can expect/hope that his approach and pitch recognition improve. A lot of young power hitters struggle with breaking balls, and it’s a good sign that he still managed to put up a very good hitting line.
A related concern to his strikeouts is that he actually had a very high IFB% last year. He had a .370 BABIP on non-pop ups! When you factor in his strkeouts, that’s a lot of ABs where he didn’t give himself a chance to get on base. This indicates greater risk of flame out, but I would argue higher ceiling as well. If he can learn to be more selective at the plate, he could boost his average quite a bit.
No real point in drawing comparisons to stats of players with different tool sets. Middlebrooks was considered to have plus bat speed and be a plus defender. Green has average bat speed and while has the athleticism to be a plus defender seems to need a lot of work in that department.
he doesn’t throw hard, no big upside , very similar to Julio Rodriquez / just fizzles out when you get to AA Drew Anderson has way more upside and better stuff
I don’t understand how Hoby Milner is not on the ballot. I have him 3rd behind Rupp and Green, and ahead of all of the other pitchers remaining, except arguably Seve Gonzalez and Ken Giles. Milner is a left handed starter coming off a 143 inning season that at least one blogger called the best in the organization (Gonzalez had just 103 IP). I view Milner as the likely #1 starter in AA Reading this season. Mecias is coming off TJ surgery. Anderson has yet to be tested in full-season ball. Giles is an injury risk, needs to.work on his control, and is only a reliever.
Milner is a slight pitcher who lacks an overpowering pitch. He has good control and a decent set of pitches, but is more polish than stuff. Even with a good year he only struck out 6.8 per 9 and had an ERA of 3.83. He was dominant against LHBs (5.67 K/BB) but struggled against RHBs (2.24 K/BB). It is a classic relief profile.
Also for fun here are is first half and second half splits:
First Half – 76.2 IP 4.11 ERA 7 HRs 18 BBs 72 Ks
Second Half – 66.2 IP 3.51 ERA 4 HRs 21 BBs 36 Ks
Just look at the walk and strikeout numbers in the second half, that is really bad.
Thanks. The second half splits don’t look too bad., except for the Ks. ERA down, HR down, Yes, BB are up slightly but still under 3/9IP. He might have fatigued. I worry that he increased his IP by 75, which is too much in one season. But I understand the problems control pitchers without an overpowering pitch have. His change-up should give him hope in the future versus righties.
Phuture Phillies 
Mr. Green here, although it was a tough choice , quite a few interesting prospects around, Giles I think is next though
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I agree. Time for Green. After this pick, I’ll have to do some thinking on next one. There’s about 4 or 5 guys I’ll prob be debating.
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I went with Joseph again. I know the concussion syndrome is a problem, but I won’t ignore the talent.
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With Cozens in, I can vote Green.
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Ditto atown.
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Yup, Cozens and Green are a package deal. Let’s hope they play together for years and years as they work their way up to Philly in 4 years.
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Not nearly enough has been mentioned about the season Deivi Grullon had. His season in GCL was as good as Tocci’s, the year before. 17 year old defensive catchers, who can hit, are rare. I expect to be voting for him for a while but… #12 Deivi Grullon
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I like Grullon too. He’s in my next 4 (Pullin, Joseph, Gonzalez, Grullon), but I don’t know the order among them.
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Grullon 13 for me, and Pujols is not far behind Grullon in my mind.
I think Grullon will be the guy behind the plate, barring unforseen injuries or mishaps, for the Phillies in 2018.
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Zach Green.
Best offensive year in low A by a player under 22, and he plays an elite defensive position.
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Side note…is RHP Kevin Munson considered a prospect, though his age is 25?
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I have him on my list to consider. Fits the BA standard.
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He counts, as a reliever who didn’t always dominate, I expect him to be in discussions much later on this list.
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Encarnacion got a million dollars. And was in the top 5 int prospects. And from the looks of it. He won’t make our top 20. This must be the best farm system in baseball
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There was a lot of mixed opinion on Encarnacion, not everyone had him in the Top 5. Pujols and Grullon are still on the board, both were in the Top 20 international prospects a year ago, both also now have a year of pro ball under their belts. Grullon showed good defensive tools and a decent feel for hit. Pujol’s low overall line is driven a bit by a .245 BABIP, but he tied for the GCL lead in HRs at age 17. There are plenty of wart to both of their games and Encarnacion may rank ahead of them for many people, but it isn’t like he is way above everyone else.
We are also on #12 today, pretty good chance he sneaks into the Top 20
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I’d put our 8-20 up against most other teams’. The problem is our 2-7.
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Lots of guys got as much money than that much or close to it, including Hewitt, Gueller, and Collier, who have yet to be seriously considered.. Encarnacion is very hard to rank, because he hasn’t played and is likely to be limited to 1B, as are many of our best power bats. I know, I know… MAG made the list and he also has no stats and may not even be physically healthy enough to pitch off the mound at this point in time. It’s really hard to deal with guys who have never played and lack even HS stats to look at.
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This is where I disagree. All of the guys with meaningful stats left on this list have already demonstrated warts that will in all likelihood mean they don’t have a MLB future. With regard to Green, he clearly has good power, but the k-rate, combined with scouting reports of a slider-speed bat are big red flags.
I GUARANTEE you, if another organization had the pick of the rest of our prospects, they would take one of the newbies. I could possibly see Grullon because he did show with the stick a bit, but I would bet Encarnacion would be the first choice. I know “Who would another org take” vs. “who is the best prospect” are different questions, but I actually think they are pretty good proxies, at least in how I define prospects.
