Box Score Recap 8-19-2012

Box Score Recap

Zach Collier has hit HR in 3 straight games.  He had 3 all year before that.  And 2 his whole career before this year.  Intriguing.  I guess.  Or something.  He’s confusing.

LV  REA  CLR  LKW ppd WIL  GCL, DSL Off

157 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 8-19-2012”

  1. Aumont did have a bad night after a good night last night. Gillies, Asche and Ruf are trying to get the team in the play offs but they are not getting much help from the rest of the line up. Ruf at 30. 7 more for a tie with Ryan. 7 in 16 or 17 games.

    Like

    1. To be fair, Ruf already has played in more games and has about as many ABs as Howard when he hit 37 HRs in AA at age 24. Howard went on to hit 9 more in AAA, for a season total of 46.

      Like

      1. True, but it’s not the record that I find interesting, but rather the fact that he’s being mentioned in the same universe as howard is. I personally would take .300 30 HR from any position, 1B included. Though I admit, .280 20 would be more likely from Ruf at this point which only really profiles well in LF. Then again, players do suprise. Here’s to hope!

        Like

        1. I think there are a lot of teams that would take .280 and 20 homers from 1B if it’s accompanied by a good OBP and some doubles. I just don’t think there are many people who expect Ruf to do that at the major league level.

          Like

          1. Maybe that’s where I differ, I don’t think Ruf will do it in his first year up, but I would hardly be suprised to see him a 280/20 player if he ever gets the chance to start (this is where I’m not confident because i’m not sold on him in LF). As to the walks and doubles, he’s certainly not a “no walk” guy eg. galvis, but he’s not chase utley either. Doubles I expect he’ll be about average, rumor is he’s not overly quick so he won’t end up with many “stretch” doubles, though his power should equal that out some.

            Like

  2. On Collier: he seems to have been around for a long time…but he’s only 21.

    This season he has recovered from his juice mistake and come forward playing mostly center field, and now with “purposeful” power for the 3 HRs of late. IMO, he had previously been coached more for contact; so with that becoming better the coaches are working to elevate his swing for the power that would aid his becoming more of a MLB prospect. He has speed and he has been laying his bat on the ball decently well this season so with further development of his “contactability” plus power he becomes a guy with 2-3 years of development ahead.

    His physical tools seem fine; he may be fine athlete. Future uncertain; add him to the higher 15 at least.

    Like

    2. Yeah, what juice? Juice is a slang term commonly used to refer to anabolic steroids.
      Collier took amphetamines – some call it unprescribed ADD medicine- I call it Speed.
      You’d think somebody who goes on and on about hitting the weights and weight training and packing on mass and all that would know as much.

      Like

      1. well, it seems like every athlete who gets busted always claims to have unknowingly taken whatever they took, and tends to blame their personal trainers. I raise a skeptical eyebrow there

        Like

    3. “higher 15” as in Top 15? With so many middle of the pack types, I doubt Collier comes in that high. Probably ‘last 10’ for me

      Like

      1. Solid season for sure, and certainly in my top 30. But I can’t imagine myself putting him ahead of Biddle, Joseph, Quinn, Morgan, May, Franco, Watson, Gueller, Valle, Martin, Pettibone, Asche, Tocci, Hernandez, or Greene. Solid season though.

        Like

        1. Could make a case for Collier over Hernandez. If Hernandez flashed the speed and patience that we’ve heard about than I’d have him firmly in the top 15. Perhaps his defense is plus tool but just a high BA isn’t enough.

          Like

          1. Collier is an OF in his third year at A ball. Hernandez is a 2B who has gone from Williamsport to Lehigh Valley over the course of three seasons — posting a .745 OPS between AA and AAA this season. I don’t think Collier is close to Hernandez on the prospect rankings.

            Like

            2. Collier certainly has more potential from a projection standpoint. But I’m not basing my observation solely on proximity. It’s based on the fact that Hernandez has been challenged by the org with aggressive promotions and has rewarded them with solid performances, proving his value as a capable hitter who plays above average defense at a premium position. Collier, no matter the circumstances, has been nothing but projection for five years.

