Kevin Goldstein releases his Phillies Top 20 Prospects List

Top Prospect Lists

You can check it out here. The scouting reports for 1-11 are behind the BP pay wall, so please don’t copy/paste that stuff here. His one line blurbs for 12-20 are free to read. I’ll add in a one line summary of his thoughts for 1-11, but check BP for the full content.

Four-Star Prospects
1. Trevor May, RHP – 3 good pitches, has improved command, still tends to lose his release point and works high in the zone which is dangerous.
2. Jesse Biddle, LHP – 3 good pitches, inconsistent fastball velocity, needs to focus on repeating his delivery.
Three-Star Prospects
3. Phillippe Aumont, RHP – Huge fastball, still struggles with his mechanics.
4. Freddy Galvis, SS – Defensive wizard, might hit enough to be a regular.
5. Sebastian Valle, C – Good power potential, improving defense, zero approach at the plate.
6. Jonathan Pettibone, RHP – 3 good pitches but no real out pitch right now, looks like a durable #4 SP.
7. Larry Greene, OF – Huge power, huge question marks about the rest of his tools.
8. Roman Quinn, SS – Great speed, good pop for his size, defensive home is yet to be determined.
9. Julio Rodriguez, RHP – He’s a magician.
Two-Star Prospects
10. Maikel Franco, 3B – Good upside as a hitter, good defender but not a great athlete.
11. Brody Colvin, RHP – Bad year, stuff was down, delivery was a mess.

Nine More:

12. Justin De Fratus, RHP: Could pitch in the Philly bullpen this year; ceiling is set-up man.
13. Carlos Tocci, OF: High-profile international sign has plus-plus speed and line-drive swing.
14. Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP: Smallish Dominican throws strikes with three average pitches.
15. Jiwan James, OF: Still as toolsy as they come, but has made little progress.
16. Cesar Hernandez, 2B: Impressive pure hitter, but pressure is on bat due to defensive limitations.
17. Aaron Altherr, OF: Anticipated breakout player collapsed at Low-A, but ceiling is still high.
18. Mitchell Walding, SS: Fifth-round pick is big athlete with plenty of upside.
19. Jake Diekman, LHP: Lefty side-armer with more velocity than most of his type.
20. Perci Garner, RHP: Power reliever who could move quickly with health.

Sleeper is Kenny Giles.

46 thoughts on “Kevin Goldstein releases his Phillies Top 20 Prospects List”

  1. I actually read his comments on Valle to mean he *doesn’t* see the power returning, though notes that some scouts expect to see it in Reading. This would explain KG placing him below Aumont and Galvis; without power, what kind of prospect is Valle?

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    1. He mentioned he has power potential because of his quick wrists and good bat speed, but the power is tough to tap in to because he has zero idea at the plate.

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      1. Sounds about right. If you swing at everything who is going to throw you good pitches to hit?

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  2. The color about Hernandez was a little surprising. Always thought it was his glove and speed that would carry him.

    They were stretching out Perci late last year so there’s still hope that he starts.

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    1. I noticed that. I was wondering if that was due to a mistake and that he never had him ranked as a 5 star, or if he just had second thoughts. I hope it was the latter, because then at least we know he’s closer to 4.5 stars than 4…

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  4. It is a little depressing to not have any 5-star guys, but I guess that’s what happens after lots of trades.

    The only major differences between his top 10 and mine were Aumont much higher and Franco much lower. I also had Austin Wright at #11 which was clearly an overrating at this point.

    Garner is a starter as far as I can tell. Especially after reading Nowortya’s comments on him, I think he will continue to get a chance to start.

    Where did Tyler Greene rank???

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    1. From recent trades:
      1 5-star guy (D’arnaud)
      3 4-star guys (Singleton,Cosart, Gose)
      2 3-star guys (Santana, Villar)

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      1. Speaking of our former “stars,” I went to the Ex-Phillies game today with the Astros taking on the Blue Jays. I got to see Happ, Myers, Singleton, Villar, Gose, and D’Arnaud (definitely 5 stars).

        Give the Phillies credit for selling high on Happ. He looked terrible. It wasn’t just the 3 BB and 5 H; he just looked confused and without confidence. Even the outs were crushed. He’s not a veteran who can afford to experiment with things. He has to use ST as an audition and he took many steps backward.

        Of all the players the Phillies traded away, D’Arnaud will be the one that gets to the All Star game first. He hit a monster HR to left and looked great blocking balls at the plate.

        Gose was safe on a fairly routine ground ball to SS. That was impressive to see. He also stole a base, but got there so quickly he over slid the bag head first and was called out. He can flat out fly. Watching him is like watching Michael Bourne when he was in camp with the Phillies.

