Just noticed I didn’t give you one of these this week. Have at it.
General Discussion
Just noticed I didn’t give you one of these this week. Have at it.
136 thoughts on “General Discussion”
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Phuture Phillies 
I think the Phils believe that they have to play out the string with their regulars for the sake of the fans. To me this is a bad misreading of fan sentiment. The energy on the Phils now is in newcomers like Kratz, Frandsen and Brown. I think fan interest is now turning to other new faces, Cloyd, Pettibone, Gillies, Ruf, Aumont. If Charlie is wedded to his vets, it’s totally on him and not justifiable in terms of fan interest as I read it.
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What are you talking about? It’s one thing if we’re the Astros and we trade away everybody and have to field a team from the minors. We still have established players making decent money. You think Howard is going to sit so that Ruf can get a look? We just played the Brewers, last I checked, Braun, Ramirez, Hart, Weeks, Gomez, Gallardo, Axford are still playing. None of those guys are sitting. And trust me, Weeks should be sitting.
And you think all the fans at the ballpark know all the prospects? We know the prospects because we’re the hardcore fans.
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i will agree with the mender to a degree. Does Utley need to play 29 consecutive games again? Should we give Howard a blow from time to time? Does anyone want to see Polanco anymore, Schneider, really? The new blood makes it interesting, but we cannot just toss the main guys aside. Give us a peek at the new guys while resting the big boys.
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Two pitchers at AAA pitching lights out. Worley needs the chips out. And please don’t give me the Mophead bit that he can’t hurt his arm any more.
Has anyone in baseball heard of nerve fibers?
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It’s obvious that Worley’s still in there because they haven’t conceded the very slim chance of making the post-season. Depending on how the next three-four games go, this may have been his last start of the season.
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dang – i need to take a lesson from you because that was not obvious to me
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I’d think it’s more of a situation where they don’t think Tyler Cloyd is going to be much better so why not just let Vance get the reps?
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I guess you are right. There is a chance after the house cleaning.But I feel like high school when the great looking “tease girl” strolls by . You know it won’t happen but you keep up hope.
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+ 1. I think the energy is there to see players who might potentially make an impact next year. Playing Utley, Rollins, and Howard isn’t an issue because they will be there next year. However, Frandsen could play 3rd, some of the young minor leaguers could get outfield looks because there will be open spots, and there should be opportunities in the pen and rotation. worley should be sat for the rest of the year and have surgery. Schneider still plays because you don’t want to overwork a catcher.
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If the MLB team sits Utley and Howard regularly certainly some certain people will stop going to games knowing that they are not going to see Chase Utley play ball or whatever… At the same time they really might ought to sneak in a few rests – ? – i don’t know I’m not a medical professional – ? – for R.Howard and Ut the Gut because of their achilles tendon and ailing lower half respectively. At the same time I never really question or suppose that I know any better or even any more than 1% of what’s up so … Those in the know will probably make the best and most informed decisions.
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I’m sorry to disagree, but nowhere is fan sentiment shifting from Utley, Rollins, Howard. Lee, Halladay, Hamels, and Paplebon to newcomers, but you’re right on Brown. He is generating great interest among fans. Is Kratz a newcomer or is he about mid-late 20’s?
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Krat is a newcomer to the Phillies and relatively new to the majors, but he is 32.
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Lets play Howard and Utley every possible play and save Cholly’s job. Like I said the Sanburg players are much more ready to play than Choolly’s.
BTW I thought Cholly was this great hitting guru.
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Sandberg will make a great Phillies manager one day. Jamie Moyer would make a great Phillies Pitching Coach, and Chris Coste would make a great Phillies Bench Coach.
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This is why Cholly may not be the best manager for the current team,and why it appears that the team has fallen so hard.I realize this team had a boatload of injuries this year,but what does he gain or the team by playing Polanco over Frandsen? Same way with playing Sneider over Kratz.
To turn this thing around,they will need to find a few diamonds in the rough,hence play Kratz and Frandsen.Besides they were hot lately.
The idea that Jimmy Popup is still in the leadoff spot every day,is scary if you really think about it,is Cholly scared or just plain stupid? He could put Juan Pierre in there on the days that he plays.
I have more issues,but this post is long enough..
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Maybe Polanco could play his way to Free Agent Type B status… Juan Pierre is so great.
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That no longer exists. You make him a qualifying offer, which is double the cost of picking up his option, or you get no comp when he leaves. Polanco is playing because the Phillies will always defer to their vets and he needs to start hitting by the end of the season if he expects to get a half-way decent contract somewhere for 2013. It is all deference to Polanco’s wallet.
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Bring up Gillies and at least platoon him in CF with Mayberry who should be hitting only against lefties. Bring up Ruf and platoon him in left with Pierre and then Schierholtz when he’s activated. Play Brown as much as possible. Play Frandsen as much as possible. Bring up Hernandez and spell Utley at least a game a week. Shut down Worley and put Pettibone and Cloyd in the rotation. Put Kendrick back in long relief. Treat Kratz as what he is currently, the Phils #2 catcher. Play him as much as possible until Ruiz is ready and break Chooch in slowly once he’s back. Do we really need to see Schnieder, Polanco, and Nix in more than fill-in roles and do we need to see Mayberry and Schierholtz in more than platoon roles? To ask the question is to answer it.
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Wow! You are completely correct…which means I agree with you. ’13 will be a time to include people like Gillies, Pettibone, Asche, etc. on the 25. Since CF is wide open, Gillies needs to be given some time this season in Sept along with Pettibone.
Asche can wait until after spring training where he can show how worthy he can be at 3b since that position is also wide open. Whether Kendrick can be used as trade bait along with ? (Valle ?) to get a better righty outfielder, I don’t know, but I’d hope so. Pettibone qualifies for a shot at #5; having him introduced to MLB in Sept gives him a leg up and allows a Worley shut down for surgery prep.
There is no reason to keep playing people like Polanco who will not be in Philly next season. Schneider is a lost cause; when Chooch comes back, Schneider’s name in the lineup should be a rarity replaced by Kratz.