              Do I hope his recent success is a the first step in a meteoric rise through the system? Absolutely. Would I trade him to another team over Cesar Hernandez? In a heartbeat, without losing a second of sleep.

              Like

            3. If you compare their 21 yo seasons in clearwater it’s not really close. If Collier sticks at CF (which has has so far) than he’s the better prospect, IMO. Prior to Clearwater, Collier only played 45 more games than Hernandez at the the lower levels. So I think comparing their Clearwater seasons is fair game.

              And for the record I wouldn’t put either in my top 15 but I’d rank Collier ahead.

              Like

            4. If he has 400 more ABs at this time next year — preferably in Reading — and produces like he is now, I’ll be in 100 percent agreement. 🙂

              Like

            5. 3rd year, but with injuries/suspension. And he’s putting up these numbers in a pitcher-friendly league. I can’t wait to see what he can do in Reading next year.

              Like

            6. Me, too. Im just glad we got a kid (and former high draft pick) back on the radar, especially a CFer. We could use some speed at the MLB level again.

              Like

        3. There are about 14 prospects that, without question, should be ranked higher than Collier: Biddle, Joseph, Morgan, Martin, Franco, Tocci, Asche, Quinn, LGj, May, Pettibone, Valle, Hernandez and S Watson. He’s not in my top 15, but after those guys, I can see a good argument made for Zach Collier over anybody else.

          Like

            3. Most scouts think Pettibone is a back end of the rotation starter at most. He is having a nice year, but still does not really miss enough minor league bats to think he will be really good in the majors.

              Like

            4. Back-end of the rotation starter is a better profile than what Collier (still firmly in my top 30) would get at this time.

              Like

            5. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, and nobody can really have a *wrong* opinion…but Collier over Watson comes pretty close. Watson has significantly more trade value (once he is eligible) than a guy like Collier, who while he’s had a decent year, is merely ‘slightly above average’ this year.

              Like

            6. I can some kind of argument over Hernandez, because it is questionable whether Hernandez has the tools to be a major league regular. The others… I can’t see it. LGj is having a season as good as Collier, and is on the same age/level pace, except he hasn’t failed a level yet. Pettibone is clearly going to be a major league starter, low ceiling or not.
              I don’t want to bash Collier, because I agree that he is a better prospect than some have given credit. But I guarantee you that the Phillies would get more in value from a trade of Pettibone, LGj, or Watson over Collier because he has no special tool and he is no guarateed Major League regular.

              Like

        4. Why are we ranking Watson and Gueller ahead of guys who are already proving themselves to be real prospects? We really have no idea what these guys will be, if you’re going by draft picks pedigree, Collier was a higher draft pick than both those guys.
          I would put Collier ahead of Watson, Gueller, Pettibone, Hernandez and Greene.

          Like

          1. Well last year people were putting LGJ in our top ten with no track record. We have stats on Watson and Gueller this year due to the early deadline, and I think Watson and Gueller are better prospects than Collier right now

            Like

            2. He has gotten a ton of scouts and people that are smarter than you to agree that he has great upside as a 2/3 starter, and given him tons of money. Scouting reports are incredibly more useful for 18 year old kids than a few GCL games.

              Like

            3. Previous post was about their stats in the GCL justifying their rankings. Obviously those stats are pretty much meaningless one way or the other. We’re just going with pre-draft hype. And guess what, Collier had enough hype to be picked 30 picks ahead of Gueller.

              Like

            4. And if, in 4 years, Gueller has yet to show why he was drafted that high (as Collier has yet to show), then he should be dropped accordingly.

              Like

            5. First, its only 3 years, as Collier started a year younger than Gueller. Secondly you’re completely discounting 2 lost years for Collier, but that’s fine, lets ignore that. Gueller will still need to be above average in Clearwater at age 21. Is it possible, sure. But I don’t know if that probability is greater than 50%..

              Like

          2. Because people that are many times smarter than both you and I have rated Watson and Gueller higher, and until either of them fail and show they are not worth a high ranking (ie, what Collier already had done), they should be ranked accordingly.

