Dugan and Franco with back-to-back jacks for Lakewood, while Asche and Ruf also go deep. And a very efficient outing from Perci Garner – 2 hits, 0 BB, and faced just one over the minimum in 5 scoreless IP.
The Reading game was encouraging as Colvin really settled down after the wild 1st and 2nd innings.. Asche and Ruff continue to impress — and Ruff deserves a shot with the big club…
Aumont blew a chance for LV to gain at least a portion of 1st place..hE was so wild giving up 3 BB ,2 hits , 2 wp and 2 runs to have Paw tie the gm in bot 9th
Jake D.. Gave up the winning run to Paw w/o even giving up a hit.. 3 BB..
I like Ruf as much as the next guy, but why do folks assume that, just because he can hit in Reading, it means that he should go right to Philadelphia? A LOT of older prospects who do well in Reading never make it to the big leagues and many do not even do well in Lehigh Valley. For example, both Overbeck and Rizzotti were either bad or mediocre in AAA. Now, while I think Ruf is quite a bit better than both of those prospects, to me, given his age and profile, I need to see what he does in AAA before I get too excited about him.
Agreed – but given how Overbeck has been doing, not sure why they havent flip flopped them…. or at least let Ruf play LF. Whos he gonna block? Spidale? Now that Dom Brown in up, move Ruf to AAA. Im kinda tired of some of the placeholders they keep in LV.
Well, given the fact they just signed Jake Fox who plays Catcher, and all corners. A Ruf callup isn’t happening just yet. Maybe they know something we don’t
I get he’s old, but is their really anything to lose by giving him more of a chance this year? This is the first season in awhile that is more or less lost, so why not check on a guy like Ruf?
I’d like to see how he does this year in the AFL as well. Hopefully much better than last year. Last year he hit .239/.363/.388 in 80 PA’s. Overbeck hit .321/.427/.457 in 96 PA’s. The league average for everybody in AFL last year was .286/.356/.453. Granted those are small sample sizes for Ruf and Overbeck, but Ruf surely didn’t do anything to suggest he would survive in the majors.
Yeah, I’d like him to play in AAA . To see what he can do. Maybe he’ll perform as well as Cloyd … and then what ? He’ll just be older. 🙂 And still there.
I’m not a huge “Ruf is a top prospect” guy, but given the phillies pointless remainder of the year, call his ass up, sink or swim. One way or another we’ll get something good out of it. Either A, he proves he can mash and play LF at the MLB level, or B He sucks, and his hitting/defense cause the phillies to lose more games – HIGHER DRAFT PICK!
I agree with you, but the point of doing this isn’t to “tank” persay. It’s an attempt at fielding the best possible team next year. And that, as fans, we can all agree should be our primary goal at this point. I am one of those paying 40,000 fans, and I want to see the future, becuase this year should be forgotten.
Michael Martinez might possibly be the most frustrating baseball player ever. He is actually very fast and plays good infield defense, and if he tried, he could make good contact. He could actually be a Juan Pierre type offensive player if he wanted to be, but I think he looks in the mirror and sees Ryan Howard’s body. Cannot stand him or his approach, just absolutely terrible.
When a tough lefty comes up, bench Schierholtz, start Brown in right, and Ruf in left.
When a tough righty comes up, bench Mayberry, Brown in center, Shierholtz in right, (or the other way around if Shierholtz is better in center then Brown) and Ruf in left.
Between those 4 with Shierholtz and Mayberry in semi-platooning role, and assuming 270 (5 AB’s per game over 54 games) AB’s remaining per position over the rest of the year, you should be able to get Ruf about 175 ABs, Brown the full 270, and Schierholtz/Mayberry 182 a piece.
Just to clarify, I fully believe brown is hands down the better prospect and should get every at bat available for the rest of the year. The real question is do the phillies view either Schierholtz or Mayberry as a starter next year, if the answer is yes, then that would cut down significantly on the number of AB’s Ruf can play if called up.
And btw 3up, in my above scenario, the phillies would be maximising the Mayberry and Schierholtz given their splits… so as I said, not a complete tanking attitude. I don’t believe in tanking any more then you, but I also don’t believe in wasting the opportunity that we have for the remainder of the year. (The opportunity to let players who are fringe, sink or swim.) In some ways, if ruf were to come up and get his 170 AB’s and crush it, It would probably cause the phillies all kinds of planning problems. You’d have a player who you didn’t think was going to excel do just that, but in a semi small sample size. (We had a similiar issue with Mayberry going into the year, and that didn’t work out very well at all).
I just don’t see the Phillies promoting an older, marginally athletic prospect two levels AND having him effectively switch positions to a more athletic position. I would, however, like to see how Ruf does against AAA pitching the rest of this year, I’d like to see him get a lot of reps in the outfield in the fall league – if he does well enough, I’d like to see him work some left field early next year for LHV. But it really does appear that the guy can hit and I’ve been impressed the two times I’ve seen him in person.
I agree, there is zero chance of what I’ve proposed happening. I guess I just don’t see the downside to doing it.
If Ruf isn’t ready for left right now then I wouldn’t call him up to the majors. But I would also stop this 50% of his games in left bullcrap. For him to have any chance he needs to start in LF from here on out regardless of where that is.
So what is your point don’t hope or what promote guys who DONT hit at AA.
No one know what is going to happen until it does. Is there someone at AAA who is blocking anyone.
I’m still encouraged by Colvin’s 1 hit allowed against a decent hitting Binghamton team. He could really salvage what appeared to be a lost season if he could go out and throw a streak of quality starts together.
By my count, since Pointer’s return to Lakewood:
12 Games – .317 BA, 8 Walks (16.32%), 11 Strikeouts (22.45%) in 49 plate appearances. Not too shabby
Control continues to allude Aumont. At this point I don’t care if he gets hit. You can’t get anybody out throwing the ball to the backstop.
Good to see a couple clean-ish innings from JC Ramirez. I still say he’s more of a thrower than a pitcher at this point, but in this case it worked out OK. Still gaining acceptance.
Franco since the All-Star break (162 AB): .311/.372/.491, 6 HR, 28/15 K/BB. At 19 years old, given the position he plays, he’s making a case in my mind to be the team’s top position prospect.
