General Discussion – Week of 7-8-2013 – Messed Up Menisc Us Edition

Weekly Discussion

So yeah, Ryan Howard out 6-8 weeks. The idea of playing Darin Ruf at 1B right now makes sense, as the team hopes to cling to a slim playoff hope in a shaky division. But in three weeks, if the team is out of it and selling, shouldn’t they be playing Ruf in left, either in the bigs or AAA?

182 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 7-8-2013 – Messed Up Menisc Us Edition”

  1. at this pace franco starts ’14 in reading right? and tocci goes to CLW. and crawford to LWD. also will biddle get promoted or are they really taking their time

    Like

    1. Biddle is doing a year at every level, so he will start 14 in AAA. Franco if he keeps up this pace would start at AAA as well in 14. if he goes into a funk at the end of the season he may repeat AA at least for the beginning of the year, but if he is still killing the ball they will continue to progress him

      Like

  2. I just wanted to know what others think of his contract. He had a great year in 2009 and early during the 2010 season he was extend for another 5 years at 25 million a year even though he was still under contract that year and for 2011 as well. So lets say he didn’t get an extension and kept up that production with a small decline say 270 and 40 hrs the next 2 seasons as well, whats the most he would’ve gotten? 30 million a year?

    Shouldn’t we have waited at least after the 2010 season (in hindsight yes) because I feel like we weren’t going to be saving a lot of money anyway. It’s not like we had a potential start with 1 or 2 years of experience who was still young and will still be in their prime for most of the contract. Another thing is the age of howard who I belive would be 32 when the new contract starts.

    At the time I did not like the contract, but I did not hate it either, but did feel it was too early to sign him to an extension.

    Like

        1. Seriously. I have been trying to not be too negative about this whole situation, since ‘I told you so’ only takes you so far, but there was significant discussion at the time about how, in the best case scenario, this extension was a serious overpay. Obviously we are far from the best case here, so the extension is even worse in comparison.

          The fact that it was offered two years before he hit free agency (and suffered a horrible achilles injury at the very last at-bat of his last pre-extension season) is just icing on the crap cake.

          Like

          1. Amaro should be dismissed for this move alone. His comments afterwards were truly frightening. Said something to the effect that Howard is the type of player who makes his own market. We have a GM who doesn’t seem to understand supply and demand, much less more difficult concepts.

            Like

            1. I tend to agree with this. I compare this to my job. If a senior executive at my company made a huge blunder like this, and it was considered risky from day 1, there is a likelihood that that executive would be fired. The saving grace would be if that senior executive had other major ‘wins’ during the same timeframe. I am not sure of many major wins Amaro has had at the same time.

              The other thing that would interest me – was it Amaro that was pushing for Howard’s contract extension, or was it others in the organization (i.e. owners)? How much of this deal is truly on RAJ?

              Like

            3. +1
              Unfortunately the Pence (both ways) and and Lee outbound were awful. I don’t care if MGMT ordered the Lee trade. Talk to other teams besides SEA

              Like

            4. good call on both of the above (especially in hindsight).

              Amazing that Lee has been traded 4 times, with the following returns:

              Trade 1: Bartolo Colon (half season rental) and Tim Drew. Keep in mind that the Expos also included: Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Lee Stevens. Advantage – Indians

              Trade 2 (after Lee was established): Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald and Lou Marson.

              Trade 3: Tyson Gillies, Phillippe Aumont and J.C. Ramirez.

              Trade 4: Matthew Lawson, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Justin Smoak.

              Like

    2. Vince not a stat man. But two things would have made me wait , one was his age, second was his body type, I really, unless your a dh, think bigger guys like him, could lose it faster, just a opinion, seen it before in guys like lukzinski, fielders father, and others,seems like 34 or 35 they tend to really lose a lot. But there are excepts , like puckett.

      Like

    3. Either way there were far worse contracts handed out even after this one and history shows bad contracts before this one. It has always been a part of the game. Hell the Mets are still paying Bobby Bonnilia and they might still be paying Mo Vaughn.

      The Albert Pujols contract will be talked about as far worse than this deal and again Mozeliak can thank Arte Moreno because he was in on Albert at near $200 Mil. The Fielder contract in time will be talked about as well. And that is all before we get to AROD’s deal.

      The mistake is not such much in handing out the contract as much as it will be how they move forward with it. If they continue to force RH into the 4 hole or in the line-up all together just because of what he is making after this season then that would be the bigger problem.

      Lemmings!

      Like

      1. As for your second paragraph, I do certainly agree that the mistake can (and likely will) be compounded by how they move forward with it.

        But as for the rest, I don’t see how the contract can be defended on any basis. As for “worst,” that depends partly upon how we define worst. On net value, it might not be the worst ever (though I think the Fielder contract in particular might not be nearly as bad as you say). But on rate of return, I think it probably will be the worst 100 million plus contract ever. There really is a pretty good chance that Howard will provide no value at all over the course of the deal. There have been some other real busts, but can you really say that about any of the other big deals?

        Like

        1. Let’s just call it what it is. I personally like the Amaro’s. They have been pretty good to me. I take RAJ bashing personal and maybe have made it a point since there is so much of it to make the counter arguments on his behalf.

          I have no problem being critical of RAJ but some of you guys get ridiculously out of hand.

