Around the quarter point mark of the season I did a mailbag soliciting questions from here, email, and Twitter. I thought it brought out some interesting question and discussions, so I am going to repeat it here. Feel free to leave questions here or on Twitter (my email is in the writer’s tab at top) for me or any of the writers here.
We will run your questions and our answers later in the week.
Phuture Phillies 
Question: If you’re the Phillies GM (position should be opening soon), whom do you trade off the major league roster at the deadline, and which prospect replaces them? Is that prospect the long-term answer at the position?
LikeLike
I say the youngs, ruf replaces delmon and asche replaces mike depending on who we get in the trades
LikeLike
I’d clean house. Both Youngs, Utley, Ruiz, Papelbon and, yes, even Lee. Who gets called up depends on who you get back.
LikeLike
So you would follow the Marlin’s model? IYou think the fans would come out for a 100 loss team?
We’ve had this discussion before, but no one really can articulate a good reason why this would work. How would turning into one of the worst teams int he league help the franchise long term? The only even arguable answer was that the team would get a couple of top 5 draft choices, but IMO that would be outweighed by the long term financial damage that a pretty explicit effort to maximize losses would do to the franchise.
LikeLike
I’d only trade Papelbon and the two Youngs and not because either Young brings much value in return. I still believe Papelbon could land you a right handed OF of the future. Ruiz and Utley get QO’s or take team friendly deals.
I guess you are listening on Lee but he has to bring you a haul preferably a high upside right handed starter as well as a position player ready to start now.
LikeLike
Baseball doesn’t really reward tanking.
LikeLike
with hard slotting for the rule 4 and international signings it does now more than ever.
LikeLike
Even then, your reward is at least 3 or 4 years down the road (at the MLB level) and you have no guarantee that will work out. In the NBA tanking might get you a guy who could win you a championship within a few years (if luck is really on your side like the Mid-90’s Spurs, within a few months). In the NFL tanking might get you a franchise QB who can get you to the playoffs in year 1 or 2.
I agree it rewards it more now, but it’s not really built to reward tanking as much as other pro-leagues.
LikeLike
trade papelbon if castellanos (or boegarts) is coming back, w/o elite talent coming back pap worth more closing. d. young can stay but he gets put into a matt stairs-ph role, go up there and try to hit a homerun. m. young can get traded, castellanos can play 3rd, if no castellanos, lets see what asche’s got (or if phils are really out of it let’s get crazy and see if franco’s hot bat stays hot in big leagues.)
LikeLike
woops forgot to add
if you got castellanos and he’s at 3rd, you could try and trade asche for cishek, gregg, or veras as new lower cost closer too
LikeLike
Put Castellanos in LF and Domo to RF. Revere/Mayberry in CF.
LikeLike
I have read this site since 2008, but live on the west coast, so I rarely post. So, Domonic Brown, after some false starts, looks like the real deal and worthy of #1 prospect ranking he had for several years. Simply looking at CLW and below, is their anyone with DB’s potential?
BTW great site and thanks for all your efforts!
LikeLike
You probably weren’t asking me but I’d say no one can produce like that, maybe Altherr would come closest however.
LikeLike
I’d say there are probably several, though each with a small chance of reaching that level. Off the top of my head:
Cozens
Quinn
Tocci
Crawford
Sandberg
Z. Green
Obviously some of those guys have very different profiles, but each of them, if everything breaks right, could one day be a top prospect. I’d say the team will be happy if one of them makes it to that level, with a couple others top 50.
That’s among position players. I am less confident in evaluating pitchers,
LikeLike
Carlos Tocci turns 18 in August. In America, I assume he would be entering his senior year? Go back in time, if he played in the same outfield with Mike Trout at Millville HS in 2009, would he be a classified similar to Mike Trout?
LikeLike
Trout demonstrated significant power as a senior in high school (he hit 18 HR) in addition to plus speed and contact skills. Tocci might eventually develop power, but even if you put an aluminum bat in his hands against high school pitching, I doubt he’d match that.
LikeLike
It’s doubtful Trout faced a single pitcher as good as the worst pitcher Tocci has faced in the Sally League this season. You’re comparing South Jersey prep pitchers to guys–many of whom are several years older than Tocci–who have been pitching professionally for at least a year, sometimes longer. I think he’d hit some out, though we’ll never know.
LikeLike
I agree he’d hit some out, but not 18 in 81 ABs. Trout went yard in nearly 1 in 4 ABs. I love Tocci as a prospect, but if you’re asking for a comparison to Trout — even HS Trout — the power’s just not there.