That sounds about right – especially given his age relative to his level. I would probably have him ahead of May, personally. Even when he struggled the first few months of the season, his peripheral numbers (BB% and XBH%) were pretty consistent. All reports are that he is a decent fielder. Other than the fact that he is leadfooted, he seems to be a pretty well-rounded prospect.
And to think, in a year Tocci could completely overshadow both of them given current paces. When it comes to age+production, Tocci is top dog. The only thing against him is he needs to do it over a longer amount of time (which he might once he has been playing long enough). Well, power would be nice too (I know he’s 16 so he has barely even begun to add muscle yet, just saying). Would be nice having a C, 3B, and CF all performing extremely well while significantly young for their level. I guess we might be able to throw Bonilla into that classification for a pitcher, as well (also still hoping he gets converted back to starter).
The farm is a lot more fun to follow these days, it seems.
What Tocci is doing is astonishing… at 16 I was 5’11” 125lbs… by 19, 6’1” 165, and it was all muscle (was in military school then so lots of training). Now, take Tocci, 6’2” 160, and figure in the next 3 years he puts on 30-40lbs of muscle and 1-2 inches in height. We’re talking about a guy who’s 6-3 to 6-4 and 190/200lbs about the perfect profile for a centerfielder with some power.
At this point, there’s about a 5% chance this kid could be a superstar… which is probably the highest percentage of any prospect in our entire system.
Imagine for a moment, if he is, he’ll be a full time starter in MLB at age 20/21…
(And if that superstar eval occurs, I 100% believe he’ll skip atleast 1 of the below levels.)
1 Level per year =
Age 17 – Williamsport
Age 18 – Lakewood
Age 19 Clearwater
Age 20 Reading
Age 21 LHV/Philly
I’ve seen Tocci in person in ST and believe me he is closer to your 16 yr old body than the phillies listing. My estimate would put him at no more than 6′ and 145lbs at best. Now can he add on, yes, but he had to be the thinnest( especially in the hip area) 16 yr old I’ve ever seen and I was a HS coach so I’ve seen many 16 yr old athletes.
As it relates to power ONLY – I would project him as follows based on how his body matures or doesn’t….
No further development – Juan Pierre power
Average / moderate development as most men do who are athletes – BJ / Justin Upton
Better than average development – Matt Kemp
And I can only assume based on your irritable comment that you haven’t gotten any recently. Why don’t you go to the local biker bar and find bubba the skull crusher to sate your desires before spouting your useless anonymous comments on here.
A few months ago, I always looked forward to seeing the Williamsport and GCL box scores first. The past few weeks, with a combination of those guys cooling a bit and the performance of some of the other guys through the system, that has changed a bit.
I wonder how Alec Rash will do next year in college? Sure glad Dave Montgomery kept the Phillies over $218,000 UNDER budget. Rash wanted to sign too, but the Phillies just wouldn’t come close to what they new the price was before the draft. In fact they refused to offer even one dollar in CASH above slot value.
Pay attention…Rash is probably hurt. There have been numerous articles/posters about his huge drop in velocity. I’m not even sure that spending slot value ($500K) would’ve been smart considering he was topping out at 86mph.
Above posts got me thinking about the depth of our position prospects. I was surprised. Not saying all these will make it, just that there are some nice projections and that our dearth of position prospects seems to be improving with prospect development and acquisitions. I valued performance of young guys in NY-Penn, was cautious with GCL guys.
Project to starter, in order of combined ceiling/proximity/risk:
Joseph
Hernandez
Franco
Quinn
L. Greene
Walding
Asche
Project to role player, in order of combined ceiling/proximity/risk:
Valle
Rupp
Gillies
Castro
Ruf
Younger guys who project to role player, in order of combined ceiling/proximity/risk:
(includes players who may have starter potential, but not enough track record built up)
Pullin
Z. Green
Tocci
Cozens
Collier
Alonzo
Seritella
Lino
Guys who were once interesting, may yet break through:
James
T. Greene
Looking at this list is pretty interesting. I’m sure I could quibble here and there, but there is absolutely some projectable depth of position players now. Looking at the top two lists, a year ago, I think we’d have been projecting Cesar, Franco and Valle in the top group, with Collier Rupp and James in the second group and obviously a bunch of the first gruop guys in the third group for lack of results. Moving forward for sure.
Can’t argue much with this, except to say that if Quinn, Walding and LGJ can be reasonably projected as everyday starters based on short season performances, so could Tocci. Nice list!
I guess I like Asche more than you do. I’d easily have him in front of Walding and somewhere near Franco. He’s been hitting pretty well for awhile now at AA, but I wonder about his defense a little bit.
Maybe I had Asche low. Just seemed some of the other guys had a little more star potential, like Quinn and L Greene, who have a single off-the-charts skill. Asche has a chance of becoming a mediocre big leaguer, but he will likely be in the bigs. Quinn and Greene, for example may never make it, but if they do, they might have all-star potential.
I think his ceiling is more than mediocre. At least one of those prospect gurus we like to talk about so much (can’t remember which) says he’s a possible everyday 3B with good power and a solid hit tool. If he stays at 3B, I think he could be a good offensive player, and maybe an average/mediocre defensive one.
Also, compared to Walding, Asche is 2 years older but 3 levels higher and putting up better numbers.
I have been a Tyler Cloyd fan for a few years abd was surprised (I could use stronger language) when after Blanton was waived to the Dodgers, Cloyd was not called up to the Phillies.. What more does he have to priove in AAA–so far this year 14 wins, one lose (AAA and AA). This would be a perfect time to see what he can do in the majors. Instead Rosenberg gets the call up. Very disappointed with the Phillies’ thinking when it comes to Cloyd.
I get the Duckworth comparison but not the Chen one … Chen was dominant in the minor leagues. He struck out 193 in 162 innings as a 21-year-old between double A and triple A . Baseball America ranked him as the fourth best prospect in baseball in 1999. He’s a guy who never lived up to expectations. Since there are no expectations for Cloyd, I don’t think that’s going to be his story.
Keep in mind that Cloyd started that night or the night before so calling him up Rosenberg made sense because you have an extra pitchers for 4 days or so. I thought he’d get the call on wednesday, but apparently not. we’ll see if Kendrick gets pummeled if Cloyd gets the call next time
I would guess they’re thinking BJ Rosenberg and Kyle Kendrick will also do the job and not cost them another big league salary this year. I imagine Cloyd will be given a decent chance in the spring to win a job in the rotation.
