Taking Stock a Month In – They Are Who We Thought They Were

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We often think of minor league players as needing to continuing to improve.  Sometimes it is almost as good to sustain success on a higher level.  the second part of this series taking stock in the system looks at  the guys where nothing has really changed this year.  Some of the stats may be slightly above or below but the profile has not changed.

Adam Morgan – Morgan has been dominant at times and has struggled during other times.  He is more the guy he was in Reading then Clearwater, which is a very solid #3 starter with some upside.  Despite clamoring for him to be called up, Morgan still has a lot to do on the AAA level.  He now has only about 66 innings (11 starts) above A ball, and could easily take the whole year to refine his secondary pitches without it affecting his value.

Cameron Rupp – On first glance it looks like he is off to a slow start (and he is to some extent with a low BABIP), but this is who he is.  The hit tool is going to be fringy but he is going to hit for power, draw his share of walks, and play solid defense.  I may have been too low on him but he is still a really good backup catcher who might catch on as second division starter for a team or two in his career.

Darin Ruf – Ruf has heated up lately to return the power numbers to where we would expect them.  He still has his share of problems such as the a declining walk rate and increased strikeout rate (a trend since the power surge began) and more importantly the outfield defense.  Ruf is a major leaguer and should help the Phillies this year but he hasn’t exactly answered any of the questions and remains somewhere short of a average regular starter.

Jonathan Pettibone – Ignore the stats for a minute (AAA and major league), Pettibone is doing exactly what we expected.  He is providing solid and unspectacular innings with limited upside.  There is no reason that he can’t continue his performance on the major league levels for the rest of the year (5-6 IP a start ERA ~4.5) and that is a solid back end starter on a minimum salary.

Cody Asche – Asche has begun heating up to bring his numbers in line.  He will hit for a higher average but he is what he is, a solid third base prospect with average power, plus hit, and average defense.

Mitch Walding – Based on the scouting reports this is exactly the guy we should be expecting.  He has the ability to put the ball in play at a good rate, there is power potential, but it needs unlocking.  The walk rate and strikeout rate are decent making him an overall solid third base prospect with a good amount of upside and growth potential left.

Not a whole lot of insight to be had here as this is the area of no change, more guys to discuss on Friday with Hot Starts.  If he had a larger sample size Kelly Dugan probably would have made this list as well.  As always these are in relation to my preseason expectations so feel free to consult my Top 30 for comparison.

 

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About Matt Winkelman

Matt is originally from Mt. Holly, NJ, but after a 4 year side track to Cleveland for college he now resides in Madison, WI. His work has previously appeared on Phuture Phillies and The Good Phight. You can read his work at Phillies Minor Thoughts

16 thoughts on “Taking Stock a Month In – They Are Who We Thought They Were”

  1. I’d put Watson on this list. He’s had some terrific and some terrible starts but clearly he’s shown that he has the ability to be very good. Perci Garner is another one I’d put on this list. I think he has a chance to be a major league bullpen guy if he continues to improve his control. DeFratus too, he’s doing what I expected. and Art Charles too.

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    2. I guess Watson’s nickname should be T&T (terrific and terrible) or is that terrible & terrific.

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  2. Would you say that Tocci is who we all thought he was? Given all the hype and high expectations, I’m a bit deflated at this point.

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    1. He appeared in the first segment with the label of don’t panic. Stats really aren’t going matter for him this year. The baseball skills are there and the body is not there yet. Lakewood was an ultra-aggressive assignment that the Phillies made knowing he wasn’t ready physically for but was ready mentally for. If he goes back down to Williamsport he is still ahead of the developmental curve. Don’t be too deflated, the worst report I have heard on him is that he is slightly overmatched at the plate. Has put on muscle and strength since last year.

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    2. For the level he’s been stretch to, Tocci is meeting expectations. This really is not the year that will tell the tale on Tocci, he is just so young and so skinny.

      To Mattwinks — what was the first half of this list?

      I think those guys who are meeting expectations, apart from Biddle, are less significant than the ones who aren’t getting it done. The early season performances of guys like Joseph, Valle, Martin, Collier are most discouraging as they were guys near to making a contribution at the big league level.

