Box Score Recap 8-23-2012

Box Score Recap

So much going on that I don’t really know where to aim my focus.  So I will just say names:

Jesse Biddle, Darin Ruf, Cody Ashce, Maikel Franco, Tyler Cloyd, Kelly Dugan, Justin Friend.  As Tyson Gillies would say on Twitter, “Weew”.  I think that’s Canadian for “Woo”.

LV  REA  CLR  LKW  WIL  GCL1  GCL2  DSL 

134 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 8-23-2012”

  2. I think we are looking at the next wave from Hamels, Rollins, Utley, Howard, Ruiz in the early
    naughts to Gillies, Asche, Franco, Joesph, Biddle, Morgan in the mid teens…

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      1. Not sure if you are serious, or just being funny, I strongly suspect (and hope for your sake) the latter, but on the pitching side, none of those guys (your names plus anons) have Hamel’s upside; on the hitting side, none of those guys, with the possible exception of Franco and that’s a long shot, have anywhere close to the upside of Rollins, Utley and Howard.

        If the 12 prospects listed by you and anon end up having 1/2 the aggregate career value of the 5 established players listed by anon, the Phillies will be very lucky.

        If we’re looking at the next group of possible star level Phillies to come out of their system, we’re looking at the short season teams, except for Franco, and perhaps Biddle, though not at the level of a Hamels. Okay, and maybe, maybe Joseph, but he’s a real long shot.

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        1. In terms of ceilings, they don’t get much higher than Quinn’s is at the moment. Sure, guys like Asche, Franco, Joseph, and Gillies aren’t going to be perennial all stars (Joseph might be, however), but that’s not what we’re looking for right now. We’re looking to rebuild the roster from within. Utley, Howard, Rollins, and Brown will be around for years still. What we need is to consistently fill the other roster spots with above-average major league talents. IMO, Asche, Franco, Joseph, and Gillies certainly qualify as such. Biddle is a #2 in my mind, Morgan projects to be a very solid 3/4 guy, and we could do much worse than Pettibone/Wright/Martin as #4/5 guys (see: Kyle Kendrick). If you want to look at possible “stars” in our system, look no further than Roman Quinn, Dylan Cozens, and Mitch Walding (stats don’t back it up, but scout rave about him). I’m also pretty high on Dugan and like was mentioned earlier, Duran could provide some nice depth in the future.

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          1. That’s a fair summary, if pehaps a shade on the optimistic side, unlike the wildly overblown assessments of anon and Del.

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            1. “pehaps” Please use it in a sentence.(other than one above) All kidding aside I like your new word. All we need now is a great meaning. Let’s poll the neighborhood.

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          2. I think the high ceiling award would go to Tocci, followed closely by Quinn. Of course his floor may be lower as well.

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          3. No mention of Larry Greene Jr.? He’s got the most raw power in the system. I understand you like Dylan Cozens but I got to think LGJ should be in that conversation as well.

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        2. Much of the post was optimistic HOMERISM ………… BUT—Show me the great disparity in Asches minor league numbers and Chase Utleys numbers… Utley a little more power, but in only one full season did he hit .300 in minors…

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          1. How about this number:
            Utley–15
            Asche–151

            That’s where they were picked in their respective drafts. Believe it or not, scouts are paid for a reason. If you could tell how good a minor leaguer was based on his performance alone, scouts wouldn’t exist. But they do. What does that tell you?

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            1. It tells me a LOT OF SCOUTS get it wrong…. as many players as they HIT on , they miss on a whole lot…. BTW— it doesnt matter where youre are picked , its HOW you perform…

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            2. Where you were picked is a good indication (not only but a decent one) of upside and raw tools. Performance in the minors can only tell you so much about the player’s skill level, it is much easier to crush the guys in AA throwing 88-91 than trying to catch up to a Strasburg 99 MPH fastball or even think about telling Chapmans 103 heater from his 91 MPH slider. It is a different game and not all skills translate, a split second late and it is a pop up and not a liner into the gap, and there is a limit on how much you can teach that.

