Reader Top 30 #1 – Maikel Franco

2014 Reader Top 30

Welcome to the Reader Top 30.  For those not familiar with the process a new poll goes up every day Monday until Friday.  At the end we will solicit everyone’s personal Top 30s, talk breakout and sleeper prospects, and the writers here will give their personal Top 30s.  For those wondering we go to 30 because it is the industry standard set by Baseball America, also as voted by you we will maintain Baseball America’s standards as well which means any player eligible for rookie status will be listed, this includes Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Ethan Martin, and Cesar Hernandez.  I ask that if you keep to other standards that you vote based on this status and provide a Top 30 based on your own rankings.

To start we will begin with Baseball America’s Top 10 and I will add names either based on write-in votes.  The poll may expand or contract over the process based on voting trends (providing enough names while keeping it clean).

Unknown's avatar

About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

115 thoughts on “Reader Top 30 #1 – Maikel Franco”

  1. I see Biddle, Franco, and Crawford as viable #1 candidates. I could comfortably construct an argument for each. I suppose Gonzalez could be included in that mix, but I’m less comfortable analyzing Cuban players.

    From those I’ve talked to, Crawford is going to be an average major league shortstop barring injury. So I’ll go with him for now.

    Like

    1. I agree with you Brad. Biddle, Franco & Crawford are viable #1s in the Philly organization. I went with Biddle because I feel his 2nd half was not indicative of his ability. But I don’t think there is a clear cut #1. I almost voted MAG as #1 because I want to get him off the board. I find it very hard to rank him. His potential is to be a #3 and his impact could be immediate. He might be all bluster and blow since he hasn’t pitched in quite a while and the altering of his contract because of a possible injury.

      Like

    1. Ditto that. Since his second-half season at Lakewood he has been on fire.
      Hopefully he is hitting so well that the Phillies must decide if he will be a June call-up.

      Like

    2. I’m with you. I noticed him in 2010 back in for the same reason. I love home run hitters, especially those who are good defenders, and now I can add especially 20-year-olds who hit over 30 HR in a season! I was very impressed that Franco hit so successfully at both Clearwater and Reading given that he was new to each league and young for each league. With nearly 300 plate appearances at each level, his wRC+ was over 150 at each level.

      Like

        1. I noticed that and it disappoints me, but I put no stock in bad winter league performances. I only put stock in exceptionally good winter league stats when they support regular season stats, but that is very rarely and with varied results. (I remember Bobby Abreu one year, I think the year before he became an established regular; I remember Ruf 2 years ago continuing what he started in Reading; I was burnt by Julio Rodriguez, but pitchers are really unpredictable). Years ago I asked the original PhuturePhillies how much stock he places in winter league stats and he said zero.

          The sample size is small. The player may be mentally or physically tired after a long summer season. He may have a nagging injury. I know the owners and fans care a lot but I don’t know if good players try as hard in winter leagues as they do in summer leagues. I speculate that the accommodations and playing conditions may be worse than they are in the US minor leagues which could lead to distractions. I imagine some players are ready for a vacation and may slack off a bit in their preparation.

          Like

  3. I went with Biddle because of the three potential above average pitches, the potential #3 starter ability, and because I think his problems last year stemmed from both illness and his first major slump as a professional pitcher. I believe he can regain the form he started with last year and be an above average pitcher in the major leagues for a long time. Both Franco and Crawford will be major leaguers. I think Gonzalez is the hardest to rank because he probably needs some rehab before we see what he can do. I’ll wait on him.

    Like

  4. I went with Franco because I feel prospects are basically commodities and the current commodity with the highest value if sold (traded) is Franco. I think JP Crawford has the biggest potential, but the level of competition (even with the handful of games at Lakewood) is too low to put him at #1 right now. If he has a season like GCL at Lakewood this year he’s a top-20 prospect in baseball.

    Like

      1. Agreed. I have less to write in response now. But I like proximity so I’d go Biddle#2 then Crawford, then MAG.

        Like

        1. I would agree with PhxPhilly’s first 3. I usually go with upside over proximity but franco and biddle still have high upside with proximity. Went franco this year as i went biddle 1 last year only because of biddle’s inconsistency.

          Like

    2. “I think JP Crawford has the biggest potential”

      I think you are using that word differently than I would. Of the three or four contenders for the #1 spot I’d say Crawford has the highest floor despite being the farthest from the big leagues. Crawford still only projects as an average to above average shortstop. There is a lot of positional value there in his favor. On the other hand, he lacks a standout tool (defense is close but not quite), Additionally, while I am very happy with the way he performed last year, half a season does not wash away all the pre-draft concerns about whether his bat has another strong offense performance this season those concerns will be a distant memory.

