Box Score Recap 8-16-2012

Box Score Recap

Hey, that Kelly Dugan’s on another hot streak.  Watch out.  Also, good to see Harold Martinez above the ol’ Mendoza line.  He’s been hitting a little bit lately.

LV  REA  CLR  LKW  WIL  GCL  DSL

93 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 8-16-2012”

  1. Andrew Pullin, Zach Green and Dylan Cozens rank 2, 3, and 4 in OPS, of all 2012 High School draftees in the GCL.
    They are all in the top 15 overall (Pullin 4, Green 9, Cozens 15). Only 2 other teenagers in the top 15 of the league.

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    1. Those three plus Tocci would all rank in the top 20 in wRC+ in the GCL if they had enough at bats. Very cool!

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      1. I really don’t even look at Tocci’s numbers at this point. The fact that at age 16, they let him play everyday and hit high in the lineup, tells me that they think he is a serious player.
        Similar to 2 years ago, when they hit Franco #4 everyday at age 17.

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  2. If Pullin is projected to be 2nd baseman for the Phillies why aren’t they playing him there? I think he’s hit well enough to gain the confidence at the plate.

    D’Arby Myers playing very well still don’t know if he has enough for the majors but he’s doing pretty well since his promotion to Reading.

    Valle has 3 HRs since his callup and last night was by far his best night in AAA that I’ve seen. 3 for 4 against a guy he probably knows pretty well from the Eastern League but still a good game is a good game to boost confidence.

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  3. Cody Asche and Valle still raking….

    Larry Greene breaking out with 3 Dbls…

    Is Myers a prospect?? almost no power……

    Shane watson two more clean innings…

    Team now seems to be Catcher heavy with Chooch, valle, joseph and the kid Astudillo in GCL is now at .328 Chooch gonna get some time at 3rd with Valle coming on strong?? Hard to have chooch long at 3rd with Asche making push?

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      1. Also Gabriel Lino in Lakewood seems to have some upside. Even Josh Ludy has to be considered some type of prospect at this point.

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        1. Plus one of the International Free Agents signed from the Dominican is a catcher, only 16 years old though.

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    3. I usually try not to be a Debbie Downer but I don’t think there’s any reason to get excited over Myers. He has hit like this in short bursts before. He still seems to struggle with controlling the strike zone, though his strikeout rate is better this year in a small sample. I suppose he’s only 23 in AA and can run and field well (so I hear, though he does not get many reps in CF these days), so perhaps one can dream, but I am very skeptical. We’ve been through this with him before.

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    4. Chooch only has 1 more year on his contract, so he’ll be catching. And with Valle and Joseph not that far away, 2013 will likely be Chooch’s last year in a Phillies uni.

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    1. I’d say he’s had about as successful a season as we could have envisioned. Within reason of course. Nice year for Kelly

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  5. Lots of positives last night, no Ruf homer? Keep your hands over your eyes when approaching Colvin’s line though.

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  6. I understand you want all prospects to hit .350 and never Strike out, but Ill take the 25 HR potential from a 22 year old catcher at AA&AAA. Heard some things that the Phils were disappointed with Valle’s progression after the Pence trade but I dont really understand??? Hes still young with a year or two where he wont be asked to be a Major League backstop.

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    1. He basically does not ever take a Walk…that’s a pretty huge red flag for a prospect regardless of his power.

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      1. whats the average BB rate for Latin players? Not all were born with a Bobby Abreu spoon in their mouth.

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        1. I don’t know what the average is, but his rate – especially for a prospect facing many pitchers with less than major league control – is really quite low by any standard. Even a little higher, even 5% as someone else suggests, would make him far more likely to succeed in the majors.

          Just for some perspective, there are only 5 players in the majors (among qualifiers) this year with a BB% under 4%. They are all good to very good contact hitters, which Valle is not, and four of them have a career rate over 5%.

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        2. Yeah, I dont think they break down stats by ethnicity as that’s probably the dumbest comment in the history of the board.

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      1. The reality is that he has a leg lift trigger that causes him to have to decide early when to swing. I keep waiting for the Phils to change his swing so he can wait longer on the ball, and draw some walks, but it hasn’t happened yet. Maybe they’ve tried and he hasn’t responded. I don’t know.

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    3. That said, as a catcher in the bigs, he’ll be expected to hit 8th, which means he’ll get pitched around more then perhaps any other hitter. Should allow him to slowly develop patience… or atleast one would think.

