Box Score Recap 8-30-2012

Box Score Recap

Darin Ruf did something.  And hey, so did Justin Friend.  Team records for both.  Congrats!

LV  REA  CLR  LKW  WIL

192 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 8-30-2012”

        1. Wasn’t thinking that deeply into it. I can see all three at least in Clearwater next year. CF, 3B, OF/1B. And yes, I know, Altherr might project better at the corner OF spot. And I really haven’t heard enough about Dugan’s fielding. Although his health issues seem to mirror Gillies. 🙂

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        2. I was thinking a back-to-back-to-back combo that gives opposing hitters and managers nightmares. Or, a trio with legit prospects of playing at CBP. (Yes, I think Ruf has a legit shot). Of course, my scenario depends on Tocci jumping to Lakewood and handling it next season, but I think highly enough of the kid to believe it will happen.

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  2. Darin Ruf is having a season in double A that we may not see in this organization in the next twenty years!!! I enjoyed this month very much,looking at the box scores every day especially Ruf,Asche,and Gillies.It will be exciting to see how they perform at the next level.

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    1. I don’t normally agree with you but this is the exact sentiment we should have. It is something completely awesome lets see how it goes from here, no projection on how they will be later, rather lets just enjoy how great that was to witness.

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    2. First time I think i’ve ever responded to one of your posts but I couldn’t agree more. He’s having an amazing year. It says something when a player sets an all time record in their league, regardless of his age or the scouts who doubt him. Great year, I hope he gets a chance to prove everyone wrong in philly soon. Kudos to Ruf.

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    3. Ruf – I love the attitude of just stand back, watch, and applaud. Even if this is highlight season of his professional baseball career, it a pretty stinking awesome highlight. It’s fun to watch it.

      Asche – How on earth has he gotten his statistics that high? If I recall correctly his first 15 or so games after the promotion were and absolute hitting nightmare. That’s 25% of the games he’s played at that level.

      Gillies – Here are his stats from his great High Desert season and AA this year.
      HD – ab 498, aver .341, 2b 17, 3b 14, HR 9, bb 60, k 81, sb 44, cs 19, obp .430,
      AA – ab 259, aver .305, 2b 13, 3b 7, HR 4, bb 17, k 49, sb 8, cs 5, obp .371,
      The strikeout/walk rates are somewhat troubling, and he clearly isn’t running much which is understandable given the injuries and asche and ruf mashing behind him. But on the whole their fairly comparable which is great to see given the injury issues and amount of time he missed.

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  3. Franco with eight hits in his last three games. Great game for Gillies … two doubles and a walk. It’s great to see him experiencing good health and success this late in a season.

    Musser is giving up runs in bunches despite having pretty solid K/BB numbers of late. Clearly he’s finding the strike zone, although hitters are teeing off.

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    1. Yeah, I saw him the other day and thought about mentioning it. He is a little old for his league, but he’s got a couple years to develop before he would need to be protected, so hard to argue he’s not worth keeping an eye on. Wish we had someone at Lakewood games reporting on velocity and the like of these guys. Seems like we never hear from anyone who sees that team in person.

      Perhaps I should move to Lakewood, NJ. “BradinLKW”?

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  6. Some guys flying under the radar with the ridiculousness going on in AA right now that it is nice to see:
    Leandro Castro – Still doesn’t walk but doesn’t K too much, continues to just hit, definitely worth protecting in my mind as there could still be something there
    Larry Greene – Not a spectacular debut year but he is patient enough that an offseason of coaches tweaking things and a new realization of the work needed, he is high on my breakout list for next year
    Logan Moore – Just add to the catching depth, anyone have any scouting reports on him?

    One final thought, Anthony just set a new career high in walks with his 18th yesterday, there may be hope still (outside of July where he decided not to walk ever he was on pace to show a noticeable improvement that would have been encouraging that he was slowly getting better). He is one of my favorite guys to follow because the expectations are so low that anything he does is exciting and encouraging.

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    1. not that i expect him to touch it, but if hewitt were to break out to 270 next yr what would people think about him

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      1. If he hit .270 with 30BB (.270 w/o the walks I wouldn’t go near), you have to figure he hits at least 25-30 HR at Reading (I suspect he hits 20 on accident with his power). He would be 24 and a prospect with a 4th OF ceiling, it would be higher than Ruf’s on defensive value. I would throw a poor man’s Mark Trumbo comp on him, that would be nice.

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      2. 270 strikeouts? 🙂

        In seriousness, as long as he’s striking out 30 percent of the time, he’s not going to be a prospect in my mind.

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      3. IF it were accompanied by an improved contact rate (hopefully also across the board improvement in other areas as well), then people might be inclined to think about maybe looking at him as a marginal prospect again.

        If he still struck out over 30% of the time but got his BA up to respectable levels because of an insanely high BABIP – well, you would still have SOME peopel around here thinking he was a prospect, but they would be wrong.

        Another way of looking at this is that BA is the LAST place to look at for Hewiit going forward. I prefer not to look at him at all, but if I were to, I’d focus on the absurdly bad BB and K rates. Even with improvement in the former this year (the latter was just as bad as 2011, albeit better than his horrible career rate), he still strikes out more than 7 times as often as he walks. Get that down to even five to one and we’ll see.

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        2. Something else here – related to the Rollins debate. I trash Hewitt as a player regularly. But just because he never achieved his “potential,” I would NEVER make it a personal attack. I am sure that Hewitt works his butt off – I’m sure he is doing his best – but some players just don’t have the skills to, in the split second the ball is approaching the plate, determine what kind of pitch it is and where it is going, and do all this instinctively, because you don’t have time to THINK about it, and make good contact on a regular basis. It’s an amazing skill if you think about it, but it just looks like Hewitt doesn’t have it.

          But again, I wouldn’t THINK about attacking his work ethic, his attitude, etc. Yet we have Rollins – also, like Hewitt, well regarded when drafted – though “only” a second round pick – has achieved SO MUCH, a near HOF career, and what does he get for it … fat slobs sitting at their computer (or calling in to the idiots at WIP) and slagging his work ethic.