      Franco definitely has his warts that have been hashed out here ad nauseam.and he has a much higher chance to to burn out than Crawford. But even at the .260-280 30 HR estimate if he can stay at least Aramis Ramirez level on defense I think Franco has a higher ceiling than Crawford or Biddle.

      If one think Biddle has more than just a remote chance as a #2 than I think Biddle would be #1 on this list. However, whatever, the reason, Biddle’s second half last year has to give one pause, especially with the higher injury risk for pitchers.

      I don’t think ranking Biddle and Crawford #2 and #3 is any disrespect for them. There is now true blue chip or even Top 50 prospect in this system. Each one has his worts, concerns and limitations.

      Like

  5. I went with Biddle because I think he is at least going to be a solid mid-rotation workhorse but has clear ace/near ace potential. I know because I saw him flash that potential – in person – on two occasions (actually three, including the Futures Game). He’s not without risks or warts, but the same could be said of Franco too (who I like). Agreed that Biddle, Franco and Crawford stand out as the clear top 3 prospects in the organization as of this date. Things could change very quickly next year, however, if some prospects take large steps forward. I’m hoping for a quick recovery from Roman Quinn – it would be nice if he could get in 3 months of playing this year – he still has a ton of skills.

    Like

    1. I would probably rank MAG 4th because he’s not young and we haven’t seen him pitch yet. Who knows?

      Like

    2. I think most of us are going to have the same top 3 in some order, with MAG #4. I have to take Franco #1 though after that season. He looked like a legit #3 or #4 hitter and those are very hard to find. I would agree that Biddle has a chance to be a #1 or #2 starter, which would elevate him to #1 on my list if true, but I don’t think its as likely as Franco. Hopefully, Franco and Biddle force their way into Philly before the summer is over. I agree we can’t know what to think about MAG and Quinn’s surgery has me very concerned as to his future. Crawford is very young and had a good month and hopefully will have a great start at Lakewood this year.
      Fyi – Morandini will be a coach at LHV this year, choosing to be closer to the majors.

      Like

  6. I’m surprised the conversation is splitting. I expected this to be a runaway for Franco.

    In my view he’s a clear step ahead of our other prospects. Crawford is still so far away that it’s hard to say what we have in him. A lot can go wrong between low A and the majors. Biddle struggled for the first time and many scouts give him a mid-rotation ceiling.

    Franco is nearly a full year younger than Biddle and they ended the year at the same level. And while Biddle struggled, Franco had one of the best seasons for any underaged hitter in A+/AA. And he plays a premium defensive position.

    Like

    1. I hear you (all good points) . . . . but, Franco has warts too. He is slow, he may have a tendency to put on weight, it’s not clear he can remain at third long term, his plate discipline is suspect, and it’s not at clear how well he can handle consistently good breaking stuff. I’m not being hypercritical – I think he’s a very good prospect – I’m just noting that it’s not quite the slam dunk you make it out to be.

      Like

      1. All true. That’s why he’s not a top-10 prospect in all of baseball. But I do think he’s a slam dunk in our system.

        Like

    1. Only your first vote counts. I have no clue why they created their interface to give you the voting options again, but only the first vote counts (I just tested it).

      Like

  9. I voted for Biddle. His floor right now is a #3. Im guessing he is a very solid #2. If I do the same for Franco, in three years he could be at 1st which to me drops his value down. So his floor right now is a solid 1st basemen. Ceiling, an allstar 3rd. Having these questions so close to MLB puts biddle in front of Franco for me.

    Like

  10. I see Franco as Number 1. I base my vote on the player’s chance to be a star player. I have Crawford #2. I do not see ace potential in Biddle, so I have him at 3.

    Like

      1. I think that will also somewhat reduce the temptation for foul play, as there is no immediate feedback and reaction from legit voters.

        Like

      2. GREAT IDEA! This should make the final count more representative of the voters’ true picks. Besides the reasons stated, it also prevents people from voting late and just picking between the 2 leaders, when they really want a third player. It is fine to vote late to wait to read the comments first. When does the poll close end each day?

        Like

        1. I am going to try to close it before going to bed (11 CST) and have the new one up early morning, but I can’t promise anything more than the new one will be up by 8:30 AM CST

          Like

  12. Wow. Guy hits .320 with 104rbi and 31hr’s at age 20 season and is not the clear cut #1 in this Org. I am in shock! As much as I like biddle and Crawford. Franco is #1 and it aint close.

