33 thoughts on “Draft Retrospective – Projectable High School Pitcher”

1. Risky no matter who you pick, pitcher or fielder. Looking at that list we see just how few of them get to or close to MLB.

   No risk no reward.

   Our best of recent times appears to be Biddle, Hamels aside. The saying is that you gotta kiss many frogs before you find your prince/princess.

   Yet, some teams SEEM to do better than others all with the footnote of what position they have in the draft. Losing several #1 draft choices plus trading away viable prospects for more immediate results leaves a system bereft for the future. That is the present status of the organization.

   Looking at the Giants, we see a team built largely on pitching by drafting HS pitchers. Cain, Bumgarder(sp), and Lincecum have made them invulnerable to offensive woes with an MVP mid-lineup plus 3b. Not a lot else needed for offense.

   Hopefully, the Phils will be following this guide and add more HS pitchers starting #1 at #4. And follow with more so that maybe 6/7 of our first picks are HS pitchers. Meanwhile let’s watch Biddle and Hamels lead the staff starting in ’14.

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   1. I think you also need to factor in division/ballparks being pitcher friendly when talking about the Giants success. When you add in their park, the dodgers and the padres you’re talking about 100 games a year in pitcher friendly parks. Those parks have a way of reducing the effectiveness of batter-heavy/oriented teams.

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   2. Lincecum was a proven college arm when drafted out of the University of Washington

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2. Glad to see some draft preview talk.
   Regarding the topic of big pitchers: The guy that jumped out to me recently, is Phil Bickford of California. He is 6’4 200, supposedly has an easy arm motion, throws in the mid to high 90’s and is climbing the draft boards. He struck me as a Phillies type RH Pitcher. LH, Trey Ball also seems like a guy the Phillies could take. I agree with you that Kaminsky, being so short, doesn’t really fit the Phillies profile.

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3. I’m troubled by the fact the Phils just can’t seem to develop pitching, at least in quantity. The pitchers traded have all struggled greatly with performance and/or injury – Happ, Worley, Knapp, Carrasco, Drabek. They’ve basically developed two starting pitchers in the last 9 years – Hamels and Kendrick. All the others – Lee, Halladay, Blanton, Moyer have come via trade and free agency. Guess we could throw Myers in as being developed by Phils, albeit earlier. Then in the bullpen, while some teams seem to develop young power arms year after year, the Phils have developed very little. Madson was great for years, and Bastardo is having a nice early few years of his career, but almost all other key relief arms have come via trade / free agency – Papelbon, Lidge, Adams, Eyre, Romero, Horst, Qualls, Durbin, Contreras, etc. The young bullpen arms we’ve had the last few years have not developed nearly as well as we all hoped – Aumont remains highly inconsistent, Diekman has not been able to develop his command, DeFratus and Stutes have struggled with injuries, Schwimer was traded, and Rosenberg has not developed into a big leaguer as of yet.

   Does everyone agree or is this unfair?

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   1. I think we develop pitching well. HS pitchers are so unpredictable and are more likely to get hurt then not, so seeing all the injured pitchers you listed doesn’t surprise me. I also expect us to continue developing pitching in the future.

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   2. Not to say that the Phils are awesome and all other teams suck at developing players, but it’s not all the Phillies fault if a player they trade doesn’t pan out right?

      I mean, guys like Carrasco and Drabek were pretty good prospects here when they were traded. If the Indians and Blue Jays couldn’t figure out how to develop them, it’s not our fault. And of course, both of those guys have been hit with injury problems, which could happen to anybody.

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      1. Carrasco’s star was in decline by the time he was traded. Although three of the four players we traded for Lee were on BA pre-season top 100 I don’t think any of them were considered top 100 at the time of the trade. Only the one who wasn’t a top 100 in the pre-season (Knapp) was ascending on the prospect list.

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   3. If you’re going to give them credit for developing Knapp, you have to give them credit for Gavin Floyd.

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   4. Curious, what teams have developed pitching? The Giants is an obvious selection now.
      Maybe the Rays another. Now do you mean from drafted to first start with the same team?

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      1. The Rays have been good in the past but the secret is that they haven’t drafted a player from 2008 to now who has made the major leagues. The Giants have three first round picks at the top of theirs. But otherwise you are looking at the Nats (Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Detwiler, all 1st or 2nd round), Boston (Lester and Buchholz who are 2nd and 1st round pick), and the Phillies with Hamels and Kendrick. But in reality most teams don’t develop a ton of pitchers from start to finish.

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         1. Cardinals young pitching is sensational with Miller, Martinez, Rosenthal, and Kelly. Wacha is on his way too.

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4. Agree. Perhaps better scouts are needed. Something is failing in their judgment on prospect pitchers. An inquiry is needed. And changes made.

   Finding pitching gems has escaped the Phils while others do so much better. A virtual bare cupboard.

   Digging deeper in the weeds is needed. Does the FO take heed?

   Has this issue been presented to RAJ and the owners for response? I wish some reporter would ask the question AND follow-up. It’s time…because of the great support this franchise has enjoyed from we fans. Holding the FO office accountable needs to be adressed and soon as both the big club and the minor lg teams are mired in quicksand; needed: moves to hoist this mngmnt out of the mire and into a superior team that WE deserve!

   Accountability demanded.

