Around the System, Starting Pitching, Top Half

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A look at the starting pitching in the top half of the organization with Lakewood, Williamsport and the GCL to come late in the week.

Lehigh Valley

Tyler Cloyd, 25, Phils 18th round pick in 2008; 23 starts; 14-1 with a 2.07 ERA; 148IP 112H 34BB 104K; 1.03 GO/AO; .213 opp. avg., .254 vs. LH, .164 vs. RH, .189 with RISP. 0.99 WHIP; 2.0BB/6.3K per nine; 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA in 7 starts since July 1.  Frankly the pitching line that Cloyd has put up this year could not be better.  The critics say he doesn’t throw hard enough.  If you know how to pitch, that can make up for 5MPH and then some. I bought in last year before the hype and believe now he should have been in Philly at least a month ago.  What is the downside of giving him a shot?

Jon Pettibone, 22, Phils 3rd round pick in 2008; 22 starts between Reading and Lehigh Valley; 11-7 with a 3.19 ERA; 135.1IP 126H 36BB 94K; 1.39 GO/AO; .246 opp. avg., 2.4BB/6.3K per nine; Pettibone looked very good with Reading and even better with Lehigh Valley early on.  He knows how to pitch and is extremely consistent.

Tom Cochran, 29, SIgned as a free agent in 2012; 21 games; 6-5 with a 4.57 ERA; 104.1IP 94H 60BB 86K; 0.81 GO/AO; .244 opp. avg., 5.2BB/7.2K per nine; .268 vs. LH, .236 vs. RH, .279 with RISP; 1-4 with a 5.85 ERA in 8 starts since July 1.  Has been very unimpressive since coming of the DL with shoulder problems in July.

Scott Elarton, 36, Signed as a free agent in 2012; 24 games , 5-10 with a 5.46 ERA; 127IP 151H 47BB 81K; 0.72 GO/AO; .296 opp. avg., 1.56 WHIP; 3.3BB/4.8K per nine; .321 vs. LH, .277 vs. RH, .296 with RISP; 0-4 with a 7.24 ERA in 8 starts since July 1.  After an exceptional April, ELarton has been consistently bad since.  This is clearly his swan song.

Austin Hyatt, 26, Phils 15th round pick in 2009;23 starts , 8-10 with a 5.39 ERA; 119.2IP 133H 47BB 90K; 18HR allowed; 0.55 GO/AO; .282 opp. avg., 1.50 WHIP; 11 starts for Lehigh Valley, 2-7 with a 6.33 ERA; 1.63 WHIP; .292 opp. avg., 4.3BB/5.8K per nine. .368 with RISP.  Simply said, Hyatt has been awful for Lehigh Valley.

DL: Pat Misch–Out for the year

Reading

Brody Colvin, 22, Phils 7th round pick in 2009; 26 games (21 starts); 6-7 with a 4.76 ERA; 119IP 127H 62BB 101K; 1.10 GO/AO; .283 opp. avg., 4.7BB/7.6K per nine; 1.59 WHIP. 3 starts for Reading: 1-1 with a 8.56 ERA; 13.2IP 14H 11BB 8K; 1.83 WHIP.  Colvin is turning into quite the enigma.  He will have a good outing, followed by a poor one, followed by another where he can’t find home plate with a map. Promoted ahead of others to “light a fire”, he will be back in Clearwater if the control issues continue.

Ethan Martin, 23, Acquired from Dodgers in 2012; 22 starts in AA; 10-6 with a 3.38 ERA; 130.1IP 98H 63BB 120K; 0.92 GO/AO; .212 opp. avg; 1.23 WHIP; 4.3BB/8.3K per nine; Martin has been excellent this year, greatly reducing his walk rate which had been his biggest problem in the past. Having never thrown more than 113 innings in the minors, I would expect the Phils to closely monitor him the balance of the year.

