Trevor May #7 on Baseball America’s weekly hot sheet

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Its been a great start to the season for May, and he has pitched better than I anticipated right out of the gate. Exciting stuff, to be sure.

May has made incredible strides with his control since early in his career—remember, he walked 61 batters in 70 innings in high Class A Clearwater in 2010—and while he’ll never have pinpoint control, his ability to spot his pitches is the focus for May, since there isn’t much doubt that he has the stuff to pile up strikeouts against big league hitters.

54 thoughts on “Trevor May #7 on Baseball America’s weekly hot sheet”

  2. I like it.

    What I don’t like is that it says he will “never have pinpoint control” as if it’s a certainty. But that’s just one of my turn-offs; don’t ever fully discount something that is still possible.

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      1. That would depend on the definition. I’m not saying it’s likely, just that it’s possible. Just a pet peeve of mine.

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      2. The great ones but he’s got the type of strikeout stuff where he doesn’t really need to be pin point.

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  4. Don’t see RAJ trading him because of their need for an addition to their starters when Blanton is gone after ’12 or before with the good chance May will move up to AAA before this season’s end. Hyatt was the guy they were hoping to do well at AAA but he has been disappointing, The other starter who is doing well enough to be considered for ’13 help is Buchanan who forms a duo of very good pitching prospects who could soon move up to join May at Reading making progress quickly and might end up at AAA before season’s end.

    J-Rod and Pettibone are not YET doing well at Reading but need another month or two for better evaluation. Biddle is getting knocked around…like he was last season’s beginning. These guys form the future, along with lefty Wright who should move quickly up through the system and could end the season almost at AAA LV.

    The presently missing offense will have to be revived by the arrival of Howard and Utley (hopefully) and likely Brown before too long.

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    1. As far as soon (end of the year/start of next year) help, why do you think Buchanan ranks ahead of Cloyd? I don’t think Buchanan’s shown anything to suggest he’s ready for the MLB right now, whereas Cloyd is the other pitcher making AA (and AAA in one start) hitters look silly for now. Either way, it’s too soon to say who’s next on the depth chart after May.

      As far as the future, I don’t think we can mention Wright without also giving a nod to Morgan at this point. Those two are putting up drool-inducing numbers so far, and they’re lefties to boot. Do want.

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      1. I agree with Dan about Cloyd looking better at the moment. Cloyd’s interesting, though. He’s always been pretty much under the radar, from his draft (remember how bizarre that pick sounded at the time?) through his past few years. It’s kinda hard to know what the FO really thinks of him.

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        1. I don’t know exactly where the myth serttad, stating the lack of lighting was the reason the Padres received the final 3 games of the NLCS back in 1984. The truth of the matter is the East and West division switched annually, at that point, with who hosted the last 3 games of the 5 game series. The even years were for the NL West. So they had the final 3 games regardless. I remember being so excited when the Cubs were up 3-0 through 5 1/2 innings in game 5. Sutty was cruising along. He had only given up a couple hits. Then it all fell apart.

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      2. Cloyd has yet to walk a batter in 25 innings pitched between AAA and AA. There aren’t words for that. He’s struck out 21 and has a 1.80 ERA between the two levels. Only lower ERA of a starter is Stewart down in Lakewood. (3rd on the list is Buchanan). So I’d say he’s doing a little better then Buchanan right now.

        Speaking of the future. Stewart’s name should also be mentioned.He’s another lefty starter. Same age as Wright and Morgan.Like I said before Lowest ERA of all the Phillies minor league starters right now although he is pitching at a lower level. K and W rates aren’t bad either. He should be called up to Clearwater at some point this season. Just somebody else to keep an eye on.

        All that being said they all only had 4 starts this season so the number will be changing. A lot can change in a month’s time let alone a season’s time.So, hopefully they all have continued success and Biddle and Colvin start to pitch well too.

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        1. Right before our eyes, Wright is becoming a really big deal. I had him at or around the top ten. By the time the season ends, he could be our hottest prospect and Morgan could be right there with him. Are there any reports from Clearwater about Wright’s velocity? The reports on Morgan made it sound like Morgan throws about as hard as Cliff Lee (sitting in the low 90s and touching 93 or so), which is a big improvement from his velocity in college.

          As for Tyler Cloyd, well, good for him, but I don’t take him all that seriously as a prospect. He seems like one of these control soft tossers that can excel everywhere except in the majors. Not impressed – at least not yet.

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          1. Wright and Morgan are going to rocket through the system I said so during the offseason. They know what they’re doing and have gotten really good results so far.

