I haven’t had a chance to really write anything recently (though there is a Zach Green piece in the works), and I likely won’t do another mailbag for a week or so, so I thought it might be nice to have an informal thread to ask specific questions you are looking for answers from me (though anyone with a good response feel free to jump in). If there is anything that does not fit into a quick response I reserve the right to add it to the next mailbag or write a full response column to it.
My only request is that you start a new post for each new question and make sure that your replies are in reply to the original question so that it keeps this as clean as possible.
Phuture Phillies 
I promised Twitter they could ask questions and I will post them here for everyone to answer.
Schmolk @SchmolkieSays
@Matt_Winkelman for the Q&A – who was/is your most improved prospect from the offseason?
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To my mind, the only guy in the system who has taken a huge step forward is Maikel Franco. Agreed?
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Kelly Dugan? I think he has taken a huge step and now has promise of being at least a 4th outfielder at MLB level, if not an everyday OFer.
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I actually am going to give two answers here:
The guy to make the biggest improvement in their tool set is Severino Gonzalez because of the FB jump and the polish against better hitting
The guy with the biggest improvement in stock is Kelly Dugan who has gone from maybe a 4th OF to looking a lot like he could be an average regular in an OF corner
I don’t really factor Franco into the most improved discussion because I frankly don’t see anything that has changed. He is doing it at a higher level but I am not as high on him as others here and this frankly the exact same player (at least the Hi-A version of him) that he was to end 2012.
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Gonzalez is a good one. As for Franco, damn, I think he’s taken a huge leap forward (doing well for a half season at Lakewood is a far cry from dominating high A and double A), but that’s just my view. Dugan has certainly progressed and improved his stock. Watson and Perkins are other candidates, as is Zach Green.
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Other guys I thought about (in addition to your list) were Pujols and Grullon because there is a big leap actually playing professional baseball, Asche because he looks like a competent major leaguers, Yoel Mecias even though TJS kind of sucks, and Cameron Rupp who may not be a sexy prospect but definitely a really useful one.
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I think one could also list Tromp and Zach Greene
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I want to see more of Tromp (in general) before I say anything about his profile going forward. To this point his entire career has been essentially small sample size. Green was listed by catch, and is definitely an improved player.
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By the end of the season I’m hoping that we could seriously consider HMart on the back end of the most-improved list.
I like your selections Matt. Franco has had a great season, no doubt. But I still see a below-average hit tool. Still, .260ish with 20-25 hrs in a RH bat would be a nice fit for the big club
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I saw somewhere a scout was quoted as saying Watson had top of the rotation potential with more velocity starting to come, with his already plus curveball, pretty good control and command, and his periphrials suggesting he’s pitching better then his era, do you agree with the scout? Do you think he has TOR potential?
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I have a hard time putting that kind of label on him until I see an at least average changeup. It is the type of player you want to start with for that kind of projection, but without the third pitch developing it is more a #3 than a #2 type ceiling.
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One of the Phillies huge problems is the bullpen. Assuming that they know how to develop a player (which I do not believe they do), a pitcher with two really effective pitches is all you need in the bullpen. The Phillies do not have those players right now.
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Where does the 17-year-old German outfielder Julsan Kamara fit in the 2014 plans?
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Julsan should be stateside by spring 2014 (as soon as classes end). He will likely miss a large chunk of Spring Training and will be in the GCL for the 2014 season. He will be very similar to a 2014 HS draftee in that middle to late Top 10 rounds. There is plenty of physicality to like about him but you just have to hope he can learn how to play baseball
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Tim @phillyfan0417
@Matt_Winkelman is richard bielsky worth paying attention to?
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Bielski is a young projectable RH pitcher. Reports I have gotten indicate he is fastball/slider with the fastball in the low-90s in one innings stints out of the pen and it is straight as an arrow. That being said he is someone where you hoping he puts on muscle and finds a grade or two of velocity. Would like to see him in a starting role before thinking about ranking him.
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Does Wilmer Oberto get double jumped next year? Seems like he needs to hit a ton at an age appropriate level to even be considered a prospect.
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He is a fringe prospect right now because of the power, he is probably 1B/LF going forward. He likely goes to LKW to start next year but it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see him in CLW before the end of 2014
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Oberto may be an age appropriate 1B who sits in the middle of lineups as he progresses.
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Who is exposed to the Rule 5 this winter? I think Collier for sure. Likely Gillies, Castro, Hewitt, Valle, Colvin?
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I will likely answer this more in depth when I have time to think about it. Of the names on that list only Colvin could be left exposed to the Rule V draft.