              The thing when it comes to the draft and amateur scouting is that you are also tying skills to predicting how a 18 or 21 year old will mature physically and mentally. Think of when you were that age and trying to make decisions, these guys are humans a simple event can destroy confidence and could prevent a pitcher from ever really throwing strikes (see Colvin, Brody)

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            3. You know, we keep hearing about all these instances where the scouts get it wrong. You can certainly point to MANY instances where the scouts project success, and the player fails. That’s the nature of player development, most players fail. But the converse is rare – not that it never happens, but it is rare. Looking at lower round picks, and the relatively few successes are usually players who dropped for signability reasons. Asche of course was a 4th round pick – reasonably high, but the success rate of a 4th round pick is much lower than the success rate of a 1st round pick. Howard of course was a 5th round pick, but the point many fans don’t seem to realize is that his success as a 5th round pick was highly unusual.

              Now don’t get me wrong – a successful major league career for Asche is quite possible. But in terms of his chance at stardom, a 4th round pick is simply much less likely to become a star than a first round lick. Look at where the currently best players in baseball were drafted if you don’t believe me. And his performance, impressive in many ways as it is, is more consistent with a guy who will be an average major league player than a star. He has no real plus skills at this point. If Asche’s current numbers screamed “star” we wouldn’t discount his chance of becoming one because he was a 4th round pick. But they don’t. His most impressive stat is batting average, and, for a minor league player, that is simply not meaningfully predictive of major league success, especially given he’s done it for less than one year.

              Again, I’ll ask as I have asked before without getting responses. Where are all these successful major league players who the scouts hated?

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            4. Can’t find any scouts “hated” but ones that they didn’t like too much who have gone beyond expectations, even still a hard list to make:
              Mark Trumbo (still #9 on Angel’s list in 2011)
              Ben Zobrist (scouts thought he was a nice little player but not top prospect)
              Martin Prado (was back end of a load ATL system)
              Chris Capuano

              It isn’t a long list

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            6. You can point to late round guys but find one from the late rounds who wasn’t loved by the scouts before he made the bigs.

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            7. They werent liked well enough to be drafted high, according to some , being drafted high is important because it showed something…. THe stories keep changing…

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            8. Del,

              The stories don’t change. I think you need to re-read the comment in this thread. No one is saying scouts are perfect. Recall how this started: your Utley comparison. It was pointed out that the fact that Utley was drafted much higher MATTERED. It does. Look at the “star” position players in the league now; first round draft picks are an absolute majority, many of the other players are players who didn’t go through the draft. Very few are lower than second round picks.

              Now, IF Asche had been putting up numbers suggestive of a player who looked like a future star, then the fact that he was a 4th round pick wouldn’t matter. But he hasn’t. YOUR argument is that the fact that he has been putting up arguably similar minor league numbers to a guy like Utley (not really, but set that aside) somehow makes him a potential star. THAT argument makes no sense, for the many reasons set forth at length above.

              Somebody made a Chris Johnson comp for Asche yesterday. I don’t know if I would make that comp, hopefully Asche will be better defensively, but Johnson’s AA season was BETTER than Asche’s. Granted he was a year older than Asche, and that matters, but if you are looking for a minor league comp, Johnson is a far better match than Utley.

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            9. I think these responses are pretty much proving my point. None of these guys were “hated.” They all out performed their expectations somewhat – it happens – but the fact that the list is so short, the draft slots were mostly pretty high, and the minor league performance of most of these guys quite, quite impressive, to an extent much greater than Asche’s – proves my point rather than the opposite.

              Pujols, for example … no idea why he dropped to round 13, but his numbers in his one minor league season were absurd, and he ended that year ranked 46 among minor league prospects, hardly hated by the scouts.

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            10. I think its also fair to say that top picks, because of the investment in them, are coddled or fast-tracked or given the benefit of the doubt or whatever you want to say. Obviously they have talent if all the scouts agree on their relative value. But that simply does not take away from the fact that it is easy to point at a 14th round pick and dismiss him as “a nice player”. IMO that 14th round pick has a lot of work to do to prove the scouts wrong. And if he does it I am more impressed than the success of a top pick. Give me the underdog any day of the week.