          I think the way you can defend it is the same way you can defend Jerry DiPoto. You don’t always have all the facts before you when killing a GM. Ownership plays into these decisions at times and that is not to say the Phillies ownership group went to Amaro and said you have to do this deal. I merely state it is possible and Amaro is not going to publicly throw his superiors under the bus after just getting the GM job.

          For Dipoto it was out there in the open, for Cashman it was out there in the open, for Dombrowski it was kind of out there. These are owners with ego’s the Phillies not so much but the motives are always the same keep butts in the seats.

          So the point is not to defend the contract the point is to say it doesn’t and shouldn’t make or break a GM because he misses on a contract. And as a side to open some eyes that there are plenty of other GM’s around the league getting it wrong.

          And Larry you are smart enough to know these decisions are not made in a vacuum of baseball advanced metrics and the players performance on the field. There are economics involved that the common fan is not privy to. There are demographic issues the common fan is not privy to and when the GM is out there making a comment to the media you may as well wipe your arse with it because he can never be completely honest.

          Like

          1. Here’s the thing DMAR. I am aware of all the factors you state, and in fact have considered them in being kinder to Amaro on some issues than some other have been (e.g., the Lee trade, the Papelbon signing). I just think that, giving him every possible benefit of the doubt, the Howard contract is just too much.

            Of course there’s other things as well driving my evaluation of the man, but on the whole I just am convinced that the bad much outweighs the good with Amaro. I’m sure he is a nice guy but you know what Durocher said (yeah, I know the actual quote is a little different than the accepted version, though I actually think the actual quote is more apt)..

            Like

      2. That is my whole contention. Why does he continue in the 4 hole? I can’t think of any rational. Something about cutting off your nose….

        Like

    4. If we waited, and Howard didn’t get injured, I am assuming his contract would still be similar to Prince Fielders or 21million. But there are really too many assumptions. Without the contract does he continue to decline vs LHP? Impossible to say. If he does, 21 million is a pipe dream he’s looking at 15-16 million probably. IMO

      Like

      1. I don’t like the implication that Howard likely wouldn’t have declined against lefties if he wasn’t given a big contract. I really think most of these guys are proud professionals and I don’t think they stop intentionally stop trying after getting a big contract. Howard already was being exploited by lefthanded pitching by the time the extension was offered that is one of the reasons it was such a bad idea at the time.

        Like

        1. No no no don’t get me wrong I am not calling him lazy or unprofessional. My implications is with all athletes and these big contracts that RARELY work out. I think it is human nature to think that you’ve made it. What you do and how you do it, is what got you there. Whether or not a guy is willing to make adjustments to continue his craft? Not sure those coaching tips don’t fall on deaf ears or if it doesn’t immediately work “I’ll just fall back to what got me here.” Same could be said for Jimmy. In part it is also a fans frustration because we’ve seen the MVP years and the success.

          Like

  5. Howard out 6 – 8 weeks could be addition by subtraction. If Ruf plays well or Michael Young does what he does, or .. or, the Phils could take off. Remember when the Phils traded Abreu and Lidle for a shag bag of used baseballs and a box of faux Cuban cigars. The Phils started playing baseball after that trade. 2006 they ended the season a couple of games out of a playoff spot. 2007 got a playoff spot. 2008 WS win. 2009 WS appearance and so on. That trade marked the turnaround for the franchise. The Phils didn’t get anyone who made a difference and yet… the team got better. Howard’s injury is a chance to see if taking the big guy out of the lineup can ignite this team.

    And by the way, I’m glad Brown didn’t get in the HR derby. I’ve always felt that it changed the way a guy swings. Abreu won it and the whole 2nd half of the year, he wasn’t himself. One night of swinging out of your shoes shouldn’t change you as a hitter but sometimes it does.

    Like

    1. “Remember when the Phils traded Abreu and Lidle for a shag bag of used baseballs . . . . . . . That trade marked the turnaround for the franchise.”

      Dead on. Open a door for Victorino if I recall correctly. The thing I remember most of the weeks following that trade was the change in the team’s energy. They were stagnant prior, energetic after. And I have to say, the current team is quite stagnant

      Perhaps Asche and Ruf by means of their make-up alone can bring such a transformation this year. I hate myself for clinging onto this season, but a 5-6 game winning streak places the big club right in the middle of things. But I’d still rather Amaro prove to be a small-time seller than a small or big -time buyer.

      Like

      1. I say sell Paps for the best hitter the Tigers will give you. And maybe Michael Young.

        Like

    2. Wrong. Imagine Abreu on that 2007-08 club. When people assume that trade did anything, it in fact did nothing. The only thing it did was make the Phillies worse off at the end of 2006. They are a second half team and probably would have made the playoffs that year if Abreu was still on that club. One of the worst moves of Gillick’s career.

      And Gillick got back NOTHING in exchange for Abreu. For an all star and borderline HOFer, he got NOTHING. That was poor in my opinion. It should also be a cautionary tale when everyone here assumes MLB players will net future starts. Look what Abreu (and Lidle) brought back:
      CJ Henry
      Jesus Sanchez
      Carlos Monasterios
      Matt Smith

      And people rake RAJ over the coals for the Cliff Lee to Seattle return. That was one of the worst trades in the history of the franchise, especially at a pivotal time in the team’s history.