Hewitt and Castro will be minor league free agents, if not put on the 40 man roster they will be free to sign with any organization.
Valle, Collier, and Gillies would all have to be waived which means any team could claim them with the only restriction that they must be kept on the 40 man roster (no major league restrictions).
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I don’t have Hewitt and Collier as being eligible for the 6 Yr. Minor League Free Agency after this season. Both were drafted in the 2008 draft , and the year of a players drafting and signing does not count toward that counting for that benefit. It is 6 years after the year of signing , or; 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, ( 2014). So I see them as eligible after next season.
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Hewitt was 19 at the time of signing so he is a year earlier in the cycle meaning this past year Collier was first time Rule 5 eligible (and was protected) and Hewitt was up for the Rule 5 for the second year and went unselected. Ethan Martin was the same way and actually went unselected in the Rule 5 draft the year he was traded to the Phillies.
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OK. But, I believe the subject was “6 year minor league free agency”, and not the Rule 5 draft I messed up by saying Hewitt and Collier when it was Hewitt and L. Castro you said. Leandro Castro would, indeed. be eligible. Now, Hewitt , would also be eligible a year earlier for the Rule 5 draft then Collier, but the “6 year Free Agency” rules are not tied to the Rule 5 draft, as I suspect some believe it is based on the year a player becomes eligible for the Rule 5 draft plus another 3 years after that. I believe that 6 Year minor league free agency is only awarded to a player after they have completed the year of their signing and another 6 years in the minor league system.
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So Biddle is unquestionably the top pitching prospect in our farm system. Is Severino now the #2 or #3? A lot of questions about Morgan’s shoulder. Since he’s come back he’s been hit hard even if he hasn’t given up a lot of runs. He’s not getting many swing and misses and I have a hard time believing a tear heals back to being strong enough to be the same type of pitcher you were without the aid of surgery.
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I would still rank Severino behind Watson, Morgan, Gueller, and Giles. They all have more ceiling and projection than Severino at this moment.
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What’s the take on Mike Nesseth and Ryan O’Sullivan? Both appear to be having good seasons and with the phils dire need for help in the pen just wondering if there’s any hope for either. I thought maybe O’Sullivan would have been moved up to Reading by now but I guess the phils didn’t see the need to.
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These are two very interesting guys you mention. Nesseth is, to me, a guy who throws hard, has a good pitchers’ frame, and is coming on late. He has slipped under the radar, just as Diekman did before he broke out in 2012. Nesseth also throws partially side arm which, I understand, has increased his velocity substantially (perhaps into the mid-90s). We need to keep an eye on him.
I saw O’Sullivan pitch in spring training. He has a very good arm (lefty, low 90s), but like every other Phillie pitching prospect, he struggles with control and command. But he has some ability, that’s for sure. He will probably just move up to Reading next year.
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O’Sullivan is a RHP.
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Coming in at #6 on BA’s Hot Sheet is Severino interesting they say he peaks at 94. He is intriguing to say the least.
6. Severino Gonzalez, rhp, Phillies
Team: high Class A Clearwater (Florida State)
Age: 20
Why He’s Here: 1-0, 2.19, 12 1/3 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 4 BB, 16 SO
The Scoop: Gonzalez’s minor league numbers are absurd: a 1.84 ERA in 220 1/3 innings, 216 strikeouts and just 27 walks. OK, so that includes two years in the Venezuelan Summer League, where the Phillies kept Gonzalez after signing him for $14,000 out of Panama in 2011. At the time Gonzalez was a skinny kid with a mid-80s fastball and excellent feel for pitching. Now Gonzalez’s excellent control is still there, but his fastball has jumped up to the low 90s and peaks at 94 mph, making him one of the more intriguing arms in the organization as a 20-year-old on the cusp of reaching Double-A. Not bad for a pitcher making his U.S. debut.
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Any news on Roy’s velocity in his rehab start last night? Looks like he threw lots of cutters and splitters, but I can’t find anything about velo.
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It was mostly mid to upper 80s, he throw a couple as high as 91 early in the outing.
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At the beginning of the season there was some discussion about the 3B log jam, with Green being behind Asche, Franco and Walding. There were even talks about moving him because of the prospects ahead of him. Asche was moved up, Franco has moved up and Walding hasn’t been a breakout. Now that we are close to the end of the season it seems that Green has made defensive improvements and his power is obvious.. If we are to now make comparisons, does Green get bumped ahead of Walding at this point? How do you see next season playing out?
