Last chance for the big club to sway the thinking of their leadership. A strong week might rightfully lead to a buy-a-couple-pieces stance, though a big splash is probably not in the offing, I would guess. A mediocre week might lead to a sell-off of a couple pieces, or a stand-pat position – MYoung and Lannan are moveable, if someone wants them, wouldn’t necessarily harm the team, and might net you a big-league bench OF to fill in now and when Revere returns, replace Laynce Nix and his non-exystance off the Phils bench, and a middle reliever to fill in the gap so you don’t have to call up Phillippe Aumont again. An 0-6 week might lead Rube to hit the reset button, moving guys like Papelbon, Utley, Rollins, Lee, Ruiz, and who knows who else.
If they can’t find a taker for John Lannan before the non-waiver deadline, I would shop Kyle Kendrick. FIP and xFIP at 3.88 and 4.00 respectively, one more year of team control, cheap for the rest of this year, knows how to take a practical joke. (I missed in the original post that Lannan is an arb4 this year. He was a super 2 and so gets 4 years of arb, not 3- adds to his value and changes the complexion of both the Young comparison and the Kendrick point a bit). When Doc comes back, presumably in a couple weeks, it will likely send a competent Jon Pettibone back to AAA. Pettibone’s FIP and xFIP are right around 4.20. That’s fine with me for a fifth starter.
Phuture Phillies 
I really hope the Phillies end up selling.
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Michael Young, Papelbon, Delmon Young are really the only people I’d move. Which means even selling them the needle for the team’s future outlook doesn’t change all that much. Lee needs to still be on this team and Utley is our best option for 2nd base for the next year or two.
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“Lee needs to still be on this team and Utley is our best option for 2nd base for the next year or two.”
+1.
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Does it matter if Utley’s our best option for the next couple years? We aren’t making the playoffs anyway, so who cares if he’s here or not? What difference does it make if were an 80 win team or an 85 win team?
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The thing is the Phillies cannot blow it up and sacrifice fan interest and a big TV contract. I feel like that’s the #1 thing people keep forgetting in the equation when they make their argument for blowing the team up. Anyway what do you realistically hope to receive by trading away Utley as a rental this year? We could probably get more in the 1st rd compensation pick.
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Do you honestly believe though that TV execs are going to be fooled by the most certainly noncompetitive team that will get rolled out there in the next two years? You think an aged Utley, Howard, Lee, Papelbon will sway them to give us an extra couple billion on a contract? The Phillies are going to get their large contract regardless if it’s Utley, Howard, Lee or Hernandez, Ruf, and Morgan. People actually keep forgetting that FoxSports1 is the big question mark in this equation. They really want to pick up an exclusive deal with an east coast baseball team (hint: Boston-DC corridor one of the largest media markets in terms of baseball viewership). Phillies are the only game in town with an expiring contract or without their own network (YES, MASN, etc) All we need is a bidding war between Fox and Comcast and I don’t think Comcast would like losing the baseball team from it’s home city. That is how the Dodgers got $7 Billion…not because they traded for Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez.
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Interesting take on the TV topic over at Crashburn alley http://crashburnalley.com/
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I don’t understand what his point is? The Phillies won’t be able to spend all that money immediately so they shouldn’t maximize the TV contract when they can? As a business and as a team that doesn’t make any sense. I’m not asking for the Phillies to be buyers. I just want them to be smart sellers and what people think we can get for some of our veterans is not realistic.
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He’s trying to say even with a huge new deal, there’s probably going to be very few impact players available in which the Phillies can spend it on.
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Ok so that means sell off veterans for pieces that probably won’t move the needle for helping the Phillies future chances and negatively impact the TV deal to some degree? At least that seemed to be his conclusion at the end.
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Agreed. I like that site but the point they wre making doidn’t mae sense. Just becuase there are less high end FAs going to hit the market (which is true) doesn’t mean a few won’t be available. In fact, fewer numbers may require more overpays which you would be able to do with more payroll flexibity.
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I think the point was that you need to be able to develop a farm system because they are becoming increasingly fewer high level free agents. Having money to spend is great, but if there isn’t quality available you are going to overpay.
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With fewer FAs hitting before the age of 30, and the average player’s ability depreciating at an earlier age (ostensibly a consequence of less PED abuse), using the Yankees model of buying players is a poor and extremely opportunity cost-heavy idea. You’ll essentially be paying for 2-3 years of performance but paying for 5-6 years. The delta between cost and ROI is greater now than ever.
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Well let’s see do you think more people will watch if you might be able to talk yourself into thinking they have a shot at the wildcard for the year or if you know the team has no shot. If the Phillies got rid of all their veterans except Hamels and went with a youth movement they would be a 60 win team with not much improvement in sight. So yeah you’re going to have to keep interest in the meantime because there won’t be a productive youth movement until about 2016 or 2017
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The win/loss record doesn’t matter. The Houston Astros secured a $3.2 Billion deal in 2010 with a 76-86 record. The Texas Rangers got a $3 Billion one the SAME year with a 90-72 record. These deals are based on competition with other markets and networks, marketability of the team, and the media market (size) in which the team is a part of. Outside of teams like the Yankees, over a 20 year TV contract, executives know that there will be periods of ebb and flow. That’s why in the long run, it’s not going to matter if they trade off players in a rebuilding phase.
You bring attendance into it as well.
Astros: 2009- 13th in MLB in attendance
2010- 16th in attendance
Rangers: 2009- 17th in MLB in attendance
2010- 14th in MLB in attendance
Dodgers (right before their $7 Billion deal): 2011- 11th
2012- 5th
Phillies (right before they’re due to cash in ): 2012 -1st
2013- 6th
Even teams with middle of the road of attendance numbers cashed in. The market is what dictates the price, not what players are on the team. The Phillies will get their deal around $5 billion and it’s not going to because they kept Utley and Lee.
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I actually wasn’t talking about attendance, I was talking about TV ratings. If the Phillies have declining TV ratings for the next two years it will have no effect on the TV deal they get? Is that your position? I’m skeptical. Sure they will still get a big deal but would it be the optimum balance of a deal between business and future team chances?
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If I were the Phils I would change my approach and become be a big player in the Cuban market floating the debt until I can cash in on the TV deal in 2015. If scouted properly, for the most part you are getting a nearly ready made player think Puig, Cespedes, Soler, Chapman, Leonys Martin etc.. and of course as echoed on this site numerous times up their presence in LA.
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Dodgers appear to have signed another Cuban ..
JIM BOWDEN @JimBowdenESPNxm 1m
According to Neftali Ruiz of CDN Dodgers have agreed to terms w Cuban INF Alexander Guerrero on a $32 million deal. Long term 2B CAN HIT
Hmmm won’t the phils be in the need of a 2B who can hit?
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I wouldn’t discout attendance fugures either. I think the article citing citing dwindling attendence that even if the phils average 33K a game this year it would cost them $25M in ticket sales alone from previous years.
I just don’t get why people would possibly risk a maximized TV deal over a few prospects that might never see the big leagues.
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What do you honestly think the Phillies are actually going to get for two months of Utley? As someone else said, the comp pick would likely be more valuable than any return.
And what about Lee? How many of proposects that the Phillies gave up for Lee and Halladay (or got in return for Lee from Seattle) turned out to be solid big league contributors? It’s a fallacy that selling the veterans is going to yield the type of players that help thebig club in the short term. Even solid pieces you might get in return would likely be 3-4 years away with at best a 40-50%chance of contributing at the big league level at some point in the future.
You are far better of keeping the players that can help you for future years and then adding to that group (by trades, young players form the minors, a FA signing or two).
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I’m not so sure about the comp pick being more valuable. Maybe it would be, but I’m looking at the scouting reports on the guys the Cubs got for Garza and it seems like they made out pretty well by trading a rental.
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The Cubs did all right, but you are certainly going to get more for a #2 pitcher rental than you are for Utley.
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Probably true, but I think how much more depends on the team you’re dealing him to. By fWAR, Utley is the 34th most valuable everyday player in the league this year, and a lot of the guys ahead of him have played more games. I think there are GMs out there who realize how good he still is, and would be willing to pay a decent price to get him.
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True for this year. But it sounds like think Texas views Garza as a long term piece which wouldn’t be the case with Utley. Also with Texas, you had an instance of a near major league ready (though flawed) prospect completely blocked by an All-Star for the forseeable future.
