BA NYPL Top 20: Zach Green #4 and Dylan Cozens #9

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Baseball America released their top 20 New York Penn League prospects today http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2013-new-york-penn-league-top-20-prospects-with-scouting-reports/.  Williamsport third baseman Zach Green came in at #4 where there is concern about the strikeouts but the power is immense and they give him 70 grade raw power.

Williamsport RF and 2012 second round pick Dylan Cozens was rated #9.  BA also gave him a 70 on the raw power, but that he struggles against offspeed pitches.  Scouts like the bat speed and think that the swing will play at higher levels.  Scouts still think that he is a first baseman down the road but he can handle right field fine for now.

More info to come.

 

 

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

66 thoughts on “BA NYPL Top 20: Zach Green #4 and Dylan Cozens #9”

  2. Wonder if BA would put Cozens in their top 500 high school list now. Leaving out a player for off-the-field issues was a petty and unprofessional move.

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      1. Yes I agree we need to get over it but these are grown men holding grudges on kids! It is unprofessional I agree and no one really knows the whole story so just stick to evaluating the player. Imo

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    2. No, it’s not petty and unprofessional. Off the field issues have a real impact. They have aborted many a career. If the analysis is that the off the field issues, and really the bench and locker room aren’t all that far off the field, are likely to be a severe problem going forward, then that has to be incorporated into the analysis. It’s not like Cozens was a slam dunk prospect without the off the field issues. He was a football player trying to play baseball and without a lot of baseball experience. In all sports, many teams have made a player’s character a big part of their evaluations. Coachability is viewed as very important, as is pulling together for the good of the team and work ethic. Hitting your coach is a huge red flag. A fair number of Phillies farmhands have been suspended for significant parts of a season by the Phillies for not following team rules. A lot of these seemingly very promising guys, based on tools and performance, have simply not been the same since. I cite Garcia and Gillies as two prime examples. Other minor leaguers, like the dude that Hamels ran around with in the minors, have been outright released for disciplinary reasons. The off the field issues are and should be a factor in evaluating guys coming into the draft.

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      1. Cozens never hit his coach! He and another team mate got into in a pushing match no punches were thrown,coach over reacted and yanked Cozens backwards throwing him down on the ground and then yanked him back up! Coach was a former minor league pitcher that never made it in the big’s ,6’4″ 240 no wimp! Cozens pushed the coach after being yanked up and the over reaction by that coach! Both coaches were fired a year later.This whole incident was way over exaggerated ! Bitterness over transferring to cross town rivalry !

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      2. Cozens is not a football player learning to play baseball. He played football for the first time in his life as a senior in high school.

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    3. Unprofessional?

      Look, even stat oriented people like myself acknowledge the importance of “make up” in a prospect’s success. The difficulty is in identifying good/bad make up. Fairly clearly in this case BA and other skeptics were wrong in retrospect. But certainly off the field incidents CAN be an indicator of poor make up, and often are. Doesn’t mean you avoid those prospects entirely – and, if your scouts feel confident that the off the field stuff is exaggerated/irrelevant/fixable, or some combination thereof, taking a chance on that type of prospect can yield significant dividends. But taking that kind of stuff into account is hardly “unprofessional.”

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      1. I agree on your overall point that makeup is important. But I do think that the media, fans and maybe even front offices have a tendency to judge kids overly harshly and to over-interpret minor lapses as evidence as deeper character deficiency. The most extreme version of this comes when you get some report from a scout or a national prospect writer who will say something to the effect of, “I didn’t like his body language on the field,” or whatever. I think we got one report like that about Franco this year. I’m like: the kid is 19 years old, and you are a grown man who watches minor league baseball for a living. Who’s got the maturity issue here?

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        1. I agree. But I do think that the specific reports about Cozens were in the realm of something that could have raised legitimate questions.

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          1. Plus, as Allentown said, it’s not like there weren’t performance-related concerns with cozens either. The pick was a bit of a risk either way but, so far at least, it looks like one that is paying off. I have high hopes for him.

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            1. Phillies made a great pick! Cozens played in every summer league baseball program through out his high school .Any one that has a kid playing in high school sports knows how demanding the schedule is especially baseball not to mention the summer heat! Cozens played three sports that summer year leading into his senior year .He looked like a gray hound 6’6″ 220 pounds.He played baseball,basketball and football that summer ! Keith Law said he (heard) that he put on 50 pounds in one summer. How is that possible? Cozens went on to earn 1st team all state in football never playing before ,and 1st team All American in baseball.He probable would have earned All State in basketball his senior year also but choose not to play. We talk about character in our kids, how about the character in our coaches,they’re suppose to build character,not tear our kids down! The Cozens family choose to transfer and move on instead of pressing charges against his former bully coach.The coach could have shown some character and stuck up for Dylan, when all the negative press blogs came out on how this big kid hit his coach ! That’s a punk ass coach !

