Box Score Recap 7-31-2012

Box Score Recap

Sounds like LV is getting some reinforcements – Cesar and Valle are going up from AA apparently, and Diekman and Savery were shipped out after the MLB game last night. Savery did a good job of warming up Juan Pierre in between innings last night, but he did not acknowledge me when I yelled his name as he was leaving the pen for the handshake line. Weak.

As for the games, Brody Colvin made his AA debut last night.  Points for game management, I guess.  9 hits but only 3 runs in 5 innings.  Struck out just 1.

LV  REA  CLR  LKW  WIL Off  GCL  DSL  VSL1  VSL2

172 thoughts on “Box Score Recap 7-31-2012”

  1. Cody Asche absolutely crushing it his last 10 games. Don’t look now, but AA average all the way up to .246. A month ago I would have been thrilled with a .246 BA to end the year. As someone who admittedly doubted the need for his promotion, I’m thrilled to see this kind of rebound from him. What a great story. How bout .280 to finish his AA line

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    1. i think asche has to be considered a top 8 prospect by this point, hes just been to good to consistently for to long after jumping three levels in a year

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    2. Hearing some of his defensive deficiencies is what’s holding me back from giving him top 10 consideration. Perhaps those reports were unfair or caught him on a bad day. But he needs to stick at 3rd and have everyday glove.

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      1. Watched him for a few games when the R-Phils were in Trenton. Only one bad play, otherwise he seemed competent. Not stellar, but competent.

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      2. For what its worth, I saw Reading play in Trenton a few weeks ago, the night Mario Hollands pitched.

        I actually typed up a game report that night and thought I posted it on here, but I must have never hit Submit because it never showed up the following day.

        Anyway, part of what I reported was that I thought Asche looked good at 3B and could definitely stick there and be a major league third basemen. He made a nice diving stop in the hole, got up and made the throw, plus a couple other nice plays to his left where he made good throws across his body, and looked smooth making the few routine plays he got.

        Granted, he wasnt swinging the bat as well at that point, and it was only one game but he really didnt make any good contact that night.

        I think its pretty obvious he cann hit though…

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    3. Asche up to 4/5 now .246
      Franco goes 3/4 now up to .249

      After some early struggles, it would be great if they have really established themselves offensively at their current levels by the end of the season.

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      1. Asche might keep 3B warm before Franco arrives, but its the latter that I see as the 3B of the future. His pop for a 19 year old in the Sally is impressive, and the way he’s hit after struggling for so long early in the year really says something about his makeup.

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  2. Cody Asche still riding that wave and killling it…….

    DeFratus and Aumont still on it also…

    Mitch Gueller decent outing, Kenneth GIles and Cesar H. also…

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  3. Kenny Giles. What to say

    Carlos Tocci. I know it’s a small sample. But go look at his player page on MiLB.com. Check his BA, his BB and K rates. Then look up at the top of the page and notice his DOB. Then look back at his stats. Good find I think

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    1. he is tall but but very young in physical development at only 160 lbs, once he matures and adds strength, look out!

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    2. You just have to hope that nothing bad happens to him physically has he gets older. Ideally he fills out and adds some strength but continues to be fast twitch and a great athlete. The one concern is the unknown, he is only 16 and he has a lot of physical maturing to do and you hope he doesn’t get stiff or slow. It isn’t a knock on him it is just the problem with guessing how a 16 year old will mature.

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  4. There are a lot of good things going on with these players. Hope all finish well and looking forward to next year.

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    1. Got to see him for the first time last night…he’s just filthy out there on the mound. Very violent, physical delivery that makes you cringe a little to watch, but he seriously pounds the mitt. The opposing manager was raving about him after the game, asking me if he was a top draft pick. “Great job by whoever found that guy,” he told me.

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    2. I saw him at Lakewood bake in May. He throws really hard – even his offspeed stuff was fast. Everyone was late on the swings. I don’t really recall there being much movement on the pitches – I didn’t have a great angle though. Wildness is a concern, and he seemed to lose it pretty quickly, but that will likely come around once he gets himself under better control

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  6. I consider 0 walks for Colvin in 1st Reading start very encouraging.
    Never much Natl pub on Asche and mostly cautious comments on these message boards about him, but you cant argue with results.
    Whats happened to Zach Collier?? thought he was going to be one of the great stories of the System coming back from Suspension.

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    1. Who knows with Collier, we may of let a SSS let us get carried away when he was hot. then again the current cold streak is not that big a time frame either, but it does fall in line with his career numbers a little more.

