Around the System–Lower Half, OF

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A look at the Lakewood, WIlliamsport, and GCL outfield.  Plenty to talk…See the details below.

Lakewood (stats thru 7/31)

Miguel Alvarez, 22, Signed as a free agent in 2007; .205/.242/.240 in 146 AB’s between Lakewood and Clearwater; 0HR 8 RBI; 6SB; 4%bb/27% k rates. 37 games in the OF with 4 errors (.957); 4 OF assists. Alvarez really struggled in his 100 plus AB’s in CLearwater, striking out in nearly one-third of his plate appearances, so back to Lakewood he went.

Kelly Dugan, 21, Phils 2nd round pick in 2009; .286/.373/.475 in 318 AB’s; 10HR 48 RBI; 4SB; 10%bb/26% k rates; .262 vs. LH, .299 vs. RH, .344 with RISP. Hit .374 in July.  52 games in the OF with 2 errors (.981); 2 OF assists; Has also played 25 games at 1B with 4 errors (.981); Dugan has really come on over the last month hitting for both average and power.

Diego Gonzalez, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2009. 212/.222/.212 in 52 AB’s between Williamsport and Lakewood; 0HR 6 RBI; 7SB. 20 games in the OF with 1 error (.962); Too small a sample size to judge.

Brian Pointer, 20, Phils 28th round pick in 2010; .238/.347/.413 in 332 AB’s between Williamsport and Lakewood; 10HR 52 RBI; 11/16 SB; .178 vs. LH, .253 vs. RH, .283 with RISP; 12%bb 30%K rates.  85 games in the OF with 8 errors (.954); 2 OF assists. Pointer has shown some promise this year but a huge strikeout rate and struggles against lefties have inhibited sustained success.

DL: Kyrell Hudson, 21, Phils 3rd round pick in 2009; .224/.277/.297 in 219 AB’s; 1HR 21 RBI; 23SB; 4%bb/32% k rates; .364 vs. LH, .123 vs. RH, .224  with RISP; Hudson hit .313 in June before tearing a tendon and ending his season.  51 games in the OF with 4 errors (.968); 4 OF assists. His injury and strikeout ratio make a return to Lakewood to start 2013 likely.

DL:Aaron Altherr, 21, Phils 9th round pick in 2009; .257/.333/.402 in 358 AB’s; 7HR 46 RBI; 25SB; .308 vs. LH, .232 vs. RH, .228 with RISP; Hitting .275 since June 1 before injuring his leg last week.  9%bb/23% k rates. 81 games in the OF with 1 error (.996); 8 OF assists; Altherr is a couple of weeks away from returning but looks ready for CLearwater next year.

DL: Gauntlett Eldemire, 23, Phils 6th round pick in 2010; .227/.351/.326 in 233 AB’s; 2HR 18RBI; 18SB; 14%bb/24% k rates; .225 vs. Lh, .229 vs. RH, .231 with RISP.  69 games in the OF with 2 errors (.987); 2 OF assists. Eldemire has missed close to the last month with a stress fracture in his leg and has been persistently injured over the last couple of years.  He is currently rehabbing in Clearwater. He has the “high draft pick” label going for him, but his last chance may be next season.

Williamsport

Larry Greene, 19, Phils 1st round pick in 2011; .272/.379/.381 in 147 AB’s; 2 HR 20 RBI; 1SB; 15%bb/26%k rates; .325 vs. LH, .252 vs. RH, .244 with RISP.  42 games in the OF with 3 errors (.964); 3 OF assists. Greene has performed well, showing a good eye and knocking in runs early on.

Kyle Hoppy, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2012; Hitting .105 in 19 AB’s with Williamsport.  7 games in the OF without an error. Just signed two weeks ago.

Yan Olmo, 21, Signed as a free agent in 2009; .231/.254/.292 in 130 AB’s ; 0 HR 7RBI; 5SB; 0%bb/18% k rates.  .226 vs. LH., .232 vs. RH, .174 with RISP; 34 games in the OF with 2 errors (.977); 3 OF assists. Talk about free swingers…Olmo has not walked in his first 130 AB’s with WIlliamsport.  Not providing much offensively at all.