There is no real reason for anyone that follows minor league baseball (I’m assuming those on this site fall into this category) would view Cloyd ahead of Rosenberg. Those on this site should know better to look past W/L and ERA.
Rosenberg is a better relief pitcher. But Cloyd is a better starter. And I follow the minors as well as anyone. I’d still rather see Cloyd start and Kendrick pitch from the pen. Rather than Kendrick start and Rosenberg in the pen. JMO.
JMB – Both are on the cusp of the bigs, one has one foot in, one does not. Rosenberg’s sample as a starter is very small. Cloyd’s shown results (WHIP under 1 and BB/9 just over 2 are hard results to deny at AAA, even with a K/9 below 6), so it’s not hard to argue that it’s close. If we’re comparing their career potential as starters, it’s probably a toss-up because of Cloyd’s results and Rosenberg’s velocity.
Now, if they both become relievers, which I will concede seems fairly likely since neither really profiles as a big league starter for all the reasons we all already know, Rosenberg obviously has the edge with a good K Rate.
I’m not speaking about starter vs reliever. I don’t expect either to be a major league starter, but I believe Rosenberg can be an effective bullpen arm.
Chill out, I said Rosenberg is better in the long run, but if one was to provide the best results in the Major Leagues right now it would be Cloyd, Rosenberg has a great arm and all but he needs to figure out Major League hitters, Rosenberg’s arsenal when facing hitters he is familiar with is great, and once he gets adjusted he will be great, but Cloyd has the kind of stuff that will fool hitters just enough to get by for a little while which current day is what the Phillies are looking for, very similar to Kendrick in 2007, mind you Kendrick won 10 games that year and then the third, forth time around against teams he was brought back down to earth. Rosenberg is a Reliever no matter what and Cloyd is a starter, and a solid current short term option who may turn out to be better than we thought. And by the way I absolutely hate judging players by stats, its ridiculous and all my opinions on players have come from first hand watching them or see film of them.
Why would you say that neither is a difference maker ? A decent number 5 for $500K is exactly what we need right now. That would save us like $9 million next year if either one can replace Blanton. ??
That’s the point though. Neither of them can step in and fill Blanton’s place. At best they’re okay to use as a #5 if someone gets hurt during the season, but you don’t want to go into the year with either of them penciled in as a starter. And it’s more likely that they get shelled if given a chance to start.
Pat…that is a point most are missing. If you go into the season with Cloyd as your 7th or 8th starter instead of your 5th, you have a much better chance of being successful. Injuries are going to happen. You don’t start the season with somebody like that as your fifth starter, at least not if you are a team that has visions of contending.
Besides, they’re already paying Kendrick around $3 million to be the #5 starter. Cloyd won’t be much more than a #6 starter for this team. (which is fine, every team needs a guy like that).
cloyd maybe a relief pitcher on a bad team, like houston, but no way he can help a team with pennant and world championship dreams. ANOTHER swindle. the guy who will help is de f raus he is almost ready. that is a pitcher,
How do you know how effective TC will be when Amaro would even bring the guy up to the bigs.. Let him pitch an inning or two and then we’ll compare him to JH
Sort of a nice complement to the “daily box scores” regarding dominic brown’s prospect status for next year. (meaning he hopefully is done with the minors!)
“The Phillies also have to be happy with what they have seen out of rookie leftfielder Brown thus far. In the six games since he was called up from Triple A Lehigh Valley in the wake of the Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence trades, the 24-year-old southpaw has played capably in the field, a question that has surrounded him for the last couple of seasons. Capable is a good word to describe the way he has looked at the plate. Despite starting the season 3-for-14, Brown has provided the Phillies with several good at-bats. Heading into Sunday, he had swung and missed at just three of the 62 pitches he had seen. In the win over the Diamondbacks, which gave the Phillies the series victory and a 49-59 record, Brown doubled and scored a run in the second inning, then legged out an infield single in the eighth that resulted in the game-tying run on a throwing error by Arizona reliever David Hernandez .” From philly.com today.
I’m really happy for Brown and glad to see he is playing well. He’s really had some good at-bats, running a lot of deep counts. He’s also looked adequate in LF as well. Not saying he’s a HOF or anything, but at least they MAY have one less question mark going in to next year.
Just pointing out why you might not see a page, devoted to discussion of last night, and often used for games and articles posted the following day, doesn’t have a discussion of Morgan. There is plenty of discussion on him in other pages.
Doesn’t make a lot of sense to me that Biddle this winter could be that much less regarded than May was last winter, when he got rated #69 despite repeating a level and being a year older than Biddle will be after pitching at the same level.
I actually don’t care about the “top 100” lists this year. Most of the phillies talent is below AA, and they’re a product of that. In the next 2 years, provided the phillies don’t ship off another haul of prospects, we’ll have as many as 6 in the top 100.
I like the way the Phillies are bringing Biddle along and the way that he is developing his own baseball psyche. He is going to be outstanding, but at this stage of his development he is under the radar on what the BAs of the world see. They have to compare him to guys that are throwing with command in the mid-nineties. He is not in that crowd and may never be. That will not stop him from being outstanding.
Rather than match your obvious trolling: Mayberry is getting playing time because he could still be a fine 4/5 outfielder on the team and he is auditioning for a job going forward. We all know that he won’t be starting in CF next year but there is a chance that he is a good bench bat next year who could platoon with Schierholtz (if they choose to upgrade at 3B instead of RF) who could spell Brown occasionally. He may not have met draft day expectations but he is a solid major league bench player. Players are often bad because they are put in positions that they do not have the skills for and would be positives if put in the correct roles.
Very well put. Mayberry is what he is, and people should not expect more. Like you said, a fine 4/5th OF and IMO, can also come in at first base and spell Ryan Howard..
“John Stinkberry” …Clever! Where do you come up with this stuff, Anonydouche? If Mayberry was a bust three years ago, how do we account for his .854 OPS in 2011? He’ll never be a big league star, but he’s a useful piece if you play him in the right role.
Just reading all of the Ruf and Cloyd comments brings up something I heard on the BP Podcast with regards to getting value from prospects. I know we want everyone to be a major league regular and there is always a hole to fill on the big league club. But think of it this way and be excited in a much more reasonable fashion. If Cloyd pitches a big league inning or Ruf gets a big league hit, they have surpassed their value immensely. Anything more is just house money, either of them make the bigs and it is a scouting success by the Phillies. The experts are trashing the excitement that fans have that so and so is going to be a star because of minor league numbers but they would all readily admit that a player drafted as late as one of these guys making the majors even for a week is a huge return on value.