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      1. It seems that Collier has run out of steam temporarily. He’s had a good season and should move up one grade next season. He’s got 2-3 more seasons of minor lg ball to fill out his resume. He’s made enough of a recovery from previous problems to be considered a good pick at an early draft spot. Expect good things from him…including a gain in power.

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        1. I seem to remember him running out of steam last year to, before the suspension news broke of course.

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  8. Does Andrew Pullin have good power and does any one have a scouting report on him or Cozens, Zach green, and Carmona

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  10. All – if you are on Twitter and you want to follow me I will try to retweet any transactions today as quick as I spot them. Gailey says on Twitter he’s been released, according to Mike Drago from the Reading paper. I am @bxe1234 And you can find Drago and Mitch and any number of other writers and players if you check my following list.

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  11. I still find it hard to be that excited by low level guys because they just have so far to go, but a number of the GCL guys are having impressive seasons for a poor hitters league.
    Pullin (who might move to 2B), Green (SS to 3B), Cozens from the draft class.
    Astudillo (Phillies need to keep him at C as long as possible, even if to trade him as ‘hitting C’), Tocci (especially if he can get promoted one level per year), and Mora who I know nothing about.

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    1. Carlos Tocci, the odds are will start in XST next year and then go to Williamsport, but there is an outside chance (~30%) he starts at Lakewood depending on how his winter and spring progress.

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      1. Remember, they started Domingo Santana in Lakewood after his GCL season. Yes, he struggled and went down to Williamsport, but there is precedent for them doing that. I think it depends on his make-up. If they think he can handle it, you will see him in Lakewood to start the year.

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  13. Kevin Goldstein’s updated Top 50 came out today, the ranking is at least 2-3 weeks old so keep that in mind.
    The only Philly is Trevor May at 46 which seems high but I am not going to argue with it.
    Former Phillies: 8. Travis D’Arnaud , 40. Singleton , 42 Gose : Nothing surprising there, Goldstein is always low on 1B prospects because their value is all in the bat. D’Arnaud is a major league ready catcher and Gose is in the bigs.

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    1. In the comments he said the list was compiled in early July, and implied that were he doing the list today, May would probably not be on it.

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  14. Interesting how last year at this time the big criticism of the Phils system was that all the prospects were in the low minors and that there were very few position player prospects to speak of, and none in the upper reaches of the minors. If we ignore the disaster that is the big league club this year, and ignore the acquisitions during the season for Thome, Victorino, and Pence, the upgrade in the Phils minor league system this year I think has been a real nice development.

    For position players, I feel strongly that both Galvis and Brown will officially graduate this year and offer strong promise for the big league team for years to come, in different capacities. Other position player prospects that have either taken a leap forward, or established themselves with their start, would include in no particular order Asche, Rupp, Cesar H, Castro, Walding, Quinn, L Greene Jr, Valle (considering his age), Tocci, Cozens, Green, Ruf, J James (considering his conversion and knee issue), Franco, and Dugan. This leaves the Phils with 8 position players in AA, AAA, or now MLB that could play a role on the 25 man roster in the next couple of years. While of these 8 I would only consider 3 (Brown, Galvis, Cesar) to have all star potential, the others could contribute either as bench players or possibly starters in some cases, I believe the lower minors are now filled with guys with big upside potential – Franco, Tocci, Walding, Quinn, Cozens, L Greene Jr. Then when you add in a guy like Tommy Joseph, the potential is even greater. I really think the position player potential in the system today is much, much greater than it was last year this time.

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    1. Hard to argue with your last statement. Amazing what one year can do for an outlook … let’s just hope a few of them follow the trail and become legit.

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    2. On the whole, the system is the deepest it has ever been, by quite a large margin. It may not be high in major league ready elite prospects, but it is chock full of guys with potential in every possible area of need (starters, relievers, infield prospects, catching prospects, outfield prospects – all are deep) and, as a result, the team is playing the lottery the right way. The starters are a perfect example of this. There are probably 6-8 guys who have the upside of a #2 or 3 starter. That’s an awful lot. And there are relief pitchers galore. We are not seeing all the results yet at the major league level, but the job they’ve done of acquiring talent is pretty impressive.

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      1. The system is silly deep in starting pitching, though a fair number of these guys 1) are likely mid-to-back of rotation, and 2) some will inevitably flame out. For example, I keep a spreadsheet of my roster projections for the upcoming year (yes, super dork). While there is some question on how Garner and May finish the year, if they show improved control, this is my projection for next year:

        LHV: Pettibone, May, Martin, Rodriguez, Cloyd
        REA: Biddle, Morgan, Colvin, Wright, Garner

        That’s a boatload of talent that isn’t too far from the majors. This doesn’t even consider Gueller, Watson, or Brady. Or if they keep Rosin in the rotation, like I hope.