Trevor May, 22, Phils 4th round pick in 2008; 24 starts; 9-10 with a 4.85 ERA; 128IP 120H 71BB 127K; 5.0BB/9.0K per nine; 1.03 GO/AO; .250 opp. avg; .251 vs. LH, .249 vs. RH, .278 with RISP; 2-4 with a 4.57 ERA in 8 starts since July 1.  Not the enigma Colvin is, but a disappointing year after a phenomenal start.  Sustained success simply will not come with walking 5 batters a game.

Adam Morgan, 22, Phils 3rd round pick in 2011; 22 starts; 5-10 with a 3.12 ERA; 130IP 104H 30BB 146K; 0.91 GO/AO; .219 opp. avg., 2.0BB/10.1K per nine.  Morgan has only made one start in Reading and it was excellent and very similar to the year he was having in Clearwater. CLearly has placed himself high on the prospect chart.

Julio Rodriguez, 21, Phils 8th round pick in 2008; 23 games; 6-6 with  4.33 era; 120.2IP 105H 70BB 121K; 13 HR allowed; 0.52 GO/AO; .236 opp. avg., 5.2BB/9.0K per nine; .277 vs. LH, .206 vs. RH, .230 with RISP; 1-5 with a 6.81 ERA since July 1.  Rodriguez has been awful as of late, really struggling with his control.  Not sure if hitters have caught up with him or just a bump in the road. Without overpowering stuff, he simply will not be able to walk over 5 hitters a gain and have success.

DL: David Buchanan, 23, Phils 7th round pick in 2010; Out for the year

Clearwater

Jesse Biddle, 20, Phils 1st round pick in 2010; 23 starts; 8-5 with a 3.45 ERA; 122.2IP 121H 49BB 125K; 0.97 GO/AO; .254 opp. avg; 3.6BB/9.1K per nine; 1.39 WHIP; .240 vs. LH, .262 vs. RH; .227 with RISP; 5-2 with a 3.90 ERA in 11 starts post All Star game.  Biddle has been very good this year but not great.  Allowing too many base runners but bearing down with RISP.  Threw 130 innings last year and I wouldn’t expect him to be much higher than 150 this year. Will be in Reading next year.

Perci Garner, 23, Phils 2nd round pick in 2010; 23 starts; 5-8 with a 4.99 ERA; 119IP 119H 58BB 79K; 1.39 GO/AO; .260 opp. avg.; .260 vs. LH, .278 vs. RH, .274 with RISP. 1.49 WHIP; 4.4BB/5.9K per nine. 2-5 with a 4.92 ERA in 11 post all star starts.  Very mediocre.

Seth Rosin, 23, Acquired from the Dodgers in 2012; 35 games (6 starts) in High A; 2-2 with a 4.33 ERA; 10 saves; 62.1IP 52H 20BB 70K; 6 HR allowed; 0.90 GO/AO; .222 opp. avg., 2.9BB/10.1K per none.  Rosin made one start after coming over in the Victorino deal and it was a fairly good one, however he was scratched from his start on Friday evening.  I am not sure what the nature of the issue was.

Austin Wright, 22, Phils 8th round pick in 2011; 23 games;9-4 with a 3.23 ERA; 128IP 125H 51BB 115K; 1.31 GO/AO; .255 opp. avg., 1.37 WHIP; 3.5BB/8.1K per nine. 3-3 with a 2.44 ERA in 10 post all star game starts. Possibly the Threshers best pitcher this year.  Clearly will be moving up in 2013 if not sooner.

Mario Hollands, Soon to be 24, Phils 10th round pick in 2010; 23 games (14 starts) between Lakewood, Clearwater, Reading; 6-7 with a 4.21 ERA; 92IP 96H 35BB 67K; 0.98 GO/AO; .273 opp. avg.; 3.3BB/6.5K per nine.  Hollands has been a shade under good this year. Inconsistency hurts him.

34 thoughts on “Around the System, Starting Pitching, Top Half”

  1. “If you know how to pitch, that can make up for 5MPH and then some.”

