189 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 8-13-2012”
Who are the top Latin guys we should be looking at in the GCL and DSL? I know Tocci is the big one who else is worth keeping an eye on. You guys post on some of them and I feel lost having no idea who they are, where they came from and if they are going to be a legit prospect eventually. I know a lot of them are young and it is a crap shoot but just thought it would be good to know the names to look for in the box scores. Can we maybe get a top 10 Latin prospects in the GCL and DSL?
Franklyn Vargas is the next best Latin prospect after Tocci. Too many walks, but performing well for a 17 year old in first professional season. Good swing and miss stuff for his age, and a lot of projectability with his size. Tall lefty.
Yoel Mecias has pitched well, with less fanfare. 18 year old, a tall and skinny lefty. Displaying decent control.
Herlis Rodriguez had a strong VSL last year at 17, but struggling in his first GCL season.
While not Latin, Tromp is an international signing, though he was just moved to WPT. Probably 3rd best international guy after Tocci and Vargas.
The rest of the guys are either relievers, older for the level,
Dom Brown eval. so far: He’s played pretty well. He makes a lot of contact, is very patient, has plus speed, and has been playing pretty good defense. He already has two assists. His approach to left-handers seems sound. His new stance has a lot less moving parts and it looks like he has all the tools to be a tremendous hitter. I’d like to see his power develop more and I’d like to see him start stealing bases. It could take a couple years for him to fully break out. But, it seems like Brown is going to stick in the big leagues this time. I’m happy for him. I think he has a chance to be better than anybody in the Phillies’s lineup right now. Only Utley is comparable to him in terms of combining patience, ability to hit for average, and power. Of course, Brown needs to put it all together. He has to take advantage of this opportunity. There is little pressure because the club is not focused on contending right now. Another demotion could ruin him.
With the recent trades at the deadline, the Phillies have really improved what was a depleted farm system. Picking up Martin & Joseph has allowed some players to move up to AAA. Reinforcements should start to be MLB ready when contracts are expiring on the parent club. Asche at 3rd, Hernandez at 2nd, Galvis/Quinn at short and Valle or Joseph at catcher. In the outfield, Brown, Myers, Franco maybe Gillis. Also pitching with Pettibone, Biddle, May, Martin.
Tom,
I agree with you. This makes next year a make or break year for the big club. RAJ must carefully fill in the missing pieces with an eye towards having the new guys be a part of the future. But, the key is that we could be a contender again next year with some key acquistions. After next season, you won’t have Utley, Halladay and potentially Chooch. As much as it pains me to say, what value will Chooch be to the Phils as a 35 year old backstop with an expiring contract??? Are they really going to sign him for 3 or 4 years at that age??
if you trust Amaro. From what he’s been saying, it seems as if he is intent on getting high priced vets which is the same failed strategy that plagues the team at the present time. They need good young, low salaried players. Amaro has not shown any aptitude for finding players like that.
Spot on, I think, Anon. I’ll add:
Dom did have some difficulty being, probably, over-aggressive on the base paths in LHV this season. I saw him get caught stealing a few times, picked off once or twice, and nabbed first-to-third when it wasn’t advisable. But the speed is there, so with some work it may be doable.
I’ve been happy with Dom so far. His defense definitely seems improved, and he’s been competent at the plate. I just hope he starts to take advantage of pitchers’ mistakes more often as he gets experience. Once he starts driving the ball he should be a really good all around player.
I think the stolen base thing comes from the front office, with his league injuries this year they want him to stay healthy and hitting. It will come back but I think they don’t want him worrying about too much
I don’t find it particularly worrisome. Brown has the tools, he needs to focus on bringing it together. I have heard before about his ‘lackadaisical’ play (the words used were he ‘doesn’t hustle’), but interpreted that play differently, as a young man playing not to make a mistake, one lacking confidence. Others have mentioned how now he has less pressure, in his more-than-adequate defensive play and solid offensive play. He is still young, and will make mistakes, like that double he almost got thrown out on on Saturday, but with confidence he is good.
The other stuff mentioned by the third scout-how the ball isn’t jumping off his bat like it used to, for instance-will probably return with time as he both fully recovers from his injuries and get his overall baseball timing back, and well as readjust to being in MLB.
Mostly though, I think he needs to continue to grow in his confidence, and be patient with himself, even if we fans and other scouts are not-so long as the PHILLIES remain patients with him! I think he is letting the game come to him, learning to trust in his abilities, rather than pressing or being overly cautious like before. He is playing it cool, which to some may seem ‘lackadaisical’. I’ve seen him enough to come to a different conclusion.
Another thought: I liked the first scouts’ take the most because it speaks to what we know for sure: the tools haven’t gone anywhere, he just has to put them together (and I have a similar opinion as he, that Brown will).
However, I can understand skepticism, and for those of that ilk, the 2nd scout’s take seems reasonable as well: can’t say for sure until he plays more , WITH the caveat that the tools haven’t gone anywhere, so he could still be good. Sure, he’s loss some luster as a prospect (or player, now), so some will, even should be cautious, but his ceiling (nor floor) has really changed.
I share some of scout #3’s concern. Brown is 6’5 and he hit for power in 2009 and 2010. Then he shortened his swing and hasn’t hit for power since.
Yeah, he had the wrist injury and other injury issues, and he’s been back and forth between the majors and AAA. But when you shorten your swing, it stands to reason that you’ll lose power. I’m still hoping it comes back, but there’s no guarantee it will.
Seemed to me that Hagen came to conclusions before filling in the details, even scout #3 was only skeptical, but the way Hagen framed it you would think you were about to get a Rizotti-esque dismissal of his major league potential. I like the Amaro quotes in there, it jives with what I’ve been thinking about Brown all along, and indicates that other quotes in the past which could be considered critical were more an attempt to send a message that Dom needed to hear. Now if only he would order Charlie to leave him in Leftfield! He won’t get his at-bats if he hurts himself crashing into that Rightfield wall. Keep it simple for him, put him in a position to succeed, I don’t give a !@#$% if we lose games with Juan Pierre or whoever else in Right.
Charlie Manuel has earned a lot of rope with his record of success. He has not earned the right to ruin young players who could help us win games long after he is retired.
There is clearly something about Brown that rubs media types the wrong way. I’ve seen and heard Hagen trash him numerous times. I rarely listen to their show, but earlier in the year Gargano and Macnow, who are quite player friendly by Philly standards, rag on him like they were talking about Marcus Vick. Now if he can’t get along with his teammates, that is another matter entirely, but I really could care less about how well athletes or coaches relate to the media. There is this meme that the media is the mouthpiece for the fans, and if you disrespect the media, then you are disrespecting the fans, but that is BS. How many times do you see reporters desperate for stories transparently trying to spark controversy? That stuff undermines teams. For all I care, Andy Reid could come to his press conferences with his mouth duct taped and just nod yes and no, it is his obvious inability to think on his feet that distresses me. Would people who obsess over his prickly demeanor not want Bill Belicheck as their coach for the same reason?
i have posted on here before showing my displeasure with brown! with that said i can say now that he looks like a much better player than when he first came ! he was patient before but now with his hands lower he’s not getting that fastball in to tie him up, and his fielding is vastly improved. i’m pulling for him bigtime now. he’s shown me that he worked on his weaknesses and now i can say. i’ll take back the things i’ve said about him. good job Dom Browm! glad you’re on board.
No hate for Julio on this board. He has swing and miss stuff but doesn’t have the plus fastball. Some guys feel he’s Cloyd Jr. I’m going to tout him until he fails. When or if he fails, I’ll throw the baby out with the bath water.
I’ve read a lot of it over time. Just the other day posters seriously proposing leaving him unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft because “no one would want him”.
As Bellman says…….
No hate, but he lives on a deceptive and unusual delivery versus pure stuff.
It is the type of thing that may not play as well higher or last as a given hitter seens him more and more.
We all are pulling for him, but there is a good chance he will not be good enough to excel at the highest levels despite good minor league numbers so far.
Julio is going to be a reliever. Mechanically I cannot see him repeating his motion enough to throw consistent strikes at the Major League Level. Hes not going to get away his lack of stuff if hes walking 4 a game.
He just flat out walks too many batters for the amount of pure stuff he has. Still young enough to get another tick of FB velocity, but until he throws strikes it really doesn’t matter.
Please don’t crucify me for this but could there be at least a small chance that Asche gets a September call up due to the enormous hole at third base next season? I understand he would have to be added to the 40 man.
I think that they would rather send him to the AFL or to LHV if they are in the playoffs and Reading is not. He isn’t quite ready and I think they want the 40 man spot open to protect from Rule V draft
Am pleased with Dom’s progress, waiting for him to unleash his prodigious power. I will take his at bats ahead of Pence’s any day of the week. When Dom gets his feet squarely on the ground, he will hopefully parlay his patience into power.
Glad someone brought up Brown and the patients he shows at the plate. So far I think we are getting some answers for next year. SO FAR….Brown looks like he can play everyday and hit 2. (as much as I hate Rollins as a leadoff hitter, you know that is where Manual will bat him) and, most importantly, Utley has his power back and can hit 3. Last year when he came back it looked like he lost most of his power and would be a good 2 hole hitter. Now I am convinced he can still hit 3. So the lineup would look something like this.
Rollins
Brown
Utley
Howard
RF
Ruiz/Kratz
CF/3B
3B/CF
Maybe the 8 hole hitter can be a Sheirholtz/Mayberry platoon (cheap)
Now the big dollars in the off season can be focused on a five hole hitter.
(if Utley was a two hole hitter and Brown looked like an 8 or 7 hole hitter than they would need two middle of the lineup guys)
So far so good, I hope both Brown and Utley finish strong
Brown will likely hit 6th next year, too many lefties in a row otherwise. The CF pickup will likely hit 2 or 5th and Mayberry/Schierholz cold be a RF platoon but it doesn’t excite. 3b?? That could be our 8 hole hitter.
Dont like the three lefties in a row. It makes the lineup very susceptible to left-handers, both starters and relievers. Even though they can all hit lefties to some extent. they are better against righties. For example, the threesome is hitting .189 against southpaws and .249 against right-handers this season.
Before we get too excited about Utley, remember that, based on 2011 and 2012, the big question is whether he will miss a third of the season or half the season.
C’mon man, why are you going to put Brown in the biggest situational hitting spot in the order? His future is in the middle of the lineup, you bat him 5,6 or 7, and obviously if Utley/Howard are 3/4, 5 is far from ideal. But at the same time, there is no need to be super ideological about it. If we were facing Kyle Kendrick on another team, why not get every left-handed bat you have in the lineup? Who cares about Loogy’s when you knock the other pitcher out of the game by the 3rd inning?
Then you may need to pinch hit for Howard, but I’m pretty sure Utley and Brown will hold their own. I say that kind of tongue in cheek, but people get way too carried away with trying to have the ideal lineup. Get your best players on the field and let the chips fall where they may. With Lefty Pitcher X on the mound, and your house on the line, would you rather have Utley or Kevin Frandsen batting?
Also the original post I responded to wanted 2-3-4 to be Brown/Utley/Howard, I was mainly saying that Brown’s development is best served somewhere down in the order.
I wish they would at least move Ruf up to LVH already. Maybe let Mayberry and Ruf battle it out for a platoon spot with Nix in left batting 7th, Brown in right batting second and either cheap 3B/CF in center batting 8th. Big bucks need to be spent on a 5 hole hitter. I’d like to bring Pierre back too as a bench guy. So many lefties. Maybe either Sheirholtz or Nix gets traded in the off season.
If that’s true, that means he’s org filler in this team’s eyes. If someone is a prospect, it’s never about piling up statistics or awards, or about his minor league team winning. It’s about the prospect’s development…always.
amaro made the comment in an article on philly.com the other day when asked about cloyd and ruf. he pissed me off to no end with his answer. and i’ve been a big defender of him. he said both cloyd and ruf are your classic “overachievers” WHAT! we’re in last or hovering just above it 19 and a half games back! last in the widcard, with just a little over a month and a half left to play. with a team full of underachievers! gimme a couple of overs guys! what the hell do they have to lose by bringing up cloyd AND ruf! none of this platoon stuff with ruff he’s 26. bring him up tell him just do what you do don’t try to be special! his L-R splits are damn good half his HR’s against rightys what more do you need to know .367 against lefty’s. and .281 against rightys.
If I remember that article, the “overachiever” comment was about Cloyd, and it was based on the fact that his numbers this season are better than his “stuff” would suggest. I think most people on this site would agree with this, although there is something to be said for giving him a few starts in the bigs and letting him audition.
I saw that and dismissed it out of hand. They don’t count for Brown’s injury time or the retooling of his swing. I wouldn’t worry about those comments too much. Brown is not an “average” guy as portrayed by those articles. He is pretty much already a good player and he has nowhere to go but up.