      Further, offensive output is least important for a catcher, if he can get his walk rate up to a measily 5% it would be perfectly fine.

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      1. Hopefully he will develop patience. The “glass half-empty” side of it is that he’ll get pitched around, and, swing at everything and be a .174 hitter

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  8. Just two quick thoughts re: Reading last night.
    1) Did Myers steal Ruf’s bat for the evening?(or his special amulet, or mojo or whatever is in that Central PA water lately..)
    2) In LLWS rules, would Reading have been “mercy-ruled” last night before the comeback?

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  9. Not sure if any Phillies’ prospect seems like a lock superstar, but many possibilities. I have only been following Phillies minors for a few years but I do not know if any draft class has started off this good. All with a LONG way to go but very encouraging.
    If Asche were a 1st Rd draft pick he might be in the Top100 (e.g like Zack Cox). Asche did play 2B last season so he may have some positional flexibility if Phillies somehow acquire a top notch 3B this offseason..
    Every year the 40-man roster decision prior to the Rule5 draft is quite interesting to me. It affects who goes to AFL. It definitely forces the Phillies to publicize their opinion on their prospects. There is also a bit of a gambling game with the other teams. I am curious on the possible OF they protect from Gillies (already on), James, Ruf, Castro. I could see any of them being valuable for another team causing some tough decisions for Phillies.

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    1. The chances of the Phils acquiring a “top notch 3b this offseason” are slim and none. With Asche obviously well qualifying for the 3b position for the long term, and maybe having the exhibited likely excellent hitting with power to come as he plays MLB, why would the Phils pay substantial monies to fill the same position?

      Their 3b-man is sitting on their doorstep at the MLB minimum salary (about $400,000). If acquisitions are made, they MUST be for two righty hitting outfielders. Asche is their 3rd baseman….either at the ’13s beginning or soon thereafter. And be happy that is so.

      Think: a guy at third who could hit over .300 with additional power to come within 2 seasons. Meanwhile he will be getting on base and fill the gaping hole at the “hot corner” for years to come…and well.

      He has “star” written all over him!

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      1. Possible, but I believe you are underestimating the possibility that Asche might not be ready, might not improve, or just fall on his face.

        For example, Dom Brown was very significantly better in the minors than Asche has been this year, and it took him a while until he has not finally gotten a starting gig — and still the jury is out on him.

        Honestly, I’d put about 20-25% chance that he becomes a major league everyday player (which, by the way — is actually a compliment when talking about guys in AA).

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        1. He is also I think somewhat over estimating how good Asche will be even if his development continues. He does not project as a .300 hitter right now. If things break right for him, I see him more as a .280/.335/.400 hitter, which, for a third baseman, is still decent. Think Brett Lawrie (this year’s version), though of course Lawrie has a higher upside and is likely a better fielder.

          But with Asche in AA and Franco looking very good in A, and the picking among thrid basemen FAs so thin, I’m not sure he is wrong in his ultimate conclusion.

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          1. LarryM, several times I have seen you reference a minor leaguer’s ‘projected slash line in the majors’. Is there a link you have or a site you could point me to so that I may get a better grasp on how one computes it (or even how reliable it is).

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            1. The link to the calculator is here http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com/mlsplits/mlecalc, but I didn’t use it in this case (it would be significantly worse than my projections using this year’s Reading stats). I was projecting further development from him – it was more an “eyeball” projection, with significant weight on his contact rate and BB%. As an “upside” projection, it was probably a bit conservative regarding SLG, which I acknowledge below.

              It’s awfully tough for a guy who has a K rate around 17.5 (Asche’s current career minor league rate) to hit .300.

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            2. Just to clarify, there are some guys who manage to hit .300 with a K rate in that range. Those guys tend to be big home run hitters, which of course Asche is not, and won’t be, even if his power develops significantly. Players with the kind of power that we realistically hope for from Asche don’t hit .300 unless their K rates are a lot lower than 17.5%.

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          2. Your projection is probably accurate in terms of being likely, but I think Asche has more upside than that. Scouts like his power and he’s shown a good bit of it in Reading, so I think he could manage more than a .735 OPS.

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          3. .735 OPS isn’t even an average starting 3B… of the 15 qualified 3B in the league this year, all but 3 managed better… just saying. And as a contender, with an aging 2B/SS/1B … that just isn’t enough to justify if you’re saying it’s his “finished product” batting line.