            Watson and Gueller have upside as 2/3 starters. At this point, Collier’s upside is likely a second division starter or 4th OF. They aren’t comparable.

            Like

            1. I disagree with Collier’s upside. Its not like he’s an unheralded guy having a career year. He was a high draft pick and missed 2 years with injuries/suspension and he’s still putting up a great year in Clearwater at age 21.

              Like

            2. You are overestimating how “great” his year is this year. It is “slightly” above average, and his best asset (speed) has taken a hit. Despite his recent HR streak, his power is still below average, even for the FSL, and he doesn’t really project to add a ton of power (I’d imagine 15 HR is his upside). He’s a guy that might end up doing everything ‘pretty well’ but nothing great, which generally leads to being a 4th OF or second-division starter. These guys are a dime a dozen, whereas top 2/3 potential rotation guys, even far from the show, are always more valuable.

              Like

            3. Collier actually reminds me of another often argued prospect around here, Adrian Cardenas. Both hit for decent average and showed little power as they moved through the system.

              Like

            5. Collier is actually starting to show significant power which was always part of his tool base (according to scouting reports). Remember he had the wrist injury, so last year might have been about rebuilding strength. He’d probably be in double digits in Clearwater HR if not for the suspension and then he finally hits a decent hitter’s park next year in Reading. Superficially their stats are similar but I do think their tools differ (Cardenas has a better hit tool, Collier more power). Collier clearly needs more power in the OF as opposed to 2B, but I think he is still a possible breakout next year on that.

              Like

        5. He is on the edge of that last group. Still 21 even with all the missed time. He could easily be a 15-20 HR guy in Reading next year. I am not sure his defense is as good as Gilles, but I don’t think it is bad. Tocci may have more ceiling, but is so far away that they are in the same range prospect-wise. He is definitely top 20 and our 10-20 range is pretty deep these days (1-10 a little less good but looking better with Joseph and Martin).

          Like

      2. For my own amusement, I keep a running top 30 all season and update each month. I had Collier at #18 in early July. Since then I’ve dropped Rodriguez and Gueller behind him, but moved up Cozens, Pullin and Green. I’ve had Collier in my top 20 pretty much since they assigned him to Clearwater.
        He’s the same age as Kelly Dugan, playing a premium position at a higher level. Also, I don’t hold the stimulant use against him, because he can still use it as long as he has a prescription.

        Like

        1. I would actually like to see it, if you would post it once a month. I enjoy reading various posts and if others think along the same line as I do.

          Like

          1. Top 30:
            01. Biddle
            02. Joseph
            03. Morgan
            04. Franco
            05. Asche
            06. Quinn
            07. E Martin
            08. Pettibone
            09. May
            10. Valle
            11. Tocci
            12. LGj
            13. S Watson
            14. Hernandez
            15. A Wright
            16. T Gillies
            17. L Bonilla
            18. Collier
            19. Walding
            20. A Pullin
            21. M Gueller
            22. Aumont
            23. D Cozens
            24. Za Green
            25. B Colvin
            26. Rupp
            27. Altherr
            28. Dugan
            29. Castro
            30. Ruf/Cloyd

            Like

            1. I could argue things like Zach Green vs Cozens but that isn’t too relevant otherwise I agree with the general slots with the exception of Hernandez who I would slot behind Valle and Walding who I would have behind LGj, the scouting reports are too good on him regardless of the performance.

              Like

            5. The only one I see that is very different from where I have him is Tocci. I have him much higher. Looking at it again, I also have Colvin much higher.

              Like

      3. Look at Reading’s roster alone. Guys who are still there or had been earlier in the year. I could see at least a dozen guys from their roster alone who would be ranked higher than Collier. Top 15 is a big stretch

        Like

        1. I think you’re underestimating the kind of season Collier is having. Gary Brown is a top 50 prospect CF. He’s 23 in AAA. Worse BB rate, Better K rate, Worse slugging and WRC+.