      Like

      1. Your points about the end of 2006 are well taken, but the Abreu trade wasn’t about players, it was about shedding salary and re-making the clubhouse atmosphere. One of the first things that Gillick did was get rid of guys he thought were not contributing to a winning atmosphere on the team. Abreu was not a bad guy and, from a statistical standpoint, he certainly was a fine player, but, in their view, did not help foster a winning atmosphere. Whether it is coincidence or not, as soon as Abreu was traded, the Phillies turned over a new leaf and began to win. All of that said, if this team could acquire an Abreu-like player for right field in exchange for borderline prospects, it would be a great move.

        Like

        1. They won a few games and then Gillick traded for Moyer on a waiver deal. He helped more than anything on that club. They needed pitching, that’s why the next offseason Gillick signed Eaton to that horrible contract. Offense wasn’t the problem, as Howard was in the midst of his MVP year. Abreu would’ve helped make a run at the end.

          Like

        2. Abreu had become the leader on the club back in 2001 ….but Rollins and Utley needed to be the new leaders. Abreu was not built to lead.

          Like

          1. And Abreu couldn’t have been a productive RF for the next few seasons? Rollins and Utley could become leaders with Abreu on the club.

            Like

            1. I agree with you, he would have been productive, but he already had moved to Manhattan in 2005, and wasn’t a ‘team’ guy so to speak. It was a risky move on Gillick’s part. Would Werth and Vic ever come on?

              Like

      2. -1

        As good as Abreu was statistically it is well documented that he sucked the oxygen out of the locker room. There was no air left for the young guys to assert themselves. That was one of his better moves quite honestly.

        Funny how the D-Backs made a similar move really without blinking when they traded J. Upton. Many heap praise on the Bravo’s for their brilliant moves, let’s see how magnificent their collapse is this season.

        Give me the tough dirt bag type player over the prima donna

        Like

        1. Give me the player who is better every time.

          From your response you would agree that Gillick got a solid return for Abreu? Scraps?

          Like

          1. Just another reason from the past for MLB to aloow to start trading draft choices for players ilo of players for players.

            Like

          2. I won’t avoid your question he got scraps for sure but I think you are avoiding the point that there are talented losers floating around the league and some times you have to dump them for nothing to move your organization forward.

            Like

            1. I’m not avoiding it. There is no statistical evidence that shows dumping Abreu helped the Phillies. None. Zilch.

              Like

            2. LOL None? They never made it to the playoffs with him and two short years later they won the WS with an OF of Werth/Vic/Burrell and in that same span unless I’m mistaken two different Phillies won an MVP.

              Also there is no statistical evidence that shows a turd stinks but we all know it does!

              Like

            3. That seems to have had a lot more to do with the maturation of Howard, Utley, Hamels, and Madsen and the addition of Lidge than the absence of Abreu.

              Like

    3. The thing that gets my goat the most about the whole being a seller at the deadline is people act like selling and winning are mutually exclusive. The above example is a perfect example of how being a seller is not a death walk per say. If we were to trade Paps, M Young, and rollins, I don’t think that would have a negative impact at all. It would bring back a few decent prospects and I think jump start the team. I would in NO WAY trade Utley or Lee. You just won’t get the value to make it worth while, and a top of the rotation starter and a well above avg. second baseman a extreamly hard to come by commodities.

      Like

      1. I don’t think plugging in Galvis for Rollins and whoever for Papelbon would come close to making up their value to the team (contracts aside). Asche coming in for Young might very well be a net positive however.

        Like

  6. This is a site largely dedicated to current Phillies prospects, But – a random thought – see if anyone has an interest in sharing their thoughts / memories.

    Name a former Phillies prospect that you thought showed good big league ability, but for whatever reason (injury / attitude / lack of opportunity), just did not have a prolonged impact at the Major League Level.

    I will throw my initial thought out there – Ron Jones. He was the Paul Owens award winner back in 1986, and seemed to have the makings of a decent big league player (this was in the days before the interweb, and the Phillies were pretty bad in the late 80’s, so perhaps as a teenager I was just HOPING that he was going to be good). He came up to the Phillies, got off to a pretty nice start, and then blew out his knee. He made it back a year or 2 later – only to blow out his other knee.

    Anyone else care to share any thoughts on past prospects that for whatever reason did not make it (and don’t throw out Jeff Jackson – you need to have shown at least some MLB-level ability).

    Like

        1. The cool thing about Tyler Green is that a day or two after they drafted him, he was on national tv in the college world series and I think he struck out 12 that night. It was pretty neat.

          Like

    4. Ron Jones is a good one too; forgot all about him. I recall he had a decent short term stretch with the Phils. 8 homers in two weeks or something like that. Might have been to start the season one year but anyway I recall him hitting a decent amount of homers over a short stretch one year

      Like

    5. Very funny, before I finished reading your entry, the first player I thought of was Ron Jones – he was a pure hitter who probably would have been a consistent 3-4 WAR guy if he had not blown out the knees. Another guy I thought was going to be pretty good but who flamed out was David Doster – I was hoping he could be another Dickie Thon (early career Thon).

      Like

      1. The one pitcher who I thought was going to be really good (a solid 2 or 3) who fell on his face was Brandon Duckworth.

        Like

        1. For me it was Mike Anderson…him and the Bull back-to-back in the lineup would be a terror.

          Like

      2. Catch, agree with you that Ron Jones would have been a great/very good player until his knees gave out on him. The last play of his career was horrific as his knee gave out and the Met batter had an easy inside the park homer. Larry Anderson(Radio Guy) was friends with him and that play made him sick.

        Like

        1. I was at one of the games when his knee blew out, I think it was said Mets game. So unfortunate as the guy could just flat out rake.

