General Discussion – Week of 8-6-2012

Weekly Discussion

Oh yeah, here’s a general discussion for everyone for the week. Sorry it’s late. Enjoy!

138 thoughts on “General Discussion – Week of 8-6-2012”

  1. David Mruphy tweets Polly may be out a lot longer with the lower back inflammation issues. Looks like the last two months of this year may be Placido’s last as a Phillie.

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    1. Thats a shame as a healthy Polanco could have netted us some more prospects. He was a very good player when healthy.

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  2. Brown in 2 hole again!!! Nice to see Charile recognizing that he is the best fit for the 2 hole on this team.

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      1. between him and utley the starter should not leave the 1st without throwing more than 10 pitches.

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            2. Jimmy will not like that one bit. If the Phillies get Bourne in the off-season, oh boy, look out!

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    2. Agreed. I wish they’d start getting him some time in center though although Mayberry’s been swinging a good bat.

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      1. If mayberry hits .320/.390/.550 will anyone care? (As in I think he’s religated to a bench role next year no matter what happens).

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        1. I certainly don’t but as long as he’s hot, Charlie’s not going to take him out.

          I didn’t think he was much more than a 4th/5th outfielder after his performance last year, so nothing’s really changed in how I evaluate him.

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        2. they certainly cant go into 2013 relying on John Mayberry for anything more than some sort of utility with a little pop on the bench. The team needs to add at least 1 outfielder through FA or trade this offseason. Bourn is good but Span might be a smarter play.

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    1. While the Reading staff is stacked with prospects, I think that it will take some time for the new guys to get acclimated. But am excited to see what they can do. All of a sudden we have some prospects at the upper levels. Cesar H might be able to help next year.

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  4. It’s nice to see Derrick Mitchell in the box score again (Cleawater Phillies). I hope he back 100%.

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  5. Dom’s been very impressive since his call-up. Man I hope he sticks for good now. His patience has been outstanding, we just need to see the power now and he could be a star.

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    1. I’m just waiting for him to start pulling the ball with power a little bit. But I agree, he’s been really good. Nice that he’s off to a hot start so his detractors put a sock in it for a little while.

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    2. he’s been very good. love his plate discipline and his arm in left field. he already has three walks against lefties, which is three more than mayberry has all year.

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    3. VERY encouraging signs from Brown. Still wish he was a little cleaner on the bases and the OF. At this point he’s gotta know better than that.

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    4. OBP of .393. 3 walks and only 1 strikeout. Outstanding! Showing a good arm. Charlie says that the power will come and I believe him. Anyway, more than power, these Phillies need a guy who sees pitches (4 per plate appearance, which would put him in the top 20 in the National League) and shows patience at the plate.

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  6. Some weeks ago a small discussion happened explaining how to properly view VSL “prospects”. I enjoyed the insight shared in that discussion, most notably that the DSL is a half-level below the GCL, while the VSL is a full level back, and is like an all-star high school league talent-wise. Also mentioned is the type of performance looked for in those leagues: 800+ ops for a 16-17 yr olds, 900+ ops for 18+. Actually I think those numbers were mentioned for DSL players; the level of competition in the VSL has been said to make it difficult to judge those players.

    Nonetheless, I began thinking: a H.S. player putting up a .350+ BA and and OPS north of 900 in an all-star league: what kind of notice would he command? Now, the player on the VSL Phillies who was putting up these gaudy numbers is going to be 20 y/o soon (Deiber Olivera), and his OPS has “cooled” to .869. Being a little old, what happens to a player like that? If the Phillies were to give him a further look, is the next step the VSL or GCL? If he put up similar numbers next year (now about to turn 21), is he given a shot? I appreciative the insight provided.

    On a relationship note, thank you to all who make this site work, with your intelligent, thoughtful, but most importantly POSITIVE conversation. Despite the opinion that the Phillies farm system is not that good, I am excited. PP is an oasis of positive energy in a lackluster (to put it mildly) Phillies universe. I do not forsee the phuture as being so dark (I lost the link, but The Creator made a wonderful blog post on this subject earlier this year), and whether or not most of you share my optimism, thank-you for giving me somewhere ‘to rest’ before dealing with the negativity!

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    3. Glad to see you posting here and a well thought out post. Please post more!

      I remember that post well because I was the one who didn’t understand how to evaluate the VSL/DSL, so I might not be the best choice to answer your questions… That said, being 20, I have a hold on the kid. He’s really 3 levels behind. It’d be like a 23 year old in williamsport. Nice that he’s doing well, not really “killing it” but something to watch from afar. He needs to get double jumped in order for him to be relivant atleast once, maybe twice on his way up in order for me to consider him a true prospect. If he’s a prospect from a scouting perspective, and his english is “passable” I move him to GCL/WPT next year, and hope to see him finish the year in WPT/Lakewood. That’s a lot of if’s at this point though.