‘……I also see a guy who used to swing the bat with unbridled bat speed and the ball used to jump,” the scout said. “He’s not that extra-base, run-producing guy. He’s more just an average guy.”………I guess if he swings and misses with the past undridled bat-speed, he then becomes a ‘guy swinging from his heals’.
I love these articles that always seem to involve a “scout” as if they are the end all of all talent evaluation. Why don’t we just let the kid palay and evaluate him at seasons end?
Ruben has risen to GM status and managed to pick the worse bench maybe in Phillies history, so why would I care what someone calling themselves a scout has to say when I can see for myself as can everyone on this blog.
No way, the bench was far worse during the team’s glory days a few years ago. They just got lucky. Any team that has Eric Bruntlett as the back-up at multiple positions is playing with fire.
Mini Mart vs. Midgit Man Beard …. Not an argument I want to witness and Catch is right the bench this year is far better than it has been in the past. You can’t rely on 50+ starts at 2-3 positions (Counting the Nix/Mayberry platoon) in a year and expect your bench players to flourish
Eric Brunlett did, late in the season, help to save the 2008 season when he recorded a triple-play off a line drive up-the-middle rocket from the bat of Jeff Francouer. That goes through, the season could have turned and Lidge could have gone south.
Are you praising a guy for a line drive triple play? He caught a ball hit at him, stepped on a base and tagged a runner. That’s not skill. That’s extreme luck.
Bruntlett=Mmart
Chicken Licken says the TY is falling
Nix has lived up to his name 2fer11 PH not even as good as his
.216 average over the three past years.
Chad Squalls no comment needed
Pierre has been the best of a poor lot when batting second
THAT IS AS BAD AS IT GETS .
In maybe the best evidence yet of a season gone wrong, phuturephillies.com is having the age old Eric Bruntlett vs Michael Martinez debate. Tomorrow let’s make it Ricky Otero vs Sil Campusano.
Even his most optimistic writeups only had him as a 15-20 HR guy back a couple years ago. He’s simply not a big power bat. I’d happily take it as well.
Yeah, we want Darryl Strawberry, but if he becomes another Von Hayes, well, that’s a pretty darned good player and a hell of lot cheaper than Hunter Pence.
If it all clicks, he’s a 30-35 homer guy, with .380 OBP and a .525 slugging percentage. Basically, an outfield version of Chase Utley at his peak with a slightly worse average. if he does that, he’ll make the all-star team a few times.
Not likely, but certainly possible. When he was 24, I bet nobody ever thought Curtis Granderson was going to be a 40 homer guy. He had Brown’s kind of power in the minors. I’ll tell you what, when Brown learns how to turn on a pitch and drive it harder, it’s hard to say how many home runs he will hit. Right now, he’s doing what a young player should do – focusing on getting good at bats and putting his bat on the ball. But there’s more power inside that body than 20 homers. That’s Mayberry’s power and Brown can hit a ball farther than Mayberry and he makes far better conact too.
even in his call up last year, he showed good power. The homer he hit off Mota (I believe) was an absolute bomb. Upper deck in left center field. The power is there, he just hasn’t figured out how to consistently turn on the ball and drive it
but he is not squaring the ball up yet, so how can you tell? For goodness sakes give him some time. It isn’t even like he has been playing all year in AAA to get totally comfortable with his adjustments. I hate to make this comparison, but your dismissal makes it necessary: by your logic Chase Utley should have never have hit for power. You make it seem like he is choking up and chopping at the ball like Wee Willie Keeler. The fact that Brown was able to hit at AA and AAA with his old ridiculous stance (as well as my own eyes) tells me that he has lightning quick hands.
I would guess that Ruf goes up, but that might be wishful thinking, as it seems at this point they want Ruf in AA for whatever purpose – defensive work or team cohesion towards the playoffs, or whatever it might be. I won’t be surprised if they bring Jake Fox back up to AAA now and just roster move JRod back when it’s his turn in the AA rotation, then fill the AAA hole with a pitcher from wherever, (Friend again, perhaps).
What are some new names that you guys think could end up in our outfield? I’m not big on Bourn for the price he will most likely be asking. What about Melky?
Someone had speculated that it could be a 2011 draft signee who has to be signed for 1 full calendar year before he can be dealt. There was a name attached to that notion, but I don’t recall off the top of my head. That anniversary could be coming up in a couple days, (8-15 was last year’s deadline day).
The Good Phight @TheGoodPhight
Legends RT @RPhilsPR Ruf is now ninth all-time among single-season HR leaders. Tied with Mike Costanzo, Tagg Bozied, and Randy Ruiz at 27 HR.
Well he needs 10 more for Howard’s record, I almost believe they wouldn’t let him break it. There is no way he can keep current pace and hit 17. But 10 in 21 games is possible if he stays hot.
The Marlins stadium is hideous. What is that stupid thing in the outfield that spits water. All that green. They haven’t done one thing right all year.
Asche now up to .260 BA…he was at .220 only 2 wks ago. Hard-charging guy. Maybe up to .280 by season’s end. Then off to the AFL. Bust guy. After Wlmsprt in ’11 with very mediocre hitting, he has traveled up the ladder unexpectedly quickly one season later.. Even to the AFL which is often a last stop before MLB. This is a spectacular rise.
Save 3b for him…most probably at ’13s mid-season…or even before if he has a good spring training. IMO, RAJ has this possibility in mind, and may be why he’ll concentrate on righty outfielders post season and be ready to open with Galvis at 3rd…with Asche to come up later on.
What seemed impossible only 3 months ago now seems a possibility…enough so to stifle any 3rd baseman signing over the winter.
Asche’s minor league resume still compares unfavorably to just about every ML regular 3B. I don’t see how RAJ can count on him until at least 2014 and that’s optimistic.
+1 I’m not sure the magic number of AB’s in the Minors but Asche I would guess has 1 more full season at Reading and another full season at LHV before he gets a shot at being the everyday 3B.
Not saying that is right just how our org seems to operate. He is still just 22! I have to laugh when I say that anymore knowing Mike Trout and Harper are just 20 and 19 respectively.
Sadly, I saw the Astros AA Team play yesterday, yes, the one with Jonathan Singleton, Jonathan Villar, Josh Zeid, and Formerly Jarred Cosart plus soon to be Domingo Santana. Villar and Zeid are DL’d but I was cringing while watching Singleton play, he most certainly could be our solution in Right or Left Field. For any Sabermetric guys? Is there a stat that could show how many games we won because of Oswalt and Pence, because we could sure use those prospects now. Also, thoughts on September callups??? Ruf, Cloyd, DeFratus, Aumont, Diekman, Savery. Maybe Gillies, Valle, Hernandez, and Pettibone?
I was surprised, Singleton is much faster than he was with the Phillies, he has slimmed down a bit. He went first to third just as good as anybody in the Phils system granted Quinn, James, Gillies, and a couple more. He is a smart baserunner, not a fast baserunner, he makes up for average speed very well. But if he would have remained in the system he could have work more on the corner outfield spots opposed to now where he is exclusively working at first.
Laugh at the continued weeping over Singleton. He’s not going to play LF in the majors and at 1b, he is an average bat. He is a Sabermetric dream in that he hits for average and takes walks but he’s not going to be a traditional run-producing power hitter at the position.
Singleton has a good chance of becoming a productive ML player but he’s not a future star. He’s skill set reminds me a bit of Adam Laroche who has been a solid major leaguer but never an all-star.
Singleton will very likely produce more WAR at first over the course of Howard’s contract than Howard will, at a fraction of the cost. And yes, that’s giving Howard a head start (he’s not doing much with it so far).
Huh? Word is Singleton will start next year in AAA and probably come up mid-season. Then he has 3 years of costing pennies and the first year of arbitration. That takes him through the end of Howard’s contract.
So yes, I expect he’ll cost a fraction of the $95 million Howard will be paid the next 4 years, and I would take even odds that he outproduces Howard in that span. In fact, I think the odds are a good bit better than even. If you throw in Singleton’s 2017 production, when Howard has a $23 million club option with a $10 million buyout, I’m even more confident.
Since I’m not a supporter of the Howard contract either at the time it was signed or not, I’m certainly not going to defend it. Point is that I don’t see Singleton becoming the future star that others do. Time will tell if that opinion is right or wrong.
Your post impelled me to give his numbers another look and do some comps. I cried a little.
He is currently hitting very well in AA in his age 20 season. I would certainly not place any kind of limits on what kind of player he might become. Just to do one comp, Joey Votto was in A and A+ in his age 20 season. He was in AA for his age 22 season, granted more impressive – but not much more impressive – than Singleton’s current season, but two years older. Considering age/level, Singleton this year is more impressive. More to the point in terms of your comment, Votto’s minor league HR totals are comperable to Singleton’s; hitting as many as HR as Singleton has at that age/level is indicative of more power than you give him credit for (though the Laroache comparison is a curious one, as most of his value is tied to the fact that he hits HRs).
Now, I’ll admit that the Votto comp is a little unfair in that Votto was something of a late bloomer, and i’m not saying he is going to turn into Joey Votto. But I’d bet that Votto ends up being a better comp than Laroche.
I agree. Maybe through Valle on the list since he would be the 3rd catcher. I would also say Gillies to add depth in the OF but I don’t think they want to reward him.
I thought Phillies were supposed to have a good bench at start of the season: Thome, Wigginton, Mayberry/Nix, with crappy Schnieder and Galvis/Martinez/Orr. and Pierre in for Howard early.
The key word is “supeposed” put out by the Phils media. Galvis was the only respectable player . Pierre in a offensive way. Sorta
That list hardly inspires confidence. Schnieder was a particularly bad choice because he was visible and going downhill .
Nix has an OPS of almost .800. Pierre has been fantastic. Thome got traded for way better than expected specs. Galvis was pretty freaking solid. Mayberry has BEEN A STARTER ALL SEASON. Martinez broke a freaking bone. It’s a freaking bench. What do you guys think Major League benches look like in the Majors. This isn’t the NBA or NFL. You don’t have a 6th man or a 3rd down rushing end. If he’s good enough, he starts.
Some have speculated that team is waiting for the “one year to expire before trading” thing for draft choices in what would , in this case , be the 2011 draft. Maybe even somebody team connected implied as much.
I see 5 late signees from that draft for the Dodgers:
1st Round – 8/12/11- Chris Reed, LHP, born 5/20/90. 6’4 195, from Stanford, born London, England
4th Round- 8/16/11- Ryan O’Sullivan, RHP, born 8/15/90 , 6’2 190, from Oklahoma City
6th Round- 8/15/11- Scott Barlow, RHP, born 2/8/92, 6’3 170, USHS
9th Round- 8/15/11- Tyler Ogle, C, B-R T-R, born 8/9/90, 5’11 193, Oklahoma
36th Round- 8/20/11- Kevin Taylor, 2B, B-L T-R, born 7/13/91, 6′ 200, from JC
It may be they will not have given up too good of a prospect, and yet it will be one Philly would want and accept in the trade. I don’t see much for taking the last 2 position players, and maybe
they won’t give up the younger pitcher or their 1st round pick, so maybe they get O’Sullivan. That’s my guess.
They could also be taking time scouting players from a list provided by the Dodgers. Last year the Phils gave Houston their choice of anyone in Lakewood, and they took their time before selecting Domingo Santana.
Interesting article on Dom Brown on Sportsweek from philly.com. The link is:http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/166000956.html?page=2&c=y Three different scouts with varying opinions are quoted. Personally, I am impressed that Brown is one of only two Phillies (the other is Juan Pierre) who have more BBs than Ks. The Phillies really need some guys who put the ball in play and see some pitches. Hope he can keep it up and the power will come.
You read this crap and you feel like you’re Billy Beane in the Moneyball movie meeting with the scouts where they’re talking a guy not having confidence because his girlfriend is ugly. If these guys can’t figure out that Brown is good right now, has shown clear improvement and has significant upside, what can you say? They really sound like ignorant dopes and they clearly have no clue about important things like plate discipline.
Excerpt review of International Signing Rules: Ben Badler’s article, May 2012.
Every team has a $2.9 million signing bonus pool for the 2012-13 signing period. Any team that spends more than $2.9 million will be subject to a variety of penalties:
• Teams that go 0-5 percent over will pay a 75 percent tax on the overage.
• Teams that go 5-10 percent over will pay the 75 percent tax on the overage and won’t be able to sign more than one player for a bonus of more than $500,000 in the 2013-14 signing period.
• Teams that go 10-15 percent over will pay a 100 percent tax on the overage and won’t be able to sign any player for a bonus of more than $500,000 in the 2013-14 signing period.
• Teams that go 15 percent or more over will pay a 100 percent tax on the overage and won’t be able to sign any player for a bonus of more than $250,000 in the 2013-14 signing period.