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            2. No time for an extended response, or response to other comments, which i will try to get to later, but limiting yourself to qualifiers skews the results, moreso at third than other positions. .735 is about average among all third basemen. It is interesting that Lawrie, despite an OPS just a little higher, has 2.7 WAR this season so far. But yeah I might be underselling the SLG% a bit. I still don’t see him with a BA much above .280.

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            3. I agree about the .280, mostly because his BABIP this year isn’t sustainable, that plus his K rate (21%) is too damn high without enough walks this year (5.5%ish) the lack of walks makes me think he doesn’t have a plus hit tool. (needed to approach .300 in the majors). His lack of walks depresses his OBP, leading to a lower OPS. Power wise I actually think .425 is a good estimate (i know that doesn’t sound much different then you, but .760 is a lot different then .735 when evaluating him as a starter.)

              As to excluding the qualifiers, you’re right, it does skew the data to “better players”. Part of the reason I did that when doing the review is becuase I don’t think average OPS per at bat across all 3B is a good way to measure a good “starter”. We know Asche can be a bench/part time player (say that reps half of all AB’s by non-qualified players). The phillies need a multi-year starter given the lack of other top flight talent at that position both in FA and in the high minors. And those players will typically be qualifying players.

              The jist of your opinions and mine uasually aren’t that far off, as seems the case here.

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  10. Olt is still a possibilty in the off season. The Rangers cannot move Beltre with his contract unless they pay it. Outside of a trade there are 0 3B worth mentioning in FA and not much for corner OF’s that hit from the right side either.

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    1. Lee for Beltre straight up. Not sure how much longer on Beltre’s contract but it would give Asche plenty of time to get major league ready.

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      1. Interesting trade. Phils would probably have to kick in a few bucks and perhaps pull Gentry or another player too

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      1. No to the Arenado, but maybe Colvin, Valle to Arizona for Ryan Wheeler, he is being squeezed out of their plans due to Chris Johnson

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      2. That’s just not the kind of deal that teams make. Team’s don’t trade potential stars for multiple potential solid regulars.

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      3. I wouldn’t do that from the Phillies standpoint. Idk what scouts say about Arenado but I assume they like him a lot. He’s a year younger than Asche and doing less damage at the same level. I don’t think that difference is worth May and Valle.

        But realistically, prospect for prospect trades are rare anyway.

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  11. BA Hot Sheet Recap: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/prospect-hot-sheet/2012/2613902.html

    Cody Asche – #8 – BA praises his feel for hitting, they doubt whether he has prototype power for 3B but his hit tool should carry him to the majors.
    Jon Pettibone – In The Team Photo – Not a lot here other than he is putting up results.
    Darin Ruf – Man Among Boys – Uppercut swing leads to power, crushing lefties. The most damning thing I have heard all year though is that he is cheating on fastballs, which is a weakness that will be exploited at both AAA and the majors when pitchers have more developed secondary pitches. BA sees his best case scenario as cheap platoon bench bat.

    Brody Colvin – Not-So Hot Sheet – No new reports he still is getting destroyed in AA.

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    1. I’m not a huge Ruf fanboy, but I’m not too worried about those comments because: 1) everyone cheats on the fastball, and 2) more importantly, his BB/K rates suggest he is doing a good job recognizing these.

      Cheating on fastballs is not an issue if you have the ability to recognize and lay off the breaking stuff.

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    2. I know Ruf is hitting lefties much better than righties, but if Ruf’s .875 OPS vs. RHPs was his total OPS, he’d still be leading the league in that category. So he hits righties better than anyone in the Eastern League.

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    3. Since the Hot Sheet is free, here is the content:

      “Scouts don’t expect Ruf’s joyride to continue all the way to the big leagues, however, not given his age, his uppercut swing or his tendency to cheat to get the drop on fastballs. This season the righty-hitting Ruf has inflicted a disproportionate amount of damage on lefty pitchers—against whom he’s batting .375/.470/.772 with 15 homers in 136 at-bats—suggesting a best-case scenario as inexpensive platoon power source.”

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  12. I agree & would love to keep Frandsen for 1 more yr ( even with error last night) as a 3rd base placeholder, to give Asche a chance to mature a little as a 3b in LV in 2013 and stake a claim to the Phillies’ 3rd base bag in 2014.

