I agree that Colvin had an absolute meltdown. Whatcott didn’t help him at all.. allowing 3 inherited runners… but it’s all on Colvin. Perkins with a 4 for 4 night. He’s hit in 9 of his last 10 with 5 multi-hit games. He’s .381 and 3 Ks and 3 BBs over that stretch. Nice job.
And dare I say, because he’s such a lightning rod on this board, Hewitt is having his best month… ever. He’s hitting .355 and has hit in 9 of his last 10 games with 4 multi-hot games. He’s earned a look-see in Reading next year. If he can continue his mediocre but improving contact rate, he could hit 25 HRs next year. He also needs to spend a little more time on fielding. Is it possible that he can only concentrate on one thing at a time.. fielding, no… contact, no… power, no…speed…no… fielding. He’s not in my top 30 but he could be learning.
The best thing about Hewitt’s defense is it will assuredly keep any team from claiming him in the rule 5, and therefore Phillies won’t waist a 40 man spot this year.
Hewitt, Collier, May, Pettibone, Rodriguez, Cloyd, Castro, JJames, and Ruf are all eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year. The roster spots spent on position players will be scarce.
Bell – he’s only a lightning rod because it is common for someone on this board to point to a breakout of sorts. In reality, his BB and K rates have remained remarkably consistent throughout his minor league career and including 2012. And remarkably bad at that. If it was fair to say that I was disappointed in anything about Hewitt’s season, it would be the 11 steals tallied to date after stealing 35 last season.
I agree he moves to Reading next year but I wouldn’t be surprised if he started losing at bats at this level.
Well we will lose Ruf, and possibly Castro, since they may not be protected. I assume May, Pettibone and JRod will be protected. And could JJames go through another draft without being selected! Collier is interesting, being at High-A may be an advantage wree other clubs may feel he is too still too inexperienced to take the risk of drafting him. And what happens with Cloyd may come down to September starts with the big club.
What I don’t want to see is for us to lose a player like we did with Lendy Castillo and let the other team hide them on the DL all year. I mean seriously, Castillo has thrown just 7 innings in the Majors with a 7 ERA. Does anyone think he’s actually hurt? Ridiculous.
They protected Rizzotti the 1st time he was eligible. There is a good chance they protect Ruf. I think they protect Castro, because he is good enough at so many things, he could be a 5th OF for a team without hurting them. I think Collier gets protected because he is a CF and has shown enough hit tool, in limited experience, to believe he could be a regular someday. Hewitt won’t be protected. Unsure about JJames. All of the pitchers (Martin, May, Pettibone, Cloyd and Rodriguez ) will be protected, but I believe 1 or 2 may be traded because they won’t have enough spots.
Yes. Do the Phils still have 2 open spots on 40 man roster? One might get taken if they decide to give Cloyd a shot in September. If that happens and he is not bad, they could just leave him on 40-man to be protected too. How many more openings will they have when contracts expire? And some out now (Galvis, and maybe Herndon) will end up back on. As has been said above, Pettibone and May being protected are certainties, with others TBD.
We’ve had this debate quite a few times over the years, and I think people keep forgetting how rare it is for a position player to be taken and to stick all season with a major league team. I’m not a GM, but I feel like if I’m going to use my Rule 5 picks someplace, it won’t be on taking a marginal talent like Castro. People forget, even Victorino–probably the biggest Rule 5 success among position players in recent years that I can think of–was offered back to the Dodgers. And they declined to take him. It’s really, really hard to keep a minor league on the roster all year.
I agree. I would always protect Pitchers with good arms, before position players. That’s why I believe they will protect all of the pitchers. The only position player I would care about losing would be Collier, but I do believe Castro could be selected.
I don’t believe Rodriguez is anything special, but anybody that believes Julio Rodriguez wouldn’t be selected isn’t paying attention to how teams use that draft. Rodriguez is probably as talented as at least one pitcher in almost every ML bullpen. He would be easy to protect.
I think your Victorino example is a good one. I’m not sure Castro would stick with a team, or that the Phillies should protect him if it means exposing a higher ceiling player. I just think he’s close enough to ML ready that a team might draft him just to have a risk free look at him.