    Like

    1. That was kinda my reasoning too. He had a fantastic year. Not a knock on anybody else, but those surface numbers, wow.

      Like

    2. I voted Franco #1 but he’s not without his question marks. His approach is a serious concern and he’s not a guy who is going to contribute much in other areas of his game aside from hitting.

      Like

    3. I feel the same way. The only way I could rank Biddle #1 right now is to wish away his current problems and assume Franco’s potential future problems will materialize.

      Like

    4. Franco comes in at number two for me. Defense counts and I have questions about Franco’s body type. He may have a few bigger, standout years than Crawford but it’s tough to imagine he would have comparable longevity. Plus, at 3rd base his bat will have to be compared to a higher standard and if he can’t add positive value with his glove, the bat would have to be even more productive.

      Bottom line: in terms of projecting career WAR Franco doesn’t compare to Crawford.

      Like

      1. I’m not sure how big a deal career WAR should be in evaluating a prospect. The team will control the first 6-7 seasons of these guys. That’s where the value lies. Beyond that, he’s either gone, or you are paying full FA prices to keep him. If we are evaluating based on WAR, I suggest using what we think the total WAR over the first 6 seasons is likely to be.

        Like

    6. His walk rate is a massive red flag…he’s definitely not a sure thing. 3.4% is way, way too low especially for AA. AAA in 2014 should be interesting when he gets to see more seasoned pitchers who live off of off-speed slop.

      Like

  14. This was tough. I went with Crawford, but I based that more on long term potential. Franco right now can help this team. I would also expect Franco to win this vote.

    Like

  15. I voted Franco. A fantastic season at a young age for league. Biddle is a legit prospect, but a hard hitting position player is worth more. Franco has the higher ceiling, also. I still have concern for Biddle’s physical condition. We know he was hampered by the pertussis and the foot problem. It looked to me as I watched him throw in two late season games that he had developed an arm problem. Hopefully not so, but that is the sort of thing that comes from pitching with a leg problem. For whatever reason, he left his last start early and was only soft lobbing the ball at the point he left the game in the second inning. It was really a scary thing to watch.

    Like

  16. Went with Crawford. He’s going to stick at shortstop and he already has a good command of the strike zone. I actually think he’s the least risky prospect in the system given his pedigree, athleticism, and feel for hitting.

    Like

  17. Late last season I would have gone with Crawford here, but it seems like scouts’ opinions of Franco have improved as time has gone on, so I went with Maikel. I hope he spends at least most of this year in AAA so we can get a better idea if his approach at the plate can be exploited, but for now his potential seems as high as almost anybody in the system.

    Like

    1. Not for nothing but if anyone else besides maikel franco is ranked #1. I will loose all credibility for this website and it’s followers. I know biddle or Crawford are the cute picks here. American 1st rders. In biddles case from philly area. But you are comparing a guy who has a chance to be 280-300 big league hitter with 30hr year in and year out. To to guys we are projecting to be avg mlb players. There is something wrong here!

      Like

      1. I don’t know a single scout who thinks Franco will hit .280-.300, and if he does that means he is swinging at everything and you are looking at a .320-.340 OBP. Realistically I would expect him to hit .260-.280 with 30 HRs, then you look at the defense and even if he stays at 3B it isn’t going to be adding value. Personally I don’t think Franco’s overall ceiling is that high, due to his limitations I think first division regular with a couple All-Star trips is his absolute ceiling, but average regular is the likely scenario.

        Biddle has huge swings of opinions that you can see in the comments above. I personally think Crawford has the highest ceiling because he is going to be a plus defender at SS. That on its own is a borderline starter, he has a great feel to hit and there could be some power there. That is a big time ceiling and is much more than average major league player.

        That all being said I have Franco #1, but I have heard compelling cases for the other two guys and I will not be surprised if a national writer takes either of the other two over him because the gap is small enough that if you don’t trust Franco to make major league contact and you love Crawford or Biddle’s potential they can flip spots.

        Like

        1. I tend to agree with your conclusion, because of the lack of defensive value, the mediocre at best plate discipline, and some concerns about the swing (I would add lack of speed, though it is a lesser factor beyond contributing to the lack of defensive value). (But always with the caveat that he’s a good prospect – just not quite the future superstar that some people have him penciled in as).