          Like

          3. Gary Brown is so overrated. Cracked me up when guys here were upset that the Phillies received Tommy Joseph for Pence, instead of Gary Brown.

            Like

          4. Not really nik. I’m certainly not dismissing Collier’s season. I’m just pointing out that Collier will have a lot of competition of the Top 15. I doubt he’s in my top 15, but he’s certainly in my back 10, maybe back 15. A lot of competition for those first 15 spots (in no particular order)
            5 – Biddle, Morgan, Pettibone, May, Martin
            10- Valle, Joseph, Quinn, Franco, Asche
            15- Gillies, Tocci, Hernandez, LGJ, L Bonilla
            20 – Cozens, Wright, Colvin, Watson, Gueller

            Where do Cloyd, Ruf, Castro, Collier fall? Right now it’s difficult for me to find room for Collier in our top 15, and without a standout skillset, I don’t think it’s necessary anyway. Good year no doubt, I just don’t think he’s Top 15

            Like

          5. You can’t compare a player in A ball’s numbers with a player in AAA’s numbers — it’s apples and oranges.

            Like

            1. I made a typ-o, Brown is in AA and Brown is 2 years older. Also Collier’s AA numbers are going to get a boost next season from Readin’s hitter-friendly park.

              Like

      1. that was the fake website his agent set up to say he unknowingly bought the banned substance.

        Like

    1. I recall this time last season when we were all gushing about the number of walks Hmart was drawing. Well his walk rate is down a tad this season, but his K-rate is also down, and considerably so at that. It’s a bit of an oddity to see a player hit .220 following a 2-level promotion and still see a considerable drop in K-rate.

      He’s doing his best to salvage a respectable batting average Clearwater. Sunday’s 4-hit game was his 4th multi-hit game in past six games, raising his BA 40 points in the process (.183 – .223).

      Like

      1. I’m still watching him pretty closely, even though my expectations are way down. With a strong finish he could still be starting in Reading next year, at 23. Not too bad.

        Like

  6. If there’s a guy you want (need) to keep off base, it’s Quinn. So they walk him once and hit him twice. He also throws an infield single in there for good luck and causes a balk in the process.

    Like

  8. I would give pitcher of the night award to Clearwater’s Hector Neris considering what the others did in the game.

    Like

  9. The Asche, Gillies, Ruf show is just getting obscene…. They should put all 3 on the same winterball team to see what happens…

    Like

    1. I’d be willing to give Gillies a “special guest star” billing in the Asche/Ruf Hour.

      Ruf is just obscene, but what Asche is doing is amazing. Asche’s AA OPS (.808) is nearing the level of his High A OPS (.825). Raise your hand if you thought that would happen a month and a half ago. If he had enough ABs to qualify, he’d be ranked in the league’s Top 20 in BA and OPS and Top 10 in SLG. All after being double-jumped to Clearwater and making the most difficult jump in minor league baseball — A to AA — in the span of five months.

      Like

      1. +1 on that. I was in the group that said to leave Asche at Clearwater, then grimaced when his first 80 or so at-bats at Reading saw him hitting around .160. Now his average is in the 280s with significantly more power (than CLW) and a better bb%. Probably a top 5 prospect for me at this point.

        – Jeff

        Like

        1. me too Jeff. Lots of surprises this year, but Asche’s is twice the story. The phenomenal start at Clearwater followed by a tremendous rebound at Reading. In the same season no less, and following a year which he failed to hit .200 in the NYPL. Who saw this one coming?

          I was also very pessimistic about his move to Reading only because of his struggles in rookie ball the year before. Glad to be wrong in this case though. The way he’s going he’ll be above .300 at Reading before week’s end. Great story

          Like

        2. +2 for Asche. Probably the biggest surprise for me this year and the reports on his athleticism are encouraging. I chalked up last year to adjustment, but still did not think Asche was more than a .275 hitter with 10 HR probably spending the year at Clearwater. It will be fascinating if he can continue to develop power. I also wonder if 2B still might be part of his future after Utley. Remember he seems to be a pretty good athlete and he did play there last year. I know that was to get Martinez time as well, but if he could handle that he might play alongside Franco or Walding.

