Box Score Recap 8-21-2012

Box Score Recap

Dylan Cozens with his 3rd HR in his last 7 games.  His BB and K rates, as well as his BA, OBP, and SLG are all down in August.  His LD % is down to 10% for the month, compared with 19% and 21% the previous two months, (June is a very small sample).  His August BABIP is .216, due, in what I would guess is large part, to that low LD %.  Not making solid contact and not getting many breaks otherwise. 

One would hope he would lean on his previously good plate discipline, (walk rates of 7.7% in August, after 15.2% and 14.0% the previous two months), but it seems like maybe he’s trying to swing his way out.  Impossible to tell for sure from the stats.  Someone go ask him.  Go ahead.  Just walk right up.  Don’t be intimidated.  He’s only 6’6″ 235 lbs.  Not scary at all.

I added the GCL box to the graphic.  Sorry I missed it the first time through.

LV1  LV2  REA  CLR ppd LKW  WIL1  WIL2  GCL  DSL

186 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 8-21-2012”

  1. I went to the Reading game last night went to the Reading game last night with my 3 month old, wife and two other kids. We had a blast, but decided to leave around 9, or after the 5th inning…so FWIW, here’s my impressions.

    Colvin has a long ways to go, I think he still belongs in A ball, I do not remember him throwing anything other than a fastball for a strike. As for his fastball, I was expecting more, in the early innings, he sat from 88-91 and touched 93 on occasion. He really seems to sling the ball as well, and I noticed a detectable change in his delivery when he’d throw a breaking ball.

    The position players were a whole different story, the ball made a noticeably louder sound when Gillies, Asche, and Castro made contact, like I said, with 3 kids I couldn’t watch every second of action, but when those 3 made contact, I knew about it. Asche’s first homer was a no doubt line shot that nearly hit the target under the RF scoreboard, then he hit a double to the LCF gap. I was just really impressed by what I saw of him, although I think he really benefits by hitting ahead of Ruf. He saw lots of fastballs from Wang.

    Gillies just looks like he knows how to hit, he also beat out an IF single and showed no sign of favoring his legs afterwards. He hit another ball down the line where the 1B made a nice play on and probably robbed him of a triple.

    Leandro Castro also made an impression on me, he’s got a very strong arm from RF, he made a one hop throw from the RF bullpen to 3B on a line, he also really hit the ball hard and looks to have a nice level line drive stroke. He displayed good speed too on legging out a double between the RF and CFers and tracking down several hard hit balls off Gas Can Colvin.

    Tommy Joseph didn’t really stand out to me, he did draw a walk, but didn’t really hit the ball that hard or show the quick bat that I saw from Castro, Gillies and Asche. Ruf’s heroics came after I’d already left, so I don’t have much to report on him, other than his build suggests a first basemen and not an outfielder

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    1. Was Ruf in LF last night? If so, how’d he look?

      Great report, further confirmation of the studlyness of Asche right now, his power showing up this year is nearly as big of a deal as his quick moves up the minor league system. Really exciting to watch.

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      2. Reading the box above…he started in LF and went to 1b in the 9th and Myers came in as a def rep.

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        1. You must not have read it too close. Myers went in to run for Jake Fox who had played 1B, and since they needed a 1B they moved Ruf there and Myers went to LF.

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          1. Sarcasm uncalled for … the post answered the question as to whether Ruf played LF. The details you presented are meaningless and the shot about not reading too close was not necessary.

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      3. of all the hard hit balls to the OF, there weren’t any hit to Ruf. I do believe that you’ve got to have a real good CF who can help cover some area in LCF if you’re going to survive with Ruf out there.

        His right handed bat is needed, so I’d be all for an extended September audition

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  2. Were we really concerned about Asche about a month ago? At this point, the guy seems to have mastered AA. Yowza

    – Jeff

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      1. I’m looking forward to more scouting reports from the national guys, to help us interpret what his stats mean. I’m sure those will be coming soon now that he’s putting up numbers at a high level.

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      2. the K% is a concern, but I’m more excited about the rather sudden increase in ISO then I am concerned about the k’s. And as important as it is to note the SSS, those 9 HR’s aren’t going to become 8 HR’s over the next 100 Ab’s… (though I imagine his HR’s per AB will not maintin it’s current pace, I can’t imagine it will just fall off a cliff either).

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        1. I haven’t looked at asche’s home road splits so I might be wrong, but Reading inflates power numbers.

          I invite someone who knows better than I to confirm or reject this hypothesis

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          1. Home/Road is pretty much identical

            Home: .293/.343/.489
            Away: .282/.343/.500

            It’s his left/right splits that are a bit troubling. SSS but he’s got a .652 OPS in 62 ABs against lefties and a .912 OPS against righties in 154 ABs

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      3. And he’s still not making appearances on Baseball America’s daily Prospect Report, but he’ll force his way on there at some point if he can keep it going. He could have gotten prospect hitter of the day if they had actually listed him.

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      4. I’m not so sure SSS counts at this point for Reading. Besides if you look at his combined numbers, they’re definitely worth getting excited about (837 OPS on the year). Yeah, I’d like him to strike out a bit less and walk some more, but he’s been raking for pretty much the whole year so I’m going with the “ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mindset

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        1. K rate has come down in August, maybe after his adjustments to the AA level. June/July saw a 24.6% K rate … August is 18.1%.

          Lots to be excited about.

