Reader Top 30 #9 – Kelly Dugan

2014 Reader Top 30

Aaron Altherr takes the #8 spot,  Yoel Mecias joins the poll

  1. Maikel Franco
  2. Jesse Biddle
  3. J.P. Crawford
  4. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez
  5. Carlos Tocci
  6. Roman Quinn
  7. Ethan Martin
  8. Aaron Altherr
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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

70 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #9 – Kelly Dugan”

  1. I’m between Cozens, Green and Dugan here. So I ask: Which would be most painful to lose via trade?

    PP’s server would buckle if Cozens were shipped.

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  2. Went with Green.

    The strikeouts are concerning, but he showed great power and plays a premium position. Remember that the positional adjustment from 3B to RF is 1 WAR.

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    1. To add to this:

      Over the last 5 years, the average MLB third baseman had a wRC+ of 97, the average MLB right fielder had a wRC+ of 106, and the average MLB first baseman had a wRC+ of 111.

      So compared to a third baseman, a right fielder is 2/3 of the way to being a first baseman.

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  3. I like reading the insight of many on this site. I’m a novice, don’t really have much to contribute, but one observation I have is that the list so far plus the list of players not yet placed is more impressive than in the recent past. Whether it pans out or not, it appears that the Phillies have added more depth to the farm system, something they needed to do over the past 2 or 3 years.

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    1. I agree with this. 1 to 3 is solid but unspectacular,, 4 to 8 on the weak side, but from here to at least the low 20s, maybe even to 30, they have a bunch of guys who look pretty good for this far down the list.

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      1. I agree too. After reading Eric Longenhagen’s really interesting writeup on Cord Sandberg, I thought that best metaphor for the system might be an hourglass shape–thin at the top but it really balloons with interesting prospects as you go down the list. I guess there’s always a bit of that with these lists, the guys in Low A are fun to dream on because we are willing to overlook glaring flaws, but it seems even more the case this year than in years past. Here’s Longenhagen’s post by the way:

        http://crashburnalley.com/2014/01/15/the-future-is-unwritten-cord-sandberg/

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    2. Something i have been wondering. How much would our system rise if Crawford became a BA top 15 player after this year? With the quality of depth that we have the main thing we are missing IMO is that star player at the top ala Brown or Singleton.

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      1. Well it would help. But I think a more glaring issue is the lack of guys that you would slot in around 4 to 8 – generally players in the high minors who project to be solid regulars though not stars. (Of course lower minors high upside players without glaring flaws could fill those spots as well.) Instead we have some interesting but flawed players, guys who would look great at, say, 9 to 13, but weak as 4 to 8.

        So I guess what would really help the system shoot up would be breakouts by multiple players in the 4 to 15 range, without losing other promising players to injury like last year. If, say, Dugan and Altherr take big steps forward, that would help a lot.

        And the draft of course will help.

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      2. To be clear, I have said in the past, and still believe, that the biggest lack in the system is potential stars. A seeming contradiction. But there’s a difference between “given the state of the major league team, what do we need to return to contention?” (potential stars) and,”what’s keeping the minor league system from looking strong compared to other systems?” (mostly the lack of the solid upper minors prospects).

        I would day that the system is, top to bottom, a little stronger than it was a year ago. But, compared to then, through graduation and injury, we’re really lacking decent prospects in the upper minors.

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  4. I went with Ken Giles just on a hunch. I think that both Giles and Biddle will be on the major leagie roster by July.

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  5. This is the toughest call for me so far. I agree that it’s down to Cozens,Green and Dugan. I did think briefly about Sev.Gonz. but couldn’t pull the trigger.If I was playing it safe I’d go Dugan but I’m gonna go w/ the upside here and go Cozens. I prob. could’ve just as easily of went Green but I like Cozens slightly more.

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  6. I chose Cesar here but I was looking at the statistics for Zach Green & Dylan Cozens. Their 2 year numbers are almost identical. Green is .264/.340/.458 with a .788 OPS. Cozens is .261/.342/.458 with an .800 OPS. Statistically equal. Cozens is a very big man. Green is just a big man. Because of Cozens size, he’s looking more like a first baseman. Can he hit enough to be a 1st division 1B? I’m not sold. Green plays 3B. I think he can stick there. At least at this point in his learning curve, he can stay at 3rd. Ks are a bit of a concern for Green and Cozens has more speed. Right now, Green looks better than Cozens but neither will be in my top 10. 11 -15 somewhere.

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    1. There seems to be some debate about Cozens switching positions.I saw him play a couple of games last year in Right and he looked pretty good. I understand, it doesn’t mean he’ll stay there long term but I think some are jumping the gun w/ the poistion switch.