I’m not sure a cellar dwelling big league team with a middle of the pack minor league system is where other teams will look to do their Rule 5 shopping.
Yeah, because when teams are evaluating the abilities of players left unprotected, the first thing they do is consult the big league club’s record. OK.
Quinn’s .333 OBP against RHP is one of the more impressive numbers anyone has put up this season, when taken in context. A HS player, hitting LH for the 1st time, against successful college pitchers. He has some serious talent.
It would be a real plus for Roman Quinn if he can learn to bunt from the left side like Juan Pierre. Even Freddie Galvis had half-dozen or so bunt hits in 2011.
I listen to a lot of the games via their internet radio feed — he tries to bunt from the left side at least once a game. Seems to have been more successful earlier in the year, has been fouling them off lately. Obviously new to him and a work in progress.
Bad day for starters (and relievers — Looking at you, JDF). Watson with a nice inning out of the pen.
Asche has four doubles in his last three games. He’s got nearly as many XBH in Reading (16 in 172 AB) than he did in CLW (18 in 255). Considering how he struggled initially after the promotion, that’s pretty impressive.
Looking at the 40 man, the team functionally has 39 players on it (Herndon and Galvis), just to get the conversation about which players are worth protecting it is important to know how many spots there are.
Locks (28): Aumont, Bastardo, DeFratus, Halladay, Diekman, Hamels, Horst, Kendrick, Lee, Lindblom, Papelbon, Rosenberg, Schwimmer, Stutes, Worley, Kratz, Ruiz, Valle, Galvis, Hernandez, Howard, Rollins, Utley, Brown, Gillies, Mayberry, Nix, Schierholtz
Maybe(3): Herndon, Ramirez, Savery
Cuts (8): Valdes, Schneider, Frandsen, Luna, Martinez, Polanco, Wigginton, Pierre
Looking at that you have roughly 9 (up to 12) spots available realizing that they need to use one on a 3B, OF, a bench player. That is about 6 spots for minor leaguers without any trades.
I would guess:
May
Cloyd
Pettibone
Ruf
James
Castro
Collier
I just think that with the “rebuild” of sorts going on they will expose less players than usual, J Rod seems unlikely to be protected
Good job Matt. And some of the ‘cuts’ will be replaced with external options so I suspect you’ll see closer to 4 or 5 players protected. May and Pettibone are absolute locks. The rest are debatable though I’d say that neither James nor Collier need to be protected. Also agree on JRod as posted earlier. I don’t see him being protected after somewhat of a step back this season
Yeah James hasn’t taken a big step forward, so I don’t think anyone is going to carry him. Collier is a more interesting case, although the chances are very slim someone would take him.
Looking at Matt’s list, I don’t see how Rodriguez doesn’t get protected. He still averaged a strikeout an inning as a 21 YO in AA. I’d protect (in order) May, Martin, Pettibone, JRod, and Collier.
May, Pettibone, and Cloyd should be locks, though if Cloyd is horrible in Sept, maybe not.
I would protect Castro since I think he could be first callup for Phillies next year but he is likely a career backup. He might get drafted by team looking for cheap 5th OF type if somehow they do not have one in their system already.
I could definitely see a team taking James as this point. He still has a high ceiling and does give major league value as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. Could definitely hide on an AL team.
For a team to take Rodriquez they would have to think they can tweak something in his arsenal, since he is not good enough to help a major league club as is.
Be suprised if any team took Collier. Not enough demonstrated major league ability at this point.
Nobody will take Ruf. Not a great hitter and very limited defensively.
I think most likely guys to get drafted in Rule5 already have (or are believed to have) one major league skill.
So the Cubs took Lendy Castillo from us this year and he has spent most of the season on the DL. Doesn’t that mean they have to carry him again next season for all the time he missed this season? If they don’t want to do that, we may be able to get him back, right?
Never mind, he just has to be active for 90 days, so they would only need to carry him for a little while if he falls short of that this season. At this point they’ve already paid him so much money, no way they would return him now.