    Err, really? You mean that a guy throwing 88 MPH “well-placed” fastballs and a guy throwing 93 all over the place will both get hammered?

    Just for fun (obviously I have nothing better to do with my Sunday evenings), here’s the list of innings-qualified right-handers in the majors throwing fastballs an average of 89 or less, with results:

    Tim Hudson (FB 88.9): 3.77 ERA
    Jason Marquis (FB 88.7): 5.05 ERA
    Dan Haren (FB 88.7): 4.68 ERA
    Jered Weaver (FB 88.0): 2.13 ERA
    Derek Lowe (FB 87.9): 5.52 ERA
    Bronson Arroyo (FB 87.0): 3.95 ERA

    And, just for fun:
    Kyle Kendrick (FB 90.1): 4.86 ERA

    Weaver aside (and really, let’s not go there), see anybody you like? Six dudes.

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    1. Arroyo is a solid pitcher, capable of pitching in pretty much every rotation in the majors. Tim Hudson is pretty good. I’d take him any day. Weaver is sick. And I would take a flyer on Dan Haren. Marquis has been decent, not so this year, and Lowe has been crap. So yea, I see some guys that I like.

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    2. Yeah. And just for fun, show us a list of guys throwin 93-95 who are sub par as well. If I had a choice between cntrol and speed. I’d take control all day long. Major league players can hit 95 mph fastballs. Especially if they are out over the plate. As we’ve seen this year. One bad mistake can equal 3 runs real quick.

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    3. And if I’m not mistaken, Hudson, Lowe and Marquis are guys who live on groundballs. J-Rod isn’t that. Arroyo has been the pitcher I’ve been hoping J-Rod mirrors most, because he’s the only successful major leaguer I can think of with a high 80s fastball and a big loopy curve.

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      1. That’s probably a good comp for J-Rod’s best case. He still strikes out enough guys (leads EL) at a young enough age where you can dream on him a little. There’s also a chance they turn him into a reliever, where he adds a few MPH to his fastball and becomes a nice 7th inning guy.

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    4. As I’ve said, I’m somewhat agnostic on Cloyd, though leaning toward what seems to be the uniformly negative opinion of the scouts. What I would note about this list – no young guys, Weaver being the youngest. All these guys threw harder when they came up. None of them are remotely comperable to Cloyd at a similar age.

      So what does that mean? I guess it’s possible that it just means that team’s don’t give guys like Cloyd a chance. Or maybe it means that it is dificult verging on impossible, for a right hander to succeed when he breaks in pitching that softly.

      As for the “nothing to lose by bringing him up,” crowd, maybe. But there are PLENTY of guys in the minors who you can make that argument about, and the vast majority of them don’t get chances. And if they did bring them up, one of the young relievers gets sent down – so it’s not as if there isn’t a cost involved. Someone below says that any other team would have brought him up. That is simply not the case. You can argue that baseball as a whole doen’t give pitchers like Cloyd a fair shake, but it is not like the Phillies are alone in that. It’s not that I feel strongly one way or the other on this; I just don’t see it as a no brainer.

      Of course many or most of the people calling for his promotion seem to think that he has a decent chance of duplicating his AAA performance in the majors, and that is simply not the case. The best realistic case for him is a few years as a back of the rotation starter – like all of the guys in the above list are now, except for Weaver. And that has value. But it surely isn’t worth the amount of whining about his non promotion that you see around here.

      Finally, with regard to decisions by the front office, if you can’t imagine whay the team is acting as it did, then maybe you need to consider the possibility that YOU’RE the one missing a key piece of information. And this coming from someone who is not shy about criticising the organization when it is merited by tthe facts. One thing to say that the reason for a move is not a good one, but how can you criticisize a move if you don’t even understand the thought process behing it?

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  2. they need to find out if he can or can’t get MLB hitters out. These games don’t matter. Give him a shot. If Pettibone is the 6th starter next year, who is the 7th? Can Cloyd be that guy? Let’s find out.

