So would I, had the vote went your way, but it went my way. Now I can vote Cesar for the first time. I have them both ahead of Martin, Quinn and Altherr.
has to be Zach Green or Cozens here. I’m not a Cesar guy. I think he’s a utility guy and to me that doesn’t warrant top 10 considerations. I’m sticking with Green but would understand a Cozens selection here also.
green or cozens here… no difference to me really. Its too early for the truly young guys like encarnacion, grullon, and sandberg because they don’t have a track record yet. I see them coming soon. I would be starting to think about guys like knapp, joseph, and mecias, but injuries really knock them down the list for me. I tend to be more of an upside voter instead of a proximity voter, so I have cesar and seve down farther on my list.
I voted for Cesar again. The other prospects mentioned all obviously have higher ceilings than Cesar, but they are just so far away at this point. And don’t underestimate Cesar’s ability and propensity to improve – he’s all baseball player. Of course, with any of the younger prospects, they could shoot up the list at any time, much like Mikael Franco did between the middle and end of 2012.
Seeing how this list has 2 guys not in my top 10 I have to go with a guy I have pretty high and that is Ken Giles. I am a stuff guy easily enamored with 100 MPH FB’s and I don’t care if he is a reliever.
As do I but Seve=Jrod, Tcloyd or at best maybe he is Pettibone. No FB=no top 10 for me. We’ve seen this time and time again. These guys come in and get results because they are pretty good and the guys they are facing haven’t seen them before.
Then they get to majors and may even look good for a start or two. Then advance scouting kicks in and blasto they can’t get through a MLB line-up a second time. KK is this guy at times he is pretty darn good but at the end of the season you look up and he is a 5th starter you would like to upgrade if you could.
He sits 89-91, he was sitting 92-94 a bit as a reliever, but he can touch 93 occasionally, but still that is a 50 at best FB from the right handed side
Totally agree with this. However I do see potential for Seve to grow into more velocity if he does put on more weight. He could potentially be able to sit 92-94 as a starter and top 96, IF he can put on 30 pounds, which may be unlikely.
Once you factor in reported lack of movement, it’s probably a 40 fastball. But that’s plenty good enough if he has plus command and secondary pitches. At least he’s not in JRod/Cloyd territory.
What makes you think he is going to add to it. He showed lower velocity as a starter and less as the year went on. He is only going to have add more innings to be a starter. That seems to indicate the velocity is going to trend in the other direction.
Because he was maxing out at 89 at VSL and was able to add to add 5mph of velocity to it. The fact that his velocity went down as the season went on is not surprising, especially moving from reliever to starter. I could see him gaining more stamina to hold that velocity as he matures.
nik… go back and read Mickey Morandini’s assessment of Severino Gonzalez’ FB and velo from last July. Apparently , though he praised all his arsenal and make-up, the FB was the least impressive.
I’m not trying to rain on Seve I have him 13 I just don’t think he is top 10 material. He is just 21 so perhaps he adds velo but history is not on his side to go from 89-91 to 94-95. As with any prospect that I am not high on I hope I am wrong and you are right.
Cesar. In my personal rankings, I held him over Quinn, so it would have been Cesar 9 Quinn 10.
Next week should be very interesting. Some very strong candidates out there. The weight at the top of the list and this next bunch of low level guys is what makes this a stronger list than last year, even with so many career-derailing/threatening injuries. This morning I’m wondering about Tommy Joseph.
He should get some consideration in the next week for his upside – if he can stay concussion free and stay behind the plate, his ceiling is still quite high. Obviously the risk there is also very high, and it’s going to be hard to pin down a good place to rank him. I had him preliminarily at 13, behind Cozens and Seve G, but I really don’t think Joseph’s going to hold up against the arguments for Green/Rupp/Giles/Encarnacion, and maybe even Grullon/Sandberg/Knapp, who I have rounding out the top 20.
Zach Green was tied for the best hitting 19 year old in the NYPL last year. By way of comparison, the average MLB third baseman is a below average hitter.
Good concise pick and description. I went with Cozens, just guessing he will have a better approach than Green but no problem with either of the other guys.
Without deadly speed and limited power, Hernandez is going to be a poor OPS player and likely a poor WAR player. He does seems to posses the most critical tool of all, hit, but without the rest his statistical value will be low. He seems like a guy that a team will call valuable though.
Hmm…beats out Singleton. I wonder if that’d be concensus around multiple sources. I would have to imagine it’s pretty close between those two and Smith.
I went with Cozens again due to him having one of the highest upsides in the system. Interesting seeing Singleton and D’Arnaud both rated #1 at their positions. Still waiting for one of the ex-minor league Phillies to do well in the big leagues. Of course, I wouldn’t mind having one of the still in the system minor league Phillies do well in the majors either.
Sorry, offtrack but: When I see the arbitration numbers being paid to such mediocre talent, its obvious that a team really needs to have a few young, cheap players on its roster to manage the overall budget. To think, $12M only gets you KK and MAG for a year. David Price is only making $2M more…. We REALLY need Biddle to have a great year and take a spot next year.
Not to be Mr. negative all the time – but the track record on talent development over the past 6 to 8 years really makes me start to question the minor league development team.
