Box Score Recap 8-8-2012

Box Score Recap

VSL Phils win the series and the VSL League Championship for 2012.  Well done.  Maybe we’ll see a couple of those names in DSL or even GCL next year.

LV  REA  CLR  LKW  WIL  GCL  DSL ppd VSL

184 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 8-8-2012”

  1. Willians Astudillo continues to intrigue me. Where does the young man go next season? And what position(s) will he be playing? Cannot recall any other Phillie prospect with such plate skills when it comes to K%, does anyone know of any previous prospect with that unique ability?

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    1. Seems to me, the VSL squad had a couple of other position players with similar strikeout/walk type of numbers a couple of years back. They were both released, however.
      I figure they always need back-up catchers, and Astudillo could at least be a back-up catcher, so maybe he goes to Lakewood to back-up Numata and Moore or somebody , or maybe vice-versa/ Or maybe to WPT and starts or teams with Moore or somebody.
      Have to see how it shakes out.

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      1. Thanks marfis, I guess Willians will be groomed to be a versatile utility type guy with back up catching and some infield. Phillies might as well give him shots at the corner OFs at some point.

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        1. I think Willians needs to catch to advance. It is nice that he can play some 1B and 3B to share playing time, but he does not really project to have enough offense for those positions. It will be an interesting test to see if he can keep this approach of swinging at everything with more advanced pitchers. It should be Lakewood if the Phillies think anything of him as a prospect. They could have 3 catchers with Numata and Moore with Williams catching maybe twice a week and playing a little 1B on the side. If Williams is in Williamsport that is a sign he is not a prospect.

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          1. There is no guarantee that the Phillies promote 19 year old, Gabriel Lino to Clearwater. He still has to work on a few things and is younger than the guys currently in Williamsport. Numata may have to sit another year at Williamsport if Lino is not promoted.

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  2. Scout writeups today on Tocci and Cozens at BP. Scouts like both, but are concerned about Tocci’s power potential and the ultimate position for Cozens . . . basically the questions you’d have about two teenagers in the GCL.

    I assume Goldstein just left off the scout comping Tocci to Matt Kemp because he hates the Phillies, though.

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    1. Its basically impossible to judge power potential on a 16 year old. He’s going to put on 40-50 lbs of muscle in the next 5-6 years as he matures. Tocci probably has the most upside of anyone in our system right now…and maybe a 5% chance of achieving that upside.

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  3. Baseball Prospectus ran a “What Scouts Are Saying” piece and a pair of Phillies came up.

    Carlos Tocci: Scouts continue to be impressed by what he is doing at his age, swing and approach are good and he is extremely fast. However, future projections cannot be made until he fills out more because his power is currently non-existent.

    Dylan Cozens: Positive reviews despite the recent struggles. Swing looks good with tons of power. Concerns are how big does he get and how does that effect where he plays long term, but if it pans out the bat should play anywhere.

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    1. Cozens seems limited to three positions….LF, RF or 1st. Lefty throw and size, relative to speed, seem to be the ultimate determinants.

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      1. How many players with his size have stuck to the outfield? I’m searching my mind for one and am struggling to come up with a name.

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        1. So, assuming as he ages he gets stronger and naturally bigger/heavier, then eventually he becomes pigeoned at 1st!

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          1. If that happens, there is a ton of pressure on the bat to play at a huge level. Not to stay it is impossible it just takes him down a notch if he can’t play RF.

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        2. Adam Dunn is a good physical comp as a former football player. Dave Winfield would be the best case scenario. There are lots of guys that get moved to 1B once they add 30 pounds however. Cozens is not like a Strawberry who was much more slender. Dunn could run when he was young, however. And he was a decent OF for 4 or 5 years, certainly better than Pat Burrell was.

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          1. Burrell was a better LF than Dunn. Dunn was probably the worst LF in the last 25 years. Burrell at least had good fundamentals and a very accurate arm.

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            1. Dunn had much more speed in his early years. IMO all the stories about Burrell being good were invented by the Phillies to justify the move there. He was really pretty bad out there. He had a decent arm but that was it. Dunn was not great, but he was a little more mobile. He stole 20 bases a year in the minors and 19 in his first full big league season.

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            2. Burrell had a very accurate arm. It wasn’t strong but it was very accurate. He had zero range but he fielded balls cleanly if he got to them. His range was a bit better before the foot injuries (the same ones that basically destroyed his career). Dunn was a bit more mobile but his instincts/fundamentals were always poor.