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Gillies has precious few AA AB. The best thing for him is to continue to excel at AA and then come back and compete in ST. Pettibone has thrown enough innings. He should be shut down at the end of the minor league season and compete in ST. Ruf should be up in September. If Cloyd is going to be on the 40-man over the winter, he should be up. The relievers on the 40-man should be up. Frandsen should play every game, Polanco should fill in for Utley about every second or third game.
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That was good, except I disagree about Fransden – he looks great on paper, but I don’t know- there’s got to be more to it. Also I see Schierholtz as a definite one of our five outfielders going into next season.
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Wow, you guys have it all figured out. First of all, Kratz is playing almost everyday, Schneider is in to give Kratz a break. And I think Schneider played yesterday because he calms down Worley.
Do I think Worley should be shut down? Yes. Do I think kendrick should be in long relief? Right now, no. Kendrick will likely be traded anyways, he’ll have more trade value as a starter. Nobody wants to trade for a long relief guy making $4M+. Bring up Gillies? Yes. Bring up Hernandez and Ruf? No.
At this point, I think the Phillies know what they have in Frandsen and Kratz.
Unless these called up players get regular playing time, what’s the point? Hernandez to come up to get 1 start a week? And I don’t think Ruf can play LF right now, so don’t get me started on that.
We’re talking about all these changes, and yet, funny how the other bad teams are not doing this also.
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We’re talking about changes to see what we can do for next year. No other reason. Do we really need to see what the typical veteran below average player can do?
What do we possibly have to lose by playing some new faces rather than the old standby’s for the rest of the year?
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“think” ? Playing is a reality show.
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Anyone notice dominic brown last night, geeze… you guys only bring up the hugely negitive. See the below link recap:
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20120823_Brown_s_heroics_not_enough_as_Phillies_fall_to_Reds.html
The points that are most interesting to me is as follows:
1. His power appears to finally be coming back (maybe, still early to tell for sure)
2. The one ball he misplayed was not a “reading the ball off the bat error” sounded more like he just “lost it in the lights or what have you”.
3. He’s got above average though maybe not quite plus (but close) speed and a plus arm. Probably the best arm in the outfield since victorino played in RF and won his first gold glove. Exciting!
He might be the player who rebounded the greatest from last year (even from early this year). Kudos to him.
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Looks like Brown is finally starting to put it together. He muscled out his HR, that was a nice sight indeed. I don’t think Brown will ever be a burner but he has enough speed to patrol RF. He really has a strong arm though you could see the ball tail on him when he threw that rocket to Schneider. He’s up there in arm strength with Giancarlo Stanton.
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Brown still profiles as an All Star RF…. but it’s definately not a foregone conclusion. The last few weeks have certainly been exciting… we shall see, wish I could look into a crystal ball 2 years from now.
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I love Brown, and agree his progress so far this year is encouraging. A few quibbles:
(1) I think I am a little more worried about his power than you are, though obviously last night was encouraging.
(2) There is no question his fielding is much improved. How much is still an open question. One interesting thing is that both subjective observation and fielding metrics (SSS warning) suggest that he has been much better in left than in right, FWIW.
(3) His LD% and infield hit percentage suggest that he has been a little unlucky with BIP. If he can maintain the superb contact rate, bump the HRs up a bit, maintain the LD rate and infield hit rate, he should be a .300 hitter. With his plate discipline, that translates to a near .400 OBP.
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I think I’m just being optimistic about his power. We’ll see… I think next year will be very telling, his swing has changed significantly over the last 2 years, as the corridination with the new swing improves, and if he stays healthy for a while, I would expect to see the power numbers improve. While I don’t think he’s a 30+ HR player, I could see him being just north of 20. As strange as it sounds given how long brown has been in the league, I feel like he still has “projection”.
Interest point about LF/RF defensive splits. Another point is if you look at his advanced statistics, he’s not running the basepaths all that well and his range in the outfield this year has been limited (both in comparison to his history prior to this year), I wonder if it’s a health thing related to his hamstring injury earlier this year.
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I hope you are right about his power; to be clear, I think you are more likely than not correct, but my concern I guess is that I think the beta is quite high on him a as power hitter. The difference between (say) 22 HR a year and (say) 10 is pretty great.
Again the SSS caveat on fielding metrics (though again, subjective observations seem to bear this out), but the difference between LF and RF at this point is so extreme that, if it persists, he isn’t going to make it in RF, even with his arm. You wouldn’t think that a guy with such a strong arm would be so much worse in RF though over the long run.
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It would be nice if he could stick in right because it would open up left to a worse defense player who might have more bat. But his arm in left would a huge weapon there that most left fielders do not have.
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Well, we’ve basically got another 38 games to see how things evolve regarding those splits between RF and LF. So that should normalize some. As to the power, I’d be elated if he gets 5 more home runs for the rest of the year, that would put him in the low 20’s per 162 and be a really encouraging sign going forward.
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Gary Sheffield tutored him in the off-season in hitting. Looks like it has been invaluable education to date.
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I was there last night and yes, the ball he misplayed in the outfield he lost in the lights almost right away. But that throw home . . . wow. and he got close to throwing someone else out too but the throw was high. Also very nice to see him turning and actually driving the ball.
also, anyone know why Martinez wasn’t trying to steal second last night? I know he’s not overly fast, but you can run on Chapman and it’s worth a shot. I’d rather take my shot with an attempted steal and a bloop hit than multiple hits or Chapman. Plus the outfield would have to play in a little bit and maybe Howard’s out would’ve found space. small quibble
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Unless the Phillies sign Bourn or play Gillies, they should consider leading off with Brown next year. An OBP of nearly .400 compared to Jimmy’s OBP of almost .300 should result in an extra 15-20 runs over a season and probably, by itself, would increase the victory total by about 5-10 wins.
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Agreed, I wanted to say this yesterday. His on base would be great at the top.
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Well if Kendrick is being traded (I doubt it), I would want to know who we have internally who could replace him.
“We’re talking about all these changes, and yet, funny how the other bad teams are not doing this also.”
More to the point, the good teams are doing it. Here in D.C. where I live there was controversy about bringing up Bryce Harper so soon and some controversy surrounding how heavily he was used following the All Star break. But he gives the lineup a spark and, I would submit you don’t have to be a Bryce Harper type of talent to add a spark. The Phils are getting what spark it has not from tired under-performing vets but from some hungry newcomers, not all of them even that young.