Yeah they did send him back out there. Not really sure why should have taken the 6 innings of shutout ball and been happy, he was over 90 pitches already. And yes I could have done with 1 less walk.
Probably because they’re less concerned with stats than we are.
And if he ends up being a big league pitcher, he’s going to be asked to pitch into the seventh. The organization needs to know how well he pitches when he begins to tire.
He’ll probably always “walk too many.” The question is whether he can be effective while doing so. Today was certainly an encouraging start in that regard.
There is merit to this but to me inning count doesn’t mean as much as pitch count to me at this point. It is true that you want your pitchers to go as many innings as possible but you want them to do it in the most economical way possible as well. When May has over 90 pitches through 6 and he was struggling the inning before, I don’t think you would want to throw him back out there. Still there was a lot to like about this start.
Eh, May is going to have bad innings. Justin Verlander has bad innings. A pitcher needs to fail sometimes in the minors to learn how to handle it, and at the tail end of 6 excellent innings is a great time for him to fail. Compare, for example, to Hamels, who early in his major league career had a habit of letting the wheels come off after a bad inning, largely (IMO) because he was too successful (too coddled?) in the minors. Of course, Hamels got past that eventually, but it took his 2009 season to teach him the lesson.
Gets May more experience dealing with a bad inning, but has the first six innings to keep the bad one from getting in his head. I like it.
Hard to believe…after all the debate ad nauseum on comparing Cloyd to Maddux, look who brings it up again, the manager of all people. C’mon Ryne!… “I played behind a pitcher like that,” Sandberg said. “Greg Maddux was the master of command. That’s what Tyler has going for him. He has the ability to throw strikes, but also the ability to hit the mitt with a particular pitch. The result is often times the hitters miss the sweet spot in the bat. It results in weak balls hit and ground balls when he needs them.”
Phuture Phillies 
I agree that Colvin had an absolute meltdown. Whatcott didn’t help him at all.. allowing 3 inherited runners… but it’s all on Colvin. Perkins with a 4 for 4 night. He’s hit in 9 of his last 10 with 5 multi-hit games. He’s .381 and 3 Ks and 3 BBs over that stretch. Nice job.
And dare I say, because he’s such a lightning rod on this board, Hewitt is having his best month… ever. He’s hitting .355 and has hit in 9 of his last 10 games with 4 multi-hot games. He’s earned a look-see in Reading next year. If he can continue his mediocre but improving contact rate, he could hit 25 HRs next year. He also needs to spend a little more time on fielding. Is it possible that he can only concentrate on one thing at a time.. fielding, no… contact, no… power, no…speed…no… fielding. He’s not in my top 30 but he could be learning.
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The best thing about Hewitt’s defense is it will assuredly keep any team from claiming him in the rule 5, and therefore Phillies won’t waist a 40 man spot this year.
Hewitt, Collier, May, Pettibone, Rodriguez, Cloyd, Castro, JJames, and Ruf are all eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year. The roster spots spent on position players will be scarce.
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Bell – he’s only a lightning rod because it is common for someone on this board to point to a breakout of sorts. In reality, his BB and K rates have remained remarkably consistent throughout his minor league career and including 2012. And remarkably bad at that. If it was fair to say that I was disappointed in anything about Hewitt’s season, it would be the 11 steals tallied to date after stealing 35 last season.
I agree he moves to Reading next year but I wouldn’t be surprised if he started losing at bats at this level.
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I remember when they drafted Hewitt the phillies said he would need 2000 at bats in the minors. That will happen next season. I am not to optimistic.
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Revisionist history…..maybe they should have tried him as a switch-hitter right from the start in the 2008 FIL.
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Well we will lose Ruf, and possibly Castro, since they may not be protected. I assume May, Pettibone and JRod will be protected. And could JJames go through another draft without being selected! Collier is interesting, being at High-A may be an advantage wree other clubs may feel he is too still too inexperienced to take the risk of drafting him. And what happens with Cloyd may come down to September starts with the big club.
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Wrong, wrong, wrong.
May and Pettibone are the only 2 of those guys that would definitely be selected in the Rule 5 next year.