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            11. Anon,

              I think that’s true, but given finite resources and opportunities, it is absolutely the correct approach. You may find your underdog approach more aesthetically pleasing, and sure some of those underdogs would succeed, but if your goal is to build a winning major league team, giving priority to the top picks (while not entirely ignoring the lower picks) is absolutely the optimum strategy.

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            14. I agree with Larry M’s general point about early draft picks vs. late round picks.

              Just to point out that in a different way, the Phillies great run from 2007 thru 2011 was accomplished with blue chip talent. A core of Top 50 picks in the draft surrounded by guys who mostly were drafted before 150. Even most of the key players acquired by Gillick or RAJ were former 1st round picks (Lidge, Blanton, Werth, Halladay, etc).

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            16. Brien Taylor’s career ended due to injury, and Piazza was BA’s No. 38 prospect in 1993. There seem to be two arguments going on here. One is that great players slip in the draft. The other is that there are few if any star players who were dismissed by scouts who watched them play minor league ball. Can we all agree that both of these statements are accurate and call it a day?

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            17. Mike, that’s true enough, but what’s frustrating here – and again, I suspect we’re getting trolled – is that even the “where wee they drafted” point is getting distorted. No one says that great players never slip, but the percentages are vastly in the favor of the higher picks.

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            18. My rule of thumb is when I see a thread get down to the “one third of a column on my screen” size, it means yes, somebody is getting trolled.

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            19. ‘…when I see a thread get down to the “one third of a column on my screen” size, it means yes, somebody is getting trolled’ —- ‘squeezed trolled’

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            20. More particularly, if I was so inclined, I could come up with literally thousands of comparisons going the other way. The fact that occasionally you can find a diamond in a pile of crap doesn’t mean that you should shut down the diamond mines and have the miners start looking for diamonds in the sewers.

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            21. Sounds like a good argument going on here. But I think it has gone awry. I believe the original spirit was that if you see a diamond in the sewer on the way to your mine … for heavens sake, pick it up !! It’s still a diamond.

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            22. Well fair enough, but to extend the analogy, Asche is more like a cubic zerconia, or, to be fair, maybe an opal; you still pick it up, but you don’t call it a diamond, and you keep digging for the diamonds.

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            23. So not fair. You are making a judgement, not an argument there. A cubic zirconium is worthless. Bad analogy.

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          2. and show me the great (i said great) disparity in Ruf’s numbers and Howards … and don’t forget the massive difference between errors and strikeouts 🙂

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          3. Utley’s minor league numbers, overall, were significantly better. I’ve wasted too much time already this morning to do a detailed comparison. Also I agree with Rich’s point above as well. Oh, and minor league batting averages mean basically zero.

            But on a more fundamental level, the basic underlying error is that, if you use Utley’s minor league statistics as the standard, there are scores of future superstars in the minors every year. While Utley’s minor league numbers were good, and he was, rightly, regarded as an excellent prospect because of those numbers PLUS the scouting reports, Utley is unique – unique, not just unusual – in the extent to which his major league performance exceeded his minor league performance.

            Add to that the fact that even those players who produce genuinely impressive minor league numbers rarely, very rarely, become stars of the level of an Utley … well, you see where I am going with this. Asche is not a top 100 prospect, but even if he was a top 10 prospect, projecting an Utley level of success would be a wildly optimistic stretch.

            Asche is a good prospect. The chance that he will put together the kind of career that Utley has is zero. The chances that he produces 1/2 the value that Utley has over the course of his career is probably less than 1%.

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            2. Comparing minor league numbers, not MLB career projections…

              The pessimistic attitudes are as bad as the optimistic one s…

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            3. A pessimistic attitude would be buying the Keith Law line on Asche. The irony here is that my take on Asche (as with most of the team’s prospects) is probably mildly over optimistic. Which I’m okay about. Gillies is another example – the fact that, at this stage of his minor league career, I’m giving saying he could develop into a major league regular at some point, though not 2013 – is significantly more optimistic than the consensus. Not many people outside of this web site give Gillies any significant chance of being a major league regular.