But you are right in that it only takes one GM to bite, but it also takes the right match. I have no interest in trading Utley for players in A+ and below.
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According the fangraphs, Matt Garza has been worth .9 WAR this season. Chase Utley has been worth 3.
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The Cubs got very little in return for the hottest rental pitcher in baseball. The Phillies would have been roasted alive for this trade which asks the question why did the Cubs trade Garza so soon. This trade would indicate that the Phillies should not expect any great returns on their trades.
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They got a guy in Olt who was one of the most talked up prospects in the league last year, and even though his stock has taken a hit he was still in at least one of those industry Top 50 prospects that was posted a little while back. They also got 2 SPs with mid/back-rotation upside, one of which is on the threshold of the majors (although he may end up as a bullpen piece) and they got 2 PTBNLs, which we know from past experience sometimes turn out to be nice prospects.
Garza is having a good year but he’s not exactly Justin Verlander. I would be pretty satisfied with that return. “Very little” is subjective in this case but I’m not expecting Castellanos or somebody like that for Utley. I’d take the Cubs return over a comp pick any day of the week.
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Olt was bandied around last year in the Hamels to the Ranger trade-rumor scenarios before the Rubenistic extension for Hamels was signed.
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He’s still in some top 50s because of inertia. IMO he has bust written all over him at this point. I don’t think he has enough positives to counter the extreme lack of contact skills.
PTBNLs rarely turn into nice prospects. Santana was very much the exception (and note that he is currently sporting an unsightly 31.3% K rate in AA).
Now, I’m NOT saying that this was a bad return for the Cubs. Far from it. In fact, part of my point is that … this is what a rental gets you. Not what many people around here are hoping for.
Which brings us to your last point – “I’d take the Cubs return over a comp pick any day of the week.” Well maybe so. I think there’s a good chance that 3 mediocre pieces beat one potentially very good piece. But, to play devil’s advocate a bit, the biggest crying need for the Phillies are players with the upside of potential stars. Cubs didn’t get that for Garza, the Phillies won’t get that in a trade for Utley. A comp pick doesn’t guarentee that either, But it gives you a shot at that.
Of course, many of us think Utley should and likely will be resigned. And I get the counter argument to that. And if the return is a possible impact player – or maybe even a guy like Pederson, who IMO is at this point a MUCH better prospect that Olt (how much difference a year can make) – by all means do it. But for a very risky, low upside position player, and a couple of possible back of the rotation starters? Meh.
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Fair points. I don’t really have my own opinion on Olt, although obviously the K rate would normally signify a red flag. General consensus seems to be that he’s still a good piece with upside, so I’m looking at the Cubs’ return through that lens.
And I echo MattWinks’ thoughts on the comp pick. I do agree that a (or a few) real blue chip prospect(s) is what the Phils need most on the farm, but since we can’t get a real 1st round pick anymore it’s harder to think that we’ll end up with one. We might, but there’s probably an equal chance that we would draft a guy who doesn’t even look as good as CJ Edwards in a year or two.
Really, if I were Ruben, I’d be looking to get back a prospect of a certain caliber. If we don’t get it, then don’t trade Utley. So I think we agree about that. I’d have no problem with keeping him and re-signing him after the season.
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Handzuz, Olt is having a horrible year but could be usable. The point I don’t understand is how many 3B the Cubs need as they just drafted Bryant for 3B. Unless they plan to convert Olt to the OF or 1B(doubt that with Rizzo there) what was the point in getting a player without a position. I would rather have the Compensation pick and draft another player in the 1rst round in the JP Crawford skill level set than get many marginal pieces.
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Olt is a plus defender at 3B, Bryant might be average with work, but he long term is a corner OF. The bigger 3B problem is that Javier Baez might be a 3B long term.
Essentially they got a guy with first division upside and bench floor, a major league #4/#5 starter, an interesting prospect with #3/#4 upside but durability questions, and two other players (or Neil Ramirez who is a hard throwing near major league reliever). That is much better than a comp pick that would have been in the 30s and a much worst player than Crawford (essentially would you rather Aaron Judge or that package)
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+1.
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Matt, if another team had signed Garza (assuming he stayed with the Cubs and the signing team was not in the bottom 10) would not have the Cubs recieved the signing teams 1rst round pick which would be higher than a sandwich pick?
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The compensation picks are all at the end of the first round regardless of who the signing team is. The pick disappears from the round and everyone moves up.
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Olt was beaned in winter ball, ok people. Takes a little bit of time to get it together. Ask David Wright!
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Matt, thanks for clearing that up as I misunderstood that part of the Free Agent signing and Draft Pick compensation rules. In that case I agree with you about prospects over the compensation pick.
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I strongly agree with this post. Yeah, there are some hits like Bagwell back in the day. But most often you get flameouts like Drank, Carrasco , Taylor who Btw were top 3 prospects in our system when traded.
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Drabek I meant
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Aside from the very real reasons why winning does matter even for non-contenders, discussed above, the underlying dispute is regarding just what the realistic return is for Utley. I would have thought that the Garza deal would have squashed some of the enthusiasm for an Utley trade, but apparently not. Confirmation bias rears it’s ugly head.
Now, if someone was making the argument that we might get a high upside piece in the lower minors for Utley, well, that’s an argument at least. But no, people seem to think we’re going to get major league ready talent. The Garza deal tells you what you can expect in terms of major league ready talent: AT BEST – a guy whose upside is probably an average major league regular but who is not guaranteed to reach even that level (his K rate could preclude that). Yeah, the Cubs got a major league pitcher also, one whom would not crack the Phillies’ current rotation. And a lottery ticket. As others have said, the organization would get roasted, absolutely roasted, if they made that kind of deal for Utley.
Which leave the “it only takes one team” argument. Well sure, if you can find a sucker to give us a top prospect for Utley, then go for it. But some people seem to have confused the concept of “sometimes major league front offices do crazy things” with the concept of “you can always find a sucker to overpay for a rental.” Which is demonstrably not true. The only front office I could see making that kind of mistake is KC, and, at 6 games under .500 and losers of 7 of their last 10, I don’t see them being buyers.
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Utley may get you Joc Pederson, especially since the LAD ownership is in a Vegas state of mind and on a roll of the die is bringing them some success lately with the MVPuig arrival.
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I know there was some speculation on that a few weeks ago. Didn’t buy it then, buy it less now. But as I also said then, I’d do that deal. .
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I agree on trading Kendrick. What he will make in arbitration and then the following year as a free agent, I am sorry but they can find other pitchers to do what he does for less. Trade him now and get something for him. I would absolutely have a fire sale. The only players I would keep would be Brown, Revere, Frandsen, Kratz, Lee (yes, keeping Lee) Hamels, Pettibone. Everyone else (including the bullpen) is up for grabs.
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I’d get Jason Pridie back here. He is still 29 and hits every where he goes. When Revere comes back you can move or designate Nix. A small move for sure but a cheap one.
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Yanks want to unload Arod and Joba Chamberlin. They have top 10 prospects to spare in the OF, a top catching prospect and pitching. I’d take those 2 with 3 prospects from this list as well and give them Michael Young, Carlos Ruiz, Delmon, too, if they want him, Kendrick and a non top 10 Phils prospect. This could be a time to really add some young talent. Arod may never play again and is more an issue for 2014. Phils get to keep the guys they’re torn about (Utley, Rollins, Lee) while strengthening their farm.
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What prospects do the Yankees have that would justify taking on A-Rod and the nearly $90 million left on his contract? I really don’t see it.
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I’d go after one of their power RH arms for Myoung either Ramirez, Kahnle or De Paula straight up.
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Seriously. That contract is worse than Howard’s.
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you must be on crack to think that we should take ARod. We wouldn’t take him for their entire farm system. his contract (along with Howard’s) would kill our mlb team for 5 years.
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What if ARod is suspended for 2 years without pay?
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If they void his contract, it’d be interesting. However, that’s a huge gamble if you don’t know that he gets suspended two years without pay.
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If he gets suspended doesn’t his salary still get paid. The only difference being the salary gets paid to MLB and not the player.