          But I’m curious why scouts (and you) don’t see him hitting .280 to .300 (eventually). Sure, there are concerns about him generating too many ground balls (which seems odd to me given the HR totals, but whatever), so we shouldn’t expect a sky high-BABIP. And he won’t have a K% of xx in the majors. But assume a K% of 14%, 30 HR a season, and even an average BABIP, that’s a BA of .292. Maybe the K% is still optimistic, but it would either need to be MUCH worse, and/or a significantly below average BABIP, for him to hit only .260. Why wouldn’t .280-.290 be a reasonable expectation? One reason why people are so excited about him is age/level – and while I don’t think that makes up for all the deficiencies, I do think it is a factor to consider in projecting his BA long term.

          (Note that Steamer projects ..263. That assumes fewer HR and a lower BABIP, but a K% of 13.9. But OTOH, that’s for his age 21 season – again, one would assume that there’s some room for growth there.)

          Like

          2. I can see the arguement for the the .280 BA if he keeps the K rate low (which I have huge doubts about). But even then I have him with a .300 BABIP (which may also be optimistic) at ~.280/.320/.470, which would give him the 7th highest BA, 14th highest OBP, and 6th highest slugging among qualified 3B, and this is all assuming he hits 30 HRs in a year. Lets say the hit tool prevents the power from playing fully and he BABIPs .290 with 25 HRs, then you are looking at a player around ~.265/.310/.440, now essentially you have Manny Machado (only 2 months older than Franco), with average or below defense and no running ability.

            For those making Aramis Ramirez comps, Ramirez has a career 7.3% BB% and 13.8% K%. That is going to be really tough for Franco to do without a huge change in his approach to the game.

            Like

            1. He’s 21… While you and I tend to agree on most things… we have a couple of fundemental differences of opinion, one of them is on Franco. I’m not as optimistic as some of this board but I’m far more on Larry’s side of the fence then yours for this one. Your arguements for a .260 hitter just don’t hold water. By his second or third year in the majors he’s more likely to hit .270-.290 then .250 to .270 and I have very few reservations about that. To be completely honest, you seem to have done the same thing to Franco as several posters here have done to Ruf in the past. In an effort to combat the overly optimistic, you’ve swung too far in the opposite direction.

              Like

            2. To be fair I did the same thing with Ruf last year (and by same thing I mean be honest about it). Over 73 games Ruf was replacement level by both fangraphs and baseball reference (0.1 fWar and -0.1 bWAR)

              Like

            3. To be fair to Ruf, he did have an offensive bWAR of 1.2 and fWAR of 1.1 in less than half of a season, which is slightly above major league average. It is the Phillies misguided attempts to use him away from his natural position and introducing him to not just one but two new positions in less than a year that have completely undermined his value. This is, of course, not to say his game is without flaws or that he will be major league average in the future.

              Like

            4. If the Phillies had started Ruf all year at first base, he could have provided quite a few WAH (wins above Howard) at pennies on the dollar…

              Like

  18. Crawford is my number one. And it’s not even close.

    J.P plays plus defense at a premium position and understands already that his glove is his carrying tool. He is smart, competitive and I believe he has an excellent work ethic. His offense is already decent. I think he will continue to develop a good plan at the plate. He’s athletic and should fill out to add more extra base pop. I don’t see him being a speed burner but he has enough speed to pressure a defense. I think he’s going to have a lot of success over many years. In terms of career WAR I think Crawford will far outperform everyone else.

    Like

    1. I looooove Crawford as a prospect. The only reason he is not yet higher on my list is that he’s still so early in his career and it’s not clear how he will grow up and mature – especially develop extra base power. But I agree that he (or perhaps Roman Quinn) has the highest ceiling in the minors and he could easily be the top prospect in the system by mid-summer if he turns it on the way I think he might.

      Like

  19. I can totally appreciate the votes for Biddle and Crawford. I’ve seen Biddle and its not impossible that he could become a very good mlb pitcher. Crawford, from all that I’ve read, looks to be a major league SS with a good middle infield bat. The difference for me is that Franco looks like a 3/4 hitter and that has value off the charts to me. We don’t have a single other prospect that I can confidently say that about (although we can hope for Cozens and Green). I rank players as 1) #1 starting pitcher and 2)#3/4 bat, in that order and I can’t see Biddle as future #1 or Crawford as a middle of the order hitter. Its also why we need to draft at #7 either a future #1 starting pitcher or a future #3/4 hitter.
    When do pitchers and catchers report?

    Like

    1. I think with the #7 pick you draft the best player available. Period. End of story. Same analysis every year. Without exceptions, with the sole caveat that if two players are about equal MAYBE you consider need. Other than that, this is how you end up missing generational talents, particularly with the number 7 pick.