This is the first time since 2006 when the Phils have the dubious luxury to experiment. And, as I tried to point out, it doesn’t involve benching All Stars but relegating guys like Polanco, Schneider and Nix to a spot on the bench, giving Worley the chance to start his rehabilitation early and see what help is available on the farm for the back end of the Phils’ 2013 rotation.
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Kendrick is still cost controlled for 2 more years, but I don’t think he’s going to last the 2 years because prospects will be knocking on the door. I should have clarified, I don’t think Kendrick will be traded in 2013, but likely for 2014. For 2014, he’ll be in his last year of arbitration and probably staring at a $6-8M contract.
So you want the Phillies to bring up players for a spark? But you don’t need to bring up 5 players to have a spark like you mentioned with Harper. I’m not saying changes shouldn’t be made. I’m just saying that wholesale changes don’t have to be made.
Schneider and Nix are not playing that much anyways, and Polanco just came back. And the Phillies are going to take it easy with polanco. The season is lost anyways, but i still want to see a decent product on the field.
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Kendrick doesn’t have a bad contract at all.
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You should check your notes, he signed an extension which only bought out 2 of his arbitration years. He was super 2 so he’s still eligible for arbitration in 2014.
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sh**t, you’re right. I didn’t know that.
What a horrible investment. I don’t know how anyone can like or defend this deal. Kendrick is just another guy. They could be getting similar/better production from a cheaper option at AAA (from one of the fringe guys, which is what kendrick is).
Amaro needs to go. He is so bad as his job
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Kyle Kendrick is not a fringe guy. Brian Sanches is a fringe guy. Andrew Carpenter is a fringe guy. Kendrick is a 5th starter who can swing into the bullpen. Not to mention he’s been pretty durable his entire career. If Kendrick got onto the open market at his age and experience, he will easily get $4M per year. That is just the economics of the sport.
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His WAR this year is a whopping 0.6. Has only been above 2.0 (league avg) once in his career…and it was barely above at 2.1 in 2007.
he is the epitome of ‘just a guy’. Complete waste of money. Like I said, they could and should be getting similar production for a fraction of the cost.
Then again, it’s a typical amaro type move…overpay for limited production. They must not have taught ROI at Stanford
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He’s consistantly average. At 4 million on a short contract is a relatively low risk move. I agree, I’d rather see 1st or 2nd year players vie for that spot, but Kendrick is not what’s wrong with this team.
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+1
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no, he’s not the only problem. I’m not saying that. The org philosophy is fatally flawed though. Amaro is completely overmatched in his current role. Everything from his FA moves to his extension of homegrown players to his management of the draft/farm system (their farm system stinks right now…I know people prefer to be sanguine, but people here should open their eyes and realize this). How they failed to budget for one of their second round picks is beyond me (only lost him by a few thousand bucks).
I could go on, but I’m sure you get the point…so I digress. It’s just incredibly frustrating to watch him ruin what was a championship caliber franchise.
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There is a reason why no one is killing the Phillies over Rash, all indications are that he lost a lot of velocity this spring and the Phillies did not want to meet his asking price. They didn’t lose him, they just didn’t pay what they thought he was worth. When looking at his extensions the Howard contract is a disaster but the Utley extension was brilliant, Rollins was not an overpay it was the going rate and there were not a ton better options. The Hamels contract is expensive but reasonable. His trade record is up and down, he got Lee for nothing and Halladay for a 4th OF, a injured starter, and catcher who has pedigree but still hasn’t made the majors, the Oswalt deal was fair, and out of desperation he overpaid wildly for Pence. The industry for the most part praises how the Phillies draft and do international signings, they probably get some of the best bang for the buck in the industry, and while it could be better it has by no means been horrible. Right now the four deals he made are looking like steals (Martin should be good, he sold really high on Pence compared to what his value is now, something for Thome, got a prospect and salary relief for Blanton).
Kendrick may be a bit overpaid but he is not a problem with this team and is better than almost any pitcher in the farm would be if they replaced him tomorrow.
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He did not sell high on Pence, even if his value is even lower now than it was a month ago. You may recall that he bought Pence at his absolute peak, and gave up a king’s ransom to get him (Singleton, Cosart, Santana). It’s nice that he got a decent catching prospect back, but come on.
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Sorry that was me above defending Amaro
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you forgot to mention the papelbon signing (horrendous)…the polanco extension (also horrendous)…depending on guys like contreras, baez, wigginton, nix, etc. utley was a gillick signing. I like the hamels signing, but he screwed that up…ended up overpaying by once again misreading the market. he signs him in the offseason/earlier in the year and he pays significantly less.
It’s no coincidence that the team has taken a step backwards every year of amaro’s tenure. I don’t care about regular season win totals…with this team’s expectations, playoff performance is what matters. And that’s when this team’s flaws have been exposed.
Amaro is a horrible GM. Plain and simple
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Judging a team based on a 5-10 game sample every year is crazy. It’s kind of unfortunate that it’s how we have to decide champions but you can’t just ignore the regular season as an evaluation tool.
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Absolutely true.
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Can you use your screen name instead of hiding behind the “Anonymous” name?
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Before anyone questions Brown’s speed, take into consideration that he hurt his knee twice this year in the minor league. I doubt he wants to risk re injuring again for the rest of this season. You can easily tell that he’s somewhat favoring his knee when he runs.
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Haha I just mentioned it above, I forgot about those injuries, I was just thinking of the hamstring.
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Probably will be scoped in the off-season.
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As in arthrscopic surgery? Where did you hear that?
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Good to see Cholly comment about he wants to play Nex more in the outfield. I am sure we were all thinking the same thing. I’d love to see Gillies. His potential represents what we need.
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I said it before and will say it again, is lindblom anybetter than what we have here already, he is a long ball machine. bring up defraus, this kid has more potential ,and is mostly ready to help.just never remember a bullpen this bad.cant get a inning out of these guys, amazing.I Watch bastardo and you can see he doesnt have the same slider and his fastball is not the same.how do you lose your stuff,unless you are hurt?