Who specifically are you speaking of? that’s kind of a broad brush to paint with. Fact is they have a scouting problem right now more so then a development problem. Again specifically the problem seems to be in the north west.
As far as development goes, there does seem to be a problem with the development of pitchers — both injuries and guys not really reaching expectations. I think a lot of the failed position players were poor talent assessment in the draft. I’ll certainly buy that explanation for the Hewitts, Hudsons, Martinezes, Larry Greenes of this world — simply guys who never should have been drafted where they were drafted. Thus far, Gueller looks a waste on the pitching side. The drafting seems a little better the past couple seasons. I’ve been as critical as anyone, some would say ad nauseum, about the blundering of our NW scouts in failing to sign two top 10 picks, but the NW scouting is not the source of our problems, for the simple reason that it’s a long time since they were granted a primo draft pick. The biggest, most damaging, blunders have been guys from other parts of the nation. It’s hard as a fan to pick apart the difference between scouting problems and development staff problems. Gavin Floyd is the biggest development flop I can think of — he was universally acknowledged to be a huge talent and our development staff made him pitch without his best killer pitch, which was never the same when he was allowed to resume its use. On a guy like Gueller — I just don’t know whether or not the talent is there and hasn’t been developed. With Larry Greene, I think there are questions about both the scouting and the lack of being in contact with and guiding prospects during the winter. A team really should not be taken by surprise when its top draft pick shows up in ST impersonating the HIndenberg. I’m convinced that Hewitt, Hudson, Martinez just never had the talent. We’ve had too many injuries. I think Biddle was handled very strangely this season. I think it odd that someone as young as Quinn blows out his Achilles in the off-season. DOn’t we teach proper stretching, warmup, and exercise routines to the kids? There was too much talk this past season of the pitching guidance in Allentown and Philadelphia not being in synch.
I don’t think they were surprised when LG showed up looking like the Hindenburg they were like WTF Larry we paid you a million bucks this is your career, your livelihood take this shizza seriously.
You and I part ways when you try to put it on the coaches. Floyd wasn’t going to be any more than what he was and chances are pretty good the Whitesox only said this is a clean slate for you kid.
I’m not being condescending but have you ever coached? Have you ever been around big league instructors and camps? My point is I have and I have seen hundreds of kids with primo talent that don’t want to listen a lick. They know everything and no one not even an instructor who played big league baseball can teach them anything. (trevor bauer)
So to bring it back around if the scouts are missing the talent not much development can do. If the scouts are missing the coachability factor not much development can be done. Now the latter is harder to determine but still let’s not put to much of it on development.
These coaches and instructors have been around the game a long time I’m sure they know what they are doing.
Longevity and prior major league experience does not equate to ability to be a minor league coach/instructor. I really don’t think you can put this all on the scouting. Perhaps we can agree that the Phillies have a combined minor league budget/philosophy/scouting/drafting problem. In any event, the farm has not been producing enough talent. I think you are wrong about Floyd. He was a mega-talent and did not seem to be uncoachable. He gave up the curve that the Phillies instructors insisted he shelve to work on other pitches. That approach didn’t work. We know the Dancy approach to walks. It seems to be the minor league philosophy for the Phillies. It has not been helpful.
And you never answer the obvious rebuttal to your assertion that the Phillies problem is a scouting problem in the northwest — we haven’t exactly expended a lot of primo picks on guys from the NW. We did get Kendrick from their. If there is indeed a serious scouting problem, which is the cause of the Phillies problems, then it has to be the scouting related to the first rounders, supplemental rounders, and second rounders. These are the guys whom the scouting director and cross checkers have the greatest input on, the guys the organization as a whole thinks the longest and hardest on, because that is where most of your major leaguers should come from in the draft and where you spend half or more of the $ in the draft. As I’ve scanned recent drafts, I’ve been struck by what a high percentage of the major leaguers and top minor leaguers came from later in the draft. Brown, Asche, Ruf, Kendrick, Howard, Pettibone — these guys weren’t exactly the primo round draft picks. Nor were Ruiz, Franco, Galvis, Severino, Hernandez among our highest international bonuses. When the guys you wanted most turn out to be not as good as the guys you weren’t willing to spend real $ on, then you have a serious problem.
DMAR….well stated in that some young players are already pre-coached from the ‘infancy’ and comfortable with what got them there and so are reluctant and uncomfortable to modify or somewhat change their technique or approach.
Thus, you do hear the phrase at times used by managers and coachs, ” he is a very coachable kid”. There is a good reason they say that phrase, for al not kids are coachable.
Sometimes the kid is better sticking to his former approach. Some coaches stubbornly try to pound square and triangular kids into round holes. It even happens at the pro level. A team will pay a ton of money for a FA or give up a lot of talent in a trade, and then expect the guy to remake his game, when he’s already successful. The latter happens a lot more in football than baseball, although I think the Phillies did some square pegging with the Youngs last winter.
I Might be 100% WRONG BUT. I was always led to believe that scouts not only look at talent, but desire, home life, if the kid can be motivated, if he wants to be great. there are a lot of things to consider, but talent is number one, but talent alone isn’t going to get you there without desire to get better, I had spent time years ago with Phillies scouts, just talking at homerun events, and always ask them about how hard it is to scout, and what they look for in a kid.
