Reader Top 30 #7 -Ethan Martin

2014 Reader Top 30

Roman Quinn takes the #6 spot.

  1. Maikel Franco
  2. Jesse Biddle
  3. J.P. Crawford
  4. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez
  5. Carlos Tocci
  6. Roman Quinn
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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

54 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #7 -Ethan Martin”

  1. #4 went to a guy with bad enough medicals that he signed a 3 year 12 mil deal as essentially a free agent in his mid 20s.
    #5 OPS’d .510 at the lowest level of full season ball.
    #6 OPS’d .670 at the same level, has a game reliant upon speed and torn up his knee, is guaranteed to play only a half season (we hope) for the second year in a row, and has to change positions.

    Either we screwed up the rankings or the system is in a lot of trouble.

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        1. You might disagree with the Tocci selection, but if you find it “completely baffling” then I think you’re undervaluing age/level in your thinking.

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    2. You are totally discounting tools and scouting reports. Stats are a great source, however when evaluating talent that is still developing, it is important to take expert opinions into the consideration.

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      1. +1 – in this case, Quinn is way too high, IMO, based on medical concerns for a guy whose primary tool was elite speed. He’s by no means a washout, but that injury is damaging to his status. That said, to crash on Tocci without considering scouting is shortsighted. Would it have been better to see him OPS .750 in Williamsport for half a year? Not sure that argument would hold water.

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        1. Agree 100%. I’m still high on Quinn because I’m a homer and recently there have been a few athletes who ruptured their Achilles who have returned to pre-injury form (Demaryious Thomas, Michael Crabtree). Of course netiher of those guys were huge burners but I’m cautiously optimistic. But you could counter that argument with Ryan Howard.

          But to rag on Tocci while just citing stats is beyond narrow minded.

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          1. Seeing more of Quinn’s total game is a good reason to stay moderately excited about him. If he comes back with 12-15 HR pop, (may be a stretch), even a 60 speed tool in CF isn’t damning to his value. Similarly, if he has the range and glove but not an accurate enough arm on longer throws, that good bit of pop could also play at 2B.

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          2. The Howard argument though is on a guy 10 years older with, what, 60 or 70 more pounds on his frame? A guy who was, frankly, probably a 40 runner before the injury anyway. I’m not discounting the injury, but Howard and Quinn really aren’t analagous to eachother.

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            1. Quinn is not howard with this injury. Howard was slow and fat and old. Quinn is light as a feather and young. Take that into consideration and its a drop from 80 speed to 75. As long as they move him to cf, his original postion and he is right back in the mix as a top prospect. I said this below. Achillies are not career threatening injuries anymore.

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          1. A torn achilles isnt career threatening anymore. It will probably take his 80 speed and drop it to 75. Move him to cf and you still have a plus defender with a good arm.

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            1. So, yes, if that means he would have the speed of a young Jimmy Rollins as opposed to young Tim Raines or Vince Coleman, I think his other skills could end up being strong enough where that would not be a show stopper.

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    3. More a sign that every prospect after the top three has something wrong with them, either injury, performance, or some combination of both. I would rank Tocci lower than this list because I think his tools are a little overrated. At this spot I like Green for the raw power coupled with at least average defense. The swing and miss is his demerit but we can’t have everything at this point.

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  3. I’m gonna go Altherr here. I’m liking what I’m hearing on him from other sites and scouts. He made some great strides last year and has a good combination of speed and power. Looks like he could be the Phils CF of the future. Obviously, the K’s have to come down in AA,though.

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  4. Martin again.

    I like Zach Green soon. Have him above Altherr and Dugan based on ceiling and position.

    Still don’t know what to do with Severino and Hernandez.

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  5. Although I know he wasn’t exactly age appropriate in A+, I went with Dugan here. The floor has been set with him. There is an argument that he could go anywhere from here until #15. I think his proximity and skill set place him in the bottom half of the top ten.

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    1. I’m not quite ready to say that Dugan has a major league floor.