    But given the Phillies’ history in the past few years with prospects, I am doubting it will come to fruition. ( BUT HOLD OUT HOPE THAT I AM WRONG)

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  13. few thoughts:

    I really expect Larry Green to finish strong. Asche numbers don’t surprise me any longer. He is legit 3rd base prospect on cusp of being major league player within 1-2 years. Tommy Joseph is leading what is now a very deep position. I think Valle is pure trade bait that will be packaged with current phillies player for relief pitching. I have no idea on Ruff yet. Mitch Walding where have you gone? He was my favorite player to follow who came out on fire who has plummeted. His swing is too sweet to be hitting .239.

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    1. I’m not worried about any prospects first year in minor league ball. It’s a big jump for them as they transition into playing baseball as a profession and being on their own. Sure, we all want these guys to get out of the gate early, but sometimes it doesn’t happen. I’m more interested in seeing how they handle their second year.

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      1. I agree with this, these kids have to be exhausted at this point, physically and probably emotionally. Even short season is a long season for a kid use to traveling at most 2 hours to games for 1/3rd of the year. This offseason, after a year of experience and coaching, I expect half of the “young stars” to drop off and the other half to take a big step forward.

        We’ll see but Walding is one of the guys I’m most excited about for next year and one of the “young stars” with seemingly the least number of questions from scouts.

        Larry Green one of the ones I’m most concerned about. Being billed as the top power bat in the draft and then not putting up much if any power in his debut worries me (only 2 homeruns?! and a general lack of doubles!?), plus the scouting reports for LG haven’t been that great.

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    2. I agree that Valle would be a good piece in a trade…but the Phils’ “most needed” are righty outfielders to balance the largely lefty-hitting lineup (Brown, Utley, Howard–Asche) and to fill two open positions with both Vic and Hunter gone, and with Asche (in ’13), too, who is a lefty hitter. Relievers are much more available in the market.

      Valle’s failure to take walks might keep him as a back-up catcher in the bigs though good back-ups with power are still valuable.

      By the way, did y’all take note of Phils’ brass naming then (before Lino and Joseph) another catcher as the best in the system? IMO, that was a wake-up call to Valle who might have been assuming he was comfortably highest on the list and acting like it.

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      1. If I recall that statement, it came out of a questionable reading of the quote from Joe Jordan or someone else. They called Rupp the best “receiver” or were talking about his receiving ability and said he was the best. Not hard to believe a 24 yr old major college guy is better defensively than a 22 yr old guy. I guessed on the ages, btw.

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  14. Pulled from baseball america’s chat today

    Matt (Philly): With breakouts like Asche, among others, coupled with trades as the Phillies farm system gone from terrible to at least average?

    Matthew Eddy: I’ve been impressed with how well Asche and third-round lefty Adam Morgan have performed in their full-season debuts. Each has earned a promotion to Double-A. Add them to LHP Jesse Biddle, a legit rotation candidate in two years, and trade acquisitions like C Tommy Joseph and RHP Ethan Martin and yes I agree the Phillies have taken a big step forward, both in terms of prospect depth and potential impact.

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    1. Good to get my question answered, it is nice to hear that the industry thinks that the farm system is really on the rise

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  15. A very Phillies centered BA chat, some more questions and answers:

    nik (Philly): What’s Code Asche’s possible power projection? 10 HRs? 15?

    Matthew Eddy: At this stage, it looks like 10-12 HR would be a good year. He kind of reminds me of a more athletic, better-defending version of the Mets’ Daniel Murphy.

    Jon (Philadelphia): How do you determine where to rank guys with lower ceilings that are closer to the majors (Cody Asche, Jon Pettibone) versus guys with bigger upsides but farther away (Roman Quinn, Shane Watson). For example, how would you rate these four guys in the Phillies organization?

    Matthew Eddy: We attempt to balance players by their realistic ceilings and their likelihood of reaching that potential — but each year we’re reminded that ranking prospects is more art than science.

    Tom (Boston): The comment about Asche’s position being “TBD” makes me nervous. Do you think he can stay at 3rd or is there no chance?

    Matthew Eddy: Asche can handle the demands of the position. The question is will he produce profile power that teams look for from corner players? If the Phillies are getting 20+ HR from first and both corner outfield spots, it may not matter.