The 2012-13 signing period begins July 2, 2012 and ends June 15, 2013. The dates from June 16, 2013 through July 1, 2013 will be considered a “closed period” when no one will be able to sign. MLB said it will need time to calculate each team’s total spending and potential penalties. Also, due to the new mandatory registration system, the commissioner’s office will need time to prepare and disseminate information about registered players to clubs.
The $2.9 million bonus pool does have a few exemptions that will allow a team to spend a little bit more. A team’s six highest signing bonuses of $50,000 or less will not count toward its total. For 2012-13, players signed for $7,500 or less also won’t count (in 2013-14 that number goes up to $10,000). So there’s enough wiggle room to spend up to $3.2 million without facing any penalties. All players must sign a standard minor league contract, so no major league deals are allowed.
The bonus pool limits probably won’t affect the majority of teams, because only a handful have gone well beyond $2.9 million-$3.2 million in 2011 or in 2010. Teams like the Rangers, Blue Jays, Royals, Pirates and Cubs may have to scale back, but even those teams will have to make small adjustments rather than drastic changes.
The international signing pool includes any player not subject to the draft, which includes anyone from outside the United States, Canada or Puerto Rico—with a couple of exemptions. One is that any player who had previously signed with a major league club will not be subject to the bonus pool. It’s a corollary to the draft rule, where if a player has already signed with a team out of the draft, he’s no longer draft eligible and any contract he signs thereafter will not count against an organization’s draft bonus pool. So a Dominican player released out of Triple-A who signs as a minor league free agent won’t have his contract count against his new team’s international pool.
The other exemption involves players coming to MLB from foreign professional leagues. Players who are at least at least 23 and have played five years in a recognized professional league, such as Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, will be exempt.
For the next two years, Cubans will be exempt as long as they are 23 and have played in a Cuban professional league for at least three seasons. Beginning in 2014-15 Cubans must have five years of pro experience to be exempt. So if Yoenis Cespedes had still been unsigned by July 2, he would have been exempt from the new rules anyway, where 20-year-old outfielder Jorge Soler will be subject to the new rules unless he can get all of his paperwork pushed through and sign before July 2.
FWIW, and with the ussual caveat about defensive metrics, especially in SSS, those metrics strongly support the subjective observations about Brown’s defensive improvement. He went from a projected 26 defensive runs below average over 150 games – as bad as his worst detractors claimed – to a projected 18 defensive runs above average over 150 games. A 44 defensive runs per 150 games turn around.
I’m inclined to think that the reality isn’t quite that positive – but certainly he has made a dramatic defensive turn around. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain that mow that he is back in right.
Why do you think that the turn around isn’t as grand? Before he was called up to the phillies, over his entire minor league career it was expected he would profile as above average defensively. For nearly 5 years he was called a 5 tool player… then suddenly, after being called up, he looked like a “less” toolsy player whose defensive tools were not just no longer plus, but actually significantly below average.
Not that I think he’s currently a plus defender, but if you told a scout “over his first 500 at-bats he would go from significantly below average to slightly above average defensively”, the scout would have said “that makes sense”, or even “I expect he’ll end up above average over the next 1000 AB’s.”
His current performance, projected over a season – looking just at the defensive metrics – is near gold glove caliber. 18 defensive runs above average is pretty darn good. I don’t think he is there yet. I also think the metrics probably exagerate (slightly) just how bad he was last year. A 44 defensive run turn around (on a 150 game basis) is just a little too much to accept as entirely “real.” But I do think that “significantly below average to slightly above average defensively” is accurate.
Ah nice, I didn’t fully appreciate that 18+ defensive runs. I am glad to hear he’s doing well in more then just the “eye test”. My biggest worry with him is the lack of power lately…
Yeah, even will the SSS, the lack of power is starting to be a concern. I’m actually starting to wonder if messing with his swing was really the right move. Sometimes messy looking swings are more effective. His hitting last year was not that bad, especially considering the injury. But patience, patience.
There was a comment a couple days ago about how Amaro needs to be better at “finding” good young players. That’s pretty silly unless that was an awkwardly phrased may of criticizing his skill in supervising the scouting and minor league development operations (and even that would IMO be unfair), because of course by far the biggest source of “good young players” consists of developing talent internally, and almost all of the exceptions to that are players traded by contenders to non-contenders for veteran players (and the Phillies have lately been successful enough that they have quite properly been on the other side of those transations).
But my purpose is not to mock a silly comment. Rather I want to talk a little bit about the other, very rare, ways to acquire good young talent. Which basically come down to rule 5 and non-tender candidates. And of course true successes in those areas are rare and to a large extent a matter of luck. Perhaps Phillies fans don’t realize this, since in the past 10 years they have probably had the most success with these types of players, acquiring 2 now departed all star outfielders through those means.
Of course expecting to get good young players that way is a fool’s strategy. But there is one non tender candidate that I kind of hope the Phillies take a flier on. His chance of turning it around is probably less than 30%, but he probably could be had cheaply, was once a very highly regarded prospect, is only 27, and could possibly fill the hole at third base in the short term, given the lack of other decent options (no, Asche is not the answer in 2013).
Laugh at me if you will, but with people seriously suggesting bringing back Polanco, I think this could be a low risk, potentially high reward signing, assuming he is non-tendered: Ian Stewart. If he isn’t good enough to be a regular, he has enough positional flexibility to be a bench guy.
Agree…..Stewart could be a valuable asset, if he straightens out whatever has been derailing him these last few years. In Colorado , at the start of his career there was so much promise for the man.
I’m sorry. I’ve heard all you guys all year long speak weakly about Ruf. Jake Fox gets moved to Lehigh and Ruf stays behind? You all can talk about Ashe all you want , and he might someday be the hitter that Ruf is. And the defensive slams against Ruf are bogus. He won TWO gold gloves in college as the best defensive first baseman in the country. What? Did he forget how to catch? Even his manager who has seen him play the last two years raves about his defense.
This is clearly a case of scouts protecting their jobs. They rated this kid low. And now that he is outperforming all the other higher rated “prospects”, they won’t admit that maybe they were wrong.
BS.
Like the scene from the movie “Moneyball”, when Beanne says to his top scout … “you think you know, but you don’t”.
Another 2-run HR tonight. Reward the kid already ! Jeeeez.
Thought I’d do a seasonal stock up/stock down for prospects in full season ball. Going to consider solid prospects, and marginal prospects separately. Will ignore non-prospects. This is off the top of my head, so comments/corrections welcomed.
Solid (essentially, started year in PP’s top 30)
Up
Biddle – was #1 for PP, but not on most lists. Will likely be #1 this year.
Glavis and graduated
Franco – second half so good that he went from maybe marginally down to up
Wright – way up
Hernandez – a little up
Schwimmer – and graduated
Morgan – way, way up
Same
Pettibone
Colvin
DeFratus
Aumont
Bonilla – generous
Gillies – further injuries & suspension countered by decent numbers after essentially a 2 year layoff
JRod – some would argue down; I say, I never was on the band wagon to begin with
Castro –
Altherr
Down
May
Valle – could be “same,” but the stagnant (and very poor) BB % and mediocre power make him look increasingly like a guy who will top out as a back up.
James –
Hyatt
Garner
Martinez
Giles
Manzanillo
Marginal
Up
Asche – marginal no longer
Ruf – still marginal
Cloyd – still marginal
Kratz
Hudson
Rupp
Same
Collier – was up, but falling back
Villalobos
Down
JC Ramirez
Mitchell
Eldemire
This surprised me. i would have thought the ratio of up to down would have been better.
It was exhaustive enough that I thought you actually left him off purposely. But he should get a stock up.
I think I’d drop Bonilla. I assume you noted it was generous to leave him as the same because of his move to the bullpen, and I’d agree with that. I like him a lot but he just doesn’t have the same value as a reliever.
You seemed to have skipped the low minors, understandable since you can’t compare them to last year, with the exception of Tocci. who I would have included on this list. 🙂
I said “full season ball” – and I really didn’t put as much thought into it as I should have. Still, I think it holds up pretty well, aside from a couple obvious in retrospect errors and a couple of otherwise controversial choices.
If we included short season ball, the picture gets rosier.
I disagree on Pettibone staying the same. He made the jump to AA which is the hardest promotion in the minors and did so well he was promoted again to AAA. That’s huge.
Can’t resist two comments related to yesterday’s Phillies game.
1. The first Marlins run (in several games) was scored on a fly ball that fell in front of Brown in right field. It looked very catchable, but Brown took a route that left him behind the ball instead of under it. He played it safe, but it was a bad play and got the Marlins started. Halladay didn’t look too happy.
2. This year the Phillies bullpen has shown that velocity is overrated. Qualls had good velocity, but couldn’t get anybody out. Rosenberg can hit 97 mph, but his ERA is now over 12. Schwimer can throw hard, and has had his moments, but appears to have trouble pitching late in games. Meanwhile, Valdes and Horst do not throw very hard, but have been much more effective (I am aware that they are lefties so a somewhat lower velocity is acceptable) because they have better command.
SIFPA, agree with you 100% on your second point but you will have to accept that Brown will make mistakes(if he did on that hit) occasionally in the field and ask if Pence would have gotten it. Maybe Roy was mad at himself for getting the ball up enough for the batter to lift it.
Schwim and Rosenberg are still young guys though. I don’t have any real problem with them struggling right now. Schwimer had actually been doing a lot better the last month or so, and the ball that dropped in front of Mayberry yesterday probably should have been caught and ended the inning right there.
Bob Nightengale, USA Today on PED Usage in Baseball:
‘….the new drug du jour is synthetic testosterone, not steroids, and it might be rampant throughout Major League Baseball. Victor Conte, founder of the infamous Bay Area Laboratory Co-operative (BALCO) that brought down some of sports’ biggest names, says as many as 50% of major league players are using illegal performance-enhancing drugs. He has no proof, of course, but says he talks with players and that they have no reason to lie to him. “I’m not going to name names, but I’ve talked to a lot of top players in Major League Baseball, and they tell me this is what they’re doing,” Conte said. “There is rampant use of synthetic testosterone in Major League Baseball.”
It’s easy, Conte said, to use testosterone without being caught. Take it before you go to sleep, and by the time you get to the ballpark the next day, your testosterone level is too low to register a blip on the drug screen.
“We’ve known for a period of time that fast-acting testosterone is a logical choice for athletes who are willing to break the rules in order to win,” says Travis Tygart, CEO of the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency. “To some extent it’s a performance-enhancing drug of choice because it significantly reduces the risk of being caught.”
Said Conte: “It’s so easy to circumvent (a drug test). I call it the ‘duck-and-dodge’ system. The only people that get caught are the dumb and the dumber.”
No one is giving Cabrera an IQ test these days, but he flunked the drug test he took last month.
Cabrera not only admitted he took testosterone, he also didn’t bother going through the appeal process.
He becomes the fourth major league player suspended for drug use this season. And if you dare believe Conte, there are hundreds out there who are beating the system every day.
“There’s such a loophole, you really wonder if Major League Baseball has a genuine interest in stopping these guys,” Conte says.
MLB officials, incensed by that statement, will go to their graves insisting they want a clean sport and have the most stringent testing of any U.S. sport. If they didn’t care, they wouldn’t have caught Cabrera, come up with a positive test on National League MVP Ryan Braun last winter or ruined Rafael Palmeiro’s legacy in 2005 after he got his 3,000th hit.
“Does that mean there is nobody out there trying to beat the system?” MLB executive vice president Ron Manfred asks. “No, it doesn’t mean that. It means that we’re doing everything humanly possible to catch people. We use the very best, most sophisticated methodologies that are available
Random note: Has anyone seen the ESPN films documentary called “The Dotted Line”, about the role of agents in sports? In a part of the film, they’re interviewing an agent prominent in Venezuela and at one point he goes to see one of the Phillies 2011 spring training games to check out Freddy Galvis. It’s pretty cool, they go to a restaurant with Freddy, as well as Cesar Hernandez, JC Ramirez, and I believe Harold Garcia. At one point I saw Domonic Brown and could’ve sworn I saw Carlos Tocci (in Venezuela, not at Spring Training of course, this was well before he signed.)
I think Kratz has won the back up catcher’s job. Nix is signed. it’s hard to imagine them non-tendering Schierholtz. So that’s 2 or 3 of 5 right there, depending upon whether Schierholtz is a platton regular. An infielder – as much as some people have exagerated expectations of a reserve infielder, I certainly hope it won’t be Martinez. Of course it will be Galvis, assuming he is healthy, unless he is the regular at third (I hope not).
That leaves one or two spots. Mayberry has probably earned a spot, maybe as a Schierholtz platoon partner. Yeah, I know that sounds uninspiring. I think most of the available payroll goes to securing a center fielder; the remaining amount would not be enough to secure a left fielder who would be any better than the decent and cheap Schierholtz/Mayberry platoon.
