Rule 5 Draft Preview

Rule 5 Draft

No event in baseball attracts more attention for little flash than the Rule 5 draft.  Fans are constantly looking for the next Shane Victorino, when in reality you should be looking for the next David Herndon.  The draft represents a unique opportunity to add talent for “free” in a market where a middle reliever can get $1+ million in free agency.  I could list a ton of names here that the Phillies could pick but I give it a 5% chance that the Phillies actually pick any of them.  The Phillies do have two high picks in the draft they could use for upside flyers, or they could trade them for other minor leaguers who don’t need protection.

Notable Phillies Prospects: Brody Colvin, Seth Rosin, Anthony Hewitt, Perci Garner

Names Available: Junior Arias, Zach Thornton, Carlos Perez, Brian Moran, Ryan Tepera, Danny Burawa, Darrell Ceciliani, Brian Fletcher, Mike Freeman, Jae-Hoon Ha, Marcus Hatley, Marco Hernandez, Tommy Kahnle, Stephen Kohlscheen, Freddy Lewis, Matt Lollis, Matt Loosen, Kevin Munson, Hector Nelo, Angel Nesbitt, Boone Whiting, Omar Luis, Ronan Pacheco, Jarrett Parker, Tyler Kelly, Mike Freeman, Marcos Mateo, Alex Sogard, Brian Fletcher, Tyler Ybarra, Hector Nelo, Brett Eibner

Links/Previews:

I will add more links and names today as they come up

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

45 thoughts on “Rule 5 Draft Preview”

  1. I don’t know to many names on this list but one I do know is Tommy Kahnle with a MiLB k/9 near 12 I’m taking a flier! Most of his seasons he had an outstanding WHIP struggled a little with that in Trenton last year but his stuff is the real deal and only 24 years old.

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    2. His numbers look good to me. He walks a bunch, but his H/9 is only 6.0 and his WHIP is respectable. Also, his HR/9 is just 0.3.

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  2. I would expect either; 2 pitchers to be taken and left to battle out for a bullpen spot (or maybe longshot starter), or 1 pitcher and 1 outfielder who would compete with Mayberry for last OF/roster spot. There are a couple of names out there that were listed as top prospects on the list but may have had down year in 2013 and/or 2012.

    Of the Phillies left unprotected only Rosin I think would be a potential true loss.

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  3. Great fun for the growing number of armchair GM’s who can now research these castoffs from other teams… Do Phillies need to remove a player from 40man to make two draft picks?

    Guys I’ve heard of/interest in:
    Tommy Kahle was rumored to be the return for M.Young if he went to Yankees. He will have company with a high BB rate in the Phillies org.

    Omar Luis is interesting since they could get a guy who signed a $2.5M bonus for $50K. I figure a team like Astros (still terrible) would consider it worthwhile to stash him for a year then use 3 option years to develop him while the Phillies would not.

    Carlos Perez option is exactly why I did not like the Neives signing. Perez could be taken then worked out with Rupp and a Vet on a minor league deal (Marson) to get that backup C role. However, if the Astros do not want him what does that say? He did have great caught stealing numbers.

    Always good to go after lefty pitchers since they may have LOOGY potential.

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      1. In order I’d probably release:

        Horst first – middle reliever is the best he can be
        Stutes second – with arm trouble not sure what he has left and is only a FB/slider guy
        Garcia third – probably like him less than either Stutes or Horst but he has 3 option years left and might have more upside but was horrid in the majors
        Savery fourth – actually pitched okay, think he has more upside than Horst but only 1 option left
        Valle fifth – I still hope that he can get a bit better at only 23yrs old and I think Joseph is done so Rupp at AAA and Valle at AA.

        I’d also like to trade Frandsen and Mayberry.

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  4. I would take a shot on Omar Luis (Yankees) and/or Zach Cates (Cubs).
    As for the Cubbies…one good turn deserves another.

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  5. Best name and birth place:
    Jae-Hoon Ha from Jin Ju City Korea.
    And he hits righthanded with pretty decent speed and glove fro a corner.

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    2. Still better. Ng is the Cantonese name. The Mandarin equivalent is Wu. So, Wu, Ha, Oh are coming to the plate in the bottom of the seventh.

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        1. a bit off topic – but any reference to Vin Scully is a good reference in my book. Even at 86, he is still a joy to listen to. Everything is so effortless.