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            3. Way back in the day, there were guys liek Dave Parker and I think Ellis Valentine was pretty big…Parker more liek WInfield but Valentine a it shorter I think.

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          2. Wow, I’d forgotten how tall Winfield was! Unfortunately, per B-R, Cozens is already 15 pounds heavier than Winfield in his playing days (235 vs. 220). That’s at 18 years old …

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        3. Carlos Lee(6’2′ 270) is probably the best example. Up until the last couple years the defensive stats were always surprisingly kind to him, he was never really good but he was better then you’d think looking at him. Jermaine Dye had some pretty good years listed at 6’5″ 245. Hard to think of other guys who are quite that big but there are certainty some 230+ pound guys who are hidden in the outfield when there bats are big enough (Matt Holiday, Lance Berkman come to mind).

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        4. Dave Parker was huge back in his day.

          I’d be more worried about how Cozens suddenly got so huge and what that portends for the future.

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        5. Frank Howard comes to mind. 6’7″ with huge power, played right field early, moved to left and played the outfield til he was 35 and nearly done.

          Dave Winfield is the best tall player of all time. But Winfield was also one of the greatest athletes ever to play the game. One of only two athletes ever drafted by the NFL, NBA and MLB.

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        6. Dave Kingman was 6’6″ 210, Winfield was 220. Frank Howard was 6’7″ 255 and played OF a long time. Different era but still… If we’re worried about his size take a look at the 8 SB to 1 CS. I played football in HS with a guy who was 6’6″ 235 and he was the 3rd or 4th fastest guy in the HS. We had the national 100 yard dash champion 2 years in a row in my school. The big guy couldn’t beat him but he could make it interesting.

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      2. Cozens is 7-9 in SB. He has speed. Guy is a physical freak, I don’t think we need to worry about him going to first anytime soon.

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        1. Not to encourage the Adam Dunn comps above, but he stole 21 bases his first full season. Guys get bigger as they get older. It doesn’t happen overnight, but Cozens won’t be in the majors overnight, either. It’s a concern.

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          1. We might be able to play him at Power forward for teh 76ers a little and maybe tight end for the eagles…if he gets any bigger than he is now….(6’6″ 235) and fast…

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            1. When he and Larry Greene come up we will win any bench clearing brawl. But Tocci better be Garry Maddox between them.

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        1. If he’s anything like Stanton, that would be great. Stanton’s had some trouble with his legs already though, but I guess it’s pure speculation that his size is the reason.

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          1. The comp was purely based on his size, but yes, there are some similarities in terms of skills as well… (though it’s wayyyy early)…. I figure there’s a 3% chance he’s Mike 2.0

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            2. Man, you can’t just slap a percentage on something and have that mean something. Who are the 97 out of 100 people with Cozens skill set who did not become Mike Stanton, and who are the 3 who did become Mike Stanton?

              The funny thing is I agree with your point entirely. But putting a percentage to it transforms it instantly from “interesting speculation” to “meaningless drivel”.

              Apologies for the tone, but I see posts like this all the time on here and it drives me crazy. You can’t put a percentage on things that are totally unquantifiable.

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    2. Cozens was also a defensive end in high school. He probably bulked up to play the position, as he was also roughly 500K from playing D1 SEC football. Just because he’s big now, doesn’t mean he’ll stay that big as he begins to focus on baseball.

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  4. The two guys that stand out the most on the box scores today are Franco and Cloyd. Franco is really heating up and I don’t think there is any doubt he should end up in CLW next year. I am more encourage by 8Ks by Cloyd than if he had put up another scoreless outing. He is going to need to strike batters out to have success in the majors.

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    1. Agree with the comment re: Cloyd! I PAID to see the Phillies play last night & I would have rather seen him pitch then the pitiful performance from Kendrick! (And Kendrick was pitching so well in relief…oh I get it, let’s set him up fpr failure).
      For all the haters out there: forget about Cloyd’s velocity, starting his clock, strike out ratio, etc. for a moment. The guy has had an outstanding season (probably the best by any pitcher in the organization). He deserves a chance, especially when there is an opening!
      Tell me the truth…if you were taking your family to the game last night (and sapending about $500) would you rather see Kendrick or Cloyd? Did the Phils have a better chance to win with Kendrick or Cloyd? If Cloyd gets lit up the haters win and we know where we stand with Cloyd. If he pitches a good game, then the organization may have a trading chip at the very least!!!