That leaves one spot. Manuel has been making noices about resigning Pierre, which I am sure won’t make many people here happy. My guess is that the popular chocie for that last spot will be Ruf. Maybe it will even happen. Perhaps more likely is a cheap FA sign. There is always chance that they exercise the Wiggington option; let’s hope not.
That strikes me as pretty solid. Of course, next year’s team success will depend more upon filling in the CF and 3B holes, finding a better 5th starter than Kendrick, the health of the older veterans, and, to a much lesser extent, sorting out the bullpen (with better health and perhaps Aumont and DeFratus, I don’t see that being a problem next year).
All this, of course, assumes no big off season trades, which could effect the bench as well. I’m inclined to think that they will and should pretty much stand pat. heresy perhaps on a team that is old and falling out of contention, but both types of trades they could reasonably make – tear it down trades, and win now trades – strike me as unwise for very different reasons. There won’t get good value for the aging veterans, and they shouldn’t further mortgage the future by trading prospects to try to eek out one more WS run (which could happen anyway, with health and luck and one good FA sign). The one possible exception is trading for a thrid baseman.
I would start with Kratz, course said the same last offseason, only for the re-signing of Schneider.
Then I go Frandsen, bats R, can fill at 1B,2B, 3B and some SS.
Then I go Galvis, main at SS and go work in with Frandsen at 3B.
Then all they need at 3B is a starter, and with what they can pay there, they can go with a 3 headed monster, until they can develop one.
OF- hard to know who starts, I see they might want Pierre. A variation on the pinch hitter only theme. Except for the hit and hit for power thing , you get hit singles and run thing.
Until further notice Laynce Nix is in.
Don’t like the OF reserves, the OF , that’s a quandry.
You are concerned about ‘finding a better 5th starter than Kendrick’…my main pitching concern is the higher rotation guy like Cliff Lee, if in fact he is back and not traded. Being 34 and seemingly hot and cold this year, not sure what to make about 2013 with him as the 2 or 3. Hoping the Rangers falter in the playoffs and a frustrated Nolan Ryan decides to go for him this off season, and anties up to get him.
Lee traded means that Kendrick is the 4th starter. Not liking that at all. I also like Lee going forward a lot more than you do, so that’s part of it. Also, this year at least, it’s not like there is ton of attractive free agents to spend the money on. Finally, I don’t think you get all that much for him, despite the above, because of his salary.
The only way it makes sense to trade Lee is if the team goes into 100% rebuilding mode, which won’t and shouldn’t happen.
Good news for those who think they make a major free agent signing. With the PHILA loss last night they moved below Seattle for the 10th worst record. Seattle has one more win. With that, they would not lose a first round choice with a Major Signing. They would with the 11th worst record , so Good news for you.
However, perusing the Free Agent list,of those currently on, I would say Most would cost too much, or are not worthy of tendering and would not provide enough to justify their signing over a minimum salary player, given considerations going forward.
Marfis, I am somewhat sympathetic to the argument that the big name FAs are not worth going after this season. The problem is that your strategy would guarantee that there would no chance at the post season next year. Of course, even with a big FA signing, the team will need health and luck to contend. But I don’t think the team will throw in the towel next year before the season even starts by using ultra low cost options in LF, CF and 3B. Nor probably should they, unless the bidding gets too crazy for the top names. The have enough payroll flexibility to over pay a little.
One thing which I find amusing is that, once you get past Bourn and Hamilton, the one guy that maybe makes the most sense as a relatively low cost option that could give you better than average production in center is our old friend Victorino. I will say this – if indeed they are going to sit the FA market out this year, then they should have held onto Vic and offered him the 12 million one year contract.
Perhaps I exaggerated a bit, in the “no options beyond the top guys” thing. There’s a couple of good platoon type OF’s I like and might fill a role. But , then since you need likely frequent fill-ins at all 4 INF positions, that seems to indicate they have at least 2 INF reserves plus a Catcher on the bench, so it may be interesting to see the solution in the OF.
I believe the last thing I saw on MLBTR said that tenders would be likely to be in the $13.5 million a year slot to garner a draft pick. I guess they could bring Victorino back for less than that. That doesn’t do much for the aging roster issue, however.
It seems to be pretty evident that the Phillies core of players from the 2006/2007 era-present is on the decline for the most part. I expect that Rollins, Utley, Howard, Ruiz, Lee and Halladay only have 2-3 years left in the tank if even that with some of these guys.
That being said, I don’t think the Phillies should completely start rebuilding by starting guys like Ruf, Hernandez, etc., next year. I think in order for the Phillies to be a contender next year, they should gradually begin to incorporate their young talent into the team. I think every team needs young players who are not only getting experience for the future, but are hungry to win, i.e. the Nationals.
I think that the Phillies should seriously consider moving Chase Utley to left field. Utley would only need to be an average defensive outfielder and I think it would tremendously preserve his knees by playing out there. Then, they can move Galvis to second base and maybe try to trade for Adrian Beltre to play third. The Rangers now have Olt up in the big leagues and I could definitely see them putting Beltre on the trade block. Beltre could be an excellent stop gap at third base for a couple of years while guys like Asche and Franco are developing. Then, I would try to go after Bourn, but if the price tag is too high for him, go after a guy like B.J. Upton or Shane Victorino for a 2-3 year deal if they can’t find long term deals.
Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Worley have pretty much locked up the 1-2-3-4 in the rotation, barring any trades, but I think the Phillies have a lot of interesting options for the 5 spot in their rotation. Kendrick obviously seems to be the favorite due to the 2 year deal he signed in the past off-season, but I think he’s better suited as a long reliever. I would be much more interested to see guys like Pettibone or Cloyd duke it out for the 5 spot in spring training and I think that would be much better considering the future.
The bullpen has possibly been the biggest problem for the Phillies this season. Lindblom hasn’t really impressed me that much, but I can still see him being in the mix. A lot of these younger power arms that have come up have been really unimpressive, but I suppose the potential is still there. I’d love to see the Phillies bring back Madson for a 1 year deal to be the set up man. He was fantastic in that role last year and hopefully Stutes will be ok when he comes back.
Seems like the guys you mentioned might be considered a long term issue, maybe not. After next season, Utley and Halladay can become Free Agents, Lee- they could have unloaded the entire contract for nothing to Dodgers if they wanted, theoretically they could not pick up Ruiz’s option if they wanted this offseason- and after next season the contract expires. Then after next season, I believe Rollins could go. And then there’s Howard, who over the 3 some years after this one, despite some beliefs contrary, I believe can still hit for power, so they can think up a “no Howard in line-up” strategy for when he is unavailable, and look for a complementary line-up when he is . So, I believe they kept those guys they have now, because they want to, and they can keep them going forward, solely because they want to ,, also.
Beltre- I don’t believe they will trade him, partly because they have places to move people to like DH, 1B, and some OF spots. Even if they did, a 3B is very valuable due to the shortage, and it would cost an arm and a leg prospect-wise.
Halladay, Lee, Ruiz, Howard and Utley have the potential of lasting at least another 2-3 years, depending on their performances next year. Like I said, gradually incorporate the minor league prospects into the team and take it year-by-year.
The Rangers have Mitch Moreland, Michael Young, Mike Olt and Adrian Beltre to fill in at DH, 1B, and 3B. They might need to free up some salary as well if they want to extend Hamilton this offseason and stay under the luxury tax. Maybe Michael Young is a better idea? I have no idea what his contract situation is, but that seems like a possibility. I doubt the Phillies would have to give up as much as they would for Beltre considering Young’s older and is having an off year.
I just looked at it and saw that he’s got a year left on his contract and if the Rangers ate some of his contract, I can’t see how he’d be that terrible of a stopgap third baseman for a year.
If he is as bad as he has been this year, I wouldn’t take him if the Rangers paid his whole salary and we got him in a cash only transaction, with no players or prospects changing hands. Galvis would be a much better option, and I don’t think he is much of an option.
If he played like he did prior to this season, he could be a decent stop gap – but, aside from the fact that counting on a return to form from a player in this 30s, the Rangers are not likely to just give him away. On the very unlikely chance that the Rangers pay 2/3 of his salary and take only a third tier prospect in exchange, I would take a chance on him as a possible rebound candidate. But that isn’t going to happen.
I think that the Rangers might be interested in a deal where as you said, they would pay a large portion of his contract and only take a third tier prospect. He’s an older player who would just be a one year rental and the Rangers will probably need to get rid of one of those guys mentioned earlier.
Who are the top Latin guys we should be looking at in the GCL and DSL? I know Tocci is the big one who else is worth keeping an eye on. You guys post on some of them and I feel lost having no idea who they are, where they came from and if they are going to be a legit prospect eventually. I know a lot of them are young and it is a crap shoot but just thought it would be good to know the names to look for in the box scores. Can we maybe get a top 10 Latin prospects in the GCL and DSL?
LikeLike
Franklyn Vargas is the next best Latin prospect after Tocci. Too many walks, but performing well for a 17 year old in first professional season. Good swing and miss stuff for his age, and a lot of projectability with his size. Tall lefty.
Yoel Mecias has pitched well, with less fanfare. 18 year old, a tall and skinny lefty. Displaying decent control.
Herlis Rodriguez had a strong VSL last year at 17, but struggling in his first GCL season.
While not Latin, Tromp is an international signing, though he was just moved to WPT. Probably 3rd best international guy after Tocci and Vargas.
The rest of the guys are either relievers, older for the level,
LikeLike
Thanks. Whos is this Manuere guy? I have seen his name mentioned a lot (and remember it because I am curious if it pronounced like “manure”
LikeLike
A bit old for the GCL, was moved to WPT and has struggled a touch — but its early. A bit undersized too. Likely a “prove it at every level” guy.
LikeLike
thank you again!
LikeLike
Nate Schierholtz placed on 15 day DL- Hector Luna called up to Philly. Hopefully Ruf moved to Leigh Valley
LikeLike
Dom Brown eval. so far: He’s played pretty well. He makes a lot of contact, is very patient, has plus speed, and has been playing pretty good defense. He already has two assists. His approach to left-handers seems sound. His new stance has a lot less moving parts and it looks like he has all the tools to be a tremendous hitter. I’d like to see his power develop more and I’d like to see him start stealing bases. It could take a couple years for him to fully break out. But, it seems like Brown is going to stick in the big leagues this time. I’m happy for him. I think he has a chance to be better than anybody in the Phillies’s lineup right now. Only Utley is comparable to him in terms of combining patience, ability to hit for average, and power. Of course, Brown needs to put it all together. He has to take advantage of this opportunity. There is little pressure because the club is not focused on contending right now. Another demotion could ruin him.
LikeLike
With the recent trades at the deadline, the Phillies have really improved what was a depleted farm system. Picking up Martin & Joseph has allowed some players to move up to AAA. Reinforcements should start to be MLB ready when contracts are expiring on the parent club. Asche at 3rd, Hernandez at 2nd, Galvis/Quinn at short and Valle or Joseph at catcher. In the outfield, Brown, Myers, Franco maybe Gillis. Also pitching with Pettibone, Biddle, May, Martin.
LikeLike
Tom,
I agree with you. This makes next year a make or break year for the big club. RAJ must carefully fill in the missing pieces with an eye towards having the new guys be a part of the future. But, the key is that we could be a contender again next year with some key acquistions. After next season, you won’t have Utley, Halladay and potentially Chooch. As much as it pains me to say, what value will Chooch be to the Phils as a 35 year old backstop with an expiring contract??? Are they really going to sign him for 3 or 4 years at that age??
LikeLike
if you trust Amaro. From what he’s been saying, it seems as if he is intent on getting high priced vets which is the same failed strategy that plagues the team at the present time. They need good young, low salaried players. Amaro has not shown any aptitude for finding players like that.
LikeLike
Franco? 3B not OF.
LikeLike
They have no OF’s ready to step up to the big time next year, no 3B, and no starting pitchers.
LikeLike
Spot on, I think, Anon. I’ll add:
Dom did have some difficulty being, probably, over-aggressive on the base paths in LHV this season. I saw him get caught stealing a few times, picked off once or twice, and nabbed first-to-third when it wasn’t advisable. But the speed is there, so with some work it may be doable.
LikeLike
I’ve been happy with Dom so far. His defense definitely seems improved, and he’s been competent at the plate. I just hope he starts to take advantage of pitchers’ mistakes more often as he gets experience. Once he starts driving the ball he should be a really good all around player.
LikeLike
I think the stolen base thing comes from the front office, with his league injuries this year they want him to stay healthy and hitting. It will come back but I think they don’t want him worrying about too much
LikeLike
Good article by Paul Hagen on Brown: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/The_Wait_Show_When_does_Domonic_Brown_go_from_prospect_to_suspect_.html?page=2&c=y
LikeLike
Three scouts evals….No. 3 scout’s is particular worrisome.