Ruf probably has the next best chance, but I doubt someone keeps him on their ML roster.
Rodriguez has the next best shot, but I doubt it.
James, Castro, and Collier have no shot of being drafted and kept on a roster all year
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I could see a team like the Padres or Astros taking a chance on Castro in the rule 5, their outfield depth is pretty atrocious.
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Agree, what is there to lose for the teams in that category.
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What I don’t want to see is for us to lose a player like we did with Lendy Castillo and let the other team hide them on the DL all year. I mean seriously, Castillo has thrown just 7 innings in the Majors with a 7 ERA. Does anyone think he’s actually hurt? Ridiculous.
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Or another team with limited talent in the OF, you know, like the Phils.
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lol if michael martinez can get drafted, who knows.
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The Cubs took Lendy Castillo…
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They protected Rizzotti the 1st time he was eligible. There is a good chance they protect Ruf. I think they protect Castro, because he is good enough at so many things, he could be a 5th OF for a team without hurting them. I think Collier gets protected because he is a CF and has shown enough hit tool, in limited experience, to believe he could be a regular someday. Hewitt won’t be protected. Unsure about JJames. All of the pitchers (Martin, May, Pettibone, Cloyd and Rodriguez ) will be protected, but I believe 1 or 2 may be traded because they won’t have enough spots.
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I doubt JRod gets protected and Collier shouldn’t need to be. Still some difficult decisions to be made though
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Yes. Do the Phils still have 2 open spots on 40 man roster? One might get taken if they decide to give Cloyd a shot in September. If that happens and he is not bad, they could just leave him on 40-man to be protected too. How many more openings will they have when contracts expire? And some out now (Galvis, and maybe Herndon) will end up back on. As has been said above, Pettibone and May being protected are certainties, with others TBD.
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We’ve had this debate quite a few times over the years, and I think people keep forgetting how rare it is for a position player to be taken and to stick all season with a major league team. I’m not a GM, but I feel like if I’m going to use my Rule 5 picks someplace, it won’t be on taking a marginal talent like Castro. People forget, even Victorino–probably the biggest Rule 5 success among position players in recent years that I can think of–was offered back to the Dodgers. And they declined to take him. It’s really, really hard to keep a minor league on the roster all year.
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Josh Hamilton was a rule 5 too, but obviously the circumstances were unique and he was actually a useful player the year he was drafted.
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I agree. I would always protect Pitchers with good arms, before position players. That’s why I believe they will protect all of the pitchers. The only position player I would care about losing would be Collier, but I do believe Castro could be selected.
I don’t believe Rodriguez is anything special, but anybody that believes Julio Rodriguez wouldn’t be selected isn’t paying attention to how teams use that draft. Rodriguez is probably as talented as at least one pitcher in almost every ML bullpen. He would be easy to protect.
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I wouldn’t take a marginal talent like Castro either. Rule 5 picks should be reserved for guys with real talent, like Michael Martinez …
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I think your Victorino example is a good one. I’m not sure Castro would stick with a team, or that the Phillies should protect him if it means exposing a higher ceiling player. I just think he’s close enough to ML ready that a team might draft him just to have a risk free look at him.
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I’m not sure a cellar dwelling big league team with a middle of the pack minor league system is where other teams will look to do their Rule 5 shopping.
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Yeah, because when teams are evaluating the abilities of players left unprotected, the first thing they do is consult the big league club’s record. OK.
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Marc Narducci, Philly.com, on Roman Quinn:
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20120812_Phillies_prospect_Quinn_learning_to_play_shortstop__and_to_switch-hit.html
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Informative article. I admittedly was unaware that this season was Quinn’s first experience betting from the left side. Ever.
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A lot of the pre-draft sites had Quinn listed as a SS, so I guess a lot of people (myself included) just assumed he played there in HS.
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Quinn’s .333 OBP against RHP is one of the more impressive numbers anyone has put up this season, when taken in context. A HS player, hitting LH for the 1st time, against successful college pitchers. He has some serious talent.
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It would be a real plus for Roman Quinn if he can learn to bunt from the left side like Juan Pierre. Even Freddie Galvis had half-dozen or so bunt hits in 2011.