LikeLike
Oh wow, didn’t realize it was in 81 at bats. That’s disgusting. Anyway, no argument that Tocci isn’t at Trout’s level power-wise from me. Just thought it was important to note the stark contrast in competition.
LikeLike
Agree…fun speculation. Good point, he would certainly be facing pitching less talented to what he has faced to date.
LikeLike
It’s funny, while I have a pretty good feeling for the hitters, I feel much more comfortable evaluating pitchers. I’m not sure there is any pitcher in the system right now that has a colorable chance of being a top 5 prospect. Biddle might actually get to the point where he is worthy of that ranking, but he doesn’t have a big enough fastball to convince most organizations that list prospects to place him that high – but he could probably get to around the top 20 or 25. I suppose Gueller and Watson each has an outside chance of achieving that distinction, especially if Gueller has as big of an arm as we’ve heard – but, gosh, both of these guys are long shots, as is Mecias. Aside from that, you are looking at a bunch of good but lower ceiling arms (Adam Morgan is a good example) – not necessarily bad arms, but I’m not seeing another Matt Moore or Shelby Miller in the bunch right now. Actually, whereas the team seems to have hitters lined up now throughout the system, the pitching is in a bit of a lull.
LikeLike
Catch, (regarding pitching) far cry from how we felt last year at this time
LikeLike
The good news is that the perception about the pitching being in a lull is IMO only relative to the improved hitting. I don’t think the pitching in the system, on the whole, looks worse than it did a year ago (Pettibone graduated and there’s the injury concern regarding Morgan, but Biddle and a couple of other guys have improved their stock). But we’ve had one true break out among the hitters, a few others who raised their stock, the new draftees, and only a couple of guys who really lowered their stock.
LikeLike
If DB’s potential is an All-Star, power-hitting corner outfielder, I’d say there are several players below CLW who have that upside: Dylan Cozens and Cord Sandberg off the top of my head. The problem is that the likelihood of them reaching the potential, as Dom has, is remote. The Phillies love to draft raw athletes as lottery tickets, and for every one that pays off, there are countless who fail to tap into their potential.
Now, what player is most likely to reach Dom’s potential? I’d put my money on Cozens, based on the BB rates and power he’s shown since his debut last season.
LikeLike
I think we are about to see several waves of really good hitters flow up through the system and into the majors. From a selfish standpoint, I have to say I love this – to me, there’s nothing worse than watching a team that cannot hit. A team that has inconsistent pitching can be frustrating and maddening. A team that cannot hit becomes unwatchable. I grew up with the unwatchable, non-hitting Mets teams of the late 70s and early 80s (I’m from Connecticut, so I have an excuse of growing up a Mets fan) – I’ll pass on that, thank you. Watching them was a lot worse than watching the crappy, but okay hitting, Phillies teams from the late 1990s and early 2000s. Trust me on this one if you haven’t learned from 2012 and parts of 2013 – you don’t want to watch a team that cannot hit.
LikeLike
And it appears a lot easier to add good pitching through free agency or trade than it is to get good hitters
LikeLike
I think that’s true, especially mid rotations starters (I think the Phillies ability to add aces via trade and free agency is a little unusual).
One area where I feel that I am not very well able to articulate specific advice for the franchise is signing mid rotation FA pitchers. but in fact every year there are decent mid rotation free agent starting pitchers available for a decent salary and no loss of draft pick.Some team seem to do a really good job of identifying these pitchers.
I won’t say that the Phillies don’t, because the don’t even try. Partly for the good reason that, in recent seasons, they have had a rotation stocked with a an unusual number of aces. And partly because, those guys aside, they seem to fill out the rotation either internally (Kendrick, which has worked out well, and Pettibone/Worley/Happ, all of whom worked out well at least in the short run) or with non-ace trade acquisitions (e.g., Blanton). But I don’t have a ton of faith in Amaro’s ability to sign good mid rotation starting pitchers.
LikeLike
Just out of curiousity, if you note they can develop them and trade for them, why would they not be good at signing them? It would seem to me that if the club is able to recognize who they should trade for and who they should promote to fill Rotation holes, why would Free Agents be the one area they would suddenly suck at?
LikeLike
The Phillies really haven’t had a lot of need for a mid-rotation starting pitcher, since they acquired Lee and Halladay and developed Hamels. When they needed one, they got Oswalt and he pitched well for them. Before that they got Moyer who pitched fairly well for them. Even Blanton was good the year they needed him to be. We got Lannan, not because we couldn’t identify better, but because we were strapped $$$ and couldn’t afford better. I mean, we didn’t get Adams because we couldn’t choose a good vet reliever. We got Lidge and Paps and they pitched very well for us. The problem with Lidge, as with Howard, was the sentimental, PR-driven contract extension. Even Mesa was a decent closer in terms of saves/blown saves. We bombed on Eaton and we bombed on Garcia. In both cases, the problem was Gillick thinking the guy was healthy, when he wasn’t.