I can think of lots of guys that looked good initially and tailed off. Its pretty easy to make a list. Was it their talent? Was it their inability to work hard enough? Listen well enough? Was it bad development? Its impossible to know the reason without being on the inside. I have definitely heard comments from insiders that some players are rock heads and don’t listen to the coaches. I won’t dime them out but some are playing now and not doing as well as we all hoped they would. The Phillies know their minor league pitching development has been subpar, they just fired the guy running it. They plan to be tougher with pitchers this year and let them finish rough innings instead of pulling them at max pitch counts and pitch relievers on back to back days, two things not done before. Let’s hope the new approach helps. Whatever happened to Colvin?
What are the opinions of Trevor May and Darin Ruf?
Good scouting, Bad Development?
Good Scouting, Good Development, Just not good enough?
Good Scouting, Bad Development, Still has a chance to start?
I think the Phillies have seemed to go with great athletes who they think can develop into baseball players. This put a lot of pressure on the coaching system. The supposed benefit is that the very few who make it can be superstars.
I still think Hewitt has great tools, and if he could learn to hit he’d be great.
Altherr has the same flaw but nowhere near as damaging.
I think Ruf is a guy who has talent, but not premiere talent other than power, and has basically developed to his full extent. When you apply the test ‘what did even the rational optimists think he could become on draft day?’ I think you have to conclude that he has developed to his full potential, with more power than expected. Career-wise, he has suffered by 1B being blocked. Had he been able to play every day since he had that great September call-up, we might have a higher view of his success.
Hewitt was just a bad pick. BA commented that age of HS players is something that some teams have taken into consideration and reaped the benefits of that approach. Hewitt was a VERY old HS draftee — a year older than most in his class. A year makes a big difference at that age, especially when playing in a weak baseball area. I don’t think Hewitt every had what could honestly be called great tools. He can run, although not with the pre-injury Quinn and he has middling power and a strong if not super accurate arm, but unlike most of the Phillies toolsy guys, he never could play D. He stank as an IF and is adequate at best as an OF. His hit tool is subpar and he has a huge platoon split. Even his speed tool is meh. Other than his repeat year at Lakewood, he has been a poor base stealer.
I keep thinking/hoping that history has/will soon teach the Phillies their lesson on their brand of toolsy OF. You don’t need to spend a first rounder to get the sort of guy that they covet. We spent firsts on Golson and Hewitt, a supplemental on Collier, a first on Larry Greene, a second on Gose and Cozens. Contrast that collection to Brown (20th round), Altherr (9th round), Ruf (20th round), Howard (5th round), a 4th on Bourn, a 5th on Michael Taylor, and 3rds on Zach Green and Hudson. You have to conclude that we did equally well after the second round in finding guys with the speed and power tools. Some of the benefits of the later picks was derived by considering college position players. These college guys were toolsy though — Bourn was one of the fastest guys in his draft and Howard and Ruf were among the top power tool guys in their draft.
I have some questions too, especially regarding the pitching. Last year, every pitcher under Ray Burris’s direction completely sucked – as in went into full throttle reverse sucked. Philippe Aumont was confused by inconsistent directions between the AAA guys and Dubee. Rosenberg was not good in AAA. Martin was so-so. Jake Diekman, who was lights out in AAA in 2012, was terrible in AAA in 2013 and then was promoted to the majors and dramatically improved. What? How does that happen? It can happen for a variety of reasons, but I think it may be because the AAA pitching coach is horrible and the bullpen coach in Philly – Rod Nichols – who used to be Diekman’s pitching coach is excellent. So, yes, I’m concerned about the minor league instruction – especially with pitchers – but I’m thankful that Nichols has been retained.
Mayberry inked at $1.6M. Last two seasons, Mayberry has hit .237 with a .294 OBP, a .687 OPS and 25 home runs in 283 games. He hit .228 with a .290 OBP and .676 OPS with nine home runs in 89 starts in 2013. Among the 76 major league outfielders with at least 350 at-bats last year, Mayberry’s .286 OBP ranked 73rd. Only Atlanta’s B.J. Upton (-1.8) had a lower WAR (Wins Above Replacement) than Mayberry’s -1.1. Mayberry is likely to be Revere’s primary backup.
Really, I’d rather go another year with Mayberry than bring in the sort of guy whom RAJ has brought in the past two off-seasons. I suspect RAJ thinks that Byrd can play CF. If Hernandez makes the team, then he will be Revere’s backup.
A lot will be determined by the 2014 season. We will know whether or not Revere is good enough to be our starting CF going forward. We will have a better read on Hernandez as a CF. We will see whether Gillies does or dies as a Phillies farmhand and whether Altherr establishes himself as a guy who can play CF in Philly in a couple of years. Whether or not we have an in-house CF for the longer intermediate term will depend upon the answers to these questions and whether or not Tocci shows signs of hitting.
Mayberry is not a problem. He will be the 5th OF on a bad team. In other words, when you are thinking whether or not the Phillies can super luck out an be a contender in 2014, what Mayberry does or doesn’t do is pretty much beside the point. He was quite good in 2011 but has done next to nothing since then. That makes him about as good a gamble as any other gamble whom RAJ might sign.