Very true. However, few people want to talk about prospects like Clay Condrey.
Prospects with either huge tools (and inconsistent results) or with great stats can be projected to greatness. The path is quite long and difficult. Just think of how many years it will be until Tocci will be a ‘star’. So many things can happen along the way.
Cloyd has shown an ability to pitch and can at least get poor MLB (AAA) hitters out. He may get a few good starts and then it depends on if can somehow be that extraordinary type of player to get by with inferior stuff.
Rosenberg might carve out a long reliever/spot starter role for a few years on the cheap. Like most hard throwers, command will determine his fate.
Definitely two players on opposite sides of the results/projection continuum. Makes it fun to blog about them.
Rosenberg has a great arm. How do you rate all those great arms better that his. Great-Great-Great. 6 in the top 100 , dreamer. Good to see some logic and reality MattWinks
Sometimes –I think these national prospect pundits are full statistical hot air.. I don’t have the stats to back that up, it s just feeling Of nausea i get ….
I would love to see some of these AA / AAA players that everyone has written off as over the hill at 24/25 yo, get a chance and really succeed in the bigs…
Some guys have done better. Most of the players you speak of do not make it. I can recall the wildness of wishing Rizzotti to the majors. It is not going to happen, yet it for Ludwig. Who knows? The lower monied teams sometimes help this process. This is not the Phils even though the sell-out streak stopped tonight.
Mayberry is what he is, yes a fourth or fifth outfielder. my problem is the phillies trying to make him more. they thought at his age and experience he could be the answer in left, anyone who has seen this kid play, knows he cant hit any offspeed pitches, so i blame the phillies for not recognizaion that and forcing the kid into a bad situation.Amaro did such a poor job of finding replacement players for guys like howard who he knew would be out at least until june. and trying guys like qualls in the bullpen, terrible signing. wiggington, cant hit or field. so it is amaro and his scouts who went out and got these players,injuries happen, and you need capable fillins, washington lost a lot of players too, werth ,morse, clippard. two catchers, and others yet they keep winning.washington lost there main closer too,And the really sad part is we have nothing ready in positon players to help.
Shull was activated off the DL and assigned to GCL yesterday (nice catch, marfis). Hopefully this is more than just a procedural move and Shull will be able to pitch this summer.
Roccum, this is the prospects area not the General Discussion so can you keep your rants in there. Did you think players like Halladay, Howard, Lee and Utley (all on DL this year) grow on vines and can be easily replaced? Good Greif!
this is the prospects area ,lmao morse , werth two catchers there closer, and how many others they lose, and washington hung on to be in f irst so that arguments doesnt hold water.and good grief, some people just think whatever the phillies do is right, have no guts to say the truth in spite of injuries, this team should never be this bad, if amaro got some good fill in players.
Washington “hung on to be in first” because they have excellent pitching. Their offense is still pretty bad, and only slightly (and by that, I mean 20 runs to this point in the season) better than the Phillies. The reason the Phillies are losing this year is their pitching. The constant harping about this team’s offense and lack of replacements is just a lack of understanding. The team is built on pitching and the guys either haven’t performed as expected (Lee), have been injured (most of the bullpen) or both (Halladay).
In other words, you put last year’s pitching performances on this year’s team, even with the lack of “good fill in players” on offense, and they are winning.
The Reading game was encouraging as Colvin really settled down after the wild 1st and 2nd innings.. Asche and Ruff continue to impress — and Ruff deserves a shot with the big club…
Aumont blew a chance for LV to gain at least a portion of 1st place..hE was so wild giving up 3 BB ,2 hits , 2 wp and 2 runs to have Paw tie the gm in bot 9th
Jake D.. Gave up the winning run to Paw w/o even giving up a hit.. 3 BB..
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I like Ruf as much as the next guy, but why do folks assume that, just because he can hit in Reading, it means that he should go right to Philadelphia? A LOT of older prospects who do well in Reading never make it to the big leagues and many do not even do well in Lehigh Valley. For example, both Overbeck and Rizzotti were either bad or mediocre in AAA. Now, while I think Ruf is quite a bit better than both of those prospects, to me, given his age and profile, I need to see what he does in AAA before I get too excited about him.
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Agreed – but given how Overbeck has been doing, not sure why they havent flip flopped them…. or at least let Ruf play LF. Whos he gonna block? Spidale? Now that Dom Brown in up, move Ruf to AAA. Im kinda tired of some of the placeholders they keep in LV.
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Well, given the fact they just signed Jake Fox who plays Catcher, and all corners. A Ruf callup isn’t happening just yet. Maybe they know something we don’t
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I get he’s old, but is their really anything to lose by giving him more of a chance this year? This is the first season in awhile that is more or less lost, so why not check on a guy like Ruf?
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Agree with you on your assessment, plus I like to see how he would also perform in the AFL this fall.
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I’d like to see how he does this year in the AFL as well. Hopefully much better than last year. Last year he hit .239/.363/.388 in 80 PA’s. Overbeck hit .321/.427/.457 in 96 PA’s. The league average for everybody in AFL last year was .286/.356/.453. Granted those are small sample sizes for Ruf and Overbeck, but Ruf surely didn’t do anything to suggest he would survive in the majors.
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Yeah, I’d like him to play in AAA . To see what he can do. Maybe he’ll perform as well as Cloyd … and then what ? He’ll just be older. 🙂 And still there.
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I’m not a huge “Ruf is a top prospect” guy, but given the phillies pointless remainder of the year, call his ass up, sink or swim. One way or another we’ll get something good out of it. Either A, he proves he can mash and play LF at the MLB level, or B He sucks, and his hitting/defense cause the phillies to lose more games – HIGHER DRAFT PICK!
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So you’d rather Ruf play LH in Philly than Dom Brown? Can’t see that happening.
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Phillies also have a responsibility to the 40,000 paying fans as well as the other teams in the game to put their best possible team on the field.
Calling up a bunch of AA players and playing them just to see how they do would be a low-class move.
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I agree with you, but the point of doing this isn’t to “tank” persay. It’s an attempt at fielding the best possible team next year. And that, as fans, we can all agree should be our primary goal at this point. I am one of those paying 40,000 fans, and I want to see the future, becuase this year should be forgotten.