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      2. I agree that in some ways its a very deep system but the reality is that there are no guaranteed MLB players in our system right now…no real blue-chippers. There are plenty of guys that MIGHT be that in a couple years if they continue to develop but its so ridiculously hard to project a guy in Low A ball (and below) into that type of roll.

        I think there is the potential for us to be an elite farm system again in the next 3-4 seasons but it will take a couple more solid drafts as well as a minimum of trades for MLB players. I look forward to seeing what they do with our #1 pick next year as it will be our first Top 10 pick in a long time (assuming we play about the same level of baseball that we have up until now).

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        1. nepp – Don’t you think this is more a result of where the team has drafted for the past 5 years though? It seems like most of the sure bet prospects come at the top of the 1st round, and finding the diamonds in the rough tend to have improved odds the higher you pick in each round? Obviously Trout is one exception to this but he is just that, an execption.

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          1. Draft position doesnt help by any means but there have been occasions where they have gone with the easy sign guy instead of spending big in the draft and it has hurt them.

            Jesse Biddle over Nick Castellanos comes to mind as an example of this phenomenon.

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            2. The guy who will sign for the Phillies price, is always the guy most likely to be taken by the Phillies, but that doesn’t mean the high priced guy is always the best talent.
              Taijuan Walker signed for less than Biddle, but is rated as high as Castellanos. You never hear anyone crying because the Phillies passed on Taijuan Walker (who cost less), just the same 2-3 guys complaining about Castellanos to make a point.
              Why don’t I ever hear anyone complaining about the Phillies taking Biddle over Anthony Ranauldo?
              Hindsight is a beautiful thing.

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            3. Why is anyone complaining we picked Biddle at all? He has been nothing but great so far. I could see if we picked Hewitt over these guys but we got Biddle and he’s looking pretty darn good.

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            4. The aftermath of the 2010 draft, all that was written on the board was how great the Red Sox draft was, because they got got Renauldo in the supplemental round, while the Phillies ‘cheaped out’, and took Jesse Biddle. Now Biddle is a better prospect than Renauldo, and that is conveniently forgotten.

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            6. Yeah, well I recall the same 5-6 guys who wanted the Phillies to select Castellanos, wanted Renauldo too.
              So they were geniuses in one case of wanting to pay 3mil, but would have been fools in the other case, right? And the Seattle Mariners would have still been smarter than the Phillies or you and the 5 guys, because they took Taijuan Walker.

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            7. They also all wanted Stetson Allie. Who is now a position player. Or Wojo. Or Wilson. I was bored so I read the 2010 draft thread.

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            8. Yeap. Forgot about him. Stetson Allie was the other one, and he’s terrible. But the Phillies would have been middle of the pack in Spending.
              Right?

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            9. Anonymous VOR,

              Your statements are compeletely one sided. The great irony is that fans get all excited about how the Phillies are now spending money at the MLB level after years of not spending…because we all recognize the obvious competitive advantages that money brings. The more you have to spend the more chances you have to succeed. It is the basic economics of MLB.

              But here…on a website dedicated the Phillies farm system no less…some posters, maybe you fall into that category as well…refuse to even budge or admit even a little bit that more money spent in the draft and LA over all those years might have helped the Phillies to find better prospects…and that might have translated into even more success at the MLB level…and maybe, just maybe, it might have even led to an extra WS.

              For sure I suspect it would have led to better prospects on the farm right now, ready to help in 2013 and 2014. As it is we are going to have to wait for what looks like very strong 2011 and 2012 draft classes to develop.

              It is weird how the Phillies almost MLB low Draft and LA spend from 2007 thru 2011 gets passionately defended on this site by some. A site about the farm system. And this MLB low spend gets defended even at the same time RAJ was trading away the heart of 7 years worth of drafts for MLB veterans.

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            10. Nobody…no offense, but your argument is just as one sided. There is also the chance that maybe, just maybe, spending more money would have made things worse because they had a ton of money locked up in 1-2 guys that didn’t pan out/were injured. I’m not saying it is likely, I’m saying that it is certainly a possibility. As for the Latin American signings/money spend, the fact that a majority of folks that are in the industry love the Phillies approach is something that you fail to recognize. Spending $3M on one 16-year old kid is not always smart. Pull up a list of the $1M+ players from LA sometime and look at the names. Less than 20% of them are names you’ve ever heard of or will hear of. Even fewer will have an impact or have had an impact at the major league level.