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      1. Nobody ‘hates’ Cloyd, and I think everyone feels that he at least deserves a chance to sink or swim. The Cloyd ‘haters’ are merely just being realistic.

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        1. Realistic about what? There were 41, 501 in attendance last night…about 4000 below a sell out (4000 x $100pp = $400,000). That’s realistic! With an inferior product (they started minimart in center a few games ago) the attendance will continue to decrease. When revenue falls by $20 million, and ruben has less to spend, the snowball continues. Give the fans entertainment and they will come out to support the team. We can’t make the playoffs this year, but maybe we can see the future (Ruf v present bench?) now.

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      3. I’d rather see Cloyd fail than Kendrick fail. Or frankly, even Pettibone. Only 3-4 more starts until September though..Dang, that was a dumb contract

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      4. If Cloyd gets lit up in his first game, that hardly proves anything. He would need at least 3 or 4 starts to get any idea about him.

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  5. Was at the Iron Pigs game last night. Some quick observations from the game (two caveats – was out in the centerfield lawn seats with 4 kids scurrying around – and my next professionally scouted game will be my first)

    Missed the first inning (I mentioned taking 4 kids to the game, right?) so we were down 2-0 when I walked in. Wasn’t lost on me (and playing Dr. Phil here – maybe Cloyd) that Kendrick was going last night and was in the process of getting lit up. Thought that was interesting, like two auditions.
    Looks from the recap that Cloyd struggled a bit in the inning with a couple of walks and it also sounds like the defense behind him wasn’t great. I noted in the recap they called out the “single off Pete Orr’s glove at third”. Anyway from that point on I was really impressed with Cloyd. He is what he is and wasn’t lighting up the radar gun, but there were definitely a couple of disappearing ball tricks he pulled on some batters. Being in centerfield actually gave me a great vantage point of his movement, and his ball really does move. I can’t tell if it’s change-up or slider but on his swings and misses the ball really dropped on some of the righties. The other thing I noticed was that of his 8, I believe, strikeouts at least four were looking. So after the first he definitely had the hitters off balance. Except for Fred Lewis, who doubled off him in the first and then hit a blast off a mistake to dead center in the 5th. So I think that is to be expected of a pitcher like Cloyd – won’t have a huge margin for error, but I can away impressed. I can also say, you know, from over 100 yards away, he seemed to be fooling the ump as well. Quite a number of pitches that had the crowd upset that looked good from where I was. Maybe that contributed to the 4 walks. All in all – I was impressed.

    One other thing I do want to mention, as there was some banter here lately, was Cesar Hernandez in the field. Please see my comment above about my scouting experience, or lack there of, but he looked extremely good to me. He gets to a lot of balls, looked very sure handed, and more importantly, very smooth. He made a number of plays they replayed on the big board, was involved three double plays and he really, really looked exceptional. I know there was a evaluator who mentioned “not great defense” or something like that (on the heels of being voted best defensive second basemant in the Eastern League) but looked outstanding from what I saw.

    Only other thing that really caught my eye (or maybe it was who I focused on) but Valle looked really bad at the plate. Think it was 0-5 with 4 K’s, and didn’t look comfortable at all. Saw his last AB up close (ended up right behind dugout for last two innings) and he was just flailing away up there.

    If anyone has any other specific questions fire away, I’ll see what I can remember.

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    2. Where was Cloyd sitting on Lehigh’s gun (I know its a slow gun obviously but what was he showing up at?)

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      1. I was also at the Pigs game. I agree with the assessment of Cloyd. He topped out at 87 but the movement on his ball keeps the hitters off balance leading to a good number of swings and misses. He seemed to tire in the 7th and exited after walking 2 straight. Valle had a really rough night as the WAWA RBI man.

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    3. Your perceptions on Hernandez in the field are consistent with my personal observations. He did not just look competent – he appeared to be very good in the field.

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    4. Guys, I think the Phils are a little too high on Valle. A guy that doesn’t walk and makes poor contact is not going to make it. His defense is not up to par either.

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      1. Defensively he’s raw but solid. I agree that he will likely never stick at hte MLB level because he simply has zero plate discipline or pitch recognition skills. His OBP numbers have not improved at all in the upper minors. I think they bumped him to Lehigh to get him out of the way of Joseph who they see as the far superior prospect.