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            4. I believe the OP on this thread was trying to say we are getting ready to see the NEXT WAVE of Homegrown players make some impact in the next couple seasons like the system did about 8-10 years ago… He wasnt saying “Look at all these future HOFs and league MVPs….” To compare anyone to a League MVP or WS MVP is asinine at this stage of thier career, its also asinine to say that any said prospect that is Killing it right now will NEVER do anything in their career…..

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            5. Sorry, unlike you I lack the ability to read the minds of the commenters around here. I respond to what is written, as opposed to what I imagine the commenters ‘really” meant to say. Which, IMO, is actually showing respect to the person making the post. Saying “well, I guess i agree with what you must really meant to say” would be kind of condescending.

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            7. And no one around here is saying that any player currently “killing it” is “never” going to do anything in their career. With two arguably exceptions: Ruf (age issues plus lack of major league position) and Cloyd (age plus the fact that he isn’t really “killing it” – he not pitched nearly as well as his ERA). And even there, most of us are saying they will “never” do anything … both are still long shots to have much major league success, but both may get a shot at some point.

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            8. And my point is that is YOU that are using the minor league comparison to make major league projections, which is just plain silly in this instance.

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  3. Guys, Roman Quinn is killing it right now. I’m very surprised he wasn’t mentioned in the post. He’s now got a .382 wOBA (largely the result of a very healthy .371 OBP). Given his speed, that’s a very appetizing stat line to dream on.

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    1. Quinn is doing that while learning to hit from the left side and learning to play SS. Unbelievably talented.

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      1. I haven’t read anything too recently on the defense (has anyone else?), but early on nobody seemed to have any concerns about his ability to play the position long-term. What a steal if he sticks at SS and can maintain that stat-line as he advances.

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        1. He has a ton of erros, but a few have commented that many were throwing errors and balls that most SSs wouldn’t have gotten to. He has a ways to go, but it seems like these are correctable issues. As Nik says, he is just learning to hit form the left and is still in his first year of pro ball. Pretty sure rollins and utley had tons of errors in their first seasons. Fielding issues are not uncommon for 19 year-old infielders. The fact that he has the speed for CF, another premum position, provides another option if he ends up not hacking it at SS. Lots to like about this kid.

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        2. There are definitely concerns about his ability to stick at SS … his fielding percentage is .898, meaning he’s somehow booting one in 10 chances. That said, I don’t think anybody’s panicking at this point, since he is so new to the position and there is a steep learning curve. With how well his bat has been progressing despite learning the position, I think they’ll give him every opportunity to learn the position.

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          1. I remember early on of Quinn they said he can easily move to CF if needed. Arm strength is there hands are a bit hard at the moment.

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            1. I’m aware of this. But you can’t say that there are no concerns about his ability to stick long-term at SS.

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    1. Once again, I fail to see the extreme uppercut swing the national guys are referring to with Ruf. Looks pretty smooth to me.

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      1. I don’t see it either. I think it’s just a product of us being internet message board posters, not professional scouts… our eyes are genetically incappable of seeing the truth, what appears to be a level plane is actually a reverse tomahawk, and he’s cheating by pausing time using his “god skill” the moment before the ball impacts his bat to get his extremely slow bat-speed up.

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      2. I actually saw it quite pronounced, watch the follow through it ends up way up. Also the bat speed does seem a little slow, but this small sample size judgments. Here are the last three HR by Phillies. Just wanted to give some side by side comparisons
        Brown: http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=24131403&topic_id=8877956&c_id=phi
        Mayberry: http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=24067339&topic_id=8877956&c_id=phi
        Howard: http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=24064205&topic_id=8877956&c_id=phi

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    2. There is an uppercut in his swing, it’s not a Ken Griffey Jr. Uppercut that’s obvious or even a Ryan Howard uppercut it’s just a slight one that does cut down the time his bat stays level with the baseball. I’m not a scout but I can see the uppercut slightly as a guy that has watched a lot of baseball and has worked in baseball.