          Like

      2. If Asche continues at this pace, he could see the Major Leagues by 2014. This can be great timing for the Phillies. I like what I see so far from Frandsen to hold the job till then. This way the Phillies can use their money for a power hitting outfielder. On the other hand Asche can also play second base, as Utley’s contract expires next season

        Like

      3. I was excited too to see him get his OPS up over .800 in AA. By this time next year we’ll really know what we have with him.

        Like

      4. +2. Really well said by Mike and Jeff. Asche has really made awesome strides the 2nd half of his AA season.

        Like

  10. 10 walks by that Reading Staff is ridiculous, and I’m about ready to give up on Aumont. I don’t think he’s ever going to find the kind of consistency we’d want to see out of a reliever.

    lots of good news too, I wonder if Gillies has a chance to make the big club out of spring training. I also think that Ruf hitting behind Asche is really helping, but all in all, I think Ruf could help the big team out in LF right now…the problem being that there’s nobody who you could trust to play a good CF on the big league club right now. Ruf is probably somewhere below adequate in LF, so to trot him out there next to a CF with below average range would remind probably us of the days of Tony Barron and Ricky Otero

    Like

    1. ‘the problem being that there’s nobody who you could trust to play a good CF on the big league club right now.’….Mayberry has the speed to get to all the balls in CF, catching them can be a question.

      Like

      1. true. although he is a fast, graceful outfielder, one of mayberry’s problems is that he tends to drift to balls rather than running to the spot where they are coming down. this is a correctable flaw, but it shows how even when players reach the big leagues, they still have room for improvement/development

        Like

      2. Is Gillies a possible September callup?? Joe Jordan really seems impressed with him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a couple games in like the way Lou Marson did in 2008

        Like

        1. Hope they do bring up Gillies for a few games in Sept. With CF wide open on the big club, he should get a shot….in Sept and spring training. It’s time.

          Like

  11. Baseball Prospectus’ Monday Morning 10 Pack

    Jesse Biddle, LHP, Phillies (High-A Clearwater)
    A first-round pick in 2010, Biddle pitched well in 2011, but he did so while showing a concerning drop in velocity. His high school velocity has returned this year to its 90-94 mph range, and Biddle had the best start of the weekend, and one of the best of the year, striking out 12 on Friday night over seven no-hit innings while walking two. Beyond the fastball, Biddle’s curveball continues to make progress, as he’s begun to harness the pitch in terms of throwing it more for strikes, and his changeup projects to average. As a 20-year-old with 137 strikeouts over 129 2/3 innings at High-A, he’s ahead of the curve age-wise and has all the makings of a future mid-rotation workhorse.

    Tyson Gillies, OF, Phillies (Double-A Reading)
    Gillies was once a highly-regarded prospect who blew away scouts with his speed in the 2009 Futures Game and went from Seattle to Philadelphia in a December trade that year that involved larger names like Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. Since then, he kind of fell off the map, playing just 31 games combined during 2010 and 2011 because of constant hamstring issues and a disturbing arrest for cocaine possession that saw charges ultimately dropped due to clearly shoddy police work, as Gillies maintained his innocence and never tested positive. While he missed a good chunk of this season with a concussion, his hamstrings have held up and he’s been productive, going 7-for-13 over the weekend to lift his season averages to .294/.367/.440 in 54 games. He’s not the burner he once was, but still has plenty of speed, although he’s stolen just eight bases this year. He’ll need to do something more than hit for average, as he’ll never be a big power guy, and he’s not much of a walker. For now, it’s just nice to have the 23-year-old back after falling off the radar.

    Like

    1. Nice write-ups … has there been documentation of a legitimate loss of speed with Gillies? I’d imagine his hamstrings have slowed him down a little, but this is the first time I believe I’ve actually heard someone in the media say this.

      Like

      1. I haven’t read anything, but I imagine it is likely written due to 1) the obvious hamstring issues; and 2) the on-field drop in stolen bases.