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        1. I was facing away from the gun so didn’t see every ptich but high 80’s was the most I say. Did have someone flail horribly at what I assume was a curve that was 74.

          I’ve heard varying reports on the gun at Coca Cola Park. DeFratus was sitting at 93-94 consistently and Aumont was consistently 94-95 with the occassional 96. He was another interesting one to observe (Aumont). Got himself into some problems with walks (and no help from Blanco at short. He seemed, to me, the opposite of Hernandez. Not “bad” mind you but definitely go eaten up on some hard hit balls) but then got out of it – the final strikeout on a nasty something, not fastball, that the batter missed by a foot. And so here we are again with him – nasty stuff, needs control.

          At the plate Hernandez looked solid if unspectacular. Good contact guy, not a ton of hard hit balls, think he had one hit. Good balance, if a novice like me can say that. He definitely seems the old school, non-Utley second basemen. Good D, good average, not much power.

          Hope that helps!

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            1. Steve said he was topping out at 87 and it seems like the gun’s 2-3 MPH slow. He was probably sitting 86-89 and maybe touching 90.

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          2. As I’ve said throughout the year, I think the LHV gun is about 1-3 MPH slow (I think 2 MPH is a good guesstimate). Early in the year, that gun had Diekman sitting at 89-92 but when he was in Philly, he was pitching 94-97. Similarly, Rosenberg was at around 93-95 on the LHV gun, but has been consistently 95-97 in Philly. Personally, I think Aumont is likely sitting in the 95-99 range with his FB. His control is coming together slowly and unevenly. If and when he can maintain that control he will be nearly unstoppable. He has the best pure stuff in the entire organization – including the Big Three. He’s that talented.

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            2. Aumont had no breaking ball at all in spring training. Saw a video clip on the website about two months ago and his curveball was big. What happened to the sharp 12 – 6 drop he had back in the WBC?

              Of course, his fastball is good enough that if he could learn to use it and throw strikes with it he could be a starter in MLB like Padilla was for so long, but he can’t throw strikes.

              The guy is a mess.

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  6. VSL- well they will have at least one championship in the Minor League department for this season. That’s important, to me.

    Good games for Wilson Garcia and Francisco Herrera.

    See the VSL Mariners started Ugueth Urbina. Born in ’94, so not the more famous one. Might be a descendant. If the more famous Ugueth is out of Jail, now or soon, maybe Philly can get a shot at a low cost Middle Reliever.

    The DSL comment, despite the claims of a few that the VSL is a step below the DSL, teams do not generally ever promote from the VSL to the DSL. Not Unless you have wind that the Philly organization will close the VSL academy , leave the VSL, and place all of their future Latin American signees in the Dominican. But that is not the case, Is It?

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    1. They could trade Polly for him. Maybe sign David Bell out of retirement to hold down third. 🙂

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    2. Teams that have both a VSL and DSL team have to play the Venezuelan prospects by rule in the VSL. This is probably one of the reasons people dropped their VSL teams because the quality of play was/is better in the DSL.

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  7. Franco continues to hit … Ruf and Castro do what they do … Martin with a nice start, albeit low K numbers.

    What’s the deal with LGJ? Haven’t seen him in the lineup the past few days.

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    1. Mitch mentioned the other day he was iced on his calf or leg or something. Sounds like he did some running in front of the trainer the next day and then was scratched from the lineup.

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  8. Wilson Garcia is an interesting prospect from the VSL. He is a bit over aged for the league at 19 and there are questions to the caliber of play in the league but he is a 19 yr old switch-hitting catcher/1st-baseman. He was among the leaders in almost all batting categories.

    He finished the year:
    3rd in batting average with .353
    3rd in OPS with .903
    3rd in SLG with .512
    2nd in 2B with 18
    5th in hits with 71
    3rd in RBI’s with 38
    6th in TB with 103

    And he did this with 50 to 85 less plate appearances than most of the league leaders.

    He also only had 12 strikeouts in all most 220 plate apperances.

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    2. Garcia was born in January of 1994, so is only 18. He only signed last season at 17 when first eligible to do so, so I don’t think that age thing is worth anything at all. The promoted idea that because some Latin American players go directly to GCL at 16, that’s a benchmark for all, don’t see it. A lot of American HS players are not younger that some of the “overage” Latin America signees.
      The main stat you don’t include, height and weight,
      They still have him at 5’11, 160.
      As a Catcher and 1B, find that “iffy”.
      I said that when they first signed him, but, then, because he was 17 then, he was “great”.