          Like

    7. Marlon Byrd. I know he’s had a career in the majors, but I thought it was going to be much better.

      Like

    8. This one doesn’t really apply because they were MLB regulars but to me Vicente Padilla and Myers…. I thought these guys were gonna/coulda been ALL Stars. I thought Padilla had some of the best movement on his fastball that I’d seen and that curve was great.Thought Myers was gonna be an ACE a la Shilling. IMO his head got in his way. Never lived up to it.

      Like

      1. +1 for Padilla. When i saw the return for Schilling i thought Padilla would be the saving grace. I was certain my favorite baseball team could not possibly give away a guy as great as Schilling was and boy was i wrong…. Still never forget watching Schilling DOMINATE at Veterans stadium in the 93 series.

        Like

        1. I was at that game – unbelievable. If you made a short list of guys who you wanted to start a WS game 7, Schilling would have to be on the list.

          Like

  7. Trivia…today marks the 60th anniversary of Robin Roberts string of 28 straight complete games was snapped.

    Like

      1. He actually won 20 or more games a few seasons after ’53. ‘Middle age’ baseball produced monster arms.

        Like

  8. How about the Revere turn around. I am amazed . Lets just hope it is for real . A few more walks and the good CF he was supposed to be noted for and I will eat my hat.

    Like

    1. Well I mean it’s not much of a shock Revere is hitting the about what he did last year. He was never as bad as what his line was to start the season. If he can just play the excellent defense we were promised he’d be a steal for us

      Like

    2. This guy will lead the league in hitting someday.

      Minor league stats for 1755 PAs: .326 .383 .404 .787

      Major league stats for aprrox 1300 PAs: .283 .323 .329 .652

      Like

  9. The Phils really, really need to sell high on Papelbon, and soon. He looks like he’s losing a tick or two on his fastball, his K rate is down, and he’s become almost an exclusive fastball pitcher, and half the times he throws his breaking ball it looks like that flat Brad Lidge slider of his last year or two. The Phils have gotten very lucky on the first 1.5 years of that deal with Papelbon, but I highly doubt he will have anywhere near as much success in years 3 and 4 of that deal as he has had thus far. Selling high now before it all goes bad would be a wise move.

    Like

    1. Agreed.

      But – who then becomes the closer? Bastardo? Not sure I love that idea, but still would make a deal with Paps if a good return were offered.

      Like

        1. Thank you. “Closer” is one of the dumbest things in sports. You become a closer by saving games and a closer saves games. In other words it is a chicken and egg scenario entirely controlled by the manager and organization. I do think there are some guys who don’t have the mental makeup to close, however I think the pool of those that can close is very large and not limited to a handful of “established closers”

          Like

          1. I have had this argument with other fans so often. I have been called crazy and told it “just doesn’t work that way.” Well what other way does it work? At some point someone decided to hand the ball to a young Papelbon

            Like

          2. You are correct, but, unfortunately, I am fairly certain that our GM disagrees with you, so it’s a virtual moot point.

            Like

      2. If we’re trading Papelbon this season we don’t have to worry about closer because we wouldn’t have been winning anything anyway.

        Like

        1. I assume you mean, if we trade Papelbon the Phillies are also trading other major pieces. I don’t think the Phillies go in a tailspin of losing if they trade Papelbon, and the youngs. I think trading Utley or Lee would start some losing but wouldn’t make us the Marlins. I’d imagine the young replacements could hold their own to a degree.

          Like

      3. Time to empower Aumont. Amazing what humans can do when they are finally given the responsibilty.

        Like

    2. I partially disagree. I think the fact that he has lost velocity and has remained effective is actually a good sign. He seems to have late movement on his fastball, more so than he did in his early years. That combined with his location may help him age gracefully. Not saying you have to keep him. If someone offers a top prospect(s), you absolutely trade him.

      Like

  10. Setting aside the tired Abreu debate, and even rejecting the argument that the intangibles (“make up”) of Ruf and Asche might help the team improve, there is a pretty good addition by subtraction argument for both players (though IMO we’re going to wait at least a month more to see Asche). I’ve expressed some mild skepticism about Ruf, but one doesn’t have to be much of an optimist to see Ruf at least equaling Howard as a hitter and being much better in the field and on the bases. M. Young, despite his recent uptick in his hitting, is a negative on the field and on the bases paths as well, so it doesn’t take much imagination to see Asche being an upgrade there as well.

    I am a bit afraid that superficial success at the major league level will have negative consequences in terms of dead line deals. Probably the Papelbon situation is the most relevant there, in that I am increasingly convinced that he needs to be moved (though one wonders if Papelbon is pitching himself out of a trade in the negative sense). And if Amaro, even worse, trades prospects for some bullpen help …

    Like

    1. My take away from the M Young sign, the D. Young Sign, and the lack of a Manuel Extension, was that those players were acquired to be trade chips. their hedge the whole time was on being sellers.

      I’m sure they thought they might catch lightning in a bottle if all the guys that were hurt last year bounced back but either way they were stuck with Halladay, Howard and Utley and they set this season up to be flexible for 2014 and beyond.

      as you said before they are very mindful of the upcoming TV deal and they have money to fill in around young guys. I don’t worry at all that they would trade their top tier prospects.

      Like

      1. Even trading a mid-range prospect, which IMO is more likely, would be bad. But maybe the Papelbon situation is the bigger issue – I think he needs to move him for the best possible return. Though I think he’s playing himself out of a Castellanos type return, if that was ever a real possibility.