I expect Mayberry OR Ruf will make the team but not both. I believe they’re looking for a left handed bat for the bench for that last spot. Colvin just signed with the Orioles so he’s out. I could see them trading Mayberry for a similar but left handed hitting guy. If the guy they find plays CF, it could effect Mayberry vs Ruf if its not through a trade. If the new guy doesn’t play CF, then Ruf goes and Mayberry stays. Byrd can not play CF. Cesar is still a possibility and I think Gwynn could steal a spot with a strong spring because he offers what they don’t have much of, speed and great OF defense. His bat is weak though and he wouldn’t offer a good pinch hitting option. I expect a trade of Mayberry or Ruf.
Even last year, when he was just plain bad, Mayberry was a pretty fair platoon type player. He’s worth the money if used properly. It would be nice to see him get some at bats against tough lefty starters. He can also pinch hit and take the field at first. He’s fine for what he is.
Well judging by the write -up….he is in BJ Upton’s class.
Nevertheless, I never had any issues with him as long as he was used in a supplementary role.
He may be in Upton’s class, but for one heck of a lot less $. Upton’s role was to be at least a near-star and his contract is commensurate with that. I don’t expect the Phillies reserves to be of star quality, nor for their contracts to approach the value of stars, or even starters. To compare a 5th OF to Upton is really apples and oranges.
You didn’t see it in my intonation and inflection!
Just kidding…again being facetious.
Understand the internet obstacle to ‘hearing’ what and how something is to be understood.
I went with Cozens here. Marginally better K rate than Green and superior power if he can harness it. I’m not so excited about Hernandez, it he is a utility player he’s basically as valuable as the Pete Orrs and Miguel Cairos of the world, and to my mind he’s going to have to prove he’s something more. But I expect him to take this spot–if for no other reason than Green and Cozens are fairly similar players at the same level and are likely to split the vote,
I agree with the poster above that we should start talking about Tommy Joseph soon. We don’t know it he’s going to switch positions and if he can stick at catcher he’s still a decent prospect to me. Lots of interesting arguments ahead, next week should be fun.
Did I read that right? Buchanan is a non-roster invite to the big league camp? Has he ever been in our top 30? He’s a 7th round pick in 2010. At 24 years old, he’s in his prime. His BBs/9 have been consistently 3 or lower in every level. He’s not a big K guy. He’s very unassuming. It’s pretty strange that a guy who gets an invite to major league camp has never been in the top 30.
Buchanan has been a sleeper of mine for years, he doesn’t have any plus pitches, and the changeup is fringy. The profile is AAA depth starter or middle reliever. He is in camp as starting pitching depth, and it would not surprise me if he is the first pitcher called up when there is an injury. It is better raw stuff than Cloyd and the Phillies are running out of other options
I agree with you on Buchannan, he actually looks like a guy who could pitch in the majors. However, I think Pettibone will be the first guy up after MAG wins the last spot and Pettibone goes to LHV.
Having controllable starting pitching depth in the minors is helpful. I just do not expect much of Bunchanan even if he gets the call. But he is a fringe guy worth checking into.
I’d still prefer that Phillies acquire another ‘risk’ starting pitcher so that MAG opens in the bullpen and Pettibone in LHV. Pettibone is callup with MAG moving to starter after the All-Star Break.
I didn’t vote for him in this slot, but I have no problem with with Cesar at #10. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a regular, but I definitely see him as a solid, contributing player..
I agree. Cesar could surprise. He needs just a small improvement in a couple areas to be a starting quality player. Odds are always againt prospects but it would not suprise me..
I just like the possible upside on the less predictable guys.
You’re right, he could very easily end up being a starter for a below-average team, which is what the Phillies look likely to be for the next few years. We’ve been spoiled this last decade. After all, Utley’s predecessor Marlon Anderson had a career OPS of .705 and ended up playing a 12 years. Who knows, Cesar could have that type of career.
Depends on what his defense is really like. He seemed like a guy who always got positive recognition for his defense, but some have called him no better than average. If he ends up an above average defender at 2B, then it’s entirely possible that he could be an asset. His power is never going to be good but he’s still only 23, so it’s not so far fetched to think he could develop some doubles power.
A league average 2B only had a .692 OPS last year.
Phuture Phillies 
Cesar finally gets his dues here
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I would have voted for Dugan in this spot if the vote went my way last round. Cesar again.
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So would I, had the vote went your way, but it went my way. Now I can vote Cesar for the first time. I have them both ahead of Martin, Quinn and Altherr.
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Cesar!
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has to be Zach Green or Cozens here. I’m not a Cesar guy. I think he’s a utility guy and to me that doesn’t warrant top 10 considerations. I’m sticking with Green but would understand a Cozens selection here also.
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Yes green here. Top 10
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green or cozens here… no difference to me really. Its too early for the truly young guys like encarnacion, grullon, and sandberg because they don’t have a track record yet. I see them coming soon. I would be starting to think about guys like knapp, joseph, and mecias, but injuries really knock them down the list for me. I tend to be more of an upside voter instead of a proximity voter, so I have cesar and seve down farther on my list.
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I voted for Cesar again. The other prospects mentioned all obviously have higher ceilings than Cesar, but they are just so far away at this point. And don’t underestimate Cesar’s ability and propensity to improve – he’s all baseball player. Of course, with any of the younger prospects, they could shoot up the list at any time, much like Mikael Franco did between the middle and end of 2012.