          As for SSS, I thought I remember reading that 150 ABs is statistically significant. If that is true, Asche with 213 ABs is well beyond the SSS

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          1. It depends upon (1) what your standard is for statistical significance, and (2) which stats we are talking about. 150 AB tells you basically nothing about batting average.

            Of course complicating things for Asche is playing over 2 levels. But certainly we have enough data to tell us a few things. His 213 AB in Reading are enough to demonstrate that his power surge is “real” – but to what extent that will translate to the majors is an open question. Similarly, his BB and K data is significant – though that’s a mixed bag, as that data, while solid for a guy who has been basically triple jumped, is not as outstanding as his triple slash numbers. But the fact that he is batting over .300 over 2 levels doesn’t tell us much at all about his major league BA. Looking at his K%, HR%, LD rate etc., he does not project as a .300 hitter in the majors, or even particularly close to that. Of course he COULD develop into one, but given his current skills set, projection NORMAL development of those skills, he does not look like a .300 hitter.

            FYI, studies of major league players show that we need 2 full years of data (over 1000 AB) for batting average to become statistically significant, significance here being defined as the point where you can accurately project future performance by adding 1/2 of actual BA to 1/2 the league BA. Less than 2 years of data, and the league BA is a better predictor of future performance than the actual BA. I suspect that for minor league players, even 2 years of data would be less significance, for a host of reasons that I do not have time to get into at the moment.

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  3. The Gillies, Ruf Asche show marches on…. Nice to see Castro getting in on the fun… Cant wait to see them all in LHV next season, i live in Louisville and willl be able to go see them when here….

    If they arent going to bring up CLoyd ever, they have to start looking at PETTIBONE, wow, 4-0, 1.69 ERA… kid is dealing…

    Franco still on a tear!! 3B and C now strong positions for system..

    Larry Greene back at it, W’ port, good hitting in middle of lineup …..

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    1. Pettibone has been getting good results but his BBs are a bit up in AAA. 3.6 BB/9 is too high for a sinker ball pitcher.

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  4. Looks like the GCL box didn’t make it from the link stage to the printed overhead stage.

    Looked it up anyhow, Yacksel Rios pitched just 1/3 of an inning yet gave up something like 3 hits 2 runs, 2 earned runs,like that. That would seem to discredit some of the pitching style counting stats, and some will make the leap from some are lesser in meaning to claiming that all such stats are so. As for Rios, I believe he has much better control and command than last season. Given another trip to the Instructional League, he might get back in good graces and notice in the next season.

    WPT- Cameron Perkins coming on lately, looks like maybe a factor at 3B-1B-OF-DH or whatever, next season. Might be messing up some peoples edicts at who goes where next season.

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    1. Lakewood is going to need all the experienced bats it can handle next year, so while I think he and Serritella can handle CLW, I believe it is likely that they both start in LWD. Other option might be keep Carmona in LWD and move one of Seritella/Perkins up to CLW.

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  5. What an amazing day on the farm, Larry Green continues to impress, 4 for 7 and a walk, Quinn with another SB, Franco goes 3 for 4, and then you get to Reading. This team is an offensive juggernaught. The top 3 in that lineup are the best 1, 2, 3 combo in probably the minor leagues. (from an output perspective).

    Updated top 5:
    1. Biddle
    2. Asche
    3. Franco
    4. Joesph
    5a. Valle
    5b. Morgan

    And I might add, numbers 2 through 6 (or 5b as I call it) are all really close for me and the remainder of the year could yet again change my rankings.

    Biddle’s longer “plus” track record, excellent scouting reports, and consistancy across levels and months, is why he’s #1. He doesn’t profile as an Ace, but I think he can be a good 2 or stunning 3.

    Asche because of his metioric rise though the system and dramatic increase in production at each level higher, profile really well for his future.

    And Franco above Joesph becuase while I like joesph’s projection as much as the next guy, I actually think his profile is more “projection based” then just about anyone else in our system above A+, and I’m not entirely comfortable with him yet. (In short, he’s only at 5 because scouts told me he’s great, had a good year last year, though not this year, and is quite young for his level).

    Valle is at 5a becuase while he’s more polished then Joesph, and is probably equally athletic, I’m really having a hard time swallowing the lack of walks.

    Morgan at 5b because his command looks elite, he’s moved 2 levels in his first year in full season, and his K rates in clearwater were great. He looks to me like a 2/3/4 (the reason for the large gap there is because we’ve only had him for 200 IP, and that’s a fairly small sample size). That said, I think there is a 70% chance he’s going to be a fixture as a starter at the major league level, the question is his ceiling.

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    1. I’m just a fan as the next, but 1,2,3 in the minor leagues is a strong statement. Stats don’t lie though! keep them coming.

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    2. It’s not just the walks with Valle. His K-rate has increased at each level too:

      A – 20.8
      A+ – 23
      AA – 25.2
      AAA – 32.7 (SS)

      That’s especially bad for someone who doesn’t walk. The walks have been moving south too. The trendline is not encouraging.

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  6. Andrew Pullin should be getting a little more hype from us. His small sample not with standing has my attention 400+OBP/835OPS/317AVG in 146 PA’s. Zach Green is also another young High Schooler putting up solid numbers.

    Cozens gets most of the hype and he should but don’t sleep on the other two!

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    1. I agree, I think becuase he didn’t have as much draft hype (a HSer taken in the 5th round), people are a little slow to recognise him. Thanks for pointing this out, I’m going to go re-read his draft day scouting reports. 🙂

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  7. Asche is on a major roll, if the Phillies decide to keep Frandsen around for another season at 3rd base, and Asche if he continues his current pace, could be the Phillies 3rd basemen 2014. I can’t say enough about Frandsen, I was at the Phillies game last night and he made an amazing defensive play at 3rd. He actually got a 30 second standing ovation from the crowd.