        Like

        1. That worries me as well but last night while shaky was pretty impressive. I mean he did have to come in and face the top of the line-up right.

          I think the thing that will keep Papelbon attractive more then how his stuff is playing is he has been in the World Series and won. He is battle tested in big games and big cities. I covet Castellanos right now and if push came to shove and I had to kick in money to get him I would do it.

          It’s exactly what you and I talked about in February. Creating leverage with $ not prospects.

          Like

          1. I totally agree with you about the last thing you said but the phillies have really never ate contracts in trade like your suggesting. And the FO always say that dont like to do that. But I still think they should

            Like

        2. I like Avi he is a bona fide everyday OF he needs to play everyday. His body type is a bit worrisome but I think he is a legit .280/850+ OPS guy.

          I also like Bryce Brentz

          Like

    1. I’d trade a box of doughnuts for him. Mainly because after he got into the clubhouse he’d eat my box of doughnuts anyway.

      Like

      1. Both are replacement level players at their respective positions.

        Its a classic “nothing for nothing” trade.

        Anyone that considers trading for Joba would behoove themselves to check out his numbers to see just how terrible he’s been the last few years. He’ll be lucky to get a major league contract this winter.

        Like

        1. Joba’s a guy teams look at as a change of scenery type of guy. I’d do it for Michael Young. I mean, realistically, who are we going to get for Ruiz and Michael Young.

          Frankly, trading Young and calling up Asche is an upgrade in and of itself.

          Like

        2. Exactly, trading a contract year for a contract year. Actually only leverages Joba after this season because you traded FOR him.Only way this works is if RAJ is making him the closer and flipping Paps for Castellanos? Even still that is a negative sell on the MY front, I’d think.

          Like

          1. I think the point would be to open up a spot for Asche in Philly while adding an arm to the pen. Joba Chamberlain as the closer would be a horror film.

            Like

  12. I don’t think the Tigers need a closer anymore. Benoit is having a better year than Papelbon.

    Like

        1. Garcia and Rondon for Paplebon would work for me. There’s your future closer, or at least a back end piece. Detroit has to consider trading some real value for Paps IMO – they need to give this team every opportunity to win a WS. As we all know, the window can close in a hurry…

          Like

    3. Benoit…..how many WS’/playoffs has he been closing in? Comes down to Leyland’s comfort zone with him.

      Like

  13. I was more thinking of ruiz/young combined with papelbon for castellanos, which is still possible. Btw, as much as I don’t like KLaw’s write ups at times, the dude is the most qualified guy by far among these bloggers. Guy went to Harvard, Business degree from Carnegie Mellon, worked as assistant to GM in Toronto for 4 1/2 years, and worked for BA. I value his opinion more than most.

    Like

    1. Garet, remember he is not perfect and dresses just like us and he has been known to be wrong before. Let’s just let Maikal Franco play and see how he does which is it what matters.

      Like

  14. I am going to leave this list of pitchers here:
    Omar Daal, Joe Roa, Bruce Ruffin, Paul Abbott, Kyle Abbott, Garrett Stephenson, Mike Maddux, Ben Rivera, Pat Combs, Wally Ritchie, Mike Williams, Don Carmen

    Like

    1. Don’t forget about Andy Ashby. His huge wad of chew and sweat made him legendary.

      Like

  15. In reality, what is the best case scenario for a M.Y. trade? To say either NYY or BOS, whom are both rumored to be interested. I don’t think MY gets you any prospect in the top 100. Phillies would be looking at High A guys and below.

    Like

  16. Other thing about Howard – he’ll be 34, and the injuries are really piling up. A torn achilles can be catastrophic. That might have led to his knee problems. At this point, his left leg seems completely busted…

    You have to wonder – and I know this is crazy talk – but does he just call it quits at some point? If he doesn’t recover, he can’t hobble for the next 3 years. And he’ll be platooned. Maybe he even retires?

    Like

    2. He retires due to injury he gets the money…the Phillies get the insurance…and the fans get a parade.

      Like

      1. I don’t think there is any insurance. Even if there is insurance, you can’t just have the player retire at full salary and collect it. The player has to not be physically able to play. Sort of sucking isn’t good enough and the team/player deciding retirement is the best option isn’t good enough.

        Like

  17. Anybody else a little intrigued by what the Phillies might be able to start this week? They’ve been winning a lot more consistently, took two of three from Atlanta and the first from the Nats last night. They’ve got Hamels and Lee on the mound the next two nights. The offense, led by Utley and Brown, has shown plenty of life lately. Every team in the NL East has warts, and if they were able to go on a run and sneak into the playoffs …

    I’m aware I may be delusional, and I know there are posters on here who want nothing more than to see this team sell every asset and start over, but … I for one am anxious to see if they can string together some wins and get back in this thing.

    Like

    1. I’m with you but I don’t view it as selling assets as much as I do acquiring the assets you need to build the next championship core.

      Like

      1. Yeah, but isn’t Lee the only player that really gets you championship assets via trade? If Papelbon gets you Castellanos, then by all means do it, but otherwise, a sell-off really only returns spare parts otherwise. (Utley could bring a decent prospect, but I wonder if the value would match another half season of him playing in Philly plus a comp pick).

        Like

        1. I’m not convinced Papelbon gets us Nick. I’d like it for us. I’m willing to bet the Tigers get themselves a closer before the deadline we’ll have to wait and see who and for what.