      I think I would have said all of the guys on today’s list had performed below my expectations for this season and I don’t think my expectations were unreasonable. You are giving a lot of credit for guys heating up in the past week. For guys to make it to the bigs they have to do well in ST and can’t start their seasons for real in the last week of April. Ruf is the glaring guy is this regard. It was there for him on a silver platter to start the season with the Phillies in the absence of D Young. He didn’t come close to getting it done.

      I agree with you on Morgan, he is about where I expected him to be.

      I’m a bit disappointed in Asche, thinking he would start the year being better with the bat. Same for Rupp. A batting average of 226 and an OPS of around ,640 aren’t going to get it done. This is worse than he hit last year and Reading is a lot better hitting environment. I think that you are being really generous to Rupp. A batting average of Really all three of our high-level catchers have disappointed thus far, although Rupp not nearly so much as Joseph. It looks like putting Joseph in AAA to start the season was a mistake.

      Pettibone is strange. He was a lot worse in the minors than I expected, but has been about what I expected he could be or better in the bigs.

      Walding has done well, a little better than I thought he would.

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      1. The slow start list came out on Monday and the Hot starts will be out on Friday (including all the names you would expect). The biggest difference here is sample size and skill set. No one on this list has done anything different. The scouting reports are the same and they look the same as they did last year. I was lower on most of these guys (Morgan and Walding being exceptions) than the consensus. To think that Ruf was a start OF was just not looking at the facts, Asche has been down on statistically in LHV but looked good in Spring and there hasn’t been a change in reports. Rupp is what he is, optimistically he is going to hit about .240 at the major league level so he isn’t far below, he could be Erik Kratz with solid defense.

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      2. When I looked at Pettibone these last two appearnces, flash-backs of the early 2007 Kendrick come to my mind.

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        1. Romus stole my thunder. I think most are undervaluing Pettibone. His tools aren’t as loud as Morgan or Martin, but when Steve Lerud was asked who impressed him most last year at Reading, he said Pettibone, and he cited presence. Presence is a tool – like heart. Not as quantifiable, but not necessarily less valuable, and in some cases more. For years, Kendrick has been labeled a number 5 starter. This year the Phillies entrusted him with the 4 slot. And he’s pitching like a 2. I’m not saying he is a 2, but so far, he’s pitching like one. And Pettibone’s got better stuff than Kendrick. I think he’s an adjustment away, like perfecting his cutter, from being more than people think. And he’s just the type of cerebral pitcher to figure it out.

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          1. If Pettibone develops another put-away pitch (which is what Kendrick did), then yes he would be more than a #5. It’s not particularly common for a pitcher to reach the majors and then learn how to throw another plus pitch, though.

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          2. Agreed, especially if Pettibone can sit between 91-93 with the FB and touch 94 or 95 when he really needs it. If he sits in the high 80s touching 91 or 92, he’s going to suffer from the same problems currently affecting Roy Halladay. You wouldn’t think that such a minimal difference in velocity would make such a huge difference, but for guys without a true put away pitch, it does. It’s why the Kendrick change-up has been such a game changer for him. Pettibone’s somewhat understated plusses are, in no particular order: (a) his generally good velocity; (b) his mental make-up, composure and background (you don’t think having a Dad who pitched in the majors helps? Sure it does); (c) his physical attributes (good arm, perfect pitching build); and (d) his well above average command for a younger pitcher. It really wouldn’t surprise me if he becamse a solid #3, but it might take several years. He’s still quite a work in progress.

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  4. I’d have Franco on this list. I thought this is who he was based on his huge second half last season. He’s just continuing what he started in 2012.

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  5. I’d also have Diekman on this list. Don’t think he’ll ever have enough control at this point.

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  6. Not sure about Walding’s power potential, 1 HR in 350 at bats isn’t exactly power.

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  7. I came into this season very excited, the excitement has definitely worn off. Outside of Biddle and Franco there has been very few bright spots. I sure hope certain guys start to pick it up, April has been rather forgettable. Right now I only check Reading scores when Biddle pitches and Ive been avoiding the Lakewood boxes since they do nothing but depress me right now. Atleast there is plenty of room for improvement!

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