LikeLike
I don’t find it particularly worrisome. Brown has the tools, he needs to focus on bringing it together. I have heard before about his ‘lackadaisical’ play (the words used were he ‘doesn’t hustle’), but interpreted that play differently, as a young man playing not to make a mistake, one lacking confidence. Others have mentioned how now he has less pressure, in his more-than-adequate defensive play and solid offensive play. He is still young, and will make mistakes, like that double he almost got thrown out on on Saturday, but with confidence he is good.
The other stuff mentioned by the third scout-how the ball isn’t jumping off his bat like it used to, for instance-will probably return with time as he both fully recovers from his injuries and get his overall baseball timing back, and well as readjust to being in MLB.
Mostly though, I think he needs to continue to grow in his confidence, and be patient with himself, even if we fans and other scouts are not-so long as the PHILLIES remain patients with him! I think he is letting the game come to him, learning to trust in his abilities, rather than pressing or being overly cautious like before. He is playing it cool, which to some may seem ‘lackadaisical’. I’ve seen him enough to come to a different conclusion.
LikeLike
Another thought: I liked the first scouts’ take the most because it speaks to what we know for sure: the tools haven’t gone anywhere, he just has to put them together (and I have a similar opinion as he, that Brown will).
However, I can understand skepticism, and for those of that ilk, the 2nd scout’s take seems reasonable as well: can’t say for sure until he plays more , WITH the caveat that the tools haven’t gone anywhere, so he could still be good. Sure, he’s loss some luster as a prospect (or player, now), so some will, even should be cautious, but his ceiling (nor floor) has really changed.
LikeLike
hasn’t changed, rather
LikeLike
I share some of scout #3’s concern. Brown is 6’5 and he hit for power in 2009 and 2010. Then he shortened his swing and hasn’t hit for power since.
Yeah, he had the wrist injury and other injury issues, and he’s been back and forth between the majors and AAA. But when you shorten your swing, it stands to reason that you’ll lose power. I’m still hoping it comes back, but there’s no guarantee it will.
LikeLike
Like I said earlier, I would settle for a 15/20 HR Brown as long as his OBP stays higher then the MLB average, and of course he plays a decent OF.
LikeLike
Seemed to me that Hagen came to conclusions before filling in the details, even scout #3 was only skeptical, but the way Hagen framed it you would think you were about to get a Rizotti-esque dismissal of his major league potential. I like the Amaro quotes in there, it jives with what I’ve been thinking about Brown all along, and indicates that other quotes in the past which could be considered critical were more an attempt to send a message that Dom needed to hear. Now if only he would order Charlie to leave him in Leftfield! He won’t get his at-bats if he hurts himself crashing into that Rightfield wall. Keep it simple for him, put him in a position to succeed, I don’t give a !@#$% if we lose games with Juan Pierre or whoever else in Right.
Charlie Manuel has earned a lot of rope with his record of success. He has not earned the right to ruin young players who could help us win games long after he is retired.
LikeLike
There is clearly something about Brown that rubs media types the wrong way. I’ve seen and heard Hagen trash him numerous times. I rarely listen to their show, but earlier in the year Gargano and Macnow, who are quite player friendly by Philly standards, rag on him like they were talking about Marcus Vick. Now if he can’t get along with his teammates, that is another matter entirely, but I really could care less about how well athletes or coaches relate to the media. There is this meme that the media is the mouthpiece for the fans, and if you disrespect the media, then you are disrespecting the fans, but that is BS. How many times do you see reporters desperate for stories transparently trying to spark controversy? That stuff undermines teams. For all I care, Andy Reid could come to his press conferences with his mouth duct taped and just nod yes and no, it is his obvious inability to think on his feet that distresses me. Would people who obsess over his prickly demeanor not want Bill Belicheck as their coach for the same reason?
LikeLike
i have posted on here before showing my displeasure with brown! with that said i can say now that he looks like a much better player than when he first came ! he was patient before but now with his hands lower he’s not getting that fastball in to tie him up, and his fielding is vastly improved. i’m pulling for him bigtime now. he’s shown me that he worked on his weaknesses and now i can say. i’ll take back the things i’ve said about him. good job Dom Browm! glad you’re on board.
LikeLike
Why all the Julio Rodriguez hate? He doesn’t turn 22 until the end of the month.
LikeLike
No hate for Julio on this board. He has swing and miss stuff but doesn’t have the plus fastball. Some guys feel he’s Cloyd Jr. I’m going to tout him until he fails. When or if he fails, I’ll throw the baby out with the bath water.
LikeLike
I’ve read a lot of it over time. Just the other day posters seriously proposing leaving him unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft because “no one would want him”.
Bizarre.
LikeLike
As Bellman says…….
No hate, but he lives on a deceptive and unusual delivery versus pure stuff.
It is the type of thing that may not play as well higher or last as a given hitter seens him more and more.
We all are pulling for him, but there is a good chance he will not be good enough to excel at the highest levels despite good minor league numbers so far.
LikeLike
Julio is going to be a reliever. Mechanically I cannot see him repeating his motion enough to throw consistent strikes at the Major League Level. Hes not going to get away his lack of stuff if hes walking 4 a game.
LikeLike
He just flat out walks too many batters for the amount of pure stuff he has. Still young enough to get another tick of FB velocity, but until he throws strikes it really doesn’t matter.
LikeLike
Please don’t crucify me for this but could there be at least a small chance that Asche gets a September call up due to the enormous hole at third base next season? I understand he would have to be added to the 40 man.
LikeLike
I think that they would rather send him to the AFL or to LHV if they are in the playoffs and Reading is not. He isn’t quite ready and I think they want the 40 man spot open to protect from Rule V draft
LikeLike
Not a chance in hell of that happening.
LikeLike
Am pleased with Dom’s progress, waiting for him to unleash his prodigious power. I will take his at bats ahead of Pence’s any day of the week. When Dom gets his feet squarely on the ground, he will hopefully parlay his patience into power.
LikeLike
Glad someone brought up Brown and the patients he shows at the plate. So far I think we are getting some answers for next year. SO FAR….Brown looks like he can play everyday and hit 2. (as much as I hate Rollins as a leadoff hitter, you know that is where Manual will bat him) and, most importantly, Utley has his power back and can hit 3. Last year when he came back it looked like he lost most of his power and would be a good 2 hole hitter. Now I am convinced he can still hit 3. So the lineup would look something like this.
Rollins
Brown
Utley
Howard
RF
Ruiz/Kratz
CF/3B
3B/CF
Maybe the 8 hole hitter can be a Sheirholtz/Mayberry platoon (cheap)
Now the big dollars in the off season can be focused on a five hole hitter.
(if Utley was a two hole hitter and Brown looked like an 8 or 7 hole hitter than they would need two middle of the lineup guys)
So far so good, I hope both Brown and Utley finish strong
LikeLike
Brown will likely hit 6th next year, too many lefties in a row otherwise. The CF pickup will likely hit 2 or 5th and Mayberry/Schierholz cold be a RF platoon but it doesn’t excite. 3b?? That could be our 8 hole hitter.
LikeLike
Dont like the three lefties in a row. It makes the lineup very susceptible to left-handers, both starters and relievers. Even though they can all hit lefties to some extent. they are better against righties. For example, the threesome is hitting .189 against southpaws and .249 against right-handers this season.
LikeLike
I would bat Ruiz 5th, brown 6th or 7th and maybe bring back victorino, if he can’t get a long term deal, to bat 2nd.
LikeLike
Mayberry sucks…time to move on without him
LikeLike
Before we get too excited about Utley, remember that, based on 2011 and 2012, the big question is whether he will miss a third of the season or half the season.
LikeLike
C’mon man, why are you going to put Brown in the biggest situational hitting spot in the order? His future is in the middle of the lineup, you bat him 5,6 or 7, and obviously if Utley/Howard are 3/4, 5 is far from ideal. But at the same time, there is no need to be super ideological about it. If we were facing Kyle Kendrick on another team, why not get every left-handed bat you have in the lineup? Who cares about Loogy’s when you knock the other pitcher out of the game by the 3rd inning?
LikeLike
What if you don’t knock out the other pitcher and you are trailing 3-2 and they bring in a Loogy?
LikeLike
Then you may need to pinch hit for Howard, but I’m pretty sure Utley and Brown will hold their own. I say that kind of tongue in cheek, but people get way too carried away with trying to have the ideal lineup. Get your best players on the field and let the chips fall where they may. With Lefty Pitcher X on the mound, and your house on the line, would you rather have Utley or Kevin Frandsen batting?
LikeLike
Also the original post I responded to wanted 2-3-4 to be Brown/Utley/Howard, I was mainly saying that Brown’s development is best served somewhere down in the order.
LikeLike
How’bout Ruf in LF, Brown in RF?
LikeLike
Maybe if Brown was demoted to Lehigh.
LikeLike
I wish they would at least move Ruf up to LVH already. Maybe let Mayberry and Ruf battle it out for a platoon spot with Nix in left batting 7th, Brown in right batting second and either cheap 3B/CF in center batting 8th. Big bucks need to be spent on a 5 hole hitter. I’d like to bring Pierre back too as a bench guy. So many lefties. Maybe either Sheirholtz or Nix gets traded in the off season.
LikeLike
Pierre can’t field and would need 718 ABs at his present rate to score 100 runs .He is a walking lie as well as last nights hero. lol
LikeLike
Wheels….tomorrow is his birthday, turns 36, any wishes?
LikeLike
I wish him a safe trip
LikeLike
Ruf has the real possibility of winning the Eastern League Triple Crown so maybe that is why he is still at Reading.
LikeLike
If that’s true, that means he’s org filler in this team’s eyes. If someone is a prospect, it’s never about piling up statistics or awards, or about his minor league team winning. It’s about the prospect’s development…always.
LikeLike
amaro made the comment in an article on philly.com the other day when asked about cloyd and ruf. he pissed me off to no end with his answer. and i’ve been a big defender of him. he said both cloyd and ruf are your classic “overachievers” WHAT! we’re in last or hovering just above it 19 and a half games back! last in the widcard, with just a little over a month and a half left to play. with a team full of underachievers! gimme a couple of overs guys! what the hell do they have to lose by bringing up cloyd AND ruf! none of this platoon stuff with ruff he’s 26. bring him up tell him just do what you do don’t try to be special! his L-R splits are damn good half his HR’s against rightys what more do you need to know .367 against lefty’s. and .281 against rightys.
LikeLike
If I remember that article, the “overachiever” comment was about Cloyd, and it was based on the fact that his numbers this season are better than his “stuff” would suggest. I think most people on this site would agree with this, although there is something to be said for giving him a few starts in the bigs and letting him audition.
LikeLike
Not to rain on anyone’s parade about Brown but here’s a scouts take on him since his promotion. http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20120810/SPORTS01/308100049/Brown-s-solid-progress-yet-impress-scouts
LikeLike
I saw that and dismissed it out of hand. They don’t count for Brown’s injury time or the retooling of his swing. I wouldn’t worry about those comments too much. Brown is not an “average” guy as portrayed by those articles. He is pretty much already a good player and he has nowhere to go but up.
LikeLike
‘……I also see a guy who used to swing the bat with unbridled bat speed and the ball used to jump,” the scout said. “He’s not that extra-base, run-producing guy. He’s more just an average guy.”………I guess if he swings and misses with the past undridled bat-speed, he then becomes a ‘guy swinging from his heals’.
LikeLike
Headline says he has yet to impress “scouts.” Story quotes a single scout who has only seen him on TV since his return to the big leagues.
LikeLike
I love these articles that always seem to involve a “scout” as if they are the end all of all talent evaluation. Why don’t we just let the kid palay and evaluate him at seasons end?
LikeLike
Ruben has risen to GM status and managed to pick the worse bench maybe in Phillies history, so why would I care what someone calling themselves a scout has to say when I can see for myself as can everyone on this blog.
LikeLike
No way, the bench was far worse during the team’s glory days a few years ago. They just got lucky. Any team that has Eric Bruntlett as the back-up at multiple positions is playing with fire.
LikeLike
Michael Martinez, probably the worst utility infielder of the last 50 years, scoffs at this assertion.
LikeLike
LOL! Good point. You got me there.
LikeLike
Mini Mart vs. Midgit Man Beard …. Not an argument I want to witness and Catch is right the bench this year is far better than it has been in the past. You can’t rely on 50+ starts at 2-3 positions (Counting the Nix/Mayberry platoon) in a year and expect your bench players to flourish
LikeLike
Eric Brunlett did, late in the season, help to save the 2008 season when he recorded a triple-play off a line drive up-the-middle rocket from the bat of Jeff Francouer. That goes through, the season could have turned and Lidge could have gone south.
LikeLike
Are you praising a guy for a line drive triple play? He caught a ball hit at him, stepped on a base and tagged a runner. That’s not skill. That’s extreme luck.