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well this is a can of worms thats not going to get opened lol
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The way to improve is to buy in a buyer’s market and sell in a seller’s market. Not to over pay when the situation is reversed. this is clearly a .500 club with real holes. can’t hit top pitchers and the worst bullpen in baseball. this is not a team that will win with a few band-aids. i would sell anyone who got back real value.
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Steve, I agree with you, and this is one of my bigger complaints with Amaro and some of his moves the last few years. I think adding Pence would’ve been a good move in a buyers market, but it was a sellers. This year, with a lot of teams in it that are looking to add, it looks like a sellers market. I think a team would overpay for M. Young. Some AL team might be desperate enough to take on Delmon as a DH. Lannan has pitched well his past few starts and is a consolation prize to the Garza/Peavy losers. I’d even consider moving Chooch to a team that needs catching and thinks it has a shot, like the Yankees. For as much talk as there is about not getting impact players for what we have to offer, it just takes one desperate team. Remember Casey Blake for Carlos Santana? I look at the Red Sox, who have a loaded farm system, and think rentals like M. Young and Lannan would yield higher type prospects because they have so many in stock.
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Sox may be willing to deal Bryce Brentz for MYoung.
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According to whom, exactly?
Look, I agree that M. Young should go. And Brentz as a prospect is IMO kind of meh. But Young won’t even get you a marginal guy like Brentz.
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I dunno Larry, it seems like every “writer” who has connections says the Michael Young market is heating up. I have no connections, so I have no idea
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See, here’s the thing … and I guess I could be wrong … but there’s different levels of “heating up.” That is, it’s one thing to say that a number of teams are interested in him. That’s not the same as saying a lot of teams are willing to overpay for him. And frankly even a “B” prospect would IMO be an overpay. There may be 3 or 4 teams willing to pay value for him, which is to say, maybe a guy like Lino. Heck, people rightly praised Amaro for the Thome deal, and IMO Thome had more trade value than M. Young (granted the Phillies didn’t just get Lino). IMO, if the Phillies get more than org filler for M. Young, even a very marginal prospect, they will have done quite well.
Where I COULD be wrong would be if a team disagreed about M. young’s value. But see, here’s why I find the Brentz assertion (it isn’t even a rumor) unlikely. Boston may want Young, but they are the last front office to overpay for him. (And frankly I’m even a little surprised that they want him at all).
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Not Phillies related, but am I the only one having a hard time getting mad at Ryan Braun? Like, yeah, I would have lied about it too.
And then there’s the whole suspension thing, which just makes me lol. The Brewers get a higher draft pick, and Braun gets a 2 month vacation from one of the worst teams in sports. How exactly is that a punishment?
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It’s a 3 million dollar vacation. I agree though, even with that it kind of feels he’s getting off easy.
I don’t have a hard time getting angry because doing it in the first place is bad enough for me. Lying about it just makes it worse. There’s also his statement that he now realizes he made mistakes. I don’t really understand that. Didn’t he realize he was cheating before he got suspended? Or is the mistake getting caught?
I’m not someone who gets outraged about this kind of thing but it is satisfying to so see Braun get a little bit of what he has coming to him.
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I don’t really care if they do it. Lots of football players do HGH (cough*cough*AdrianPeterson*cough*cough), and nobody cares because the NFL doesn’t test for it, so its not in the public’s eye.
If doing PEDs is the difference between getting paid a lot of money to play sports and having an office job, I’d be juicing all day every day.
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I don’t think juicing is the worst thing in the world, but the way I see it, it’s rightly against the rules, it is tested for and considered a major violation in baseball and so when you get caught you should be punished. When a guy gets caught flat out and then blames the test, he frankly comes off as an asshole to me.
You say you would have lied too, but not everyone does. When you get caught, you do have a choice. Some people say I’m sorry, accept their suspension and move on. They continue to play, rake in the money and everyone more or less moves on. Guys like Ryan Braun who come out swinging and act like they’re being persecuted when they and everyone else knows they’re guilty just rub me the wrong way.
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Not to mention what he put the guy through that did nothing wrong and just did his job taking the sample.
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Exactly. That kind of thing makes all the difference in the way I view guys like Chooch and Freddy Galvis on the one hand and Ryan Braun and Lance Armstrong on the other. I’m not really prepared to pass judgment on people who use PEDs, but when someone is willing to destroy other people to cover it up, without any apparent remorse, that’s on a whole different level.
The fact that Braun still hasn’t really shown any indication that he thinks what he did is a big deal is disturbing. He doesn’t owe me anything, but he should certainly be groveling to that guy who already has the misfortune of having to collect Ryan Braun’s pee for a living..
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Case A: Palmiero/McGwire/Clemens and Case B: Giambi/Pettitte…two different behaviors. Apparently admitting, being contrite and having remorse gets you second chances.
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As it should in my opinion.
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If I didn’t have a legitimate case against the test, then I wouldn’t have lied. But Braun did, so in his situation, I can’t fault him for lying. If he hadn’t have lied, his ability to get off on a “technicality” probably would have gone out the window.
He couldn’t have (rightfully) appealed (and won), and then say, “yeah, the test was BS, but I did actually cheat”. That would have been pointless.
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I don’t know that you can appeal rightfully if you’re guilty. The right thing would have been to serve his suspension.
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“If doing PEDs is the difference between getting paid a lot of money to play sports and having an office job, I’d be juicing all day every day.”
That told me all I needed to know about your integrity and character. If that’s how you feel, then your viewpoint on the Braun situation makes total sense.
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A semi- noteworthy point, Lannon also has 1 more year of team control.
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More than semi-noteworthy. A very cheap but solid 5th starter for 2014…not something to give away. Totally different than M. Young who he is paired with in the article.
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Oh shoot – he was a super 2. Missed that. He’s Arb 4 this year. Either way, I don’t think you need him and Kendrick and Pettibone and Morgan, Martin, Cloyd, Biddle, Rosin after Cole and Cliff, in a year (2014) where your team is unlikely to contend. That’s a reasonably strong first 10 starters, before we even consider that they might just bring Doc back if he seems healthy, and he wants to come back to a seemingly non-playoff team.
Were I Doc, I would take a 1 year deal in 2014 (with PHL or elsewhere), and allow myself to be traded at the deadline. Could net him a WS run and a payday for 2015 if he’s at all healthy. Whether he wants to come here or go elsewhere is unknown, as far as I know. He’s not going to talk about that, likely, until after this season.
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I would not trade Lannan in general. Due to being out some of this year he will not reach his incentive bonuses. He is a good 4th starter who will likely cost less than $5M next year through arbitration. That still makes him tradeable next season if the young guys are lights out but keeps a veteran/consistent presence in the rotation with Hamels and Lee.
I’d much rather look to trade Kendrick who performance will likely be just a bit better but who’d likely get $8M in arbitration and has youth on his side to enhance his value to another team. Also he is having a career year of sorts which might also be selling high. His value is most likely best to a team with limited payroll who wants stability for a 3rd starter. He has control for another year which limits the financial risk. A team like that might be willing to give up a young piece or two with the Phillies thinking he might regress back to a 5th starter profile.
Halladay on a qualifing offer makes sense to me assuming he pitches average at the end of this season. It would make it costly for another team to sign him. $14M might be a bit much for Phillies (Dan Haren) but the upside could be significant. He is another player (potential HOF) who fans would pay to watch.
For 2014 Phillies could have Lee, Hamels, Halladay, Lannan, and Pettibone. Cloyd is bad, Martin will be a reliever. Morgan is likely to be then “#6” guy if his arm is okay. Biddle would be a midseason guy at best and Rosin is just controlled filler, just a slight bit better than Cloyd.
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Cloyd gets little respect on this site, probably because he doesn’t light up the radar gun. However, if you look at his major league record this year, he pitched well (allowing 2 earned runs or less) in 5 of his 6 starts. I discount his AAA performance because I would also be disheartened if i were sent down after performing that well.
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4.73 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 4.06 FIP, but a 5.26 xFIP due to his career low HR/9 rate. His major league stats are extreme look
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Can we stop with the Tyler Cloyd nonsense? If you had a major league staff made up of Tyler Cloyds you’d lose 130 games a year. He’s the very model of a AAAA pitcher in fact, this year he’s not much of a AAA pitcher.
