Hot or Not

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A look back at the April 24-30 time period.  Quick thoughts/questions…What should Biddle’s timeline for promotion be?….Very rough week for the Lakewood rotation….Cesar Hernandez remains on fire. As solely a 2B, what should the Phils do next year if he keeps it up?10 RBI week for Maikel Franco whose stock is clearly rising into the very top echelon of Phils prospects…Zach Collier is overmatched at AA(0-8, 7K’s the last two days)…Start paying attention to Mauricio Robles. He is on the 40 man roster and has been dominant this year, striking out 22 in 15.1IP, with a WHIP well below 1.

Hot Hitters:(12AB MIN) William Carmona (.500, 5R, 4RBI); Cesar Hernandez, (.458, 6R HR 3RBI, 3SB); Cameron Perkins (.412, 5R); Darin Ruf (.400, 3HR 9RBI); Kelly Dugan(.375, HR 3RBI); Tyler Henson (.368); Maikel Franco (.333, 5R 3HR 10RBI);   Honorable Mention: Castro, Rupp, Pointer

Not Hot Hitters: Edgar Duran (.059); Roman Quinn (.077); Zach Collier (.100); Logan Moore (.125); Larry Greene (.125); Albert Cartwright (.125); Dis (Honorable) Mention:  Orr, Overbeck, Martinez, Hudson

Hot Starters:Jesse Biddle (6IP 1H 0ER 3BB 10K); Gabrial Arias (5IP 2H 0ER 2BB 4K); Seth Rosin (7.0IP 5H 1ER 0BB 3K);Hoby Milner (5IP 3H 1ER 3BB 5K); Ethan Stewart (6IP 3H 2ER 3BB 4K);  David Buchanan (6.2IP 9H 2ER 0BB 3K)

Not Hot Starters: Josh Warner (2IP 7H 6ER 1BB); Kevin Brady (2IP 4H 5ER 3BB); Ethan Martin (2 starts, 9IP 9H 7ER 10BB 8K); Shane Watson (3IP 6H 6ER); Tom Cochran (4.2IP 4H 3ER 4BB 3K)

Hot Relievers:Mauricio Robles (4IP 1H 0ER 3BB 5K);Steven Inch (3.2IP 1H 0ER, SV)Michael Nesseth (4IP 1H 0ER 1BB 2K); Juan Sosa (3.1IP 1H 0ER 1BB 3K); Hector Neris (2IP 1H 0ER 0BB 1K); Colton Murray (4.2IP 3H 1ER 0BB 3K); Miguel Nunez(3.1IP 2H 1ER).

Not Hot Relievers: Colby SHreve (0.2IP 6H 5ER); Felix Santos (1.2IP 6H 5ER 3BB); Jake Diekman (2.1IP 4H 5ER 5BB 0K); Andrew Aizenstadt (2.1IP 1H 4ER 5BB); Jeb STefan (3.2IP 6H 5ER); Luis Paulino (2.2IP 5H 4ER); Justin Friend (3.2IP 4H 4ER); Zach Cooper (2IP 5H 3ER); Mario Hollands (1IP 3H 2ER); JC Ramirez (2IP 2H 2ER);

39 thoughts on “Hot or Not”

  1. I believe if Biddle has two more dominate starts we move him up. What to make of Tyler Henson? Is his best position third?

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    1. I think it’s highly unlikely that it would only take 2 similar starts. It’s not a knock on biddle though, more that the phillies don’t look like they need to rush him (they don’t look like contenders who would be pushed over the top by the addition of biddle). His earliest call up unless 2 of the 5 original starts go out on long term injuries is July.

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      1. I agree Supra. July would be the earliest but if a couple of starters have their arms fall off, he might be up a little earlier.

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  2. There’s no reason to rush Biddle to AAA. His Philadelphia ETA is 2015 or (if David Murphy’s timeline is to be believed) 2016. If he’s still dominating the league like this after a couple trips around, sure, it’s worth talking about accelerating him. But for now, I think they should stick with the plan, which is to bring him along at a patient pace.