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Any notion of that evaporated when Michael Martinez was called back up.
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Michael Martinez might possibly be the most frustrating baseball player ever. He is actually very fast and plays good infield defense, and if he tried, he could make good contact. He could actually be a Juan Pierre type offensive player if he wanted to be, but I think he looks in the mirror and sees Ryan Howard’s body. Cannot stand him or his approach, just absolutely terrible.
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When a tough lefty comes up, bench Schierholtz, start Brown in right, and Ruf in left.
When a tough righty comes up, bench Mayberry, Brown in center, Shierholtz in right, (or the other way around if Shierholtz is better in center then Brown) and Ruf in left.
Between those 4 with Shierholtz and Mayberry in semi-platooning role, and assuming 270 (5 AB’s per game over 54 games) AB’s remaining per position over the rest of the year, you should be able to get Ruf about 175 ABs, Brown the full 270, and Schierholtz/Mayberry 182 a piece.
Just to clarify, I fully believe brown is hands down the better prospect and should get every at bat available for the rest of the year. The real question is do the phillies view either Schierholtz or Mayberry as a starter next year, if the answer is yes, then that would cut down significantly on the number of AB’s Ruf can play if called up.
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And btw 3up, in my above scenario, the phillies would be maximising the Mayberry and Schierholtz given their splits… so as I said, not a complete tanking attitude. I don’t believe in tanking any more then you, but I also don’t believe in wasting the opportunity that we have for the remainder of the year. (The opportunity to let players who are fringe, sink or swim.) In some ways, if ruf were to come up and get his 170 AB’s and crush it, It would probably cause the phillies all kinds of planning problems. You’d have a player who you didn’t think was going to excel do just that, but in a semi small sample size. (We had a similiar issue with Mayberry going into the year, and that didn’t work out very well at all).
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I just don’t see the Phillies promoting an older, marginally athletic prospect two levels AND having him effectively switch positions to a more athletic position. I would, however, like to see how Ruf does against AAA pitching the rest of this year, I’d like to see him get a lot of reps in the outfield in the fall league – if he does well enough, I’d like to see him work some left field early next year for LHV. But it really does appear that the guy can hit and I’ve been impressed the two times I’ve seen him in person.
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I agree, there is zero chance of what I’ve proposed happening. I guess I just don’t see the downside to doing it.
If Ruf isn’t ready for left right now then I wouldn’t call him up to the majors. But I would also stop this 50% of his games in left bullcrap. For him to have any chance he needs to start in LF from here on out regardless of where that is.
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So what is your point don’t hope or what promote guys who DONT hit at AA.
No one know what is going to happen until it does. Is there someone at AAA who is blocking anyone.
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Lots of guys going deep last night.
Perci with a nice 5 innings, allowing no walks.
Colvin continues to struggle with his control.
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I’m still encouraged by Colvin’s 1 hit allowed against a decent hitting Binghamton team. He could really salvage what appeared to be a lost season if he could go out and throw a streak of quality starts together.
By my count, since Pointer’s return to Lakewood:
12 Games – .317 BA, 8 Walks (16.32%), 11 Strikeouts (22.45%) in 49 plate appearances. Not too shabby
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I liked Colvin’s outing. He was wild early and then settled down to retire the last 10. Okay, he walked one guy and then a DP wiped him out.
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Dan Carp on Tom Joseph:
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20120806_PHILLIES__HOT_HEIR.html
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Control continues to allude Aumont. At this point I don’t care if he gets hit. You can’t get anybody out throwing the ball to the backstop.
Good to see a couple clean-ish innings from JC Ramirez. I still say he’s more of a thrower than a pitcher at this point, but in this case it worked out OK. Still gaining acceptance.
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Him and Diekman…if they ever get their control and command together they could be awesome.
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That was some trade Amaro made for Cliff Lee.
After seeing that any Phillies fan should vomit in fear at the thought of Cliff Lee being traded again.
A true “sack of crap” if there ever was one.
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Get over it.
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Gillies 2-4 with a double……..
Giles continues to dominate…
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Franco since the All-Star break (162 AB): .311/.372/.491, 6 HR, 28/15 K/BB. At 19 years old, given the position he plays, he’s making a case in my mind to be the team’s top position prospect.
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I have him at the top, tied with Joseph, as positional player and three/four overall, behind Biddle and May.
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That sounds about right – especially given his age relative to his level. I would probably have him ahead of May, personally. Even when he struggled the first few months of the season, his peripheral numbers (BB% and XBH%) were pretty consistent. All reports are that he is a decent fielder. Other than the fact that he is leadfooted, he seems to be a pretty well-rounded prospect.
– Jeff
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You maintain May at the top? I drop may to 4/5.
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I have Cesar Hernandez as my top position player.
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And to think, in a year Tocci could completely overshadow both of them given current paces. When it comes to age+production, Tocci is top dog. The only thing against him is he needs to do it over a longer amount of time (which he might once he has been playing long enough). Well, power would be nice too (I know he’s 16 so he has barely even begun to add muscle yet, just saying). Would be nice having a C, 3B, and CF all performing extremely well while significantly young for their level. I guess we might be able to throw Bonilla into that classification for a pitcher, as well (also still hoping he gets converted back to starter).
The farm is a lot more fun to follow these days, it seems.
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Right about Tocci
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What Tocci is doing is astonishing… at 16 I was 5’11” 125lbs… by 19, 6’1” 165, and it was all muscle (was in military school then so lots of training). Now, take Tocci, 6’2” 160, and figure in the next 3 years he puts on 30-40lbs of muscle and 1-2 inches in height. We’re talking about a guy who’s 6-3 to 6-4 and 190/200lbs about the perfect profile for a centerfielder with some power.
At this point, there’s about a 5% chance this kid could be a superstar… which is probably the highest percentage of any prospect in our entire system.
Imagine for a moment, if he is, he’ll be a full time starter in MLB at age 20/21…
(And if that superstar eval occurs, I 100% believe he’ll skip atleast 1 of the below levels.)
1 Level per year =
Age 17 – Williamsport
Age 18 – Lakewood
Age 19 Clearwater
Age 20 Reading
Age 21 LHV/Philly
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I’ve seen Tocci in person in ST and believe me he is closer to your 16 yr old body than the phillies listing. My estimate would put him at no more than 6′ and 145lbs at best. Now can he add on, yes, but he had to be the thinnest( especially in the hip area) 16 yr old I’ve ever seen and I was a HS coach so I’ve seen many 16 yr old athletes.