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      1. I agree PhilsPhan. It was stated in an earlier post but i think an apt comp physically is Dunn. Cozens may end up at 1B when he is around 30 but I think it will certainly be after his arb years and after the big club gets value.

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      2. I have heard a lot of concerns about the route running and aptitude to play the OF. I think his long term home is 1B, I wouldn’t force him out of the OF any time soon.

        All of that being said, if the power and bat play, the position is irrelevant, if they don’t play position is still irrelevant.

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        1. I hear the rout running concern always referenced. My question to everyone is how many guys do you think take great routs to balls all of the time/most of the time/some of the time.

          And I agree with the Bat comment which is why i went with him here, because of all of the power guys in the system he seems like the one with the greatest likelihood of realizing it. And I would be very surprised if he was not able to play LF better than Burrel did in his career.

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    2. Green is now the premier power righty hitter on our Pharm. Should Asche prosper at 3rd base–which I expect–Green would be a welcome bat of that character at some other position. If the great Franco experiment fails, Green could learn 1st base; if Franco succeeds at 1st base, then Green would be well advised (by coaches) to learn the outfield, i.e., left field. season (’14) would be a good time to introduce him to the OF with his playing mainly 3rd base. It’s never too early to anticipate the future.

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  7. I had this down to Cesar and Dugan. They’re hard to compare and contrast, as one is looking to add utility in CF, one is coming off a red-flag waving AA sample, etc. etc. Neither is likely to be an all-star, though if Cesar can find a home at 2B somewhere in the league, he could be a solid regular, as could Dugan if he fields/throws well enough to stick in RF, as opposed to shifting to LF where his bat won’t play up as much. And so I come to the thing I try not to do but eventually wind up doing a handful of times each year. If I were a team looking to trade something to Philly to fill a need in the next two years for either a 2B or a RF, and the prospective FA market was equally uninspiring for both, who would I prefer to fill one of two holes in my positional roster by opening day 2015?

    For me, the answer was Kelly Dugan. I try only to do this with guys in at least similar proximity to the majors, because if you offered me Carlos Tocci versus Kelly Dugan, and I did in fact have a need for their two positions, I would likely want the certainty, but we know trades aren’t completed in a vacuum like that, so that “who would you trade for” bit becomes even more abstract that it was already. Anyway, Cesar is next for me, without a doubt. I had Quinn at 10, and I may still convince myself to swap them on my list, but no one below that is going to beat out Hernandez right now.

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    1. I have Dugan and Hernandez 6-7 after my top 5, which I agree with. I’d like to see Dugan prove he is durable and can hit at higher levels, but I like his defense and power. Hernandez has proven he can hit, but that’s about it. He needs to add something to his game, better power, great defense at second, another position, something more, or he’ll just be a 4A player.

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  9. The fact that we got decent guys like Sev, Dugan, Cozens, Green this far down is pretty good. No more scrubs like Aumont and Gillies murking things up.

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    1. I mean, not to defend Aumont and Gillies as they currently appear, but they were good prospects in their day, certainly guys worth ranking in this range, 8-12 in the system. I’m not picking on you personally, but I think comments like this reflect a common mistake people make when judging prospects. The fact is, most of these guys we are talking about now are going to end up being scrubs like Aumont and Gillies. That’s just the nature of the game. Actually, Aumont has had (brief) success on the major league level and could end up back there again if he ever figures out his mechanics and gets his head back on straight. Aumont’s case isn’t the best-case scenario, of course, but it isn’t the worst-case scenario either. Gillies is another situation, I can understand why people feel disappointed in him, but he was still a very good prospect in his day–an excellent fielding CF with speed and a little power. If a 2010-vintage Tyson Gillies was eligible to be voted for on this list, we would most definitely rank him right around here, because he bears some superficial similarities to Aaron Altherr. So… caveat emptor.

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      1. I know, of course hindsight is 20/20 but it does seem like there are more quality choices in the low teens this year.

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        1. That I agree with you on! The difference is we’re not voting for scrubs like Austin Hyatt. (Sorry Austin, if you are reading.)

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  10. I’m surprised not to see Rupp or Milner on the ballot.I’m sticking with Dugan then would pick only Hernandez before Rupp next. Rupp has improved so steadily that I’m not convinced he won’t continue to improve and end up a starter. I also like Green and Cozens but then would pick Milner before any other pitcher, practically tied with Giles and Gonzalez.

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    1. I am also surprised Milner is not on the ballot yet. He does have the best change-up in the sytem according to BA, and for lefty starter thats a plus.