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DeFratus missed the majority of the year with an elbow injury… they’re not going to throw him into fire before September.
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Hamels 2009? My money says that Bastardo felt he was a major leaguer, and didn’t do the things last offseason that made him a major leaguer in the first place. If his fastball is still at 92 when it is time to come north next March, I hope he is not on the team. He is never going to have the pinpoint command required to thrive at 92 MPH, at 96 MPH command isn’t a requirement.
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I know it would never happen but just looking at this team why doesn’t the line up look like this next year.
Rollins (or CF if you can move Rollins out)
Brown
Utley
Ruiz
Howard
CF (or Rollins)
3B
LF
Pitcher
Moving Howard out from 4-5 allows you to have Brown bat 2 and break up the lefties, if you believe in the power for Howard, the new three in front of him would have much better OBP than they do right now. The top of the line up would work pitchers and wouldn’t be completely slump proof but Brown, Utley, and Ruiz should be drawing walks and giving the chance to start rallies throughout games.
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Rollins is really a 7/8 hole hitter at this point in his career and really has been the last year or two. I’m not sure that will happen as long as Manuel is the manager though. His OBP is atrotious and he doesn’t have the power to bat 5th or 6th. As for moving Howard out of 4, I think that is less likely then moving Utley to 5, have Ruiz at 3, and Brown at 2. The reason I’m saying not to move Howard is because I just don’t think Manuel will do it. Howard to me at this point looks like a prototypical 5, good (not elite) power, low’ish average. If he can return to .270/45HR then it’s a different story, I just don’t see that happening.
The ideal batting order is Ruiz at the 5, the problem is he’s the only righty from 2 to 5 and we and trying to split them up. A better option would be the Phillies trade Cliff Lee, absorb half his salary and our 2 best prospects for for Mike Trout or Andrew McCutchen, and make him the 4, howard the 5, and ruiz at 6 or 3 depending on Utley’s health. But we all know that’s got exactly a zero chance of happening. 🙂
Then again, I think that depends a lot on how both of them are going into next year. Howard has struggled until recently, having him finish the year good, and then come into spring training next year hungry and in excellent shape would be a huge benefit. Utley meanwhile, I’ve got no pulse what-so-ever on how his knees will be next year. He could start 150 games and put up a .290/.385/.500 line next year or he could start 80 and have a line of .260/.350/.400, and I wouldn’t be suprised at either. He looks great right now, but I just don’t know.
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Thank goodness you acknowledged there is 0% chance of acquiring McCutchen or Trout. I almost jumped out of my window from that suggestion.
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Let’s acquire both for Kendrick and Worley.
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My opinion… Dom Brown has done more than enough to prove that he’s going to be a fine player that is only going to get better. He has shortened his swing (like everyone wanted him to) so the power is down but he still has that raw power in him – the ability to sit on a hanger and drive it deep is definitely there – I think he’s going to get stronger (he has the frame to put on more muscle/weight) so we’ll probably see more of those line drive home runs. If he can get his knee healthy in the offseason, he’ll be fine on the base paths – the speed is there (we saw that last season). He’s definitely not 100% but he’s giving it his all, contributing to a team trying to get back in it and it’s encouraging to see things coming together. As for his defense, it’s work in progress BUT there has been progress. He started playing baseball at age 17 so the game is still relatively new to him… he’s still figuring out when to let balls drop and when to make an attempt. He’s really unsure when the ball is hit right at him but he’s coming along just fine.
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Not looking to burst anyone’s bubble, but KLaw on Asche:
Joe (PA)
In a previous chat you brushed off the notion that Cody Asche was a legitimate prospect. What about him leads to that assessment?
Klaw (1:21 PM)
Primarily his swing, which doesn’t project for any power because he really doesn’t load, and his poor defense. He’s hit a handful of homers in AA, but Reading’s a fairly homer-friendly park, and so is Harrisburg where he hit two the other day.
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Also:
Kris (Philly)
Better 3B prospect…cody asche or maikel franko? Either one a legit MLB everyday guy?
Klaw (2:05 PM)
I know Franco’s riskier, but I’d much rather bet on him becoming an average or better big league 3b than Asche.
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I don’t understand how some people take Keith Law’s opinion as the ultimate truth. Ask yourself if he was such a great Assistant GM would he be working for ESPN instead of a MLB team?
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It isn’t gospel, but it is an informed opinion. He also has contacts with people working in MLB front offices, so his opinions are reflective of how people inside baseball think. That doesn’t necessarily matter towards the development of one prospect, but it does matter towards the real time value of the prospect. If the Phillies had been buyers at the deadline Asche would have brought little or nothing in return.
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That’s a painful report… though he’s the first person I’ve heard say Asche has poor defense so take it with a grain of salt. The power thing I think is a little bit more justifiable. Asche does need to get stronger when evaluating his last two years from a purely statistical perspective. I don’t know about his swing mechanics however, can anyone comment on that? I take it he has an extremely level swing?
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Asche primarilly worked on ‘loading’ in the off-season with the Philly coaches and he said that was the difference this year. Someone needs to inform KLaw.
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Given the number of prospects in the minors, it should come as no great suprise that Law doesn’t get always have the most up-to-date reports. That said, Callis is quite high on him, so you can’t say Law is gospel. Besides, it’s fairly normal for scouting reports to differ dramatically when these guys have probably only seen a player once or twice. When I’m evaluating a player, half of my view of him comes from his stats, the other half from as many scouting reports as I can find. Which means in reality, KLaw’s opinion really only has the potential to impact 10% of my opinion on Asche. (assuming I hear from 5 different professional scouts on the prospect).
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You have to figure that Law is only focused on impact guys and players people are talking about. Also if you follow his writing it has been mostly amateur and AZL for the last month or so. If you want the best opinions check with the prospect writers in October and November when they are making all of their calls to scouts while working on their Top 100 and org top 10s, until then it is hard to blame a guy for chasing down the most up to date reports on say Wil Myers (or another close to the bigs or high profile guy) and not Cody Asche, they are after all driven by what their editors want, not what we want.
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this couldn’t be more wrong
these comments are so dumb. I love how people here read the internet and think they know more than those who analyze prospects for a living. bunch of geniuses
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BA rules.