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If you were to project him with an extra 40lbs of muscle are we talking a michael borne build? (I’ve never seen him in person).
I guess what i’m asking is… do you believe he’ll be capable of 15-20 HR’s as a fully mature adult?
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As it relates to power ONLY – I would project him as follows based on how his body matures or doesn’t….
No further development – Juan Pierre power
Average / moderate development as most men do who are athletes – BJ / Justin Upton
Better than average development – Matt Kemp
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You need to take your Thorazine.
Let’s see how Tocci does at Lakewood before we turn him into Miguel Cabrera in CF.
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And I can only assume based on your irritable comment that you haven’t gotten any recently. Why don’t you go to the local biker bar and find bubba the skull crusher to sate your desires before spouting your useless anonymous comments on here.
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I like the improving BB rate. That’s key.
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Franco is a Dominican.
Are you the last guy on planet Earth to get the memo about the age and identity falsification by Dominicans?
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I know who you are, anon…took me a while, but I figured it out!
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Giles does not mess around…
Officially put on my list of “must-see” pitchers.
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Is he definitely a reliever going forward? Would love to see that BB rate go down just a bit.
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A few months ago, I always looked forward to seeing the Williamsport and GCL box scores first. The past few weeks, with a combination of those guys cooling a bit and the performance of some of the other guys through the system, that has changed a bit.
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GCL looks very good.
Pullin, Tocci and Green.
Williamsport is just sad.
I wonder how Alec Rash will do next year in college? Sure glad Dave Montgomery kept the Phillies over $218,000 UNDER budget. Rash wanted to sign too, but the Phillies just wouldn’t come close to what they new the price was before the draft. In fact they refused to offer even one dollar in CASH above slot value.
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Pay attention…Rash is probably hurt. There have been numerous articles/posters about his huge drop in velocity. I’m not even sure that spending slot value ($500K) would’ve been smart considering he was topping out at 86mph.
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Everything I read on the Des Moines Register – which covered Rash and his negotiation extensively – had him at _96_MPH.
Video too.
Phillies put out some bulls**t about Rash.
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Thanks, Mrs. Rash … best of luck to your boy
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I think Jim Callis also said that Rash’s velocity fell so yeah it wasn’t just some Phillies bulls**t.
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Jim said he was having a terrible spring.
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Above posts got me thinking about the depth of our position prospects. I was surprised. Not saying all these will make it, just that there are some nice projections and that our dearth of position prospects seems to be improving with prospect development and acquisitions. I valued performance of young guys in NY-Penn, was cautious with GCL guys.
Project to starter, in order of combined ceiling/proximity/risk:
Joseph
Hernandez
Franco
Quinn
L. Greene
Walding
Asche
Project to role player, in order of combined ceiling/proximity/risk:
Valle
Rupp
Gillies
Castro
Ruf
Younger guys who project to role player, in order of combined ceiling/proximity/risk:
(includes players who may have starter potential, but not enough track record built up)
Pullin
Z. Green
Tocci
Cozens
Collier
Alonzo
Seritella
Lino
Guys who were once interesting, may yet break through:
James
T. Greene
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Looking at this list is pretty interesting. I’m sure I could quibble here and there, but there is absolutely some projectable depth of position players now. Looking at the top two lists, a year ago, I think we’d have been projecting Cesar, Franco and Valle in the top group, with Collier Rupp and James in the second group and obviously a bunch of the first gruop guys in the third group for lack of results. Moving forward for sure.
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Nice job, pretty much agree with you on all of them.
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Can’t argue much with this, except to say that if Quinn, Walding and LGJ can be reasonably projected as everyday starters based on short season performances, so could Tocci. Nice list!
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Can’t argue. But I put more weight on a nice run against college level pitchers than GCL. That’s my differentiator.
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I guess I like Asche more than you do. I’d easily have him in front of Walding and somewhere near Franco. He’s been hitting pretty well for awhile now at AA, but I wonder about his defense a little bit.
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Still cannot get over and totally understand Keith Law’s assessment of Ache!
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Maybe I had Asche low. Just seemed some of the other guys had a little more star potential, like Quinn and L Greene, who have a single off-the-charts skill. Asche has a chance of becoming a mediocre big leaguer, but he will likely be in the bigs. Quinn and Greene, for example may never make it, but if they do, they might have all-star potential.
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I think his ceiling is more than mediocre. At least one of those prospect gurus we like to talk about so much (can’t remember which) says he’s a possible everyday 3B with good power and a solid hit tool. If he stays at 3B, I think he could be a good offensive player, and maybe an average/mediocre defensive one.
Also, compared to Walding, Asche is 2 years older but 3 levels higher and putting up better numbers.
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D’Arby Myers up to 291, long ago it was decided he was not a prospect, but it is interesting to note that he is still only 23
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Yes, he’s having a career small sample size season with 79 at-bats in Reading so far.
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Story on Colvin: http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120806&content_id=36209274&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb
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I have been a Tyler Cloyd fan for a few years abd was surprised (I could use stronger language) when after Blanton was waived to the Dodgers, Cloyd was not called up to the Phillies.. What more does he have to priove in AAA–so far this year 14 wins, one lose (AAA and AA). This would be a perfect time to see what he can do in the majors. Instead Rosenberg gets the call up. Very disappointed with the Phillies’ thinking when it comes to Cloyd.
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I’m sure you jumped on his bandwagon when he was drafted, right?
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When I read reports about Cloyd and combine that with stats I can’t help thinking Brandon Duckworth. Hope Im wrong.
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You read my mind. Exactly. Brandon Duckworth. Although, another of their type, Bruce Chen, has become a good pitcher. You never can tell.
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I get the Duckworth comparison but not the Chen one … Chen was dominant in the minor leagues. He struck out 193 in 162 innings as a 21-year-old between double A and triple A . Baseball America ranked him as the fourth best prospect in baseball in 1999. He’s a guy who never lived up to expectations. Since there are no expectations for Cloyd, I don’t think that’s going to be his story.
