Lehigh Valley went 4-5 this week, which ended with a 6-1 victory on Tuesday evening and now stand at 49-45, 4 games behind division leading Pawtucket in the Northern Division of the International League and one game behind Norfolk in the wildcard race. The ‘Pigs play three more at home this week, before traveling to Syracuse for a short two game series over the weekend prior to the all star break.
‘Pigs Prospects: Cesar Hernandez has been outstanding as of late, hitting over .400 during the past two weeks and continuing to steal bases with a very high success rate. Notably, Hernandez played a game in CF and has been regularly taking fly balls in the outfield. On the year, Hernandez is hitting .313/.379/.418 with 2HR 27RBI to go along with 27SB. Hernandez has been extremely solid in the field as well.
Tyson Gillies has hit in 7 of his 8 games since his promotion (7-28) and 16 of his last 19 games if you combine the success he was having in Reading. Still too early to tell how well the new swing and new maturity? will translate to Lehigh Valley, but there is a glimmer of hope. On the year, Gillies is hitting a combined .238/.299/.405 between Reading and Lehigh Valley. He has 9HR 26RBI and is 9/14 stealing bases.
Tyler Cloyd was outstanding last evening, going 7 shutout innings, allowing just four hits and didn’t walk a batter. Prior to last night it has been ugly…Cloyd was 0-5 with a 12.11 ERA in his last 5 starts for Lehigh Valley allowing a remarkable 48 hits in 24.2IP, along with 10 homers. During that time period, the opposition was hitting .409 against him. (48-119). On the year for the ‘Pigs, Cloyd is 2-8 with 6.89 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and .324 opp. avg in his 12 starts.
Mauricio Robles is unscored upon over his last 6 games going 5.2 innings and earning rwo saves during that time period. For Lehigh Valley on the year, Robles is 0-1 with a 1.56 ERA in his 16 games. The problem has been control, as Robles is 14 in his 17.1 innings of work. If he can figure out his control (which was much less of an issue in Reading), the Phils may have something here. The opposition is hitting just .148 against him.
Next edition: Asche, Martin, Rupp, Galvis, Castro
‘Pigs leaders:(thru 7/8/13) Hitting:Cody Asche is 3rd in AB’s (338), 8th in strikeouts (83); 6th in triples (4); and 7th in hits (96); Cody Overbeck is 10th in doubles (23) and 7th in strikeouts (84); Cesar Hernandez leads the league in triples (7), and is 3rd in SB (27);Darin Ruf is 8th in strikeouts (88); Josh Fields in 10th in avg (.314).
Pitching:Ethan Martin is 3rd in wins (9), 6th in starts (17), 5th in strikeouts (79) and has the 2nd most walks (57); Tyler Cloyd has the 5th most losses (8), is 2nd in HR allowed (15); Jake Diekman is 7th in saves (11)
News and Notes: Cesar Hernandez was named the IL Hitter of the week for the week ending July 7th. Over the last 11 games, Hernandez is hitting .455 (20-44).
–In his last 14 games, LHP Cesar Jiminez is 4-0 with a 1.48ERA, striking out 28 in 24.2 innings during that span.
–LHP Greg SMith has not allowed an ER in his last 4 starts (20.2IP)
–SS Michael Martinez has a 9 game hitting streak and is hitting .469 over that span.
Probables: Wed: Martin; Thur: Valdes; Fri: Cochran; Sat: Smith; Sun: Cloyd
Transactions: On Saturday, LF/1B Darin Ruf was called up to Philadelphia to replace the injured Ryan Howard. On Tuesday, RP Luis Garcia was called up to Philadelphia and RP Phillipe Aumont was optioned to Lehigh Valley
Note: With the International League All Star Game scheduled for next week, this report will go on a one week hiatus. Look for the Lehigh Valley report back on Wednesday July 27th.
Phuture Phillies 
Lately, meaning the last few days , or so, have seen an OF of Leandro Castro in LF, Michael Martinez in CF, and Josh Fields in RF. With Gillies coming in as a defensive replacement in RF.
Is there some type of minor , as yet undisclosed, injury, other types of issues forming or developed, or should the enthusiasm be soft ;pedaled?
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In my view, Hernandez looks very much like the type of unheralded prospect that has a long and productive career. If his speed tool translates to the majors, then he can be a very productive regular. He seems to have a very good hit tool as well. That stat line at AAA is no joke.