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          1. So now people who disagree with about your opinion on Rollins are not only racists, but fat slobs also?? Why do you find it necessary to personally attack those whose opinions are different than yours?

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            1. Why do you find it necessary to personally attack a near HOF baseball player? At least I have a rational basis for my attacks.

              I still remember the vile comment about Rollins that you posted a couple of days ago. No excuse for that, none at all, 1000 times worse than the worst comment I’ve ever made on this site. Go back to your WIP friends.

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            2. LarryM: I am officially calling a “truce”. After reading your last post, I am 100% CERTAIN that you have me confused with someone else. I have NEVER, nor would I ever, post anything about anybody that was considered vile or a personal attack. And, I have no doubt whatsoever that I have not posted anything about Jimmy Rollins that would be considered a personal attack on him. While it is a waste of time to review prior posts to find proof, if you did review the last week or so, you will see that I have written nothing that would justify your responses to me. I can assure you that my comments about Rollins were limited to my opinion that he has “underperformed” the past few years, at a time when I feel he should have blossomed. The worst comment I made about him was that I think he can be a selfish player, that’s it. Of course, you have every right to disagree, and I respect that right. However, your first reply to me when you referred to me as a racist, I could not understand for the life of me how you arrived at that opinion based on my post. I am convinced, that you must have replied to me thinking I wrote something that I did not. Also, you refer to WIP, I have never written a word about WIP. I never understood your reference to WIP in your replies to me. Let’s put this behind us. This is clearly a case of “mistaken Identity” that got out of hand. I alogize for anything I wrote that I should not have that may have offended you, but I was simply trying to defend myself, as I am not a racist, fat slop, or a WIP fan for that matter. I hope this make some sense to you. Have a good night. Thank you.

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            3. And I don’t “attack” people whose opinions are different than mine. Or try not too. I’m a little snide sometimes, I agree. But out and out attacks are limited to people who slime Rollins (or other Phillies) – and that’s not a matter of differing opinions, I’m just trying to encourage common decency. I’m PROUD of how I handle the Rollins debates on this site. It’s a dirty job, but somebody has to do it.

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            4. Larrym, I’d like to understand why its a crime of biblical proportions in your eyes to levy a “personal attack” on players who don’t even have a clue what’s being written about them on this site, but you find it appropriate, not to mention a part of your daily regimen, to personally attack, insult, demean, and criticize most of the posters on this site? You call people names like people take breaths, and these are people you’ve never met, never seen, never spoken to, etc. I’m actually shocked you continue to visit and post on this site, considering your view that most of us are near brain dead in your opinion. I can only dream of the day you take your anger and hatred somewhere else and let someone else deal with it.

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    2. I agree with your last sentence. Things probably will not go well at all for him next year in Reading, but there’s still a slim chance for a surprise I think.

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  7. alright new question… if Ruf goes to aaa and puts up 14 hrs in the first month, do the people who have yet to believe begin to believe?

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    1. I think everyone is confident Ruf’s offense translates dave, he doesn’t have anything to prove at AAA from an offensive perspective. I’m pretty sure if he was called up he’d average 8-12 Hr’s a month. The problem is where to put him and how to get him AB’s, if you go to the general post and look at my hopes for Ruf next year it’s him getting 230 AB’s playing 1 out of 7 games at 1B and pinch hitting. That would be a great try out for a guy no one, coming into the year, thought was anyone.

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      2. Pretty sure he’d avearge 8-12 HR a month? Woweee! That’s 40-60 for the year in AAA. He hasn’t even hit 40 this year in a friendlier park. I take your point, he very well might mash at AAA next year no matter. I have a feeling we’ll get the chance to find out.

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        1. If he hits 60 next year he’ll be a starter somewhere NL or AL. Unequivocally. But yes, I think I over-estimated my average (didn’t do the math and I think the run he’s on right now has my mind playing tricks on me… 20 in 28 days.), 35-40 is much more realistic. 🙂

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      3. so then why not have him play first to give ryan a break against lefties sometimes and play left field against lefties other times with pierre or whoever as a late game defensive replacement?

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        1. He’s probably going to get a decent look in spring training. Your/Our best hope at this point is he makes a miraculous jump in his fielding this off season. If I’m the Phillies, I drop 100k and get him some insane personal trainer to work with every day.

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      4. I disagree … he’s got plenty to prove in AAA. Overbeck and Rizzotti both had precipitous drops in OPS between Reading and LHV. It’s not as big a jump as the High A-AA transition, but there are plenty of older guys who know how to pitch in AAA.

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        2. There are plenty of secondary stats that tell me he’s not Overbeck or Rizzotti, but yes, I agree his first month up he won’t post 1+ OPS. There is some adjustment.

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      5. Don’t see the math on the ABs. Even at 5ABs a game and 25 games at 1B, both very generous numbers, it is only 125 ABs, Pinch hitters don’t get 100 ABs. Maybe you could add in some DH ABs, but realistically, without a position, he will be lucky to get 100 ABs in a season, unless there is an injury to Howard.

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        1. The other issue is that it can get difficult for a guy who is used to playing every day to put up the same numbers when he is starting once a week and pinch hitting. If he can only play 1B, I’d rather see him play every day at AAA and be ready if Howard were to suffer an injury.

          The focus at this point should be to have him play LF in the VWL and see if its an option or not. It may determine he’s ready defensively to play LF in the bigs, and if that’s the case, then spring training is his tryout. If he absolutely can’t, it might be that his trade value will never be higher than this off season and that might be more valuable to the Phils than having him as a 1B in AAA or a bench player in the bigs.

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    2. No one is a disbeliever in his power at this point. It’s his legs moving him in straight lines to places where he can catch baseballs, and his hands, well…catching them.

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  8. Stop it. Everyone knows he can hit. But where is he going to play? First? Ahead of Howard? Actually I say yes because I’m a sucker for a guy who knows the strike zone. But it won’t happen. LF ? Okay, but he needs to show he can play there. There are really no other issues. IMO.

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  9. AAA? Please 38-102-.321…that is sick, get him to the Bank and get him 100 Sep ABs!!!
    I don’t care what his LF D looks like, when was the last time
    someone did this for Phils in AA??