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    4. I believe the poster was AndyB. He’s our resident fountain of knowledge on the Latin America guys. They usually take a few guys from the DSL/VSL and give them a shot in EST in the States. They look for guys who have promise. They get them state-side and see if there’s any projection in them. Hiciano looks like a young guy who hit well early and is tailing off. He hits in the 3 hole so there might be potential there. Herlis Rodriguez did the same thing last year and he’s playing in the GCL now. Big time LA prospects go straight to EST and usually play in GCL or Williamsport quickly. Tocci & Santana are guys that met that criteria.

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      1. Not being an expert, but having an opinion, i would say Olivera would have to kill WP next year and then get jumped to CLW to even have a shot at prospectness. .

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  7. Kevin Brady needs to get some attention. In Williamsport he’s pitched 18.2 IP, 0.48 ERA, 26K, 1BB, started 4 games.

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    2. +1… I mentioned this in Daily… He’s looked dominant and I’ve got no problem with bumping him up now. He’s a college starter so having him move quickly is perfectly fine.

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  8. Is Ryan Duke a prospect? He’s played at five levels since he was drafted last year and he’s strikes guys out, but James labeled him a one star prospect when recapping last year’s draft. Anyone know what his stuff is like?

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  9. I know there has been some discussion on the blanton prospect tbnl but has there been any update or additional speculation? I heard Anatomy interviewed and he stated that they only pulled the trigger because “we really like the player we got.”. Sounded like they had already agreed. I know there is a rule about trading last year’s draftees. When can they be traded officially? What happens if they are hurt after waiver deal and before announcement? Seems funny that the guy has been traded,but still in other org.

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  10. In the offseason , i believe we get stutes back for bullpen, move in de fraus, with bastardo,paplebon,and another guy like diekman or swimmer or herdon. and we can hopefully have better results, my question is knowing we need thirdbasemen, and two outfielders, do you sign a thirdbasemen for three years at big money, knowing asche has a shot to help at miminium wage, and go after on big time righthanded bat, and one lesser right hand bat to platoon,or say take headley and worry about ache later. to me its a tough question for amaro

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  11. Does anyone know yet who the Phillies got in return for Joe Blanton? I believe that the Phil’s were getting a minor leaguer in the trade.

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  12. Anybody have any ideas on 3rd base for next year?? I know Chase Headley’s name comes up a lot but you will definitely have to give up some value for him. Although Gyorko’s ridiculous numbers at AAA might force SD’s hand. Any other options? Figure guys like Beltre and Aramis Ramirez will be available but you will have to eat a ton of money.

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    1. They need their assets to bring in outfielders. Rollins can play third and bat seventh and Galvis can play shortstop, or vice versa.

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      2. Its much easier to find a RH platoon bat for the OF (Reed Johnson, Scott Hairston) than it is to find a 3B. I’d much rather use the assets we have to improve 3B, and not downgrade our team by having Galvis in our lineup.

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  13. Top Prospects by position…what do you think 1b Dugan 2b Hernandez ss Galvis 3b Franco Lf Greene cf Tocci rf Cozens c Joseph sp Biddle rp Defratus

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    1. I’d go Ruf, Hernandez, Quinn, Franco, Castro, Tocci, Collier, Valle, May, DeFratus. I am not sure Galvis is a prospect anymore. May has higher upside. Valle is a better receiver. Ruf is more of a first baseman than anyone in the system and his first base numbers are more appropriate than Dugan’s for that position. Always an interesting exercise. Thanks.

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      1. Tocci is a tough one, I’m looking fwd to that top 30 debate this offseason for sure…. He’s so young but the potential is sky high.

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  14. Cholly that’s my point. Do you sign or take on big contracts for three years,or look for one year fillin, and hope asche is ready. I really want a big time right handed bat for the outfield, a power hitter, not bourn, I really think the bullpen will be better with some of the guys we get back.

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    1. I second this, we could really use a .280/.360/.500 30 HR player right now. Unfort. pence was that player and had an off year, at a high price (15 mil) and horrible defense.

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  15. 3B-
    I figure Beltran will not be unloaded by Texas, just because they have Olt now. They can move guys to OF, 1B, DH, and who better to keep than a valuable 3B. They can also move players like Michael Young or whoever, first . Texas is loaded with cash from big TV deal. No need to pinch pennies.
    Aramis Ramirez, if they didn’t want him for the contract , why did they sign him. And they ought to keep a few players, it is not like they will have an enormous payroll otherwise.

    trade for Headley. maybe a good bet. I don’t know they want to start off with a Catcher, as they have Yasmani Grandal coming along. Maybe they like a 3B coming along, so they add Asche to supplement Gyorko in short time. Maybe an OF also. So, I say they take one, two, or three of those options, plus 3 of the 4 top starting pitching prospects. Maybe , if they take all 3 they will accept 2 of the top starting pitching prospects. So , that is 5 players for Headley plus a relief option from their younger players. But, Headley is about the age of Pence, and maybe not the long term fix-all as might be supposed. And you don’t know how SD’s new ownership group will act.