LikeLike
If I recall, it was also his error or errors that put the men on base to begin with. He was lucky to avoid being the goat in that game.
LikeLike
He made the play, luck or not. And it wasn’t hit AT him he went to his right a step or two and then to the bag.
LikeLike
He was the reason they were on base in the first place.
It was 2009 and Lidge was already really bad at that point in time. Next Pro Bruntlett play?
LikeLike
Bruntlett=Mmart
Chicken Licken says the TY is falling
Nix has lived up to his name 2fer11 PH not even as good as his
.216 average over the three past years.
Chad Squalls no comment needed
Pierre has been the best of a poor lot when batting second
THAT IS AS BAD AS IT GETS .
LikeLike
In maybe the best evidence yet of a season gone wrong, phuturephillies.com is having the age old Eric Bruntlett vs Michael Martinez debate. Tomorrow let’s make it Ricky Otero vs Sil Campusano.
LikeLike
If Dom can keep his OBP up, along with continued very good plate eye/discipline, I would settle for a 15/20 HR guy.
LikeLike
Even his most optimistic writeups only had him as a 15-20 HR guy back a couple years ago. He’s simply not a big power bat. I’d happily take it as well.
LikeLike
Yeah, we want Darryl Strawberry, but if he becomes another Von Hayes, well, that’s a pretty darned good player and a hell of lot cheaper than Hunter Pence.
LikeLike
If it all clicks, he’s a 30-35 homer guy, with .380 OBP and a .525 slugging percentage. Basically, an outfield version of Chase Utley at his peak with a slightly worse average. if he does that, he’ll make the all-star team a few times.
LikeLike
He will never be a 30-35 HR guy.
LikeLike
Not likely, but certainly possible. When he was 24, I bet nobody ever thought Curtis Granderson was going to be a 40 homer guy. He had Brown’s kind of power in the minors. I’ll tell you what, when Brown learns how to turn on a pitch and drive it harder, it’s hard to say how many home runs he will hit. Right now, he’s doing what a young player should do – focusing on getting good at bats and putting his bat on the ball. But there’s more power inside that body than 20 homers. That’s Mayberry’s power and Brown can hit a ball farther than Mayberry and he makes far better conact too.
LikeLike
even in his call up last year, he showed good power. The homer he hit off Mota (I believe) was an absolute bomb. Upper deck in left center field. The power is there, he just hasn’t figured out how to consistently turn on the ball and drive it
LikeLike
He completely changed his swing from that though…much shorter stroke now so he has less power.
LikeLike
but he is not squaring the ball up yet, so how can you tell? For goodness sakes give him some time. It isn’t even like he has been playing all year in AAA to get totally comfortable with his adjustments. I hate to make this comparison, but your dismissal makes it necessary: by your logic Chase Utley should have never have hit for power. You make it seem like he is choking up and chopping at the ball like Wee Willie Keeler. The fact that Brown was able to hit at AA and AAA with his old ridiculous stance (as well as my own eyes) tells me that he has lightning quick hands.
LikeLike
Anyone know when they will anounce the moves following Luna being picked up to Philly?? Ruf kicked up to LHV?
LikeLike
I would guess that Ruf goes up, but that might be wishful thinking, as it seems at this point they want Ruf in AA for whatever purpose – defensive work or team cohesion towards the playoffs, or whatever it might be. I won’t be surprised if they bring Jake Fox back up to AAA now and just roster move JRod back when it’s his turn in the AA rotation, then fill the AAA hole with a pitcher from wherever, (Friend again, perhaps).
LikeLike
What are some new names that you guys think could end up in our outfield? I’m not big on Bourn for the price he will most likely be asking. What about Melky?
LikeLike
Nick Swisher
LikeLike
Dayan Viciedo ewwww, You know RAJ loves the 290 OBP
LikeLike
Sounds like RAJ’s prototypical lead off hitter
LikeLike
I didn’t realize RAJ devised the lineup.
LikeLike
That would be only 20 points lower than Ruben’s major league percentage and look where he is now. Who needs to get on base?
LikeLike
any rumors on the player the phils will get from the dodgers in the blanton deal?
LikeLike
Someone had speculated that it could be a 2011 draft signee who has to be signed for 1 full calendar year before he can be dealt. There was a name attached to that notion, but I don’t recall off the top of my head. That anniversary could be coming up in a couple days, (8-15 was last year’s deadline day).
LikeLike
thanks brad, i remember raj saying it was a guy they liked a lot.
LikeLike
Ruf #26 wonder if he is called up to LHV tomorrow
LikeLike
He might just go to the majors in 2 weeks.
LikeLike
27… this is getting rediculous
LikeLike
Sick. Guy deserves a callup. Seriously.
LikeLike
Darin Ruf has hit 9 home runs in his last 11 games
LikeLike
The Good Phight @TheGoodPhight
Legends RT @RPhilsPR Ruf is now ninth all-time among single-season HR leaders. Tied with Mike Costanzo, Tagg Bozied, and Randy Ruiz at 27 HR.
LikeLike
There are 21 games left
LikeLike
So at his recent pace that’s what, 17 more?
LikeLike
Well he needs 10 more for Howard’s record, I almost believe they wouldn’t let him break it. There is no way he can keep current pace and hit 17. But 10 in 21 games is possible if he stays hot.
LikeLike
Pretty exclusive company…
LikeLike
The Marlins stadium is hideous. What is that stupid thing in the outfield that spits water. All that green. They haven’t done one thing right all year.
LikeLike
More people need to start using the “Green Screen” colored wall to Photoshop some wild pictures behind the outfielders
LikeLike
Have you been there in person?
LikeLike
Lost in Ruf hubbub, Asche 3 for 4 to stay hot also…
LikeLike
Franco continuing his hot second half as well.
LikeLike
Asche now up to .260 BA…he was at .220 only 2 wks ago. Hard-charging guy. Maybe up to .280 by season’s end. Then off to the AFL. Bust guy. After Wlmsprt in ’11 with very mediocre hitting, he has traveled up the ladder unexpectedly quickly one season later.. Even to the AFL which is often a last stop before MLB. This is a spectacular rise.
Save 3b for him…most probably at ’13s mid-season…or even before if he has a good spring training. IMO, RAJ has this possibility in mind, and may be why he’ll concentrate on righty outfielders post season and be ready to open with Galvis at 3rd…with Asche to come up later on.
What seemed impossible only 3 months ago now seems a possibility…enough so to stifle any 3rd baseman signing over the winter.
LikeLike
Asche’s minor league resume still compares unfavorably to just about every ML regular 3B. I don’t see how RAJ can count on him until at least 2014 and that’s optimistic.
LikeLike
+1 I’m not sure the magic number of AB’s in the Minors but Asche I would guess has 1 more full season at Reading and another full season at LHV before he gets a shot at being the everyday 3B.
Not saying that is right just how our org seems to operate. He is still just 22! I have to laugh when I say that anymore knowing Mike Trout and Harper are just 20 and 19 respectively.
LikeLike
Sadly, I saw the Astros AA Team play yesterday, yes, the one with Jonathan Singleton, Jonathan Villar, Josh Zeid, and Formerly Jarred Cosart plus soon to be Domingo Santana. Villar and Zeid are DL’d but I was cringing while watching Singleton play, he most certainly could be our solution in Right or Left Field. For any Sabermetric guys? Is there a stat that could show how many games we won because of Oswalt and Pence, because we could sure use those prospects now. Also, thoughts on September callups??? Ruf, Cloyd, DeFratus, Aumont, Diekman, Savery. Maybe Gillies, Valle, Hernandez, and Pettibone?
LikeLike
Singleton is barely playing LF, and his R/F is plain god awful there. I’d be very surprised if doesn’t end up at 1B.
My guess for Sept callups: Cloyd, JDF, Aumont, Diekman, Savery. Definitely not anyone that doesn’t need to go on the 40-man list (Ruf).
LikeLike
I was surprised, Singleton is much faster than he was with the Phillies, he has slimmed down a bit. He went first to third just as good as anybody in the Phils system granted Quinn, James, Gillies, and a couple more. He is a smart baserunner, not a fast baserunner, he makes up for average speed very well. But if he would have remained in the system he could have work more on the corner outfield spots opposed to now where he is exclusively working at first.
LikeLike
Laugh at the continued weeping over Singleton. He’s not going to play LF in the majors and at 1b, he is an average bat. He is a Sabermetric dream in that he hits for average and takes walks but he’s not going to be a traditional run-producing power hitter at the position.
Singleton has a good chance of becoming a productive ML player but he’s not a future star. He’s skill set reminds me a bit of Adam Laroche who has been a solid major leaguer but never an all-star.
LikeLike
Singleton will very likely produce more WAR at first over the course of Howard’s contract than Howard will, at a fraction of the cost. And yes, that’s giving Howard a head start (he’s not doing much with it so far).
LikeLike
If he produces more WAR than Howard then It won’t be at a fraction of the cost since Singleton will be making quite a bit of $$$ as well.
LikeLike
Huh? Word is Singleton will start next year in AAA and probably come up mid-season. Then he has 3 years of costing pennies and the first year of arbitration. That takes him through the end of Howard’s contract.
So yes, I expect he’ll cost a fraction of the $95 million Howard will be paid the next 4 years, and I would take even odds that he outproduces Howard in that span. In fact, I think the odds are a good bit better than even. If you throw in Singleton’s 2017 production, when Howard has a $23 million club option with a $10 million buyout, I’m even more confident.
LikeLike
Since I’m not a supporter of the Howard contract either at the time it was signed or not, I’m certainly not going to defend it. Point is that I don’t see Singleton becoming the future star that others do. Time will tell if that opinion is right or wrong.
LikeLike
Your post impelled me to give his numbers another look and do some comps. I cried a little.
He is currently hitting very well in AA in his age 20 season. I would certainly not place any kind of limits on what kind of player he might become. Just to do one comp, Joey Votto was in A and A+ in his age 20 season. He was in AA for his age 22 season, granted more impressive – but not much more impressive – than Singleton’s current season, but two years older. Considering age/level, Singleton this year is more impressive. More to the point in terms of your comment, Votto’s minor league HR totals are comperable to Singleton’s; hitting as many as HR as Singleton has at that age/level is indicative of more power than you give him credit for (though the Laroache comparison is a curious one, as most of his value is tied to the fact that he hits HRs).
Now, I’ll admit that the Votto comp is a little unfair in that Votto was something of a late bloomer, and i’m not saying he is going to turn into Joey Votto. But I’d bet that Votto ends up being a better comp than Laroche.
LikeLike
Guess we will have to wait and see..
LikeLike
Would also add that Singleton’s numbers are inflated a bit by playing in the Texas league.
LikeLike
Its was just a sad trip down memory lane and what could have been…
LikeLike
Why are we complaining and crying???? Ruben will reacquire him in 10 years for more than he is worth. Silly kids.
LikeLike
Look on the bright side…we eventually obtained Tom Joseph through the domino-effect.
LikeLike
I agree. Maybe through Valle on the list since he would be the 3rd catcher. I would also say Gillies to add depth in the OF but I don’t think they want to reward him.
LikeLike
I thought Phillies were supposed to have a good bench at start of the season: Thome, Wigginton, Mayberry/Nix, with crappy Schnieder and Galvis/Martinez/Orr. and Pierre in for Howard early.
LikeLike
The key word is “supeposed” put out by the Phils media. Galvis was the only respectable player . Pierre in a offensive way. Sorta
That list hardly inspires confidence. Schnieder was a particularly bad choice because he was visible and going downhill .
LikeLike
Nix has an OPS of almost .800. Pierre has been fantastic. Thome got traded for way better than expected specs. Galvis was pretty freaking solid. Mayberry has BEEN A STARTER ALL SEASON. Martinez broke a freaking bone. It’s a freaking bench. What do you guys think Major League benches look like in the Majors. This isn’t the NBA or NFL. You don’t have a 6th man or a 3rd down rushing end. If he’s good enough, he starts.
LikeLike
I miss Wilson, and his orange goat.
LikeLike
I think we made out pretty well in that trade considering the little boost Horst has been able to give the bullpen.
LikeLike
Wilson was one of the best bullpen pitchers in the majors…for one game.
LikeLike
PTBNL for Blanton and/or Victorino:
Some have speculated that team is waiting for the “one year to expire before trading” thing for draft choices in what would , in this case , be the 2011 draft. Maybe even somebody team connected implied as much.