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I think both Walding & Green need to worry about the guys like Franco & Martinez instead of each other.With Walding being 20 & Green being 19 & Franco being 20 do I have to say more. Unless Walding , Green & Martinez out hit Franco there is nothing to say.Right now Walding is a much better defensive player than Green but Green is a more powerful hitter. Franco is both.As far as Green jumping Walding I don’t see that happening right of way. They have $800,000.00 invested in Walding, & $430,000.00 invested in Green. You do the math.
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If Jan Hernandez and Trey Williams stay at third, and if also Luis Encarnacion gets groomed there, Walding may have a year ‘probation’ at CLW, before Green and the trailing youngsters all edge him aside. Not sure he gets to Reading in 2015 with three consecutive years of less then a mediocre hit tool.
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The investment argument is ridiculous. Green was a 3rd rounder under a new CBA. Walding benefited from a much different draft where signing bonuses weren’t slotted. The Phillies still paid Green over slot.
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Rounds don’t mean anything, money invested does. This is business.
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A some point all bonus money becomes sunk costs, and shouldn’t factor into these decisions much.
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Really, why would they need to worry about Martinez? He’s not done all that well. It’s interesting that he’s finally showing life after a lost year and a half, but he has done nothing that warrants considering him to be better than Green or to have even as much potential as Walding. A good SSS period in the midst of a bad year and a half does not a prospect make.
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I see Walding getting pushed to Clearwater. Harold Martinez has done enough to get promoted to Reading and Zach Green has to be promoted to Lakewood. Green hasn’t had the kind of season, to jump Walding. There is no other place to put Walding, even though he has not earned the promotion.
I don’t see any log jam possibilities until after next season, in 2015.
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A big deal as it pertains to pitching prospects is the mastery of a change up. You cited it above as a knock on Watson.
Unless I’m reading you (and several others) wrong… you’d take the following player:
FB – 70
Change – 70
Curve – 70
Split – 50
over
FB – 70
Slider – 70
Curve – 70
Split – 50
Why is a change-up so important outside of the concept of just another plus pitch?
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In my book a splitter is a changeup. A changeup is something that looks like a fastball out of the hand but is not (this can cover all the flavors of changeups, splitters, forkballs, and some cutters depending on the movement). Without a changeup you can be exposed against opposite side batters who an sit on your fastball because your breaking ball breaks into their bat. Pitchers can certainly thrive with two breaking balls (Clayton Kershaw) but one of them has to be an 80 grade monster. Even if Watson doesn’t add a plus changeup and average pitch that he can flash can make a big difference.
So to take your example a different way, I would take this player:
60 FB
60 CB
60 CH
over this pitcher
70 FB
70 CB
It is essentially the Adam Morgan over Ethan Martin debate
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I think I would take Martin over Morgan if he had some semblance of control. Minor quibbling though. I don’t know if you factor control into your grades
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The Martin Morgan argument was probably not the best since Martin does have the two breaking ball profile. I would still take Morgan though because I was always concerned about Martin’s lack of changeup
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Well if it’s change-up vs curveball I think it matters more when we’re discussing starters than relievers. The reason being that a curve puts more strain on the arm than throwing a change-up so over the course of 5-9 innings a pitcher using a curve as their main secondary pitch will put a significantly higher strain on their arm than a fellow pitcher who uses a change as their main secondary pitch.
When you’re talking about relievers it’s not as big a deal since their innings are going to be limited. It’s also one of several factors why I think Ethan Martin is better served in the pen.
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Not right site, but Phils fire Charlie Manuel!
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Not sure if was asked already but who is the minor league prospect who the Phillies should try to trade?
To ask it a differrent way, is there a player highly rated who is a sell high with likely regression?
Aaron Altherr is my primary candidate. Has major league potential, needs to be 40man. plays premium position.
Franco would be an interesting choice if his abs will cause him to fail.
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As long as he keeps doing situps he should be fine
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I would need the internal evaluations on guys to make a really good judgement. Franco is certainly a guy to think about trading if you question the bat’s utility. If you get another corner bat Dugan is a moveable piece. Not a ton else, you don’t really want to try and sell high on any of the low minors guys because there is so much variability and you are going to gain more value as they go up levels.
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Unless a guy is thought of as a super-prospect, best at his position in the minors, top 15 in the minor leagues type of guy, you usually don’t get that much for them in trade. Trades for minor leaguers tend to happen when some team wants to dump salary by trading an established, big-contract vet and is looking for something respectable to get back. The trade is kicked off by a desire to dump the vet, not to sell high on a minor leaguer. A guy like Franco certainly has some trade value. A guy like Altherr has almost zip. Even in putting together an eyewash prospect package for a vet who is being dumped, he is the risky throw-in to sweeten the deal, not the main eyewash that the acquiring team can point to as ‘look who we got’. For a rebuilding team like the Phillies, all of these guys have more potential value to us than to an acquiring team. Yes, we have both Asche and Franco and each loses a lot of value in moving off 3B. Asche will start in Philly next season. If he does poorly, then Franco is no longer blocked. If he does very well, then he becomes an established major league up-and-coming, low-salary player who has a ton of trade value. Way more than he or Franco have today.