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Was a little surprised by the amount Dugan won last poll. I’ll stick with Cozens at 10.
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Cozens should be in the top 10. Too much Tocci and Altherr cool-aid in the mugs around here!
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I agree
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Seeing how this list has 2 guys not in my top 10 I have to go with a guy I have pretty high and that is Ken Giles. I am a stuff guy easily enamored with 100 MPH FB’s and I don’t care if he is a reliever.
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Giles above Altherr and Tocci? I know whose kool-aid you’re drinking
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Still with Seve. I root for every one of the prospects that we have regardless of where I think they should slot. Dugan next.
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As do I but Seve=Jrod, Tcloyd or at best maybe he is Pettibone. No FB=no top 10 for me. We’ve seen this time and time again. These guys come in and get results because they are pretty good and the guys they are facing haven’t seen them before.
Then they get to majors and may even look good for a start or two. Then advance scouting kicks in and blasto they can’t get through a MLB line-up a second time. KK is this guy at times he is pretty darn good but at the end of the season you look up and he is a 5th starter you would like to upgrade if you could.
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He can hit 93-94 on the gun and has just recently acquired that velocity. “No fastball” is just incorrect.
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He sits 89-91, he was sitting 92-94 a bit as a reliever, but he can touch 93 occasionally, but still that is a 50 at best FB from the right handed side
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Totally agree with this. However I do see potential for Seve to grow into more velocity if he does put on more weight. He could potentially be able to sit 92-94 as a starter and top 96, IF he can put on 30 pounds, which may be unlikely.
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Once you factor in reported lack of movement, it’s probably a 40 fastball. But that’s plenty good enough if he has plus command and secondary pitches. At least he’s not in JRod/Cloyd territory.
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Can hit or sit at that mph? C’mon Nik you are better than that. You know the difference.
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You think JRord or Tyler Cloyd could ever hit 94? My point is that its a better fastball than those guys and he’s got a chance to add to it.
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What makes you think he is going to add to it. He showed lower velocity as a starter and less as the year went on. He is only going to have add more innings to be a starter. That seems to indicate the velocity is going to trend in the other direction.
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Because he was maxing out at 89 at VSL and was able to add to add 5mph of velocity to it. The fact that his velocity went down as the season went on is not surprising, especially moving from reliever to starter. I could see him gaining more stamina to hold that velocity as he matures.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-notebook-severino-gonzalez-adds-to-breakout-year/
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I have not seen a single report of him touching 94 as a starter. Throw out the reliever velocity.
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nik… go back and read Mickey Morandini’s assessment of Severino Gonzalez’ FB and velo from last July. Apparently , though he praised all his arsenal and make-up, the FB was the least impressive.
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I’m not trying to rain on Seve I have him 13 I just don’t think he is top 10 material. He is just 21 so perhaps he adds velo but history is not on his side to go from 89-91 to 94-95. As with any prospect that I am not high on I hope I am wrong and you are right.
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Cesar. In my personal rankings, I held him over Quinn, so it would have been Cesar 9 Quinn 10.
Next week should be very interesting. Some very strong candidates out there. The weight at the top of the list and this next bunch of low level guys is what makes this a stronger list than last year, even with so many career-derailing/threatening injuries. This morning I’m wondering about Tommy Joseph.
He should get some consideration in the next week for his upside – if he can stay concussion free and stay behind the plate, his ceiling is still quite high. Obviously the risk there is also very high, and it’s going to be hard to pin down a good place to rank him. I had him preliminarily at 13, behind Cozens and Seve G, but I really don’t think Joseph’s going to hold up against the arguments for Green/Rupp/Giles/Encarnacion, and maybe even Grullon/Sandberg/Knapp, who I have rounding out the top 20.
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I have Knapp at 18, Joseph 21 and Sandberg 24 FWIW. Joseph if not for concussions would be ahead of Knapp IMO.
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I have Sandberg a good bit higher than 24, but that’s about where I think Knapp and Joseph are going to land.
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Zach Green.
Position over Cozens. Ceiling over Hernandez.
Zach Green was tied for the best hitting 19 year old in the NYPL last year. By way of comparison, the average MLB third baseman is a below average hitter.
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Good concise pick and description. I went with Cozens, just guessing he will have a better approach than Green but no problem with either of the other guys.
Without deadly speed and limited power, Hernandez is going to be a poor OPS player and likely a poor WAR player. He does seems to posses the most critical tool of all, hit, but without the rest his statistical value will be low. He seems like a guy that a team will call valuable though.
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Agreed. Green here
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Also, I suggest adding Andrew Pullin to the list soon.
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Interesting Tweet from Callis:
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Hmm…beats out Singleton. I wonder if that’d be concensus around multiple sources. I would have to imagine it’s pretty close between those two and Smith.
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Yeah we know Franco will now be ahead of singleton in all the overall rankings, but its nice to know that moving to 1st base won’t kill his value.
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I went with Cozens again due to him having one of the highest upsides in the system. Interesting seeing Singleton and D’Arnaud both rated #1 at their positions. Still waiting for one of the ex-minor league Phillies to do well in the big leagues. Of course, I wouldn’t mind having one of the still in the system minor league Phillies do well in the majors either.