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            11. Hindsight? There were 5 or 6 of us talking about Nick Castellanos for a month before the 2010 draft. He seemed like a no brainer fit. And the Phillies spend in 2009 was at the bottom of MLB. So they had the money in 2010 to do it. You would have hoped they learned from their past mistakes when they passed on Mark Teixeira in 2001 because of money. But they didn’t.

              This isn’t anything against Biddle. I like him and liked him in the draft. But I would trade Biddle for Castellanos straight up and not even think twice about it.

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            13. Greg A,

              I appreciate your comments. Yes, spending more money would mean bigger and more expensive flameouts. And spending more money isn’t a gurantee of success.

              But if you have good scouts and a well organized and well run minor league system…like I believe the Phillies did and still do (even without Mike Arbuckle)…I fail to see how spending more money would have had any downside. There is no greater return on investment than the MLB draft. Just one Mark Teixeira success story would pay for 20 guys who got $1M or $2M each to sign but failed. I’ll gamble on those odds in the draft any day of the week.

              I am not aware of any monetary, mathematical, or WAR justification for spending “less” money in the Draft. Certainly no justification for intentionally, by choice, spending at the bottom compared to the rest of MLB. It just seems penny wise and pound foolish for the Phillies to have spent for so many years in the Draft and in LA like they were a smallest market team in MLB. I would even dare suggest that this factor alone may have cost them a WS somewhere in the last 10 years.

              And about the Phillies approach in LA that supposedly gets so much credit…in 15+ years they have developed how many stars from there again? Chooch obviously. At $8K or whatever he was an absolute steal. Great find. But what other impact players from LA have the Phillies found and developed since the mid 1990’s? I am talking about guys that make a real difference at the MLB level. Tocci is looking good early on…but they had to spend $750+K on him. Maybe Domingo Santana $330K or Freddy Galvis $90K? Still neither has made an impact at the MLB level yet. There are other names that come to mind, but no real stars yet outside of Chooch. So where is the cause for celebration for the Phillies approach when it comes to Latin America? Shouldn’t we be results oriented and not swayed by feel good stories about how hard Sal Agostinelli works down there?

              In almost every example, better talent costs more money. Yeah, the big bonus babies fail too. But their ceiling is usually much higher too. So when they do succeed, they tend to do so in spectacular fashion.

              For years thru 2011, the Phillies should have been spending an extra $2M to $3M per year in the draft. There was no good argument for them not to be doing that. I believe it was a strategic failure on their part. That would have been true even if RAJ didn’t trade away 7 years worth of draft prospects. The fact that he was…and they still spent so little…is unexcusable to me. Everybody looks for reasons why they haven’t been able to get over the top and get one more WS but this factor is ignored.

              I personally don’t think it is going to be easy to buy wins via Free Agency over the next 3-4 seasons before the 2011, 2012, and hopefully 2013 draft classes can start to provide some help.

              We’ll see.

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            14. Regarding LA, I think (again, *I* think) that their goal has always been not to spend on the stars there because the flameout rate is so much higher. They are shooting to try and find the diamond in the rough who can be the complimentary piece, or at least they did in the past. Antonio Bastardo comes to mind. They were risk averse in LA, and I don’t necessarily disagree with the approach based upon results of all 30 teams.

              Where I think you and I agree is that if that is your goal in LA, then you better hit more homeruns during the draft in NA. Agreed that spending more money would allow them to do that. What I’d be most interested in is where the Phillies ranked in draft spend from rounds 2-50 in the old system during the time frame we are discussing. I honestly don’t know those numbers, but feel that they would give a better feel for the team’s philosophy during the time.

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          2. The Philies spent at the bottom of MLB in both the draft and in LA in 2009 and 2010. Their draft spend from 2007 thru 2011 was bottom 5 in baseball.

            The Phillies passed on every player in the draft during that period that wanted more than $1M to sign outside of Round 1, or even at the bottom of Round 1 in some cases. Some of those guys are looking like future MLB stars.

            The Phillies might have upped their MLB budget to one of the biggest in baseball, but they ran their farm system budget like they were the smallest revenue team in baseball.

            Fortunately the scouts seem to do a great job picking good players. One can only wonder what those scouts could have done with even just a middle of the pack spending commitment.

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            2. Absolutely. As a Phillies fan I am thrilled with the new system from a financial perspective. It helped bring the rest of the pack back to the Phillies neighborhood.

              Now the Phillies are not operating under the competitive disadvantage they were in the MLB draft, and especially in Latin America.

              The new draft system / budget is better for the Phillies than almost any other team in baseball. They have a good minor league system and good scouts. Now they can compete on budget too.

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            3. Greg A,

              Responding here because of space limitations. But that is a fair point about Rounds 2 thru 50. I am not sure how to get those without putting the effort into subtracing the combined 1st round sighing bonuses of each team from 07-11 from their overall spend.