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Amen catch. Ever time I HEAR cloyd name, i think of all the swindle talk on here, how did that work out. the guys isnt a major league starter or relief pitcher,
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Starting pitching isn’t a volume business, its a quality busness. None of Martin, Cloyd, Biddle or Rosin will be ready next year and Morgan has missed an awful lot of time this year so he won’t be ready early in the year either. If you think you’re assured that any of these guys will be better than KK or Lannan next year, I don’t agree with you. I don’t want Doc back because he’s going to cost more than he’s worth. I can’t see any scenario where he comes back for less money than he’s worth next year.
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I don’t think they’re going to be better, I just think that for a team that looks like a non-contender, there’s room to work with those guys as your list of possible injury replacements for any of the first 4 or 5 guys going down. If your rotation is Cliff, Cole, Lannan or Kendrick, Pettibone and probably Morgan as the 5th starter, (or fill in with an older FA on an incentive-laden deal). I’m ok with that for 2014, and the back-up options are fair. Assume Morgan starts in the majors, that leaves you with Martin, (meh) and Cloyd as reasonably ready for the bigs, Biddle as an option basically any time after the super 2 date, (so maybe mid-June), and the rest. I’m not unhappy with that situation.
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My last point (and this one’s kinda ridiculous, but its at least a little tongue in cheek). Ryan Howard should be on team mandate to get shot full of roids. The absolute worst thing that could happen would be for him to get suspended 50 games, to which I say, who cares? That won’t harm the Phillies at all since he provides basically no value when he’s playing as it is. Best case scenerio though, is you turn the guy into a somewhat useful player again.
No reason not to make that happen Rube!
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Roids aren’t going to heal his leg and they aren’t going to help his pitch recognition against lefties or righties for that matter.
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don’t players use HGH for healing purposes?
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Roids aren’t HGH.
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It’ll probably speed up his bat though, which would help him hit balls he otherwise wouldn’t be able to.
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Throw in Adderall and he could be an all-star again.
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Interesting article on Crashburn alley at ESPN. Basically, he had a long list of premium talent who have signed contract extensions at a younger age. His point was that even with the tv deal coming, they are going to have a lot of money but no one to spend it on unless they overpay for players like the Angels unless they start developing the farm system better. He was making the argument to sell at the deadline.
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Even if unable to get quality through Free Agency, it is possible with lots of extra money to spend, that the Phillies can be a dumping ground for those contracts which become bad.
Have lots of money is always good. Spending it wisely is much better though.
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its going to be awhile. I didnt read the article, but I assume it says something about Trout, Harper and Stanton reaching FA in 5 years. God knows what MLB contracts will be like then. Just look where we were 5 years ago.
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As I understand it, the only way we would get a draft pick for Utley leaving is if we offer him 13+M and he turns it down. How likely is that to happen?
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Well let’s see. Offer him 13 million? 100% Him turning it down? Probably close to 100%, but on the off off chance that he didn’t, getting him on a one year deal for that amount would be a huge win for the franchise. Huge.
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lets say Utley is a 3 win player for the next 2 years. 4 million a win gives us about 12 million annual. Probably the market will drive that up to 3 years or 3.5 mill more annually for 2. That is what I assume is going to happen. The dodgers are fricken wild card now.
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They should trade M Young because he has value right now, isn’t in their plans for next year, and Asche is ready to come up and could platoon with Frandsen. They should get a reliever who is controlled for at least next year and possibly the year after. Lee should definitely stay if they hope to contend next year and I think they can, if they can find a rightfielder. I would trade Pap if they can get back something. There’s too much money tied up in him and I would love to move those costs. Then go and trade for a lesser name closer on the market who has a good arm. Doc will be back next month but I don’t expect very much from him. I would definitely not trade KK or Lannan because I think both are good values. The hard decisions for me are Chase and Chooch. I think Chooch is done and I would move him right now because I think he has value for some teams. Try to get another reliever or a sub OF. I’d take a shot with Kratz and Rupp for a year and hope Joseph steps up next year in AAA to be ready in 2015. Its so hard thinking about Chase in another uniform that I’d probably keep him and try to extend him 2 more years right now. What they get now wouldn’t be much more than the comp pick anyway and I’d happily pay him the $14M for 1 year. With Doc’s $20M, Pap’s money, M Young’s $5M, Chooch’s money, and D Young’s money, they should be able to ghet a big bat to play RF, a decent closer, another starter, another reliever, and an upgrade over Nix.
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trade young, ruiz, papelbon, rollins, lannan
callup asche, rupp, aumont, galvis, morgan
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yes, yes, yes,?,?
yes,yes,yes,yes,?
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Rollins has 10-5 Rights so he can’t be traded unless he approves the trade which means it will not happen most likely because he will refuse to leave the Phillies.
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Aumont’s not in AAA because he’s blocked … he’s there because he struggles with control and refuses to make the changes necessary for long term success. Neither Rupp nor Morgan are ready at this point. I agree with giving Asche a callup if Young gets traded.
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It’s too bad Roy Halladay cannot sit down with Aumont and really set him straight. There are at least two pitchers that I know of who said their career was turned around when Nolan Ryan took them aside and had words with them. One was Curt Schilling (of this I am certain) and the other, I believe, was Randy Johnson. Aumont has similar “stuff” to Halladay. Kendrick was smart enough to follow Roy around like a puppy for two years. Aumont should do the same – they have similar builds and actually have similar nasty stuff a(Aumont’s stuff is better than Halladay at his peak, but Hallday’s command and smarts were off the charts, which made him a superior pitcher) and both pitch with a 3/4 delivery. I don’t think Phillippe is a bad guy, but he’s got to wake up and work things out.
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Catch, do you some link to Nolan Ryan counseling these players? It would be a very interesting article to read.
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Johnson reference. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_Johnson. Will try to find something for Schilling – as I recall Schilling was acting like a dufus at the time and Nolan showed him some tough love.
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Aumont has had no command his entire career. Unless Roy is able to retool his entire mechanics thats no the problem.
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Why do we offer Papelbon as a suggestion? We all know that closers are overvalued, but the people who make the decisions do not. In fact, they grabbed him so quickly last year that they lost a draft pick for it.
I think they will definitely trade Mike Young, and maybe Rollins. Rollins may fetch a surprisingly decent return, and they have Galvis waiting around in AAA.
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MLBTR:
‘………but surprise reports earlier this morning said that the Dodgers were out of the running for prized Cuban right-hander Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. This is just my speculation, but perhaps Dodgers GM Ned Colletti and his staff have shifted their focus to a position player due to their depth at starting pitcher.’……..lets go Ruben step up to the table.
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BA had an interesting write up on Gonzalez today. Some scouts think he could be a #3 starters while other view him as middle reliever. Will be curious how much he gets.
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The Cuban SS is the guy they’re after.
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I posted a thought similar to this in a thread a few days ago, but thought I’d revisit it as the deadline nears. I’m not a proponent of the Phillies being sellers. However, if they were to listen to offers on players like Papelbon or Lee, I think they could maximize their return by eating large portions of these players’ salaries.
My thinking goes like this: If they’re selling these assets, knowing there aren’t going to be a lot of big ticket coveted free agents on the market the next few years, then they’re going with a younger, inexpensive roster. Why not bite the bullet, absorb half of the money from contracts for some of these guys, and see if you can get a big time prospect? I’ll bet Detroit is far more willing to listen on Papelbon-for-Castellanos if half his remaining salary is absorbed. Would the Cards be willing to part with Taveras or Wacha for 2 1/2 years of Cliff Lee at $10M a year? I don’t know, but it would be a conversation starter.
Again, I’m not advocating the Phils trade Lee in particular. But if they do look down that avenue, they might as well act like the big market team they now are, throw some money into the equation and come back with real impact prospects, rather than the second tier guys that are usually on the block for a reason.
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I think I would look to do that kind of thing with Lee. If the Phillies trade him now, they will have gotten 2.5 excellent years out of him and avoided the riskiest and most expensive years of his deal. He turns 35 next month and he has some history of back problems. If they can get good return, that’s pretty much as good a scenario as they could have hoped for when signing him at age 32.
The Phillies just aren’t going to be a good team in the immediate future. I think anywhere you can pick up an impact prospect you have to try to do it. For the same reason, they should be more aggressive than usual in signing international players. With the scarcity of big time free agents, they have to look to get any advantage they can in building the team’s next core.