    Free Agents- MLBTR has a list of available players:
    I omitted David Wright because his option is likely to be picked up.
    And there may be an option to convert a player from another position. like Steven Drew, SS. Has option, wouldn’t do that.

    Which of these guys would you like to break the bank on?

    Miguel Tejada, 39
    Miguel Cairo , 39
    Geoff Blum , 39
    Mark DeRosa, 38
    Scott Rolen, 38
    Placido Polanco, 37
    Brandon Inge, 36
    Eric Chavez, 35
    Ty Wigginton, 35
    Kevin Youkilis, 34
    Maicer Izturis, 32
    Mark Teahen, 31
    Jose Lopez, 29
    Mark Reynolds, 29 (has an option for 11 million which may be picked up)

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    2. You didn’t list the Philly ballgirl who made that great play a week or so ago. I think she’ll sign cheaply.

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    3. A Headley trade would be unnecessarily costly – think Hunter Pence. They should improve elsewhere and keep the position warm for a year while they assess their options and see if Asche can play. I expect Asche to continue to improve rapidly, both at the plate and in the field. His work ethic is, apparently, Utley-like – I’ve heard this from at least a few sources.

      They do need to improve the outfield and will need help at the top of the line-up. Unfortunately, I expect them to significantly overpay and overextend for Michael Bourn (think 5 years and $70 million – I’m not kidding) – patience and financial discipline are not among Ruben’s strengths. Another veteran contract that will weigh-down the payroll and look horrible after year 2 or 3.

      As Larry astutely pointed out – the team at least knows the right pitchers to focus on (whether they pay too much is another issue), but with hitters, well, not so much.

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        1. According to what I’ve read, no … but who knows? Upton’s under 30, athletic, and plays a premium defensive position. Somebody will throw money at that and hope a change of scenery is all he needs. Personally, I’d rather the Phils gamble on someone like Upton than on Bourn, whose season reminds me of Rowand’s in 2007.

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      2. One problem with Bourne is that he is another left-handed bat. Realistically, adding Bourne and starting Brown along with Utley and Howard would result in at least four left-handed bats, probably all batting at the top of the lineup.. This could be partly balanced by a couple of strong right-handed bats in the outfield and at 3rd base, but i don’t see who those would be at this point.

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      3. BJ Upton is a chronic underachiever. The free agent record for guys like that is not good. If Upon comes to Philadelphia the fans will carve him up alive within a matter of months. If you sign Bourn, you may overpay, but I think he’ll at least play well and he certainly will get every drop of performance from his talent.

        If they are going to go for underachieving talent, they should trade Mayberry and perhaps one of their second tier minor league starters to San Diego for Cameron Maybin. Maybin is having a bad year, but he oozes with talent and he is under team control for another 4 years at a very reasonable price. He is a 1 WAR player based on his defense alone, so he’s a good gamble. If and when he hits, he becomes almost an immediate all-star because he has such good speed and other tools.

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    4. I wouldn’t break the bank, but if LAA lets Maicer Izturis go he could plug the hole for a few years.

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  16. Howard with a 37.5% K rate on the year so far. Hey, at least he’s only owed another $105M after this season.

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    1. I was watching a baseball show the other day. It was a bunch of Red Sox sports writers and an analyst. One of the sports writers was hammering Adrian Gonzalez as huge contract no production. He said he’d flip Gonzo for Howard, even with the way Howard is playing this year. I’d take that. The analyst took exception but conceded that this was a bad year for Adrian.

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    2. Maybe you missed the his two run homer that accounted for 67% of the Phillies scoring in a 3-0 victory.

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      1. I really don’t know how any sane person can defend howard anymore. Starting with the ’09 WS he has continually regressed. That contract is a complete joke.

        His throw to second the other night was legendary. He’s too fat, has no range, and can’t throw.

        Other than that he’s awesome.

        As for a CF option…I wouldn’t mind seeing them sign angel pagan on the cheap. Upton, Hamilton, Victorino, and Bourn (no ‘e’ on the end, he’s not a fictional spy) hitting the market should make pagan an affordable option.

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        1. We have all seen how the Phillies played without Howard this year. Their record speaks for itself. As far as the error the other night, the ball obviously slipped out of his hand on the throw. It had nothing to do with his contract. I agree that he is not yet in baseball shape, but that is a result of his injury that impeded his exercise program. He probably shouldn’t have come back this season, but the Phillies were desperate, as they were atrocious without him. As out of shape as he is and as much as he has struck out they are still 13-12 in games that he has played.