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  5. 7 of the top 20 were signed in 2010 or 2011. That strikes me as a lot. Is that different from other teams or do we have an exceptionally high-risk list?

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      1. Yes, I was more asking compared to other teams do we have an exceptionally high number of players signed in the past two years in our top 20. I assume this is the case but didn’t know if someone else out there kept tabs on this sort of thing.

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  7. Yet another talent evaluator that has left Gillies off his “list”.

    Are we as Phillies fans over-valuing Gillies, or is our lack of talent in OF positions pushing him to the forefront for no other reason than he’s a warm body?

    Also not very encouraging review of JJ. Most of us have him in the Top-15 with potential to make progress, while Goldstein believes he’s made “little progress”.

    With these two OF prospects not impressing, seems to open the door for Quinn (and Larry Greene) to shoot up the rankings.

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    1. I think Phillies fans are over valuing Gilles in the extremely small sample size of the first week of Spring Training. The reality is you need to wait until he stays healthy for a few months in MiLB to consider him again.

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      1. I agree with your conclusion, but it’s worded strangely. The talent is genuine. The question is health. The health question is a huge one. A big talent for whom over half his game is built around his legs and whose legs have failed him two years in a row. High upside, low probability. Not the combination of potential/probability you normally have for a guy who began 2010 in AA and isn’t a pitcher. To me, he’s the position player of Mathieson. You see all that talent and he’s performed well in the past, but you just can’t convince yourself that he can make it through half a season without breaking down. That’s why I think the Phillies would be very foolish to start him in cold weather in April. He belongs at CLW until May. It’s not as if he ever tore it up in AA.

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      2. I think you can make a case that a healthy fall and offseason is enough on that front. What I’m waiting on now is to see him shake off the rust and succeed.

        Keep in mind, he’s never shown much success in a Phillies uniform and that came a very long time ago. It’s hard for us to judge what tools he still has after all that time off so that alone is enough to keep him off lists.

        That said, I’m comfortable ranking him. If we can put Greene at #7 for BP power and non-terrible athleticism, then we can easily rank Gillies #14 for speed, defensive upside, and some wiry pop.

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    2. The list was likely compiled before Spring Training, Gillies more than anything needs to prove he is healthy and otherwise he is just another toolsy outfielder

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    3. While I’m an admitted Gilles booster and have been since the trade, it seems odd to me to state he “hasn’t impressed.” SSS or not, he’s held his own in big league camp, shown excellent speed and plate discipline, particularly for a guy who’s been out (with a leg injury!) for the past two years, not seeing any kind of pitching.

      KG’s argument isn’t that he’s a bust, or overvalued by fans, but that right now he’s unrankable because nobody knows if a) he can stay healthy b) what level he’ll start at, and c) how he’ll perform once he gets there. If Gilles gets hurt again or puts up a 600 OPS in Clearwater, that would be a pretty strong indication he’s not gonna make it.

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    4. John Mayberry made little progress before last year, as did Freddy Galvis. Some players, not all, but some see the lights go on at different times. I think his comment about JJ was an assessment of the past rather than a predictor of the future.

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  8. What about Spidale?? Ha Ha career minor leaguer posting .320 averages every year and accepting MVP awards each season.. If I were him I would not even accept the awards.. He’s 30 playing against kids at AA ball every season.. Give up the dream bro

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    1. When you’re a minor league star, you can easily make more money than the vast majority of Americans who are hard at work doing things they hate. Keep in mind, his only marketable skill is probably baseball. And like a lot of these career minor leaguers, he’ll probably go into scouting or managing once he hangs up the cleats.

      In other words, were I him I’d see no reason to quit. He is living the dream, he’s just not earning the big bucks to do it.

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      1. I’d say Spidale probably earns a pittance compared to most Americans. But he’ll probably have a role in a minor league organization when he retires. Spidale is really a useful player to have in the organization. A player who doesn’t NEED playing time, but he can soak it up as the organization needs due to injuries/promotions.

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  9. I’ve generally stopped worrying about the rankings of others. Outside of the most elite talent, everyone’s rankings will differ wildly. If Gillies had been healthy the last 2 years, theres a chance hes a 4 star prospect. But he hasn’t been healthy. You can round out your lists any way you see fit. I’m comfortable gambling on Gillies in my top 20, because if he does stay healthy this year and he shakes off the rust, he’ll be a top 10 prospect next year. I feel okay ranking Austin Hyatt 12th, because I didn’t rank him there at the expense of any can’t miss prospects.

    Different people place emphasis on different things. Its perfectly fine.