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    2. Not real big on Asche, but if he is sent to AFL and gets the full load at 3B (some say WSN will want Anthony Rendon to play 3B there, but I say 2B) then he can start the season at AAA and move to MLB before the complete season is finished . Maybe as soon as a month into the season.

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      2. Why arent you big on Asche? He got Utley type potential at third. Short quick line drive stroke, relentless worker, etc.

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        1. Well for the 3B position I’m more inclined to favor a home run type of power hitter. That might be more than you can get in this case, especially on short notice. Also prefer a Right Handed Hitter as they are less prone to being neutralized by pitchers going R-R on them. Also ,in the Philly team’s case , it looks like they developing a critical mass of LH hitters in the short term.

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            1. Keep in mind, we have not needed as much power at 3rd because we had unusual power at short, 2nd and even above average at 1B. The power at all of those spots has diminished and not likely to regain the historic proportions of the mid-late 2000’s. I am not saying that I do not like Asche, just saying power at 3B might be more important with a changing of the guard at the other spots.

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          3. Asche has a .211 ISO in Reading, despite his horribad start. To put that number into context, here are some ISO’s of major league 3b: Frasier (.268), Cabrera (.259), Aramis (.221), Longoria (.200), Wright (.200), Hanley (.193), Headley (.191)

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          4. you don’t like him because he’s not right handed? Wow, there’s nothing wrong with having a team that absolutely mashes right handed pitching. I’d even argue that it’s a good thing

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          5. Easy to forget now, but Utley was a 30 HR guy in his good years. That’s not enough of a power hitter for you?

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            1. Marfis should really just go away at this point. Nobody really likes him, and he comes off as a know it all a$$.

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          6. ‘Well for the 3B position I’m more inclined to favor a home run type of power hitter….also prefer a Right Handed Hitter’…..well unfortunately, those type of players in the MLB these days happen to be big K-rate guys.

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      3. Yes whats not to like? I’d concur the sample size is still a little small to get to crazy but he has done everything you would want of a college draftee. 22 performing at AA the way he is has me excited.

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      4. AFL has 6 teams, and the manager of the Phillies and Washington organization aren’t on the same team.

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        1. Yeah, that’s right. Somebody said that Asche-Rendon thing on here and didn’t check it out before passing it on. Guess you have to look up everything before saying anything.

          For the record- Dusty Wathan is the manager (Mesa Solar Sox) and the team is shared with Mariners, Reds, Padres, and Twins.

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          1. I’ll guess someone remembers the Nats and Phils were on a team together last year and made that assumption. Not sure if they rotate every year. According to the MLB article, the Phils aren’t on the Solar Sox this year, though. They’re on the Peoria Javalinas. Long haul from Iowa to Arizona.

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            1. I think I got the Solar Sox thing from BA unless I got the columns wrong. They do rotate every year. Except that the 6 teams that have a team in the Arizona Rookie League stay at their home base , and they bring in 4 others . I think they get together pre-season and look at team needs and who plays and such.

              By the way, I wrote the comment above, but in some of the comments below were made by somebody appropriating my screen-name. I think that’s kind of a flaw in the system.

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  8. I really think the future is bright for Philly. I think Asche is a starting 3rd baseman in 2014. He might even be a starter by next years all-star break. I think it will be interesting to see what happens with gillies. If he keeps his head on straight, he could be our CF and a true lead off hitter. I think Joseph will be fine…let him repeat AA and get accustomed to the league. The problem is projecting all these guys for next year. Hopefully we have some real deal prospects cause lord knows we need them.

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  9. Franco is a hitting machine right now. In early August, when Franco was hitting about .247, someone here made a comment, that ‘if Franco could get his average up to .260 by the end of the year’, it would be a good season. He raised his avg 40 points in July. He has raised his avg 20 more points in August. At this pace, he might get to .280 by the end of the season

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    1. I couldn’t agree more. At the trade deadline all the excitement surrounded Mike Olt and that the Phillies should trade for him. Last I looked Olt is hitting .222 with 0 homeruns.
      I am very satisfied to wait for Franco and Asche, which looking at both players it should not be long

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  10. If Asche and Gillies continue this thru winterball, do they get a serious look at Spring Training???

    Pettibone also??

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    1. Gillies I would move to AAA, Asche I would keep him with the big club until the very last day of spring training getting half of the position AB’s. I’d then send him down to AAA, and tell him “If you excel in AAA, there’s a good chance you’ll be starting in philly by the end of June.

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    2. Short answer is no. Somewhat longer answer:

      Asche – I retain my belief that he won’t be ready till 2014 and won’t get a serious look in spring training next year. But given his progress, along with the limited options at third for next year, IF at mid season the third base spot is a gaping hole through injury or ineffectiveness, and IF Asche is playing well, then a mid season promotion is possible. I wouldn’t count on it, or, more to the point, wish for it, since it would essentially mean a failure of the team’s first option for 2013.

      Gillies – no. Not in spring training, and not during the year. And I say this as a big fan. I was one of his biggest boosters when he was acquired and remained more optimistic than some through the injuries. But at this point, I think he is less than 50% likely to EVER be a big league regular, and, if he does become one, we’re looking at 2014 at best. Let’s hope he has a healthy and productive season next year in AA and AAA.