If the question really is that you are dealing from a position of fear that the ABS is real and Franco will be exposed, so get something while we can, I’ll just say that on the whole this causes you to sell low, as when the Phillies had these fears about Howard and wanted to peddle him for just about any decent #5 starter or middle reliever. We all know that Howard had a fairly quick fade in the majors, as many feared, but his value after a year or two in the bigs was easily 10x what it was when panic said ‘sell high — he’ll never make it in the bigs’.
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Can you give me comps for a 20 yo player in AA with a .200 ISO and a sub 8% k rate? That seem rare to me.
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Over 200 ABs like Franco, or over a full season?
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either is fine.
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A little tough to find historical 7 week minor league splits. As for season long, you seem sufficiently obsessed with the issue to dedicate some time to the research.
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How many 20 year olds play a full season in AA at all? Last year there were three.
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Sorry, wrong filter. There were 6.
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Can we kill the scouting by stats debate (also Franco no longer qualifies for .200 ISO). The under 8% K rate is kind of concerning when partnered with a 3.3% walk rate
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What’s astounding to me is what I think can fairly be called the fundamentalism of Steve’s position. It would be one thing is anyone was taking the position that we should ignore the positive AA performance and/or that Franco was destined to fail at the major league level. But no one is saying that. The most negative thing being said about him on this site (aside from one or two comments by non-regular posters) is that he has a couple of things to work on, and that, if not corrected, those things might preclude the level of success that would normally be associated with his fine age/level performance in AA.
But that’s not good enough for Steve. He takes the extreme position that the ONLY legitimate consideration is the performance (minus the BB rate), ignoring SS, and that the scouting reports expressing concerns about the approach and swing, along with the extremely low BB rate, must be given no weight whatsoever.
And he won’t shut up about it. Which would be bad enough if he at least come up with interesting or novel arguments, but instead it’s the same conclusory statements day after day.
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I’m pretty sure he’s just trolling at this point.
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He’s been on this site since the beginning – under three different names IIRC – PPFan, V1again, and now as Steve. If I’m right, he’s not a troll, just a guy that posts more or less frequently and under an evolving handle.
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Ha…I am not a “troll” and yes, Dphrey is correct, I have been on this blog since the beginning. I post under different names because WP keeps friggin logging me out and I sometimes I sign in under my WP account and sometimes I sign in under my twitter. There is no intent to deceive, I just don’t really think about it much because I don’t care about my perception on this blog. I just want answer to my questions.
LarryM – ha…do you need a hug? 🙂 clearly you are taking my posts way too personal. If you read my question, it is neither extreme nor does it suggest anything that you attribute to it in your way too long rant.
It was a simple question. At the end of the day, scouting reports are wrong a lot. As well as stats can be deceiving. I have been watching baseball a long time. So I don’t get giddy based on MILB stats. However, I do notice rare occurrences, so I asked a legitimate question.
Hey LarryM – instead of ranting an insult on me…why don’t you actually look up the data?
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I don’t have time to do the work on this – one would think that the “only stats matter” crowd would be the ones to spend the time on this, since THEY are the ones making the assertion.
But I decided to look for at least one comp. The first one I found was Jesus Montero. On the whole, he did BETTER in AA as a 19 year old than Franco as a 20 YO, In a similar SS. K% was a little worse, though still very good; ISO was better, and BB% was much better.
Now, it’s true that Montero was regarded as a top 10 prospect. But (so far at least) he hasn’t made much impact on the major league level (.258/.303/.396).
Obviously we have a SS of one here, but given the extreme nature of Steve’s argument, one counter-example is really enough.
It would be interesting to look at this further. I expect that almost all players having that level of success in AA as a 20 year old achieve SOME level of major league success. But not all of them become stars. That fact contradicts the “argument” that Steve has been making for the past few weeks on a daily basis.
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Larry. You should understand by now that sometimes people take a POV to foster better debate. To push an argument. It get away from groupthink. I don’t have “extreme” views with blinders on. But I will play devil’s advocate.