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      1. It was an “extreme uppercut” I was referring to. It has been alleged that it is so pronounced that it will be a detriment against big league pitching.

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  5. Will somebody tell me why Cholly needs to play Polanco at all. I thought this was the time of year to see what the Phillies have or have not. Let Frandsen play. I realize 3rd base if suppose to be a power position, but where was the power with Polanco, Pedro Feliz?? Frandsen is a guy who makes things happen. Keep him at 3rd, save the money and wait for Asche. The only thing I can think is they are showcasing Polanco before the 31st wavier deadline.

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  6. Exciting day down on the farm. Biddle is looking like he’s ready for AA next year, solidifying his spot as our top prospect overall.

    Franco continues to make waves as does Asche, the the two are locked in a battle for best 3B prospect (and perhaps best position prospect).

    Joesph meanwhile continues to struggle at AA, hopefully he can do something before the end of the year to prove he belongs in our top 5 from a performance perspective. Based on scouts alone he’ll probably end up there regardless of if he goes 0fer the rest of the way.

    Ruf continues to just maul the eastern league, I figure he finishes the year at his current pace with a Slg over .600 and approaches Ryan Howards HR record at Reading… not sure what that says about him as a prospect, but this is his “age 25” season, as far as I’m concerned there’s no value to calling him up to AAA at this point, either the phillies are going to give him a shot next year, and he’ll be protected on the 40 man, or they won’t and he’ll be left off it. (and may or may not be picked up by another team). I hope to god he shows up in spring having lost 15 lbs with 8% body fat. 🙂

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    1. I’ll say it again … it makes a lot of sense to call Ruf up in September and see how he handles big league pitching. If he shows promise, protect him. If he tanks, don’t. It certainly makes the roster decision easier, and a poor performance could also give other teams caution about claiming him and keeping him in the bigs for a year.

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      1. The problem with bringing him up is you give him the 40 man spot, to “not protect him” you have to DFA him which means a team just needs a 40 man spot and he still has 3 options, as opposed to Rule V where someone has to carry him on the bench all year.

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        2. You shouldn’t have to DFA him with options left. Hell they could option him back before the end of the year. I am not sure of the procedure but it does not seem correct to me given the intent of these rules.

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      2. Don’t you have to put the 40 man just to call him up? Then if you took him off, he would go through waivers even before he got to the Rule-5 draft. (I could be wrong)

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        1. oops, right, what he said. did I really take 8 minutes to compose a two line post that wasn’t even very well constructed?

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      1. College guys get one less year. Or technically, anyone over 19 I think. Someone check me on that if I am wrong.

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  7. Didn’t balco recently come out saying more then 50% of mlb players are juicing… honestly at this point, who cares, they’re testing players as often as they can and everyone gets the benefit of the doubt before it can be proven. I worry more about 32 year olds who’ve been in the majors for 6 years going from 17 to 33 then I do guys in their mid-20’s playing in the minors.

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          1. Ill fitting suits are the first thing you think about from prom? I don’t know what country you grew up in but my prom all I remember is hot girls…

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  9. . . . says the anonymous poster.

    But yeah, I came over to point this out. Really looking forward to the Gueller/Watson show in Lakewood next year. High-ceiling high school arms FTW.

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    1. Sorry, changed internet browser to chrome at work and didn’t realize it didn’t have my info saved!

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  10. It would be great to see him finish the season on a strong note. Looking forward to see what he can do after an offseason of instruction.