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  9. Franco to me is still a better bet than Asche. Took him a while to adjust but it looks like he’s figured out the SALLy.

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    1. plus he is a right handed bat, asche swings left. phils always seem short from the right side.
      saw him at carpenter center this spring and he was hitting the long ball regularly. impressive power for his age and size. saw asche recently and i like his potential also.

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  10. So, how many home runs does Ruf have to hit to be considered a “power prospect”? Especially in the pitcher friendly Eastern League.

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    2. EL is neutral, but Reading is a very hitter-friendly park, and Ruf’s #s coorespond to this (though he is still pretty strong on the road). He’s got good power, but probably only 55-60 on a scout scale.

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    3. I would not mind Ruf getting a September look. If he’s hitting invite him in the spring. I’m not a fan of pigeon-holing players simply because they are old. If this is his peak and he can be productive bench bat for 2-3 years, what’s wrong with that?

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        1. All of these guys everyone wants to call up are not on the 40 man roster.
          They’re not getting called up.

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    4. exactly! Funny thing about age, if you put up 23 HRs and 75 rbis at 26 all people will do is point out his negatives, if you are 23 with same numbers all people will talk about is upside………..

      Btw , nice day by the staff at reading,…. martin and knigge continue….

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      1. Nothing funny about it. A 23 year old with those stats is probably a thouand times mre likely to have a productive major league career. For a lot of reasons; the main one being that the 23 year old really does have a lot of upside, whereas the 26 year old is probably already at or near his peak. This coming from probably the most enthusiastic Ruf booseter (me) among the knowledgeable posters.

        That, said, he may well eventually be an effective reserve. If he can learn to play left field. Which he can do most effectively where he is now, with no pressure and playing every day.

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    5. Howard had something like 37 HRs in his Age 23 season in Reading…for a comparison. Ruf is now 26.

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      1. It does’t matter. The idea is to get as much value as we can out of our prospects. Ruf is not going to be a regular player. Noone is expecting that. But if he can do Laynce Nix’s job for a league minimum for a few years, we can use the savings towards some other players.

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        1. Nix is making basically 2 1/2X ML minimum so the trade-off doesn’t net much cash even assuming that Ruf’s AA performance come anywhere close to Nix’s ML performance.

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            1. I’d put the under on Ruf’s production being better than Nix, though I still think he deserves a shot. Laynce Nix at his salary is the least of our concerns in ’13.

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            2. Because you are ASSUMING that Ruf can give you the same production. The same assumptions were made on this board last year regarding Savery, Schwimer and the other ‘throw away’ arms in the AAA bullpen. You see what happened. They saved a few 100K on each guy, and blew about a dozen games.
              You can’t assume Ruf is the same as Nix because he hit at AA for half of a season. Nix, when healthy, is a decent Major league player at his salary. Ruf is a 26 year old with one good season at AA under his belt.

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            3. In fairness, though, Ruf’s season is right in line with his prior seasons. This is not a Rizzotti, come out of almost nowhere, season. Though as I said above, he needs to show he can play the OF first. And it’s not like Nix’ salary is going away; if he was traded, we would likely have to pay some of it. So the salary savings issue is specious.

              As for the comparison, I think Ruf would duplicate Nix’ normal production, which isn’t saying much. But Nix can actually play decent defense in the OF; Ruf likely will be adequate at best. So it is far from a no brainer. With Mayberry in the mix also, I don’t think there is a spot for Ruf.

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            4. The thing I don’t get about Ruf, is why isn’t he in AAA? His OPS now almost a full .100 better than the second leading guy. Is this just a Duffy situation where they think he’s giving lineup protection to Asche and Joseph? That’s all I can come up with. If the Phils were at all concerned with his individual development, he’d be with LHV by now.

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            6. Just for giggles, looked up Nix’ only AA season with signficasnt playing time (2003). Quite good, not quite what Ruf is producing. But Nix was 22.

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            7. To be fair, Schwimer has emerged as the 2nd best reliever on the team in his latest callup. It just took him 3 tries to stick at the MLB level.