LikeLike
Well I do have more faith in Amaro’s talent evaluation of pitchers than of position players, so in that sense you are correct. And it’s an open question in the sense that they haven’t signed many such players (Lannan of course being one example, and one that so far hasn’t worked out well so far).
So why do I have my doubts about Amaro? I guess it’s just that overall, aside from a couple of obvious cases (Halladay and Lee were/are aces; who knew?), Amaro’s GENERAL ability to evaluate talent outside the organization (much harder than evaluating your own talent) has been rather spotty.
LikeLike
Fair. Lannan was really more of a dumpster dive to fill the 5th spot, so I think your point of not having gone after a mid-rotation FA holds true.
LikeLike
Where would you rank Franco and Biddle on the top MLB prospect list at this point in the season? Thanks.
LikeLike
I mean nationally
LikeLike
Franco in the 40s and Biddle in the 60s.
LikeLike
If he keeps it up, I would have to think that Franco is going to get more “love” nationally. Okay, let’s assume his speed is somewhere between below average and poor, even with that assumption, he is said to be a very good fielder and his power is somewhere between very good and elite. However, it is beginning to look like his hit tool, which was originally pegged at above average, may be closer to elite and is probably at least a plus tool. That is a huge development and one that, you would think, will have him in the 20s to 30s range. He is going to have to start drawing some walks for the advanced statistical crowd to give him some attention, but I would think that will normalize as soon as they start pitching around him.
LikeLike
The low BB totals in Reading in particular is a bit odd but not at this point concerning. I don’t think he’ll ever really be a high BB guy, but on the other hand if his K rate improvement is real, that’s a really big positive for a power hitter.
LikeLike
Well fisrt of all he is starting to get some real appreciation from that crowd. That aside, if we’re talking about the professionals (and smart amateurs) among the advanced stat crowd, I don’t think the BBs are the main issue. They do, as IMO they should, at the margins mean he is going to be viewed just a little less favorably than by those inclined to more or less ignore BB, but the whole profile, if it’s “real,” is just very very good even with mediocre BB totals.
I think the reasons that there is still some hesitation about Franco are:
(1) The fact that he wasn’t till this year regarded as a top prospects. There always tends to be some doubt about break out players until they have proven otherwise. Some of that will evaporate if he finishes strong this year; some of it won’t go away until he repeats his performance next year.
(2) The speed issue which you allude to, and some concern that, while good defensively now, the combination of lack of speed and body type is going to necessitate a more to first base eventually. if he is a first baseman, he is not an exciting prospect.
(3) Some scouts have some concerns about the swing, whatever the nature of the problem..
Not, I’n NOT saying the above concerns are or should be a huge deal. He’ll be regarded as a top 50 prospect and deservedly slow. But if the “advanced stat crowds” has doubts,,it is the above more than the BB totals.
LikeLike
Fair enough Larry – thanks for the helpful clarification.
LikeLike
. franco.
Biddle
asche
Morgan
Dugan
LikeLike
SSS(GCL)-JP Crawford-PAs:25, 435/480/435/915-no XBH!
LikeLike
Can’t say no XBH’s anymore. JPCraw with a 1st-inning 2B. Grullon with one too.
LikeLike
Living down the street from First Energy Park, I really can’t wait to see next year’s team, especially if some of these kids repeat (LGJ, Tocci, Watson, Quinn) to go along with Green, Knapp, Gueller, Cozens, Pullin
LikeLike
Larry Greene is doing better the past week or so. Current thoughts on his future and where he currently ranks in our top 30.
LikeLike
I’ve got LGJ in the mid 20’s to be honest. The start of his year just completely threw me for a loop. If he finished the year as he’s played his last two or three weeks, he may be back to 10-15 in the offseason rankings. We’ll see though…
LikeLike
Late 20’s
LikeLike
I know you slot new draftees in your top 30 at the end of the season, based largely upon the scouting reports at the time of draft, and much lesser extent how they performed in short season. A major national writer said that 5-6 of our draftees could be in his end of season top 10 for Phillies. That seems excessive. Which draftees do you slot in the top 15 at this point, and if you want to be that daring, at what slots do you put them?