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    1. No one cares about defense in left field until routine fly balls begin to drop for hits. But I digress. Wrong thread, anyhow.

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      1. Of course the irony here is that the typical fan ONLY cares about the routine fly balls. So I can envision a situation where Ruf is on the roster, making all the routine plays, hitting some HR, but still not a full time regular, and the phones at WIP start ringing asking why he isn’t playing full time – not realizing that the fact that he has the range of a statue costs the team runs.

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          1. Phils have been letting it happen for 8 years with Howard at first. And don’t forget the slew of extra bases Pierre has given up this year without an arm in left.

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            1. They’ve also run the likes of Ross Gload, Greg Dobbs, Ty Wiggington, and Matt Stairs out there as well. (Not on an every day basis obviously).

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            2. I’m sorry, but Howard’s defense up to his injuries was not so bad that he constantly cost the phillies runs, or even led to runs. Cone again?

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  10. Ruf #2 on hot sheet! i was shocked he wasn’t just man among boys, but i guess after a while they ran out of excuses for not putting him on the hot sheet

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    1. As I stated earlier in the other thread, from the right up it appears that BA hasn’t greatly changed their prospect status on him, but they are acknowledging what an incredible month it has been for him

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  11. I can pretty much guarantee he will be a September call up. He will play 1st once a week, PH, maybe a start or three in left and then the last week and half to two weeks of the season look for him to be starting in left daily (with the exception of Howard off days). The phillies are done wasting time on this. The manager wants him and RAJ has been to an extraordinary amount of Reading games recently, every single time he’s been there Ruf has hit a bomb. Trust me there is no longer any debate about the man (except on here) he is getting his shot very shortly. Hitting like this is impossible to ignore. He will be in Philly in September, he will get a good shot at a serious role for next year in Spring training as well. He may never step foot in Lehigh.

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    1. It’s so good to have someone here with an inside knowledge of Philadelphia front office deliberations.

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      1. Have you ever seen someone in the minors with a .947 slugging percentage for an entire month? Do you honestly think The Phillies aren’t going to call him up? Heck do you think any team would just let that go? He has forced the issue. How many at bats have you seen Darin Ruf take exactly? Ive been there for 17 games this month,mIn my 20 years + of going to Reading Phillies games I have never seen anything like Ruf (and that includes Howard) it’s not just the homeruns, it’s his at bats, his patience, his domination of the zone, and the sheer distance of the homeruns. I’m there nightly I’ve witnessed it, Darin Ruf is truly epic. I know that RAJ, Montgomery and many others have been there, they’ve seen what I’ve seen. It’s impossible to ignore, however unlikely it was or is. It’s here Darin Ruf is the number one prospect for this orginization in the near term and purhaps longer, and again the only people debating it are people in an online forum that’s devoted to following Phillies prospects. This is not Overbeck, this is not Rizzotti, this is not Eric Valent and in a few ways as said before its not even Howard.

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        1. Oh, my god, you just gave me the biggest laugh I’ve had in weeks – seriously, you have really had me going over the past few weeks. Kudos on the most convincing, well played trolling attempt on this site in … well, ever. 🙂

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          1. Again how many at bats have you seen Ruf take this month?

            I’ve see him take 62 at bats this month, I saw 28 hits , 15 homeruns and 22 RBI’s

            That’s in the 17 games I’ve gone to this month, how can you not call it epic? Show me something similar, tell me how many at bats you’ve seen him take this month, or well just keep you mouth shut, I’m there and you are not. You’re looking at a stat line everyday, I’ve seen him work the counts murder the ball to every field at a pace that only the greats have done.

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            1. No one is arguing that it isn’t awesome, you are suffering from essentially scouting a box score in person, you are creating a narrative to match what you are seeing. Give us some reports on the bat, find us a physical comp on the swing path and bat speed, tells us how he uses his lower half to generate power, what kind of pitches his he hitting, where are those pitches located. Give us something we don’t know and not your confirmation bias.

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            3. Okay … look, at this point we’re so far apart on this that it is almost impossible to even have a productive conversation. What I’m going to say may sound harsh, and I know I can be a jerk sometimes, but there is no nice way to put this – there is nothing about anything that you have written that impels me to put any weight at all on your subjective evaluation of Ruf’s hitting in general and swing in particular. None at all. In fact, your expectations are so out of line with reality that I am more dismissive of your opinions than I would be of a random observer. Moreover, you’re not even providing us with the kind of observational detail that would matter, even if I DID trust your observations. You talk about his hits, his homes runs, his RBIs – I can get that from the box score.

              Now, there is nothing to be ashamed of there – the vast majority of baseball fans, even those watching 100s of games for many years – do not have the skills to evaluate prospects based upon observations alone. That is especially true for hitting. Defense is at the same time a little easier to evaluate subjectively (though even there most observers are too caught up in routine plays, or on the other extreme spectacular looking plays), and harder to evaluate from mere numbers. So I put more weight on subjective observations of defense (but again, not yours so much.)

              The only reports from people whose opinions I DO respect are … less positive than the raw numbers, not more.

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            6. Jeremy, I appreciate your accounts of what Ruf can do, notably your comments about his ability to work the count, use all fields, and hit for serious power (I.e. not just benefitting from Reading’s park).

              I would caution you to be a little more reserved in your estimation of what the Phillies will do. Just because the Phils’ FO was at the game does not mean they will call him up. For example, they might have seen him hit an HR but noticed that he was starting his bat early to do so. An evaluation such as that would not lead them to demand he be brought up. More simply, we don’t know what they’re thinking and it can be dangerous to assume that we do.

              I love what Ruf has done this month, it has been awesome. By all accounts he is a great guy and I hope he gets a call up to the majors. One thing to keep in mind is that this is just one month and is against guys who were either not good enough to get called up to AAA or just got called up from A+.