          As far as the CF option is concerned, considering what they say Bourn earn next year, he should add an ‘e’ to his name, as he will have to be superhuman to earn it!

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          1. So the phils struggles this year are all due to howard’s absence. Right.

            You should get a clue. They actually had better production out of the 4 hole this year than they did last year…even though they were running out a pu pu platter at first base.

            ryan howard is the most overrated player of his generation. anyone that watches him daily should find this blatantly obvious.

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            1. I won’t stoop to your level with personal attacks. The absence of Howard is the main difference from last year when they won 102 games with “the most overrated player of his generation” playing in 99 of them. They had plenty of injuries last year including Utley being out for a couple of months. The difference was Howard. As for what you wrote below, the batting average is not the point with Howard; it is the run production and the effect on the entire lineup. I suppose that your bias against Howard stems from the money he makes, but I think that even you would admit that it is unfair to judge him on his production so far this season, given the circumstances of his injury; if he came back when he did but was 100% healthy and had enough time to get ready, I think the Phillies would be pretty close to .500 by now and in contention for the wild card.

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          2. also, I’m sure howards 200 average (or 700 OPS) is the reason why the team has a winning record since the big pear returned to the lineup.

            the pro-howard crowd is funny. dude hasn’t been good in almost 4 years, yet they defend him like it’s still 2007

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            1. Next spring/season year will be a different year, he will be in better shape and will be ready to go from day one.

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            2. Howard is vastly overpaid and his contract is ridiculous. But not good? That’s just hyperbole. Last year Howard was 5th in the NL in OPS+, and two of the first basemen above him left the league. This year it is obvious that Howard is still hurt and that’s certainly hurting his production.

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            3. Well first of all, he was “good” last year, I’ll give him that much. We’ll see how much of this year’s apparent decline is real and how much of it is SSS and injury related. If a substantial portion of it is real, then no, he isn’t even good any more. (In terms of the injury, it is one which certainly can take a long term toll, so that he may never recover his pre-injury level of play. Of course at the same time we have normal decline as he gets older; it’s hard to seperate the two, but if he gets back even to his level of play in 2011 I’d be pleasantly surprised.)

              But to quibble a little even about last year, that’s 5th among 11 qualifying NL firstbasemen, I’d say that’s more an indication of decline than an endorsement. And to be clear, the top 4 stand out well above the other seven; Howard is closer to number 9 than to number 4. Add in the missed games, defense, and base running, and Howard was arguably the 9th best NL first baseman overall last year. Meh.

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  17. In the laugh out loud column for today – the WIP gang are apparently conducting a poll among listeners about whether it is time to give up on Domonic Brown. Are you kidding? Yeah, he’s 24, fast as the wind, has a great arm, amazing plate discipline, everything he hits is a line drive and he has power in that body – exactly the kind of guy you want to give up on. Unreal.

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    1. Patience is not the WIP listener’s strong suit. They’ll forgive all when he’s an XBH machine this time next year.

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      1. Thanks. I listen to them (97.5 FM) in the afternoon when they go local. As bad as WIP can be, it’s better than hearing Mike Greenberg whine about developments at New York Jets training camp in the morning or have Mike Golic complain about the Philadelphia fans.

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    3. What a joke. Does he have to cure cancer before he gets any respect? There is no rational reason to hate what he’s done since being called up so far.

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        1. Don’t mind the mid-day guys……….Angelo and the morning crew tho have veered more into the shock jock territory than actual intelligent sports talk. Not a surprise, he seems to revel in his status as leader of the irrational Philly fan.

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          1. Just the one guy on the Morning Show, and you named him…the rest just ‘meh’ when he rants.

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  18. Was justing reading MLB trade rumors. Knapp got released today, and the other news is, and I dont believe this. That braves,phillies.nationals want bourn, that i believe, and he will command 16 to 22 year.now thats a joke.

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    1. I wouldn’t mind seeing Bourn come back to Philly, but that’s a ridiculous price tag for him. I would rather the Phillies trade for Justin Upton and spend money on him as I think Upton would hit better at CBP with more lineup protection on the Phillies.

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      1. Unlike his brother (a near bust, in my view), Justin Upton would probably be worth almost any price you would pay for him given his talent and his reasonable salary over the next several years. If you go back and look at great power hitters, many teeter back and forth in the early twenties with a mediocre year followed by a break out year after which they never look back. Take a look at Barry Bonds and Matt Kemp – this is exactly what happened with them. After this disappointing season, I would bet big time on Upton having a season like that next year or the year after. He is a huge breakout candidate and he’s got talent to burn. I would serve up a couple of our young pitching prospects and one of our catching prospects (but not Dom Brown – that would defeat the purposes – the point would be to have both of those guys in your lineup) to get him. It would be well worth the cost.