              But I do agree that might provide more granularity into the numbers and might provide a better basis for benchmarking the Phillies spend to the rest of MLB. I’ll think about pecking away at that.

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            4. I vaguely remember reading an article about that at one point and remember being disappointed there as well. Research may already be done, I just don’t recall.

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    4. I think every organization has players like Asche, Rupp, Cesar, etc. These aren’t top 100 prospects. As for Walding, Greene, and others, they are WAY too young to project. Overall, the Phillies have a depleted farm system with 0 blue-chip prospects.

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      1. You would be correct on that first bit. Every system has a bunch of intriguing non-sure thing guys that might develop.

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    5. And IMO, neither Galvis nor Cesar has the potential to be an all-star, let alone a slightly above replacement level player. Additionally, Ruf is not a prospect.

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  15. Taking note of failure to trade for a third baseman, we gotta see that the FO is putting its future 3rd baseman plans in the person of Asche. As we know, he’s traveled up from “nowhere” in this season to AA Reading where his bat obviously is “adjusted” to the challenge.

    Though his defense is lagging behind, his work ethic (according to reports) is off the charts: First to arrive to work and last to leave. IMO, the FO sees him as their MLB 3rd baseman sometime next season…probably following a trip to the AFL this October.

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    1. It’s a stretch at first, but once you consider the other options . . . 1 more year of Polanco? Very few options unless you are going to get Headley (which I’m not a huge fan of). So it’s a little more plausible than I wish it were

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      1. Not a chance in hell that Polly is back as a starter. He’s finished as an MLB regular. There’s far more chance of them going with Galvis (or Rollins with Galvis at SS). There are a bunch of other options that dont include Polly. None of them are ideal but they’re all better than Polly.

        Sorry to bring MLB stuff to the boxscore thread.

        As a Cody Asche booster, I’m loving his recent efforts.

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    2. We’re in deep trouble if Asche has to play 3rd for us next year. His defense and plate discipline still need work and he doesn’t have much power. I like him as a prospect, but he needs more time.

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          1. If he were to finish AA very strong this year and absolutely hit the ground running hard next year, its a possibility for such a callup. Just not very likely.

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  16. My boy Kenny Giles is must see TV. If he can keep the walks to a minimum, watch out. Maybe a young Goose Gossage in the making.

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  17. Duffy making a strong push for a Golden Sombrero last night…. ouch.

    Asche continuing to rake. Like that Colvin didn’t walk anyone – guess they were too busy hitting?

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    1. Seriously, if this kid can put on some weight/ muscle – look out.

      Of course he’ll probably be the PTBNL the next time Rub decides to trade for a league average RF….

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    2. Impressive. With his age/size, he’s not going to get a low of XBH at this level, so its nice to see them when it happens.

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    3. IF and and I have a few big IFS. IF he opens at Lakewood next year and performs at a similar level as this year he’ll be a BA top 30 player in the 2014 preseason rankings. Lot of IFs but it’s fun to dream esepcially since our system is devoid of blue chip position players.

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    5. Baseball America has a front page story on Tocci right now, but it is for subscribers only, so I can’t read it. Anybody with a subscription able to give us a high level overview?

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    1. I know its only the GCL but this kid continues to show promise at the plate. He already has a pro size body and from what I hear he has an incredible work ethic. Continued development on defense will only help him when grading these new prospects. So far I like what I see.

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    2. I can’t wait to see the GCL top 20 prospect list, at the end of the year. The Yankees raked last year, and had 3 position players in the top 10. The Phillies have a chance to get 4 position players into the top 20. That would be spectacular, because that wouldn’t even include Watson and Gueller.

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  21. Watson has yet to debut, correct? Anyone know when this may happen? And is Shull coming off the DL this year?

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  22. Tocci Article by BA: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/prospect-bulletin/2012/2613819.html
    Summary: Overall he is one of the most impressive players in the GCL, considering he is the 4th youngest player in professional baseball (including VSL and DSL). Scouts rave about his hit tool and ability to use the whole field. Plus-Plus speed which is combined with good base running instincts. The defense was compared to Galvis at that age and he apparently could be an above average defender at the major league level right now but is continuing to hone his craft out in CF during batting practice tracking fly balls and working on getting a good jump on them. The only negative is the lack of power but any judgement on that should be withheld until he fills out.

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    3. I was not aware he had Plus-Plus speed. I figured it was above-average to plus because he’s in center, but dang. Now I’m more excited than before about his potential.