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        2. You are absolutely insane, you are not a professional scout, the professionals are seeing a slightly slow bat that can be exploited, they are seeing a guy who is likely 1B only. To even be considered a 1B prospect you need to put up the splits he is. Yes it is likely the greatest AA season of all time. In AA they aren’t scouting you for holes in your swing, they are too busy making their pitchers do things like establish fastball control or throw a certain number of breaking pitches each inning. Ruf is like a Top 20 prospect in the org right now and that is being kind. You are out of your mind and while I was enjoying first hand accounts I can see that you really cannot be trusted. And yes this is a prospect site therefore we are NOT excited about a minor leaguer purely by scouting their box score we are thinking about it more.

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          1. You know i’m with you on 95% of what you say, but I don’t buy that whole slow bat crap… 🙂 Sorry, nit picking I know but it’s a personal pet peve of mine. It’s one thing to say it about a prospect with no power, but just pure physics says his bat must travel quickly (specifically more quickly then other) for him to have generated home runs as he has been. That said, Jermey is bat $hit crazy.

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            1. I am just repeating reports, you don’t need bat speed to have power, it is one way. The other ways are to loft in your swing (Ruf has a slight upercut enough that you could see more flies and less grounders), pure strength there is the moment of contact where you can “muscle” the ball out and Ruf is pretty strong, leverage is also important as the bat is lever and depending on where in the swing path contact is made can determine how much power is translated from the bodies motion to the swing, and lastly making good contact on the right part of the bat which he is probably doing. The best example I can give is compare Utley and Howard on their swings, Utley has an extremely quick swing and Howard’s is long and loopy but he has a ton of leverage.

              Just some more swing analysis things to think about.

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            2. Here’s a great article about why his bat speed (and bat weight) are both incredibly important to his ability to hit home runs:

              http://www.acs.psu.edu/drussell/bats/batw8.html

              Essentially the forumla is as follows:

              m1v1b + m2v2b = m1v1a + m2v2a

              m1 = mass of ball (constant in all of baseball)
              v1b = velocity of ball prior to impact (it needs to be negitive)
              m2 = mass of bat (dependant upon strength of player)
              v2b = velocity of the piece of the bat that makes contact with the ball (dependant upon strength of player)

              Those are the only 4 inputs when determining how hard a ball is hit. Now, you are correct about how his slight upper cut swing causes the ball to travel further before making contact with the ground. But his upper cut, as evidenced by 38 videos this year, is nothing out of the ordinary for major league stars. The other thing that really comes into play is his ability to make solid contact. Hitting too close to your hands dramatically affects the velocity of the bat, and hitting towards the end dramatically affects the amount of weight applied against the ball.

              The bottom line though, if you read that whole article is, clearly Ruf is able to do one of 3 things that the rest of the eastern league is unable to do.

              1. Swing a camparitively heavy bat with average velocity
              2. Swing an average weighted bat with above average velocity
              3. Make quality contact at a rate never seen in the history of the league.

              Or, some combination of the above.

              I hope this helps explain how power is generated, at any level.

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            4. Very good and informative article. I computed the bat wt 5’8″ Dustin Pedroia should use, and I come up with a 30 oz. bat…..Ht/3+7.

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            5. Read the second article linked at the bottom, I just wrote out the same thing only to realize that they explained it better. The other thing that they don’t factor in is a change in the rotational axis. You change the moment of inertia by how extended your arms are, you can gain an advantage with full extension but you lose bat speed because of the path the bat head must travel (have someone swing a bat with these two method and just watch the speed of the bat head), on a short compact swing the bat head is brought through quicker but with a different moment of inertia.
              The difference for hitting is the quicker swing allows for better adjustment to a breaking pitch because you can wait longer for committing to the pitch.
              (BTW I just graduated with a degree in physics, this stuff is fun to think about and debate and this isn’t taking into account the force and acceleration being applied to the bat by a hitter)

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            6. I don’t have very strong feelings on whether this point is true, but, as I understand it, the issue isn’t supposed to be bat speed per se, but that he starts his swing early – which against major league pitching may be problematic because he is more likely to get fooled.

              As for the uppercut, he does hit a ton of fly balls, but for power guy that’s not really a problem. One interesting thing – not interesting good or interesting bad – while he leads the league in HR/OFB, he isn’t in front by a lot – his seasonable HR totals are a result of a high OFB% combined with a high HR/OFB, but neither number by itself is that exceptional. I’m not sure it tells us much in terms of expectations going forward, I just thought it was interesting.

              Another thing, and I understand all of the reasons why Ruf’s most extreme admirers will reject the relevant of this, but on a per PA or per AB basis, the immortal Tag Bozied, in 2010 almost matched Ruf’s performance (taking the season as a whole).

              Which reminds me, but for the knee injury in 2004 that, perhaps we WOULD be talking seriously about the immortal Tagg Bozied. Well, I exaggerate a little.

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            1. Jeremy, no offense, that’s a particularly stupid argument. Of course scouts are wrong sometimes, but (a) it’s not a reason to throw out what they say completely and (b) it’s not a reason to put more weight on the observations of an untrained observer (or raw stats unadjusted for context) over the observations of a trained observer. The simple fact is that, for a player of his age, the gap between the scout’s opinions and your opinions is so great that, if Ruf really met them – it would be … well, I wan tto say unprecedented in major league history, but that understates it. If Ruf is HALF as good as you think he is, it will be unprecedented in major league history.

              Galvis has a much better chance than Ruf – I would say infinitely better chance – to be star. And I think the chance that Galvis becomes a star is probably about 1 in 200 at best.

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        3. And on the “not even Ryan Howard.” First of all, this post doesn’t talk about plate discipline, but several posts lately – yours among them – contrast Ruf’s plate discipline favorably with Howard’s. Lifetime BB % in major leagues for Howard 12.1%. This season BB% for Ruf (above his career mark): 11.5% against pitchers who mostly will never pitch in inning in the major leagues.

          Comparing their AA years – and, keep in mind, that was not even Howard’s best minor league performance, AND he greatly exceeded expectations when he got to the majors and he was 1 1/2 years younger than Ruf, AND he didn’t have the doubts about his swing mechanics that Ruf has – was a little better than Ruf’s season this year. Not a lot better, and I realize it is that fact which people are clinging to right now, but really, at this point to put him ahead of Howard is beyond absurd.