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          2. Yeah I was surprised Wright wasn’t a few spots higher in the last reader top 30 vote. If he keeps this up he’ll be in the top 5 next time.

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        2. , when asked about Sandberg, Quade is a leader, Sandberg is not, he’s quiet. some of these so caleld experts are out of touch.Sandberg the player was quiet, Sandberg the HOF guy who made that great speech is different, Sandberg the minor league manager is different. those are facts. quiet managers don’t get thrown out as many times as Sandberg has if they are quiet. he’s also a good teacher. Quade is not, i say that from his comments last year after the so caleld teaching thing with Castro. repeat, after the teaching comment with the media about Castro.

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  5. Agree Chris, IMO, Wright seems ready to move up. Much like college pitchers from previous seasons such as Vance Worley and Michael Stutes who moved quickly up the Phillies system, so should Wright. The Phillies have no young left handed starters in the system at AA or AAA. For the month of April Austin Wright has shown that he is the best young left handed starter in the Phillies minor league organization. He should vie with Trevor May and Tyler Cloyd of the R-Phillies for the organization’s minor league pitcher of the month for April award.

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    1. I think both are probably ready to move up, only thing I’d like to see is Wright work on his command. 10 walks in 23 innings is a little too much.

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  6. I’ve always had a soft spot for Cloyd, the kid “knows how to pitch”. I know that can be overstated at times, but he’s a guy who has improved as he’s gone up the ladder. And not only that but he’s never walked batters his minor league career bb/9 is 1.9, and it was 1.4 last year. So far 0 walks this year.

    Obviously I don’t think he’s the next Halladay, but guys who don’t walk batters generally do pretty well. If he can keep his K/9 above 6 he’ll have a decent big league career. Here’s a couple examples:

    Doug Fister 88.7 mph fb – 6.07 K/9 – 1.54 BB/9 – 3.02 FIP – 2.83 ERA
    Brandon McCarthy 90.6 mph fb – 6.49 K/9 – 1.32 BB/9 – 2.86 FIP – 3.32 ERA
    Ian Kennedy 89.5 mph fb – 8.03 K/9 – 2.23 BB/9 – 3.22 FIP – 2.88 ERA

    Basically as long as you don’t walk batters, and keep your strike outs over 5 per/9 you can get by with so so stuff, and even succeed.

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    1. I’m not even sure if Cloyd throws as hard as the guys you listed, which is the concern I have. The other thing is that he seems like more of a flyball pitcher. I’m skeptical but I’m rooting for him. He’s always been intriguing from the moment the Phillies drafted him since he wasn’t even in school at the time.

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      1. I’ve wondered about this for a while now: wouldn’t K’s at the higher levels (especially in the MLB) indicate that someone has more than just “average stuff?” I mean, the scale is used to indicate the pitch’s ability to generate an out, and a K is the ideal outcome. A very recent example of my thinking is Worley. I never heard anything about his “stuff” being particularly good (not to say it’s bad, of course), but if he keeps generating the strikeouts that he’s currently generating, doesn’t that mean he’s got above average, maybe even plus, pitches because it generates outs at a high clip? I guess the argument will be made that a lot of his K’s are looking, but that’s fooling a hitter just as much as a swinging strike is.

        The only “justification” I can think of is that the scale is used to determine pitch movement, and deceptiveness is left out entirely. But then shouldn’t deceptiveness be on the scouting scale since that (obviously) has such a huge impact in a pitcher as well?

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        1. I think the key point is that generating Ks in the minors, even high minors, does not always translate to the majors.

          Worley is, of course, now in the majors. If he can maintain his K rate he is going to be a star. Skepticism about him (and even skeptics have been somewhat won over) revolve around doubts that he can sustain that K rate. We have a sample size issue, combined with a suspicion (just that) that hitters are eventually going to make adjustments resulting in a lower K rate for Worley. People support this by pointing to the fact that a dispropotionate amount of Worley’s Ks are on called strikes rather than swinging strikes. (I don’t have an opinion on whether this is likely to be true, but that’s the worry.)

          But yes, aside from pitchers whose BB rates are unacceptably high, a pitcher who can maintain high K rates in the majors is always going to be successful.

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          1. FWIW, over the past 30 years, for pitchers with substantial careers, K/9 8.0 or better, BB rate 3.0 or lower, the worst pitcher was Javier Vasquez. The second worst Zach Greinke.

            But to pull this back to Cloyd, part of the problem is that his K rates have not been all that impressive even in the minors – 7.6/9 for his career, which is meh. It has been higher the last couple of years (though not this year so far, but with a low sample size). Point isn’t that his Ks are a red flag so much, as that they don’t erase concerns about how his stuff will play in the majors.

