Monthly Archives: December 2013

Rule 5 Draft Preview

Rule 5 Draft

No event in baseball attracts more attention for little flash than the Rule 5 draft.  Fans are constantly looking for the next Shane Victorino, when in reality you should be looking for the next David Herndon.  The draft represents a unique opportunity to add talent for “free” in a market where a middle reliever can get $1+ million in free agency.  I could list a ton of names here that the Phillies could pick but I give it a 5% chance that the Phillies actually pick any of them.  The Phillies do have two high picks in the draft they could use for upside flyers, or they could trade them for other minor leaguers who don’t need protection.

Notable Phillies Prospects: Brody Colvin, Seth Rosin, Anthony Hewitt, Perci Garner

Names Available: Junior Arias, Zach Thornton, Carlos Perez, Brian Moran, Ryan Tepera, Danny Burawa, Darrell Ceciliani, Brian Fletcher, Mike Freeman, Jae-Hoon Ha, Marcus Hatley, Marco Hernandez, Tommy Kahnle, Stephen Kohlscheen, Freddy Lewis, Matt Lollis, Matt Loosen, Kevin Munson, Hector Nelo, Angel Nesbitt, Boone Whiting, Omar Luis, Ronan Pacheco, Jarrett Parker, Tyler Kelly, Mike Freeman, Marcos Mateo, Alex Sogard, Brian Fletcher, Tyler Ybarra, Hector Nelo, Brett Eibner

Links/Previews:

I will add more links and names today as they come up

General Discussion – Week of 12-8-2013 – Winter Meetings Edition

Weekly Discussion

Brrr…Wintery. Perhaps we should gather around a stove of some sort.

Discuss.

Maikel Franco’s Contact

Franco, Maikel

There has been a lot written and said about Maikel Franco‘s swing over the course of the season.  There have been talks about the shape and length as well as how much power it is going to generate.  Overall scouts have questioned how the swing as a whole will translate to the next level.  Franco has big time raw power and he has elite bat speed and hand eye coordination.  He has demonstrated the ability to make contact, but the quality of that contact has begun to come into question lately.  The goal is to explore if that is true and what that deterioration in contact might look like.

Contact Type:

So the first question is what kind of contact is Franco making.  Here is a break down of his percentages across each level Franco played at this year (sample size of 228, 249, and 88  balls in play respectively).

Contact Type

The first thing that jumps out is the spike in ground balls in AA that coincided with a drop in fly balls.  The next thing is that outside of a spike in winter ball, his line drive rate is very low (for example the lowest LD% among qualified 3B in 2013 was Todd Frazier at 18.1%), given that line drives have the highest probability of being hits, that is troubling.  The decline in flyball rate is troubling as well because that is where the HR power is coming from.  Overall it is an indication that Franco is not making the best contact possible, but given that minor league ball in play classifications can be off lets look at some spray charts. Continue reading Maikel Franco’s Contact →

Phillies Trade Rasmussen and Kratz for Brad Lincoln

Transactions

Yesterday the Phillies made a small little trade that could end up being a small victory or it could be a net zero.

The Phillies shipped out Erik Kratz, who is a below average back up catcher with some pop and a good throwing arm, along with Rob Rasmussen (acquired for Michael Young) in exchange for Blue Jays reliever Brad Lincoln.

Rasmussen who I wrote about recently shows 4 averagish pitches from a really small frame.  He has an outside shot at being a #5 starter, but his most likely role is middle reliever or LOOGY. Continue reading Phillies Trade Rasmussen and Kratz for Brad Lincoln →

General Discussion – Week of 12-2-2013

Weekly Discussion

Non-Tender Deadline is today. This team probably shouldn’t let go of John Mayberry for nothing. If they eventually sign a backup CF, he should be tradeable, even if it is just to dump what will likely be a reasonable contract for a bench bat with pop, and they already have one 40-man roster spot available for a rule 5 guy if they find one. No harm in keeping him right now.

Bastardo has been discussed in the comments as a possible non-tender. I really don’t see it, unless he truly hurt Rube’s feelings over Biogenesis or something. Otherwise, he’s a real MLB bullpen arm, and there’s no reason not to keep him.

Frandsen is a bench guy who can hit a little and he will make almost nothing in 2014, even if he goes all the way to arbitration and wins. Kendrick is your #3 or #4 starter next year. In a perfect world, you wouldn’t need to keep a questionable arm like him, but there’s no depth to let him go and he’s been very durable, if nothing else. And Revere is a no-brainer – he will be tendered. 

I predict five tendered contracts. In an ideal world it would be two, Bastardo and Revere, but as we all know, the 2014 Phillies will be far from ideal.

Discuss.