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          1. There were a LOT of people who questioned Howards swing mechanics. Specifically saying that he had a big hole in his swing and predicting that he would strike out 200 times per year. Prediction was accurate.

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        4. ” It’s here Darin Ruf is the number one prospect for this orginization in the near term and purhaps longer”

          Are you kidding me?

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    2. This is the same manager that wants Juan Pierre back next year?

      I don’t doubt the one start a week at 1B (this is all after the Reading season ends) and 1-2 starts a week in LF. I suspect if he is in the OF he gets lifted for a replacement after the 6th-7th inning. He gets the starts because RAJ has stated they aren’t going to bring anyone up to spend the whole time on the bench. They want to know what they have here but a good shot a serious role is going really far, there is still plenty of debate out there on what is going on, it is becoming very likely he gets a call up but that is the extent of it. Not to say we are all special here, but there is a much more informed conversation occurring on this site in comparison to almost any other discussion of the Phillies.

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    3. But seriously, while I am not going to venture a guess as to what will happen next month, I am on record with what I think should happen next year – a reserve role, if he earns it, but no more than that. But let me ask you what I’ve asked more than once of his biggest boosters here – without getting a response – what do you expect from him next year if he gets his shot, specifically? I’ve made my best estimate, what’s yours? Give us a projection.

      The thing is there seem to be a couple around here who are seeing him as a potential star, not just a regular. One person -was it you? I don’t recall – said so explicitly, at least seeing him potentially as a “superstar.” I don’t see that, at all. I liked the Jason Kubel comparison – that’s if he gets a chance at a full time job, which he may not. Kubel is … a serviceable enough player, but not a “superstar.”

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      1. Just for those playing the comp game at home here are your right handed hitting 1B by WAR.
        Albert Pujols
        Paul Goldschmidt
        Allen Craig
        Paul Konerko
        Corey Hart
        Chris Carter
        Brandon Snyder
        Carlos Lee
        Hector Luna
        …
        Mark Reynolds
        … and the worse
        Ty Wigginton

        Choose your upside

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      2. I have never said he will be a superstar, but at this point I’m starting to think it’s possible. As for his role next year, starting LF, maybe platooning depending what the Phillies do in the off season. This guy is Pat the bat, with a much better bat. Thats my projection.

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        1. He is, at best as a hitter, bending WAY over backwards to be fair, and being optimistic about his upside, Burrell with half as many BB. Granted that will play better in the current lower run context than it would have 10 years ago.

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        2. But in fairness, I asked and you answered – sort of. Still kind of vague, and “better than” doesn’t tell me how much better than you expect.

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            1. Okay, that’s your prediction, fair enough. I say no way he does that, and even if he somehow did manage that, with poor defense and an absence of other skills would not make him a star. And at his age, he isn’t the kind of player that’s just going to keep getting better.

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        3. Pat Burrell OPS’d 1.068 at Reading as a 22-year-old. Ruf’s is 1.047. How the latter has a “much better bat” is beyond me.

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            1. So you’re saying that his hot streak during the past month is a better predictor of his future as a baseball player than his output during a full season? Or minor league career, for that matter? Granted, its an incredible streak he’s on, but it’s just that. A streak.

              I think Ruf has potential, and if he can play adequate LF might even have a chance at playing every day in the big leagues. But saying he has a far better bat than a player who hit nearly 300 HRs in the majors is a bit much.

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        1. If he was, it’s undeserved. Look at his career as a whole; it that’s a star, then we’ve watered down the term to the point where almost everyone is a star.

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      1. I think Ruf posts a .780 OPS, and I’m going with Batting him 6th instead of 7th, but they’re pretty interchangable to me. Remember just how bad this team is offensively. (only 2 players exceed .780, and 3 exceed .710)

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        1. I am accounting for a bat in either CF or 3B being acquired, so you could say…
          Rollins (don’t like him here but he is here to stay)
          Brown/CF/3B
          Utley
          Howard
          Ruiz
          CF/3B/Brown
          Ruf (who is playing LF in this exercise)
          CF/3B

          If they don’t acquire a bat he could bat 6th, it is just hard to argue a rookie hitter ahead of those guys

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          1. See, I think Rollins should bat after Ruf, figure the average short stop bats 7 or 8 depending on the catcher, in our case our catcher is our best overall hitter, so in this case, rollins should bat 7th or 8th. We also need a 3B, and since there is nothing good on the market, he’s gonna be a 7/8 hole hitter. The other possibility with Utley moving to 3rd is no help either, Galvis is definately an 8 hole hitter.

            Ideal world:

            1. CF (If they can get borne for a fair contract)
            2. Brown
            3. Utley
            4. Howard
            5. Ruiz,
            6. Ruf
            7. Rollins/3B
            8. Rollins/3B

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            3. Yeah, nothing like starting off with 4 Left Hand Hitters. Wonder if others will be able to counteract that enough to stop them from winning it all.

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  14. How serious of a prospect do the Phillies think Kelly Dugan is, you would think they would have pushed him up to Clearwater before the season ended

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    1. They would have had to do it back in late July for it to really have any effect might as well leave in the same line up with the same coaching

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  15. OK I’m willing to respond to LarryM with regard to what I expect from Ruf next year. I have no idea – how can I – how can anybody? All I know is, he is a “superstar” right now at the level he is playing. That’s all he can do right now. What will he do at the next level – I’ll know when you know. But until he actually fails, I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

    And for all the people who think that they can project failure before it actually happens, I cite one example to the contrary. There was once a player taken in the 62nd round of the amateur draft, the absolute last player chosen. He was only chosen as a favor to his father who was a personal friend of Tommy Lasorda. You may have heard of this player – Mike Piazza.

    The scouts are not always right.

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    1. With Piazza within a year or so of making it to the minors when scouts got a good look at him he was shooting up prospect rankings. Amateur scouting is a whole different game and is much more prone to error do to level of competition and physical maturing that can happen.

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    2. This was argued ad nauseum about a week ago. There are two inalienable truths. These are:
      Great players sometimes slip in the draft.
      Great players are typically recognized as legitimate prospects once they’ve played before scouts in the minor leagues.