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here’s klaw on ruf:
Jake (PA)
What should I think of Darian Ruf? Is he a legitimate prospect?
Klaw
(1:07 PM)
No, he’s not. He’s an older guy beating up on younger competition.
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The other day someone posted that asche was a good fielding thirdbasemen, now he isnt, these reports are very confusing, love to see this kid in person, i dont believe in stats, as much as seeing himplay. each day there is a different opinion on him franco. nuts. But to tell the truth right now this systems has not one start player, now someone can develop. but the general opinon is its a weak system and i concur.
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Does anybody think we could flip Valle and Pitching Prospect to Chicago for Brent Morel in the offseason or Youkilis? Would it be enough to fill the third base gap? Or go big and try to get Carlos Gomez if the Bourn/Pagan deal falls through?
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youkilis is a free agent. I don’t want any part of him though. not sure why anyone would
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Youkilis can be a reasonable stopgap 3B for us until Asche or Franco take over for awhile. I believe the recent events with the Red Sox clear Youkilis of being a clubhouse cancer. So if the Phillies sign him to one year contract I would not have a problem with that.
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Dom Brown has defensive warts but Pense added a run to the opposition about every two days. Therefore Brown is actually an improvement.
ASCHE in 2013,
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Sure, Kendrick has become (recently) a good 5th starter. Knocking on the door is Pettibone. He, to me, is a guy who should be able to fit in the #5 slot, backed by Martin soon enough.
While Kendrick has elevated his status recently with some good games, he offers the Phils the opportunity to get a much-needed good righty outfielder when supplemented by a guy like Valle, since good prospect catchers close to the bigs are a valuable commodity.
IMO, the need for that good righty outfielder far outweighs Kendrick’s value and could be replaced by the above-mentioned prospects,. We know that the lineup is lefty dominated. And both Gillies and Asche hit lefty. NOW is the time and the opportunity to grab that necessary outfielder.
And, let the kids play!
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Watch Asche in spring training. My bet: he will have shined up his glove worthiness AND added some muscle weight for power.
My bet: he then will either come north w the Phils or spend a little time at LV and then come up.
You “can’t hold a good man down.” He is one of them.
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I would not even worry about his Glove Worthiness, despite what KLaw says.
Asche, a 3B in college, was learning 2B last year.
I suspect KLaw might have seen Asche play maybe ONE game and likely at 2B.
Back to his natural 3B spot, I’ve heard nothing but good things from those who actually have seen him play. Same with the swing. Based on last years results, I’m sure there were issues but Reading is not THAT much of a hitters park. If so more players would be hitting HRs left and right.
National writers have a harder time with players who come out of nowhere.
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Look, I’m not endorsing Law’s take on Asche; as I have made clear, I fall into the “realistically optimistic” camp on Asche, thinking that he has a good shot of being a solid major league regular third baseman for the Phillies for a few years starting in 2014 (though possibly trade bait when Franco is ready). A cost controlled player who can play a premium defensive position at an average level is enormously valuable – given his proximity, if the consensus was as optimistic about him as I am, he WOULD be a top 100 prospect, maybe even top 50.
But, while it’s reasonable to discount Law’s opinion as an outlier – the consensus appears more optimistic, if not quite as optimistic as I am, and not NEARLY as optimistic as a couple of apparent family members who post here – the idea that it is based only on limited observations by Law is laughable. Maybe he hasn’t seen him a lot – I don’t know, you don’t know – but Law also talks to scouts & is pretty plugged in. That doesn’t make him RIGHT, but if I had to accept the opinion of only one person – fortunately I don’t, I can consider multiple sources and my own evaluation of the statistical record – I would take Law over any single person who posts on this board, aside from maybe one of two guys who see the players every day (and I don’t think we have anyone like that this year with regard to Reading).
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Absolutley true, was Amaro has made too many mistakes. Comment went to wrong spot.
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Schwimmer down for Horst, Aumont stays up. I guess Rosenberg is the long man so he stays up, probably don’t want to disrupt instruction that Aumont is getting with the big league club either. Schwimmer is back on Sept 1 anyway
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Dodger’s just made another international signing. St L. just last week. Amaro must be busy watching 30 yr olds audition. Still a few good prospects left before the door closes.
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The divergence between certain groups on this forum regarding – let me put this as neutrally as possible – (a) the potential value of some of our prospects, plus journeyman Kevin Fransden, and (b) the likelihood and desirability of the Phillies filling the CF and 3B holes (in the short run, at least) in the trade or FA market is so great that it’s mostly not worth arguing whether the “play the kids in September” idea is a good one. (I would note that the chance that the battle for CF will be “wide open” by the time spring training starts is virtually zero, and the chance that the battle for third base will be “wide open” is higher but still quite low.)
But let me comment upon a couple of these guys:
(1) Set aside the fact that Fransden is 30 years old with over 600 major league PA before this season, and over 2000 minor league PA. Set aside the fact that prior to this year, he gave no indication at all that he was more than a bench guy at best. Set aside the fact that 85 PA is hardly cause to believe that, at the age of 30, Fransden has suddenly morphed into a major league regular. What is an additional 100 PA of so over the course of the rest of the season going to tell us about Fransden that we don’t already know? Not much. Now, if you happen to think Fransden is better than Polanco, I guess you’re still going to want to play him. But he isn’t.
(2) Ruf has a career total of 29 games in the OF at this point. If you really think Ruf can at some point be a major league regular in LF – IMO doubtful but stranger things have happened – then it seems to me that you would want him to have a little more experience learning the position in a low pressure environment, instead of on the job training in the major leagues.
(3) Gillies – okay, this really comes down mainly I guess to one of the two fundamental disagreements above, the seeming belief by some that hitting in AA is directly and immediately transferable to the majors. But at this stage of his career, Gillies triple slash would probably be around .250/.300/.300 in the majors, and I am being very generous. I’m not sure that would be terribly beneficial to his confidence or to his career.
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1. Fransden has earned a non-roster invite to spring training somewhere.
2. If Ruf can play LF he can be a bench player, if not the path is much harder.
3. Agree here, I think that line might be a bit low in BA but right otherwise because the speed I think gets him up to the .265 range but he still has a .300 OBP. Give him another year before worrying about him.