Sorry, offtrack but: When I see the arbitration numbers being paid to such mediocre talent, its obvious that a team really needs to have a few young, cheap players on its roster to manage the overall budget. To think, $12M only gets you KK and MAG for a year. David Price is only making $2M more…. We REALLY need Biddle to have a great year and take a spot next year.
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Not to be Mr. negative all the time – but the track record on talent development over the past 6 to 8 years really makes me start to question the minor league development team.
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Who specifically are you speaking of? that’s kind of a broad brush to paint with. Fact is they have a scouting problem right now more so then a development problem. Again specifically the problem seems to be in the north west.
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As far as development goes, there does seem to be a problem with the development of pitchers — both injuries and guys not really reaching expectations. I think a lot of the failed position players were poor talent assessment in the draft. I’ll certainly buy that explanation for the Hewitts, Hudsons, Martinezes, Larry Greenes of this world — simply guys who never should have been drafted where they were drafted. Thus far, Gueller looks a waste on the pitching side. The drafting seems a little better the past couple seasons. I’ve been as critical as anyone, some would say ad nauseum, about the blundering of our NW scouts in failing to sign two top 10 picks, but the NW scouting is not the source of our problems, for the simple reason that it’s a long time since they were granted a primo draft pick. The biggest, most damaging, blunders have been guys from other parts of the nation. It’s hard as a fan to pick apart the difference between scouting problems and development staff problems. Gavin Floyd is the biggest development flop I can think of — he was universally acknowledged to be a huge talent and our development staff made him pitch without his best killer pitch, which was never the same when he was allowed to resume its use. On a guy like Gueller — I just don’t know whether or not the talent is there and hasn’t been developed. With Larry Greene, I think there are questions about both the scouting and the lack of being in contact with and guiding prospects during the winter. A team really should not be taken by surprise when its top draft pick shows up in ST impersonating the HIndenberg. I’m convinced that Hewitt, Hudson, Martinez just never had the talent. We’ve had too many injuries. I think Biddle was handled very strangely this season. I think it odd that someone as young as Quinn blows out his Achilles in the off-season. DOn’t we teach proper stretching, warmup, and exercise routines to the kids? There was too much talk this past season of the pitching guidance in Allentown and Philadelphia not being in synch.
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I don’t think they were surprised when LG showed up looking like the Hindenburg they were like WTF Larry we paid you a million bucks this is your career, your livelihood take this shizza seriously.
You and I part ways when you try to put it on the coaches. Floyd wasn’t going to be any more than what he was and chances are pretty good the Whitesox only said this is a clean slate for you kid.
I’m not being condescending but have you ever coached? Have you ever been around big league instructors and camps? My point is I have and I have seen hundreds of kids with primo talent that don’t want to listen a lick. They know everything and no one not even an instructor who played big league baseball can teach them anything. (trevor bauer)
So to bring it back around if the scouts are missing the talent not much development can do. If the scouts are missing the coachability factor not much development can be done. Now the latter is harder to determine but still let’s not put to much of it on development.
These coaches and instructors have been around the game a long time I’m sure they know what they are doing.
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Longevity and prior major league experience does not equate to ability to be a minor league coach/instructor. I really don’t think you can put this all on the scouting. Perhaps we can agree that the Phillies have a combined minor league budget/philosophy/scouting/drafting problem. In any event, the farm has not been producing enough talent. I think you are wrong about Floyd. He was a mega-talent and did not seem to be uncoachable. He gave up the curve that the Phillies instructors insisted he shelve to work on other pitches. That approach didn’t work. We know the Dancy approach to walks. It seems to be the minor league philosophy for the Phillies. It has not been helpful.
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And you never answer the obvious rebuttal to your assertion that the Phillies problem is a scouting problem in the northwest — we haven’t exactly expended a lot of primo picks on guys from the NW. We did get Kendrick from their. If there is indeed a serious scouting problem, which is the cause of the Phillies problems, then it has to be the scouting related to the first rounders, supplemental rounders, and second rounders. These are the guys whom the scouting director and cross checkers have the greatest input on, the guys the organization as a whole thinks the longest and hardest on, because that is where most of your major leaguers should come from in the draft and where you spend half or more of the $ in the draft. As I’ve scanned recent drafts, I’ve been struck by what a high percentage of the major leaguers and top minor leaguers came from later in the draft. Brown, Asche, Ruf, Kendrick, Howard, Pettibone — these guys weren’t exactly the primo round draft picks. Nor were Ruiz, Franco, Galvis, Severino, Hernandez among our highest international bonuses. When the guys you wanted most turn out to be not as good as the guys you weren’t willing to spend real $ on, then you have a serious problem.
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DMAR….well stated in that some young players are already pre-coached from the ‘infancy’ and comfortable with what got them there and so are reluctant and uncomfortable to modify or somewhat change their technique or approach.
Thus, you do hear the phrase at times used by managers and coachs, ” he is a very coachable kid”. There is a good reason they say that phrase, for al not kids are coachable.
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…not all kids….