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            3. Thank you Mr Cozens for your side of the story, of course it would be interesting to hear the coaches side too.

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            4. Well both coaches were fired and Dylan got drafted 2nd round and had just about every team in the Pac 12 conference wanting him to play football . I think that says something about his character. Never played football before his senior year! Ask those coaches about their observation and the coaches at Chaparral High school and east valley tribune
              where he was named player of the year!

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          2. Yes, there’s a difference between hitting some guy in a bar fight (a la Hamels) and hitting your coach. Although, to be perhaps overly fair, we really don’t know what the hell happened there. I’m not exactly sure where the punching his coach thing came from, but if you read the comments of this blog post, it seems like there was something more complicated going on with the team (and no one, even the Cozens critics on this post, seems to mention him punching the coach, just something more like an angry confrontation that led to him being voted off the team). As for the PED stuff, he’s getting tested regularly now.

            http://blogs.evtrib.com/varsityxtra/2012/06/06/a-behind-the-scenes-look-at-dylan-cozens-and-the-mlb-draft/

            Anyway, I agree that where there’s smoke there’s often fire. But let’s remember: this is stuff that happened during his SOPHOMORE YEAR of high school, in other words, when he was around 16, nowhere near an adult. And who knows–maybe getting out from under the influence of what looks to be a very involved ex-athlete father is the sort of thing that helps a entitled kid mature? Although I fully recognize I’ve just engaged in the same low-information character speculation that I just argued we should avoid.

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            1. I’m certainly not arguing that this is something that is of continuing significance. Whatever happened is in Cozens’ past. The Phillies did their own investigation and decided it wasn’t serious enough to pass on him in the early rounds. My point is that it most certainly is not unprofessional for BA or any other pundit/blogger/ranker of prospects to consider off-the-field and other character issues, since character has a big role in who succeeds and who fails to develop.

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      2. Its unprofessional, when its based on BS blog’s and not the actual facts ! Here you have someone like Mr.Allentown1 making BS statements,where he obviously doesn’t know the facts,stating Dylan wasn’t a slam dunk and he was a football player and not a baseball player .And the off the field actually took place on the field. There are no character flaws with Cozens ! There’s a great story on Dylan Cozens and what he accomplished and his true character!

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          1. Off the field actually happened on the field. This sounds like it might be a female writing, they obviously don’t understand the saying “off the field”.

            On a side note a players make up and character are HUGE when looking at a player. I remember in high school our CF was being look at by the phillies (ironically). He ended up being benched for an off the field issue on a day that a phillies scout came to see him. The scout asked the coach why he wasn’t playing and the coach told him the reason (what happened off the field), the Phillies never looked at him again. Granted he wasn’t a 2nd round talent (not a 40 round either) more like 10-15round pick (ended up playing at WVU). Anyways another example of how character and make up matters.

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        2. You are obviously too close to the situation to be objective. So we shouldn’t then make anything of the fact that Cozens was benched for multiple games this season by his manager? Regardless of how minor or serious, there continue to be some character concerns. Call it being a “hot head” or whatever, but it still goes to makeup and character. Hopefully he continues maturing and these issues become non-existent and a non-issue.

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          1. There are a lot of reasons to bench a player other than character issues. Maybe he was exhausted or sick. Maybe they wanted to get someone else some time. Loads of reasons.

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            1. He was benched for yelling at an umpire during a game (you can check with Mitch Rupert if you want). Certainly it is not rare for this to happen in the minors with any player and it doesn’t mean it will be a trend, but it did happen.

              There are also different levels to makeup and guys who can be hot heads on the field is not always a bad thing, but at the major league level you can’t do anything that is going to force you off the field and hurt your team.

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        3. Legit, yelling at people on this board aren’t going to change what was written in the past. It was a documented fact that he had SOME SORT of altercation with his coach. BA decided to leave him out of their top 500. Phillies fans, understandably so, are going to DEFAULT to the trust the opinion of experts until performance on the field replaces it. So far, he has done very well and I haven’t heard one negative comment about his character from the team or scouts. I don’t think anyone is going to ding him NOW on what happened before. But, it wasn’t unproffesional for BA to leave him off their top 500. There have been A LOT of great talent that flamed out due to character issues. It seems like Dylan will be fine.

          P.S. Girlfriend or sister? I’m guessing female and with a name like “legit” I’m guessing under the age of 30.