    BTW, I’m sure you simply forgot to plug your handle in when posting this. Otherwise, the irony is too great 🙂

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  11. So Darin Ruf has 11 games left. Where is he gonna end up? Decided to put my math hat on…

    He has had 449 AB’s over the course of 128 games, that’s 3.5 AB’s a game. With 11 games left he will have 38 or so AB’s. His home run rate for the season is 1 HR for every 13.6 AB’s, but obviously things have been vastly different as of late. In the month of August that HR rate has jumped to 1 HR every 5.93 AB’s. Even if that rate is impossible for him to maintain Even since the all star break the HR rate is  1/ 8.38 AB’s 

    So based on this the following projections can be made:

    -At the season rate of 13.6 Ruf will hit 3 more home runs leaving him at 36 for the season
    -At the August rate of 5.93 Ruf will hit 7 more home runs leaving him at 40 for the season
    -at the post all break rate of 8.38 Ruf will 5 more home runs leaving him at 38 for the season

    Obviously the season rate is more of a floor for Ruf, as he is in this fireball hot streak.

    So the floor is Howard’s record and he will more likely hit 38-40 HR’s this season.

    Let us remember minor league season is a month shorter than the MLB, so we are talking about a guy that in a full season of baseball would be approaching 50 HR’s, add on top of that the guy is a career .300 + hitter. But alas there is the drop off of production from AA to MLB, fine lets slice the HR total in half and shave 30 points off the BA. What you are left with is .270 hitter and 20-25 HR’s a year. 

    And again having seen in person about half of HR’s this year, they are not barely clearing the wall, they are not only going to LF, they are crushed over the deck in left, they are to dead center, and his HR in Harrisburg on Monday was crushed to RF into the trees beyond the scoreboard. Having seen Rizzotti, Overbeck, Bozeid. Ruf is NOT one of these guys. His HR total is split evenly between RHP and LHP, he has true pole to pole power, he is patient, has excellent plate discipline and has a nice smooth short swing. 

    This is a golden opportunity for the Phillies, if they over look it , and waste/lose it, it’s on them. Ruf is ball player plain and simple. He is 26, so what, god knows the Phillies have never mismanaged a players development before. If he is not in LF at some point this September at CBP, in the type of season that the big club has had it will be a travesty. 

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    1. Travesty? It is a travesty that he wouldn’t be able to see major league pitching until next spring training? I fail to see the logic here.

      I would love to see Ruf do great things at the major league level, I think almost every Phillies fan would. But the clamoring for him like he is Babe Ruth incarnate is a little much don’t ya think? Could he be a capable ML player? Of course. Could he be terrible? Of course. Why is there such a sense of urgency to see him play in Philly in September? Am I missing something?

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      1. I am not claiming he is babe Ruth, I clearly stated .270 20-25 HR’s, as for the why. 1) he’s earned it 2) the Phillies have obviously wasted enough time, which is the reason why he’s 26 and in AA. Let’s get the show on the road here. You wanna see if he can handle MLB pitching? Thn put him in the damn MLB, it’s not like the Philies are playing for anything this september It’s all about 2013 now right? Get the guy as many AB’s as possible and time in LF, I don’t see how this could possibly hurt. He’s not a prospect, there is nothing invested here to screw up by moving him up too fast. It’s a pleasant cheap surprise that is possible why not see if he can do it.

        This isn’t just about Ruf either, call the kids up let them play, that s what you do in September when the season is lost, shut down Worley, Doc and Utley, call up the likes of Cloyd, Pettibone, Gillies and Ruf etc…. Obviously there are prospects that need to develop properly like Asche, Valle, so leave them alone etc… But plain and simple this should be done.

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        1. Dude, .270 hitters who hit 20-25 homeruns in the majors are like…all stars. At least in a non first base position.

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        2. What cracks me up about this are two things – first, the “obviously” wasted time comment, which is entirely divorced from Ruf’s actual career progression – second, the stubborn lack of acknowledgement of the fact that Ruf has just 30 career games in the OF in his minor league career. If the team had a hole at first base, or if Ruf had played even 100 games in LF – then the argument would make sense. Neither circumstance is true.