Zach Taylor, 21, Phils 12th round pick in 2012 draft; .179/.239/.328 in 64 AB’s; 2 HR 6 RBI; 9%bb/33%K rates. 11 games in the OF with 3 errors (.880); 1 OF assist. Not pretty thus far.

GCL

Dylan Couzens, Phils 2nd round pick in 2012; .267/.374/.438 in 105 AB’s; 2HR 14 RBI; 7SB; 15%bb/26%k rates; .179 vs. LH, .299 vs. RH, .250 with RISP.  26 games in the OF with 2 errors (.955); A nice start, although he has slowed dowen as of late and troubling numbers against lefties.

Steven Golden; 17, Phils 13th round pick in 2012; .257/.297/.286 in 35 AB’s; 0HR 2 RBI; 2SB. 11 games in the OF with 1 error (.900)

Johnathan Knight, 19, Phils 49th round pick in 2011; .154/.214/.308 in 26 AB’s; 1HR 1RBI. 12 games in the OF without an error, 1 OF assist.

Andrew Pullin, 18, Phils 5th round pick in 2012; .338/.436/.463 in 80 AB’s; 2HR 8RBI; 2/6 SB’s; 8%bb/20%k rates; 21 games in the OF without an error; 1 OF assist.

Herlis Rodriguez, 18, Signed as a free agent in 2009; .185/.250/.259 in 54 AB’s; 1HR 7RBI. 24 games in the OF with 3 errors (.875); 3 OF assists.

Carlos Tocci, 16; .333/.393/.370 in 54 AB’s; 0HR 9RBI; 6SB. 22 games in the OF without an error.  1 OF assist. Producing early on.

Jiandido Tromp, 18,.173/.241/.360 in 75 AB’s; 2HR 11RBI; 1/5 SB; 7%bb/33%k rates. 24 games in the OF without an error.  1 OF assist.

63 thoughts on “Around the System–Lower Half, OF”

  1. Cozens, Pullin and Tocci apparently will get a lot of play and pub going forward as the hopefuls.

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  2. Out of these guys here is how I rank my excitement level:

    1. Cozens
    2. Dugan
    3. Tocci
    4. Larry Green
    5. Pullin

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    1. #1 – Tocci
      #2 – Dugan

      Tocci is showing incredible skills for a skinny 16 year old (as Ben Badler tweeted out almost verbatim). Dugan is only 20 and the power has certainly shown up this year. An ISO of .189 and a 10% bb rate are fantastic signs given his age and level.

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    2. For me would be

      Tocci (age vs level)
      Green
      Pullin
      Dugan
      Cozens (K rate is massive and now the BAPIP is normalizing, avg dropping – tons of potential, though I think he’s the least likely to be what we hope)

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        1. If what Pullin stated after he was drafted (that the Phils will convert him to 2b), then he is certainly higher than Cozens.

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          1. Agree with jmb, and Pullin wasn’t the only one who mentioned the move to second. This a quote from Benny Looper in an article Paul Hagen wrote in early July about the prospects in the GCL: “Pullin is a baseball player. He’s got good tools. We worked him out at second base prior to the Draft, and we’re playing him in the outfield right now. But we’ll also work him into games at second to see where his future is.”

            http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20120702&content_id=34320616&vkey=news_phi&c_id=phi

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        2. For me, it’s not about today, but where someone may project. Pullin is almost exactly 3 years younger than Dugan. Their GCL stats are not even remotely comparable, Pullin blows him away. Dugan spent 2 years in Williamsport ( I know, injuries) with middling success. I agree he’s having a great year and is maybe back on the radar.

          I just think, based on their performance at similar age and level, I’m more optimistic about Pullin. I don’t think it’s ridiculous to have somone consider Pullin over Dugan. I’d imagine you would find many that do and maybe many that don’t. If it is split down the middle, wouldn’t surprise me, just don’t understand how you can’t at least consider Pullin over Dugan, it is in no way a slam dunk.

          And that is without taking in consideration a move to 2b as jmb mentioned.

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    3. 1. Larry Greene
      2. Carlos Tocci
      3. D Cozens
      4. A Pullin
      5. K Dugan

      Really not excited by Dugan at all, and would place Altherr at #5 and Pointer at #6 if they were a choices. This is Dugan’s 4th season, and he is a corner OF/1B. At best, he is doing what should be expected of him in Low A.
      For perspective, Dugan was a 2nd round pick in 2009 and is in Lakewood. Tommy Joseph was a 2nd round pick in 2009, and is a catcher at Reading.