        Like

    2. Thanks, was looking for that after Goldstein tweeted about it. I’m hoping Biddle turns into a Matt Moore type. Future 2/3 would be nice for sure. I’d love to get him on the fast track after next year after Roy leaves, but I think end of 2014 is more likely.

      Like

      1. I think Roy will stay on a team-friendly extension. He has expressed a desire to finish his career here. Also Matt Moore was a top 3 prospect considered to be a potential ace before this season but he has had trouble adjusting. If Biddle is ever compared to Matt Moore its likely because Moore’s ceiling falls quite a bit, not because Biddle is considered a #1 guy.

        Like

  12. Aumont’s inconsistency is maddening. And in this case it was the BB’s that hurt him; it appears he just got knocked around.

    Other observations:
    – Terrible start for Austin Wright
    – Mitch Walding mired in a deep slump after a hot start He’s down to .228 and seems like he’s been hitless for weeks..
    – Tyler Greene and Harold Martinez both above .220. Signs of hope for these two?

    Like

    1. If anyone told me Tyler Greene might have a higher AVG than Walding in August, I’d have a hardy laugh.

      Like

    1. Not as horrible as the logic in your post. He was great last year and still flashes 2/3 starter stuff this year even as he has had his ups and downs.

      Like

      1. Where is your logic ? 1.52 Whip / 5.17 ERA ..77 BB in 130 inn . Is that a 2/3 starter / Not on my team . A lot more downs than ups

        Like

        1. Your post referenced 2 years. He was very good last year. You also ignore his stuff which is as good or better than anyone else we have in the minors, Biddle included. Cherry-picking stats from one year (where he admittedly has had his ups and downs) is not the same as an analysis of his value as a prospect. IMO he is still a top 5 prospect, though this last year he has slipped a little because of his control. The raw stuff is still there. He is not number one anymore, but is still top 5. Biddle, Joseph and maybe Martin are ahead of him. Not sure anyone else is.

          Like

    2. May was solid last season in somewhat of a breakout campaign. Even if his 3.63 ERA left something to be desired, his remaining peripherals were great, including 200 strikeouts. His 2010 season on the other hand was also a disappointment, So perhaps 2 out of 3 years have been ‘horrible’

      Like

    3. I’m not sure that he is come Feb13. You could ask why was Colvin in many Top10’s in Feb12. May at least has a better argument given last years performance.

      Like

    4. I think May is out of the Top 5, but I don’t think his stock as plummeted a ton, the skills are all there but it is less about the slight step back he took and more about the leaps everyone made around him. He was top3 in strikeouts in minor league baseball last year.

      Like

      1. It takes more than K’s to make a good pitcher . ERA 5.17 …Whip 1.52 ..?
        His performance no longer warrrants top 10 consideration in my book

        Like

        2. The real problem is walks and home runs, that points to something mechanical, likely his old problem of not repeating his delivery consistently. I grant that often he has no clue where the ball is going but this is a problem that has been fixed before and he has had encouraging starts. If you instantly give up on a guy when he struggles you leave no time for him to make adjustments, AA is difficult and he isn’t exactly old yet.

          Like

          1. Having no clue where his pitches are going is a problem for a pitcher don,t you think ? and his poor Whip does reflect that comment

            Like

            1. It does but he has a track record of getting the walks down, otherwise his HR rate is unsustainable. He is up 1BB/9IP from last year, his K rate has drop 4K/9IP, the big difference is that HR rate is 1HR/9IP higher than last year and that isn’t just the park. His BABIP is also unsustainable, he has been bad but it doesn’t destroy him as a prospect.

              Like

  15. I think Walding showed enough out of the gate that his finish will not change his ranking at this time. First year out of HS is a long season. I’m sure he just wore down. Tyler on the hand needed a strong finish as he was the one guy that had a head start on his draft class of High Schoolers.

    Like

    1. That s stupid. When pitchers don’t know you then the hitter has the advantage. When the teams have a plan to get you out and you don’t hit.. The players that make the second half adjustments are the better prospects. The teams knew how to get Tyler out early in the year and he is making the adjustments.