I like what Asche is doing as well. Reminds me of Chase Headley.
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It’s hard to know if Hernandez will hit enough to be a major league regular – we will just have to see. Right now, given that the team will probably try to re-sign Utley, they are trying to groom Hernandez as a super sub player and I’m fine with that too. If he does so well that he earns regular playing time, so much the better. The Asche/Headley comparison is interesting – I’ve thought of that more than a few times myself.
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I do think the center field experiment is an indication that they see him more as a bench guy than a regular.
IMO the hitting is not the question – no, I’m not saying he’ll be an average or above major league hitter, I think he likely won’t. But despite likely mediocre offensive production (and he should hit well enough not to be a complete zero as a hitter) he is looking more and more like a plus base runner, and IF he is a plus defender, he could end up with a career as a regular.
But no one will answer my questions about his defense. A lot of people around here seem to assume that he’ll be a plus defender, but if there is evidence to support that, no one has shared it.
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Does he comp out better then Michael Martinez?
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Of course!!!! Martinez was 28 when he first made the majors – and was only there at that time because the Phillies needed him to be on the big league roster to keep him. Hernandez (now 23) was, I believe, 22 when he was promoted. Hernandez is a far superior prospect to Martinez (Martinez is 30, so he’s not a prospect anymore, just a player working for another chance) – it’s not even close.
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Oh, heck yes. Much better. Saying that he is not going to be an average major league hitter is not some huge insult. His current major league equivalency for this season comes out to .275/.331/.360. That might be a little optimistic, though certainly in the realm of the possible, and as a hitter he’s in a different category from Martinez. (Interestingly enough, that’s pretty much Altuve’s line with a few more BB.
But I suspect you’re trolling me.
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I’m not sure if I’d label him a potential plus defender (that’s not a statement of doubt but one of ignorance), but from what I’ve seen it appears that he will at least be above average. Another thing that Hernandez has going for him is that his plate discipline has improved significantly. Couple that with good baserunning and, say, a 60-65 hit tool and you might really have something interesting at second base. Hernandez is still young and power is often the last thing to come, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he developed acceptable power for a second baseman over the next few years (8-12 homers, 30-40 doubles).
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On second thought, a 65 hit tool is an extreme projection for Hernandez (possible but highly unlikely) – it’s more like a 55/60 hit tool, which is still pretty good.
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Not a new topic, but the fact that hit tool, as used here and elsewhere, seems to encompass two different concepts – contact rate and the type of contact made – makes it a little difficult for me to assign scores to hit tools for some players. Hernandez has the reputation of having a good swing that produces good contact, which I think we can assume means line drives. I don’t know the extent to which that is true, but when people talk about his hit tool being good, I think that’s what they mean.
But his contact rate is only mediocre; he certainly does not have a plus hit tool in that sense.
Now, some people just use it as an analog for “his minor league batting average is over .300 so his major league BA will be as well.” You know what I think of that argument (not saying that you are making it).
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That’s a good point, I view it as some combination of contact rate, line drive rate and the degree to which the player displays in-park power (I realize the last factor overlaps with the power tool, but being a great pure hitter is more than hitting the ball and getting line drives, or at least that’s how I see it).
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Good points. First Inning has Cesar with a 23% LD rate this season and close to 20% last season (25% in limited time with the Phils). That type of LD rate will produce a decent average. He has a high ground ball rate which is also good for a player with his speed. His K-rate at LV is hovering near 20% which is too high for a player of his profile though. I suspect that if he maintains a 20-22% LD rate in the majors, keeps the majority of his other batted balls on the ground and gets his K-rate down under 15-16% and I think you might have a .290 ish hitter in there
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Also, the increased walk rate, improved base running skills and growing extra base power suggest to me that Hernandez is an intelligent player who works very hard on all facets of his game. Players like that tend to have a greater upside than their raw skill set might suggest (and his raw skill set is certaintly good) – it’s the same reason I like Asche so much.
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Okay, back to work
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Yeah, I think the key there is “gets his K-rate down under 15-16%.” It’s because I doubt that he can do that that I peg his BA lower. But if he can do that, sure, I agree.
An interesting side point here, which I may explore later, though I am getting ready to go on a short vacation so maybe not, is the fact that, as usual, the number of open major league jobs is vastly exceeded by the number of prospects who might, if given the opportunity, prove to be decent major league regulars. The guys that get opportunities tend to be players with a higher perceived upside than Hernandez.