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    2. There is pretty much zero reason to think Rupp will get any better than he is at this point. Given his age, he’s basically what he’s gonna be. He’s essentially fulfilled his promise when he was drafted as his ceiling then was basically “backup catcher”. He’s going into his Age 25 season where he’ll be fighting for the backup spot and likely starting in Lehigh unless Nieves or Ruiz gets injured in ST.

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      1. I still expect some improvement from him. Age 24 isn’t quite peak year yet, especially for a catcher. I agree that it is stretching his realistic ceiling at this point in his development to project him as even an average starting major league catcher. Still, I would not be at all surprised, and almost expect, that he will do some major league starting during his career.

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        1. I certainly hope he improves, because a 5.2% BB rate and 28.4% K rate in AAA does not augur well for a MLB career!

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  11. Let’s see: Cesar Hernandez or Kelly Dugan.

    Age: Both 23. Level: Hernandez Major Leagues, Dugan AA. Defensive value 2B>RF, Hernadez. Performance last year in AA, Hernandez.

    So you have 2 players the same age, where one is better defensively, has hit better at AA at a younger age, has been through AAA and is already in the Major Leagues, but we are debating whos the better prospect?

    Cesar Hernandez.

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    1. Because this is not just a listing of results, and for the record i like Hernandez more than most, but that is where the art of this comes in. You have to project a ceiling and likelihood of reaching it. I think what can be said in Cesar v. Dugan and you prove it with the above. Due to his proximity Cesar has set his floor at a viable MLB bench player while Dugan’s floor is still in question and could be AA injury washout. I voted Cozens here but i fell similarly with Hernandez as i did with Asche last year. Neither will likely become stars, but they both can be contributors on a winning team.

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      1. Hernandez’s floor really isn’t that clear. A utility IF usually has to be able to play SS and/or 3B, not just 2B. A 2B/CF utility guy is a lot less common, and he has yet to master CF. I think he is a plus defensive 2B. So, the question is: will he have enough bat to be a starting 2B or CF.

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    2. All that is ultimately the reason I voted for Hernandez in this spot. I think Dugan has a higher ceiling, but I I think Cesar can be a starting 2B and the floor is higher.

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    3. Oliver 5 year Projections, WAR by year 2014-2018 = 5 year WAR (see fangraphs)
      Kelly Dugan: 2.4, 2.6, 2.7, 2.8, 2.9 = 13.4
      Cesar Hernandez: 1.5, 1.6, 1.7, 1.6, 1.6 = 8.0
      I think that the system is optimistic for minor leaguers, but it is objective, so it is good for comparisons. Both players get equal positive value for defensive ability and positional adjustment. I think that means that it considers Hernandez an average fielder and Dugan an above average fielder.

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      1. The Oliver projection is one reason I picked Dugan just ahead of Hernandez here. A WAR of 2 is a major league regular, so Dugan is projected to be a slightly better than average major leaguer, while Hernadez projects as slightly below average. The system uses major league equivalents to account for level of competition, incorporates defensive statistics, positional adjustments, and places numerical scores that I assume summarize the facts we see. I think it boils down to Hernandez’s lack of power and that his defensive is not quite good enough to counteract that as a second baseman. In contrast, Dugan gets credit for both his defense and his offense (about a 138 wRC+ the last 2 seasons. which has been much better than Hernandez, ever.) Yes, Hernandez played at AA, AAA, and MLB those two seasons, but both Oliver and Steamer say that Dugan is a already a better MLB hitter than him right now. They played rookie ball together in 2009, and now Dugan is 2 levels behind. That is a check mark in Hernandez’s favor because one of the reasons for that is that Dugan has been injury-prone, which I think is a continuing concern. But Dugan is 6 months younger, gave up switch hitting just 2 seasons ago, and as a Californian probably played less in his youth a Venezuelan, giving him more upside that Oliver may not even be accounting for.

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  12. I have been with Sevy for the past couple of slots so sticking with him. I think Cozens and Green will be in consideration next year, after hopefully having good years. I need another year from Dugan, and he is my pick for biggest jump, and I still think Altherr is a hope and a prayer that he will hit.

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  13. Dugan, without enormous enthusiasm. I wanted to go with Cozens or Green here, I really was planning to, but in the end it’s hard for me to rank them ahead of Dugan and Hernandez when they’re striking out 25 percent of the time in Cozens’ case and 30 percent in Green’s. I still might jump Cozens over Hernandez, though, as I’m pretty meh on Cesar. He looks like a 4A player to me, though I think he’s very valuable to keep around in that role–we never know when Utley’s knees are going to go again.

    As I said before, if Dugan can cut down on the strikeouts and prove himself as a hitter at AA next year, and the defense is good enough to stick in RF, he could be another version of Cody Asche–a prospect no one drools over but who quietly puts himself in a position to have a solid major league career. I just don’t see Hernandez doing that.