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        1. I know that. He also plays a premium position, and steals bases. I believe this makes Altherr the better prospect.

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            1. Why would he have to steal 1B?

              Altherr has a .333 OBP, which is fine for a CF in that league. He’s also 25 for 32 in Stolen Bases and his OPS is fine for a CF in the SAL. Dugan is the better hitter at this point, but if he is a future 1B or LF, he is not a better prospect than Altherr.

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            2. From reports I’ve read, its more likely that Dugan stays in RF than Altherr stays in CF. Though I like AA, I just need to see some better production at this point.

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      2. Not really sure how after almost 1,200 MILB ABs, and sporting a a .256/ .314/ .370 there is anything to get excited over with regards to Altherr. As its also Altherr’s 4th season I’d argue he’s not ever doing what should be expected of him at Low-A.

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        1. Because, like Dugan, he’s shown a lot of improvement this year. He’s got the tools, now maybe some of it’s starting to come together. Aside from an awful May he’s had an over .800 OPS in each month. It’s taken him a little longer than we would have hoped to get to this point, but it’s good anytime a guy shows that kind of improvement.

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        2. I’m not excited by Altherr (or Pointer) either. I think it is a long shot that Altherr could be a MLB regular. But I’m even less excited by Dugan, because he will have to hit a ton, to become a major league player, because of his defensive position and his secondary skills.

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        3. Just to remind people we are talking about players that would have been juniors in college this year and from what I see most of the college draftees are playing in SS. So if you consider that, Dugan and Altherr doing quite well in my humbled opinion btw both have better numbers then Collier had last year.

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          1. Just because Dugan would’ve been a draft eligible junior this year, and he is playing in Lakewood, doesn’t mean he is an exciting prospect. (That was the original statement). It means he is farther along than guys like Cris Serritella.

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    4. 1. Dugan
      2. LGJ
      3. Tocci
      4. Pullin
      5. Cozens

      I think we forget about sss when looking at the GCL because the season is so short. Pullin has 80 ABs, Cozens has 105 and Tocci has 55. Can we slow our role a bit with these guys?

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      1. The initial post was only about excitement level, who we look for each day and why. No one is saying these guys are going to be stars.

        As for SSS, I agree … Dugan has a much higher samlple size and it’s mostly not good. So I’m not sure where the excitement is for him as well. Need to see more for my excitement level to increase

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        1. I’m saying it’s hard for me to get excited about a guy who’s 50 ABs into his pro career. Especially when those ABs are in the GCL. 318 ABs in a full season league is at least statistically significant and at a point where we can assume he’s actually improved- and it’s almost twice as many ABs as Dugan’s ever had in a year before.

          If Pullin was hitting .250 without much power, people here wouldn’t be so excited about him, when really it wouldn’t make much difference.

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          1. Personally, it’s hard for me to get excited about a guy (Dugan) who is referred to ‘a fourth outfielder at best’ by a majority of the national media scouting reports. The new and shiny toys are always going to be more exciting because their flaws/limitations haven’t yet been exposed.

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            1. I really haven’t seen any scouts opinions on Dugan since he was drafted. I’d be curious to hear what someone who’s seen him recently says.

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          2. You can draw valid inferences from a small sample. You just have to do it very carefully.

            For instance, K-rates “stabilize” around 100 PA, but you can still draw reasonable confidence intervals around them after 50. If a guy is striking out at 15% after 50 PA, he’s very unlikely to end the year with a K-rate over 25%, and fairly unlikely to finish over 20%.

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  3. Tromp looks a little better than Rodriguez at the moment. His first couple weeks were brutal. Nice to see a bit of a turn around and some good ISO power. Not much to judge beyond that with still a very small sample for both guys.

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    1. Tromp was striking out about 60% of the time through his 1st 10 games. Since then his nubers are pretty good. 18 years old showing serious power. Even with the terrible start, his ISO is great.

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    2. Tromp….what is the pronuciation of his surname? Not like the ‘Donald’ I assume, or maybe it is.