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I listen to a lot of the games via their internet radio feed — he tries to bunt from the left side at least once a game. Seems to have been more successful earlier in the year, has been fouling them off lately. Obviously new to him and a work in progress.
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Well that is encouraging that he is trying. Working hard and he should get it.
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Great article about Roman Quinn. I would love to see him in Lakewood next year.
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I’m really hoping we see an Anthony Gose like break out for Quinn next year. Could easily see him leading the SAL in steals.
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Bad day for starters (and relievers — Looking at you, JDF). Watson with a nice inning out of the pen.
Asche has four doubles in his last three games. He’s got nearly as many XBH in Reading (16 in 172 AB) than he did in CLW (18 in 255). Considering how he struggled initially after the promotion, that’s pretty impressive.
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Cozens with a nice game , HR, dbl and an assist…. some clean innings by zach cooper, broussard and shane watson…
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Looking at the 40 man, the team functionally has 39 players on it (Herndon and Galvis), just to get the conversation about which players are worth protecting it is important to know how many spots there are.
Locks (28): Aumont, Bastardo, DeFratus, Halladay, Diekman, Hamels, Horst, Kendrick, Lee, Lindblom, Papelbon, Rosenberg, Schwimmer, Stutes, Worley, Kratz, Ruiz, Valle, Galvis, Hernandez, Howard, Rollins, Utley, Brown, Gillies, Mayberry, Nix, Schierholtz
Maybe(3): Herndon, Ramirez, Savery
Cuts (8): Valdes, Schneider, Frandsen, Luna, Martinez, Polanco, Wigginton, Pierre
Looking at that you have roughly 9 (up to 12) spots available realizing that they need to use one on a 3B, OF, a bench player. That is about 6 spots for minor leaguers without any trades.
I would guess:
May
Cloyd
Pettibone
Ruf
James
Castro
Collier
I just think that with the “rebuild” of sorts going on they will expose less players than usual, J Rod seems unlikely to be protected
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They also need a spot for Martin.
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Good job Matt. And some of the ‘cuts’ will be replaced with external options so I suspect you’ll see closer to 4 or 5 players protected. May and Pettibone are absolute locks. The rest are debatable though I’d say that neither James nor Collier need to be protected. Also agree on JRod as posted earlier. I don’t see him being protected after somewhat of a step back this season
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Yeah James hasn’t taken a big step forward, so I don’t think anyone is going to carry him. Collier is a more interesting case, although the chances are very slim someone would take him.
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Looking at Matt’s list, I don’t see how Rodriguez doesn’t get protected. He still averaged a strikeout an inning as a 21 YO in AA. I’d protect (in order) May, Martin, Pettibone, JRod, and Collier.
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You are right. Each of those guys will be protected. Everyone else is a “maybe” or a “no”.
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Why does Martin need to be protected? If high school guys get five years, wouldn’t he be starting his fifth as a professional in 2013?
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Martin was drafted out of HS the same year as May and Pettibone.
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I would be shocked to see Rodriguez protected.
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What are the criteria for being selected in the minor league portion of the Rule 5?
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4 years for College guys, 5 years for High School guys. After that they have to protected on the 40 man.
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The chance of Julio Rodriguez surviving a Rule 5 Draft are absolute…ZERO.
Who are you Ed Wade?
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So what? His value is negligible. They can have him.
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May, Pettibone, and Cloyd should be locks, though if Cloyd is horrible in Sept, maybe not.
I would protect Castro since I think he could be first callup for Phillies next year but he is likely a career backup. He might get drafted by team looking for cheap 5th OF type if somehow they do not have one in their system already.
I could definitely see a team taking James as this point. He still has a high ceiling and does give major league value as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. Could definitely hide on an AL team.
For a team to take Rodriquez they would have to think they can tweak something in his arsenal, since he is not good enough to help a major league club as is.
Be suprised if any team took Collier. Not enough demonstrated major league ability at this point.
Nobody will take Ruf. Not a great hitter and very limited defensively.