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Matt. No we can not “kill the scouting by stats debate.” Nor should we. The reason why is because there is a very high (although not perfect) correlation between the two. Conversely, projecting based solely on scouting reports is not consistently correct. Need evidence? Look at the Braves OF. Filled with #1 overall prospects and all have “underperformed” throughout their career. Now compare that to the Phillies inf. show me a scouting report that showed Utley as a HOFer. Or Rollins? Scouts hated Howard. That’s just a sample. I can go on and on with inconsistencies on both sides. But I would bet large sums of money, that if you lined up a list of young players with elite performance at AA over a reasonable sample size, you would end up with a very, very high hit rate. And I asked the question open to being proven wrong. So show me why I am wrong with data.
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First off, where did Matt say that stats don’t matter when evaluating talent. It’s part of the equation along with scouting. The thing is we don’t see any of these guys regularly so you can’t tell if his approach is bad or not (it reportedly is for Franco and he has elite skills at making contact but I think the BB% and K% actually demonstrate poor approach with the weak contact he gets from being able to swing at anything and connect with it that has cooled him off as his time in AA has carried on).
Secondly, you’re making a claim that “if you lined up a list of young players with elite performance at AA over a reasonable sample size, you would end up with a very, very high hit rate.” Where is YOUR data to support YOUR claim? I’m not saying that you are wrong because I don’t really know but you don’t get to make a claim and then ask everyone else to prove or disprove it for you.
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Christopher I never said matt said that. I agree it is not all one or the other. It is a mix. But I think some rely too heavily on scouting reports.
I also agree that I haven’t fully backed up my opinions. I simply don’t have the time. So I am asking people who feel strongly the other way if they have hard data to contradict my point. I haven’t seen it yet. Which doesn’t make me right. Or wrong for that matter.
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I don’t have a dog in this fight, but I absolutely agree with Chris that making an unsupported claim and asking others to disprove said claim (rather than doing the research yourself to support your claim) is lame. Really lame.
Maybe a better approach is to not make the claim until you have the data to back it up?
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Anonymous, you made a fair point. And so I did a little research. Over the last 10 years in the Eastern League there have been 16 players who were either 19, 20 or 21 and were in the top 10 in OPS. If you exclude the 21 yo players, it is only 7, but let’s include them for argument stake. There names are:
Name Age
Jesus Montero 19
Dioner Navarro 19
Ryan Zimmerman 20
Wilmer Flores 20
Grady Sizemore* 20
Lastings Milledge 20
Joe Mauer 20
Pablo Sandoval 21
Oswaldo Arcia 21
David Wright 21
Guillermo Quiroz 21
Robinson Cano 21
Victor Diaz 21
Eric Duncan 21
Dustin Pedroia 21
Justin Huber 21
Here are their stats
Year Name Age PA ISO K% BB% MLB Quality
2009 Jesus Montero 19 181 0.169 11.6% 7.7% Too Early
2012 Wilmer Flores 20 275 0.133 10.9% 7.3% Too Early
2003 Grady Sizemore* 20 559 0.107 13.1% 8.2% Solid player
2008 Pablo Sandoval 21 184 0.185 10.9% 4.3% All Star
2005 Ryan Zimmerman 20 252 0.157 13.5% 6.0% Star Player
2003 Joe Mauer 20 310 0.053 8.1% 8.1% Star Player
2004 David Wright 21 272 0.152 15.1% 14.3% Star Player
2004 Robinson Cano 21 323 0.141 12.4% 7.4% Star Player
2005 Dustin Pedroia 21 298 0.099 8.7% 11.4% Star Player
2003 Dioner Navarro 19 233 0.083 11.2% 7.7% Bust
2005 Lastings Milledge 20 214 0.095 22.0% 6.5% Bust
2012 Oswaldo Arcia 21 299 0.159 20.7% 9.4% Bust
2003 Guillermo Quiroz 21 434 0.146 19.1% 10.4% Bust
2003 Victor Diaz 21 187 0.138 17.1% 4.3% Bust
2006 Eric Duncan 21 242 0.13 15.7% 13.2% Bust
2004 Justin Huber 21 295 0.073 19.3% 15.6% Bust
So a few things jump out:
1. Of the 4 of the 6 players that are Star players or All Stars had a walk rate lower than 8.2%
2. Only Pedroia and Mauer had a K rate lower than 10%
3. None of these players had an ISO at Franco’s level. Sandoval’s is closest
4. The K% for the busts averaged 17.9% and for the stars 11.4%
5. The walk rate for the busts averaged 9.6% and for the stars 8.6%. That’s right, the busts had a higher walk rate than the stars.
Which brings me back to my gut driven conclusion that started this entire back and forth. A 20 year old who hits for a high ISO and a low k% in AA is very, very rare. While it is not a guarantee of success, there are zero examples in the last 10 years of the Eastern League of players that meet that criteria and were not stars. Bottom line…you got to have elite hand eye coordination to do what he is doing, and that is the only thing that can’t be taught.