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  16. I would take a better version of Daniel Murphy most days. Plus I don’t think Asche needs to have 20+ HR’s to be successful. It has been 10 years since we had a 20+ HR third baseman

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    1. The only reason i don’t quite agree is all those years we had amazing SS and 2B production which are positions not known for high offensive output.

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  18. Besides…did you notice that Asche is listed at 180 lbs? In addition to attending AFL in Oct (probably but not certainly) he will hit the weights and soon enough will hit 20-25 HRs/season…or more.

    Getting him up to the bigs ASAP would free the hunt for OFers and allow him tio develop his power within 2 yrs as so many do…because he has the athleticism, good and improving glove, arm strength, and ability to hit the ball with good portions of his bat. Allowing him to develop with the team infuses youth that’s desperately needed.

    With his work ethic and talent he should become a star at his position.

    His rise through the system, facing and overcoming each challenge tells us a lot about his near future. His determination will give us that long-awaited 3rd baseman…and for satisfactory years ahead.

    That is my position…and I’m sticking with it.

    Never to my memory (not quite faded yet) have I watched a Phils prospect advance so quickly/spectacularly up through their pharm system. To me, a longtime Phils’ watcher and sufferer, he has been a minor Phils miracle. Ya gotta believe…especially when the glitter is in front of you.

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    1. If he develops into a 20/25 HR guy with a .280+ BA, I’d take the next 4-5 years of that no problem.

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    2. I’m as excited as the next guy (assuming the next guy isn’t you) but you must be either him Mom or agent…

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  19. As far as Asche: .280,10-15 HRs and good defense is not bad for the post steroid era. Adding weight and strength doesn’t necessarily mean more power. I doubt he will ever be a 20 HR a year hitter but you never know since he is still developing and will play at CBP. (Anyone notice how many homers Chase Headley averages?)

    I think Adam Morgan is going to be a good MLB pitcher. It would be nice to have Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels as mentors. I was pretty excited when they drafted him since I am an SEC fan and alumni.

    I would hope Darrin Ruff gets a shit in spring training but baseball history is littered with players like him. It would be awesome if he could stick with the Phillies and produce. Reality is that Phillies brass knows alot more than we do.

    I hope I wrong but I have seen Larry Greene video and I really don’t like his swing and weight transfer. He is obviously a much better athlete than he gets credit for. I hope he gets good coaching and learns since he is so young and raw. That being said, I love Pointers swing and look where that has got him so far…

    Bold prediction: May will be in the starting rotation next year before the All Star break. Adversity is the best lesson anyone can get in baseball or life. Seems too mature and talented to not bounce back strong.

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  21. PhoulBalz Interview Excerpt with Ethan Martin:
    —Through your career, you’ve always posted big strike out numbers, with a 9.3 K/9 mark. What’s your pitch repertoire like and what do you consider your out pitch?….EM: I just consider slider or curve ball as my out pitch. I’ll throw a fast ball and try to get ahead with that, there’s pretty good life on it, so, you know, using that and then the slider and curve ball.
    —Where’s the velocity for you and what’s the drop-off when you throw the off-speed stuff?….EM: Fastball can range from 92 to 97 and I’ve hit 99 before, but I usually sit between 92 and 94. Then the slider’s like 84 to 86. And the curve ball’s like 78, so…
    —So we get the full evaluation of the pitch menu there. Other than that, though, what are some things you might cite if you were asked to scout yourself?….EM: My command. I’ve got to get that better. The walks are still there. They’re coming down a lot, but they’re still there, so I’ve gotta get control of that. I think once I get that, I should be a lot better off.

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    1. I was high on May until I heard a scout talk about his mechanics are bit out of sync and how it would be hard for him to consistently throw strikes. Biddle and Martin should be higher ranked that May after this year.

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    1. He broke out in 2012, check out his stats after the all star break this year. He was quoted as saying he was intentionally working on hitting everything to RF the first half and was then allowed to hit anywhere. I’d say it worked. Dugan and Franco both developed a lot this year on that team. Altherr, Hudson and Eldemire, not so much…

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  25. Aside from the excellent season by Asche, Dugan may have surprised us all by finally showing the talent lurking in him which is finally–post health/injury problems–giving us reason to believe he is really a valid prospect. The higher BA along with more than a dozen HRs shows that a draft choice may not have been wasted. He’s now near the uber-mendoza line of .300. Does anybody have a line on his outfielding?

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