          Lee yes he gets you the biggest package. I’d watch the Cardinals and the Red Sox but that’s complicated because he holds a very interesting no trade clause. The Cards are not on the list but most of the other expected deadline buyers are including the Red Sox and Texas.

          Look at the Cardinals and tell me who you want to make the deal. I say it has to be Taveras and one of Martinez or Wacha.

          Like

          1. I don’t think Papelbon brings that return either. And I don’t think the Cards, Sox, Rangers or whoever else give up the prospects necessary (Taveras, Boegarts, Profar just to begin the conversation) to part with Lee. So I’m a proponent of holding on, trying to make a run and allowing youth to come in via attrition instead of trade (make Q.O.s to Utley/Ruiz, take the draft picks if they leave, Asche takes over for Young, etc.). If Amaro can pull off deals like the ones above, then sure, because those players will be significant additions to a new core. The problem I’m seeing is those who simply want to see a selloff, even if its for a bunch of “meh” prospects.

            Like

            1. Why not throw in whatever is necessary, along with Papelbon, to get Castellanos. Same goes with Lee and whichever premier prospects you want in return. If we have to throw in Quinn to get Castellanos, so be it.

              Like

            3. So trade our veterans AND our prospects in order to get more prospects who may or may not succeed in the major leagues? I don’t see how that would be a good idea.

              Like

            4. I would throw in Quinn and pap’s for Castellanos……a power right handed bat who is 21…..and cheap

              Like

            5. Castellanos has 28 HR in 1,584 professional plate appearances. His highest ISO in four professional seasons is .174. And that’s all minor league numbers. That’s the power right handed bat that you’d trade your closer AND one of the fastest players in the minors for?

              Like

            6. Agree Mike that I don’t want to trade just for trades sake. If we trade we must get a high level prospect who is ready or almost ready to join the Phillies and contribute.

              Like

          2. DMAR…..Jim Leyland tiurns 69 later this year, Dave Dombrowski’s has two-years left on his contract, and in two/three years there is hope Nick Castellanos and Avisail Garcia will be great and lead them to a WS, whilst Prince gets fatter, Miguel gets older, Verry adds 400 more innings onto his arm. Now do you really think they are going to let a WS proven-closer pass them up for hopes and dreams of the future, and since they have come so close in the past!

            Like

            1. Hey I hope you are right but Dombrowski is one of the sharpest minds in baseball. Illitch isn’t letting Dave walk unless for some reason he wants to. So while Leyland may not be around Dave surely will and have his eye on the future.

              Let’s also keep in mind back-end BP didn’t cost them that WS against the Giants. They were shut out in games 2 and 3, only scored 3 runs in each of game one and four.

              Like

            2. Every year is a new year…..but the results still remained the same for them. This year so far , closing games has been a weakness.

              Like

    2. I think they could possibly make a run but I’m not betting on it or anything. The opportunity is before them with this stretch.

      Like

    3. I am certainly, let’s called it, a little enthused at the moment. I’d like to see the young BP guys stabalize a little and for one more bat to get hot (Ruiz, Rollins rt Ruf, maybe?). They are certainly playing better ball at the moment but need a little energy/shot in the arm. I loved seeing Revere’s energy last night

      Like

    4. I’m finding it difficult to get too excited about the team sneaking into the playoffs this season. But yes it’s possible, albeit still unlikely. Assume they won’t catch the Braves. The wild card standing look like this ATM:

      Pirates 53-36
      Reds 50-40
      Nationals 46-44
      Phillies 45-46

      I don’t think they have the talent of the Reds or Nationals, and the Pirates, even if they will likely fall back some, are in good shape. But passing 2 of those teams is certainly in the realm of the possible. I like the looks of this team a bit more than I did a few weeks ago – Ruf is probably an upgrade, Hamels pitching better, Utley healthy, Brown hasn’t come back to earth … they could make a run. Maybe one chance in 4? The ESPN playoff odds feature says 8%. So say somewhere between 8 and 25%?

      But if a good deal for Papelbon is on the table, I would not turn it down just to chase that possibility. Nor would I trade even a mid range prospect for relief help.

      Like

  18. What if we traded lee and papelbon and the youngs keep utley and give him a QO and then we would suck and get a top ten draft pick that is protected so then we could make a splash in free agency

    Like

  19. Aumont down Luis Garcia up. I’m really excited to see what he has, having spent the last couple years cutting hair and working as a mover. Great Story.

    Like

  21. if wetzler doesn’t sign, does that leave more money for a lst-ditch effort to sign another high school guy?

    Like

    1. No, the money simply vanishes from the draft pool and there is not makeup pick next year. It is a dead loss.

      Like

      1. The scout or scouts who advised us to draft Monda and Wetzler should be spoken to about costing us one if not two top ten picks.

        Like

  22. Is it not true? Chase Utley is my favorite Phillie of all time, but he did take significant time off in recent years in order to prolong his long-term career. I don’t know if Ryan Howard has jeopardized his own career, but he has played through a lot of pain (he played on one leg last year).

    Imagine if the roles were reversed: What if it were Ryan Howard who showed up to spring training the past two seasons and told the front office he couldn’t play? What if it were Chase Utley who played on one leg last season after rupturing his Achilles? Everybody knows what would happen: Utley is the gamer who worked his way back into the lineup against all odds, while Howard is the lazy player who is probably just trying to skip spring training. It’s a double standard that will never go away.