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Wait you called Oswaldo Arcia a bust, that’s absolutely wrong. Also, Grady Sizemore was a star till he got injured.
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Ok on both points. that only further helps my case. but good catch
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Sorry if it sounds like I’m trying to nitpick, I enjoyed the info
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Steve I just want to address a couple things about your conclusion. 1st it appears the closest comparison we have for Franco is Sandoval because he is the only one of the bunch with a BB% sort of near 3%. The star players you have on your list are Wright, Zimmerman, Pedroia, Mauer, and Cano. I think it’s important to note that only two of them plays Franco’s position and Wright had a 15.1% K rate and 14.3% BB rate and Zimmerman has a career 9.3% BB rate in the majors.
Anyway let’s go back to Sandoval. It’s true that he had a 4ish % BB rate in AA but his career BB rate in the majors is actually 7.5%. I think a lot of those concerned with Franco cite BB rate as something he needs to improve upon to be better but they’re not actually saying that he won’t or can’t. But he does need to work on his approach.
Anyway I think your little analysis is interesting but I don’t think it provides the basis for a reasonable predictor of success because guys like Sandoval and Zimmerman had much improved BB% in the majors. And the sample of players is so small. I understand why you limited it to the Eastern League but I wonder what the extra data points that come with opening things up to players from all AA teams in all leagues would do.
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Seriously, he took the time and effort to come up with some data-based study and you down=play it, referring to it as a ‘small sample’!
The whole undertaken was done because other posters claimed he was ‘too lazy’ to come up with empirical evidence and demanded those in disgreement to prove him wrong.
Finally, what does the position of a player matter in this instance…since defensive/value attributes are not addressed, purely statistical hitting facts?
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My main objections have nothing to do with the small sample. And the position matters because a star hitter at catcher or 2nd has historically had a different bar set than a star 3rd base hitter. The main point to my post was Franco will have to show improvement with his BB% because none of the guys on his list of successful players has a career rate as low as Franco’s AA. That’s not to say that Franco will not improve just that he will have to. And that an improvement can’t be assumed that it will occur unless his approach is adjusted. I’ve stated before that Franco’s approach worries me more than his swing. But I still think he will be a good player. Heck I had him at #2 in my preseason rankings. I don’t think many else had him that high.
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Fair enough.
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Christopher. Either you don’t understand my point or didn’t read my post, but the sample size is not small in my example. It is 10 years of players in 1 of the 3 AA leagues. The reason you say that the results after the filter is a small sample size is exactly my point…it is very rare to have a 20 yo player be in the top 20 in AA OPS. That’s the point. If you can do that well at that age, then you have elite hand eye ability.
further, your countering with “well other guys improved BB rate when they got to the majors” is also a weak point. because you are dinging Franco for not doing something in the majors before he is in the majors. let’s see what happens. the point is, there are great comps of players who improved their walk rate in the major leagues. and if you look at Franco’s walk rate in CLW, there is a strong reason to believe that he will do the same.
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Well didn’t you originally say top 10 in OPS for the league and also say you limited it to only the Eastern League and now you’re saying top 20 in OPS in AA? I understand why you kept it to the Eastern League because that’s where Franco resides but there are probably another 20-30 players to fit the bill from other leagues. Anyway the sample being small isn’t my main problem. I already addressed that in another post.
I don’t think this study forms a reasonable basis to predict the success Franco will have in his career. It seems like you think it guarantees he will be some kind of star. To be honest I don’t understand what the original argument was here. Was it that Franco should be rated really highly? Was it that Franco is very likely going to be a star? I don’t remember.
And look I’m not saying Franco won’t be very good. I had him 2nd on my preseason rankings. But he does have to address is BB rate and he probably will but why should I assume he will unless he changes his current approach. I remember thinking his BB rate would go up as he cooled off in AA when the original Law report came in dismissing his approach as terrible. Well now it appears Law is being validated some as it hasn’t really ticked up and the power is lessening as Matt posted in his response.
Anyway Franco can be a very good player if he adjusts his approach at the plate, but I don’t see why that should be something that is guaranteed to happen and your study doesn’t represent any kind of causal link between the players that do increase their BB rate in the majors. Right now there don’t seem to be any signs of him adjusting yet and the trend is going down and not up as far as his minor league career is concerned.