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5. In my opinion the credit and blame for development end at the time of the trade. You develop players to help your team whether that is for you or in trade. For example in the case of Knapp they turned a second round pick into the centerpiece of a trade for Cliff Lee and it ends there. But injuries happen and how many teams have really developed a bunch of pitchers outside of the first round? In reality with a 5 man rotation you only need to develop a starting pitcher every couple of years. So to get Hamels, Kendrick, Worley, Carrasco, Happ, Pettibone to the majors with Morgan, Cosart, and Biddle to make it the next year and a half is actually pretty good developmentally (not to mention Floyd and Myers and Drabek who made it to the majors)

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6. Due to volatile nature of High School pitching, all things being equal, I would much prefer the Phillies select a HS position player with the 16th pick. My wish list at this point is:

   1. Jon Denney C
   2. JP Crawford SS
   3. Dominic Smith OF/1B
   4. Nick Ciuffo C
   5. Reese McGuire C

   They could also play it safe and take a college pitcher like Chris Anderson, and fast track him to Clearwater, this year.

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   1. Except — when is the last time the Phillies scored with a primo-round HS position player? D’Arnauld may make it for another team. Beyond that? I think you need to go all the way back to Rollins. Some first round and supplemental and second round big busts since then. Gose still with a chance, but looks like stardom will elude him.

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      1. They haven’t hit on a High school position player because they haven’t taken many in the 1st round, and they haven’t drafted this high since 2002. The primo HS players are always gone by the time the Phillies pick, unless they are injured, like Hamels.

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   2. I doubt Denney falls to us, everything I’ve read has him going top 10. I’m hoping for Dominic Smith, but I wouldn’t have a problem with Kohl Stewart or Trey Ball(as a pitcher)

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      1. Kohl will go top 6. He’s the top prep pitcher in the class. Smith or JP Crawford for me. Wouldn’t hate Renfroe either.

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7. Can Cameron Rupp be the Phillie’s version of Evan Gattis? Me thinks maybe.

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8. This is off topic. But I think Rupp would bring less power and more defense than Gattis, if he makes it. Probably similar on-base issues though.

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   1. I though Kratz was the next Gattis?

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9. All draft picks should be drafted on projection. Players should all be valuable based on what is proejcted of them in the majors even if traded prior to that.

   Since fastball velocity seems to have one of the stronger correlations to major league success, I think James pointed this out a while ago, it makes sense to try to draft large framed pitchers who project for more velocity. All the rest (breaking pitches, command, mental approach) will need to be developed as the prospect moves through the organization.

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10. Conor Glassey of BA reports:
    PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES –Top 10-Rd. Picks: 16, 53, 89, 96, 121, 151, 181, 211, 241, 271 & 301
    Bonus Pool: $6,045,100 Scouting Director: Marti Wolever (12th year)
    ‘…….As a large-market team with a recent history of success, the Phillies are used to picking low. In fact, the team’s average first pick over the past 5 years has been 41st-overall—third-highest in baseball in that time span, behind only the Angels (49.4) and Tigers (48.2). The second-highest in the National League is the Braves at 26.2. The Phillies haven’t had a pick as high as 16 since 2001, when the team picked Gavin Floyd No. 4 overall. Scouting director Marti Wolever puts a premium on athletes and isn’t afraid to roll the dice. If Southern California high school players such as Crawford or Smith get to this spot, it could be tempting. Any of the four of tooled-up college outfielders—Samford’s Phillip Ervin, Mississippi State’s Hunter Renfroe, Stanford’s Austin Wilson or Fresno State’s Aaron Judge—would make sense here, too.’

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    1. The only college bat I would take at 16, out of that group, would be Phillip Ervin. I skeptical of the Stanford bat. Judge , being 6’7, would make me pause (I don’t know any successful hitters that big). Haven’t seen any video of Renfroe. Ervin killed the Cape Cod league, and the Phillies value Cape Cod performance, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they picked him, and I wouldn’t have a problem with him as the 1st rounder.

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       1. Yes, I also like Phillip Ervin. So far this year he has 25 XBH (11HR) in 159 ABs, so he has pop. Not sure about the league competition however. And at 5’10”, 205/210 lbs he is built sturdy it would appear, a Marlon Byrd or KIrby Puckett physique. And then Aaron Judge…someone that big…. would have to go back to Frank Howard in the 60’s/70s for a large-man’s comp.Though did read scouting reports he has plus-speed, plus-arm for corner OF positions.

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       2. The more I read about Ervin, the better I feel about the Phils taking him. I would be happy if they took him

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11. Are people claiming the Phillies don’t draft HS pitchers well? Biddle,May, Pettibone, Cosart, Knapp, etc. These guys were all hits. Not misses. None of them were first rounders. Most were late picks. Most of these guys are bona-fide prospects or were traded for a major leaguer. I think Wolever does an amazing job selecting young pitchers who end up helping the team in one way or another.

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    1. Biddle was a first rounder.

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       1. “‘Most’ were late picks”

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12. Now that’s funny knapp cosart pettibone, may. all hof pitchers. amaze how people just defend the Phillies.

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    1. Lol people like you amaze me!

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    2. Who’s comparing them to Hall of Famers. They have contributed to the Phillies in one way or another and are STILL young.

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