      Like

      1. Actually, if the pitcher and the hitter are both unknown quantities, the pitcher usually has the advantage, since velocity, movement and arsenal of pitches are a mystery.

        Like

  16. I was bored so I decided to complete the exercise that BA does every year which is project the line up four years down the road ( http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2012/2612564.html ), you can only use players currently on the team or in the system. But it is interesting in thinking about who will be peaking then as well as what is the depth chart order.

    Projected 2016 Line Up
    Catcher: Joseph
    First Base: Howard
    Second Base: Hernandez (Utley’s knees have to be gone by then)
    Shortstop: Quinn (sticks and outhits Galvis)
    Third Base: Franco (just has a bit more upside than Asche)
    Left Field: Asche (You have to put him somewhere)
    Center Field: Collier
    Right Fielder: Brown
    SP #1: Hamels
    Sp #2: Lee
    Sp #3: Biddle
    SP #4: Martin
    Sp #5: Morgan
    Set Up: Colvin
    Closer: Aumont

    The big things I notice immediately, the big corner mashers (Greene and Cozens) are really far away and one of them ultimately ends up at first when they make it. There is a ton of left handed pitching. Otherwise middle infield is pretty weak. The system is also fairly deep but you just question if half the guys are going to make it past AA.

    Like

    1. I would love to know what our projected 2012 lineup was in 2008. I am guessing people had many eventual busts penciled in to every spot in the order.

      Like

      1. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267393.html
        Catcher: Marson
        First Base: Howard
        Second Base: Utley
        Third Base: Donald
        Shortstop: Rollins
        Left Field: Taylor
        Center Field: Victorino
        Right Field: Brown
        SP #1: Hamels
        SP #2: Carrasco
        SP #3: Drabek
        SP #4: Myers
        SP #5: Blanton
        Closer: Lidge

        That is really bad coming off that World Series title, but that was before the large trades and payroll.

        Like

        1. Very interesting, thanks for posting. That team would definitely not be very good, but it sounds about right. Of the prospects you have a couple guys who would have big league roles if not for injuries (Carrasco, Drabek and to a certain extent Brown) and then a handful of guys who will likely never be everyday players (Marson, Donald, Taylor) but did net us above average players in trades.

          Like

    2. For everybody that bitched about Greene over Jackie Bradley, look at that projected lineup for your explanation. This organization is bereft of legitimate power prospects (with apologies to the Ruf Riders); you can’t project a single one of those guys to hit 20 home runs, Howard (age 36 season!) included.

      Like

        1. Greene has the same number of walks in his first 53 games as Hewitt had in his first 210. There’s a good chance he doesn’t succeed but I don’t think he’ll resemble Hewitt.

          Like

        2. It’s not really a problem, though. If you want to develop a young slugger, and you’re not picking at the top of the draft, you need to take risks on unproven players. As I’ve mentioned before, Bradley will probably be a nice MLB player, but he won’t be a star. Greene might be.

          Organizations need to take a combination of both kinds of players, but the Phillies system at the moment is devoid of star-level talent. Greene could still be that guy.

          Like

        3. Don’t know how well he L. Greene will hit, but he has already walked more times than Hewitt did in 3 seasons.

          Like

            1. No problem, to be fair Bob was probably just talking about how they both strike out a lot. But I’m encouraged that Greene has shown some pretty decent plate discipline so far (.349 OBP). If he doesn’t make it it’ll probably be because the scouts who were worried about his bat speed were right.

              Like

            2. If he doesn’t show an ISO in the mid 100’s next year i’ll start to worry about the bat speed. I remember when I was playing ball… and when I was having trouble reading the pitch I toned my bat speed back to 50-60% of full power. The weird part here is he’s taking plenty of walks, which leads me to believe he’s got good pitch recognition. So I’m not exactly sure what’s going on here, other then to say lets give it another year before that is a legitimate concern. You aren’t considered an 80 on the scouting scale in power without having plus plus bat speed. It’s obvious at this point that his batting practice results aren’t translating into the games, but he’s extremely young and honestly… not from california, looking forward to next years results.