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Sometimes the kid is better sticking to his former approach. Some coaches stubbornly try to pound square and triangular kids into round holes. It even happens at the pro level. A team will pay a ton of money for a FA or give up a lot of talent in a trade, and then expect the guy to remake his game, when he’s already successful. The latter happens a lot more in football than baseball, although I think the Phillies did some square pegging with the Youngs last winter.
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I Might be 100% WRONG BUT. I was always led to believe that scouts not only look at talent, but desire, home life, if the kid can be motivated, if he wants to be great. there are a lot of things to consider, but talent is number one, but talent alone isn’t going to get you there without desire to get better, I had spent time years ago with Phillies scouts, just talking at homerun events, and always ask them about how hard it is to scout, and what they look for in a kid.
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I can think of lots of guys that looked good initially and tailed off. Its pretty easy to make a list. Was it their talent? Was it their inability to work hard enough? Listen well enough? Was it bad development? Its impossible to know the reason without being on the inside. I have definitely heard comments from insiders that some players are rock heads and don’t listen to the coaches. I won’t dime them out but some are playing now and not doing as well as we all hoped they would. The Phillies know their minor league pitching development has been subpar, they just fired the guy running it. They plan to be tougher with pitchers this year and let them finish rough innings instead of pulling them at max pitch counts and pitch relievers on back to back days, two things not done before. Let’s hope the new approach helps. Whatever happened to Colvin?
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What are the opinions of Trevor May and Darin Ruf?
Good scouting, Bad Development?
Good Scouting, Good Development, Just not good enough?
Good Scouting, Bad Development, Still has a chance to start?
I think the Phillies have seemed to go with great athletes who they think can develop into baseball players. This put a lot of pressure on the coaching system. The supposed benefit is that the very few who make it can be superstars.
I still think Hewitt has great tools, and if he could learn to hit he’d be great.
Altherr has the same flaw but nowhere near as damaging.
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I think Ruf is a guy who has talent, but not premiere talent other than power, and has basically developed to his full extent. When you apply the test ‘what did even the rational optimists think he could become on draft day?’ I think you have to conclude that he has developed to his full potential, with more power than expected. Career-wise, he has suffered by 1B being blocked. Had he been able to play every day since he had that great September call-up, we might have a higher view of his success.
Hewitt was just a bad pick. BA commented that age of HS players is something that some teams have taken into consideration and reaped the benefits of that approach. Hewitt was a VERY old HS draftee — a year older than most in his class. A year makes a big difference at that age, especially when playing in a weak baseball area. I don’t think Hewitt every had what could honestly be called great tools. He can run, although not with the pre-injury Quinn and he has middling power and a strong if not super accurate arm, but unlike most of the Phillies toolsy guys, he never could play D. He stank as an IF and is adequate at best as an OF. His hit tool is subpar and he has a huge platoon split. Even his speed tool is meh. Other than his repeat year at Lakewood, he has been a poor base stealer.
I keep thinking/hoping that history has/will soon teach the Phillies their lesson on their brand of toolsy OF. You don’t need to spend a first rounder to get the sort of guy that they covet. We spent firsts on Golson and Hewitt, a supplemental on Collier, a first on Larry Greene, a second on Gose and Cozens. Contrast that collection to Brown (20th round), Altherr (9th round), Ruf (20th round), Howard (5th round), a 4th on Bourn, a 5th on Michael Taylor, and 3rds on Zach Green and Hudson. You have to conclude that we did equally well after the second round in finding guys with the speed and power tools. Some of the benefits of the later picks was derived by considering college position players. These college guys were toolsy though — Bourn was one of the fastest guys in his draft and Howard and Ruf were among the top power tool guys in their draft.
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Trevor May never developed enough control. Same with Colvin and Martin, largely with another org.
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I have some questions too, especially regarding the pitching. Last year, every pitcher under Ray Burris’s direction completely sucked – as in went into full throttle reverse sucked. Philippe Aumont was confused by inconsistent directions between the AAA guys and Dubee. Rosenberg was not good in AAA. Martin was so-so. Jake Diekman, who was lights out in AAA in 2012, was terrible in AAA in 2013 and then was promoted to the majors and dramatically improved. What? How does that happen? It can happen for a variety of reasons, but I think it may be because the AAA pitching coach is horrible and the bullpen coach in Philly – Rod Nichols – who used to be Diekman’s pitching coach is excellent. So, yes, I’m concerned about the minor league instruction – especially with pitchers – but I’m thankful that Nichols has been retained.
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Yet Burris remains.
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Exactly – hence the concern.
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Mayberry inked at $1.6M. Last two seasons, Mayberry has hit .237 with a .294 OBP, a .687 OPS and 25 home runs in 283 games. He hit .228 with a .290 OBP and .676 OPS with nine home runs in 89 starts in 2013. Among the 76 major league outfielders with at least 350 at-bats last year, Mayberry’s .286 OBP ranked 73rd. Only Atlanta’s B.J. Upton (-1.8) had a lower WAR (Wins Above Replacement) than Mayberry’s -1.1. Mayberry is likely to be Revere’s primary backup.
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Really, I’d rather go another year with Mayberry than bring in the sort of guy whom RAJ has brought in the past two off-seasons. I suspect RAJ thinks that Byrd can play CF. If Hernandez makes the team, then he will be Revere’s backup.