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  19. JASON KNAPP RELEASED

    From MLB Trade Rumors:

    •The Indians announced that they released right-hander Jason Knapp (Twitter link). Knapp was a key part of the 2009 trade that sent Cliff Lee to the Phillies, but injuries have sidelined him, and he hasn’t pitched since 2010. The 21-year-old had a 3.63 ERA with 12.0 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in three professional seasons from 2008-10.

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  21. I’m sorry, but anyone who believes that Howard is over-rated is out of their minds. I’m not saying he’s the best player in the MLB, but he’s a game-changer and impacts this lineup tremendously.

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    1. he’s overpaid at this point, but he was underpaid the first five years or so, so it probably evens out. i don’t think he’s that overrated, either, even if his recent postseasons have been poor.

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      1. Don’t be too sure about that. I think Butt head Bud wants it to happen. He’s moving the Houston team to the AL. That will make 15 teams in each league. This will force the schedule to include at least 1 interleague game all season long. With more interleague games, the talks about “imbalance” will start b/c AL teams have more offense since they include a big bopper DH on their bench. The players union would love to see an NL DH b/c it would add another 15 mil / yr player to more rosters.

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        1. I agree that the DH is coming to all of baseball sooner or later as they continue to blur the lines between the AL/NL. The schedule change is just the next step.

          Don’t think that Bud is particularly for the idea but the support for the idea around the game seems to be growing.

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        2. The biggest reason the DH will be in both leagues within the next couple of years is due to 2 contracts Pujols and Fielder. NL teams are at a decisive disadvantage when it comes to retaining star position players. And this is due to the length of contracts not the AAV. Pujols’ contract was ridiculous due to the extra 2 years. Same with Fielder, I know he is younger but being that he is about to turn 30 and by far the most out of shape baseball player since his dad any season over 33 is a huge risk he breaks down. Back to the point, can you blame NL teams for wanting to change over so they can keep their own players. The real shame is that it is not even a thought to get rid of the DH, but what are you going to do.

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    3. Even if you chalk this year up to injury recovery and small sample size, he was 9th in OPS amongst first basemen in 2011 and 2010. He’s poor defensively and one of the worst baserunners in the league. He’s, at best, slightly above average for the position and he’s a heavy 32 year old who’s going to age fast. Only the ridiculous deal paying ARod $20M+ until he’s 42 keeps him from having the worst contract in baseball.

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  23. I am getting very nervous with this michael bourn talk. I like bourn but he isnt the answer,first of all no way atlanta would pay 16 million for him. washington would. i believe go a little high,and the phillies scare me. If amaro goes after him at those big numbers, That would really kill this team. hope its just the dumb writers needing a story to write.

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      1. Thank goodness he is not the GM and David Murphy is not a professional writer. Good columnists can write a piece like his raising questions without throwing in negative character references as he does (comaparing the Phillies to the Philadelphia School District and others).

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        1. Yeah, that was a bit of a misstatement. I did not mean to credit David Murphy – he’s nothing special. My only point was that I fear that Amaro really might overpay for Bourn.

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          1. I don’t get that feeling unless a LH bat is traded this winter to make room for Bourne. I do agree with you that Michael Bourne is not worth 20 million per year as we have to sign some quality relievers to stabilize the “path to Pabelbon” and other holes.

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  25. Okay, Howard again. Probably won’t change minds; time will do that, very quickly if this year’s decline proves to be real, less quickly if he follows a more “normal” decline path.

    First let’s start by setting the terms of the debate. The metrics say he was very good through 2009, but not quite as good as his reputation. They say he declined to a solid regular in 2010 to 2011, maybe a little bit more in 2011 if you don’t penalize him for missed games and credit him for situational hitting – 2011 was the only time his performance justified his repuatation as a clutch hitter. This year so far, an awful, below replacement level player, granted in a SSS and recovering from an injury.

    The conventional wisdom, as I understand it, doesn’t deny the trajectory, but just sees him as more valuable all along, even if declining a bit, and isn’t worried – or too worried – about his performance this year.

    Unfortunately, his defenders tend mostly (not exclusively) to even make meaningful arguments, resorting to cliches like “anchoring the lineup.” He critics sometimes make their own erros, which I hopefully will avoid. But where is the nexus of the dispute? Even his defenders will admit that his defense and base running have gone from slightly below par to quite bad. Some people argue that the positional adjustments made by the statistical metrics are flawed. They may not phrase it that way, but that’s the argument. It’s wrong IMO, but an argument that merits a response, which, time permitting, I will make later.

    But really the debate mostly comes down to his hitting. For some perspective here on why us critics are so sure we are right, on this and many other disputes, realize this: hitting is the one area where, at least looking backward (i.e., not making predictions of future performance), modern statistical analysis has done an extraordinarily good job in calulating the value of player performances. And it is here where we run into a brick wall, in terms of persuasion: the data supporting this conclusion is vast, but not easily summarized, partly because there is so much of it. Meaning that, for those who refuse to LOOK at the data, or don’t have the mathematical aptitude to understand it, persuasion is impossible.