I see 5 late signees from that draft for the Dodgers:
1st Round – 8/12/11- Chris Reed, LHP, born 5/20/90. 6’4 195, from Stanford, born London, England
4th Round- 8/16/11- Ryan O’Sullivan, RHP, born 8/15/90 , 6’2 190, from Oklahoma City
6th Round- 8/15/11- Scott Barlow, RHP, born 2/8/92, 6’3 170, USHS
9th Round- 8/15/11- Tyler Ogle, C, B-R T-R, born 8/9/90, 5’11 193, Oklahoma
36th Round- 8/20/11- Kevin Taylor, 2B, B-L T-R, born 7/13/91, 6′ 200, from JC
It may be they will not have given up too good of a prospect, and yet it will be one Philly would want and accept in the trade. I don’t see much for taking the last 2 position players, and maybe
they won’t give up the younger pitcher or their 1st round pick, so maybe they get O’Sullivan. That’s my guess.
LikeLike
They could also be taking time scouting players from a list provided by the Dodgers. Last year the Phils gave Houston their choice of anyone in Lakewood, and they took their time before selecting Domingo Santana.
LikeLike
Geez anyone in Lakewood and the passed on Jesse Biddle?
LikeLike
I think Biddle was off the table
LikeLike
He was 100% off the table for that list.
LikeLike
What about Alex Santana, he is young however?
LikeLike
Interesting article on Dom Brown on Sportsweek from philly.com. The link is:http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/166000956.html?page=2&c=y Three different scouts with varying opinions are quoted. Personally, I am impressed that Brown is one of only two Phillies (the other is Juan Pierre) who have more BBs than Ks. The Phillies really need some guys who put the ball in play and see some pitches. Hope he can keep it up and the power will come.
LikeLike
Yeah, power will be a just a bonus. He has the 2nd best approach after Utley.
LikeLike
You read this crap and you feel like you’re Billy Beane in the Moneyball movie meeting with the scouts where they’re talking a guy not having confidence because his girlfriend is ugly. If these guys can’t figure out that Brown is good right now, has shown clear improvement and has significant upside, what can you say? They really sound like ignorant dopes and they clearly have no clue about important things like plate discipline.
LikeLike
I really think they have somewhat of a ‘clue’. Maybe not dead-on 100% of the time, but they are employed by clubs for a reason.
LikeLike
They are paid to nitpick, people on this site are here to dream
LikeLike
Yes..Hagen’s article was discussed yesterday on the other thread..
LikeLike
Excerpt review of International Signing Rules: Ben Badler’s article, May 2012.
Every team has a $2.9 million signing bonus pool for the 2012-13 signing period. Any team that spends more than $2.9 million will be subject to a variety of penalties:
• Teams that go 0-5 percent over will pay a 75 percent tax on the overage.
• Teams that go 5-10 percent over will pay the 75 percent tax on the overage and won’t be able to sign more than one player for a bonus of more than $500,000 in the 2013-14 signing period.
• Teams that go 10-15 percent over will pay a 100 percent tax on the overage and won’t be able to sign any player for a bonus of more than $500,000 in the 2013-14 signing period.
• Teams that go 15 percent or more over will pay a 100 percent tax on the overage and won’t be able to sign any player for a bonus of more than $250,000 in the 2013-14 signing period.
The 2012-13 signing period begins July 2, 2012 and ends June 15, 2013. The dates from June 16, 2013 through July 1, 2013 will be considered a “closed period” when no one will be able to sign. MLB said it will need time to calculate each team’s total spending and potential penalties. Also, due to the new mandatory registration system, the commissioner’s office will need time to prepare and disseminate information about registered players to clubs.
The $2.9 million bonus pool does have a few exemptions that will allow a team to spend a little bit more. A team’s six highest signing bonuses of $50,000 or less will not count toward its total. For 2012-13, players signed for $7,500 or less also won’t count (in 2013-14 that number goes up to $10,000). So there’s enough wiggle room to spend up to $3.2 million without facing any penalties. All players must sign a standard minor league contract, so no major league deals are allowed.
The bonus pool limits probably won’t affect the majority of teams, because only a handful have gone well beyond $2.9 million-$3.2 million in 2011 or in 2010. Teams like the Rangers, Blue Jays, Royals, Pirates and Cubs may have to scale back, but even those teams will have to make small adjustments rather than drastic changes.
The international signing pool includes any player not subject to the draft, which includes anyone from outside the United States, Canada or Puerto Rico—with a couple of exemptions. One is that any player who had previously signed with a major league club will not be subject to the bonus pool. It’s a corollary to the draft rule, where if a player has already signed with a team out of the draft, he’s no longer draft eligible and any contract he signs thereafter will not count against an organization’s draft bonus pool. So a Dominican player released out of Triple-A who signs as a minor league free agent won’t have his contract count against his new team’s international pool.
The other exemption involves players coming to MLB from foreign professional leagues. Players who are at least at least 23 and have played five years in a recognized professional league, such as Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, will be exempt.
For the next two years, Cubans will be exempt as long as they are 23 and have played in a Cuban professional league for at least three seasons. Beginning in 2014-15 Cubans must have five years of pro experience to be exempt. So if Yoenis Cespedes had still been unsigned by July 2, he would have been exempt from the new rules anyway, where 20-year-old outfielder Jorge Soler will be subject to the new rules unless he can get all of his paperwork pushed through and sign before July 2.
LikeLike
Ruf and Asche again……….. this is just getting sick….. love it………
BTW check out the GCL box, NICE!!!!
LikeLike
FWIW, and with the ussual caveat about defensive metrics, especially in SSS, those metrics strongly support the subjective observations about Brown’s defensive improvement. He went from a projected 26 defensive runs below average over 150 games – as bad as his worst detractors claimed – to a projected 18 defensive runs above average over 150 games. A 44 defensive runs per 150 games turn around.
I’m inclined to think that the reality isn’t quite that positive – but certainly he has made a dramatic defensive turn around. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain that mow that he is back in right.
LikeLike
Why do you think that the turn around isn’t as grand? Before he was called up to the phillies, over his entire minor league career it was expected he would profile as above average defensively. For nearly 5 years he was called a 5 tool player… then suddenly, after being called up, he looked like a “less” toolsy player whose defensive tools were not just no longer plus, but actually significantly below average.
Not that I think he’s currently a plus defender, but if you told a scout “over his first 500 at-bats he would go from significantly below average to slightly above average defensively”, the scout would have said “that makes sense”, or even “I expect he’ll end up above average over the next 1000 AB’s.”
LikeLike
His current performance, projected over a season – looking just at the defensive metrics – is near gold glove caliber. 18 defensive runs above average is pretty darn good. I don’t think he is there yet. I also think the metrics probably exagerate (slightly) just how bad he was last year. A 44 defensive run turn around (on a 150 game basis) is just a little too much to accept as entirely “real.” But I do think that “significantly below average to slightly above average defensively” is accurate.
LikeLike
Ah nice, I didn’t fully appreciate that 18+ defensive runs. I am glad to hear he’s doing well in more then just the “eye test”. My biggest worry with him is the lack of power lately…
LikeLike
Yeah, even will the SSS, the lack of power is starting to be a concern. I’m actually starting to wonder if messing with his swing was really the right move. Sometimes messy looking swings are more effective. His hitting last year was not that bad, especially considering the injury. But patience, patience.
LikeLike
There was a comment a couple days ago about how Amaro needs to be better at “finding” good young players. That’s pretty silly unless that was an awkwardly phrased may of criticizing his skill in supervising the scouting and minor league development operations (and even that would IMO be unfair), because of course by far the biggest source of “good young players” consists of developing talent internally, and almost all of the exceptions to that are players traded by contenders to non-contenders for veteran players (and the Phillies have lately been successful enough that they have quite properly been on the other side of those transations).
But my purpose is not to mock a silly comment. Rather I want to talk a little bit about the other, very rare, ways to acquire good young talent. Which basically come down to rule 5 and non-tender candidates. And of course true successes in those areas are rare and to a large extent a matter of luck. Perhaps Phillies fans don’t realize this, since in the past 10 years they have probably had the most success with these types of players, acquiring 2 now departed all star outfielders through those means.
Of course expecting to get good young players that way is a fool’s strategy. But there is one non tender candidate that I kind of hope the Phillies take a flier on. His chance of turning it around is probably less than 30%, but he probably could be had cheaply, was once a very highly regarded prospect, is only 27, and could possibly fill the hole at third base in the short term, given the lack of other decent options (no, Asche is not the answer in 2013).
Laugh at me if you will, but with people seriously suggesting bringing back Polanco, I think this could be a low risk, potentially high reward signing, assuming he is non-tendered: Ian Stewart. If he isn’t good enough to be a regular, he has enough positional flexibility to be a bench guy.
LikeLike
Agree…..Stewart could be a valuable asset, if he straightens out whatever has been derailing him these last few years. In Colorado , at the start of his career there was so much promise for the man.
LikeLike
I’m sorry. I’ve heard all you guys all year long speak weakly about Ruf. Jake Fox gets moved to Lehigh and Ruf stays behind? You all can talk about Ashe all you want , and he might someday be the hitter that Ruf is. And the defensive slams against Ruf are bogus. He won TWO gold gloves in college as the best defensive first baseman in the country. What? Did he forget how to catch? Even his manager who has seen him play the last two years raves about his defense.
This is clearly a case of scouts protecting their jobs. They rated this kid low. And now that he is outperforming all the other higher rated “prospects”, they won’t admit that maybe they were wrong.
BS.
Like the scene from the movie “Moneyball”, when Beanne says to his top scout … “you think you know, but you don’t”.
Another 2-run HR tonight. Reward the kid already ! Jeeeez.
LikeLike
Thought I’d do a seasonal stock up/stock down for prospects in full season ball. Going to consider solid prospects, and marginal prospects separately. Will ignore non-prospects. This is off the top of my head, so comments/corrections welcomed.
Solid (essentially, started year in PP’s top 30)
Up
Biddle – was #1 for PP, but not on most lists. Will likely be #1 this year.
Glavis and graduated
Franco – second half so good that he went from maybe marginally down to up
Wright – way up
Hernandez – a little up
Schwimmer – and graduated
Morgan – way, way up
Same
Pettibone
Colvin
DeFratus
Aumont
Bonilla – generous
Gillies – further injuries & suspension countered by decent numbers after essentially a 2 year layoff
JRod – some would argue down; I say, I never was on the band wagon to begin with
Castro –
Altherr
Down
May
Valle – could be “same,” but the stagnant (and very poor) BB % and mediocre power make him look increasingly like a guy who will top out as a back up.
James –
Hyatt
Garner
Martinez
Giles
Manzanillo
Marginal
Up
Asche – marginal no longer
Ruf – still marginal
Cloyd – still marginal
Kratz
Hudson
Rupp
Same
Collier – was up, but falling back
Villalobos
Down
JC Ramirez
Mitchell
Eldemire
This surprised me. i would have thought the ratio of up to down would have been better.
LikeLike
Forgot Dugan.
Yup. Must have forgotten him.
LikeLike
Well I said it was off the top of my head. Not bad considering.
LikeLike
It was exhaustive enough that I thought you actually left him off purposely. But he should get a stock up.
I think I’d drop Bonilla. I assume you noted it was generous to leave him as the same because of his move to the bullpen, and I’d agree with that. I like him a lot but he just doesn’t have the same value as a reliever.
LikeLike
You seemed to have skipped the low minors, understandable since you can’t compare them to last year, with the exception of Tocci. who I would have included on this list. 🙂
LikeLike
I said “full season ball” – and I really didn’t put as much thought into it as I should have. Still, I think it holds up pretty well, aside from a couple obvious in retrospect errors and a couple of otherwise controversial choices.
If we included short season ball, the picture gets rosier.
LikeLike
I disagree on Pettibone staying the same. He made the jump to AA which is the hardest promotion in the minors and did so well he was promoted again to AAA. That’s huge.
LikeLike
I just read that the PTBNL in the Blanton deal will be named today. Expected to be a pitching prospect.
LikeLike
hope its Reed the Stanford LH, but it could be O’Sullivan (?) don’t know if I have that right
LikeLike
It’s O’Sullivan.
LikeLike
Can’t resist two comments related to yesterday’s Phillies game.
1. The first Marlins run (in several games) was scored on a fly ball that fell in front of Brown in right field. It looked very catchable, but Brown took a route that left him behind the ball instead of under it. He played it safe, but it was a bad play and got the Marlins started. Halladay didn’t look too happy.
2. This year the Phillies bullpen has shown that velocity is overrated. Qualls had good velocity, but couldn’t get anybody out. Rosenberg can hit 97 mph, but his ERA is now over 12. Schwimer can throw hard, and has had his moments, but appears to have trouble pitching late in games. Meanwhile, Valdes and Horst do not throw very hard, but have been much more effective (I am aware that they are lefties so a somewhat lower velocity is acceptable) because they have better command.
LikeLike
SIFPA, agree with you 100% on your second point but you will have to accept that Brown will make mistakes(if he did on that hit) occasionally in the field and ask if Pence would have gotten it. Maybe Roy was mad at himself for getting the ball up enough for the batter to lift it.