A lot will be determined by the 2014 season. We will know whether or not Revere is good enough to be our starting CF going forward. We will have a better read on Hernandez as a CF. We will see whether Gillies does or dies as a Phillies farmhand and whether Altherr establishes himself as a guy who can play CF in Philly in a couple of years. Whether or not we have an in-house CF for the longer intermediate term will depend upon the answers to these questions and whether or not Tocci shows signs of hitting.
Mayberry is not a problem. He will be the 5th OF on a bad team. In other words, when you are thinking whether or not the Phillies can super luck out an be a contender in 2014, what Mayberry does or doesn’t do is pretty much beside the point. He was quite good in 2011 but has done next to nothing since then. That makes him about as good a gamble as any other gamble whom RAJ might sign.
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I expect Mayberry OR Ruf will make the team but not both. I believe they’re looking for a left handed bat for the bench for that last spot. Colvin just signed with the Orioles so he’s out. I could see them trading Mayberry for a similar but left handed hitting guy. If the guy they find plays CF, it could effect Mayberry vs Ruf if its not through a trade. If the new guy doesn’t play CF, then Ruf goes and Mayberry stays. Byrd can not play CF. Cesar is still a possibility and I think Gwynn could steal a spot with a strong spring because he offers what they don’t have much of, speed and great OF defense. His bat is weak though and he wouldn’t offer a good pinch hitting option. I expect a trade of Mayberry or Ruf.
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Even last year, when he was just plain bad, Mayberry was a pretty fair platoon type player. He’s worth the money if used properly. It would be nice to see him get some at bats against tough lefty starters. He can also pinch hit and take the field at first. He’s fine for what he is.
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Well judging by the write -up….he is in BJ Upton’s class.
Nevertheless, I never had any issues with him as long as he was used in a supplementary role.
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He may be in Upton’s class, but for one heck of a lot less $. Upton’s role was to be at least a near-star and his contract is commensurate with that. I don’t expect the Phillies reserves to be of star quality, nor for their contracts to approach the value of stars, or even starters. To compare a 5th OF to Upton is really apples and oranges.
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I was being facetious.
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It’s sometimes really hard to identify facetiousness on the internet.
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You didn’t see it in my intonation and inflection!
Just kidding…again being facetious.
Understand the internet obstacle to ‘hearing’ what and how something is to be understood.
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I went with Cozens here. Marginally better K rate than Green and superior power if he can harness it. I’m not so excited about Hernandez, it he is a utility player he’s basically as valuable as the Pete Orrs and Miguel Cairos of the world, and to my mind he’s going to have to prove he’s something more. But I expect him to take this spot–if for no other reason than Green and Cozens are fairly similar players at the same level and are likely to split the vote,
I agree with the poster above that we should start talking about Tommy Joseph soon. We don’t know it he’s going to switch positions and if he can stick at catcher he’s still a decent prospect to me. Lots of interesting arguments ahead, next week should be fun.
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Did I read that right? Buchanan is a non-roster invite to the big league camp? Has he ever been in our top 30? He’s a 7th round pick in 2010. At 24 years old, he’s in his prime. His BBs/9 have been consistently 3 or lower in every level. He’s not a big K guy. He’s very unassuming. It’s pretty strange that a guy who gets an invite to major league camp has never been in the top 30.
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I guess Ruben doesn’t follow our website.
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Buchanan has been a sleeper of mine for years, he doesn’t have any plus pitches, and the changeup is fringy. The profile is AAA depth starter or middle reliever. He is in camp as starting pitching depth, and it would not surprise me if he is the first pitcher called up when there is an injury. It is better raw stuff than Cloyd and the Phillies are running out of other options
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I agree with you on Buchannan, he actually looks like a guy who could pitch in the majors. However, I think Pettibone will be the first guy up after MAG wins the last spot and Pettibone goes to LHV.
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Having controllable starting pitching depth in the minors is helpful. I just do not expect much of Bunchanan even if he gets the call. But he is a fringe guy worth checking into.
I’d still prefer that Phillies acquire another ‘risk’ starting pitcher so that MAG opens in the bullpen and Pettibone in LHV. Pettibone is callup with MAG moving to starter after the All-Star Break.
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He’s in camp as a depth guy who will be called up in case of injury. Like the pitching equivalent of Kevin Frandsen.
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Not at all, Frandsen has a spot on the major league roster.
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I didn’t vote for him in this slot, but I have no problem with with Cesar at #10. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a regular, but I definitely see him as a solid, contributing player..
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I agree. Cesar could surprise. He needs just a small improvement in a couple areas to be a starting quality player. Odds are always againt prospects but it would not suprise me..
I just like the possible upside on the less predictable guys.
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You’re right, he could very easily end up being a starter for a below-average team, which is what the Phillies look likely to be for the next few years. We’ve been spoiled this last decade. After all, Utley’s predecessor Marlon Anderson had a career OPS of .705 and ended up playing a 12 years. Who knows, Cesar could have that type of career.
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Depends on what his defense is really like. He seemed like a guy who always got positive recognition for his defense, but some have called him no better than average. If he ends up an above average defender at 2B, then it’s entirely possible that he could be an asset. His power is never going to be good but he’s still only 23, so it’s not so far fetched to think he could develop some doubles power.
A league average 2B only had a .692 OPS last year.
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