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  11. Cutters Baseball ‏@crosscutters
    Cutters add OF Jiandido Tromp to the roster from GCL Phillies. Tromp hails from Aruba. #GoCutters

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    1. Interesting move. Tromp has come on of late at the plate. And will not turn 19 until next month, so I guess they may want to see how he handles different pitching!

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      1. It also is likely due to lack of OF options for WPT. LG has had a minor leg issue recently, and missed a few games. Olmo had to come out of the game last night, and we had a backup catcher out in LF.

        But regardless, I hope he gets playing time up there.

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        1. I agree. Hope Tromp can get some ab’s at Williamsport. Also helps a guy like Steve Golden get some extra abs in the GCL.

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        2. I think you’re right. Based on Mitch Rupert’s comments, hoppy is the only one who can play CF right now, so perhaps Tromp can fill in there and for Greene as well. The Phils clearly like him, so I guess this is not totally off the wall.

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  12. Anyone know what to make of Hoby Milner? Lefty with a fastball in the low to mid 90’s, 6’2” 165lb frame. Used as a reliever/ starter in Texas. Up to 18 consecutive innings without giving up a run in Lakewood.

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    1. Should get an opportunity to remain a starter, likely in CLW in 2013. Could use to put on more weight. Like Brady, he was also a guy ranked pretty high prior to his senior season, but was used primarily (and effectively) out of the pen.

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    2. I think we’ll see how he does next year. His K and BB rates aren’t great right now, but he’s finally getting stretched out the last couple weeks, and I would guess he’s regularly using one more pitch than he had to in the bullpen at Texas this spring. 2013 in Clearwater (likely) will give us a better idea on him.

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  13. Tyson Gillies ‏@TysonGillies21
    Calling all my sons @jayjohnr @Trevmay54 @Jiwan23 @druf15 @_TommyJoseph_ …Papas coming home Weeeew Weew! #longlivethekid!

    Seems like he’s heading back up to reading.

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    2. I’m surprised he didn’t include @RPhilsBusDriver in his tweet.

      In all seriousness, here’s to hoping the string of bad luck/bad decisions is over for this guy. He’s got the talent to be patrolling CF in Citizens Bank Park in a few years or less, he just needs to put it together.

      #crossyourfingers

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        1. No future because….?

          Based on his skills it seems impossible to rule him out now. Based on his injury/ off the field history, then maybe.

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          1. How many position players have come back from essentially 3 years lost development to have a successful career? Serious question. I’d bet it isn’t many. Though IMO he does profile as a good back up even if he doesn’t become a regular.

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            1. Larry you need to report to the police station. You know you’re not allowed to post on boards talking about Carlos Tocci.

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  14. Gillies is indeed headed back to Reading, while Kennelly is now with Clearwater to continue his pitching adventures

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    1. Would have been pretty amazing for him to stick with AA bullpen with 4 pro appearances or whatever. Should be interesting to watch his stats and see if he can get people out regularly.

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      1. As opposed to seeing if he can eat a sandwich while on the mound. That was a weird thing for me to say.

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    2. Could we see Kennelly play all 9 positions in one game? I believe he’s played all OF positions at least once and the corner infield and of course he was a catcher too. 2B and SS would be no big deal for an inning. Maybe he could coach at 1B and 3B and make a trip to the mound to take himself out of the game. He’d do everything but sell hot dogs… wait a minute…

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    1. Supposedly, his shoulder is so bad that he’ll be lucky if he can play catch with his kids (when he has kids that is).

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  17. Biddle article up at BA, subscribers only

    Summary

    Thinks signing early was huge for him
    has an array of pitches that could become plus in time
    FB sits 88-92 and touches 94
    Phillies like maturity and work ethic the most

    the rest was mostly fluff, just siting stats and him being a phillies fan all his life

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  18. Should we attach any significance to the fact that Leandro Castro was playing CF for Reading last night? I looked on baseball reference and it seems like he’s played there a handful of times this year. I don’t know whether that’s just a stopgap thing until Gillies gets back (soon apparently?) or if they’re trying him out in center. If he has the skills to stick there defensively, that makes his bat a lot more attractive, but it seems like the reports we’ve gotten is that he is merely OK in right.

    Shane Watson stuck out the side, that’s nice to see. Ethan Martin is making that Victorino trade look pretty good so far.