I think if the Phils go young at any position it is 3B and that means a big hitting corner guy to go with a new CF, I just see more growth from the farm at 3B that from any other position.
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I heard that Frandsen was a hot prospect in the Giants org, so there is still potential. Polanco has dropped off drastically in last 2 years
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Rergarding Frandsen versus Polanco – I certainly hope that it doesn’t come to that choice. Polanco still has defensive value, but even that seems to be slipping. But I’m not sure how relevant Frandsen’s long ago prospect statsus has to do with the debate. My recollection is that he was never a really “hot” prospect (he was a guy who had some good batting averages early in his minor league career – something that impresses a segment of the readership here, but generally not the scouts, unless supported by real skills), but if he was, his subsequent career certainly dispelled any notions that he was more than a major league back up. Again, the people on this site massively overestimate the number of players who break through in their early 30s – and when they do, ther eis usually much more in the minor league record to indicate a chance of success.
There’s nothing, nothing at all about Frandsen that makes him look like anything more than a replacement level player. Less than 100 PA this year means nothing – especially since his success this year is based almost entirely upon a batting average that looks unsustainable. He doesn’t walk, he doesn’t have any power, he doesn’t have any speed. He does have good contact skills – but nothing else.
it’s one thing to go overboard on guys like Asche and Ruf. After all, both of them, Asche especially, really do have a chance at major league success. We’re not merely wishing upon 100 PA contradicted by almost 3000 prior PA. But Fransden – just stop it. Given the lack of available quality third basemen, and the fact that the position is a strength of the minor league system, it is concievable that a guy like Frandsen will end up starting a number of games at third base for the team next season. But let’s not pretend that that prospect is anything more than what it is – a lack of decent options.
‘
It’s also pretty clear that whatever slim chances the team has of contending next year will take a substantial hit if Frandsen is the guy at third.
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1) What the Phil’s do at 3B will depend a lot on what they think of Asche and his chance to reach the show next year. They’ve been aggressive with him which shows they like him, but we really don’t know what they think. They’ve kind of gone against their track-record of taking it slow, but thus far he’s responded to each challenge.
2) Completely agree. Let him continue to learn where he’s comfortable and in the spring he can possibly battle for a bench spot or at the very least be at AAA ready to come up in case of injury. I don’t know if the lack of information about his transition to LF is positive or not but I’m inclined to think “no news is good news”. If he was a butcher out there they would have stopped the experiment already. He at least seems competent so let him continue to progress.
3) I think you’re selling Gillies a little short but I do agree that bringing him up now isn’t needed/warranted. Depending on how FA plays out this offseason he should get a long look in the spring for one of the OF spots, but almost certainly starting off at AAA and probably being first call-up. Of course that is all dependant on him staying on the field and continuing to show what he can do. Very impressed with him performing at this level after so much time off, kid will be a player if he holds up.
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I’m not the biggest Kendrick fan in the world (understatement). But he is an above replacement player (and, if anything, one could argue that the way WAR is calculated undervalues his contribution), able to be reasonably successful at the role of long relief and filling in as a starter when needed. A random AAA guy won’t give you that. There is value in that – value worth paying for. And 4 million a year, in the greater scheme of things, is not a high salary.
Is he overpaid? Probably a little. But using him as an example of poor decision making on the part of the organization is insane. The irony here is that, given the injuries combined with a decent performance by Kendrick this season, in retrospect what looked like a questionable contract at the time has worked out pretty well for the Phillies this year.
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I remember Mike Arbuckle or one of the Phillies management personnel saying back in ’07 that Kendrick reminded him of a younger Jason Schimdt. i hope he somes on like Schimdt did in his late 20’s with the Giants.
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hope springs eternal. Maybe if Kendrick visits Balco in the offseason and comes to Spring Training throwing his sinker 95 MPH. Also check out young Jason Schmidt, not even sure that was a compliment by Arbuckle: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schmija01.shtml
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Does Michael Martinez serve any purpose at all? The guy’s a worthless chump who can’t field nor hit. Is Amaro that stubborn that he can’t admit he screwed up by taking him in the rule 5 draft? It’s ridiculous, this guy’s a waste of a roster spot that could be used to develop someone in the minors who actually has potential to be a good player in the future.
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On a lighter less malicious note though, Dominic Brown looks like he can be a serious player. Everyday he’s looked better and better. He has made some fantastic plays in the outfield, has shown great plate discipline and good power.
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He looks much, much, much more comfortable at the plate this year. His new stance gives him so much more plate coverage.
He will be a good hitter…and hopefully an average defender eventually.
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Dom Brown is the truth
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I’d say we need a bigger sample before we anoint him as the next Mike Trout
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Who is calling him Mike Trout?
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I don’t see why he can’t be a Hunter Pence type player.
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Aumont making appearance in the 8th tonight vs. Reds. First Major League inning. One walk, no hits, no runs. Did not look bad…
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Phillies Phans wouldn’t know a great GM if he traded for Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence, and then during a down year due to injury and personnel confusion and – traded a pitcher we all, and when I say we all I mean not me/we all LOVED to HATE – and ate a little of his salary and we still able to stay under the salary cap limit- which was the point along with acquiring one pretty solid prospect, in a group of others – we will see- yeayea- . We also managed to trade Shane Victorino – (draft pick compensation even ?) and in doing so right then incinerate the lingering slow death that is the will they or will they not sign this aged fashion. Again – got a pretty solid prospect among a group and even landed our next ryan madson in lindblom yeah i know everyone’s gonna be quick to point out how bad he stinks(0%accurate), but get over it he’s a young major leaguer for a reason you’re going to have to display some patience here. He’s gonna kill it. Wow, we still have Dominic Brown to look forward to. It’s like how we got to enjoy Cliff Lee’s arrival, twice.
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When you are playing the contending teams, you play your best players,Its the right thing to do,when we were going for titles,would you like the cardinals to sit pujios, down or the mets not pitch santana and rest wright, no niese or others, its a unwrtiiten law you try to win, now against teams like miami yes play all the callups.you must try to win to be fair not to the fans , but to the other teams.