      Let’s avoid rehashing this.

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    3. N ot that it has ever been documented that he used, but Piazza did come up in the PED era. A number of nondescript minor leaguers became mlb superstars during that period. (Jeff Bagwell anyone?)

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  16. From the BA hotsheet chat:

    Shyster Jeffrey (Tampa, FL): Besides his power, what else does Ruf bring to the table as a prospect?

    Ben Badler: Not much. It’s a pretty one dimensional profile and, gun to my head, he’s probably a good Triple-A hitter who gets a cup of coffee in the big leagues. But man do I hope I’m wrong on that one because what he’s doing right now is just ridiculously fun to follow.

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  17. Thanks,Lenny.I couldn’t have worded it better.With my posts in the last months,all I was asking for was that Ruf gets a chance at a higher level to see what he can do there.plus the excitement of what he was accomplishing currently.

    However too many other posts,had him branded,He’ll never be a good player,doesn’t stand a chance,etc. Talk about negative!!! Soon as someone was excited,negative posts poured in!!

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  18. Question: If we don’t trade Singleton, would Ruf been double jumped to LHV and do you think he would’ve had similar success?

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    1. If the Phils still had Singleton, I imagine they’d still be trying to play him in LF. Or maybe they’d have attempted to transition Ruf there earlier?

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    2. Ruf would be playing 1B and Singleton in LF. We would be too busy watching Singleton’s HR numbers (which would be higher in Reading than where he is now) to not be worried about Ruf as much. You have to think Ruf in LHV would have 5 less HR based on the park and probably another 5-10 less based on pitching (you got more guys who have tasted the majors and have better command and control) and what you are left with is a pretty good season but nothing close to this.

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  19. could we see this picture with phillies across the front in a few years? It is from Rufs record breaking home run with Gillies and Asche on either side scoring in front of him

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    2. Not an impossibility, if you replace on of the two with Brown I would be just as happy.

      Just looking at this smallest of sample sizes, one AB. The swing has a ton of loft (slight uppercut) not just what is accounting for the low ball, that just means he is going to hit more flyballs than groundballs, he uses his lower half well to generate the power, it isn’t a noisy swing (not a ton of moving parts) which is nice. I would like to see him deal with a major league breaking ball away or plus fastball up and in. It is a pretty looking swing though.

      For those who are attending Reading games, can you give reports on how he deals with certain pitches and what kind of swings is he putting on it, do all of his swings look like this mechanically or is he only getting them occasionally.

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        1. Thank you, at this point we have established he has power, what else can he do? I am almost as interested now at his failures, are they exploitable or can they be fixed.

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            1. That second one was the problem. That ball was hit too close to him for him not to catch it or at least keep it in front of him.

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            2. Even the first one he seemed to be moving back and forth a little more than you would like to see for a ball hit basically straight to him.

              Here’s the thing about his defense from what I see and hear: His upside is a sure handed guy with very poor range and a decent arm. For a major league left fielder, that’s below average. But right now he’s a sure handed guy with a decent arm and poor range who doesn’t have the experience to know where the ball is going or to run decent routes. I guess that’s why the prospect of him playing regularly in left field next year for the Phillies scares me so much. He likely IS a legitimate major league hitter, albeit at a lower level than some people think. But he’s a first baseman, not a left fielder.

              If Howard was injured, I’d definitely be comfortable giving Ruf a shot at first base. But left field would be too much of an adventure. Especially since the guys currently on the poster who could platoon are all plus defenders.

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  20. It will be interesting to see what happens next year – I don’t mean so much with Ruf, but with the fans. If Jeremy is at all typical, if Ruf doesn’t get a full time job next year in Philly – as he most likely won’t – can you imagine the extent to which the organization will be blasted around here?

    Another scenario would be Ruf getting a shot as a regular, hitting a good number of HR – say a 30 HR pace – but not doing much else besides hitting HR – poor defense, low BA, etc, bringing his overall value down to mediocre at best – and both “sides” of the debate around here claiming vindication.

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    1. If he doesn’t make the bigs next year and then struggles with the Iron Pigs jeremy is going to have one hell of a Ruf hangover.

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  21. BA hot sheet question … love this!

    Tom (Boston): Carlos Tocci just turned 17 last week and seems to be holding his own. Is there any power potential there?

    Ben Badler: It’s one of the most divisive questions among scouts who see him. Some scouts think the body screams projection because of how skinny he is, other guys think the way he’s built (light frame, narrow shoulders) that he’s not going to add much weight. Nobody knows, and the Phillies may be banking on it, but even they would admit they don’t know what to expect from his future power. But when you have a guy who can hit close to .300 in the GCL at 16(!), shows you a good swing path, a good approach at the plate, great baseball instincts for his age and the ability to play the heck out of center field already, there’s a lot of ingredients to like.

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    1. I hope they push him to LKW. Even if he doesn’t develop a ton of power he is the type of player to dream on their potential.

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  22. I’m going to break down for everyone how Darin Ruf is doing what he is doing and why this not a “streak” but is in fact the new normal for him.

    When did this streak begin? A- at the beginning of August

    What happened at the end of July that changed the make up the Reading Phillies? A- Trades, specifically in this case Tommy Joseph walked across “the diamond” from the home dug out to the away dugout

    What did Tommy Joseph bring with him? A- His equipment (sepcifically his bats)

    What does this have to do with anything? A- Darin Ruf picked up one of Tommy Joseph’s bats and liked the feel of it

    What happened next? A- Darin Ruf began hitting homeruns at a feverish pace

    Is it a lucky bat? A- no it broke, he used more of Tommy’s until he could have them made for him

    Did he have more made? A- yes he did, him and tommy took a long road trip last week so Darin could have a supply of these bats.

    So Darin Ruf 2012 Apr-Jul having a fine albeit average season, Aug 2012 epic month

    What changed? A- his bat

    Is this really important ? A- yes it is, mass of the bat is an integral part of te equation for bat speed

    All things being equal the easiest solution is usually the correct one. Look at this scenario and decide. Is this really just a “streak” or is this the new normal, based on one very significant change in the important part of how homeruns can be hit by a player?