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I don’t want to trade Utley. I think he’s just starting to get healthy again, is still a very good baseball player, and is pretty much a franchise icon. I’d keep him and hope he is amenable to a two- or three-year deal.
Same with Ruiz, though I’d rather go year to year on him. Might do a year and an option. Anything more, and let him walk in the offseason.
I don’t think the deadline offers on those guys will be so compelling that they will be inclined to move them. I think they still have good baseball left in them and management wants to keep a few of the core players in house as they transition to a new core group. Utley is one of those guys, as far as I’m concerned. He might be the only one, if they could only dump Howard and his contract.
I’d like to see three or four Halladay starts at the end of the season and have them make a call then about a qualifying offer or a maybe a two-year deal. No interest in peddling Cliff Lee.
Otherwise, I want them to sell. Michael Young, Delmon Young, Jonathan Papelbon, Kyle Kendrick — let’s move them out for prospects, not middle relievers or “major league ready” talent.. If there is a good offer for Rollins, maybe.move him as well. If they have to add a good prospect to a Papelbon package to Detroit to pry Castellanos loose, then do it. I’d be pretty much open to adding any prospect not named Biddle, Franco, Asche or Crawford. Yes, that includes Roman Quinn. If they didn’t already have Cabrera, I might even be inclined to dangle Franco. That’s how much I want Castellanos and want to be rid of Papelbon’s contract. I know it’s not going to happen, but I’m going to cling to my pipe dream of getting rid of Pap’s contract and getting a corner OF to pair with Brown going forward.
A Brown, Castellanos, Revere outfield would be something that would advance the rebuild pretty quickly.
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Lets say Rube decides to sell- what is the best they could do? Give it your best shot, without worrying about ridicule…
Since their demotions, 23 year olds Cesar Hernandez and Freddy Galvis have put up eye-popping numbers in Lehigh Valley, which are making them look like a viable long-term middle infield replacements. This isn’t the first time Cesar has gotten hot, which makes Freddy’s production even more impressive. We’ve always said Galvis’s glove would make him an an above-average shortstop if his bat came close to average.and thats suddenly seeming like a possibility.
Could Freddy Galvis turn into a Andrelton Simmons or Elvis Andrus type player? Could Cesar Hernandez hit .280 and steal 25-30 bases? If so, its time to see what Rollins and Utley could bring back.
I’m also all for trading Cliff Lee, because he’s 35 and won’t bring back a decent return after this season. Same goes for Ruiz and Young. Might as well trade Papelbon too, because he’ll completely quit on a rebuilding club and become un-tradeable. Kendricks should be worth at least a top 5-10 prospect from a contender in need of a 4th starter. Lannan should be worth a top 10-15 prospect from a similar club in need of a #5.
A lineup consisting of (not in order)
CF Revere
2B Hernandez
LF Brown
1B Howard/Ruf
3B Asche
C Kratz
SS Galvis
…Could produce similar (admittedly mediocre) results with an average to above-average RF batting 5th.
Don’t bother attacking my reasoning, because its all we have to work with…what moves should be made with an eye on the future? Trading all those guys should bring enough assets to alter this teams future.
Give it your best shot. I will as well eventually,
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I’m looking at Freddy’s AAA numbers and my eyes are still firmly in their sockets. What am I missing?
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+1 … an 18 percent K-rate for a light hitting shortstop made my eyes bug a little. 🙂
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Yikes, that line-up is horrible!!!!!! If the goal is to tank things through 2016, then let’s start these guys. It certainly convinces me that the retention of Chase Utley is absolutely essential.
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So, so much that I disagree with …. starting with the fact that I don’t want to become the Marlins, and ending with the fact that trading those guys likely WON”T bring back significant assets (except maybe for Lee). But no more on those points; we’ve been over those grounds before.
But specifically on that horrible lineup, with one (one) above average major league hitter (Brown). First of all assuming an “average to above average right fielder” reminds me of the people stuck on a desert island with a crate of canned food, and the economist among them proposes that the solution to their problem is to “assume a can opener.” But I’ll say this: even with this mysterious right fielder, no, that line up won’t be anywhere near as good as the current bunch. But even that is not a fair comparison. Ruiz is probably gone regardless, and Asche the third baseman. So the real changes you’re making are the middle infield changes, and your changes are, on offense, a huge downgrade. On offense alone, probably in the vicinity of 40 runs over the course of a season. Maybe more.
And all of this ignores the biggest problem, which is that losing Lee by itself costs you 6 to 8 wins.
Trade those guys away and you’re looking at a team that will struggle to get 70 wins next year, and is an injury or two away from 100 losses.
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that lineup loses 90 games IMO
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Optimistically
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Jayson Stark just put out an article on this deadline’s “shortage of players”::
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings130723/driving-forces-lackluster-mlb-trade-market
Could the lack of available talent make selling more worthwhile?
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Depends on who you’re selling and what their contract is(and how much you would be willing to kick in). I think this year it is a sellers market, but I think unless you’re talking about high impact players it really only improves the prospect you get back maybe half a letter grade or a bit more.
In a normal trade market Delmon Young probably gets you a C level prospect. In this market it may be a C+ to possible B-.
Michael Young is probably close to a B- prospect in a normal year, but in this market he could be B to B+ prospect.
Cliff Lee probably would get a better return this year than at last years deadline. You had Greinke available last year. This year there’s no real #1 guy out there, but the team that would get the biggest inflated return IMO is someone with a premium bat. The Giants might find someone dumb enough to give something close to Ruben Amaro’s Pence debacle.
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Well that is removing about 6 of our 8 or 9 best players, many of whom are leaving regardless, without factoring in any return. The whole point of the exercise is to see what can be added to those players- because like it or not, that is essentially the Phillies lineup without Utley and Rollins.
i appreciate your vigilance policing every post, but this mysterious RF could certainly arrive in the course of selling off most of our most prized assets. It wouldn’t be inconceivable that the Dodgers might give up Joc Pederson in a Cliff Lee deal, and that he would then be starting in RF next season. The question is, whether someone like Dugan could replicate Pederson’s production half a year later. Also, whether or not to expand the deal, to involve Utley and Zach Lee, which was recently (infamously) proposed on ESPN.
We can’t trade everyone, nor would it be prudent to do so, but Rube certainly should explore every option. If its wrong to speculate on what this club should do at the deadline, then what’s the point of talking baseball.
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No one is trying to police you. We’re disagreeing with you.
Assuming you are the same anon, you went from quite explicitly advocating trading all of them to your current position. Can’t say I disagree much with exploring options. It’s quite different than trading almost all of the good players.
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The players I “explicitly advocated” trading were Lee, Young, Ruiz, Papelbon, Lannan and Kendrick. I also said Galvis and Hernandez were starting to look like viable major leaguers, which might imply trading Rollins and Utley, but nowhere was that made “explicit”. All I was looking to do was discuss possible moves that could accelerate this rebuilding process. Of course discussing every possible move entertains many that shouldn’t happen. However, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be considered.
Lee is the only piece that could fetch a franchise-altering return, and being 35 years old, the window to make such a trade is rapidly closing.
Papelbon should also be moved because like Lee, he’ll soon become un-tradeable.
Utley and Rollins should be made available, but certainly don’t need to go if the return is not deemed adequate.
Rube should also entertain offers for Young, Kendricks, Lannan and Ruiz, but again, I’m not implying that any or all of them must be traded. I just think Rube should consider offers for those players and therefore we should talk about what potential trades for any of them might look like.
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I re-read your post. I see your point, but you really weren’t very clear – obviously I’m not the only one who (slightly) misread it. And why did we do so? Your proposed lineup, which assumed the trade of all players. And, contrary to your post, that is a god awful lineup.
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Papelbon should be kept until the waiver deadline. If, as many expect, the Phillies are certainly out of the race, then Phillies may get a good return for him if there is a team who really needs him. The current options for a closer are horrible internally for the Phillies so trading him now is an absolute sell tactic which I would not risk.
The Youngs are replaceable.
I think Ruiz is undervalued now, I do think he will be better next year, though many disagree.
Kendrick/Lannan could be traded in the offseason for about the same as they’d get now.
Utley is an icon and Phillies would have to be blown away to trade him.
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Good points all around. What about Lee?