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Who would another team want in a trade, is a good way to value/rank prospects.
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So here is the question – do you think Zach Green has enough hit tool to keep his power going into the upper levels and into the majors? I waver on this point, and I have since last year’s list, when I kept him out of my Top 30. Matt’s spotlight piece on Green last year says this:
“Green’s ability to make contact is the biggest outstanding question about him. The swing has gotten shorter since the GCL, but it has a tendency to lengthen at times. He generates good backspin and loft without selling out for plane. The bat speed is average and there a questions about how it will hold up against plus plus velocity, but it shouldn’t be a fatal flaw. His approach isn’t terrible, but he has big problems with breaking balls. Additionally, he is really streaky at the plate so he will go through stretches where he is more susceptible to breaking pitches. The good news is that he has gotten much better but it is something he will need to improve on to get past the high minors. Given all of the questions it is hard to see the hit tool playing anything more than average.” https://phuturephillies.com/2013/08/20/prospect-spotlight-what-to-do-about-zachary-green/
BA echoed the concern about swinging at too many breaking balls when they ranked him 4th in the NYPL after the season.
Looking at his numbers, obviously the power is very nice, with a .226 ISO in 2013. The K Rate is high at 29.3%, but my primary concern from last year wasn’t necessarily the K rate, which for 2012 was around 24%, but the low walk rate, (4.4%). That concern’s been aleviated to a great extent by a 10% BB rate in 2013, (which BA also mentioned as a positive).
In all, I think it’s fair to get a little excited about Green. His season is the kind we always reference when we look at guys who make it to the bigs and hit right away – a very solid year at an age appropriate level. Had he kept that K rate very close to 2012 levels without sapping his power, I think we’d all be foaming at the mouth.
I picked him here after initially having him below Seve Gonzalez.
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Personally my biggest problem with Green (and I have him in this range) is that I don’t think he has a high ceiling. It is a profile with a lot of holes in it, and I don’t think they are “fixable” holes. This isn’t to say he won’t work hard and get better, but he doesn’t have bat speed, which isn’t something that magically shows up, and to alter the swing is going to cost him some power. There is always going to be a lot of swing and miss, as well as some struggle with same handed breaking balls. If you are looking at ceiling it is somewhere in the above average regular, and if you squint hard enough it is a RH Pedro Alvarez (which is a downgrade because of platoon splits).
Not to say he isn’t valuable, I just think he actualized talent quicker than his contemporaries, but that doesn’t mean he has a lot of room to keep growing on that.
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This is a legitimate concern, but I do think that we can expect/hope that his approach and pitch recognition improve. A lot of young power hitters struggle with breaking balls, and it’s a good sign that he still managed to put up a very good hitting line.
A related concern to his strikeouts is that he actually had a very high IFB% last year. He had a .370 BABIP on non-pop ups! When you factor in his strkeouts, that’s a lot of ABs where he didn’t give himself a chance to get on base. This indicates greater risk of flame out, but I would argue higher ceiling as well. If he can learn to be more selective at the plate, he could boost his average quite a bit.
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Comp Will Middlebrooks’ first few years with Zach Green.
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No real point in drawing comparisons to stats of players with different tool sets. Middlebrooks was considered to have plus bat speed and be a plus defender. Green has average bat speed and while has the athleticism to be a plus defender seems to need a lot of work in that department.
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good comp !!
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Severino again.
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I agree with Seve. He will actually pitch in the Majors, I believe.
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Yes. Hard to believe the org’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year didn’t crack the Top 10.
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Remember that the year before the winner was Tyler Cloyd and he did even make any Top 30s
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he doesn’t throw hard, no big upside , very similar to Julio Rodriquez / just fizzles out when you get to AA Drew Anderson has way more upside and better stuff
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I don’t understand how Hoby Milner is not on the ballot. I have him 3rd behind Rupp and Green, and ahead of all of the other pitchers remaining, except arguably Seve Gonzalez and Ken Giles. Milner is a left handed starter coming off a 143 inning season that at least one blogger called the best in the organization (Gonzalez had just 103 IP). I view Milner as the likely #1 starter in AA Reading this season. Mecias is coming off TJ surgery. Anderson has yet to be tested in full-season ball. Giles is an injury risk, needs to.work on his control, and is only a reliever.
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Milner is a slight pitcher who lacks an overpowering pitch. He has good control and a decent set of pitches, but is more polish than stuff. Even with a good year he only struck out 6.8 per 9 and had an ERA of 3.83. He was dominant against LHBs (5.67 K/BB) but struggled against RHBs (2.24 K/BB). It is a classic relief profile.
Also for fun here are is first half and second half splits:
First Half – 76.2 IP 4.11 ERA 7 HRs 18 BBs 72 Ks
Second Half – 66.2 IP 3.51 ERA 4 HRs 21 BBs 36 Ks
Just look at the walk and strikeout numbers in the second half, that is really bad.
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Thanks. The second half splits don’t look too bad., except for the Ks. ERA down, HR down, Yes, BB are up slightly but still under 3/9IP. He might have fatigued. I worry that he increased his IP by 75, which is too much in one season. But I understand the problems control pitchers without an overpowering pitch have. His change-up should give him hope in the future versus righties.
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Anderson has tremendous upside, still really young and will be ace of Lakewood staff with Watson out . Time for drew to get some votes
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Hoby Milner has the best change-up in the organization of any pitcher outside of Cole Hamels.
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