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Keep in mind that Cloyd started that night or the night before so calling him up Rosenberg made sense because you have an extra pitchers for 4 days or so. I thought he’d get the call on wednesday, but apparently not. we’ll see if Kendrick gets pummeled if Cloyd gets the call next time
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I would guess they’re thinking BJ Rosenberg and Kyle Kendrick will also do the job and not cost them another big league salary this year. I imagine Cloyd will be given a decent chance in the spring to win a job in the rotation.
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I wonder if they would consider going to a six man rotation in september to save some arms and give Cloyd a chance.
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Charlie Manuel mentioned he would be called up soon and see what he can do, after Friday night’s game against the D’backs.
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Rosenberg is better than Cloyd.
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Currently, I have to give the edge to Cloyd slightly, but Rosenberg is better in the long run
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There is no real reason for anyone that follows minor league baseball (I’m assuming those on this site fall into this category) would view Cloyd ahead of Rosenberg. Those on this site should know better to look past W/L and ERA.
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Unfortunately, I don’t believe that is the case with many on this site.
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Rosenberg is a better relief pitcher. But Cloyd is a better starter. And I follow the minors as well as anyone. I’d still rather see Cloyd start and Kendrick pitch from the pen. Rather than Kendrick start and Rosenberg in the pen. JMO.
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JMB – Both are on the cusp of the bigs, one has one foot in, one does not. Rosenberg’s sample as a starter is very small. Cloyd’s shown results (WHIP under 1 and BB/9 just over 2 are hard results to deny at AAA, even with a K/9 below 6), so it’s not hard to argue that it’s close. If we’re comparing their career potential as starters, it’s probably a toss-up because of Cloyd’s results and Rosenberg’s velocity.
Now, if they both become relievers, which I will concede seems fairly likely since neither really profiles as a big league starter for all the reasons we all already know, Rosenberg obviously has the edge with a good K Rate.
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I’m not speaking about starter vs reliever. I don’t expect either to be a major league starter, but I believe Rosenberg can be an effective bullpen arm.
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Chill out, I said Rosenberg is better in the long run, but if one was to provide the best results in the Major Leagues right now it would be Cloyd, Rosenberg has a great arm and all but he needs to figure out Major League hitters, Rosenberg’s arsenal when facing hitters he is familiar with is great, and once he gets adjusted he will be great, but Cloyd has the kind of stuff that will fool hitters just enough to get by for a little while which current day is what the Phillies are looking for, very similar to Kendrick in 2007, mind you Kendrick won 10 games that year and then the third, forth time around against teams he was brought back down to earth. Rosenberg is a Reliever no matter what and Cloyd is a starter, and a solid current short term option who may turn out to be better than we thought. And by the way I absolutely hate judging players by stats, its ridiculous and all my opinions on players have come from first hand watching them or see film of them.
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Both are optimistically 5/6 starters or middle relievers.
Neither is a difference maker.
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Why would you say that neither is a difference maker ? A decent number 5 for $500K is exactly what we need right now. That would save us like $9 million next year if either one can replace Blanton. ??
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That’s the point though. Neither of them can step in and fill Blanton’s place. At best they’re okay to use as a #5 if someone gets hurt during the season, but you don’t want to go into the year with either of them penciled in as a starter. And it’s more likely that they get shelled if given a chance to start.
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Pat…that is a point most are missing. If you go into the season with Cloyd as your 7th or 8th starter instead of your 5th, you have a much better chance of being successful. Injuries are going to happen. You don’t start the season with somebody like that as your fifth starter, at least not if you are a team that has visions of contending.
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Besides, they’re already paying Kendrick around $3 million to be the #5 starter. Cloyd won’t be much more than a #6 starter for this team. (which is fine, every team needs a guy like that).
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Apples and oranges, starter vs reliever.
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Cloyd will get raked into oblivion in MLB. Look at the K/IP ratio.
Nothing there.
Perhaps if he were pitching against the Phillies he could survive since their lineup isn’t any better than what’s in AAA.
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Rosenberg was absolutely the choice. It is good to see him get the velocity back after he pitched himself out a couple of years ago. Go BJ.
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Derrick Mitchell with a re-hap start in GCL goes yard
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cloyd maybe a relief pitcher on a bad team, like houston, but no way he can help a team with pennant and world championship dreams. ANOTHER swindle. the guy who will help is de f raus he is almost ready. that is a pitcher,
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See JA Happ as far as a decent young pitcher giving value to a championship club 2008 and 2009. And just for fun he bacame a valuable trade chip.
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A lefty throwing 88-89 is a lot different than a righty throwing 88-89.
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In addition, Tyler Cloyd isn’t even close to the prospect Happ was.
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And you know this, how?
How do you know how effective TC will be when Amaro would even bring the guy up to the bigs.. Let him pitch an inning or two and then we’ll compare him to JH
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* correction should read:
‘won’t ‘ …
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Sort of a nice complement to the “daily box scores” regarding dominic brown’s prospect status for next year. (meaning he hopefully is done with the minors!)
“The Phillies also have to be happy with what they have seen out of rookie leftfielder Brown thus far. In the six games since he was called up from Triple A Lehigh Valley in the wake of the Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence trades, the 24-year-old southpaw has played capably in the field, a question that has surrounded him for the last couple of seasons. Capable is a good word to describe the way he has looked at the plate. Despite starting the season 3-for-14, Brown has provided the Phillies with several good at-bats. Heading into Sunday, he had swung and missed at just three of the 62 pitches he had seen. In the win over the Diamondbacks, which gave the Phillies the series victory and a 49-59 record, Brown doubled and scored a run in the second inning, then legged out an infield single in the eighth that resulted in the game-tying run on a throwing error by Arizona reliever David Hernandez .” From philly.com today.
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I’m really happy for Brown and glad to see he is playing well. He’s really had some good at-bats, running a lot of deep counts. He’s also looked adequate in LF as well. Not saying he’s a HOF or anything, but at least they MAY have one less question mark going in to next year.
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Jim Callis of BA said that the only Phillies prospect that has a chance to make their Top 100 list this winter is Joseph and “he’s not a lock”.
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Callis is an extreme outlyer on Biddle.
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Doesn’t seem to high on Jonathan Singleton either.
Not that Singleton matters around here anymore.
Or…
Domingo Santana.
Surprised I don’t see any mentions of Adam Morgan on this page.
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Adam Morgan didn’t pitch on August 5, 2012.
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Page is full of people rating prospects or is this your lame attempt at sarcasm/and being anti-social?