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          1. Hey Joe, nobody yelling hear! Tired of hearing about character issues,you people need to let it go! The Phillies said they looked into it and did their home work . Look that up its well documented. The Rangers also did their home work, Dylan visited both Rangers and the Phillies the week end before the draft ! The Yankees were also interested in Dylan. So what does that say about BA top 500 list ?There’s no doubt that character plays a huge factor in ranking ! I think BA didn’t know that much about Dylan because he didn’t play his junior year. His coach didn’t help either, by not posting his stat’s with maxpreps during the season! .He did managed to earn 1st team and second team all american and maxpreps player of the year, along with all of his football accomplishments! You ladies are beating a dead horse here ! Nobody is denying that hitting,pushing are what ever with a coach would throw up a red flag! That’s why we need to have all the facts and then base our opinion ! The facts are out there,believe what you want ! Off the field on the field that’s a no brainer ! There were no off the field issues! He was just voted 9th on the top 20 Penn League by the team managers, that’s a huge complement. If BA based their ranking on Dylan’s character, they got it wrong! ! Dylan’s a (legit )baseball player! Football was a back up plan or a way to have a full ride scholarship instead of a partial for baseball . Smart !

            PS legit is a phrase not some girls name D.A. No 30 year old female here Joe, more like a 300 pd Gorilla !

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            1. Yes, doing a million !!! in a post is yelling. The only person beating a dead horse is yourself. We have stated that the Phillies checked out Dylan’s character and found it acceptable and we have all accepted that. What we have not accepted is your going back to beat the dead horse of his pre-draft ratings and your contention that character issues are beyond the realm of what should be considered in arriving at the ratings. All of us are glad that Cozens is a Phillies prospect, happy that he got named #9 prospect in the NYP league, and wish him the best going forward. Your referring to the posters on this thread as ladies is a little obnoxious as is your general attitude.

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            5. Hey Mr.allentown ,you’re the one that started this whole topic defending the BA, these are your words, ( It’s not like Cozens was a slam dunk prospect without the off the field issues. He was a football player trying to play baseball and without a lot of baseball experience.) What the hell allentown ,,where did you come up with this BS ! And I’m responding to joe’s previous comments. Where do you get your information you need to research better,instead of jumping on the character band wagon !

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  3. Two high school kids drafted last year, playing against this years top college draft picks, not too shabby! Green and Cozens should be #4 & #5 ,cozens played 6 less games and 25 less AB’s than Green where Cozens started out slow but finished strong! What if ?

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    1. Green has a little bit better defensive profile. If Cozens has to move to 1B his options are a little more limited. I don’t think that move is imminent, but Green does look like he can be an above average 3B (though I still do not dismiss Walding who is even better on defense though has not shown much of anything on offense).

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  4. I think they really seem to undersell Cozens athleticism. He is a former linebacker and pretty fleet of foot for a big man. He will lose some of it but he will never be Franco slow. I think Cozens can stick in the OF.

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    1. I think the decision on moving him will depend if he has good instincts as an OF. It appears his arm is sufficient and I think he will stay at least an average runner.
      Dom Brown has great athleticism but no instincts so he is still a below average defensive player.

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    2. I’ve seen Franco play several times (8-10 games) and he’s not a snail by any means. Once he gets going I’d say his speed is average, it’s more so his quickness that is lacking. He’s slow getting out of the box and with him jumps but again once he is moving he isn’t what the slow is meant to describe. I mean I’ve seen him go 1st to 3rd (and 2nd to home) a few times without issue.

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      1. I had the same reaction seeing him in person. I got to see one of his two triples and he got to 3B in reasonable time — he did not look like a slower catcher going around the bases, or like Ruf. Since he only had 2 triples, obviously not a speedster.

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        1. That is exactly why, and not out of the realm of possibilty, that he can be patrolling LF at the Bank someday, if they decide that Asche is the guy at third and Howard fulfills his contract in its entirety.

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  5. Oh, would it be if Cozens were right-handed.
    With the “logjam” at 3rd base now, Green seems like he could end up in LF…for that power righty bat. Maybe after they see how he does at Lakewood in ’14. 70 power is only one notch less than the best possible hit/power number.
    If the 3rd base situation seems fixed at the MLB level it should be a no brainer to check out Green in the OF…soon.

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    1. If Asche/Franco/Green all develop as good MLB 3B, there will be trades attempted. All of these guys have greater value as 3B than as OF/1B. That is not to say that this full value can be harvested in a trade, but the Phillies should certainly try to do so. Just moving guys down the defensive ladder because they are blocked is not a good idea. A good bat at 3B is not necessarily a good enough bat in LF, A good fielder at 3B is not necessarily a good fielder in the OF.

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      1. +1. You never move guys based on what the major league roster MIGHT look like 4-5 years into the future. By that time, as you correctly say, he could have significantly more valauble as a 3B trade piece than as a LF in a Phillies uniform.

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        1. I disagree. What should be considered first is what help he could offer to the Phils, not what he’d be worth to another team in a trade. We ALL know how bereft of right-handed power hitting the org is from top to bottom. Now bordering on desperation, no?