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    1. I agree, I don’t think the Phillies should rush his development. There is no emergency need, if the Phils are contenders they will probably go with a veteran starter to fill any void. If they fall completely out of contention and there are trades and/or injuries, I would think they would promote Morgan or even Martin to see what they have in them rather than rush Biddle. I think 2015 is somewhat conservative though, he could easily pitch his way into the big league rotation next season.

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    2. Jesse Biddle is not Cole Hamels having said that Cole’s highest number of IP in the minors was 101 in his age 19 Season. He only logged 201 IP total in the Minors, had only 19 Total in REA and 23 Total in AAA.

      Biddle already has 350 IP so I see his call up being much sooner than 2016 and quite possibly as early as 2014.

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    3. 2016? I haven’t seen that exact reference from Murph but it’s odd that he would identify with 2016. I’d say Sept 2014 is a distinct possibility. Maybe not 50/50 but still a decent chance. I’d also say that 2015 is a near certainty

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    4. I don’t think you guys have been watching Biddle very carefully. His development is very advanced. If he dominates for another month at Reading, he’ll be promoted to Lehigh by June. If he dominates at Lehigh, he could be promoted before the end of the year. At worst, he should make his debut sometime during 2014. I’ve seen the games he’s pitched. His 16 K performance would have been a 9 or 10 K shut down performance in the big leagues. He’s lethal and, again, he has a legit #1 ceiling, although, long-term, he more likely projects as a really good #2 (in terms of stats, think Jordan Zimmerman or Max Scherzer – a pitcher who can be scary good on any given day).

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      1. An optimist! Everyone, an optimist over here! Let’s burn him to the stake!

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      2. In your projection at the end you are missing his biggest asset. Biddle’s frame projects for him to be a 200+ IP / year workhorse. That more than anything is a reason for optimism. I have always agreed with Kevin Goldstein who would say that innings pitched is the most underrated stat for a pitch.

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    5. Sorry, I remembered incorrectly on Murphy: I went back and looked and he said 2014 or 2015, not 2015 or 2016. Which makes a lot more sense.

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  3. There was a chat question on BA yesterday that brought up an issue about Franco I’ve never seen before:

    Camden (Philly): Can you please help me understand what is meant by Maikel Franco’s “arm-bar swing?” Does he have the potential to be a top 50 prospect by season end?
    Jim Callis: Not sure I can explain this well but I’ll try … It’s an overextension of the front arm in a swing, which adds length to the swing and makes it difficult to handle good inside fastballs. I like Franco some, he’s one of the best position prospects in the Phillies system, but don’t see him as a future Top 50 guy.

    Has anyone heard of this? I’ve always heard nothing but positives about Franco’s swing.

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  4. If Franco had a hole in his swing like Callis says, he’d have a much higher K%. under 15% second year in a row and 3 out of the last 4. Franco had another huge night – 2 for 3, 2 BB.

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    1. Not necessarily. Pitching inside is kind of a lost art in Baseball (because some players often where body armor ala Barry Bonds, no one tries to avoid getting hit or even dive into balls, and umpires have quick triggerrs to warn and throw out pitchers who hit batters). This is even more true in the (low) minors where pitchers are still working on command and control. I haven’t seen enough of Franco’s at bats to know whether he sees many pitches in side.

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    2. It isn’t a fatal flaw, many players have a hole against premium stuff inside. It is more just a knock against him that separates him from being an elite prospect. Saying he isn’t a Top 50 prospect is not a huge knock. A 3B right outside the Top 50 this past year was Nolan Arenado and he is doing pretty good.

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  5. So…can we agree that the first players we look for each day are Biddle (when he’s pitching) and Franco? Maybe later in the season we’ll have reason to anxiously watch some more “potentials” who qualify for our attention.

    So far, if you’re a Phils fan in regard to the whole organization–from prospects through the big club–you’ve got to be almost horrified:

    Joseph looks like a lot less than the assured future catcher and more of a project both at bat and field. (Didn’t the phils adequately scout him before the trade?)Collier can’t hit a lick. Quinn is facing the prospect of becoming a lot less of a prospect. Green has shown why he wasn’t a good early draft choice. Watson…etc.

    And the Revere experiment seems a loud failure. With only Brown showing well, the outfield is holy beyond faith. Though I don’t appreciate Cholly as much as some, I have to admit he’s been dealt a horrendous hand.