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  23. Hey, not to be off topic here but given general being hijacked by WIP I felt this was the best place for this question…yeah, so I got to thinking about BABIP… and I guess i’m having a hard time reconciling baseball players who maintained extremely high averages over their careers.

    We typically assume a player with a BABIP over about .330ish is lucky, and certainly anything approaching .360 is unsustainable. But how do you take a player like Ty Cobb who has a .366 career average over a statisically significant data set (24 seasons) and say he was just “lucky”?

    I know speed and power can impact BA significantly but not to that degree and certainly not over such a long period of time.

    In Cobbs case speed was a big part of that, but as important as speed was for him, he was equally inept in the power department. Additionally, in the last 8 years of his career he didn’t manage more then 23 SB’s in any given year so clearly the speed decreased dramatically even though he continued to maintain a very high BA.

    Just trying to get a further understanding of the use of this stat. Thanks for those that help answer it.

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    1. BABIP actually doesn’t count for homeruns.. only for balls in play, so BABIP plays a bigger role for guys that don’t have much power. Speed helps with BABIP as even 10 extra infield singles can make a big difference. The other biggest factor is line drive rate. Hitters on average hit over .800 on swings that produce a line drive.

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      1. Right, but it could explain why his BA was so high becuase it does contribute there (though in cobbs case, he didn’t hit many HR’s at all). Good point on LD%… i’ve got to spend some time looking at LD rates for our current players to get a better understand of what league average is and what the standard deviations are? (a lot to ask I know but it would really help!)

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    2. From my (albeit limited) understanding of the stat, a consistently high BABIP can be sustainable if the player has an unusually high LD% (ability to hit the ball hard, not necessarily for home runs) and/or great speed. Those two things together and you get a guy like Cobb or Ichiro in his prime.

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    3. Once in a generation talents like Cobb dont really fit into the norms. And he didnt hit very many HRs.

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        1. Career .350 hitter? I doubt it. With the bullpen being so specialized and matchups, the odds are really against it. You would need a supreme contact hitter that sprays the ball over the field. He would need a good eye at the plate and the speed to leg out infield hits. Think Ichiro in his prime, that would be a start.

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        2. No…not a chance in hell. I could see a guy getting close to that but the inevitable decline period in his career will drop him down. Tony Gwynn was pretty close for a while but even he puttered out into the .330s (IIRC)

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    4. Things that can affect BABIP that can cause it to be higher or lower than league average:
      – The defensive ability of players of the era, each time period is going to have different BABIP, and even when evaluating pitchers a good defense behind them can lower their BABIP
      – Line drive rate, if you are constantly making solid line drive contact your BABIP will be higher which works in the favor of players who may not have a ton of power but can still square a ball up
      – Speed and the ability to get infield hits
      – In this day and age the ability to hit the ball to all parts of the field is important as teams deploy more defensive shifts
      – The ability to induce infield flies or a proneness towards hitting them can dramatically lower BABIP because they are almost guaranteed to never turn into hits

      The most important thing though is to realize that there are always outliers and that doesn’t mean they are “lucky”, some players possess skills that cannot be explained by current computer models and statistics.

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      1. Interesting post, your post on defensive shifts explains a significant issue with Ryan Howard. without the defensive shift, Howards career BA would probably be up to .295-.310… and as to LD rate (I commented above about it) does that explain why everyone was in love with Utley’s stroke, very level swing = high LD%?

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        1. Yes, the quick bat line drive swing of Utley is good for maintaining a good batting average , but Utley’s swing also generates power which made him so special when he was in his prime. Brown’s current swing is very similar to Utley’s but he has not shown the in game power yet.

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          1. He showed tons of power in the minors, but the wrist injury really saps power and takes a while for that to come back.

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            1. That was with his old swing which was more uppercut and loopy. To deal with his hole against velocity inside they shortened up his swing earlier this year.

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            3. It was too loopy and slow and major league pitchers could beat him inside with good velocity, it isn’t something that shows up on the minor league level as much because few pitchers have the velocity and command to jam a hitter inside, but in the bigs when they know how to beat you they exploit it (see Howard and breaking ball away)

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            4. He had a 16% K-rate in the majors in 2011.

              I’m impressed at your ability to diagnose the hole that had evaded all attempts at exploitation by pitchers in AA/AAA and the majors so far.

              But yeah, it never would’ve worked. Good thing they took 1.5 years to teach him a new swing. Hopefully his power comes back.

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          2. Brown has never projected as a classic slugger type. He’s always been more of a 15-20 HR potential guy, not a 25-30 HR guy.

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            1. Originally he wasn’t but it was the power surge in 2010 that catapulted him to a top 5 prospect.