          His value to the near future lineup would be supplemental to that of Franco. The two of them would greatly relieve the pressure of an almost all lefties lineup.

          You may note that it was myself that suggested almost a year ago that Franco would best serve the Phils by playing 1st base with Asche at 3rd. Lo and behold, that seems exactl;y what the FO has in mind by playing him at 1st in the last part of this season. So my thinking seems advanced beyond others in that case. Here, too.

          Franco MAY be more “trade valuable” as a 3rd baseman, but the Phils don’t care about his value to OTHER teams–only to their own lineup, nor should they be. At 1st base in the lineup he would add that righty bat w power and keep Asche at 3rd.

          The best possible use of a player is how he can aid the lineup or staff of their own team. Having Green in LF allows him, Asche, and Franco to be in the lineup together.

          Grren to and for the Phillies..in the .outfield makes the most sense. Like Franco at 1st base.

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    2. Why not move Green to SS? He played there in HS and some in the GCL last year.

      I know, he will be a poor defender at SS so I am just kidding. He does need to focus on hitter and not worry about defense. He is years away so no reason to move him until he hits in AA.

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  6. Interesting that they give them the same grade on raw power. I think we’ve seen other reports that suggest Green’s power was more like a 60 than a 70, so this is positive.

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    1. I think Mitch Rupert has said that Cozens has more raw power, but Green gets his to play more in games.

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      1. I wasn’t surprised to see Cozens get a 70 power. I was a touch surprised to see Green get a 70. I think I told someone else today I had Green at 60. Cozens made a simple adjustment toward the end of the year which included getting his front foot down quicker, and I think he was seeing the ball better. If it’s truly made a difference (and it sounds like he’s making noise early in FIL), I look forward to seeing the power numbers of 140 games next year.

        But Lakewood is a place where home run hitters go to die. If Cozens and Green could be 20-25 apiece next year, I think that’d be a great sign.

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  7. Does anyone have the ability to cut and past the scouting report on Green and Cozens for those of us who do not have a subscription to BA?

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    2. Here is some stuff from the Q&A

      Mark (Frederick): Zach Green’s K rate is worrisome. Is it a mechanical flaw or pitch recognition? And is his power enough to carry him to the upper minors?

      Aaron Fitt: Some guys just swing-and-miss a lot but still provide value because of their power and ability to draw walks and defense; I think Green could fall into that category. Right now he can be vulnerable against good breaking balls, but that’s not anything too unusual for his age. One NY-P manager said he thinks Green could be a Troy Glaus-type down the road, and I think there’s a chance for that. The power is legit; I’m not terribly worried about the strikeouts, largely because he also draws walks. I worry more about guys that strike out a ton without walking. And I think he’ll boost that walk rate as he matures.

      Scott (Philadelphia): Did any other Crosscutters garner consideration, maybe Andrew Knapp?

      Aaron Fitt: Knapp would be the only other guy, and everyone I talked to was pretty lukewarm on him — one guy called him “generic,” and that kind of captured the overall sentiment. He’s got some feel for hitting, but he has a long way to go behind the plate, and he spent about two-thirds of this summer as a DH.

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      1. here is the para phrase version …

        still has a chance to an impact hitter thanks to 70 raw power.even if he is a high SO player because he draws walks

        can be a quality defender, plus arm, athletic, good actions. needs work/reps to be consistent especially with finishing off plays. potential to be above average 3rd.

        Great makeup, hard worker, decent speed (for a big guy)

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      2. If Green develops into Troy Glaus (sans steroids), I think everyone would be happy with that development.

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  9. I wasn’t expecting such high rankings for these two. The chatter during the year seemed to focus a lot on the negatives, despite the performance, especially with Green. It seemed that every time Green’s HR totals got mentioned by one of the scouting services, it came with the caveat that he had a lot of holes in a long, slider-speed swing and was rough defensively. Barring further unexpected developments, this will definitely affect my rankings and expectations going forward.

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  10. I’m a little surprised that Green is ahead of Cozens. I know he had a fantastic year, but there are too many red flags.

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    1. If the power is legit,he will be carefully tended to along the way up the levels. You can’t teach power very much. He is 19 or so with 4 levels ahead of him before the bigs and in that time chances are good, if he isn’t Hewitt, he will learn about those breaking pitches..,.because he has a decent eye enough to take walks instead of swinging out of the strike zone. Red flags turning GREEN!

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    2. I’m not, I think the two really are neck-and-neck. I’m guessing the defensive profile is what is going to push Green ahead of Cozens on most lists. I think we’ll be having this argument for a few years until the advanced pitching they see kind of separates them a little bit. And the disagreement is over what appears to be two impact bats. Not a bad discussion to have to have.

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      1. As it is with nearly every position prospect, its all about the hit tool. Especially since they show power potential, can they hit enough for it to play in the majors.

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