              Remember Ryan Howard, at age 21 in the NYP league, only managed 6 home runs in 203 AB’s… Bet people were worried about his bat speed at the time too, then again he was a 4th round draft pick out of college signed for slot, people probably thought it was par for the course.

              Like

          2. I saw the Gillies Asche and Ruf show last week in person. I don’t believe Gillies has lost any speed. He is back to the most exciting show in the Phil’s system. He is just as exciting in the outfield. The players all watch him during Bp. I hope the Phil’s have a trainer on him constantly’ He has the tightest hams in baseball. Stretching better be a regular regiment. It’s a shame Joseph on down the line up has not helped Reading win enough games to make the play offs. They should move all three of them up to LV as a team Sept 4th. Asche now has a shorter swing. He looks more relaxed and is hitting to all fields with some power. Bat next to his ear and pop, all forward motion. Pretty much like Brown without all of the bat play before the pitch. Joseph looks lost right now. I hope he settles in soon.

            Like

            1. Well its been said that they’ve changed something in Joseph’s swing so he’s probably just getting used to that right now.

              Like

            2. Thanks for the report Tony. When did Asche shorten his swing? Just since he got to Reading or had you seen him before then?

              Like

            4. I loved this week’s Inquirer article on Gillies – they said what I’ve been saying all along. Gillies clearly has the talent to be a really good major league centerfielder. He is good at a lot of things and he has room to grow. But he has to stay healthy and stop acting like a dope from time to time.

              Like

    3. Cliff Lee may not make 2013 in a phillies uniform, but if he does, in 2016 he will be 38 years old. Just not sure if he will still be pitching as a starter.

      Like

      1. His option will likely vest so, for $25 million he better be a starter. Projecting trades and player movement was not part of the exercise as well

        Like

      2. Altherr is not in the same boat as Jiwan James. James has never had an OPS over 700, and his K/BB rate is horrendous. Altherr has a .736 OPS, which is above average for the SAL. He plays CF, is 25-32 in steals and is age appropriate for his league (younger than Dugan).
        Altherr is doing as well as should have been expected. This would be his junior year in college. If he were a 2012 college draftee, with that line, in Lakewood, people would be ecstatic.

        Like

        1. I agree, I looked at Altherr’s line today and I was really surprised, it is career highs everywhere for him, he has decent plate discipline, some power, speed, and plays a decent center field. He does not profile as well in a corner. He isn’t Top 10 but I think Top 20 and a real sleeper for next year.

          Like

      3. nik but you think Collier is better then those 2 even thou Altherr’s numbers are better in Lakewood then Colliers were last year? where is the logic in that?

        Like

  18. Jiwan will be lucky if he is in baseball next year. He doesn’t have a clue at the plate. He shows speed in the field. Why he doesn’t lay down a bunt and try to shorten his swing is beyond me. Time is almost up for him. He is definitly out of the top 10 and maybe the top 20.

    Like

  21. We ARE talking about him…but certainly moreso recently during his hot streak. His early season numbers were less than good but he has pulled himself together at the plate now. Working out of that beginning hole gives him more credibilty now and for the future. A youngster at Clwtr in ’13 is his legitimate accomplishment. 19?

    Maybe it’ll take 3 more seasons to get him to the bigs but he could be the real deal for extraordinary power offense at 3rd base. Asche might move to the OF then with his own superior offense.

    Bright future possible for both of them.

    Like

    1. can asche play second base? wouldn’t that work well, if he could fill the hole utley will leave with franco playing third? something to dream on.

      Like

    2. Someone posted a few days ago that Franco said he was instructed to try to go the other way in his ABs prior to the all star break and that those restrictions were lifted after the break. I asked for a link, but got no reply, so take it for what it’s worth. If true, makes the year even more impressive.

      Like

    3. I do understand why Asche gets more attention – but even though I do like Asche as a prospect (despite trying to counter some of the more extreme expectations), I think Franco is a brighter prospect, while of course further away. I think we should be talking a little more about Franco and a little less about Asche

      Like

Comments are closed.