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Just pointing out why you might not see a page, devoted to discussion of last night, and often used for games and articles posted the following day, doesn’t have a discussion of Morgan. There is plenty of discussion on him in other pages.
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Doesn’t make a lot of sense to me that Biddle this winter could be that much less regarded than May was last winter, when he got rated #69 despite repeating a level and being a year older than Biddle will be after pitching at the same level.
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I actually don’t care about the “top 100” lists this year. Most of the phillies talent is below AA, and they’re a product of that. In the next 2 years, provided the phillies don’t ship off another haul of prospects, we’ll have as many as 6 in the top 100.
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I like the way the Phillies are bringing Biddle along and the way that he is developing his own baseball psyche. He is going to be outstanding, but at this stage of his development he is under the radar on what the BAs of the world see. They have to compare him to guys that are throwing with command in the mid-nineties. He is not in that crowd and may never be. That will not stop him from being outstanding.
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there is no way, no way cloyd is near as good as happ, and happ isnt anything to brag about.
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Why is John Stinkberry Jr. still getting playing time for the Phillies?
This guy was an official BUST three years ago.
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Rather than match your obvious trolling: Mayberry is getting playing time because he could still be a fine 4/5 outfielder on the team and he is auditioning for a job going forward. We all know that he won’t be starting in CF next year but there is a chance that he is a good bench bat next year who could platoon with Schierholtz (if they choose to upgrade at 3B instead of RF) who could spell Brown occasionally. He may not have met draft day expectations but he is a solid major league bench player. Players are often bad because they are put in positions that they do not have the skills for and would be positives if put in the correct roles.
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Very well put. Mayberry is what he is, and people should not expect more. Like you said, a fine 4/5th OF and IMO, can also come in at first base and spell Ryan Howard..
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I see this was written before he drove in the only run for the Phils tonight with a homer.
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So now you think Stinkberry Jr. is a good outfielder who will carry the Phillies to the World Series?
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Please take your trolling to Philly.com or some other venue
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“John Stinkberry” …Clever! Where do you come up with this stuff, Anonydouche? If Mayberry was a bust three years ago, how do we account for his .854 OPS in 2011? He’ll never be a big league star, but he’s a useful piece if you play him in the right role.
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Just reading all of the Ruf and Cloyd comments brings up something I heard on the BP Podcast with regards to getting value from prospects. I know we want everyone to be a major league regular and there is always a hole to fill on the big league club. But think of it this way and be excited in a much more reasonable fashion. If Cloyd pitches a big league inning or Ruf gets a big league hit, they have surpassed their value immensely. Anything more is just house money, either of them make the bigs and it is a scouting success by the Phillies. The experts are trashing the excitement that fans have that so and so is going to be a star because of minor league numbers but they would all readily admit that a player drafted as late as one of these guys making the majors even for a week is a huge return on value.
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Again, very well put. You are raking with the logic today.
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Very true. However, few people want to talk about prospects like Clay Condrey.
Prospects with either huge tools (and inconsistent results) or with great stats can be projected to greatness. The path is quite long and difficult. Just think of how many years it will be until Tocci will be a ‘star’. So many things can happen along the way.
Cloyd has shown an ability to pitch and can at least get poor MLB (AAA) hitters out. He may get a few good starts and then it depends on if can somehow be that extraordinary type of player to get by with inferior stuff.
Rosenberg might carve out a long reliever/spot starter role for a few years on the cheap. Like most hard throwers, command will determine his fate.
Definitely two players on opposite sides of the results/projection continuum. Makes it fun to blog about them.
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Rosenberg has a great arm. How do you rate all those great arms better that his. Great-Great-Great. 6 in the top 100 , dreamer. Good to see some logic and reality MattWinks
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For anyone who is interested there’s a Jesse Biddle interview at this site :http://www.975thefanatic.com/teams/phillies/blogentry.aspx?BlogEntryID=10413019
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Sometimes –I think these national prospect pundits are full statistical hot air.. I don’t have the stats to back that up, it s just feeling Of nausea i get ….
I would love to see some of these AA / AAA players that everyone has written off as over the hill at 24/25 yo, get a chance and really succeed in the bigs…
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Some guys have done better. Most of the players you speak of do not make it. I can recall the wildness of wishing Rizzotti to the majors. It is not going to happen, yet it for Ludwig. Who knows? The lower monied teams sometimes help this process. This is not the Phils even though the sell-out streak stopped tonight.
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Mayberry is what he is, yes a fourth or fifth outfielder. my problem is the phillies trying to make him more. they thought at his age and experience he could be the answer in left, anyone who has seen this kid play, knows he cant hit any offspeed pitches, so i blame the phillies for not recognizaion that and forcing the kid into a bad situation.Amaro did such a poor job of finding replacement players for guys like howard who he knew would be out at least until june. and trying guys like qualls in the bullpen, terrible signing. wiggington, cant hit or field. so it is amaro and his scouts who went out and got these players,injuries happen, and you need capable fillins, washington lost a lot of players too, werth ,morse, clippard. two catchers, and others yet they keep winning.washington lost there main closer too,And the really sad part is we have nothing ready in positon players to help.
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Shull was activated off the DL and assigned to GCL yesterday (nice catch, marfis). Hopefully this is more than just a procedural move and Shull will be able to pitch this summer.
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Roccum, this is the prospects area not the General Discussion so can you keep your rants in there. Did you think players like Halladay, Howard, Lee and Utley (all on DL this year) grow on vines and can be easily replaced? Good Greif!
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this is the prospects area ,lmao morse , werth two catchers there closer, and how many others they lose, and washington hung on to be in f irst so that arguments doesnt hold water.and good grief, some people just think whatever the phillies do is right, have no guts to say the truth in spite of injuries, this team should never be this bad, if amaro got some good fill in players.
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Washington “hung on to be in first” because they have excellent pitching. Their offense is still pretty bad, and only slightly (and by that, I mean 20 runs to this point in the season) better than the Phillies. The reason the Phillies are losing this year is their pitching. The constant harping about this team’s offense and lack of replacements is just a lack of understanding. The team is built on pitching and the guys either haven’t performed as expected (Lee), have been injured (most of the bullpen) or both (Halladay).
In other words, you put last year’s pitching performances on this year’s team, even with the lack of “good fill in players” on offense, and they are winning.
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HOGWASH
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Nah he’s right.
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Plus Utley and Howard’s absence through the first half had a bearing on the results.
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