      Like

        1. I see what you are saying now and I’m sure that’s often true, and that may generally be true of the first pick in the draft (and is certainly true if you are picking a pitcher in the top half of the first round – why pick a reliever in the top of the first round?), but I could see a very fine middle infielder or centerfielder (prototypical high OBP leadoff hitter with moderate power, and elite glove) being the best available pick at #7 even if the player did not have #3 or 4 upside.

          Like

  20. To me the top 3 are easy. You can put them in any order but it’s gotta be Franco,Biddle and Crawford. I think the real arguments begin at 4 or 5 depending on what you believe about MAG. You’re gonna see a wide variety of players come 4 or 5. I’m quite interested in how that plays out.

    Like

    1. Was fighting a respiratory infection (whooping cough) for much of the year. He is still 2 or 3 for me after Franco and maybe Crawford. Definitely has some command issues, but the stuff is there and he could be in Philly in the second half of 2014.

      Like

    2. I’m actually lower on Biddle then most on this board. He strikes me as most likely a #4 but possibly a #3 if everything breaks right.

      Like

  22. Crawford lower for me because I still can see average SS. It most certainly could be better and is likely not to be much worse. I do not see high plus rankings on him as a fielder and I do not think his fielding changes that much. SS is a difficult fielding position and I think think the ‘plus’ label is probably true for almost any ‘real’ SS prospect. All the ‘average’ guys end up part timers or elsewhere if their bat can carry.

    Crawford’s excellent showing might make me look foolish for underating him this early, but I do not see him as having any plus plus skills. However, a SS with plus fielding, hitting, and baserunning is still very valuable (and borders on Profar type profile). I like Franco, then Biddle, then Crawford due to proximity but all 3 are very close at the top.

    Like

  23. MAG is being penciled in as the #3 starter for the Big Leagues. No one else is close to that level. Without having any knowledge of whether he has that type of ability or not makes it hard to rank, but I’m going with him #1.

    Like

    1. That was my reasoning as well…his known upside as a supposed middle of the rotation SP made me put him at the top.

      I love JP Crawford immensely but I am a bit wary of a small sample size in rookie ball for his offensive upside. Some of you have hung out here long enough to remember all the hype Zach Collier got after his rookie ball debut as well as he was way above expectations and we all know how that turned out in the end. I suspect he’ll struggle a bit this year in Lakewood and he might end up as more of an average offensive SS than a superstar. Nothing wrong with that and his glove is his calling card so with average offense, he could very well be a 3-4 Win player long term. Here’s to hoping.

      On Biddle, I like him a lot even with the control problems. He had a rough year and 2014 should be very telling on how good he is long-term. He suffered through pretty much every setback a guy could have other than a major injury and was still standing at the end of the year. Pertussis hit him bad as did plantar fasciitis which likely affected his control. I still see him as more of a Randy Wolf clone than a #2 like he was projected originally. Nothing wrong with that as Wolfie was a very solid starter for years and he had a very nice MLB career. I’d probably have a 3 way tie for #2 in our system between Crawford, Biddle and…

      Maikel Franco…there are major red flags here with his approach and he’s never going to be a high average/high OBP guy. He should bring average defense at the hot corner and a legit power bat (30-35 HRs) if he develops as expected. That’s a damn good player even with those limitations and its a guy that could move across the diamond to 1B and still be a legitimate starter. Nothing wrong with that either.

      The top of our system might not have any blue chip sure thing guys but we do have 3 very interesting guys that should be MLB regulars for years and a complete enigma in MAG.

      I went with MAG though due to his floor and proximity to the majors.

      Like

      1. Yeah we all remember the multiple surgeries Zach Collier had on his hand and wrist if you see it know it still resembles a railroad yard and had that not have happened to him who knows he could have been starting centerfield last year and we could be ranking Trevor May in our top 30 instead

        Like

        1. I was referring more to his horrid 2009 where he was healthy, not the injuries that derailed him after that starting in 2010. He was already falling off the map well before he got injured.

          But yeah…

          Like

          1. fair enough, although I think he played poorly because of the wrist and hand problems but my guess and its only a guess is he or the organizations was hoping the rehab or some winter time off would fix the problem it did not, but I realize your point that we shouldnt get to excited over Crawford because of such a SSS in GCL

            Like

            1. Oh, we should be excited by Crawford…we should definitely be excited by him. He’s a very legit prospect. I’m just saying his bat might not be as good as it looked in rookie ball. Even with an average bat, he’s a very good to possibly elite prospect.