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I think Lee is irreplaceable. How many consistent 5WAR pitchers are there? The salary is enormous but he is an ace who likes Philly so it’d be hard to give him up even for a stud prospect, who still may not work out.
I think Philly will try re-load, not rebuild, and the only thing they have going for them in my opinion are the stud pitchers. Again Lee might be an option for trade in August if Phillies truly give up and do not want to risk a regression by Lee next season.
Phillies are paying ALOT of money to stars but they are a big market team. They are not going to get Bundy or Strasburg who are true ace level youngsters so I cannot see a scenario where Lee is traded until next season’s deadline.
I’d send out Hamels, Lee, Halladay, Kendrick or Lannan, and Pettibone next season (at cost of about $70M!). Trade whoever 4th gets the best return (probably Kendrick) in offseason for best avallable prospect.
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Papelbon sitting at 90 mph last appearance is disconcerting. If we can see how bad his stuff is at this point, imagine what in game scouts are seeing. His stuff is average now. If they can get off the hook for any money the prospect shouldnt matter. 2010 Papelbon gets Avasail Garcia, 2013 Papelbon gets a future big leaguer in triple A and prospect or 2 at the lower levels.
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IMO, the Phillies aren’t that far away. The NL East stinks. They’ll have a little over $50 million this off season. What do they have to do:
Platoon Howard with Ruff. Sucks, but your stuck with his $25 AAV. He can’t hit lefties, Period.
Get what you can for M. and D. Young since they won’t be back. Frandsen is just as good as M. and anyone is as good as D..
See if anyone will take Papplebon off your hands. Only has 2 years left if he doesn’t vest.
At all costs get a RH Power bat in RF.
Get what you can for Rollins if he’ll agree to go to Oakland or San Fran. Take anything.
Sign Utley and Chooch to 1 year incentive heavy deals.
if they can trae Papplebon look to acquire 2 or 3 upgrades in the Pen.
And a lot more
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Rollins has 10-5 rights trade not going to happen probably.
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Going to a winner can be appealing.
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What makes you think Utley would sign a one year incentive-heavy deal? Utley will probably accumulate 5-5.5 fWAR by the end of the year. I’m sure some team would offer him a 3+ year deal.
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Agree that RH power bat has been considered a weakness since Burrell left.
However, that philosophy is what made the Phillies overpay for Hunter Pence… who by the way is likely the best RH power hitter available this offseason and also plays RF.
What would you be willing to offer him – at all costs… 3 years $45M?
Other FAs: Choo is OBP lefty, Betran is old switch-hitter, and Nelson Cruz will likely be suspended.
Can Phillies just put Ruf out there? I figure he will get exposed eventually but I think he has been on-base in every major league start. Against Lefties Mayberry goes to RF, Ruf to 1B, and Howard as a killer PH in the late innings.
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This. I bet Utley gets at least 3/36 on the open market. Maybe a homtown discount for 3/30 or preferably 2/25 with an option. Phils have money to spend and with little help in the FA market I’d like to see it happen.
Outside of that, I agree with psujoe’s comment in its entirety
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Oops…meant as a reply to beantown’s comment….
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In general I agree with your plans for Howard and Youngs. I think Utley and Ruiz will need 2 yr with option deals. Rollins is still quite good so a trade would have to be a BIG return.
I am still on fence with Papelbon. If Phillies had ANYONE who could at least pretend to fill in at closer (if Adams was healthy) I’d be much happier trading him.
I know the contract sucks but Phillies have a bunch of money, why get that much worse just to save money?
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The phillies are imo. a really bad team. you say they arent far off. Rollins is a shell of what he once was, howard is a disaster and we are stuck with him. we have no third basemen, and watching asche, offense is not going to be as good as young, better d though, brown is our only power bat outfielder, we have no catcher and chooch without drugs has no power,our bullpen is a disaster, our starters are not elite, You must have missed the mets series, our aces stunk., and lee is giving up homeruns a lot, so is cole, kenricks is a okay starter, who will want a committment of at least 8-10 million a year. pettibone has been a suprise, and lannan is a fifth starter, nothing special, so to sum it up we have no offense, bad defense, no power in the outfield, no bullpen, and two elite starters who cant beat the mets starters, or the washington nationals , gonzalez is better than lee or hamels and zimmerman is right behind and they have strasburg, so with that fifty million can you find better starters, better bullpen, power hitters, better defense, and a better gm.
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Roccom, how about that Domonic Brown? You ripped him long and hard all ST. Now you’re singing his praises. Quite the 180.
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I am saying he. right now is there only power bat . is that so wrong. IMO the jury is still out if he is a allstar or just 15- 20 homerun, 250 hitter, This is only his first full year,
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Technically the jury is in on if he is an allstar…he is. That said, I kind of agree with you that it’s too soon to say whether he’ll be merely good or very good.
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Take “anything” for Rollins??!! Really scratching my head on this one. I can see the case for trading him if they get a good return, but he is still a roughly average shortstop – more than that if some of the power comes back, which is quite possible, sample size and all that, he’s just a year removed from a 23 HR season – and Galvis is looking more and more like a bench player. Yeah, they save a few bucks, but to what purpose, given their current payroll flexibility combined with a lousy upcoming FA market.
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This time of year, it becomes less about making deals that make sense and more about trading players away in order to make the team look different, as if that will somehow magically improve the roster.
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It is a shame they can’t move Rollins. The Cardinals are looking for a shortstop and are apparently offering Carlos Martinez to the White Sox for Alexi Ramierz. I think Rollins is better and cheaper. The Phillies could use an arm like Ramirez.
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The White Sox should hurry up before the Cards change their minds…
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Wait what? An arm like Ramirez?
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For the bullpen?
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Think he meant an arm like ‘Martinez’
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I ment Martinez. Opps
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Watching the same rumor develop – you would have to think that the Cards would be interested in Jimmy if they’re interested in Alexei. There’s an extra year of control with Ramirez, or possibly two extra years if the team option is exercised and Jimmy’s option doesn’t vest. But Ramirez is 31 and will make just about $10mil per season over the next three. There’s a difference here but negligible. You’d have to take that deal in a heartbeat if the Cards offered us Carlos for Jimmy
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Carlos is the real deal https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5b3bAR8dywY you’re damn skippy you would do that trade.
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I’ve been listening a bit to Spike Eskin (he’s pretty much the only Philly sports radio personality with half a brain) and he’s made some pretty solid points about the Phillies. His point is essentially that the Phillies are not stupid (as much as we may want to think otherwise). They know that they are not a good team and the prospects for the future of the current roster are not bright. Therefore, they could go two ways. They could sell assets and attempt to rebuild the farm to ensure potential for the future or they could continue to field of a team of aging and ineffective “names” that wins about 80 games a year. It all comes down to what the team thinks about the intelligence level of the fanbase. They do not believe that we are smart enough to realize that the team cannot compete. They think that we are satisfied with competing for the 2nd Wild Card. They think that we won’t show up to watch young talent. They are clearly victims of their own success and honestly the clear pandering to and lack of respect for the fans is disturbing to me.
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Ugh. As always the philly media is drama addicted.
What “ineffective” names is he referring to? Utley? Lee? Even Rollins is better in the short term than Galvis. If he’s referring to Howard I would love to hear his plan for getting rid of him. If he’s referring to Papalban (though I wouldn’t consider him “ineffective”) MYoung and D Young, then by all means.
If this team gets a bona fide corner OF in the offseason plus a couple of bullpen pieces, re-signs Utley, goes with an Asche/Frandsen platoon at 3rd and adds another OF bat, maybe another SP, they’ll be better than an 80 win team until (hopefully) help from the farm can arrive.
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The ineffective comment was me editorializing what he said. I agree 100%. His point is that the team must remove emotion from their decision making. Emotions are for fans not the front office. Its not about whether these players are good now, but continuing to hitch your wagon to older players will eventually lead the team into a very deep hole. Selling is not an exact science but when you have a 6% chance to make the playoffs and have played at or below .500 for over a calender year its pretty clear what this team is. The Phillies are in a very awkward position right now. I get that. They have money to spend (and will have more following the new TV deal) but the free agent market will be underwhelming at best in future years. By refusing to anticipate the decline of the current core they have missed on opportunities to capitalize on assets. Now other teams have locked up the majority of their young talent and there just aren’t opportunities to get those players (without trading prospects that we don’t have). Its a very tough spot to be in and I honestly don’t know how they can fix it. There might not be a right answer.