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  3. I’d take one of those dudes for league minimum and optionable for 3 seasons.
    He’d be even better if Phillies defense remained top notch. Would not get much help with this club.

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  4. Not to jinx it, but I just noticed how many innings the guys in the upper half of the system have thrown. Pretty amazing how healthy all the starters have been. With all these guys staying healthy, we have about seven guys who could challenge for a rotation spot by mid-2014.

    Nice depth to sustain the inevitable and probably necessary trades in the offseason.

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  5. We can talk about Cloyd until we’re blue in the face. He deserves a chance and I agree with Gregg that he should have been in Philly a month ago and I’ll tell you why. A month ago, there was some hope that the Phils would kick it into gear and take a run at a wild card spot. Cloyd could have given the Phils a chance to win a few games. Think how teams perform against guys they’re seeing for the 1st time. I know over the years, the Phils seem to suck against new call ups. What if he gave them a Marty Bystrom type chance? 4 or 5 wins before the league figures him out and let’s not forget that Marty was traded for Shane Rawley. Rawley had the Cy Young sewn up by August in ’87 but went into a September swoon. He still ended up with 17 wins.

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    1. Bellman..nostalgia with Marty Bystrom. If I remember correctly he was a September call-up and didn’t lose down the stretch in that month.

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    2. Lets start by assuming that Cloyd was going to be taking either Kendrick’s or Blanton’s starts? Since July 1st the Phillies are 2-6 in games started by EITHER Kendrick or Blanton. Here are the specifics.

      July1 – L 2-5 Blanton – 6 IP 3 ER
      July 6 – L 0-5 Kendrick – 7 ip 0 ER
      July 7th – L 3-6 Blanton – 61 IP 5 ER
      July 28th – L 1-2 Blanton – 7 IP 2 ER
      August 3 – L 2-4 Kendrick – 4 IP 2 ER
      August 8 – L 6-12 Kendrick – 3.1 IP 6 ER

      Can’t blame Kendrick for the July 6th Loss and tough to expect better than Blanton’s July 28th effort. At most, Cloyd could have accounted for 4 more wins assuming he was perfect in his starts. Then again, he could have also lost the 2 games that Blanton won in Mid-July.

      I’m all for giving Cloyd a chance the rest of the season but he was not going to save the season a la Marty Bystrom. Phillies record in 2012 is a result of Halladay’s/Lee’s struggles, a terrible bullpen, and some shaky defense.

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      2. Should also have mentioned that the Phillies were .5 games out of 1st when Bystrom made his first appearance, not 10 games back.

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  6. Bellman – well written and oh so true.. I had forgotten about the affect MB had on the 80s team..

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  7. keithlaw ‏@keithlaw
    No, back end guy. “@orenthomas4: @keithlaw Does Jon Pettibone miss enough bats to project as a mid-rotation starter?”

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  8. What Paul Owens did in the 80s was to bring up the top minor league pitcher at the time to give the Phillies a shot in the arm–it worked with Bystrom, Kevin Gross and Bob Walk. The Phillies now have below average performances from Worley (I do not know if it is physical–he showed alot last year) and Kendrick and a season to forget. I really wonder what their thinking is with Cloyd–sometimes their decision making at present makes no sense (look at what they did to put a team together for this year). With any other team in this position, Cloyd would be in the majors for the team to get make decent evaluation about his future.

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    1. On Cloyd, see my coment above. As for “put[ting] a team together for this year” … obviously some moves look bad in retrospect, but certainly – not maybe, certainly – the moves made sense given information available at the time and financial restraints. Both of the “big” contracts have justified themselves based on this year’s performance (down the road is another question). Can you imagine where the team would have been this year without Rollins and Papelbon, as much as the contracts of both, and performance of the former, have been questioned by some? After that, with the money left, they absolutely made reasonable decisions.