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    1. Dugan did get some love from Keith Law who sees him as a ML regular. I’m sure he’ll be in his Phillies top 10.

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      1. I actually didn’t know that about Law, that’s very encouraging and it makes me feel much more comfortable ranking Dugan here.

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        1. Here is his blurb on Dugan from last summer:

          Dugan’s tools are pretty average across the board — he’s a 45-50 runner with a 55 arm and might be a 55 glove in right — but he’s got a good feel to hit thanks to fast wrists that allow him to accelerate his bat very quickly. A left-handed hitter, Dugan has no stride, just raising and lowering his front leg, and crouches more than you’d like to see, but with good hip rotation and solid results so far I wouldn’t argue for reducing any of the noise in his swing until it becomes a problem.

          The lack of tools is a little bit of a concern, but his plan at the plate is better than Franco’s and he’s a good enough athlete to stay in right and perhaps end up above average there, making him a potential everyday guy in a system that could use a few more of them.

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    1. BA’s list came out a while ago, the Top 30 is in the book which arrives end of January. Keith Law will release all his lists next week. BP is slowly putting on lists and the NL East is their last division (on NL West now). I have no clue as to Sickels’ order but he is putting them out regularly. Scout.com released theirs a while ago and it was free. MLB.com releases their Top 100 in a week, no clue on when they release team Top 20s.

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  15. Dugan. I’m just not as enamored of Cesar as some are on here, and Dugan seems to be finally figuring it out.

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    1. Dugan is questionable to ever make it to the Majors on a regular basis whereas Cesar’s floor is 2nd division starter right now. If not for Utley, he’d likely be penciled into the 2B job going into the season.

      That’s a tough debate over floor vs. potential there.

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      1. Was that a typo? I assume you mean ceiling is second division regular and floor is 2B-only utility guy.

        If Hernandez’ floor is a starter, he should probably be in our top 5.

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  16. I’m going to start putting in little plugs for Sam Hiciano. Yes, his BA and strikeouts were not good, but, as a 19 year old in a new country, he did a pretty nice job in limited plate appearances – excellent power and good walk rate. His rates were similar to Cozens and Green. Does anyone know more about him? He’s one of the guys I think could come from out of nowhere this year and become a top prospect.

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    1. Hopefully. Its really hard to rank a guy that has never even played in full-season ball…same with Green for that matter. Hopefully both of them are much, much higher after a season in Lakewood.

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      1. Posters are just saying such “bold” statements now so if a player is doing well over the summer, they can go back and say “I told you so.”

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        2. Phillies have picked a number of big body power guys in recent drafts. Cozens is one of the biggest and the fittest of the big bodies. He is also the first to actually put up good stats. Zach Green has also put up good stats, but isn’t quite as big a body as the others.

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  18. I went Cesar mostly on proximity. I’d really like him more if he stole more bases. He’s got reasonable speed for hustle doubles and triples and the like; it seems like he should be stealing more bases. Something to watch.

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    1. I thought he did pretty well last year. Over 30 steals and a low caught steeling percentage. He’s not a pure burner, so 25-40 steals would be great for him.

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          1. I recall the Allentown radio announcer saying at one point that over half were of the delayed steal variety. I have no idea where one would actually find such a stat.

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    1. I’m a big fan of Green’s – he obviously has big-time, in-game power and has a pretty good eye too. I was a little concerned that some of the scouting reports I’ve seen on him were not that high on him as a hitter (seemed to downplay the power and suggest it won’t translate well at higher levels – reports on fielding were just fine), and I’m not just talking about the strikeout issue (which we all know about). I hope they are wrong, because if this kid figures it out, you may be looking at a big star. We are going to learn a lot about many of our younger prospects this year – Green is one of them.

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  21. Agree with poster above that it is much easier to forgive major flaws in younger prospects. That allows their ranking to be higher since the ceiling still seems more possible and the floor of “never gets out of AA” is just assumed. If Green K’s 50% and power wanes where will he rank next year? Not even in Top30? That does not even include the injury risk each year brings.

    I have no problem with bold statements or estimated projections since I think a case can be made for many of these guys. Guys like Hernandez have a major flaw (no power) which everyone agrees will not change and limits his upside. Others, like Altherr, has flaw which many think could still improve in better plate discipline.

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  22. You know, Kelly Dugan really isn’t a bad pick at all at this spot and, if I were judging between them, I’d put him ahead of Altherr. Dugan gets very favorable reports from the scouts about his bat speed and, in terms of the walks, I think they will pick up again as he gets more comfortable at higher levels. He has generally had good plate discipline. Reports of his fielding and arm strength are good too and it sounds like he’s got a good head on his shoulders.

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