      Pettibone also doesn’t have a shot of making the team out of spring training, barring injuries to starting pitchers. However, he is probably the most likely of these three players to get a relatively early call up when/if injuries strike.

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      1. I do want to make very clear that, for Asche especially, even if we assume he is more likely to be an “average” major league player rather than a star, it’s very exciting to think that he might solve the third base problem for half a decade – he or Franco – at a low cost. Even an average third baseman, over the course of his pre-FA years, is going to generate tens of millions of dollars of excess value.

        I’m not firmly in the “play the kids” camp, both because (a) generally, you are wasting one of the advantages of a high payroll team like the Phillies to ignore free agency, and (b) specifically, the current Phillies’ farm system isn’t filled with good major league ready prospects, but I do think some people around here err in the other direction. It is simply very, very hard, even with a high payroll, to win without having several “underpaid” players under team control.

        The 2008 Phillies paid a total of 27.2 milion dollars in salary for their top 6 players (by WAR), Howard, Rollins, Utley, Werth, Victorino, and Hamels. Next year they’ll pay almost that much for Cliff Lee alone.

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          1. I’m happy just to educate and inform. Certainly I don’t expect to get a response to this sort of essay, which simply contains self evident truths. It’s clear from many positive comments that these kind of posts are appreciated among the smart posters, and they are the only kind I care about. Now, I know some of my nastier posts aren’t so appreciated – ironically, they are the ones that tend to get a response.

            You, on the other hand – I can only imagine the pathetic and empty life that leads to anonymous trolling.

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            2. +1 I may not always agree with you, but for the most part we’re on the same page and I definately appreciate the rational banter.

              Cheers

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    1. Yah, I agree. I update mine preseason, midseason, trade deadline (if necessary), and end-of-season, and I already think that is too much.

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    2. Ok jerk, that’s the first time i’ve posted an “updated” top 5 since we did our winter top 30. Don’t lump me in with others.

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      1. no need for name calling it’s not just you I just don’t get the constant updates of the top 5, top 10, top 25, whatever. Wait til the end of the season, like jmb said preseason, mid and end of season can be a lot but those are the times when you have had enough time to evaluate the players. daily is just ridiculous because it changes every day.

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        1. Sorry, I’ve got an Ax to grind with a different “anonomous” poster apparently and I assumed you were him/her/it. I understand your logic.The point of my post was more to say, our top guys are really doing well and there’s a lot to be excited about. It’s why I stopped at 5 instead of going right on down the line. The last 2 weeks have been particularly cruicial to those players in the top 5 (as opposed to the entire top 30). Of course, nothing is set in stone, but I wouldn’t say things are so fluid as they change day to day. Asche’s last 3 weeks really do have a significant impact on how I percieve him going forward. His performance in AA has now equalized. Do I view him as a 400/500/800 hitter? No, of course not, but I also don’t view him as a .200/.220/300 hitter either (as he was for his first half of his AA at bats).

          Also, if you could pick a screen name I’d appreciate it, I didn’t intend to lash out undeservingly at you but there are far to many “unknown” posters here.

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    3. Its a fluid situation — a 2 week hot streak can alter a season line quite a bit to make a big difference in ranks.

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      1. Just stop it nik. I read your dribble everyday. 2 weeks does NOT greatly change how a prospect is viewed over an entire season. You were one of the first to jump on the Cozens bandwagon by giving daily updates of what he did at the plate. After he began to cool off, I haven’t a peep about him from you.

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        1. So why do you bother reading daily comment threads? That’s what we do here, discuss hot and cold prospects. Go check the dictionary for ‘dribble’, you probably had a different word in mind.

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        4. I, who have had that screen-name for some time, did not write that comment. Someone appropriated that screen-name. I know the difference between dribble and drivel. I don’t think in that way or communicate in that style. I also seldom address someone by screen-name.

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  12. Remember, like 2 weeks ago, when we were saying “If Asche keeps this up, he could finish the year with a solid .260 in AA”.

    Silly hot.

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    1. Yeah I remember saying that. It’s just absurd what he’s doing right now. Next year will be the true test, though, I guess. The good thing is from all accounts he sounds like a guy who will continue to put in the hard work to be successful. We just need to see him do it over a longer period of time. 1 year is nice, 2 is better.

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  13. Say the phils were to deal some prospects this winter, who would you rather they keep Asche or Franco? Right now I’d lean slightly toward Franco but it becomes an interesting ceiling/proximity to the big club debate.

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      2. Neither would give you anything of value. I’m not sure that Colvin could even be considered a real prospect at this point. He’s had two straight years of pretty horrible performance.

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  14. Ok Top 10!
    1. Franco- Hit, Power, field , throw, Young
    2. Biddle- best pitching prospect in System.
    3. Valle- like better then Joseph
    4. Pettibone- 2nd best pitching prospect
    5. Asche- Kid Can Hit
    6. Joseph- comp for Hunter Pence
    7. Bonilla- Lets not Forget our futures game selection
    8. May- Benifit of Doubt
    9. Quinn- toolsy having good 1st year
    10. Tocci- hitting .300 as a 16 year old in GCL

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  15. Hey all – I just added the GCL box to the graphic. All that time I spent thinking about Dylan Cozens and I forgot to show the game that inspired it. -1 to me.

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    1. But major props for doing this every day … thanks for your dilligence with that and also your thoughtful and humorous words.

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      2. I was so upset at Kyle Simon’s line. Colvin was actually better than I was expecting (sad), after seeing Gregg tweet about it early on. Either way, it’s up now.