      When he was in A+, my thought was, okay he’s killing a level where he’s a little old, but he has a somewhat worrisome strikeout rate, and he’s doing it with a very high BABIP and a good walk rate. Let’s see how that translates to higher levels.

      Then he went to AA. The strikeout rate stayed the same, the walks vanished, and the BABIP regressed to near average.

      I think that, when piecing together the Kelly Dugan story, his time in AA is very concerning.

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      1. I don’t disagree however, under 300 PAs at Reading isn’t exactly a trend. That’s why I put the caveat that he could be ranked anywhere from 7-15 in my book.

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  6. I’ll give you three players all headed into their age 23 seasons

    1. 1448 PA’s/.365 OBP/.820 OPS/.291 avg./7.75% BB/A+ and AA
    2. 1773 PA’s/.318 OBP/.715 OPS/.261 avg/7.11% BB/A+
    3. 745 PA’s/.345 OBP/.775 OPS/.297 avg/5.37% BB rate but 13.42% K Rate/A+

    I don’t give 2 much of a chance to be a MLB player. Really do we forget you have to hit to be a big league player regardless of how good your defense is. By and large above average players hit from day 1 in the minors.

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        1. I thought 2 was Altherr but I saw way more PAs than that. Maybe I double counted a total column as a season. Perkins I would not have remembered was that young.

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    3. So no one ever has it click for them later? I’m not a big fan of Altherr over Dugan but I don’t really like either one of them as major leaguers. I think it’s a mistake to discount improvement by young players.

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  8. I look at Quinn and think of Gillies. I look at Martin and think of Aumont. I look at Dugan and think of Michael Taylor. I’m sticking with Dugan here.

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    1. Martin has a much more athletic and consistent delivery than Aumont. That’s helpful to his cause in comparison to Aumont.

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    3. I recommend against evaluating prospects solely by comping to one other Phillies prospect from the last 2-3 years.

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  9. Though I went with Cesar again, I think that Martin is a good choice. Thing is, all of our top 5 pitchers have a better shot than any of the rest of our position players at being valuable major leaguers, simply because there are more openings for them.Barring injury, all the pitchers on our ballots will get at least a cup of coffee, Giles is a star if he finds his contol, for example. Even SevGo.

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  10. Still with Severino here. I just have no feeling that Altherr is any kind of a prospect yet, and need a big year from Dugan at Reading. Knapp, if he was healthy, would be right here for me. Martin looks like a reliever and Cesar a utility guy.

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    1. I agree with you. I’m actually running out of likeable prospects at this point. Usually that takes me through the top 10 without much trouble but this year, in this system… I’m just not enamored with anyone.

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  11. Even taking into account a very split ballot, I’m mystified with the Quinn choice–assuming he was number 4 or 5 previously, he gets knocked down only 1 or 2 slots for sustaining an injury that will cost him perhaps a year of development time (at least until he returns to full capacity) and which impacts his key baseball skill, speed? No matter how weak the system may be, I see a half-dozen players on this list who rank ahead of Quinn at this point. Even before the injury, last year’s performance was iffy, with major positional shift questions arising. Until he gets back on a baseball field and proves he can still run, cut, and do all the other things you have to as a shortstop/base stealer, he has absolutely no future as a prospect. What’s the chances of that happening? I don’t know, but even if you think that it’s say, 70 percent likely that he returns to full capacity, that means there’s a 30 percent chance that his career if effectively done. And that’s just to get back to where he was last year, which was promising but very raw and flawed.

    Sorry to dwell on the last choice, but one perhaps unintended side effect of not having the totals available at the time we vote is that we don’t really get to comment on the frontrunners until afterward. Quinn’s victory actually took me completely by surprise.

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    1. Sorry, I think I wrote imprecisely–I don’t think Quinn is done as a prospect if he’s not a short stop, but I do think he’s done as a prospect if he’s not a base stealing threat.

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    2. I agree. I could understand a high ranking if he’d been tearing it up at any point prior to his injury, but that’s not the case. As of now, I’m hoping for the best, but expecting nothing.