    All of which is maybe a reason to keep trying. But it would be nice if Howard’s defensers would at least take the time to make an actual argument, as opposed to using cliches. On the subject of hitting, the only really coherent argument is that he has “clutch” ability not relflected in the metrics. The problem is, that just isn’t true. I will not exhaustively look at the data, given my already long post, but in the next comment will give a snapshot.

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    2. Two points:

      1. many of us thought that 2011 would be a lost season for Howard. 2012 should not be used to evaluate his career path; and
      2. Howard’s slash line with RISP should be better because opposing teams don’t use the shift against him with RISP.

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      2. (1) Look, I hope I am wrong about this, but here’s where I’m coming from: even if he recovers fully from his injury, and even if he suffers a normal aging curve, as opposed to the accellerated aging curve which his body type indicates, he’s still going to be 2 years older in 2013 than he was in 2011. 2011 plus a normal aging curve … ugh. And while he COULD do better than that, IMO he is more likely to do worse.

        (2) It is a little better, just not much better, and not enough better to signficantly shift his evaluation.

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  26. And here it is:

    Ryan Howard

    RISP .281/.413/.561
    Overall .274/.367/.557

    Ah, ha, some might say; look at that OBP! Except that it is the result of 132 IBB. Take those away, and we are looking at an OBP with RISP of .358.

    Even so, his numbers with RISP are a tiny bit better than is overall numbers. Reflecting almost precisesly the edge that the average player has in those circumstances. He’s not particularly “clutch,” and that issue is not open to serious debate.

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    1. Well I guess i will try to list the problems with the anti Howard debate, and try to clarify a pro Howard position(respectfully as you and i have not gone back and forth previously so no preconceived notions). Just to clarify i am arguing against the notion that Howard is a replacement level player, obviously he is not the player he was before and with the Achilles injury it is likely he may never get back to a good player.

      Problems with the anti Howard debate:
      1.) the quick dismissal of RBIs – i understand the most modern statistic people feel the RBI has gone the way of a W for a pitcher, and that Howard has had more chances that anyone, but when i look up the data over the last 5 years he has been in the top 3 once as far as ABs with runners in scoring position. Howard bats in the 4 hole and is asked to drive in runs to just ignore this is unfair. It is not like we are supporting the 4th or 5th best player over his career (prior 2012) at driving in runs he was 1.

      2.)Fielding and Speed – First off i was never part of his game, but to his credit even after receiving awards (ROY, MVP) he put in the work to shed the extra pounds and work in the off season to improve. And I am not saying he is a great fielder but he has been an improved fielder. Admittedly i do not pay attention to fielding metrics. I am neither for or against them just never had an interest in them as we can all look at a fielder and see if he is poor, bad, adequate, good, or great.

      3.)Contract – I agree that with hindsight RAJ overpaid and may not have had too, but it is not an huge over payment. And at the time the projection of numbers for hitters had this deal at worst market value. Point being a few players thought to be available were not (Gonzalez, Votto) and Fielder and Pujols both received just as ridiculous contracts when taking length into context. Also I am trying to figure out the one player not signed by the Phillies due to Howards contract? Conclusion It is a valid point that has no bearing on this argument since the Phillies have proven they can afford many $20+ million dollar players so the contract is not an albatross around the teams neck.

      Just to clarify the clutch argument from the pro Howard crowd. When you look at his career splits per month his triple slash get better as the season move on peaking in SEPT/OCT. So when the games matter the most he plays at his best.

      Also isn’t it a little cheap to dismiss IBB in clutch situations just to lower his OBP. It is an admission from the opposing team they do not want to pitch to you, and to me there is no greater evidence of being good in that situation than not even getting pitched to?

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      1. Short answers, don’t have time for more at the moment:

        (1) His RBIs are a result of his opportunities plus his power. Yes, he gets more RBIs than a guy with less power would get in his shoes, but that’s because of his power, which he already gets credit for. Giving him extra credit for the RBIs is basically double counting.

        (2) There was IMO a short term positive bump in fielding when he lost a little weight, but that dissipated quickly. My own subjective observations and many others agree with the metrics on that. Moreover, the metrics (which btw show him a bad but not yet horrible fielder at least not before the recent injury) are following the predictable aging path of a guy his size. I can’t recall anyone ever really defending him as a base runner.