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  16. From ESPN where the Phillies are ranked 22nd in future rankings:

    KLAW ranks us as the 24 best minor league system:

    The System
    Repeated losses of first-round picks for signing free agents and relatively meager signing budgets in the draft and internationally have led to the decline over the past few years of this system, which has also suffered this year from steps backward from starters Trevor May and Brody Colvin.– Keith Law

    So Colvin steps back and no mention of breakouts from Asche/Morgan/Franco as well as the trade acquisitions.

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        1. He’s not a Biddle hater. He’s just realistic about him unlike most of the posters here.

          He had similar opinions on both Carrasco and Drabek despite the widespread sentiment on PP that each was destined for stardom when they were in our system.

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      2. Let’s take a step back and think this through. Might it be possible, that even though our system seems to have improved, everyone else’s systems (which were already better than ours) improved as well? I mean how well do you guys really know other teams systems?

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        1. At face value that’s a rational statement. But from my perspective, given promotions, flame outs, and the like, it is equally as likely a system will improve as it will degenerate. Given that, the quality of the average minor league roster should be fairly static on a year to year basis from the blue chippers down to org filler. The bottom line is I believe this system, as it stands today, is significantly improved over what we had last winter, and it really isn’t even close. And that, in and of itself is why I disagree with KLAW on this particular point. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t have the phillies system in the top 10. But I think a high teen ranking would be more appropriate given the above logic and the “starting point” in the winter which I believe was also in the mid-20’s.

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            2. Just eyeballing his early season rankings I would say that these systems dropped behind with their graduations/trades and our acquisitions:
              Tigers – Turner is gone
              Brewers – Segura will have graduated and their first round picks have stepped back
              Mets – Harvey has graduated
              Nationals – Harper gone, Rendon and Purke disappointing
              Angels – Pretty much empty after trades and Trout gone
              Braves – Delgado graduated, Vizciano traded

              I think the Astros have passed us with their trades and draft. You could argue we have passed the dodgers as well. Starting at 25 I would say that they are between 16 and 20. From comments by writers at other sites I would guess it was closer to the middle.

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          2. Why is it important where the system is ranked, and why is it always an issue that the Phillies are ranked lower than any other particular system? There is no prize for having the highest ranked system. This shouldn’t cause so many complaints every year.

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    2. I feel like we have enough depth to at least crack into the teens, although I guess I can’t say I know much about other systems.

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    3. It is a major step back, when guys like May and Colvin step back. They were considered top 100 prospects. System rankings are based mostly on the amount of high upside talent. The Phillies may not have a top 100 player in the system.

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    4. He is a big time Asche doubter i remember from his previous chats. He has never been as high on Biddle as other publications. I do think he has mentioned he likes Franco but that may be wrong. KLaw also just prizes higher potential talent than depth in a system and we have very little in terms of potential all stars and what we do have is super low in the system. I disagree with his assessment that we are 24th overall but i don’t think it is an outrageous assessment to look at our system and perceive a lack of high probability all star talent and rate the system accordingly.

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      1. The problem with system rankings are that a system could be totally barren save for 1 all-star type talent, and KLaw would skew the rankings based on the one guy. Personally, I prefer having lots of “inventory” vice 1 or 2 guys who may or may not pan out

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    5. and why in the world didn’t law mention the halladay, oswalt and pence trades as depleting the system? that’s a bigger factor than the first-round picks we’ve lost.

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    6. The lack of any mention of trades or breakouts makes me wonder when that ranking was done. Not to say I don’t think Law is low on the system, I know he was high on the Martin acquisition and is strange to see that low a ranking combined with no comment on the trades.

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    7. The major problem with us disagreeing with KLAW’s 24 ranking is that there is no one here qualified to rank the other 29 teams, so our opinions of the other major league teams means xxxx.

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      1. I can’t judge his ranking, but I sure can judge the snippet of analysis he gives, and it’s terrible.

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      2. See my post above replying to Marfis, but in short “from my perspective, given promotions, flame outs, and the like, it is equally as likely a system will improve as it will degenerate. ” (it’s like 10 posts up)

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    8. Law puts a ton of his rankings on star potential and upside. I’d not be surprised if he had Gueller, Watson, and Quinn all in his top 5.

      May and Colvin are two guys that had/have top 2-3 of the rotation stuff, and them doing awful would really hurt the system in his eyes.

      He has always been skeptical of Biddle, and was one of the only guys I noticed that didn’t have him top-100 in the mid-season.

      I like Asche/Morgan/Franco and they helped our system a ton — but I could see scouts believing that we have a decent-yet-average 3B prospect, a 3-4 starter, and a solid-but-not huge tools 3b in low-A.

      A guy like Callis, who despite is very low on May, would have our system a lot higher as he is a much bigger fan of Biddle, Morgan, Asche, and Franco.

      Like

      1. Sickels will have the system even higher than Callis. He loves proximity over tools. I can see him rating Asche, Morgan and Hernandez higher than everybody else.

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          1. Guy’s, We had 5 players and 7 from our org at one time . You can’t be shocked that we don’t have a top 100 player. While we were selling they were still developing players. whining isn’t going to help.

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        2. I some time back seen a write-up by Sickels in which he clearly stated he saw Cesar Hernandez as a utility player. Apparently that qualifies as a great write-up to some people including that which lurks below.

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    9. He is right-on concerning the the past meager international signing monies’ allocations. But that should change from here on into the future with the new CBA rules in place and possible draft being still being bantered around.