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            3. I think it’s going to take a little time with his re-tooled swing for him to generate big power, but I expect Brown to be an 18-30 homer per year guy, with a .270-295 average and .340–385 OBP. Basically, I expect him to be a 2 WAR player to start with a ceiling of around 5 WAR or so. Roughly, I think we are looking for him, in the not too distant future, to produce runs at a level similar to Victorino or Werth. A very good player, but not quite a star – an occasional all-star. But I doubt he’ll be anything less than a good player and he still has an outside shot of becoming a star.

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    6. There are huge context issues when dealing with a player like Cobb. He played in the deadball era, when bunting was a huge part of the game. He did hit for significant power. He ranks 5th among deadball players in isolated slugging. And the game changed as he got older, speed left the game.

      But I personally don’t think BABIP is THAT important for hitters. The important thing is to recognize that if a batting average is way out of line from an established baseline, it’s probably a fluke.

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  25. Just posted in Jim Callis’ chat today:

    Matt (NJ): Thoughts on Cody Asche?

    Jim Callis: Good lefthanded power, solid bat, gets the job done defensively. Chance to be a big league regular.

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  26. Goldstein and Keith Law are hyping up Ethan Martin on today’s espn podcast, saying he could be a major steal for the Phils.

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    1. Green is doing what I knew he was capable of doing. I watched him play all last summer and was very impressed with his power potential. He played SS and some OF when I watched him play. This kid plays hard and is an absolute animal. Its pretty easy to get excited about him when you see him in person. There has been lots is skepticism due to his BA ranking – obviously the Phillies did their work and knew what they were getting in taking him in the 3rd Rd. Cozens also not in BA ranking. Perhaps Phils know something Jim Callis doesnt.

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      1. I might hate how the Phillies never spent in the draft or in LA, but I really respect their scouts. Overall, considering what they have to work with, I think they get as much bang for the buck as maybe any team in MLB.

        That still doesn’t excuse their pathetic spend all those years…but it has helped mitigate the impact. It could have been much worse.

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  28. I knew Ruf was having a good year but I didn’t realize quite how good until I looked at the league. He leads the league in OPS by almost .050 points. Pretty impressive. I wonder if the Phillies are serious or just blowing smoke when they say they think his bat is ML quality.

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      2. Chris Coste was not signed into organized baseball till he was 27 when he started in AA after 5 independent league seasons. Have to figure that AA/26 stat is wrong. It is rare but it does happen.

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    2. If he shows he can play the outfield from here to the end of the season, there may be an outfield spot open in CBP next year for a rookie.

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    3. It’s really funny how every year one guy in the organization (that is way too old for his level) puts up pretty good numbers and creates this kind of following.
      Keith Law and Goldstein were belly laughing on their podcast today, at the guys who constantly send tweets asking “is Darin Ruf a prospect”. Goldstein said, ‘… and these questions are from Phillies fans… didnt we just go through this with Rizzotti?’ He and Law basically called anyone that thinks Ruf is a prospect, a moron.

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      1. I tend to think that Ruf is different in that 1. He can play first base well 2. Is okay thus far in the outfield 3. Has hit at every level. Not that I think he’s going to be an MLB star, but I think this bodes a lot better than Rizzotti for making it to the show.

        Rizzotti came out of nowhere in one year… couldn’t play first base…

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  30. Moving on . . . Jesse Biddle with a great game today. Man, what a rotation they have with Biddle, Morgan and Wright.

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        1. This organization has done an outstanding job the last 3 or 4 years in assembling and developing starting pitching prospects. Typically when a team has 3 great pitching prospects, 1 of them will deliver, 1 of them will implode, and 1 will be somewhere in between.

          For this team, you have to think the Phils will get at least 1 big time major league starting pitcher from the May, Pettibone, Cloyd group that is in AA and AAA and then at least another from the A – AA group of Biddle, Morgan, Wright, and Colvin. And with a system that has names like Aumont, DeFratus, Bonilla, Giles, and Diekman in the minors we are bound to get 2-3 big time bullpen arms in the next 2-3 years or less in some cases. Good stuff.

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  31. from the jim callis chat today:

    Rich (NJ): Is Joseph ahead of Valle at this point in the Phils fuiture plans?

    Jim Callis: I’d rank Joseph as the Phillies’ top prospect, so in my mind, he should be.
    ——–
    Mountaineer34 (Nowhere): Singleton, Santana, Cosart, and Zied were a much better return than Scheirholz, Joseph, and Cosins right? If you’re a Phillies fan how mad are you that you gave up those prospects for about a year of Pence?