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“below .500 for over a calender year”
They’re actually 85-77 over their last 162 🙂
Is there cause to believe they can go 36-26 to finish? Only if you think last year’s performance is cause. Would that get in the playoffs? Probably not.
So what. At least I’m not a Cubs fan.
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That was me.
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The Phillies will never be the Astros. It doesn’t matter how many prospects we put on the field there will still be a high payroll. So 60-70 wins is just not ever going to happen. That’s not the issue. The issue is that 80-85 wins ian’t enough to be a serious contender year-in and year-out either. The goal is to win the WS right? What about the trajectory of this team gives you any confidence that will happen in the next few years?
I’m not of the belief that the team should be “blown up”. However, I do believe that proper management of assets with a sound strategy that focuses on selling high and buying low on selected players can work to rebuild the talent level of the team.
Prospects are obviously an inexact science but one thing that people forget is that just because we trade for a bunch of prospects does not mean that we intend to ever see them play for the Phillies. It takes prospects to acquire young MLB talent in this current climate.
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With the current state of the free agent market, the team could indeed become the Astros. Not saying it’s likely, but they could. You say you’re not in the “blow it up” camp, but if they did, that’s the short term destination.
You talk about selling high and buying low, which is great in theory, but in practice I don’t see us being in the position to do either. Yeah, there are some players who should go, but who probably won’t get us much in the way of assets in return. But I see only one guy who MIGHT get us some good assets – Lee – and IMO because of the contract, I don’t see us being able to get ENOUGH assets to justify the loss of 6 to 8 wins per year that trading him would mean. As for Papelbon, I was once optimistic enough to think he could bring us some assets, but at this point I think the anonomous AL exec is correct – he is virtually untradable.
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I agree completely with what you say here. Which is exactly why I feel so strongly that the Phillies have backed themselves into a corner. I really don’t see any logical alternative to the few scenarios laid out already that end up in the Phillies getting any better anytime soon.
That taken into account, why not buy a few lottery tickets while you can?
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Well sure. But for whom?
They aren’t even getting a lottery ticket for D. Young
They might get a lottery ticket for M. Young. I will indeed be displeased if he is still on the roster a week from now.
Ruiz should get them a lottery ticket. This is a somewhat tough call, and depends in part upon facts that we are not a party to (i.e., contract negotiations). Given the dearth of options at catcher, if they can sign Ruiz to a reasonable short term deal, that MIGHT beat a lottery ticket in return. Somewhat conflicted about this.
Papelbon … my how perceptions have changed. People were talking about Castellanos at one point. Now you might not be able to give him away. For the record, though, I am in favor of trading him if they can.
Lannan might get you a lottery ticket. I would take that.
Then you get to a number of players for whom you could get a lottery ticket or maybe more. From (IMO) lowest trade value to highest, Rollins/Kendrick/Utley/Lee. Sure you see what the market is for those guys, and some are more tradeable than others. But I’d want more than a lottery ticket for each of them. Much more in the cases of Lee and Utley.
And then there is Howard who is untradable.
Now, I admit that the team, at least per its public statements, seems disinclined to make even the obvious moves. But I’m not sure it makes a huge difference.
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I do think there is another dynamic here also. Note that I am only going by the above indirect report of Eskin’s comments, so I don’t know if this reinforces or contradicts them. But it is certainly something to keep in mind considering that, at least on this site, the people most vocal about “tearing things down,” or at least being aggressive sellers, ALSO for the most part are advocates of getting “major league ready” talent in return.
The organization is, I think, for reasons good and bad, constrained (by fan sentiment among other concerns) to avoid going into a full rebuild mode. Ignore for a moment whether that is a good or a bad thing. But that puts serious constraints upon trades. It means avoiding “lottery tickets” and other players who aren’t close to “major league ready.” But the major league ready talent that you’re going to get for these guys is going to be mediocre at best. Except MAYBE for Lee, and even there I think we’re kidding ourselves about the likely return for him.
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I agree both Eskins are idiots. The Phillies are more concerned about the TV deal than they are fan gates at this point. A TV deal once signed is guaranteed money so whatever moves they are making/planning I am sure its with getting that deal done that motivates them.
Not to say they are not concerned with keeping fans in the seats but I think its secondary at this stage. A bird in the hand so to speak.
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When you say the ‘Phillies’, what you mean is Montgomery, Giles , the Betz’ and the Buck families. They are the four identities that make the decision on finances
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I agree they wont come out to watch aaaa players, But how long will they come out to watch a aging, underman team like the one amaro has put together. are we that stupid to think this team can even make the playoffs.??? I guess so.
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latest from MLBTradeRumors.com:
_The Phillies’ next five games “will determine Michael Young’s fate more than anyone else on their roster,” said one executive who has talked to the club. Young is seen as “pretty much a lock” to be dealt if the Phils struggle during their road trip through St. Louis and Detroit this week. The Phillies dropped a 4-1 result to the Cardinals last night.
_Jonathan Papelbon hasn’t been made available by the Phillies but even if he was, one AL executive thinks Papelbon’s contract makes him “practically untradable.”
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Any reason to believe a new commentator team will come with the new TV deal? I know we have our complaints, but here in Washington it’s lightyears more horrible.
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How about that weird white sox guy? “stretch stretch put it on the boooorrrrreeeeeeeedddd!!!”
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Mini Mart recalled. Blah!
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What does this team see in Mini Mart that no one else can see? I realize that he has been hitting in AAA but he has had numerous big league opportunities and has failed every time. Clearly there is something there that they like (I can only assume it’s his glove) but his complete inability to hit really prevents him from having any real value. I find this mystifying from a team that claims it is trying to make the playoffs.
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If history repeats itself, the Phillies make a momentum building trade. They have done so for the past six years starting in 2006. It could simply mean addition by subtraction, much like 2006 and to a lesser extent last year. Brown didn’t exactly light it up and Mayberry was exactly who we knew. I like the idea of unloading Lannan to keep Pettibone in the rotaton with Halladay coming back. Too bad Lannan couldn’t keep his streak going tonight. It could have been a nice boost to his trade value. Kendrick has also come down to earth, but still has a solid value as a # 4 SP under another year of control. I am not convinced of giving him an extension, like the Phillies tend to do for most guys in arbitration. My opinion is we can find a cost effective solution in FA or down at the farm.
Trade M. Young to the Red Sox or Dodgers to get a decent reliever and bring up C. Asche. Perhaps D. Young could be a waiver trade guy in August allowing Ruff play out the season in LF.
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Seems MLB.Com has made some changes. Jon Mayo has been replaced on their International venue with Jesse Sanchez.
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I’ve read the majority of the comments in this thread, but I apologize if someone already broached this topic. As a fan of both the Phillies (since 92) and Oakland A’s (Since 89), I spend lots of time each day following the minors for both squads.
Simple question, would you trade Chase Utley for Michael Choice? He’s a former #10 overall pick by Oakland, Power Hitting Corner Outfielder that you could pare with Dom Brown for the next 5-6 years. A’s fans are borderline desperate to acquire Utley (although I think them acquiring Rollins makes more sense).
So what do you guys think? Utley for Choice ?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=choice001mic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Choice
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Just glancing at the numbers, pass. With the caveat that maybe the power will still come. But right now he doesn’t look like he’s going to be all that special. And his falling out of the top 100 suggests that the scouts agree with my impression of the numbers.
Mind you, I’m not saying that it is not a fair deal. IMO Utley shouldn’t be traded unless the other team significantly overpays. Choice would be an overpay but not enough of one.
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I think Choice is better than his current numbers indicate, I think he can OPS 800 in the majors with solid COF defense, and he’s a right handed bat which looks like it might be beneficial, but then again, I’ve been following him since the day he was drafted and may be overrating him.
I agree with not trading him unless its an overpay, but I HATE the “not listening on Utley” stance alluded to by Salisbury. Just gauging the AthleticsNation blog, they went from proposing Seth Streich and Jemile Weeks a few weeks ago, to most people agreeing on giving up their #3 prospect today, which I think echoes the real increased interest by Major League GM’s.
Also, what is the likelihood of a scenario where Chase is traded to a contender and then re-signs with Philly in the off-season?