      Would it have been nice to have had better replacements for Utley and Howard? Sure. But solid regulars don’t grow on trees, there wasn’t much excess cash to sign them, and anyway free agents good enough to be regulars would likely have avoided a team where they were merely going to be injury fills ins. Nor was it clear in the off season how prolonged the injuries to Utley and Howard would be. Nor could have any realistic off season moves have stopped the starting pitching from being so bad, the single biggest reason for the team’s decline.

      In some ways I’m the LAST guy to defend the organization; I do question Amaro’s talent evaluation skils when it comes to position players, and some of his contracts have ranged from curious to horrible. But they also get a lot of things right, and, espeically on decisions releated to player development, I am very ready to give them the benefit of the doubt.

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      1. Least of all lets not forget that his RHP out of the bullpen completely dissapeard duing ST and the beginning of the year. I think one can realistically question the reliance on Contreras(coming off injury) and Qualls (Road Home splits were concerns raised at the time of the signing), but to then lose Herndon and Stutes to season ending injuries. Defratus for pretty much all of the year, and Kendrick for the year due to filling various rotation spots. It is a little unreasonable to expect hime to be 7-8 deep on major league ready talent for right handed releavers. Add in the expected coming back to earth of Bastardo (he didn’t have to come back that far though) and ineffectivness of Savory and you have your couple of slippery stones to Pappelbon.

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  9. Yeah, the “shot in the arm” argument is to me an argument for leaving him in the minors until the team actually *needs* a shot in the arm. All he’d do this year, if he’s as successful as you think, would be ruin the team’s chances of a top ten draft pick.

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    1. I think that they should see that Cloyd can do now–their record on their top draft choices after Hamels and Utley is not encouraging–some choices were Moss, Golson, Costanzo, Savery, Hewitt!, Maybe Biddle will a top pick that will actually be successful in the malors–we can only hope.

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    2. That’s why I was in favor of bringing up Cloyd a month ago or more. But now, I don’t really care one way or the other.

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  10. The fact is — Cloyd has earned the chance. In any event, the Phils can finish in last place with and without him. They also have budget/luxury tax issues for next year. If Cloyd can pitch effectively, that is, a No. 4-No. 5-type SP, or even long-man RP next year if Kendrick is going to the rotation (to be clear, I am not advocating that, but to the extent that is someone else’s idea, Cloyd may be an in-house alternative), then they may not have to worry about signing a veteran SP or RP for more money. The only way to find out is to give him a shot.

    They need to figure out what they have before heading into the offseason. The time to experiment is now through the end of the season. There is nothing to be gained by Worley pitching with bone chips in his elbow. If he needs surgery, let him get it now and be ready for Spring Training. There is nothing to be gained if Halladay feels any issue or fatigue. That is why I would also advocate bringing up in September Aumont, DeFratus, Hernandez, Diekman and possibly Gillies (though I would not want to reward his recent behavior — at some point, we need to see whether he may be part of the solution going forward, whether he deserves his 40-man roster spot, etc.). No need to bring up everybody, just those on the 40-man roster that the Phils reasonably expect may be able to contribute next year or those that the Phils want a closer look at for consideration for inclusion on the 40-man roster over the off-season (i.e. someone like Ruf who has performed well this year but is on the bubble, not someone like May who will be protected in any event, not someone like Valle who still has work to do in the minors and Kratz is vastly ahead of him right now anyway) or long-term plans (e.g. Gillies).

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  11. For me if you are going to be an effective MLB pitcher you need to have a Sub 1.20 WHIP and a K/9 at or above 8 in the minors. If you have those 2 stats going for you in a large enough sample size chances are pretty good that you have the stuff to pitch in the big leagues.

    Whether or not you become a front of or the back of rotation guy will hinge on how the league adjusts to you after seeing you 3 and 4 times. Given that Cloyd’s WHIP would indicate he can do it but his K/9 suggests he might eventually struggle some. At the very least regardless of his FB he could easily out perform KK and maybe be a Joe Blanton type pitcher….for much less cost!