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  17. Last year didn’t Asche play second? It would be huge to get his numbers out of a second baseman. Maybe when he makes it to the majors, have him play third until Franco is ready. Then Utley can retire, Asche can move to second, and Franco can play third.

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      1. Have you adjusted it on your “defensive value” chart as well?

        (As in C, SS, CF, 3B, 2B, RF, LF, 1B)

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        1. To me 2nd and 3rd are almost interchangable. Guys with more range play 2nd, guys with better arms go to 3rd.

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    1. Yes, the unthinkable has happened, as Tyler Greene now has a higher batting average than Walding. However, Walding still has a better OBP, as Greene only draws a walk every 25 ABs or so.

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  19. Year End Phillies Org Bottom 10

    1. Anthony Hewitt – A Black & Decker tool shed floating on a lake made of chainsaws.
    2. Vacant
    3. Eric Valent – Probably has something left in the tank. Great smile.
    4. Tuffy Gosewisch – “A cornerstone of the franchise. He will be here, cleaning the Iron Pigs’ clubhouse bathroom, for many years to come.” – RAJ, five minutes before selling Tuffy to the Russians. RAJ is a dick.
    5. J.D. Durbin – “Real Deal”. Has a rosin bag above his toilet. Gamer.
    6. Ugueth Urbina – Under contract to do FX for the next Michael Bay film, but the bidding is competitive in the Venezuelan prison system. And soapy.
    7. Darin Ruf – Danny Almonte without the positional flexibility.
    8. Tom McCarthy – Like Ty Wigginton, is too fat and drunk to play regularly. Org filler, but will carry Wheels’ colostomy bag without complaint.
    9. Tomas Perez – Nightshift supervisor at the Weis Market in Conshohocken.
    10. Matt Rizzotti – Never charged with treason. That’s the only positive we have on him.

    Sleeper: Jim Rushford – once appeared as HOF slugger “Jim Blowme” in a low-intensity pornographic film. Can’t hit a curveball.

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  21. Where’s the love for Darin Ruf today after he just hit a tiebreaking homerun in the nineth inning yesterday? No. 32,by the way.But since he doesn’t stand a chance of helping our big league team,(some peoples opinion,But NOT mine) What does it matter.

    For you stat gurus, How many players in all of the miner leagues hit 35 homeruns or more,or had 100 run batted in Last year? Year 2011

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    1. Pretty hard to get stats on miner leagues. But then, I’m pretty mainstream . . . I don’t really follow “underground” baseball.

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    2. I set the threshold at 30HR, I am ignoring RBI since it is entirely context dependent and has zero bearing on the skill of the batter.
      Name – Age (lvl) – HR – avg/obp/slg
      Darin Ruf (1B/LF?) – 26 (AA) – 32HR – .311/.402/.599
      Matt Adams (1B) – 22 (AA) – 32HR – .300/,357/.566
      Ian Gac (1B) – 25 (A+) – 33HR – .279/.358/.535
      Tim Wheeler (OF) – 23 (AA) – 33HR – .287/.365/.535
      Corey Dickerson (OF) – 22 (A-) – 32HR – .282/.356/.629
      Alex Liddi (3B) – 22 (AAA) – 30HR – .259/.332/.488
      Ryan Lavarnway (C) – 23 (AA/AAA) – 32HR – .290/.376/.563
      Jai Miller (OF) – 26 (AAA) – 32HR – .276/.368/.588
      Jorge Vazquez (1B) – 29 (AAA) – 32HR – .262/.314/.516
      Yazy Arbelo (1B) – 23 (A) – 31HR – .247/.361/.516
      Tyler Moore (1B) – 24 (AA) – 31HR – .270/.314/.532
      Neftali Soto (1B) – 22 (AA/AAA) – 31HR – .278/.333/.576
      Michael Bianucci (1B) – 25 (AA) – 30HR – .243/.302/.469
      Bryce Brentz (OF) – 22 (A/A+) – 30HR – .306/.365/.574
      Michael Choice (OF) – 21 (A+) – 30 HR – .285/.376/.542
      Paul Goldschmidt (1B) – 23 (AA) – 30 HR – .306/.435/.626 (This line is just disgusting and only in 366 AB)

      As you can see there are some prospects but not a lot, I will let others draw their conclusions

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      2. He’s second in OPS to Paul Goldschmidt, and yes, pauls line/age are rediculous. Especially all those walks.

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    3. Luis Terrero who was 31 at the time and a career minor leaguer. Doesn’t help to build your case at all.

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  22. Nice rebound start for Trevor May in this afternoon’s matinee. Struck out five of the last six batters he faced in the 6th and 7th innings.

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    1. Yeah his line is 7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 9 K. He’s been doing a bit better of late but the walks are still up there.

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    2. I was pumped too by this result, until I looked at the opposing lineup. It is unimpressive except for Rendon, who just happened to do very well against May. I’m glad May had a great start, but perhaps a grain of salt is needed.

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  23. got a question answered on the BA chat

    Tom B (NJ): Maikel Franco has put up some pretty staggering post All Star numbers (.335/.392/.537/.929) as a 19 year old in Lo-A. Reports I’ve heard are his glove is solid as well. What are your thoughts on him and does he have any chance at being a top 100 player this year? Thanks.

    Jim Callis: I don’t think I’d put him on the Top 100 but he’s one of the best prospects in the Phillies system. The bat is promising and he’s a solid defender at third base.