    Like

    2. Chase did try to play through the Knee injury though in 2010… remember Davey Lopes coming out and saying “Chase has been having trouble with his knees…?”

      Like

    3. It’s not true. Three reasons: (1) Both guys have taken time off with injuries, both guys have played hurt. What evidence is there, at all, that Howard has done the latter to a greater extent that Utley? (2) Even assuming for the sake of argument that there is some truth to that, the whole notion that there is some trade off between “playing hurt to help the team” and “resting to prolong your career” is a load of crap. Can anyone doubt (in retrospect) that the team would have been better off if Howard hadn’t played hurt? That’s not a knock on him, but by the same token a decision to wait until you actually have two functioning legs is not some kind of selfish “career first” move. (3) None of us know precisely Utley’s medical condition, but from what we do know, the extent to which he has been able to continue to contribute to the team despite it a testament to his work ethic.

      The fact that there is a double standard – and that Howard and some other players of color (Rollins anyone?) have been subject to some unfair shots – doesn’t justify erring in the other direction.

      Like

      1. I’m not criticizing Utley for taking time to get his knee right. I think he works harder than anybody else in baseball at overcoming injuries, and the steps he’s taken in recent years will help him help the team in the long run. I recognize that both players have played through pain and missed time due to injury. My post was a response to a comment that suggested it was laughable and anger-inspiring to compare Howard’s playing through pain to Chase Utley’s. I disagree with that sentiment, and have always found it unfair that Utley can do no wrong while Howard is a constant target.

        Like

        1. The original point was about Ike Reese comparing both situations. Which I think is a reach. To be hones JRoll has been way more of a target than Howard. I’ve heard a lot of criticisms of Howard, but most of it has been on his skill set, not his work ethic or effort. I mean he did blow out his Achilles trying to run out a ground ball.

          I just don’t think its accurate to compare Howard’s situation to Utley. Two different conditions. Utley has a chronic degenerative knee. Howard was playing with pain, but at the worst he would’ve had to have surgery which he will end up having anyways. I haven’t heard of many meniscus tears ending baseball careers. Kratz had a similar injury and his already rehabbing a month after his surgery. Howard’s career wasn’t in danger. When Utley was originally diagnosed with his knee condition, I don’t think he or the medical staff knew what his future would be. He was forced to stop because of the pain and because he knew he would have to change something if he was to lengthen his career. Even if the roles were reversed, any rational fan would understand that a chronic degenerative condition doesn’t amount to a player wanting to skip spring training. I’m sure some fans would jump at the opportunity to criticize him, but they would be in the minority.

          Like

  23. How about us not signing 4 of top 15, thats a lot of picks to not sign.and the fifth wont play,until after football. so he might not play baseball. if he likes football better.

    Like

  24. Going back to the trading Papelbon thing above, and ignoring the fact that RAJ is an idiot, I really don’t care who the closer is this year. I would start by giving Bastardo the opportunity and see how he does. If he struggles, I’d give it to whoever the hottest arm is at the time – DeFratus, Aumont, etc. I don’t know that I would automatically assume one of those guys proves to be the closer long term, but I would rather hope for that, and possibly add an arm from outside the org (preferably not named Chad) in the off season to close on a much shorter, cheaper deal than the one given Papelbon.

    As for the rest of the team, whether they go full rebuild or minor tweaks or whatever, I would NOT trade Chase Utley. I would sign him to a 2 year deal now if possible, if not I would keep him and make him a qualifying offer and hope he accepted it and if he didn’t, you take the draft pick and move on, but I think he needs to stay. The insurance against his injury history is Galvis and/or Hernandez. As for D Young and M Young, I’d take what they can get and move on, and make sure that the rest of this season is spent playing Asche and Frandsen at 3rd, or maybe Galvis, and playing Brown, Revere, and Ruf in the OF when Howard gets back, and Mayberry or even Gillies before then if warranted. As for Cliff Lee, I would trade him if the price is right and you can add 2-3 pieces that will be starting pitchers or regular everyday players in the next 1-2 years.

    Like

    1. Yes, this. We need to be sellers, but you also need to be competitive for the sake of the Comcast contract and stadium sales. Trading Paps and the Youngs won’t cost us more than 1 WAR over half a season and if you can get a piece for the future? Go for it.

      I’d like to keep Lee, but hey, if we get blown away by an offer…

      Like

    2. Speaking of John Mayberry he is playing RF even worse than Delmon Young as a defensive replacement. His two misplays let Washington get back into the game.

      Like

      1. Mayberry looked to be totally disinterested last night. I give him the Desmond ball…that was way up the wall even tho he ran to the wrong spot. The Ramos ball was a no doubter he should have had that one.

        If he is not happy in his role someone should get in his ear and let him know he is not helping himself playing like that.

        Like

        1. Even better: He was a defensive replacement.

          Is it me, or did every player inserted as a defensive replacement last night make questionable plays? Young couldn’t get to a grounder at first, McDonald was passive on that dribbler up the third base line and Mayberry was chasing fly balls like he was playing in the old Candlestick Park. Couldn’t have made Cholly happy.

          Like

          1. That’s another goofy Cholly move to put Michael to 1B. Hands down Ruf is a better defender at 1B than Michael Young is.

            Like

            1. I think he was trying to leave Young’s bat in the lineup while upgrading the defense at third. But yes … goofy, and unnecessary.