LikeLike
Schwim and Rosenberg are still young guys though. I don’t have any real problem with them struggling right now. Schwimer had actually been doing a lot better the last month or so, and the ball that dropped in front of Mayberry yesterday probably should have been caught and ended the inning right there.
LikeLike
Bob Nightengale, USA Today on PED Usage in Baseball:
‘….the new drug du jour is synthetic testosterone, not steroids, and it might be rampant throughout Major League Baseball. Victor Conte, founder of the infamous Bay Area Laboratory Co-operative (BALCO) that brought down some of sports’ biggest names, says as many as 50% of major league players are using illegal performance-enhancing drugs. He has no proof, of course, but says he talks with players and that they have no reason to lie to him. “I’m not going to name names, but I’ve talked to a lot of top players in Major League Baseball, and they tell me this is what they’re doing,” Conte said. “There is rampant use of synthetic testosterone in Major League Baseball.”
It’s easy, Conte said, to use testosterone without being caught. Take it before you go to sleep, and by the time you get to the ballpark the next day, your testosterone level is too low to register a blip on the drug screen.
“We’ve known for a period of time that fast-acting testosterone is a logical choice for athletes who are willing to break the rules in order to win,” says Travis Tygart, CEO of the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency. “To some extent it’s a performance-enhancing drug of choice because it significantly reduces the risk of being caught.”
Said Conte: “It’s so easy to circumvent (a drug test). I call it the ‘duck-and-dodge’ system. The only people that get caught are the dumb and the dumber.”
No one is giving Cabrera an IQ test these days, but he flunked the drug test he took last month.
Cabrera not only admitted he took testosterone, he also didn’t bother going through the appeal process.
He becomes the fourth major league player suspended for drug use this season. And if you dare believe Conte, there are hundreds out there who are beating the system every day.
“There’s such a loophole, you really wonder if Major League Baseball has a genuine interest in stopping these guys,” Conte says.
MLB officials, incensed by that statement, will go to their graves insisting they want a clean sport and have the most stringent testing of any U.S. sport. If they didn’t care, they wouldn’t have caught Cabrera, come up with a positive test on National League MVP Ryan Braun last winter or ruined Rafael Palmeiro’s legacy in 2005 after he got his 3,000th hit.
“Does that mean there is nobody out there trying to beat the system?” MLB executive vice president Ron Manfred asks. “No, it doesn’t mean that. It means that we’re doing everything humanly possible to catch people. We use the very best, most sophisticated methodologies that are available
LikeLike
I hope Ethan Martin turns out because it certainly seems like Lindblom isn’t working out here.
LikeLike
sss
LikeLike
Random note: Has anyone seen the ESPN films documentary called “The Dotted Line”, about the role of agents in sports? In a part of the film, they’re interviewing an agent prominent in Venezuela and at one point he goes to see one of the Phillies 2011 spring training games to check out Freddy Galvis. It’s pretty cool, they go to a restaurant with Freddy, as well as Cesar Hernandez, JC Ramirez, and I believe Harold Garcia. At one point I saw Domonic Brown and could’ve sworn I saw Carlos Tocci (in Venezuela, not at Spring Training of course, this was well before he signed.)
LikeLike
Will check it out. And its on netflix!
LikeLike
Too soon to talk about next year’s bench?
I think Kratz has won the back up catcher’s job. Nix is signed. it’s hard to imagine them non-tendering Schierholtz. So that’s 2 or 3 of 5 right there, depending upon whether Schierholtz is a platton regular. An infielder – as much as some people have exagerated expectations of a reserve infielder, I certainly hope it won’t be Martinez. Of course it will be Galvis, assuming he is healthy, unless he is the regular at third (I hope not).
That leaves one or two spots. Mayberry has probably earned a spot, maybe as a Schierholtz platoon partner. Yeah, I know that sounds uninspiring. I think most of the available payroll goes to securing a center fielder; the remaining amount would not be enough to secure a left fielder who would be any better than the decent and cheap Schierholtz/Mayberry platoon.
That leaves one spot. Manuel has been making noices about resigning Pierre, which I am sure won’t make many people here happy. My guess is that the popular chocie for that last spot will be Ruf. Maybe it will even happen. Perhaps more likely is a cheap FA sign. There is always chance that they exercise the Wiggington option; let’s hope not.
That strikes me as pretty solid. Of course, next year’s team success will depend more upon filling in the CF and 3B holes, finding a better 5th starter than Kendrick, the health of the older veterans, and, to a much lesser extent, sorting out the bullpen (with better health and perhaps Aumont and DeFratus, I don’t see that being a problem next year).
LikeLike
All this, of course, assumes no big off season trades, which could effect the bench as well. I’m inclined to think that they will and should pretty much stand pat. heresy perhaps on a team that is old and falling out of contention, but both types of trades they could reasonably make – tear it down trades, and win now trades – strike me as unwise for very different reasons. There won’t get good value for the aging veterans, and they shouldn’t further mortgage the future by trading prospects to try to eek out one more WS run (which could happen anyway, with health and luck and one good FA sign). The one possible exception is trading for a thrid baseman.
LikeLike
I would start with Kratz, course said the same last offseason, only for the re-signing of Schneider.
Then I go Frandsen, bats R, can fill at 1B,2B, 3B and some SS.
Then I go Galvis, main at SS and go work in with Frandsen at 3B.
Then all they need at 3B is a starter, and with what they can pay there, they can go with a 3 headed monster, until they can develop one.
OF- hard to know who starts, I see they might want Pierre. A variation on the pinch hitter only theme. Except for the hit and hit for power thing , you get hit singles and run thing.
Until further notice Laynce Nix is in.
Don’t like the OF reserves, the OF , that’s a quandry.
LikeLike
You are concerned about ‘finding a better 5th starter than Kendrick’…my main pitching concern is the higher rotation guy like Cliff Lee, if in fact he is back and not traded. Being 34 and seemingly hot and cold this year, not sure what to make about 2013 with him as the 2 or 3. Hoping the Rangers falter in the playoffs and a frustrated Nolan Ryan decides to go for him this off season, and anties up to get him.
LikeLike
Lee traded means that Kendrick is the 4th starter. Not liking that at all. I also like Lee going forward a lot more than you do, so that’s part of it. Also, this year at least, it’s not like there is ton of attractive free agents to spend the money on. Finally, I don’t think you get all that much for him, despite the above, because of his salary.
The only way it makes sense to trade Lee is if the team goes into 100% rebuilding mode, which won’t and shouldn’t happen.
LikeLike
Good news for those who think they make a major free agent signing. With the PHILA loss last night they moved below Seattle for the 10th worst record. Seattle has one more win. With that, they would not lose a first round choice with a Major Signing. They would with the 11th worst record , so Good news for you.
However, perusing the Free Agent list,of those currently on, I would say Most would cost too much, or are not worthy of tendering and would not provide enough to justify their signing over a minimum salary player, given considerations going forward.
LikeLike
Marfis, I am somewhat sympathetic to the argument that the big name FAs are not worth going after this season. The problem is that your strategy would guarantee that there would no chance at the post season next year. Of course, even with a big FA signing, the team will need health and luck to contend. But I don’t think the team will throw in the towel next year before the season even starts by using ultra low cost options in LF, CF and 3B. Nor probably should they, unless the bidding gets too crazy for the top names. The have enough payroll flexibility to over pay a little.
One thing which I find amusing is that, once you get past Bourn and Hamilton, the one guy that maybe makes the most sense as a relatively low cost option that could give you better than average production in center is our old friend Victorino. I will say this – if indeed they are going to sit the FA market out this year, then they should have held onto Vic and offered him the 12 million one year contract.
LikeLike
If Victorino can’t get a long-term deal in the offseason, I don’t think it would be a bad idea to bring him back in a 2 or 3 year deal.
LikeLike
Perhaps I exaggerated a bit, in the “no options beyond the top guys” thing. There’s a couple of good platoon type OF’s I like and might fill a role. But , then since you need likely frequent fill-ins at all 4 INF positions, that seems to indicate they have at least 2 INF reserves plus a Catcher on the bench, so it may be interesting to see the solution in the OF.
I believe the last thing I saw on MLBTR said that tenders would be likely to be in the $13.5 million a year slot to garner a draft pick. I guess they could bring Victorino back for less than that. That doesn’t do much for the aging roster issue, however.
LikeLike
another poor play by dom brown tonight. sigh …
LikeLike
terrible play
LikeLike
It seems to be pretty evident that the Phillies core of players from the 2006/2007 era-present is on the decline for the most part. I expect that Rollins, Utley, Howard, Ruiz, Lee and Halladay only have 2-3 years left in the tank if even that with some of these guys.
That being said, I don’t think the Phillies should completely start rebuilding by starting guys like Ruf, Hernandez, etc., next year. I think in order for the Phillies to be a contender next year, they should gradually begin to incorporate their young talent into the team. I think every team needs young players who are not only getting experience for the future, but are hungry to win, i.e. the Nationals.
I think that the Phillies should seriously consider moving Chase Utley to left field. Utley would only need to be an average defensive outfielder and I think it would tremendously preserve his knees by playing out there. Then, they can move Galvis to second base and maybe try to trade for Adrian Beltre to play third. The Rangers now have Olt up in the big leagues and I could definitely see them putting Beltre on the trade block. Beltre could be an excellent stop gap at third base for a couple of years while guys like Asche and Franco are developing. Then, I would try to go after Bourn, but if the price tag is too high for him, go after a guy like B.J. Upton or Shane Victorino for a 2-3 year deal if they can’t find long term deals.
Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Worley have pretty much locked up the 1-2-3-4 in the rotation, barring any trades, but I think the Phillies have a lot of interesting options for the 5 spot in their rotation. Kendrick obviously seems to be the favorite due to the 2 year deal he signed in the past off-season, but I think he’s better suited as a long reliever. I would be much more interested to see guys like Pettibone or Cloyd duke it out for the 5 spot in spring training and I think that would be much better considering the future.
The bullpen has possibly been the biggest problem for the Phillies this season. Lindblom hasn’t really impressed me that much, but I can still see him being in the mix. A lot of these younger power arms that have come up have been really unimpressive, but I suppose the potential is still there. I’d love to see the Phillies bring back Madson for a 1 year deal to be the set up man. He was fantastic in that role last year and hopefully Stutes will be ok when he comes back.
LikeLike
Seems like the guys you mentioned might be considered a long term issue, maybe not. After next season, Utley and Halladay can become Free Agents, Lee- they could have unloaded the entire contract for nothing to Dodgers if they wanted, theoretically they could not pick up Ruiz’s option if they wanted this offseason- and after next season the contract expires. Then after next season, I believe Rollins could go. And then there’s Howard, who over the 3 some years after this one, despite some beliefs contrary, I believe can still hit for power, so they can think up a “no Howard in line-up” strategy for when he is unavailable, and look for a complementary line-up when he is . So, I believe they kept those guys they have now, because they want to, and they can keep them going forward, solely because they want to ,, also.
Beltre- I don’t believe they will trade him, partly because they have places to move people to like DH, 1B, and some OF spots. Even if they did, a 3B is very valuable due to the shortage, and it would cost an arm and a leg prospect-wise.
LikeLike
Halladay, Lee, Ruiz, Howard and Utley have the potential of lasting at least another 2-3 years, depending on their performances next year. Like I said, gradually incorporate the minor league prospects into the team and take it year-by-year.
The Rangers have Mitch Moreland, Michael Young, Mike Olt and Adrian Beltre to fill in at DH, 1B, and 3B. They might need to free up some salary as well if they want to extend Hamilton this offseason and stay under the luxury tax. Maybe Michael Young is a better idea? I have no idea what his contract situation is, but that seems like a possibility. I doubt the Phillies would have to give up as much as they would for Beltre considering Young’s older and is having an off year.
LikeLike
I don’t want Young anywhere near this team. He is overpaid, can only defensively play DH, and he is really on a down slope of his career.
LikeLike
I just looked at it and saw that he’s got a year left on his contract and if the Rangers ate some of his contract, I can’t see how he’d be that terrible of a stopgap third baseman for a year.
LikeLike
If he is as bad as he has been this year, I wouldn’t take him if the Rangers paid his whole salary and we got him in a cash only transaction, with no players or prospects changing hands. Galvis would be a much better option, and I don’t think he is much of an option.
If he played like he did prior to this season, he could be a decent stop gap – but, aside from the fact that counting on a return to form from a player in this 30s, the Rangers are not likely to just give him away. On the very unlikely chance that the Rangers pay 2/3 of his salary and take only a third tier prospect in exchange, I would take a chance on him as a possible rebound candidate. But that isn’t going to happen.
LikeLike
I think that the Rangers might be interested in a deal where as you said, they would pay a large portion of his contract and only take a third tier prospect. He’s an older player who would just be a one year rental and the Rangers will probably need to get rid of one of those guys mentioned earlier.
LikeLike