I think most likely guys to get drafted in Rule5 already have (or are believed to have) one major league skill.
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Would the phillies get any compensation for pierre, wigginton or polanco if they let them go in the offseason?
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The way I understand the new CBA, the Phillies will only receive compensation if they give qualifying offers of 12million to the players.
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absolutely none. Wigginton and Polanco have team options though
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So the Cubs took Lendy Castillo from us this year and he has spent most of the season on the DL. Doesn’t that mean they have to carry him again next season for all the time he missed this season? If they don’t want to do that, we may be able to get him back, right?
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Never mind, he just has to be active for 90 days, so they would only need to carry him for a little while if he falls short of that this season. At this point they’ve already paid him so much money, no way they would return him now.
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Don’t want to jinx it but May has got it going on today
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Looks like his day will be done. 6 IP, 4 hits 0 R, 3 BB, 8 K
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Unless milb.com is wrong, he came out for the 7th and proceeded to get hit a bit. Single-double-single.
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He also is still walking too many.
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Yeah they did send him back out there. Not really sure why should have taken the 6 innings of shutout ball and been happy, he was over 90 pitches already. And yes I could have done with 1 less walk.
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He may end up finishing the season as he started it back in the first six weeks. Strange how that happens..
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Probably because they’re less concerned with stats than we are.
And if he ends up being a big league pitcher, he’s going to be asked to pitch into the seventh. The organization needs to know how well he pitches when he begins to tire.
He’ll probably always “walk too many.” The question is whether he can be effective while doing so. Today was certainly an encouraging start in that regard.
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There is merit to this but to me inning count doesn’t mean as much as pitch count to me at this point. It is true that you want your pitchers to go as many innings as possible but you want them to do it in the most economical way possible as well. When May has over 90 pitches through 6 and he was struggling the inning before, I don’t think you would want to throw him back out there. Still there was a lot to like about this start.
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Eh, May is going to have bad innings. Justin Verlander has bad innings. A pitcher needs to fail sometimes in the minors to learn how to handle it, and at the tail end of 6 excellent innings is a great time for him to fail. Compare, for example, to Hamels, who early in his major league career had a habit of letting the wheels come off after a bad inning, largely (IMO) because he was too successful (too coddled?) in the minors. Of course, Hamels got past that eventually, but it took his 2009 season to teach him the lesson.
Gets May more experience dealing with a bad inning, but has the first six innings to keep the bad one from getting in his head. I like it.
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Keivi Rojas: 1 inning and 2K’s today in Clearwater.
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Marc Narducci on Martin and Joseph:
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20120812_Prospects_gained_in_Victorino__Pence_trades_show_promise.html
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Bob Brookover on Tyler Cloyd from philly.com:
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20120812_Inside_the_Phillies__Cloyd_patiently_waiting_for_a_chance.html
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Hard to believe…after all the debate ad nauseum on comparing Cloyd to Maddux, look who brings it up again, the manager of all people. C’mon Ryne!… “I played behind a pitcher like that,” Sandberg said. “Greg Maddux was the master of command. That’s what Tyler has going for him. He has the ability to throw strikes, but also the ability to hit the mitt with a particular pitch. The result is often times the hitters miss the sweet spot in the bat. It results in weak balls hit and ground balls when he needs them.”
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I also recall Ryne Sandberg comparing Jason Donald to Craig Biggio, after seeing him in the AFL, but I may be mis-remembering.
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2 more doubles for Asche
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Keep and eye on Carlos Tocci
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Tyler Greene creeping up on Mitch Walding BA, who would have thunk a month ago!
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Are we really going there again.
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Mitch Gueller 4.88 SO/9 innings.
Get this man a bat.
Lakewood April 2013:
Larry Greene LF
Carlos Tocci CF
Dylan Cozens RF
Andrew Pullin 2B
Roman Quinn SS
Zach Green 3B
Shane Watson SP
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I bet you they’re working on some kind of pitch command right now and that’s why he’s struggling, take GCL stats with a grain of salt
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Yes I would agree about GCL stats, Carmona was killing it, a little different at the next level
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They also jumped him over Williamsport.
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