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    2. It was because Tripp was in right and Myers in left, when these 3 play OF it is Catro who plays in center, that is all

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    1. Yes, IMO, if he pitches every once in a while. Charlie will look to him every chance he gets. So if he’s gonna pitch in 50% of the games, I’m sure he’ll struggle pretty much like anyone would.

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  21. Regarding Ruf, and to the “his age doesn’t matter crowd”… sooner or later you guys are going to be right. An older player is going end up a star at the MLB level. As much as I’d like to say it doesn’t happen, it does. That said, the fact is there are 99 failures for every 1 that suceeds. And that’s why the rational side of this site says “back-up hitter at best”. Doesn’t mean we don’t root for him and hope he defys the odds, it just means we are keeping things in perspective. Same applies to Cloyd right now btw.

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    1. I think it’s a little different for hitters and pitchers in this situation, even if the result that neither becomes a regular MLer is likely. By that I mean, if a pitcher like Cloyd dominates, it’s pretty easy to see a fastball that’s high 80s or a breaking ball w/o much bite and say “that probably won’t play at the next level.” It’s harder to look at a hitter that’s dominating and say, I don’t know, his hands aren’t quick enough or something.

      That’s where the scouts come in, but I haven’t heard any kind of scouting report on Ruf. The only thing you ever hear is “too old”. But what holds him back, talent-wise? Limitations as a 1B are one thing, but when he’s not even getting the AAA job over Overbeck, it’s got to be something else.

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    2. Look how long Ibanez was stuck in the minors. Its possible to break out late in your career. I don’t think anyone who supports Ruf thinks of him as an every-day player. But its possible he can provide value as a league-minimum bench bat.

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      2. I think there are some indicators that are important for hitters. And Ruf has most of them. A short swing, power, contact, a good eye for the strike zone, willing to take a walk . Those are typically traits that most prospects DON’T have. But they are young and fast. And there you have it. Young and fast but weak in fundamentals wins out over old, slow and fundamentally sound. That is why most prospects fail. IMO.

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    4. It’s rare for older players to suddenly blossom into stars, but does happen occasionally. Look at Roy Hobbs. He was blocked in right by Bump Bailey, until the guy crashes into the wall and dies, and then all of the sudden he’s a superstar leading the Knights to the World Series, seeping bullet wound and all. Of course, some would argue that small sample size applies, and it’s true that his BABIP was something like .750, but still–there’s hope for Darrin Ruf. If he happens to have a bat forged by lightning.

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      1. Jesus, that’s embarrassing, someone else just made the same joke while I was typing mine. WAAH WAAH WAAHHHHH

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          1. BABIP is a joke. Two identical hitters, but the one who strikes out more has a higher BABIP. Dumb stat.

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            1. “the one who strikes out more has a higher BABIP. Dumb stat.”

              You know what BABIP stands for, right?

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            2. I know exactly what it is. Howard has a 323 lifetime and Utley has a 307. If Utley had only struck out more instead of grounding out his BABIP would go up. And if Howard had popped up more instead of striking out his would go down. Proving what? Like I said. Dumb stat. But if that’s too harsh, I’ll change it to “stat of limited value.”
              I’m not trying to be rude. If I have it wrong, please let me know.

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            3. For what it’s worth, I don’t normally use BABIP when evaluating batters. If you do you have to put it along side of LD, GB and FB %s to draw any sort of conclusions with it. Batters can actually sustain rather high BABIPs over long periods of time. I’ve always seen BABIP’s value tied to evaluating a pitcher’s performance. BABIP for pitchers is generally in the same ballpark for everyone and a low BABIP is not that sustainable over a long period. In short BABIP isn’t a great measure of luck for hitters but it is for pitchers.

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            4. Agree completely. If a batter has a low BABIP and a high rate of line drives it means something. As would a high BABIP with very few line drives.

              For pitchers, same thing. If a pitcher is getting guys to chase outside the zone or jamming hitters he should have a low BABIP against him and to his credit. But if he is giving up line drives then he is getting lucky.

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            5. There’s truth to what you say. However, BABIP is a nice quick method for pick out players who, whatever their line drive rate or speed (IF hits), are not going to be able to sustain thier BA (or are likely to improve their BA) as an extreme BABIP normalizes. “Rather high” is a relative term; aside from players who are extreme line drive hitters AND very fast, anything over .330 is unlikey to be sustainable (there are exceptions, but not many). And a LOT of players manage BABIP well over .330 in a SSS (and for BA, a year’s worth of data can be a small sample). If one focuses only on the extremes – say, over .350 or under .250 – a prediction of regression will almost always be correct. I don’t think I’ve ever made a BABIP prediction that hasn’t been borne out, and very few people around here even bring it up but for extreme events.