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My concerns are well documented on Franco and I won’t go through them all again. I am concerned by the sheer amount of balls in play with limited secondary skills. If Franco reverts to near his career babip around .300 you are looking at a guys who will hit somewhere around .320/.330/.500 in the major leagues (if everything breaks right). That looks pretty good on the surface, but if that guy is a negative on the bases and is neutral on defense that isn’t a star it is this guy http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirar01.shtml, if he stays healthy and productive (that is an average under 2 WAR per year for his career).
My biggest point in the ISO is trending down (because he is swinging at everything and making bad contact), June (48 PAs) .362, July (102 PAs) .162, August (66 PAs) .111. Now you are looking at a guy who is more .300/.310/.440, which is not exactly your ideal third baseman of the future.
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If he turns into Ramirez I’d be happy. During his peak 5 year stretch he averaged just about 4 WAR and had a couple other very nice seasons thrown in there. You might have actually hit the perfect comp for Franco.
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‘Neutral on defense’?
By EVERY account Franco is a superb defensive player.
In fact, may be wrong , but didn’t Joe Jordan say he was the best 3rd baseman in the organization. And Kelly Dugan, in June, said he was the best he has seen in the minors this year. Exactly not sure what scouting reports you read were he is ‘nuetral’ in the field.
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Reports have been fairly mixed on Franco’s defense this year. Basically there is not much range, but he has a good arm.
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Matt – we keep talking past each other. I am making a broader point. My point is that when analyzing a prospect, I think scouts put too little weight on K rate. And I think that k% is THE critical statistic when analyzing the projectability of the standard metrics. Take the example of Miguel Sano.
I challenge you to find an elite player who had a 28% k rate in AA. Or a 26% k rate in A ball (both low and high A ball). He even had a 26% k rate in rookie ball. I looked and can’t find it. Yet you and the scouts look past that and they LOVE him.
That is my point. I simply don’t understand it.
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Because the K rate comes from the nature of his swing and how he generates power. Sano works deep counts looking for pitches to drive, also his swing can be longish and leveraged at time leading to some amount of swing and miss. It also means that his walk rate is really high, which are free bases.
I think Franco’s K rate is actually a terrible thing right now, it is indicative of a bad approach and terrible mindset at the plate. Franco at his best probably should have a K rate in the 12-14% range because that is what comes along with patience and using the utility of your power (working deeper counts, looking to drive pitches) and drawing walks. Franco’s strikeout rate has always been low because he is an aggressive hitter but right now his natural skils (hand eye coordination, bat speed) are allowing for him to physically put the bat on the ball but because he is swinging at everything he is not making that solid contact you would expect of someone with his power and bat skills. It is also greatly decreasing his ability to draw walks (which are not the end all be all of stats but the rate is down over half from A+ to AA and it is roughly about 20 bases a year being left at the plate). If you want to make points about Franco’s future and how impressive it has been I am much more willing to be impressed by what he did in the FSL than what he is doing in AA.
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I’ll echo what anon said – it’s incumbent on the person making.the argument to provide the data, and not reasonable to ask that others to do the research to disprove your assertion.
That said, it looks like I’m the only guy to do any research at all, and the first example I found doesn’t support the argument that you and Steve are making.
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I just responded with data…and guess what…I was correct. Your Montero example is terrible. He is way too young to call a bust. The guy had a very good rookie year at 22. Yes, this year he started off poorly and then got hurt. But labeling him a bust is idiotic.
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Yet you called Oswaldo Arcia a bust
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Arcia…yet to be determined it would appear.
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my bad. move one bust up to a TBD. doesn’t change the conclusion, but good catch
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And part of the problem with the performance over scouting crowd – not saying with you necessarily, and even Steve is not the worst offender by any means – is the tendency to miss evaluate performance. Ignoring age level (obviously not an issue in this case), over weighing BA ( somewhat an issue in this case), under weighing BB rates (very much an issue in this case) and placing too much weight on SSS (somewhat an issue in this case).
Finally, there is a tendency sometimes – evidenced by Steve in this case – to argue not just that more weight should be placed on performance, but that the performance refutes the scouting reports. This purely fallacious, not an opinion upon which reasonable people may differ.
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Rollins was very well regarded when he was in the minors. Utley had excellent scouting reports on his hitting both prior to the draft and while in the minors. The only scouting knock on Utley was that many scouts did not think he could ever play a good defensive 2B going into the draft and early in his minor league career. Howard was not well regarded. Especially by the Phillies brass, but I guess generally since although Wade tried mightily to move him to Pittsburgh for not very much pitching in return, the Pirates at least, and presumably other teams, said no thank you.
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JRoll—#31…BA….2001
Chase—#81…BA….2003
RyanH.—#27…BA…2005
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I assume Franco will be around 50-60 on BA’s list this offseason, and some other writers will have him higher. It’s not like scouts hate him.