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            1. LarryM……30 years back data, thats a small sampling size, I would think 75 years would have given us a better indicator….tic.

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            2. Strikeout rates that high are a relatively new thing. Even within the last 30-40 years guys like Gibson and Carlton didn’t strike out 8/9IP for their careers.

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          2. Honest question–can you think of even one pitcher who generated significant K’s in the high minors (AAA) and didn’t generate Ks in the majors if given an extended chance? I really can’t.

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    2. Doug Fister has ridiculous movement on all of his pitches.
      Ian Kennedy has a great Change Up

      I don’t really follow McCarthy that much but I know he was in Japan for a while after looking like a bust.

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  7. From the chat portion of the hot sheet

    Bob (Studio City): Does Trevor May have a #2 ceiling? And is his ETA 2013?
    Jim Shonerd: I would say yes on both counts. He’s got three quality pitches and the ability to repeat. As long as his control is good enough, and it’s been more than good enough so far this year, he’ll go far.

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  10. On Friday I saw my last Thresher game of the spring before I head north, and it was a great game for Austin Wright. He made 86 pitches, 57 strikes, 29 balls with 15 swing and misses(in the 5th he threw 6 straight swing and miss strikes all FBs). He threw 11 curves and 9 change-ups, over 75% of them for strikes. In the first 2 innings his FB was 92-95, but the scout turned off his speed gun until the 6th and 7th when he was 90-93. His only tough inning was the 4th when he got the first 2 outs on 4 pitches, then he walked the #3 hitter on a full count. After he reached second on a steal he scores on a grounder, that I felt should have been handled by Duran, up the middle(1st hit of the game). Next guy hits a seeing eye grounder to right that puts Wright in a little jam, but he gets out of it with a 2-2 curve ball against a left-handed batter for a swinging strikeout. Knigge blew the save throwing 92-94 in his first bad outing of the season. Asche had a real nice game with 3 really solid hit singles against a Lefty who was only throwing 86-88 but had a real good change and breaking ball, kind of reminded me off a Jamie Moyer type of pitcher. I uploaded videos of Duffy, Hewitt and Myers for anyone interested on you-tube at TheGkita.

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    2. gkit…where do you live up north? Are we going to see any reports from Lehigh Valley, Reading, Lakewood, etc.

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      1. I live in NJ, and I usually get to a few Lakewood games each year and see the R-Phils when they come to Trenton.

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    3. Wow!!!!! A left-hander who throws 92-95, misses bats and appears to be big and durable. That is a scout’s dream. Even 90-93 in the 6th and 7th is very good. I would not be at all surprised if Wright gets promoted by early June. The big question is how long is it going to take before Ruben trades him, May and Brown for David Wright. Frankly, this next year and a half we are going to learn how smart or fatally impatient Ruben is. If there is any question about re-signing Hamels, I hold onto Wright and Morgan for dear life. Both are excellent prospects and Wright just might be a potential top of the rotation guy.

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    4. Thanks gkit, you remain The Man. Sorry this is your last CLW report!

      The velocity and pitch mix sounds similar to Wright’s scouting report. I am feeling better about having him at #11 on my Top 30, but I do think that success at A+ for college pitchers doesn’t tell us all that much. We will get more information if/when he pitches at Reading.

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  11. quick question does Brian Pointer have more potential then you guys though and what does he project to become on the mlb level

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    2. Normally I would not adhere to ‘force-feeding’ prospects, but why not take a chance on a low round draft choice like Pointer. He certainly sounds like he has the mental maturity to handle some quick upward mobility, and moving him up to the Threshers in June could prove fruitful. A low risk move iMO.

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  12. oh and does any body know what position Harold Martinez will play at lakewood or just what they would do with him.

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  14. Harold Martinez is starting at first base for Lakewood. He’s another former University of Miam Hurricane.

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        1. H Mart has only 1 start at 3B so far. I hope they do a better job at getting h mart more time at 3rd. Call me crazy but personally i think H Mart is a better prospect than Franco. I think he has a better glove and arm he has power hit a double in everygame so far and is very patient and i think H Mart could be a special player.

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  15. Franco is definatley the 3b in Lakewood. Martinez will probably only see 1 game a week at the most (as Franco has a good glove). Other wise he will play 1b or DH. But I think you might see some changes when Dugan comes back. Martinez goes to Clearwater and Asche (with another 3 hits tonight) goes to Reading.

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    1. Wow–I think it’s really unlikely that Asche jumps to Reading this year–I think they want him to succeed in CLW after the double-jump.

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