          Even so, I guess a case can be made for bringing him up, but acting like it is an obvious no brainer decision is silly. The same can be said about the other guys as well, though even moreso – especially for Pettibone and Gillies, who are actual prospects for whom their are real reasons NOT to promote them (inning pitched for Pettibone are already high; Gillies is not close to ready for the majors and his confidence could be rocked by his likely poor performance). Cloyd IMO is a guy who is likely to fool hitters the first time through the league but not after – so in his case the fact that the team isn’t playing for anything argues against promoting him.

          And why in God’s name you would want to shut down Utley and Halladay is mystery to me. Worley I can see.

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          1. I completely agree with Jeremy’s “obviously” wasted time comment with respect to Ruf. Look, if you draft a college player you start with someone who is already 22. If you’re going to move them along at a rate of one level a year, regardless of how well they do, as you might with a high school player then you are going to end up with a 26 year old in AA. If you now are going to use their age as an argument that their success can’t be taken seriously, what was the point of drafting them in the first place? Ruf was successful at every level he was assigned to. He should have been moved faster (skipped levels) in view of his age.

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            2. The better college players can handle a double jump one off-season or warrant a mid-season promotion. Ruf simply wasn’t showing stats until 2011, and then good, but not great. At that point, the team started treating him as a possible player. He went to AFL last fall, and while you can argue he should have been in left field all year in AA, they had a full outfield much of the year with James, Gillies and Castro, all of whom were likely considered at least one “prospect-notch” higher than Ruf coming into the year.

              I wonder what happens in the AAA OF next year. Kinda hard to see them hanging on to anyone there over those 4 AA guys, with James a possible candidate to get left behind. I suppose that could happen, but I doubt it. Ruf could still see time at first also, plus there are ABs for a DH, so maybe Mitchell or Hudson or both stick around. Or maybe one goes to AA and just deals with it. Or maybe they lose James or Castro to the Rule 5. Hard to see them protecting both plus Collier. 5 MiLB OFs (counting Ruf) on your 40 man is a lot, especially with all the pitchers they’ll need to carry through.

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          2. We can go back and forth on this stuff till we are blue in the face. He proceeded at a rate of 2 levels per year for his first 2 years – essentially the equivalent of being double jumped. He spent most of his second year in A+. In his third year, he repeated a level because his first crack at A+ was not very successful. This year he “only” jumped one level, but virtually no one skips AA. I find nothing – zero – to criticize about that progression.

            The irony here is that there is, at least, a facially interesting question about how the Phillies treated him. Why wait till now to try him out in LF? There may be a good answer for that, but at least it is an interesting question on its face. Unlike his progression from level to level, which IMO was very reasonable, and CERTAINLY wasn’t “obviously” wrong. Saying it was just betrays ignorance about the game of baseball.

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            2. How much of a difference would that have really made?

              What might have made a difference – might, and hindsight is 20/22 – would have been trying him out in LF earlier.

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        3. “…obviously wasted enough time”.
          1. What time has been wasted? Ruf didn’t have past seasons that indicated he shouldn’t have spent the time he did, in A ball. His 1st year in Clearwater, at the age of 24, was relatively pedestrian for a first baseman.
          2. He’s earned it (callup to MLB)? He earned a promotion to AAA a month ago, but he hasn’t earned a call-up to the MLB team. He isn’t needed, and he isn’t on the 40 man roster.

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        4. Yes and Steve Lerud should really be on the 40 man and get called up to Philly instead of a guy like Ruf

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          2. Not a fair gripe there. Complain that JC Ramirez is still on the 40-man or Joe Savery. Unnecessary pieces. You need a backup catcher and they’re not using Valle because it would be a bad move for his development.

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            1. Too bad Tuffy isn’t getting a chance in Toronto, now would have been his time. I was such a big supporter of him getting the call this year. (tear)

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          3. Yeah I had the inside scoop a couple hours ahead of time, just kidding I only knew it was gonna happen but not the why behind it. I have some close contacts with some of the players.