    With Halladay going, going, gone, the only righty in the rotation who is MLB caliber is Kendrick….whoever would have thought he’d be the best pitcher on the whole staff?

    Question: keeping Ruiz w an extension, does RAJ have the cahones and ability to convince mgmnt that wholesale changes must be made, sooner rather than later.

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    1. RAJ cannot convince himself…he hedges all his bets, sits on a fence. He does not like risk taking or ‘walks’ for that matter. As a result, what you get will be mediocrity, neither terribly bad nor outstandingly great.

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      1. Of RAJ’s crimes and misdemeanors, I don’t think indecisiveness is one of them. If anything it’s being too rash and impatient. It’s also not knowing what the _uck he’s doing at times.

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    2. That could happen once they sign their new television contract for several billion dollars(read 4-5 billion from Jeff Passan). I don’t think that Ruben or the FO wanted to resign Rollins and that Montgomery pushed that deal. Probably true for the second Cliff Lee trade also.

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    3. Art, Joseph and Quin are young for their leagues but the Phillies believe in pushing talented prospects so give them some time before you label them as failures.

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          1. He’ll be 20 in two weeks though. He’s at the same level as most of the better high school prospects from his draft class. According to baseball reference, there’s 25 players who are playing as 19 or younger in in SAL (younger than Quinn) and another 48 who are playing as 20 y/o. He’s not old, but he’s not young.

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  6. On moving Biddle up,I disagree,I feel if he’s ready to move up why wait? On the estimated ETA, that can be moved up if he is ready.Why waste his arm in the minor leagues,if he would be capable of being fast tracked to the big league club? Obviously the scouts would need to determine that.

    It’s not like the starters are all pitching like ones and twos,besides even if they were,trade one of them and fill a need that you have.

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    1. NO riggs you are, I agree. If he’s ready there is no point in waiting. Look around the majors, alot of teams have these young guns steeping in and making a difference

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      1. Dude has 3-4 starts above A ball. But sure, bring him up and throw him to the wolves. If he struggles, you can’t complain at all.

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    2. Given that Biddle’s outpitch is a curveball, some time in AAA would be very beneficial as it is littered with AAAA guys who can hit the slow stuff (or just hit the fast stuff), but will really punish mistake pitches. I don’t understand many of the ETA’s thrown out, he could be up late in the summer but I think it is more likely that he will compete for job in spring training and then be up in the May-June timeframe. He isn’t ready for the big leagues right now and probably won’t be for a while, the changeup needs refinement and the command has been spotty at times.

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      1. Thanks for logic Matt. Some people don’t understand that. Then they are the first to criticize when that player struggles (see Brown, Domonic).

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        1. Brown is an example but there’s plenty of ones i could find that came up early and succeed. and Matt just curios how do you know this? Do you go to the games?

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          1. I haven’t been to Reading this year (I now live in Wisconsin), have watched plenty of games and gotten all the reports I can. I am not saying Biddle won’t do well in AAA or that he can’t be an impact in the majors this, there are still plenty of things he needs to work on, but once you are in AA it is only a step away from the majors (the stop in AAA is not required).

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      2. Matt – you and I agree completely on the timing. He’s not all that far from the big leagues right now. Often times, teams that make a late season run are buoyed by the performances of hot rookies (see Giants circa 2010). If the Phils are in the running, the best move they might make would be to promote Biddle. Trust me, other teams are not going to enjoy running into him. He’s really good.

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        1. Agreed. If he does struggle its all part of the development process. Sheesh we have two Cy Young winners that came up and got sent back down. I think they both found their way back to the big leagues.

          There is only so much you can do in the kiddie pool. There comes a point in time where they make you jump into the deep end. Sometimes the kid just swims and never looks back. Sometimes he learns what he didn’t know about pitching in the MLB.

          if he’s a quality kid he goes back down and figures it out.

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  7. Thanks for all of the good comments guys.I didn’t mean that he would get sent directly to the majors,just fast-tracked if he (Biddle) could handle it.And, that would be determined by the scouts,they should know far better than any of us.

    And,that could be done whether the phillies are good enough for a playoff spot,or even if they’re having a fire sale.Because a lot of players go thru an adjustment period,when they arrive in the majors,and if you fast track him,it would speed up that process as well.

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