        (3) Sorry, your worst argument. The simple fact is that the luxury tax threshold has acted as a de facto cap for the Phillies, and, possibly excepting next year, will doso in the future, probably to a greater extent than in the past because of increased penalties for going over. Of course one can’t identify specific players not signed, that’s an impossible and unreasonable burden to expect critics to meet, but it’s clear that the team has a willingness to hit the “cap” but not go over, so obviously the contract will mean other players not being signed. Next year, especially, the Phillies have several needs and limited financial ability to fill them. Would they be better off with an extra 25 million dollars next year (and more down, even if that meant also having a hole at first base? Yes. And the fact that other first basemen also got bad contracts (IMO not nearly as bad as Howard’s) doesn’t make his contract any better

        Late season performance – “Clutch” – games count the same in May as September. I don’t give him much of any credit for this.

        IBB – again in a sense double counting in the sense that team’s fear him because of his power. But more to the point, whatever “credit” you want to give him for these (and I wouldn’t deduct them from his overall metrics), it doesn’t make him “clutch.” When given an opportunity to hit (i.e., no IBB, he hits about what you would expect in such situations.

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        1. Thanks Larry this is one of the reasons i love this site. Again i would like to state that Howard is far from the player he was at the beginning of his career just not as bad as what some people make him out to be,to be fair you are not one of the people making him out to be bad, and there are a lot of questions because of this injury moving forward. I think it is pretty obvious that we have major philosophical differences about the game. The most glaring is our view on power and how it reflects in the stats. I may be a little more old school when it comes to my view of a lineup and it construction, but to me the 4 hole is asked to drive in the runners that get on in front of him and he does it real well be it by HR or another hit. I am also a firm believer in the mental aspect of the game like approaches at the plate change depending on where you bat in the lineup and even though they statistically have the same relevance games in April do not have the same level of importance as games at the end of the year. And i agree i used a cheap ploy with asking to list the player they have yet to sign, but they have added 2 $20+ mil contracts after his and I believe this off season will actually show how worried they are about the luxury cap. If they are making another push they have to go over in 2013 especially with the salaries coming off after next year to get them back under. If they are more worried about the cap you will see lesser players in the OF so they stay under.

          Again thanks for the discourse and I appreciate the time you take to initiate discussion around here. I know how difficult it is to have time to write well thought out arguments.

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          1. I think we do disagree about line up construction (as well as some other things). Without exploring that deeply (though there have been lineup simulations which support my point of view), part of the problem with Howard is that his power has suffered in the past couple of years. He was 12th in HRs from 2010 to 2011, not bad certainly but not up to his standards and IMO not worth anywhere near 125 million when you are a first baseman and HRs represent most of your value. AND considering that it is quite questionable whether he will hit even that well going forward.

            But let me ask you this – how much extra value do you think we should assign for that lineup value? It is going to have be a heck of a lot to come anywhere near justifying that contract.

            They’ll likely go over the cap in 2013. They won’t go over it 2 years in a row – even the Yankess won’t – because of the penalties. But aside from that, what I am afraid of (while acknowleding that it is not certain, and hoping it doesn’t happen) is that they will end up handicapping themselves by sticking with a well below average player at first base for the next 4 plus years. Yes, he was better than that in 2011, but, even assuming further recovery from his injury … well, let’s just say i am not optimistic going forward. Even apart from normal aging effects, his K % is just alamingly bad so far this year. Is that a result of the injury, and something that will get better as he fully recovers? Maybe. Phillies fans better hope so, because if not we’re looking at Mo Vaughn revisited.

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    2. “Reflecting almost precisesly the edge that the average player has in those circumstances.”

      Just curious, where did you find the data for that?

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      1. Baseball reference.com. Actually, that statement was based upon memory; while the typical player DOES hit better with RISP, even taking the IBB away Howard is a tiny bit better than average in those situations (compared to his overall numbers). But it’s the kind of advantage that might be worth a couple runs a year at best – not signficant in terms of his overall evaluation. (I think the 2011 numbers gave him a signficant boost here – before then, one could accurately say that he had zero advantage with RISP, not jsut zero meaningful advantage.) A point to keep in mind is that his career BA with RISP is an underwelming .281 – and it’s BA that really matters in that situation, since generally even a single till score runners from second and of course third.

        People used to concede that Howard was well behind Pujols, but at or near the top of the rest of major league first basemen. That has never really been true except for his MVP year, and is less so now, but focusing specifically on the clutch/RBI issue, there are a ton of first basemen who have been better with RISP than Howard – the idea that he is better than (say) Fielder (whose BA with RISP is .288) because of his RBI totals is silly – he’s had more opportuntities, that’s all. (You can do the exercise with a lot of other first basemen who have an even bigger advantage over Howard.)

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        1. Well, since you brought up Fielder, I figured I’d compare the two because I think something doesn’t add up in your final outcome. Fielder does have a higher batting average than Howard with RISP, however, it’s only .003 points away from his batting average with no one on. Howard’s BA with RISP is .019 points higher. And I don’t quite buy the point that BA is all that matters, because a double or HR is still better than a single no matter what. If you look at men on base, and not just RISP, Howard looks even more like the superior hitter because of the difference in slugging. With just a man on first base, obviously you can’t just knock the runner in with a single.