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Exactly, outside of Law who has said he might not rank him in the Top 100 the consensus midseason was late 30’s into the 40’s. that will likely take a step back. A lot of what people are arguing against is that Franco is a near ready for the major leagues star. It has been a similar story to that of Biddle where people are saying calm down on the building block and accept the above average major leaguer
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Matt – I just did a data filled post with the performance argument. Can you now give me a list of guys with great scouting reports, average/below average performance in AA but turned out to be great MLB players?
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Who has a better defensive glove at 2nd then Carlos Alonso? Perhaps the best in the minor leagues.
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Possibly Hernandez.
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Certainly Galvis.
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Hernandez and Galvis, and probably a couple of not hit SSs in the GCL and WPT.
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Y’all better check the ‘stats’ before making such claims. Alonso outperforms them all. And the eye-test is equal to Fred Galvis’ eye-test…..but lets leave him at the shortstop position for this time.
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Alonso is acknowledged to be a very good defensive 2B. He is, however, not a threat to either Galvis nor Hernandez as a prospect, because he just doesn’t have a good enough bat nor enough defensive versatility to be likely to make the major leagues. He is 2 years older than Hernandez, but Hernandez is in AAA with a higher OPS than Alonso has while repeating A+ Clearwater. At 25, he is quite old for CLW.
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Whatever happened to Marek Minarik? Is he still with the org?
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He was released in the spring, my guess is he initiated it so that he could return home
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Who was that catcher that never struck out last year? He was in the GCL last year but I haven’t heard anyone mention him at all this season. What happened to him?
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Willans Astudillo. He’s injured this year. He was 20 last year, so a bit old for GCL.
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Herlis, Willans and Wilmer batting one-two -three would generate a high OBP.
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What do the next three seasons look like for Cameron Rupp? When does he get the call? When does he get the call to stay?
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I think depending on injuries he could get his first call sometime next year. I think the team likes Kratz though, so until Kratz starts to suck or they don’t want to pay him, Rupp won’t be able to be a full time backup with the big club. It seems apparent the Phillies are going to sign a starter this offseason.
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I would expect Rupp to get the call at the end of the LHV season to come up and be the third catcher, he could be a backup to start next year but with Kratz under control and the team looking at bring back Ruiz or upgrading him Rupp likely returns to AAA waiting for an injury or two to stick in the majors as a backup
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Having a ‘decent’ backup C in AAA is a good thing to have. Catchers always get hurt (especially with old guys like Ruiz and Kratz) so having the option to bring a guy up and down under team control is certainly worthwhile. Rupp has 3 years of control in that method which will likely determine if he should be a ‘full-time backup’.
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Ruiz and Kratz are both stopgaps, assuming we bring back Ruiz. Rupp could be doing a lot of catching in Philly by the end of 2014 and almost certainly in 2015.
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Looks like Joseph has escaped the catcher-prospect list. So the value received for Pence looks like nothing much. Aside from the concussions, his talents were far overvalued by the Phils’ scouts as his performance showed.
Can he be of value as a player…somewhere? First base has been mentioned. Yet he has yet to show that he can hit and with power.
A lost cause?
Rupp should play a decent role as the backup in ’14, IMO. The hint is out: the Phils will re-sign (cheaply) Ruiz to a one plus option contract. Kratz should be replaced without harming the payroll too much. Or return Kratz to LV…in order to backup for injuries. Isn’t Rupp 25 or so? Time to give him a role in the bigtop. His defense supposedly is a strong point. Hitting keeping up with each level. .255 BA OK w me. Youth must be served.
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Art, I bet that Seth Rosin would disagree with you about the Pence trade to SF. Can we let Tommy Joseph get healthy before we write him off as his health should be the top priority?
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Will you chill on Joseph already!
All of 22 in AAA and needs rest to become healthy again.
What is the rush!
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“needs rest to become healthy again”? Coming off a concussion, it has happened in the past that people coming off a concussion have rested for the duration and never got healthy again vis-a-vis mental faculties. So, from what I read it is his 4th concussion at 22, and the last one ( which will basically hold him out from the game for the better part of the year) was simply from a foul ball into the catcher’s mask. This is said to happen all the time for a catcher, more or less, So, i would guess a move off from catcher would be in the cards, and the guys who know everything about baseball on here, I believe , would say Joseph’s offensive numbers to date would not “profile” well at 1B or the OF. This has been seen before in other sports (usually with more head contact) where a concussion drags on for months and things never get back to normal. So, I would say it is , basically, an “iffy” proposition.
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