              My only reason for not having him at #1 is his distance from the Majors and his lack of full-season ball experience right now. This time next year he could very well be a Top 100 prospect overall and the best overall in our system if Franco has progressed to the Majors.

              Like

            2. Not necessarily disagreeing with your point, but Crawford is a consensus Top 100 prospect right now and you may see him in a Top 50 this year

              My prediction now, even if Biddle and Franco don’t graduate, is next year Crawford #1 and #7 overall pick #2 in the system

              Like

            3. I wasn’t aware that they already liked him as a Top 100…I thought he was still on the “honorable mention” list for the national Top 100 lists.

              Like

            4. Most top 1st round picks make lists and right now if you reranked the 1st round Crawford would be somewhere around 9 or so. I personally have him the 50-70 range right now. I know Keith Law and Sickels love him, the BA guys like him, and I have no clue what BP thinks.

              Like

    2. Well, I think the “penciled in” thing was back when they were going to pay him $40 million +, we haven’t heard much along those lines since then. He should still be considered a prospect, I think, but he’s near impossible to assign a rank to at the moment (though I expect he will naturally slot in at #4, simply because there’s such a wide separation between the top 3 guys in the system and the rest.

      Like

      1. Very true. The next best guys after the top 3 are either injured or yet to play, or both. Big, big questions on Morgan, Quinn, Watson, Knapp, Joseph, MAG and Encarnacion is a big unknown. Then you have Tocci, whose future physique is a big unknown and Pujols and Tromp who are big projection guys at this point. Those are the guys who should be basically filling out the top 15, along with Zach Green, Rupp and Guillon.

        Like

  24. It should be interesting to read how people will rationalize a position for MAG.
    By the end of 30, we might be exhausted by trying to find any gem within the rubble.
    Likely to be the worst list we’ve compiled since this exercise began.
    Spring and hope followed by reality.
    Onward!

    Like

    1. I guarantee the list this year is better then last year, yes there are not a lot of sure things at the back of the list but there are high upside prospects littering the back of the list

      Like

      1. The system has improved but not massively…figure we’re probably around #20 overall now in the Majors. Its been heading in the right direction for the past 2 seasons after Rube gutted it from 2009-2012 so there’s that. I’d love to see them really start investing money in scouting and their overseas programs now that they’ve got an immense new revenue stream.

        Like

        1. Preliminary ranking for me has them between 16 and 22. I have the Angels, Tigers, White Sox, Brewers, Yankees, Athletics, Braves, and Giants as definitively worst.

          I guarantee the system will look even better a year from now (even if Biddle and Franco graduate) because Crawford will be a year closer, the group of young players will be up a level, and they will add the #7 pick to the system. It could be even higher if some top players (Joseph, Mecias, Watson, Morgan, and Quinn) return well from injury.

          Like

      2. I’m not sure better this year than last. Last year a lot of guys looked a lot better than they do now: Morgan, Joseph, Quinn, Watson. Beyond that, Pettibone, Martin, Asche have graduated. That’s a good portion of last season’s top 10 and top 5. Biddle and Franco are still here. Franco looks better than expected, more questions on Biddle. We’ve added Crawford and Altherr and Zach Green have jumped up. The top relief prospects have graduated and Giles has been injured. Mecias has jumped up, but is now also injured.

        Like

        1. The possible breakout/comeback years for Valle, Gueller, Larry Greene, Gillies, James did not materialize.

          Like

        2. I know I say it is deep every year, but lets compare my Top 30 last year to where I am now in the process (a lot of movement ahead on the list). The 20-24 players on my list last year were Valle, Hernandez, Walding, Z. Green, Giles. This year those spots are currently occupied by Rupp, Watson, Giles, S. Gonzalez, and Drew Anderson. I would certainly rather have this years group. I am going to have some names high on my list that people will question, but the list goes really deep on exciting upside guys.

          Like

          1. The strength of a system is rarely the strength of its guys ranked 20-30. It lies mainly in the top 10 or even the top 3-5. So my big question to you is, which year’s top 10 was better at the time, last season’s or this year’s? Was it much of a difference. I’ll agree with you that we seem a little stronger than last year, but I don’t think better than number 20 in baseball. So much of last year’s top 10 strength was in guys who are hurt or flopped or graduated that I think it has to be a drag. I guess in large measure, how you rate the overall strength depends upon how much hope you hold out for guys like Joseph, Watson, and Quinn returning to solid top 5 status next year.