    When something changes, there is usually a reason behind it. This is the reason for Darin Ruf

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    1. I am going to respond to this rationally. I agree that Ruf has adjusted to a new level of performance (we will get to what it is in a minute), I am guessing the bat change allowed his swing to work better mechanically, it can’t be just bat weight and feel to start something like this, it has to mechanical change. Baseball is a game of adjustments and the reason why this streak while incredible is less telling then if he did this over a year and why it isn’t a new level is that there haven’t been any adjustments made against him yet. The only thing pitchers have done is just not pitch to him, they will find a flaw in him and they will exploit it (this isn’t pessimistic this is baseball), if he is great he will adapt and force them to change, if he does not, he will fail. He cannot sustain this, but we won’t know what he is until adjustments are made against him, this will happen at the majors and is why I favor bringing him up when I didn’t before. His age and athleticism are hindrances here, it will be harder for him to adjust, just look everyone’s favorite whipping boy Ryan Howard. Ruf is worse than he is showing right now, the question is how much?

      There is only one player I have not seen struggle yet at the major league level and that is Mike Trout and you have to figure it is only a matter of time till they figure out how to get him out and then he will have to adjust.

      Again, not arguing something has changed with Ruf (likely his swing) to make us reexamine him, but this isn’t his new level, it is something less than this, but higher than what he was before.

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    2. Jeremy, I’m the last person that you’re going to listen to on this, but really, if you honestly believe that the bat made that much of a difference, and really believe that this is the “new normal” you’re living in a fantasy land. You’re destroying your own credibility.

      Oh, and as for “When something changes, there is usually a reason behind it,” put that way it is a syllogism. But, in the real world, apparent changes are often partly or entirely a result of randomness – a point 99.9% of the human race has a difficult time grasping. Is Ruf’s streak entirely that? Maybe not. Probably not. It is certainly partly that. But I’ll tell you what, assuming that something “real” is going on, then it most likely isn’t primarily about the bat.

      Correlation does not equal causation.

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  23. BA chat Ruf Question:

    Tom (Boston): Thanks for chatting with us, Ben. Does Darin Ruf have the chance to play an acceptable LF in the majors? He reminds me a little of Brian Daubach.

    Ben Badler: They’re going to try playing him out there in winter ball, but it’s a 20 run tool. I don’t think it’s going to be pretty, but it’s worth a shot.

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  24. Tom (Boston): Thanks for chatting with us, Ben. Does Darin Ruf have the chance to play an acceptable LF in the majors? He reminds me a little of Brian Daubach.

    Ben Badler: They’re going to try playing him out there in winter ball, but it’s a 20 run tool. I don’t think it’s going to be pretty, but it’s worth a shot.

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  25. So if all the “experts” (and I don’t claim to be one but I find it interesting how many commenters on this site seem to think they can project the career every Phil’s minor-leaguer with a year or two’s worth of stats…what? Players can’t get better or worse? Sometimes it takes a little while for people to figure things out…) seem to think that Ruf will never be able to play OF at an adequate enough level in the majors and the Dodgers aren’t stupid enough to trade for Howard and play him at 2B, the obvious solution would seem to find a comparable prospect in another system – an AL team most likely – and swap them. Surely an AL team could use a DH who can rake (I’m also amazed at how under appreciated a guy is who “projects” to hit 25-30 bombs is. This isn’t 1995-2005. As I type this there are only about 25 guys with 25+ HRs in the majors). Why not try to find an AL club who has a prospect blocked by someone in the majors but who could use some power in their system and swap? Rufs perceived value will never be higher, whether or not his actual value will be.

    What prospect could Ruf bring in return one-for-one right now?

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    2. Ruf wouldn’t get you much of anything at all at this point. That may not be a “fair” evaluation of his talent, but what you have to realize is that even the “pessimists” on this site are more wildly optimistic about Ruf than the scouting consensus. Ruf gets you maybe a “C” level prospect – the kind of guy who, IF things break right, is a middle reliever or bench player in the majors.

      I’m not saying that’s fair, even I value Ruf more highly, but that’s the reality. If, against all odds, he really does take off next year in AAA just where he left off, then after a month or two of that … maybe you get a “B” level prospect for him.

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      1. Too bad Ed Wade’s not still with Houston. D’oh!
        If there are too many “unknowns”….if all he fetches is a “C” prospect, then his value is definitely highest in the Phillies system. I look forward to seeing him mash next year in AAA and in the majors.

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    3. To get full value for him, he needs to come up and continue on this pace and then do it all spring training and then you either get someone in Low A with a ton of bust potential or a middle relief/ #5 starter prospect.

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    4. Can we clear up this one point teams don’t trade for minor league future career DHs. Most successful DHs are professional hitters at the ML level who for some reason or another can not sustain an adequate level of fielding. I am not Saying Ruf can not become a successful DH just saying that teams don’t trade for unproven hitters to fill that role.

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  27. Good for Ruf! The Phils are at the very least, obligated to check to see if this is for real. Very exciting 2nd half of the season for some guys: specifically Ruf, Gillies, Asche, Franco, and Biddle. After a 1st half where position players scuffled except a few of the rookie level guys, the above group has really grown. The system takes some momentum into the offseason.

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      1. That is where the doubt is, I didn’t see the hit but given the fact that he hit the ball that far shows his minus-minus speed

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  29. Well Brody Colvin I don’t think there is a prospect that deserves to fall further than you in our system. Just brutal. Maybe he’ll turn into something decent in the bullpen.

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  31. Nice to see Joseph hit a couple bombs over the last few days. If he can get hot as the season winds down and can take that into the AFL, it’d be real encouraging going forward.

    2014 could be a fun year with guys like him, Asche, May, Biddle, etc.

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  33. Brody’s line 3.1 IP 6 hits 9 runs all earned 4 walks no strikeouts ERA 11.02

    Colvin AA career = epic trail wreck 

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    1. Should have let him finish up in Clearwater. Now he’s basically lost all value. He didn’t show he was ready for the jump.

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        1. Poor strikeout rate. Guessing it’s an experienced pitcher taking advantage of less experienced competition. With the lack of velocity (from scouting reports) and his Low K rate, he will be a prove it every year type.