    Jim Callis: Yes, the Phillies gave up a lot more than they got for Pence. I’m not sure why they felt compelled to trade him now.
    ————–
    Matt (NJ): gut call: Any phillies in the top 100 next spring?

    Jim Callis: Tommy Joseph is the closest thing to a lock, and I’m not sure he’s a lock.
    —————-
    Brian (DC): You imply that the Phillies have gotten more for Pence later? Did they make a good deal or a bad one?

    Jim Callis: I would have kept him. If you had to trade him, and that was the best you could do, why not wait until the offseason when teams will have more flexibility and you might have gotten more?
    —————-

    Matt (NJ): Thoughts on Cody Asche?

    Jim Callis: Good lefthanded power, solid bat, gets the job done defensively. Chance to be a big league regular.

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    1. I think the answer to one of Callis’s rhetorical questions is that the Phillies want to get below the salary tax level this year so that they can bust through it next year without paying as much of a penalty (and they don’t need to worry about 2014 because the threshold goes up to $189 million that year and both Utley and Halladay will either come off the books altogether or, just as likely, one or both will accept more team-friendly contracts). I expect this coming off season to be pretty over the top – they will need that to keep the fans coming.

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    2. Callis should stick to prospects. Pence would not have more value in the off-season as an overrated OF on his last year and getting paid 15mil. At least this year a team can use him for a playoff push.

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      1. Hunter Pences value was never going to be higher. He would be labeled a rental if he was traded next season. The Carlos Beltran trade is never going to happen again. Hunter Pence is also no Carlos Beltran

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        1. The original trade for Pence was at his high mark in value; he had a career year and was controllable for 2 more years at a reasonable price. Not to mention, we’re in a CBA that has different draft pick comp associated with it. The rules have changed.

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      1. How are none of the guys we have good enough for the top 100 in his eyes? We have no one worthwhile? Seriously? Biddle, Morgan? Neither of them good enough? Morgan has had a better year this year than May last year and he had May ranked 69. Sure May was striking out more but he was giving up more base runners.

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        1. Callis is just an outlier on Biddle. He will be in every ‘publications’ top 100, despite not making it on a few individual lists.

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        2. Adam Morgan isn’t in AA. Most of the big prospect guys arent easily impressed by college guys, unless they have great tools or they are dominating AA in their 2nd year. I kind of agree with that line of thinking.

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          1. I mean I get it but if the Phillies management didn’t have their heads up their rears he’d already be in AA after that 13 k game. All I’m saying is he had a better year this year than May did last year by a large margin and May was ranked 69 for him.

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            1. Considering they drafted him, signed him, and double jumped him to CLW…I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt at this time. Being a 23 year old starter in AA isn’t old.

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          2. there seems to be a stigma on college pitchers that they cant evolve. It happens all the time and yet every prospect guru who hasnt seen the guy since he was in college just assumes theyve hit their ceiling. Drew Pomeranz did no better than Adam Morgan in high A and I dont think he has any better stuff. But he had pre draft noise and pitched well in college. Boom top 50 prospect who is showing little at the big league level.

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            1. Pomeranz had better known tools, so he was rightly rated higher than Morgan, who is thought to have average stuff. When you have average tools, you have to prove yourself at the higher levels.

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  32. Is Kyle Simon a legitimate prospect ? He is putting up great numbers given the short time he has been here. We could certainly use some quality relievers.

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    1. He was basically a throw in the Thome deal. Ground ball guy, but very little strike out ability. Basically Kyle Kendrick is his ceiling, if that.

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    1. I’m not saying I love the trade but Josph does look to be a nice prospect. He’s been just ok ths year in AA but his stats last year are pretty eye popping. 22 and 95 for a catcher are pretty impressive especially when he can throw as well as he can (48% rate!). I’ll hold out hope that he can become a power hitting catcher. That would mean they can trade Valle in the winter which I’d be ok with if the guy coming back is good.

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      1. I like Joseph, but take anything from the California League with a grain of salt. That is a complete video game league over there. I’m 34 and haven’t played organized ball since HS, and I’d probably could put up a .600 OPS there.

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        1. I actually looked this up. The stadium that Joseph played in is a neutral park. Half the parks in the California League are actually. But, High Desert and Lancaster really make the whole league look bad.

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        2. Even though it’s a hitters league, he still did well relative to the competition. The only catcher in the league last year with a better OPS than Joseph was born in ’86.

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  34. Tim Kennelly pitches 1 inning and gets 2 k’s. Small sample size but he’s already a better pitcher than position player.

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    1. Kennelly can catch, play 1st and 3rd, LF and RF and now pitch. He is truly the jack-of-all-trades. But he’s also the master of none.

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