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  10. Now Bonilla’s changeup is just “average”. Maybe Goldstein just caught him on an off day, since everything else has indicated that his changeup might be a plus pitch. Although in the end his ranking seems pretty fair.

    I thought it was interesting how high he has Aumont and Diekman. Either he doesn’t think very much of our other prospects or he doesn’t downgrade relievers as much as we do here.

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    2. I don’t think he meant “average” in a derogatory sense. I think he is saying Bonilla has three average major league pitches. Having command of three average major league pitches is a good thing. That would make him a number 4/5 starter, even if none of his pitches improve.

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      1. I would posit that having 3 average pitches is more no. 3 starter upside. Joe B doesn’t have 3 average pitches, KK certainly never approached 3 average pitches. It comes down to command, but I would put Bonilla’s upside as a Jair Jurrjens type, with the likelihood of getting there pretty small, though this year could be huge.

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        1. Joe Blanton certainly does have 3 average major league pitches. As a matter of fact he has 4 average major league pitches. That is the reason, he has been a near 100 era+ starting pitcher for his career. The reason he isn’t a top starter is he doesn’t have a PLUS pitch. If Bonilla achieves the career that Blanton has had, he would take it.
          Kyle Kendrick is another story. He hasn’t had 3 pitches. That is the reason he struggles with LH hitters.

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          1. Well, it’s not certain to me. I would say his FB and slider are clearly below avg pitches.

            No one said anything about having Blanton’s career or not, but I will leave it up to Mr Bonilla as to whether he’d be happy with that. His absolute upside is a tick above, if in fact he develops 3 ML average pitches.

            I don’t think you know how valuable it is to have 3 ML average pitches.

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    3. Keep in mind, the Phillies had Bonilla barely throwing the change up in game action because it’s so good that they worried he would lean on it and not develop his breaking ball. I think that says more than anything Goldstein can say.

      And that also probably means that he hasn’t talked to scouts who have seen much of the pitch.

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  11. wheres Tyler Greene it seems like every one doesn’t like his hitting ability or his plate approach is there some big problem that i’m missing with him.

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  12. It seems as though everone was so high on Tyler Greene and he has fallen off the radar. Something must be going on or off. Luckily the Phillies have great player development and they can help him.

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    1. Evaluators weren’t the ones that were high on Tyler Greene, it was the fans. This hype didn’t even come from scouting Greene in person much less seeing grainy Youtube videos…it came from reading the box score of 70 short season AB’s.

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      1. Think it actually comes from the position he plays. Many are taking the slightest sign of hope and projecting their wishes on him.

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        1. I don’t see any problem with wish casting a little on Tyler Greene. Like James mentioned, it’s not like any of those ranking him highly are doing so at the expense of a can’t miss prospect. He’s a high upside player and it’s not ridiculous to suggest he has a decent chance to be a top 10 guy in our system in the future. He’s got a solid mix of tools that has produced plenty of big leaguers.

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    2. I’m not sure what you mean by fallen off the radar. I thought someone reported that he has a wrist injury, which means we won’t be hearing much of him in the early going. If you’re referring to his not appearing in this top 20 — is that so unusual? Among the kids, the Phillies clearly thought higher of the other Greene and Quinn, than they did of Tyler, as indicated by draft order. Not that this means anything in the long run. We have a lot of talent from the 2008 draft and at the time, the Phillies preferred Hewitt and Collier to the half dozen guys who are viewed as actual prospects today, as well as Knapp, who would have perhaps been the top prospect, had he not destroyed his arm.

      Tyler Greene put up nice numbers in GCL last season, but he didn’t set the league on fire. It will be interesting to see what he can do in a full-season league this season, if he gets healthy enough, quickly enough.

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      1. I never heard of the wrist injury. I do not think that’s accurate. It could be, but I never read anything about it.

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  13. I notice there’s very little of mention of Horst. (I guess he’s still a prospect–12 games?).

    He’s gotten to the show, he’s left-handed, his numbers are okay (though walks are troubling).

    What’s the buzz on him?

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    1. Everything I’ve read on him (which is not much at all) suggests he is a replacement-level pitcher. That is to say he’s probably a AAAA player. There’s value in that, but it would be fairly redundant to call him a prospect.

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  14. The guy I am watching now is Carlos Alonso out of UD. He will probably play in Clearwater this year and be the best hitter they have (the Threshers will not have many hitters this year). He has been ignored by most people, yet he has probably turned in as good a performance as any prospect. Now that he is getting to the point that his advanced experience will not help him as much, I am curious to see how he does. As for the Quinns and Greenes of the world, I’ll be actually watching their performances instead of their hype to see if the evaluators have done a good job.

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