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The Phillies would need Michael Choice and a couple almost MLB ready pitchers from the A’s for Utley. I would consider that trade but I am not ownership who is afraid of trading their biggest attendance draw.
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It seems a moot point anyway if Salisbury is to be believed…
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I hear you, but from the A’s perspective. I don’t want to give up Choice who will probably replace Cespedes once he’s (unfortunately/probably) traded in a year and half. If I’m Beane and I finally concede to give up Choice, there is no way I’m giving up anything more than that save for an A-Ball lottery ticket for a few months of Utley.
I really don’t think he’ll be traded, but if people start upping the ante as desperation sinks in, you HAVE to listen.
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I want to add a perspective here which is pretty much absent, even though it (somewhat) disagrees with mine.
Around here you basically have two camps (I oversimplify a bit). Camp one thinks that you won’t get much for Utley and shouldn’t trade him. Camp 2 thinks you will get a lot for Utley and should trade him. This is not just an issue with Utley, but he seems the main focus of it.
Much of the national press has a different perspective. They (mostly) agree with me regarding return. They may note that, in some ways, it is a buyer’s market, and therefore be a perhaps a tiny bit more optimistic than I am about return but they start with the same baseline assumption that I do, i.e., that you generally don’t get premium talent for a rental. None of them are saying that the Phillies are getting a top tier talent for Utley.
But where they differ with me is in believing that the team should trade Utley (and possibly others) anyway. I disagree with that perspective, but it’s out there.
My guess is that that crowd would consider Choice for Utley an overpay that the Phillies should, if offered, snap up.
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seller’s market, that is
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What about the notion that the Phillies can trade Utley for something less than an Overpay, and just re-sign him in the off-season? I haven’t really seen that discussed much.
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Watching the Phillies against the Cards the last two nights has been an eye-opener. The Cards have the right approach at the plate, dial back their swings with two strikes, hit with men on base, make the key plays in the field. The Phillies have a poor approach at the plate, swing for the fences with two strikes, generally fail with men on base and mess up the key plays in the field. Their pitchers also walk too many batters. Why must Lannan walk the opposing pitcher leading off the inning? Why does DeFratus appear to walk the first batter he faces in every appearance? Doesn’t he warm up enough in the bullpen? The Cardinal relievers come in throwing strikes; the Philly relievers take 40 pitches to get through one inning.
The Cardinals have shown us what the Phillies need to become. They do not hit home runs, but they hit and they score. The entire culture of the Phillies needs to change and I think it starts with the top. I do not blame Charlie for this season as he has not been given what he needs and there have been a lot of injuries, but I would change the manager, the coaching staff and a lot of the coaches and managers in the minor league system. The Cardinals play the game properly but the Phillies don’t and they need to fix it at the minor and major league levels. Trading a player here or there is not going to matter as long as the team philosophy doesn’t update.
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Nothing less than Profar, RAJ!
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/07/26/the-rangers-are-considering-bringing-back-michael-young/
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I am thinking that there is a stronger case to trade Rollins right now based on his hitting decline and the numbers Galvis is putting up in AAA. The team and Jimmy for that matter have a history of stronger second half, but it seems he won’t be close to last years numbers and Galvis potential is lowering his WAR value. See here: http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/4258/jimmy-rollins
My that argument if hitting and WAR, Utley would be extended. Just not for 3 years at the money that is being reporting out there. Three years with escalators, but fully guaranteed.
I would now like to Galvis (hoping he can stay clean) and Asche starting everyday while jettisoning Rollins and M. Young.
Hernandez can then take the role of super utility guy next year until Utley is ready departure in 2015.
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but not fully guaranteed*
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So I don’t entirely agree about Rollins but I can see where you are coming from. But I scratch my head about the assumption that “the numbers Galvis is putting up in AAA” are a factor supporting a trade of Rollins. It seems to me that the contrary is the case. K rate 19.6%, BB rate 4.7%, a little pop but no more than we’ve seen before … what is there to like? His AAA numbers seems to me to confirm that Galvis (at this point, anyway) is what many people thought he was – a utility guy.
I’ve actually been higher on Galvis than most people have been – in fact I got a little carried away early in the season when he got off to a strong start. But at this point I’m not seeing anything to make me think he’s ready to step in as a regular. Maybe that will change, but nothing about his AAA performance this year moves the needle in that direction.
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Here we go …
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/phillies-to-listen-to-offers-on-cliff-lee.html
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Also … Cliff is scratched from tomorrow’s start.
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Scratching a pitcher 24 hrs before his start, in a critical series, and Amaro is not available for comment and during pregame Lee looks completely normal INTERESTING
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I feel like a broken record on this, but I’ll say it again: If the Phillies are going to seriously consider trading someone like Cliff Lee, they need to eat as much salary as it takes in order to ensure getting a real deal, bona fide prospect (Profar, Taveras, etc.) and other serious prospects. I won’t stand for Lee being traded again for three guys who might as well be Aumont/Gillies/Ramirez because the other team was willing to eat his salary. They’ve got the money: If they’re going to trade an asset like Cliff Lee, they need to get high ceiling, near majors talent, even if they’re digging into their wallets to do so.
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I Agree that the goal should be a big time prospect and I also think they should do it if that kind of deal is out there. As much as I like him, given his age and expense, I think it’s time to quit while you’re ahead on Cliff Lee.
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How often do you see top-10 prospects get traded?
The good news for the Phillies is that the teams most interested in Cliff Lee are likely the Red Sox, Cardinals, Pirates, Dodgers, Indians. Several of those teams have pretty deep farm systems with multiple top-50/75 guys. Even if the Pirates said Jameson Taillon/Gregor Polanco is off the table. You could still make a deal with other top guys. Same with the Red Sox and the Cards. Dodgers farm system has come around and they lack a real top-10 guy. So their entire system should be open.
The problem with the Dodgers is money. They aren’t going to care about the Phillies eating money to give up better prospects. They’d rather pay his entire salary and give up lesser prospects. Pirates and Cards may be the best two to look at if the Phillies were going to eat enough salary to bring them into the mix and bid against each other.
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The Dodgers money shouldn’t be a problem. That’s the point: IF the Phils are trading a stud pitcher like Lee, they should be looking at the best possible package of prospects available, price be damned. They want to retool for the future? This is the chance.
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It only makes sense to eat money because WHO are they going to spend the money on next year in FA? And it’s not like they don’t already own some cap space.
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I also agree. Cliff Lee at $25 million per year is not that attractive. At $10-15 million per year, he becomes extremely attractive.
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I’m not opposed to trading Cliff Lee or any of our players really. But it better be a heck of a package for guys like Lee or Utley.
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phillies signed alfredo gonzales for more than $50 million. i kid you not!!!
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That was unexpected..
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Excellent! An example of how a team with money can use the loopholes in the international amateur bonus pool limits to add talent. Good to see Phillies finally playing in this pool. The voice in the back of my head is saying “I sure do hope he’s worth it”, but kudos to management for taking the plunge. He supposedly is major league ready after just some tune-up starts in the minors.
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Let the handwringing cease
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One thing about Amaro is he’s not afraid to pull the trigger on a big deal. It’d be nice if fewer of them were bad deals, but still, he keeps it exciting.
This seems like a great signing
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Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez just got signed by the Phillies. Huge.
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I hope this isn’t an excuse to dump Lee and his salary for second tier prospects.
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Honestly it wouldn’t make sense if that’s which way they go. It’s not like this guy puts their payroll in jeopardy. Now having this guy in the organization might make getting rid of Lee or any other pitcher easier, but that shouldn’t mean that they would just dump him now.
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i only think they’ll trade lee if they get bowled over by an offer.
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Really didn’t see that one coming. Pretty exciting.
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Phillies acting like a Big market team!!!
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Middlebrooks likes Philly:
Will Middlebrooks, who’s spent the last month in Triple-A, wants to remain with the Red Sox, telling Tim Britton of the Providence Journal that the bright lights of Boston appeal to him. “I mean, everybody wants to play in the Bostons, the New Yorks, the Phillys – with the big-market teams, to win on that stage,” Middlebrooks said.
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I feel sorry for Ruiz….he obviously needs that attention deficit drug that he took illegally. He looks like he’s in another world most of the time.
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