            Like

            2. A year ago the Top 10 according to BA was: Biddle, Quinn, Joseph, Pettibone, Morgan, Martin, Asche, Franco, Ruf, Tocci. This year it is Franco, Biddle, Crawford, MAG, Quinn (pre-injury), Tocci, Martin, Hernandez, Altherr, Severino (I personally have guys ranked higher than those back guys but that is a different story).

              The Top 4 are way better this year, you go from a back of the Top 100 guy and a borderline Top 100 guy, to what should be 3 Top 80 guys one of which is definitely Top 50. MAG has more upside than Pettibone, Martin is better than he was a year ago. I have always been down on Ruf and like Altherr better. I would easily take Asche over Hernandez, Tocci is better now than then, Franco was ranked too low last year and I think Severino is ranked too high this year. Overall this years Top 10 is much better, I also think the system is much deeper now then it was then.

              Like

    2. I agree with Art D. that this could be the worst list we’ve compiled. The system has been decimated by injuries, call-ups, and disappointments. Morgan, Joseph, Quinn and Watson drop a lot because of the nature of their injuries: Morgan because it is a shoulder, Joseph because he is a concussion-prone catcher, Quinn because his star potential is all about his speed, Watson has elbow and shoulder issues. Ruf, Pettibone, Asche, DeFratus, and Aumont were some of the call-ups. Joseph (before concussion), Valle, Greene, Aumont, Collier, and Gillies were some of the disappointments

      MAG would be #1 in my list if he were not coming off an injury. I kept hearing he might pitch late last year maybe even for the Phillies but at least in practice games in Clearwater, maybe Sep then maybe Oct but his debut was perpetually postponed and how we are waiting until February ST. I rank him 4th because of that, and almost 5th after Tocci, who I think has about a high a ceiling and about as much risk as Crawford.

      Like

  25. I pulled up the website and it lists a bunch of comments from mid-July as being the most recent comments. Anyone else having this problem?

    Like

  26. I think Crawford and Tocci have the highest ceilings, but can’t put either of them above Franco, Biddle and probably MAG at this time.

    Like

  27. Biddle for me. Thought long about it, even through the day today, and that’s where I have landed. For me, it comes down to the belief that the issues Biddle showed last year are correctable, or maybe better stated as “less likely to repeat”. He had a terrible health year, with none of it affecting his pitching long-term. He’s a true starting prospect, the curveball is for real, and his velo is just fine for a LHP. Scouting reports on him throughout the year were indicitive, from what I found, of a guy struggling just to be healthy, not someone who was injured in a baseball sense. With that, I add a plus to his 2013 line and cross my fingers he’s healthly going into 2014 with an eye on a September call-up.

    Franco had some issues with plate discipline last year, and that’s fairly scary when you’re talking about a RHB who’s supposed to hit for power. For me, I see something that makes me wonder if his platoon split will widen – his Reading BB Rate vs. RHP was 1.9%, per Minor League Central splits. That’s astoundingly low in a fairly reasonable sample, and to me, cause enough for concern to push him below Biddle. I’m hopeful we’ll see an adjustment by him, and a trend towards historical plate discipline, where he barely has a split – 6.3 and 7.2% BB rates in 2011-2013.

    I didn’t seriously consider Crawford ahead of Biddle and Franco, but he’s an easy #3 for me. I think I will then have MAG, then Tocci. Next week, Martin and Hernandez almost interchangeable at 6-7, then Altherr Dugan and Quinn in an order yet to be determined, with Seve G and Joseph just outside my top 10.

    Like

  28. Went with my heart, which said Franco, though my brain said, “Vote other and write in, ‘Whoever they draft with the #7 pick,'” just so I can boast how ahead of the curve I was with my talent assessment next year.

    Like

  30. I am in love with speed, and quinn has it. I just think this kid will prove to be a really good player, not at shortstop but in centerfield, where I believe he will land, I just believe there are a lot of question on everyone, and to me a guy with speed, like this kid has, really can become someone special. if he hits, which i believe he will.

    Like

    1. I tend to think his defensive issues started to affect him at the plate as has been known to happen. I agree that he could be a very good CF but given that his injury (achilles rupture) is one of those that could seriously jeopardize his speed long-term. He literally might never be that guy again. If for no other reason than that, I would personally drop him out of my own Top 10 for now until he can prove he’s healthy and the same guy he was before speed-wise.

      Like

  31. In a kind of related question, Where is it fair to think this year’s #7 pick would fall on this list? Top 5? would that be a fair expectation, or no?