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  4. Just looked up Kyle Hoppy. Signed at 18 by Orioles, some might think he was signed right out of College off of this. Don’t look like he has ever hit much anywhere, with a .216 the highest BA so far. and a .117 in there, and more around that. Looks like he plays all 3 OF positions, must be quite a fielder.

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    2. Probably someone Joe Jordan knew and liked from BAL org for one reason or another, if I had to guess.

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    3. Just an organizational player who has some experience, won’t make many mental mistakes, but whose upside is highly limited. The promotion of Pointer to Lakewood and the young outfield in the GCL led to this signing.

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      1. Hunh- guess that’s all right. Just looked at the roster, his birthday is about 5 days off from draftee, Zachary Taylor. So, maybe being at that level is not so far out of line age-wise. He improves or he don’t.

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  5. Cozens would appear to be limited to three positions… LF, RF or 1st (AL-DH). And assuming he gains weight and gets stronger then his already NFL-ready body indicates he could have the power to be quite impressive. Perhaps even an Adam Dunn ‘type’ player down the line.

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      1. About as kindly as i can say it — you are delusional if having him be like Adam Dunn, even a lesser version, is a bad thing — 400 career HRs.

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  7. There are plenty of players whom I’m very excited about, but none even close to Carlos Tocci. I know it’s early, but if we talk ‘prospect’ there’s nothing remotely close in our system. Sky is the ceiling right now (there is so much to see in his 60 or so PAs this season). Think big with this kid, and don’t be surprised to see him Top 5 in our system in end of season polls

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    1. Have you seen him in person, and if so what are your thought?

      It seems people who’ve seen him have been very impressed, which is always a good sign.

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      1. Seen Carlos and the GCL Phils 4 or 5 times this year. Carlos doesn’t look like a stick to me, he looks like a 16-yr old (a 6’3” 16-yr old :).

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    2. Easy, he is 17 and was rated the 15th best player in the international draft. So many of those kids have failed. I am also excited but maybe when he is at least 18 or 19 we will be able to evaluate him fully.

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      1. Not meant to over promote by any means, just like what I’ve seen so far. Put it this way, he’ll be in “my” top 5 at end of year for however irrelevant that may be

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  8. I have seen him and he is not the stick figure they talked about earier. But he could use some upper body strengh workouts.

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  9. I know this is off point but has been driving me nuts. The Gaints have 3 catchers in their top ten prospects. Joseph at 3, Susac at 6 or 8 and Sanchez at 10. Posey is locked in at catcher for the forseeable future. Susac is a highly rated catcher w/ the bat and behind the plate. Sanchez is the best of the 3 behind the plate says BA and is projected for 2015 w/ Joseph at 3rd. SF had to unload Joseph because he was blocked. Why did the Phil’s rate him so high? Rube they got you again. I fear management is making trades for the Phil’s, not player development.

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    1. Just because they had several catchers doesn’t mean that they are required to trade one of them to the Phillies. They could easily swap any of those guys for other prospects or players.

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    2. I guess you had not read that they were thinking of switching Joseph at one point, but his improved skills this year persuaded them to keep him at catcher. That is pretty clear to me.

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  11. ha-ha didn’t mean to kill the of talk but it didn’t seem to have legs. Sorry, signing off I’ll see if I can get some answers somewhere else.

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    1. I’ll give you a d answer. You (quoting the BA list) say Joseph is 3, Susac is 6 or 8 (can’t make out the number?) and Sanchez is 10. So, that indicates to me that Joseph is the highest rated of the 3, so Where’s the Beef, and how is that getting Schnookered? And what about the switching of Joseph to 3B for a projection for 5 years from now? They did the same with Valle 5 years back. Don’t see him playing 3rd , do ya? And I believe Amaro is making trades for the MLB team, that’s what they should all be. And trades for player development. who needs that. BA lists- just opinion.

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  12. Does anyone know why Tocci never plays a full game? I asked a while back and the response I got was they are looking at a lot of players. That doesn’t make sense to me since he seems to be the only one being subbed for (or one of the only ones). Hoping to see him play in a few weeks.

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    1. They are subbing for everyone it seems around the seventh inning. They want to see all the players. Look at the box scores.

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  13. Saw L Greene 3 times in the past week and he hit just about every ball to left field (opposite field). I was kind of surprised since he is known to possess very good power. He did show me a lot in the OF with his glove and his arm.

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