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    3. I don’t agree with Quinn at #6, but it makes sense if you’re optimistic about his chances for a full recovery. I think that (when healthy) he’s clearly above everyone else left on the board. Before news of the achilles broke, I had him at #4.

      I would love to see stats on recovery rates from achilles injuries.

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  12. I’m surprised that Cozens, a high draft pick, is garnering such little love. I went with Cozens again because I believe he has a chance to be a starting major league RF with serious pop and we have very few guys with that quality. Choosing Quinn, coming off an achillies tear when his only stand out skill was his speed, before Cozens seems like a bad decision to me but I hope I’m wrong. I have Green next and can understand if someone selects Green before Cozens. Martin is a legit reliever who is very close to the majors although I think he’ll begin the year at LHV. I like Dugan a lot too and could see him here too, I just think Cozens has a higher upside. Dugan is obviously closer in AA and has a chance of becoming a starting major league OF but he needs to have a big year. Cesar is after these guys for me.

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    1. Its his relative lack of position…most scouts seem to think he’ll end up at 1B…the offensive bar for 1B is astronomically high for a prospect. You cant be a good hitter there in the minors, you have to be otherworldly to be a top prospect if you are destined for 1B.

      I’d probably put him around #9 or #10 though as he hit very well in his first season and Williamsport is a very tough offensive environment (the entire NY/Penn League is actually). To put it in perspective, the average hitter in the NY Penn League was a .651 OPS while Cozens (very age appropriate too) put up an .812 OPS. (Note: That .651 league OPS is the 2nd lowest among all 31 “minor” leagues that B-R.com tracks…only the DSL has a lower league OPS)

      If he can stick even in LF, his stock goes way up.

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      1. On that note, Zach Green flashed impressive power for the NY Penn league for a 19 year old. They were 10th (green) and 12th (cozens) overall in the that league for OPS and 1st and 4th among 19 year olds.

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  13. I think it is more a commentary on the lack of prospects in this grouping. If our wishes come true, and he regains his health completely, then I can see him in this spot based on tools. But, he is not healthy. Neither is Knapp, although due back much sooner than Quinn. Watson and Morgan would fit in, however, both have career-threatening injuries. This June’s draft is huge, and I had asked previously where it is reasonable to expect this year’s pick to fall in the Top ten. I think he has to be top 3, and the 2D Rd. pick should fit into the top 10. We won’t know about Morgan/watson/Knapp/Quinn at time of draft in June.

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    1. Yeah, another way of looking at Quinn at #6 is that it very well might have been where we would have ranked him even before the injury (Tocci vs. a healthy Quinn would have been an interesting argument). Not downgrading him after a serious setback is not realistic.

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      1. Quinn is a borderline Top 10 guy if he was fully healthy…given the injury and the questions regarding his recovery (due to the severity of that specific injury to his style of play), its ridiculous to rank him at #6.

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        1. I think you are exactly correct. A lot of posters seem to be grasping for hope at a time that the big league Phillies realistically project to win about 75 games and we have a below average farm. The clutching for hope sometimes manifests itself in evaluating and ranking the few potentially solid if healthy, but obviously very seriously injured, top prospects we have. Quinn had an 80 tool. We don’t have many of those. Hope requires the assumption that he recovers fully. I don’t have such high hopes for total recoveries by Quinn, Morgan, Joseph, Watson. My brand of over-exuberance focuses on possibly very unrealistic projections for Tocci, Tromp, Pujols, Cozens, Guillon, Sandberg, and Hernandez growing into their projected bodies and/or projected matured tool ratings. In both cases, it’s latching onto an area where there is currently a lack of knowledge and assuming the best. To project a reasonably quick turnaround for the major league Phillies, there really isn’t much alternative. Probably both forms of wishful thinking are needed.

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    1. He got ten fewer votes for #7 than he did for #6. I voted for him too, and I will continue to until he gets on the list.

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