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  36. Kyle Simon with a great line. 2.2 5k’s with a hit and a walk mixed in. Kudos to Ruben Amaro Jr on the Jim Thome trade.

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  37. How about the performance over the course of this season by Franco in Lakewood? Average is up to .275 now and probably over .300 since his slow start. For his age, I’m guessing he is putting up some pretty impressive numbers.

    And how about Milner – don’t know much about him but he seems to be compiling some strong numbers – is he a legit prospect?

    Finally, and maybe not the best spot for this, but I wonder if the Phils would call up C Hernandez in September and play him some at 2B and Utley some at 3B? I’m guessing if he did get called up he might play once a week at 2B but I think Utley at 3B this year is unlikely, if ever. However, the talk in the other thread about if you put Utley at 3B and Galvis at 2B, what do you accomplish, why not just put Galvis at 3B – I wonder if the Phils feel that a better option would be Utley at 3B with Cesar at 2B and Galvis as a utility infielder. Thoughts?

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    1. I agree that Utley should stay at second if the thought is to use Hernandez and Galvis. Galvis should never play third. Hernandez needs more time at AAA. He doesn’t do well when promoted aaggressively. My thought is they need a free agent third baseman, right fielder and center fielder to have any thoughts of competing for the playoffs in 2013. The farm is not ready to answer the call.

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    2. 89-90 in the first 3 innings, but he has some deception and life with decent secondary stuff. He’ll be a good minor league starter, but he doesn’t have a build to put on much size- I’d think at the big league level he probably projects better as a reliver

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        1. Thanks for that – I asked abover before I read down this far. If he’s sitting 90 as a starter, that sounds better than where he was at Texas. Good sign.

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  39. Two more hits for Franco. His August has been ridiculous.

    If he is in Reading 6 years from now, he could be another Darin Ruf.

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  40. Don’t know how I missd this in my video archives, Darin Ruf In LF on an OF assist. Maybe this will ease people’s minds a bit. Like I said the arm is good.

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  41. Milner and Simon are among the late season entries for noticing

    Milner is a rail-thin guy: 6’2″ 160 lbs…but a lefty, which is a step ahead automatically. Maybe they can send him to The Cristie New Jersey Winter Camp for Underweight Boys. And to some sort of feeding spa. His numbers indicate something there if he doesn’t get blown off the mound by a strong summer breeze.

    Simon looks like a reliever in the bigs soon. Very fine pick-up by the FO in conference with their scouts. (Our scouts never get enough credit. They seem to be extraordinary…certainly since 2008)) Simon has a leg up on reaching that role with his time in the AFL.

    Add in DeFratus and there might be relief relief in ’13. Johnson seems like a filler for the AFL…!?

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  42. Aumont handling his promotion well so far. 4 innings pitched, 4Ks, 0 runs. Maybe he likes the taste of major league. Even if he gets sent down next year…I think this really helps him want it more going forward.

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  43. Bradindc

    I attended three Lakewood games while on vacation in early July. I recorded the velocity on all of the pitchers and intended to post them on the blog when I got back from vacation. However, I put it off and then forgot about it. I still have those all those notes. I will post Hoby Milner velocity for that game latter in this post.

    The three starting pitchers for Lakewood that I saw were all skinny left-handers. They were Ethan Steward, Lino Martinez and Hoby Milner. Ethan Steward was skinny but he was by far the tallest, Hoby Milner was skinnier and Lino Martinez was the skinniest.

    Ethan Steward was the most impressive velocity wise as he consistently pitched in the low to mid-90’s touching 96 on 2 or 3 pitches. Hoby Milner was the next hardest thrower as he touched 90 in the 1st inning a few times but consistently reached 86-88 mph on his fastball for the remainder of the game. Lino Martinez was the softest tosser as his fastest pitch only reached 88 mph and was consistently at 84-86 mph on his fastball. Among the relief pitchers Gabriel Arias consistently threw 94-95 and touched 96 on several pitches. Kenny Giles pitched in two games and consistently threw at 95-96 mph and reached 97 on several pitches each game.

    Here is Milner velocity for the pitches he threw on 7/12/12

    Guide to reading:
    cs – called strike, ss – swinging strike, b – ball, f – foul

    1st Inning
    1st batter – 89 cs, 90 f, 85 b, 90 — pop up to short stop
    2nd batter – 90 b, 88 b, 88 cs, 87 f, 90 b, 90 f, 89 f, 89 b — walk then caught stealing
    3rd batter – 88 f, 78 b, 89 — fly out to cf

    2nd Inning
    1st batter – 88 — pop up to short stop
    2nd batter – 88 cs, 85 b, 89 f, 78 — ground out short stop to 1b
    3rd batter – 88 cs, 85 ss, 88 — fly out to rf

    3rd Inning
    1st batter – 89 cs, 84 ss, 78 b, 89 b, 88 ss — strike out
    2nd batter – 88 b, 88 b, 88 — ground out short stop to 1b
    3rd batter – 88 ss, 88 cs, 84 b, 88 — ground out short stop to 1b

    4th Inning
    1st batter – 87 cs, 82 cs, 89 b, 78 — ground out to 1b
    2nd batter – 88 b, 88 b, 89 — Double to lf
    3rd batter – 88 cs, 83 f, 79 b, 88 b, 88 b, 88 — ground out to 1b
    4th batter – 87 f, 83 — fly out to lf

    5th Inning
    1st batter – 83 b, 88 cs, 84 — pop up to short stop
    2nd batter – 87 ss, 88 cs, 87 fly out cf
    3rd batter – 86 b, 88 b, 87 f, 83 ss, 84 b, 88 b — walk
    4th batter – 86 ss, 81 f, 87 cs — strike out

    6th Inning
    1st batter – 89 — single
    2nd batter – 87 f, 82 b, 86 f, 76 b, 87 cs — strike out
    3rd batter – 86 b, 87 b, 88 b, 87 b — walk
    Removed for new pitcher

    As to what secondary pitches he threw, the radio announcer called a couple of pitches curveballs and a couple of pitches change-ups.

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