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    2. When “one of the best in the Phillies system” wont crack the Top 100, that shows why our system is ranked so low.

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      1. On average, there will be only 3 top-100 players within an organization. I don’t think its saying anything harsh on the system to say that Franco doesn’t crack the top-100, especially since he isn’t top-3 in our own system.

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        1. Agree with this- I think the bigger problem in our system is that we’re unlikely to have a top-50 prospect in most opinions.

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  24. 2 other phillies releated questions. Santana May come back to Bite!

    joe (texas): Domingo Santana is hitting well @ hitter friendly CAL league @ 19 years old. does he have a chance to be Astros RF in 2014?

    Jim Callis: That’s a bit early but he is Houston’s right fielder of the future.

    Kyle (Philly): What’s gone wrong with Trevor May this season, if you could summarize?

    Jim Callis: Same old bugaboo for May. He has fine stuff, but he doesn’t control or command it well enough. Never been a huge fan, see him as a reliever and don’t trust him to be a closer or maybe even a set-up man.

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    1. Ouch, Callis. Hatin’ on May. His assessment seems pretty fair at this point. I am not sold on May moving up to AAA next spring. Just wonder if it’s a better benefit to risk him losing a little confidence by being held back. Could be helpful to keep him in a familiar place and let him work out the kinks there, especially since there’s almost no way they call on him for the majors in 2013 without some sort of miraculous turn-around.

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      1. ouch on santana, too. jonathan singleton and jarred cosart were more than enough for pence, but to allow the astros to select santana as the PTBNL was a boneheaded move by amaro.

        it’s encouraging to see the breakouts of players like asche, morgan and franco, but i think the national analysts are right in that the phillies’ system lacks elite prospects at the moment. they were all traded away in the past few years. it takes time to recover from that.

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    2. Oh, Santana is Houston’s RF of the future? You mean they rate him above Brian Bogusevic and J. D. Martinez and those guys?

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      1. Jon Mayo, MLB.com, has him rated at 13th in the Astros top twenty, he does not rate the other two, unless they are already not eligible anymore as prospects. Interestingly, he has 3 former Phillies prospects in the top five…Singleton (1st), Cosart (2nd) and Villar at 5.

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        1. I think that was kind of an attempt at sarcasm as those guys are OF’s on the current team. And the question was about the RF of the future so that would include them.

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  25. I thought it would be interesting to look at the minor league careers of last years MVP and runner up. One drafted in the 1st round the other in the 6th round.

    The 1st rounder had 864 PA’s, .313/.375/.948 the 6th round guy had 1609 PA’s .314/.362/.885 before being called up. Gillies after 1388 PA’s is .306/.397/.828 if he’s not ready he’s darn close. And I’m not saying Gillies is a future MVP. I am saying it wouldn’t be a stretch to see him starting in CF at some point next season.

    Then I look at Hanley Ramirez’s age 19 Season in the Sally .275/.327/.730 and think maybe Franco could be somewhere in between those players. However Hanley’s graph took off after his age 19 season

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    1. Most of Gillies stats were accumulated playing in an arcade league. Additionally, there is a *huge* difference between a .828 OPS and a .885 OPS, let alone .948.

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  26. In non Phillies prospect news, Billy Hamilton has stolen his 147th base of the year. That’s just insane. How great would it be if Roman Quinn can even remotely approach that level.

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  27. I think with Ruf it will come down to if the Phillies think he can play LF. I keep seeing in the posts that they are running him out there, but I have not heard anything in detail as to how he is doing. Can he be any worse than what I have seen in LF this year Wiggington, Mayberry, Brown, Pierre?

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    1. Are there any stats that adjust OPS for stealing 2nd base? (i.e. guy singles and steals 2nd adjust OPS to reflect double). I’ve not seen anything… but I think it is quantifiable.

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      1. wOBA is a stat that takes into account both stolen bases and times caught stealing. Some thought was put into developing wOBA, whereas a lazy man lacking in quant skills came up with OPS.

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      2. You could add steals to toal bases if you like and re-calculate SLG and call it something, then add it to OBP for an OPS-like figure. Not sure if anyone thinks that’s a valuable stat, but it adds steals to offensive production which seems to be what you’re looking for. Also, probably should take off for CS and pick-offs in that case.

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        1. I often look at OPS because that’s what Baseball Reference uses, and I prefer their presentation of data over FanGraphs, which uses wOBA. If BRef would start using wOBA and FanGraphs would improve how they present data, wOBA could and should replace OPS in popularity.

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      3. First of all, lack of inclusion of steals (and CS) is not even close to the biggest flaw of OPS.* The biggest flaw by far is that merely adding OBP and SLG gives too much weight to slugging percentage and not enough weight to OBP. OPS also manages to ignore, underweight or overweight some other batting events, but simply weighting OBP and SLG properly would make OPS much more accurate.

        OBA is a more accurate metric, not primarily because of SB and CS, but because of proper weighting. Really, though, it is rather uncanny how closely OPS and OBA track each other; e.g., there are 4 qualifying batters this season with OPS of exactly .806; their OBA are fairly closely bunched also, from .342 to .355, with three of them clustered between .342 and 347. Unsurprisingly, the player with the best OBP is also the player with the best OBA among the four.