              Like

    1. Ruben better take a good long look at the White Sox 2012 vs 2013 teams before deciding whether to buy or sell. Rios, Ramirez and even maybe Peavy would have received more in return last year , but this year I am not sure. For them it was Fool’s Gold last year. Could this be the same for the Phillies in 2013? IMO, I still sell on Paps and Michael Young at a minimum.

      Like

      1. I’m not trading Papelbon if this team is serious about making a run. Bastardo closing last night’s game was a bit too white knuckle for me. I’d be fine with dealing Young, although I can’t imagine there will be much available for him.

        Like

        1. Mike, you can thank John Mayberry for part of the drama but Bastardo still walks too many people to be an good closer.

          Like

      2. The 2012 White Sox were leading their division until September so what message would they sending to their fans? In the off season they could have made some moves though Peavy is still has strong trade value and Rios some value to contenders.

        Like

    2. at least it says the team is open to moving michael young. i think a frandsen/asche platoon at third would be just as effective overall, if not more moreso. young is a major defensive liability. i’m fine with keeping utley.

      Like

  30. Omg. I was just reading mlb trade rumors. I hope franco gets hurts cause amaro is looking to buy, and you know how bad his trades are. no prospect is safe. I bet he moves herdanez for a relief pitcher, cause he wants to resign utley.

    Like

    1. Are you joking? He’s had one bad trade (although granted it was horrible).

      His signings are what’s been the problem and his evaluation (using RBI’s and those types of numbers).

      Like

  31. i seriously doubt amaro trades franco. it’s not as if they have an incumbent at third base. in the pence deal, singleton was expendable because he played first, and the phils are stuck with howard there.

    Like

  32. Only kidding, but i am scared of his moves. And it wasn’t Singleton in that trade that bother me, it was ptbnl Santana that should have never happen. He imo is a bad poker player,

    Like

    1. actually. i’m sort of worried, too, that amaro will misread the team and think they’re a contender.

      Like

  33. There has been frequent mention of Chooch being traded to NY or elsewhere. Can anybody explain to me the logic of that move ??? This team has one, yes – 1 catcher. No more. Kratz is a capable backup and nice story with a good bat. Joseph, and the others are YEARS away from hitting or fielding their way into the lineup. This team will not find a catcher who can field, or handle a pitching staff, never mind hit even the league mean for a catcher, as good as Ruiz.. If I was RAJ I would sign #51 for 2 years, if you could even do that ? There simply is no replacement and to think otherwise is foolish. Haven’t we all enjoyed the top pitchers arguing with Kratz as well ???

    Like

    2. +1 on trying to resign him to a 2-year deal, or at least offering a qualifying offer. His hitting has always been the cherry on top of his superb game management — a skill I’d prefer not to lose. In fact, if there is an enterprising sabermetrician in the house, I’d love to see the pre- and post-Ruiz suspension pitching splits for the Phils starting staff. I’d bet on it being significantly better in Ruiz’s hands.

      Like

      1. These would not be good deals. A qualifying offer is about $13 million. Ruiz isn’t worth that. Given the falloff in Ruiz’s performance this season, after going off the Adderall, along with his age, two years would not be a good gamble, unless the price is very reasonable.

        Like

        1. Agree a’town. We could get Ruiz on a two year deal for the cost of a QO (likely $14mil). Ruiz is a tough call heading into the deadline –

          Like

    3. Depends on whether or not you think Carlos is going to out perform Kratz/Quintero. At this point, I’m actually leaning towards him being unable to.

      I think his ability to call a game and mentor a bullpen full of young, experienced relievers may be enough for me to hold on to him if this team is a contender. I’d like to see how they do on this next roadtrip, however. Although the teams they’re playing aren’t very good (besides Detroit).

      Like

  35. LASIK …the answer to hitting the breaking ball?
    Bubba Starling opened 2013 with huge expectations surrounding him, but he hit just .195/.263/.379 with a massive strikeout rate in April. As Danny Wild of MiLB.com explained, things got so bad that Starling was sent to have his eyes examined for possible LASIK surgery in May — similar to what the Rangers did with third base prospect Mike Olt. Dick Kaegel of MLB.com later updated the story to report that the outfield prospect underwent the procedure on May 16.
    ….perhaps Anthony Hewitt and Zach Collier should look into it.

    Like

  36. I haven’t seen much discussion of Aumont’s demotion and the comments from Dubee about his unwillingness to take instruction. According to Dubee, Aumont’s been consistently coached to lengthen his delivery in order to better use his height, but has stubbornly refused to do so, preferring the comfort of what has worked for him (until recent years) his entire career. I know Aumont has complained in the past about receiving mixed messages from coaches at the AAA and major league levels. Is this a sign of these crossed signals? Or are we just seeing a player who doesn’t like to be told what to do?

    Like

  37. Huge follower never really post, but thought I would after having a twitter conversation with Ben Badler. He believes that Severino Gonzalez’s fb can get up to 94 now, which, if true, would be awesome with his absurd k-bb ratio

    Like

  39. Last year before the drug thing ,I presented the value of trading Ruiz. Of course I was roundly
    called crazy.. What now?
    Severino is dreaming again 6 innings 3 hits 11 ks.

    Like

  40. Thinking out of the box for a moment; I wonder if Seattle would take Gillies back in return for Morse

    Like

    1. Trumbo could be available from the LAA for the right price. Not sure how healthy he is right now. But me thinks Ruben is leaning to trade Mike Young for a reliever of some sort.

      Like

Comments are closed.