LikeLike
I can’t see how 5-6 of our draftees could possibly fit in the top 10, but I could see reasonable arguments for top15. After, Biddle, Franco, Quinn, Tocci, Morgan, Watson, Joseph, Hernandez and Asche, the 10thru 20 spots can go to anyone. Personally, I have only Crawford (#3) in my top 15, so far.
LikeLike
Well, 5-6 could be in the top 10 doesn’t mean the top 10 would have 6 draft picks, but that 5-6 of them would be good enough to consider for the top 10. I think that’s pushing it, I see 4, at most, in the top 10 conversation with only 1 or 2 really being rankable that high.
LikeLike
What is the deal with Joseph and his concussion/injury? Are the concussions enough of an issue to seriously downgrade him on our top 30 list? Where would you place him today?
LikeLike
He has had three, the latest in May. Way too many for a 22-year old.
LikeLike
“Are the concussions enough of an issue to seriously downgrade him on our top 30 list?”
For me, yes, since he has apparently had multiple concussions and plays one of the rare positions where he is especially susceptible to another concussion. Also (and I can’t stress this enough having had a child who worked through concussion issues), concussion damage is cumulative and, with each concussion, the player’s athletic and personal future is put in greater jeopardy. At some point, an athlete gets to a point where he or she simply cannot continue playing if another concussion is sustained. I’m not sure if Tommy Joseph is at that point of no return, but I can tell you that when my stepdaughter (who is a brilliant student and hopes to become a doctor) sustained her last concussion, the experts looked at her and us and said that, if she had one more concussion, she would have to stop playing hockey or risk impairing her future in academia. Let me tell you, this concussion stuff is very scary indeed.
LikeLike
Perhaps first base will be Joseph’s final destination…now we know why the Giants were leaning in that direction.
LikeLike
Given what Joseph looks like with the bat so far, he’d have almost no worth as a 1st basemen without serious improvement.
LikeLike
Agreed – presently, 80% of his value is tied to his remaining behind the plate. As a catcher, he’s a top 5 or so prospect in the system. As a first baseman, he struggles to make the top 30 even though he is very young for AAA (where I assume he will be returned).
LikeLike
Gillies, Collier, Valle, Colvin, Walding, Hudson, Simon — done as top 30 guys?
LikeLike
Gillies and Walding are definitely still in. In fact, don’t be surprised if Gillies surges in the next two months (also, don’t be surprised if he falls off the face of the earth).
LikeLike
Agree about Gillies. He’s 24 in AAA, plays an up the middle defensive position more than well enough to stick, and the new swing is at least promising.
Injuries are always an issue, but if he stays healthy, his floor is a 4/5th outfielder in the majors, and his ceiling is an everyday CFer.
LikeLike
I realize you are not asking the readers, but I have all of them out of my top 30, except Sebastian Valle. Who I kept on in the late 20’s due to age/level, in comparison to Knapp and Rupp.
LikeLike
I think I have them all out of my top 30, but Walding barely missing and Valle missing by more. Valle has just imploded, much as Marson did as he moved to the top pf the system. I don’t know what to make of Valle. Injured? Older than he claims to be? Just enough wear and tear from catching that his hitting has really suffered? The opposing pitching coaches have figured him out. He is doing better of late, but is having an awful year, after not having a very good year last season. Last season, the pre-third-concussion Joseph passed him, now Rupp has past him. A couple more years and some of the kid catchers will be moving up from the low minors. I’m a Valle fan, but fear he is done.
LikeLike
How much should we downgrade Morgan’s ranking and ETA in the bigs, because of the shoulder injury?
LikeLike
Guy who improved the most this season as a prospect?
LikeLike
Most improved
1. Franco (from promising to dominating – possible top 25-30 in baseball)
2. Tocci (has stuck at Lakewood as a 17 year old – great stuff!)
3. Biddle (from potential 3 to possible 1)
4. Zach Green (another excellent third base prospect – wow!)
5. Dugan (legitimate and intriguing corner outfield bat)
6. Hernandez (has made it clear he is a legitimate major league prospect)
7. Cozens (seems to be progressing very nicely)
8. Perkins (another interesting bat – the reports from the farm are glowing)
9. Lino (looks like he may be the real deal)
10. Rupp (he may be the best sleeper in the whole system, seems poised, at the least, to be a solid big league back-up and thetr might be even more projection in that powerful body than we know)
LikeLike
Notice something about this list? Where are the pitchers (Gonzalez could certainly be on the list, so I’ll own up to that)? It could definitely be a coincidence, but I have previously questioned the Phillies’ minor league pitching instruction – it concerns me. How can guys with arms as good as Aumont, Diekman, Rosenberg, and DeFratus get sent down and essentially all get absolutely lit up at the lower level? Again, it could coincidence or perhaps the results were bad but those pitchers were focusing on some very specific things which caused their performances to suffer, but it’s VERY disconcerting.