          The following is taken from the interweb:

          “That was until Chin-Lung Hu, a native of Taiwan, joined the team at the beginning of September. Pronounced “who,” Hu’s first hit as a Dodger was a homer in a game with the San Diego Padres. Touching first base was all that was required, not visiting it. ”

          removed superfulous info…

          “They say that three’s the charm. Game three. The Dodgers were still in Arizona, and voila! Hu gets his first single. Scully took a deep breath and said, “OK everybody. All together … Hu’s on first!””

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  7. With the amount of injuries that are possible in so many different positions on our team, is it really possible that we can pick a hitter with high upside that we hope to hide on our 25 man roster? Unfortunately isn’t it pretty realistic that our entire 25 man roster will be counted on to play in a fair share of games?

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    1. I agree that Phillies are not a team that would ‘stash’ a position player. However, Jarret Parker is interesting. Massive strikeout machine, even worse than Howard but he still maybe be no worse than Nix.
      Parker is mostly a RF but has played CF a little bit. Has some power, speed, and does get walks. Was a 2nd Rd college guy. Could he be the lefty version of Mayberry?

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        1. Good point. Pretty similar. Parker is just more ‘inventory’. Possible distinction is that Parker could play some CF.

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    2. I don’t think the injury possibility prohibits stashing a Rule 5 position player. Last year we carried M&M at the same time for much of the season — both were totally useless with the bat and Martinez isn’t all that good defensively. The stashed guy basically plays just the remainder of the game in which the injury occurs and then you bring up someone from the minors and jet them to wherever the next game is. If the stashed guy can run and play adequate D, then he can be either a pinch runner or an emergency defensive replacement. Any team willing to go with both M&M should be comfortable stashing a Rule 5 pick.

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      1. Why not just put the player on DL a few times during the season….and then just forfeit next years pick for trying to circumvent the rules of the system, ala Cubs

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        1. Actually no problem at all putting him on the DL for 62 games. Also, you can put him there all season as the Cubs did. There problem came when they sent him back to the minors the following year, before he had served his 90 days in the bigs. Had they kept him in Chicago in year two, there wouldn’t have been a rule violation.

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  9. Hey Matt – I have to admit being somewhat perplexed by the decision not to protect Rosin. Seems like an easy guy to draft as a long reliever (thinking along the lines of Herndon). Any thoughts as to why the Phils chose not to protect him and are you in the same group as me who thinks this may have been a bad decision?

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    1. From reading other websites about the possible Rule5 guys, Brody Colvin was mentioned more than Rosin.

      I think my current rankings from unknown scouting reports on the web:
      Omar Luis – $2.5M roster spot
      Tom Kahnle – power closer
      Boone Whiting – probably only SP available
      Jarret Parker – toolsy OF
      Carlos Perez – backup C
      Zack Thornton – setup guy ROOGY

      Tyler Kelly – OBP INF
      Buddy Baumann – lefty killer

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      1. From what I have read on Boone Whiting, just seems like another translation of Tyler Cloyd.

        And I believe there are other starters on the list above the comments.

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  10. i vote for mateo, hatley, sogard, or eibner. Mateo from the cubs has been looking really good from reports in the dominican. hatley is 6’5 with a plus fastball, sogard has 2 plus pitches and lets pray he knows where they will go, and eibner is a centerfielder with a good power/speed combo. scouts were worried about his ability to hit for contact, but late this season he made a mechanical change to his swing and his hit tool bumped up. Worth a look on any of the 4, especially because Amaro will end up sending them back in spring training so that he has room to bring back eric bruntlett.

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  11. Picks are in – Phils get Kevin Munson from DBacks. Mets took Seth Rosin. If the Phils are convinced Rosin cannot start, then it’s a reasonable if not advantageous swap in my eyes. Kind of a bummer to lose Rosin for nothing, but I won’t cry about it, and of course, he may be back.

    AAA portion of the draft – Phillies pass. Lose SS Jonathan Roof to Boston.

    AA portion of the draft – Phillies pass. No one selected from Phillies.

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  12. Ybarra and Pacheco both look like possible loogy types, Kohlscheen and Kahnle look like decent arms worth looking at, and Freeman looks like an infield utility guy with speed. I don’t know if they’ll take 2 though and drop someone else from their 40 man roster. I don’t see them dropping Horst, Savery or Stutes and certainly not Garcia who actually has a chance to make the team. I could see the Phils trading Mayberry but they’ll need someone back to take that 4th OF spot and I don’t see anyone in Rule 5 qualified for that spot but who knows. I could see them losing Rosin and Colvin.

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  13. If my ears did not deceive me, someone selected Russell Wilson in the minor league portion. yes. that Russell Wilson

    Phillies Jonathan Roof also selected (by Boston, I think?)

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