Again, IF his defense is as good as some people seem to think, that changes the equation. The BB rate is also a variable here. IMO his increased plate discipline, if sustained, does help his profile. Unlike the much improved SB%, which I think is pretty clearly real at this point, I’d like to see more BB data before I’m convinced represents a real improvement.
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I’ve always liked Headley as an extreme upside comp for Asche, but Headley OPSed close to .900 for his career in the minors and was an XBH machine. His AA and AAA OPS was 1.016 and .939, respectively. I think Asche is going to be a nice player, but he is not putting up Headley-like numbers in the minors.
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Yes, but . . . Asche went through the minors more quickly than Headley (Headley’s age 23 season was in AA, Asche’s is in AAA and, I should note, if Asched had been born one day later, this would be considered his age 22 season – Asche has time on his side over Headley) and, secondly, Headley’s stats were put up in three ridiculously hitter-favorable leagues so you have to discount those a bit too. The comp is actually closer than it appears from a first glance of the numbers and, not surprisingly, once promoted, it took Headley several years to show plus power as his power numbers were depressed by his home park. A bigger advantage for Headley is a much better walk rate in the minors. All told, yes, I would definitely rate Headley as having been a better prospect than Asche when they were both minor leaguers, but it’s closer than you would think.
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The other thing that has not been mentioned is that Headley has always been a really good defender at 3B. Asche has worked really hard to be average at third base.
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Recent reports are that Asche has become quite a good defender at third. I guess we’ll see soon.
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Agree v1. If Cesar is a consistent SB threat, say 30 or more over 500 PAs, then he could be an adequate middle infielder. He still has a lot to prove but he’s having a nice season.
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Hernández will be a mlb regular. Maybe not for The phillies. Ramón Santiago type. Although Santiago is considered a utility guy. He finds a way to get 300-500 ab for The past 12 years.
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Perhaps closer to a Jose Altuve.
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My concerns with Asche are how will he hit Left Handed pitching and with Franco having the brighter star where does he fit. I see a 3/4 of Brown/Franco or Franco/Brown in the near future and for many years to come.
If you are convinced Utley is coming back the time might be now to maximize Hernandez’s value for an asset you need now.
Galvis is pretty much your super utility and he can play SS, Cesar cannot.
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I think there’s room for both players on the roster. Right now, the Phils have McDonald and Frandsen in the infield. There’s no reason why, in the next year or two, those two players could not be Galvis and Hernandez. I’d sure as heck HATE to see Hernandez traded for an okay middle reliever, which is the kind of return he would bring right now – his intrisic worth is a lot more than that.
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I’m with you I don’t give him up for mediocre relief help but an 8th inning guy (Axford or Crain) I would have to consider it. Again that is assuming I am sure I have something worked out with Chase.
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I am not concerned about Asche hitting LH in the short term because i think you would initially platoon him with frandsen who, of course, mashes LH pitching. Franco’s still at least 2 full years away IMO.
I am sceptical that Galvis or Hernandez ever hit enough to be good regulars but would be happy to be proven wrong.
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franco’s already tearing up AA. i think he’s at most a year and a half away. but that’s just my opinion. 🙂
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And you very well may be right. Mine was just an opinion as well…
His production will likely normalize a bit going forward. And I don’t mean to restart the swing mechanics argument, but “IF” there is even a little bit of truth to those accounts, that is something that should be addressed in the minors and may take a bit of time.
But more to my intitial point, if Asche, or an Asche/Frandsen platoon produces like I am hopeful he/it can, the club will have the luxary of giving franco another season in the minors.
But who knows, he may continue to mash and the swing/approach thing may turn out to be very overblown and he will play himself up to the bigs to start 2015.
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Results are more important than mechanics. Pretty sure half the people on this site would have sworn up and down that Ichiro would never hit in the majors if he’d come through our minor league system.
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lets just move Asche back to second and see how he does he can handle it. and if he sticks try Hernandez at Short Stop he used to play that too.
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not going to take this bait. won’t do it.
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Asche, hernandez, and then let’s talk about Susdorf !!! Not m Martinez or gillies. Give the kids credit who deserves credit. Susdorf is a major league hitter
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Boy, if we hadn’t extended Ryan Howard at 1B, we could have moved Utley over there, and then there’d be room for Hernandez too…
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