          So the point is, for Fielder, he’s actually at his best statistically when there’s no one on base. The opposite is true for Howard. Maybe Fielder’s just not a good illustration of your point, and is actually an oddity in that he’s not better with men on.

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  27. Every year the Phillies choose the best MilB position and pitching player to receive the Paul Owens Award. IMO, it appears Ruf (pos) and Cloyd or Pettibone (pitcher) may be the best candidates for 2012.

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  28. Matt Gelb on JRoll:
    ‘Rollins has hit a fly ball on the INFIELD 31 times in 2012. (Atlanta’s Dan Uggla is second in the league with 21.) That equated to 20.1 percent of his batted balls entering Wednesday that ended as pop-outs. His career average is 11.2 percent. The 20.1 percent clip is also highest in the majors among qualified hitters’. “That’s just one of those things,” Manuel said. “That’s just one of those years.”
    Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20120809_Phillies_Notes__Rollins_popping_out_at_a_high_rate.html#ixzz23BEnVhFt

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    1. I know I’m late to this party, but the number is just plain wrong. Using JRoll’s numbers and assuming 31 is the correct number, it comes out to a staggering 11.3% of his batted OUTS ending in a pop out. Simple math says there is no way this number is right, but then why let the facts get in the way of a good story.

      He has 453 at bats to this point and 31/453 is 6.8%
      He has 111 hits and 68 strikeouts, so subtracted from 453 you get 274, or 11.3%, which is apparently his career average. Although anything in that story is questionable.

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  29. One note I’d like to make about this Phillies team. Last year the Phillies ranked 7th in runs scored, this year they’re 11th. They were 1st in least runs allowed, this year they’re 10th. For as much as we blame the offense, the collapse of the pitching staff is why they became terrible so quickly. Except for Cole Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon, just about everything has gone wrong there this season.

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  30. Went to the game tonight, just some notes on some “prospects” on the major league roster:

    Dominic Brown
    – Had a great first AB working a walk after being down 0-2, next two ABs flailed early into some easy grounders, last AB took a pitch solidly the other way
    – He looks comfortable in the OF the only ball he missed was against the wall and would have been a highlight catch
    – His arm is a cannon but there are some definite accuracy issues right now

    BJ Rosenberg
    – Sat 93-95 touch 96, let a pitch get away and hit Molina, seemed a little off after that and couldn’t get it in the zone

    Michael Schwimmer
    – Looked good on the mound in terms of presence and confidence (I think it is important for relievers especially to look in control and poised)
    – Was 92-94 touched 95, let one get away as well that hit Jay, the wild pitch looked like a slider that bounced but Craig took an ugly hack at
    – The thing that was most impressive was his ability to throw strike when needed, went full with Holiday and just went right at him and threw one past him, earlier in the year that would have been something out of the zone for a walk

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  31. A Sunday time-killer: Which team would you rather have in Phillies’ uniforms five years from now? Current prospects, or those traded away since 2009? Here’s my guess as to what each team would look like: (I’m including Dom Brown as Phils prospects, since several of those traded have lost prospect status as well):

    The Departed:
    Gose, CF
    Villar, SS
    Singleton, 1B
    D’Arnaud, C
    Santana, RF
    Taylor, LF
    Donald, 2B
    Marson, 3B
    Cosart, Drabek, Carrasco SP

    The Survivors:

    Quinn, SS
    Hernandez, 2B
    Brown, RF
    Greene, Jr. 1B
    Franco, 3B
    Joseph, C
    Cozens, LF
    Tocci, CF
    Biddle, May, Morgan SP

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    1. The Current prospects would make for a better pitching staff the old ones would probably be the better lineup. However, it’s still way too early to judge our current crop of position prospects. The old crop probably has a better chance of turning out better due to more sustained success in the minors.

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      1. Joseph < D'Arnault
        LG Donald
        Franco > Marson (not really a 3b, but understood)
        Quinn > Villar
        Cozens = Taylor
        Tocci Santana

        Survivors SP > Departed SP

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    3. If two of Tocci, Quinn, LGJ and Cozens reach their potential, I’d have to side with the Survivors. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending upon how you look at it), so much of the Phils’ position talent is in that rookie league limbo that could see them go either way.

      I desperately tried to find a spot for Asche on the team, as he’s one of my favorite guys in the system. He’s my safe bet for LF, assuming Franco continues his development.

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  32. A few notes on Sunday’s game. Poor defense(Utley looks throughly average at best. Bad baserrunning until JR woke up in the last inning. Pierre finished an awful game with a GREAT finish.
    BTW I now understand why the kids love the new style baseball because it is the only place that tells them to MAKE NOISE.

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