            And yes I do wish Tuffy was still around for this exact scenario

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    2. If brought up to the Phillies, Ruf would likely struggle with the double jump. So, if he played the last month in left field and hit poorly and fielded poorly, would you then say that he had his shot and give up on him? I don’t think you could make any decision about Ruf based on these last few weeks, not even a 40 man roster slot decision, so there is no urgency to call him up other than to satisfy the curiosity of the people on this website. Let him start in AAA next year and if he does well, they can bring him up then. In any event, he will not start for the Phillies af first base (Howard) or in left field (inexperience), so at least he can play regularly in AAA.

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  12. What do you think? Below is anticipated arrival time of current minor leagers. Pitchers may change from Sp to RP. Who did I miss?
    Plenty of pitching, shortage of infielders a problem. Outfielders can be free agents to fill major league positions.

    2013 2014 2015 2016
    Starting Pitching
    Pettibone, Jonathan Cloyd, Tyler Justin Friend Seth Rosin
    Brody Colvin Lisalverto Bonilla Miguel Nunez
    Trevor May Austin Hyatt Austin Wright
    Ethan Martin Perci Garner
    Adam Morgan
    Jesse Biddle

    Relief Pitching
    Diekman, Jake DeFratus, Justin Ramirez, J.C.
    Savery, Joe

    2013 2014 2015 2016
    Catcher
    Valle, Sebastian Tommy Joseph Cameron Rupp
    First Base
    Darin Ruf Jim Murphy
    Second Base
    Hernandez, Cesar
    Third Base
    Overbeck, Cody Cody Asche
    Shortstop
    Miguel Abreu Edgar Duran
    Outfield
    Tyson Gillies
    Jiwan James

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    1. Your formatting is messed up, so it’s hard to comment. All I’ll say is that there are a few names there who are non-prospects (e.g., Murphy, Overbeck), but, on the other hand, there are some lower minors guys, as well as long shot full season guys*, which could well be arriving by 2016. Not to mention Franco, the most obvious exclusion, arguably the team’s top position prospect.

      *You include some of those, but not all of those, and IMO not the most likely of those to make it. e.g., Collier is more likely to make it than James.

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    1. Apparently you forgot Trayce Thompson at number 8 since he’s listed as being on AA Reading. The more the merrier!

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    2. That has to be one of the best single week lines any pitcher has put up this year. Both of his Game Scores were in the 80s.

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    3. Well , Ruf moved up in their eyes it seems. Last week he was in their Man Among Boys category. Exploiting all the huge advantages athletically anyone 26 has over everyone 23 (or whatever the Eastern League League average age is).

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  15. Cool stat… if Ruf manages to hit 5 home runs between now and the end of the month, he will have tied the record for most home runs in a month all time by any player. (though he would have done it in the minors). The record is 20 by Sammy Sosa in 1998.

    I’m having a hard time fighting my urge to scream “HE CAN BE AN ALL STAR!”, it’s taking all my internal fortitude not to jump all over the bandwaggon. please please please shock everyone and play LF well…

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  16. All time record for home runs in a month – Sammy Sosa – 20 In 1998, 2nd place is Randy York with 18 in 1937, 3rd is tied at 17 with Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds in 1927 and 2001 respectively. Ruf has 7 days to accomplish that feat alibet in the minors. Pretty cool. (he’s at 15 now)

    My heart is and brain are in a fight to the end over this guy… I heart wants to scream ‘HE’S GONNA BE AN ALLSTAR’ … by my brain is yelling back “HE’S ORG FILLER”… Ahh so fun!

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    1. Well at the very least he is likely going to be the EL MVP with a decent chance at triple crown, leading in homers by alot, tied for RBI, and 4th in Avg. about 10 points behind.

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      1. Yeah, I took a look at that, the guy leading the league with a .322 batting average has moved up to AAA so he won’t get any help there.

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  19. In case anyone else knows who he is, Andrew Aizenstadt got promoted from WP to CW. Great story- went from Babson College to one year at Va Tech. Undrafted, he was playing for the Wichita Wingnuts in the Amer Assoc. Phils signed him in late July and he made his debut vs Hudson Valley and looked very good. Has continued to be excellent except one clunker. One month in and he joins the Threshers for the playoff push. Nice story and hope he can keep it up.

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