    Like

    1. He should be probably in that range or, at worst, definitely in the 6-10 range. The #7 pick is usually a pretty elite prospect. Its in that range where its typically a 50/50 chance of them being a good MLB player. Some #7s have been pretty ridiculous…Kershaw comes to mind as a #7. Markakis, Matt Harvey, Tulo, Fielder and Mike Minor were all #7 in recent years too…of course, so was Matt LaPorta unfortunately.

      The #6 overall and #8 overall lists were also fairly impressive.

      Like

    2. When drafted, the #7 pick should be a top 3 or 4 player in the system. If he isn’t, the team messed something up.

      Like

      1. That is tough to say. MAG definitely won’t be in the #4 range next year. Either he will be in the bigs, a bust, or much farther down. But it also depends on what the other players do. If Franco and Crawford repeat what they did last year and Biddle looks like he did in the beginning of last year they would be tough to unseat. Tocci, Altherr, and Dugan would all have to have big years to pass such a high pick, but it is tough to know much about such a pick with only a short season. Thankfully, with the new signing rules we get at least that short season to evaluate.

        Like

      2. On that idea, where would Trey Ball rank in the Phillies system? His results were less than spectacular and he didn’t pitch much. I don’t know if he got injured or they just wanted to get him some rest.

        Like

        1. I would rank him behind Crawford, I didn’t think the gap was that large and I think Ball’s stock is slightly down and Crawford’s is up. As of right now, the top of next year’s draft appears stronger than this year

          Like

      3. It really depends upon how strong the farm is. The #7 guy should have a high ceiling, but ranking should be a combination of ceiling and probability. Some high ceiling guys, including Crawford, seem to have a high enough floor that they can have a reasonable probability on the day they are drafted, at least compared to others in their draft class. Still, especially for HS kids, probability goes up with proximity to the major leagues. It goes up a lot actually. Even high first round picks, think the infamous Jeff Jackson, will have their maximum rank on draft day and sink progressively as their careers advance. We’ve had a lot of first and second rounders like that. Other guys will improve as they progress up the farm. Franco is worth a lot more today than the day he signed. So was Asche last year. As you progress up the system, what was thought of you on draft day becomes less important and performance more important. Biddle was a lower in the first round pick than Crawford, but he has survived more levels, so if fully healthy he would be worth more today. Crawford has many tests to pass to get to AAA looking as promising as Biddle does today. For a system without a lot of great talent, Crawford ranks high on a prospect list. If we had had a solid first and second rounder each of the last 4 years prior to the Crawford pick, and signed one or two Franco-caliber Latin American guys each year, then Crawford might easily have to show what he can do at a higher level league in order to crack the top 5. Being more specific, if Larry Greene, Watson and Quinn had done as well as our scouts expected and both had stayed healthy they could all rank above Crawford, along with Biddle and Franco. They may or may not have quite as high a ceiling as Crawford, but more doubts would be removed as they would be closer to the bigs.

        Like

        1. Yes but if the question is where should the #7 pick rank in OUR system, the answer is clearly top 3 or 4. And I’m at a loss why you would use the Biddle/Crawford comparison against the high pick. Biddle had just about the highest BB rate as any EL starter in the last 10 years. Even if we don’t want to admit it on this site, that’s an enormous obstacle to overcome, much larger than a high draft pick like Crawford”s (who most scout’s love) lack of experience. Having a top 7 pick is a huge advantage, one we should be very excited about, as you get a guy with the sam e upside as most of our more advanced picks without the flaws.

          Like

  32. This year I agree with the consensus and am going Franco, Biddle, Crawford then MAG. I would have MAG higher if I were not worried about his health. Last year I had Biddle ahead of Franco (2-3 behind Ruf), but I dropped Biddle this year partly because I do not like his 5.33 BB/9. I appreciate how well he did despite his illnesses and hope they explain his control problems, but I need to see it. Crawford is just too inexperienced for me to rank ahead of a strike-out pitcher who is in AA.

    Like

  33. Like to see Adam Morgan appear on the list soon. I won’t vote for him for a few more rounds, but feel he should be in the discussion sooner rather than later–unless there’s been more I don’t know about his shoulder…

    Like

    2. He has not recovered his velocity yet. This puts him in the low to mid teens for me. Velocity will determine if he goes way back up or falls precipitously down.

      Like

      1. OK, are you basing the velocity on what we saw in August, or have you seen him pitch recently? I’m not sure he didn’t come back too soon, and I’m ranking based on what I saw in person last April. Certainly, he’s an injury risk now, and I’m not ready to vote for him yet–but I might before a couple on the list above… If there’s new information, I’ll be interested in it because I have Morgan penciled in for the IronPigs, and perhaps even the opening day starter.

        Like

Comments are closed.