        *Though Supra is wrong regarding the SABR perspective on steals; it’s true that, players who have a less than 67% success rate (roughly) shouldn’t be stealing, and that players who are not much above 67% are not contributing much value through those steals, even if they steal a lot of bases. But guys stealing at a 75% plus clip actually contribute significant value. However, a single plus a double is NOT the equivalent of a double, even ignoring the risk of a CS, since a double has more runner advancement value than a single. Roughly (this varies depending upon context) a single plus a steal has about 81% of the value of a double.

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        1. You are right on mostly.

          3 1/2 SBs are about equal to a single under the wOBA weighting system. A single plus an SBS equal 90% of a double for the reasons you state.

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    2. He looks better than Wig. Probably a Pierre equal. It better be routine. Haven’t seen if he fears the wall. I don’t see anything wrong with his physic. Some people have written him off. He is much trimmer than earlier in his career.

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  28. I’m not sure steals are considered a significant metric from a saber perspective. Most “true” stat-heads would prefer players not steal bases.

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    1. See above regarding SB.

      I’m going to illustrate the above point, but let me first say that I’m kind of shocked that no one in the major leagues has even 40 SB so far this season.

      So, the illustration: MLB SB leader Mike Trout has 39 SB and only 4 CS. Those steals, even considering the CS, have generated about 7 extra runs for his team.

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      1. Isnt that about 1 Win of value then…just from SB? IIRC, the calcuation is roughly 8 runs above average per Win

        On a side note, Trout looks like a guy that might challenge the mythical 50 HR/50 SB mark at some point in the next few seasons. Best young player I’ve ever seen play.

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        1. Close. One win is ~10 runs. .7 WAR just from stealing bases is extremely good. Especially when you consider everything else Trout does (and does well). It’s scary to think what he might become in a couple more years…

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    2. Yeah a Larry broke it down really well. The short version is that steals are generally overvalued as a stat, but steals are a still a good thing if your caught stealing percentage is low(the Phillies have been one of the best in baseball for several years).

      It’s a big reason(among others) why stat heads felt that Juan Pierre was a bad signing. His CS% had been in decline(last year he stole 27 but was caught 17). But he’s turned that part of his game around this year(31SB 5CS).

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    3. That is a misrepresentation of what ‘”true” state-heads’ believe. Advanced metrics suggest that unless you can steal at a 75%-80% or better success rate it is counter productive to steal. The Phillies have been great on the basepaths this decade. As a team they tend to fall into the 80% or higher success rate. No one would criticize that.

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      1. I’m actually fairly certain the cut-off for a “productive” base stealer is ~71%. No one would realistically expect any player to consistently steal bases at an 80% clip (although apparently the Phils are great at breeding those kind of players). And stat heads have never said that no one should steal, so that suggests that your numbers are a bit high.

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      2. You are way off. I’ve never seen any metrics even close tot hat.

        The break even point varies depending upon how many runs are being scored – it’s lower in a low run environment, higher in a high run environment. Researchers also come up with slightly (only slightly) different estimates depending upon how they look at the data. For 2011 wOBA, the break point is exactly what I first posted: 67%. For linear weights, or at least the version of linear weights that I found on a quick google, the break even point is 63%.

        It’s true that the benfits are small until you get to the 75% plus range, but it is still a net positive.

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  29. a I didn’t walk right and ask him but I can tell you that in Cozens only GC AB today, he hit a screamer between the first baseman and the bag. The game was during the first batter of the 3rd. Unfortunately, Watson was just starting his 3rd inning so he only went 2. It wasn’t his best outing but there definite positives. The first inning was a train wreck on defense. The first batter ground a single between short and 3rd but he went for 2 and made it (though he looked out to me). The next batter bunted and Watson threw in the dirt but Astudillo wasn’t able to scoop it. On the next batter Green threw low on an easy chopper to 3rd. So, Shane could’ve been out of the inning instead there were no outs and a runner in, After a weak pop to short, there were runners on 1st and 3rd. The runner broke from 2nd but Carmen (the catcher) tried to catch the guy off third and threw it into LF. Now 2 were in and still only 1 out, However, Watson got through with no further damage (A K on a half-hearted swing at a fastball) and a hard liner to LF that was hit into a VERY stiff breeze and was caught. In the second inning Watson sandwiched a 4 pitch walk in between two weak groundouts, but faced the minimum as he picked the runner off first.

    I have two observations on Watson. First he was very poised in the first inning when everything was collapsing around him, he stayed composed and got the last two outs. Secondly, he has an excellent pickoff move especially being a RHP. Not only did he pick a runner off of first, he had another runner picked at 2nd base and the tag was put down a bit late (the runner still may have been out). Impressively when I saw Watson’s last start, in two innings, he picked a runner off 2nd and nearly picked one off 1st as well. While I’m sure runners are less disciplined in the GCL, to have 2 pickoffs and 2 near misses in 4 IP is very impressive. The fact that he is successful at 1st base and 2nd base also shows something. Sadly, my trip to Florida ends on Friday, but I am hoping to catch Biddle’s encore performance tomorrow ngiht.

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    1. “The first inning was a train wreck on defense”

      A big reason why GCL stats should be taken with a metric ton of salt.

      Anyway, thanks for the report. Nice to see Watson being stretched, even if it didn’t work out today. Still expect him and Gueller to start in Lakewood next season, and for at least one of them to emerge as a big-time prospect.

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  30. Sorry- should’ve proofread that one. I meant to say the game was rained out at the beginning of the 3rd inning

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    1. Good report. I felt like I was there. His pick-off move does sound impressive. Though I would like to hear about fewer base runners. Which would probably make his pick off even more effective. Thet florida breeze does take me back. I bet it was a hot breeze.

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