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Don’t forget the experts are sometimes wrong too. How was Mike Trout not picked #1 or even in the top five? How many football players were picked ahead of Tom Brady? Even the experts say that the baseball draft is somewhat of a crapshoot.Two,three years ago how high did they have Domonic Brown rated,and how could they not have seen his serious flaws in his swing and especially his fielding? Now after re-building his swing,and apparently working on his fielding,it looks like he has a chance in being a good major league ballplayer,IF he keeps improving.(Although I don’t understand why being a good outfielder is so difficult.I used to play outfield) That is also why I think it shouldn’t be to difficult for Darin Ruf to become a decent one.All these years that he has played baseball.don’t you think that during practice he has been out there chasing fly balls? He should have been,as that is good practice,for chasing pop-ups from first base.
I think sometimes a light goes on during a players career,that greatly helps slow the game down for them,and some of them will be a little older when that happens.
Also the reports that I’m hearing on Cody Asche’s make-up are very good,and yes maybe he just realized that the next few years are very important for his career,I think may contribute to him becoming a much better player that some experts think.
The bottom line if any one expert is right even most of the time,I’d be willing to bet that he would get paid more than any ballplayer!!
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Not to nitpick your point but, Trout was not picked early because no one saw him play his senior year of high school, it was a rainy spring in New Jersey so not many scouts saw him play and when they did it was against inferior competition, only when he reached pro ball were skills like his plate discipline able to be shown as elite and immediately after his AZL debut he was touted as one of the best prospects in baseball.
The problem with Ruf isn’t the ability to teach him something it is that you cannot teach him the athleticism needed.
The experts don’t have all the information available because they don’t always know what a team is doing with a prospect, and they are responsible for scouting all of baseball not just sitting on a few prospects/
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Regional scouts do not see the kids only in their senior season in HS. Trout was starting as a soph. and played AAU ball and summer camps through out his high school years There was a book on him. However, you are correct in that the appearance of inferior comp was a question.
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There was a book, the problem is to get drafted Top 5 overall normally takes an additional look by the GM or someone else high ranking in the organization. Trout still went 25 overall so there was enough there to make him a first round pick even with the inferior competition question
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Most experts do not know a fraction of what they pretend to know.
Even assuming a national writer is GREAT at analyzing players, the number of players they can seriously analyze is quite small. On a given day, great players look like fools and fools like like HOFers. The higher rated the prospect by group concensus, the more that player will be examined and there may be some intelligence behind the analysis. However, lower rated players who come on strong likely are being reviewed on pulling it out of their back side and perhaps having never seen or even analyzed a scouting report but just insert a name into a given report.
Hmm, Asche was drafted in the 4th round from college.
Good College Players go high.
Hence he is not a prospect.
So when someone asks I will just say he can’t field or hit.
I certainly won’t say “Gee, I’ve never seen him hit or field”
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From Jason Parks’ BP Chat yesterday:
edr577 (NJ): Dominic Brown has gotten off to a decent start offensively (minus significant power) with a .282/.364/.397 slash. He also is walking as much as he strikes out (10.2% each). Do you see power coming out of his current swing? Will he work out as a corner of? Thanks -Ed
Jason Parks: I don’t see big game power coming despite owning some of the qualities necessary for power. I think his game swing is a better fit for hard contact and a gap approach, and I think he could develop into a big doubles hitter with a strong batting average. Is that good enough for a corner? Maybe. Depends on the makeup of the team. I think he will have value as a major leaguer. I’ve always been a fan. I hope he exceeds current expectations.
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I am most interested in what the Phillies do in the OF for next year.
Already on the roster are backups: Nix, Schierholtz, and Mayberry, although I think Nix is the only one under contract but Mayberry is still a good platoon option. I still have no idea why they got Schierholtz though, since either he or Nix should be traded.
Brown should start in RF.
Expect Free Agent signing for CF.
Nix/Mayberry as LF platoon.
Gillies might be a year away but I definitely like his ‘energy’. Not sure he could remain a full time starter since he just does not have an enough data to build confidence in his future.
I still am curious if Ruf, James, Castro could be possible bench options.
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Phillies call up Steve Lerud from Reading as Schneider goes to the DL.
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I’m actually probably more sympathetic than I sound about the notion of Ruf as a reserve next year. The problem is a combination of (1) the fact that it is unwise to keep two bench players on the roster who are limited to 1B and corner OF (and yes, I know they briefly tried it this year, but unwisely IMO, especially given an older roster); and (2) Nix’es presence on the roster.
Nix is of course defensively better than Ruf by a lot, and can play RF and even CF if needed, though not well. Ruff, while likely not nearly the major league hitter some people hope for, would be a better hitter than Nix. I like the idea of giving Howard some days off against lefties, and Ruf could fill in well in that role.
But given Nix’es advantages in terms of positional flexibility and defense, not to mention his contract status, I don’t see it happening. Of course Schierholz is a factor as well; I’m assuming a Mayberry (or a FA who is, like Mayberry, capable of playing CF if needed)/Schierholtz platoon in LF, a reserve catcher of course, a reserve infielder, and likely a guy like Frandsen – maybe Frandsen – who can fill in at multiple positions including third base. That wouldn’t leave room for Ruff. I guess you could dispense with a reserve who could play CF, given the presence of Brown and Nix on the roster – neither is ideal in that situation, but nor is Mayberry. But then Ruff becomes the RH half of a platoon in LF – again, I’m not seeing it, at least not with a lot more indication that he can be even adequate defensively.
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Ruf is playing LF in the Ven. Winter League, maybe even the AFL for awhile, if he can do it before the VWL begins, then we will get a better pix of his abilities out there before February..
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Ruf can also pitch, his career WHIP is 0.857. Maybe he has to pick his spots due to an old gunshot wound inflicted by a baseball groupie, but if we can stretch him out for multiple inning appearances, his bat would really play at P.
I’m joking, but sadly many posters on here are equally ridiculous even when they are being serious. Keep up the the yeomen’s work as the voice of reason around here Larry.
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Nix has a proven record of not being able to PH. He also is so bad at hitting LHP that they don’t vent let him try. Your epistle should be titled “GET RID OF NIX”.