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  12. I have a real problem with defending the phillies off season moves.First qualls in hindsight and every other word was a really bad signing.He showed nothing to think he would be a asset to this team.Wigginton, was another. even if you though he could hit, he cant play defense. loved pierre from the begining,because though at least he would be a michael bourn type , as far as getting on base late in games. or as a late inning pinchrunner who could score from second on a single. and steal a base., i loved when we had bourn doing that in the begining. The bullpen is hard to blame amaro, because he lost, stutes, defraus, contrares, thats a lot. Now in the case of howard Its hard to believe, that amaro didnt know he would be out as long as he was, utley was a suprise,so I quess you have to give him a pass because of the injuries, but still dont know if amaro can be the man to evalute the team and find the right talent.Someone thought that mayberry could be the answer in left, that to me is a joke,. the guy has shown not to have the talent to be a everyday player, so what made them think all of a sudden at 27.He could be that guy,big mistake.

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    1. The Phillies were the Scammies this past year. They knew they needed big bats even without the injuries and did nothing.

      The upside for this disaster is that we’re going to get Josh Hamilton this winter.

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      1. Even setting aside the oft repeated but also oft ignored fact that the biggest reason for the team’s collapse this season was starting pitching, relief pitching second, and hitting the least of our problems, just who should the team have gone after, at what position, with what money?

        If you look at positions of need and who was available, excluding a couple of guys who were good signs only in hindsight, you have …Micheal Cuddyer. The signing of whom would have meant not signing Rollins or Papelbon, leaving a hole at one of those positions. Yawn. Or, okay, let’s be fair, Beltran. Signing him might have meant signing NEITHER Rollins or Papelbon, though, and I still remember how negative this board was about him at the trade deadline when some people proposed trading for him. And he’s 35. And who knows if he picks Philadelphia even if we had made am offer.

        As for Hamilton, pass. There will be better/cheaper options.

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        1. Was there a “better/cheaper option” when the Yankees were looking at Babe Ruth?

          Reggie Jackson?

          The Phillies are going for the biggest TV contract in MLB history and the “better/cheaper options” will not help that effort.

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          1. What about the penalty of the ‘luxury tax’ overage? Not just money…but draft choices. Even Brian Cashman and the richest franchise in the world, next to Man U., has reservations about the lux-tax.

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  13. Still think amaro over played his hand with papelbon. No one else was willing to go for that kind of money,he still imo should have waited to see the market. and to our suprise he could have had madson back cheap. and i know he got hurt,but it would have been the right move. instead of paying four years at those number for papelbon.especially when you spent a lot of picks. in last years and the year before draft on future relief pitchers , like schwimer, de fraus, stutes, rosen ber and others. but the phillies do no wrong. and hamilton would be a huge mistake. Huge, didnt amaro and his scouts see wigginton, and how bad his defense is, and how bad qualls was before he got here. and didnt his scouts see how bad pence defense was before he gave away the farm for him. oh they do no wrong, tell me who the scout was who recommend that trade,and as far as michael cuddyer he could have payed him if he didnt over pay for pap, and the other junk like wigginton he brought here, but the phillies never do any thing wrong.he tied his own hands by jumping the gun on pap.just like he did with howard, and pence, and others.amaro so far to me is overmatched. and the help he is getting is helping him. make any smart decisions.

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    1. Who cares dude? It’s only money, the one thing the Phillies have an infinite supply of. They print it faster than the Philadelphia Mint.

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  14. We could also have had Josh Willingham who signed for 3 years at $7 million per asnd has put up monster numbers in Minnesota…..actually many people wanted Willingham at the 2011 trade deadline instead of Pence, and we would have saved our farm system by not dealing Singleton, Cosart & Santana to Houston…..not sure how much talent it would have taken to get Willingham from Oakland, but we should have at least signed him this offseason……..look at his numbers this year…….

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