LikeLike
What about Pettibone? I understand he has graduated prospect status, but he was a prospect at the beginning of the year and his stock has certainly gone up since then.
LikeLike
I’d put Aaron Altherr on this list as well, despite his recent struggles.
LikeLike
Can’t say I’d put Lino on that list his numbers have been meh with low BB% and high K%. Seems to be mostly BABIP driven. Perkins is interesting and deserving to be on the list but I worry that he is the next Steve Susdorf. To me Cozens is more holding steady his prospect status rather than improving it.
To those asking about pitchers: Mecias would have definitely made the list before getting injured and I think Gonzalez deserves as much consideration as Perkins because like Perkins he has an uncertain prospect status going forward but came from nowhere to stirring conversation on this board.
LikeLike
Gueller?
LikeLike
Most Improved prospects ’13:
1. Franco
2. Rosin
3. Mecias
4. Altherr
LikeLike
Isn’t Mecias having Tommy John surgery?
LikeLike
Yeah, that doesn’t mean his stock can’t still have risen.
LikeLike
He won’t start a game until 2015
LikeLike
Here’s my question:
Is it a concern when Keith Law and Jadon Parks who have both seen Franco live come away not impressed even after what he’s doing in AA?
LikeLike
Has Law made his latest eval on Franco? What did he say about this weekend’s viewing?
LikeLike
This is what he Tweeted last night:
I did, wasn’t great. Blog post tomorrow. RT @Living4laughs: @keithlaw Did you see Franco this weekend? Thoughts?
LikeLike
I assume you won’t be publishing your answers until after the draft signing deadline has passed. What letter grade would you give to our signed haul from this draft compared to 1) the rest of MLB, 2) what could reasonably be expected given our position in the draft and our bonus allocation? How does this draft compare to 2008, 2011, and 2012 (in terms of overall talent yield, not draft strategy/focus).
LikeLike
MattWinks……have you contact Keith Law yet concerning this weekend?
LikeLike
Law hinted on twitter that he wasn’t too impressed, said he’d have a write-up on Franco today.
LikeLike
Most of these posts aren’t questions, are they?
LikeLike
Another question: the year is 2016 – where is Anthony Hewitt and where is Larry Green Jr.?
LikeLike
Hewitt is cut, Greene is in Double A
LikeLike
Between 2005 and 2007, the Cardinals selected 30 players who have played at the big league level (If I count right, the Phillies selected 20 such players). If you were to look at the 2009 – 2011 draft classes, how many players do you think – when all is said and told – will have been drafted by the Phillies that will appear in an MLB game?
LikeLike
For those that listen to Steve Czaban – “this may be a dumb question, but”..
When various publications rank the farm systems, do they put more emphasis on the “quality” or “quantity”. For example – say the Angels of a few years ago had Trout – say that out of the rest of their farm system they had 2 or 3 other guys who were fringe prospects(i.e one guy who is a top 5 prospect, and a handful of others that are outside the top 100).. How would they generally be ranked compared to a team with a higher quantity of good prospects, but no ‘elite’ prospects. Would they generally be ranked higher than a team that had 4 top 100 prospects (say one in the top 30, and 3 between 50 and 100)?
Along the same lines:
would you rather have the #10 overall prospect, or 3 # 50 prospects?
LikeLike
As of the end of the draft signing period, how would you rank the overall Phillies farm compared to the other 29 organizations? What about in terms of help over the next two years, compared to our NL East rivals?
LikeLike
Evidently Stan Kasten and Ned Colletti are dead-set on acquiring local guy Chase Utley as a rental for the Dodgersr stretch drive. Would Joc Pederson be a equal barter in return?
LikeLike
Probably he and a low a upside starting pitcher would be fair.
LikeLike
Not Matt, but if Ruben trades Utley for Pederson, he should be tarred and feathered. Pederson’s okay, but I honestly don’t think he projects to be any great shakes at the MLB level. The Dodgers have very few guys worth wanting, if they really want Utley, shake ’em down for one of those guys.
LikeLike
Biddle
Franco
______
Quinn
Tocci
Crawford
Morgan
______
Cozens
Green
Hernandez
Asche
Dugan
Rosin
Altherr
LikeLike
I think you have to have Martin in that third group. Gotta have Watson someplace on your lists.
LikeLike