              However, despite that utility, I have cut down a lot on using the term, mainly because those who understand its value generally ALSO understand that you can’t place too much weight on SSS BA fluctuations. So you don’t (generally) need the concept for people who understand sample sizes, whereas the people who don’t understand sample sizes also don’t understand BABIP. You end up preaching to the choir.

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            6. That is not really the logic behind it. If Utley had struck out more, his BA would be lower. If Howard had struck out less, his BA would go up. There really isn’t a correlation between popping up vs. striking out.

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            7. BABIP disregards Ks, HRs and Walks … thus, a groundout instead of a strikeout would increase the number of at bats, thus lowering the BABIP.

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  23. Derrick Mitchell accomplished the near impossible today. Struck out 4 times in 4 ab’s against GCL pitchers.

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  24. Andrew Pullin is a beast. If he had enough PA’s to qualify (about 8 more) he would have the highest OPS in the GCL among 2012 draftees. He would be 2nd among all teenagers. Zach Green would be 3rd among teenagers.

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    1. Thats exciting to read. Apparently a slew of potentially outstanding prospects coming out of the GCL and WPT.

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  29. Morgan seems special. People don’t think he has the stuff or whatever but he just seems like he’s got something going for him. 7 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 6K. Reading the play by play it doesn’t seem like much of any strong contact was made by the opposing batters.

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      1. herp a derp.

        When only 3 balls leave the infield, you’re doing something right. If you’re consistently inducing weak contact and infield pops, you’re going to have a lower than .300 BABIP. It wasn’t a fluke he was so dominating, I was there. I would wager you weren’t.

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        1. My remark was sarcastic. Relating to an earlier post that over evaluated a low BABIP against as a way of determining a pitcher’s worth. I watched the whole game. I love Morgan as I do Cloyd. And Ruf is obviously over-rated and should stay at AA. 🙂 (sarcasm again)

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  31. Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler
    Big-time rise for Phillies prospect this year RT @jmb4028 AA debut for Adam Morgan: 7IP 1H 0R 2BB 6K

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    1. If he keeps doing what he’s been doing for the rest of the year can he get to #1 in the system?

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  32. depending on how well he does at reading, i wonder if morgan will show up on any preseason 100 top prospects for next year.

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    1. Hopefully we’ll start hearing more scouting reports on Morgan now that he’s in AA. If those reports match the results, and the results stay this good, he’ll get those kinds of accolades.

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    2. theres a bit of prejudice to the early hyped prospects in those lists…. Morgan is legit. This kid could impact 2013 In July for the Phillies if they need a 5th starter.

      Im actually for trying to move Worley for a bat. Maybe Alex Gordon. I think we have the pitching depth to just fill the 4 spot with a veteran on a small short contract and put the best option at #5…. Pettibone, Cloyd, Kendrick, Rosenberg…….Morgan eventually.

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      1. I agree. Sell from their strength to improve the weakness. The Phillies can find a #4 pitcher much easier(and cheaper) than a good 3B or impact OF bat with a reasonable contract.

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  33. I Wish that worley could bring us a decent thirdbasemen, Don’t know if he can, we really need a updated scouting on morgan. I want to know his real velocity and what kind of secondary pitches he has. Wish I could get to reading to see his next start. the things that make me excited about a pitcher are hits per 9 innings, stikeouts per nine, and walks, and this kid so far has really nice numbers.

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    1. I watched the video of part of Morgan’s start. My ability to evaluate what he did from a “scouting” standpoint is limited because the camera angle in Trenton is offset (meaning you don’t get the normal centerfield shot that allows you to see velocity, command and pitch movement) and there were no radar gun readings posted on tv. That being said, he looked pretty good. His fastball seemed to have plenty of zip, he threw a nice curve ball and seemed to throw a pretty nasty cutter or change that appeared to break away from right-handed hitters. As a pitcher, he presents as a slightly smaller version of Cliff Lee. So far, so good.

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    2. roccom…. ‘the things that make me excited about a pitcher are hits per 9 innings, stikeouts per nine, and walks’ ……… you may mean WHIP, plus K/9.

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