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#34!!!!
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Coming off the bench is very hard to do.
Takes special person to be good at it.Ruf has to prove he is better than mayberry or pierre to make team as extra outfieler, especially since he cant play left field as well as mayberry or produce runs like pierre.cant see that happening
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44 runs in 328 ABs is run producing ??? The LF of Mayberry and Pierre would produce
only .051 walks/AB. Left field needs a change.
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Biggest MIL Dissapointments of 2012 (in order of magnitude and based on performance not due to injury)
1. Colvin
2. T Greene
3. J James
4. Pointer
5. H-Mart
6. Eldemire
7. Walding
8. D-Mitch
9. May
10. Hudson
11. Garner
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May is 9? Probably number 1 for me. Although I haven’t given up on him. He’s been better lately and can still finish the season strong.
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A couple of days ago we trashed Law on the Org ranking appearing in the Future Power Rankings. It turns out he did write the small blurb but the farm ranking is a composite of rankings by Law, Buster Olney, and Jim Bowden. So while Law may have been low it was not his specific ranking of the team.
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I’m probably wasting my breath, and, in order not to waste TOO much breath, I’ll just sketch out the argument. But those few people who don’t know why minor league batting averages mean little, but who are ALSO intelectually curious and possess some reasoning ability, here we go:
As I said, two seperate issues here, evaluative and peridictive. In terms of using batting averages to evaluate players, I’d rank it higher than I would for predictive pruposes. But it has been proven beyond any doubt – fact, not opinion – that other stats such as OBP and SLG are more important than BA when answering the key question in evaluating hitters – how much does the hitter contribute to scoring runs.
Question: who is a better hitter this year:
Player A .241/.357/.527
Player B .308/.339/.362
it’s obviously the former, by a lot, despite 67 less points in BA. (Jose Bautista vs. Ben Revere)
Now, predictive: the key reason that using batting average as a predictive stat for minor leaguers is poor is that, compared to other stats (K rate, BB rate, HR rate, just to name 3), it take MANY more plate appearances for BA to become statistically meaningful as a predictive stat. Now, I could spend many paragraphs explaining just what that means, but let’s just compare some stats. K rate beceomes meaningful almost ten times faster than BA, BB rate more than five times as quickly, and home run rate about 4 times as quickly as BA. For BA, a full year is a small sample size.
On top of that, of course, there are many reasons why minor league stats don’t translate directly to major league stats, most of which (for hitters) are related to the level of competition. Of course, this is an issue for ANY stat, and is one of the many reasons to put some weight on the opinions of the “experts.”
There’s plenty more where this came from if your interested; google is your friend. None of it “opinion,” all hard fact.
One would think that the roughly 1,000 times over the past 3 years on this forum where people have jumped to conclusions based upon SSS batting averages, just to be proven wrong by future events, might change some minds, but apparently not.
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Nice post Larry and I do agree with you for the most part.
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Since power is age related in most player your arguement hold water only for older prospects at higher levels. Phenoms excepted.
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sorry “holds”
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Pretty ballsy of Schwimer not to report to Lehigh since his demotion
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Sore elbow…needs another doctor’s opinion.
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Yeah but there is a stream of articles coming out, looks like someone is trying to make him look bad
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I hope this doesn’t get lost in the general discussion, but I don’t want to derail the daily discussion.
On Ruf: with all of the words spent on him, it’s ironic that his fans have mostly avoided stating (a) what they want the Phillies do do with him, specifically, beyond bringing him up for a look next month; (b) what they are expecting from him, performance wise, in the majors. More specifically:
(1) When/if they bring him up next month, do you want him to be a bench guy? Play LF regularly? 1B regularly and bench Howard? 1B platoon?
(2) What are your hopes/expectations for next season among the above 4 options?
(3) What do you guys see his reasonable upside being?
Let me put my own markers down: I am on record of thinking that he might have a role off the bench next year, plus giving Howard a rest against some lefties – assuming his LF defense is at least adequate. As a practical matter, that would probably mean ditching Nix. That said, if he were to play every day – problematic as he is blocked at 1B, and all reports of his defense suggest that he will be pretty bad in LF – his upside … well, let’s start with his MLE:
.261/.337/.483 with 27 HR, assuming 540 PA.
That’s pretty darn impressive, though keep in mind that you need to combine that with likely well below average defense in LF – no one – well, no one reasonable – denies that he would be below average in LF defensively, the question only being how much below average.
But is the MLE a good estimate? Here’s where the age factor kicks in. A young guy, you assume that he will (eventually) better his MLE as he continues to improve. An older guy, you can’t assume that – I would say that the above is a ceiling for Ruf. And a ceiling he might not reach. The scouting reports do give me some pause as to how transferable his performance would be to major league pitching. So … my estimate … if he did get to play full time in the majors, and things broke right for him … maybe .250/.325/.460. For a poor fielding LF, that’s marginal.
But that’s from a me, a skeptic. What do his fans think? Come on, put your markers on the table.
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I mentioned this in the other thread, but let me puts some numbers out there regarding Ruf at 1B versus LF – yes, I’ll use advanced metrics, but for a question like this they do a good job at quantifying subjective opinions.
Per fangraphs, the positional value of a 1B is about 4 runs per year less than a LF. About 1/2 a win.
But poor fielding left fielders, over the course of a year, are between 10 and 20 runs per year below average. Let’s make the assumption that Ruf is “only” 10 runs a year below average as left fielder. If that’s the case, and if he is an average first baseman as a fielder, he projects better as a first baseman by about 1/2 a win (6 runs).
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I realize that the problem likely is that this is in the general thread, and people likely aren’t checking it, but I would be honestly curious to see some answers to these questions among Ruf’s fans. The irony here is that, if I was the general manager of a team that had a real hole at first base, I’d probably be on the phone to Amaro right now. But in the real world of major league baseball, that doesn’t seem to be how things work for a player like Ruf.
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The Phillies seriously need to shut down Worley. It seems pretty obvious that his elbow issues are causing him to pitch poorly and it’s time to see what they have in Cloyd. I say shut down Worley and let Cloyd pitch in the 5 spot for the whole month of September.
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