Open Discussion, week of 27 February 2012

Spring Training 2012

The Phillies have tabbed Austin Hyatt to start the first exhibition game of the spring. As you know from my Top 30 write-up, I’m very optimistic about Hyatt’s 2012 and I think it’s a great sign that the Phillies have rewarded him with the first start of the spring. Joel Pineiro is probably ahead of him on the depth chart as the next starter in line should an injury pop up, but Pineiro can opt out of his deal if he’s not on the 25 man roster at the end of spring training. Because Hyatt doesn’t have big time velocity and is older for a prospect (because he was older when drafted) he’s going to have to really put up numbers at AAA to stay on track, but I think he’s capable.

Also scheduled to pitch:

Jake Diekman
Jeremy Horst
Michael Schwimer
Joe Savery
J.C. Ramirez
B.J. Rosenberg
Phillippe Aumont

So, discuss this and anything else you’d like. I’m glad baseball is back.

67 thoughts on “Open Discussion, week of 27 February 2012”

  2. I would love to be able to see a video feed of this. You could get an awful lot of scouting out of the way in a 3 hour period.

    In any event, for those who have not done so, I strongly recommend that you consider purchasing the minor league baseball video package this year. The cost of the package was about $7 a month last year and $20 a year – I dont’ know what it will be this year but it will probably be pretty reasonable. For that price you received live feeds of many minor leagues games and access to previously recorded games which are archived. Basically, it gives you video access to virtually all AAA games and many other games. It’s great watching an archived game because you can just click to the portions of the game you want to see which, if you are watching only for scouting purposes, is very efficient. Unfortunately, most live feeds do not show velocity but often the announcers will tell you the pitcher’s speed on the gun (like late last year when I heard the announcer comment that Phillippe Aumont was sitting between 97-99 with his 4 seamer).

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    1. I was/am strongly considering getting the milbtv package; with the MLB package it was on $20 more. Hesitant because most of the prospects I want to see are in Reading-which isn’t shown-but being able to watch Brown and Galvis may be worth it, not to mentioned that bullpen.

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      1. Availability depends simply on what teams broadcast their games. Reading I think does Friday/Saturday night broadcasts at times. I think it’s well worth a purchase anyway.

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  3. Very interesting year to determine the future OF for this team. Have 2 guys in Mayberry and Brown that could establish themselves as legit big leaguers this year or could do the opposite and force the Phils to plan for their 2013 OF without expecting much from either of these two. My personal opinion is that both are going to have big years that make them part of the plans beyond 2012.

    At the minor league level, it will be a very telling year also for Gillies and James as both could put themselves on the radar for 2013 or more likely 2014, or the opposite. Another bad year, or injury plagued year is probably more accurate, out of Gillies and he will be about done as a prospect.

    And then there’s Victorino and Pence, if Brown and Mayberry have big years, it will be a tough call on whether to extend a 32 year old who’s game is in many ways tied to his speed. Seems to me that if the Phils have to pick between Victorino and Pence to keep around for 4+ years, Pence would be the better bet over the term of the contract.

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    1. I’m guessing the decision on Victorino will be determined by just how well Mayberry, Brown, Gillies, and James play in 2012. Probably why there has been no indication of contract discussions so far.

      If 2 of those 4 guys show they can be ML regulars, I expect they let Victorino walk after 2012.

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      1. If Hamels is signed long term, and if the team sticks to its guns on not going over the luxury tax threshold, then Victorino isn’t coming back regardless. Which worries me a bit for 2013 (and thereafter, but especially and most immediately 2013).

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        1. The signing of Hamels long-term has very little to do with Victorino’s return. Everyone is freaking out way to much over the payroll issue.

          As of this moment, the Phillies have just under $116M in committed salary for 2013. that covers Howard, Utley, Rollins, Ruiz, Nix, Lee, Halladay, Papelbon, and Kendrick along with a few buyouts for guys like Polanco, Wigginton, etc.

          Add in re-up costs for Bastardo, Stutes, Worley, and Mayberry and they have a total of 13 players under contract for around $120M. That leave them around $55M to sign the rest of the 12 players to get to the 25-man roster. Figure that a couple of the relievers in 2013 will come from the log-jam at AAA and that adds another $1M for 2 relievers.

          They can pay Hamels $20M per season starting in 2013 and they still have $34M left to sign the 10 players needed to complete the roster.

          If they want Victorino back, they can afford to pay him $10-$12m per season. It becomes a question as to if he’s worth a $4-year, $50M contract when you have other players in the system who can do a comparible the job for a much lower cost while also getting younger.

          Yes, every position on the field can’t be filled with a $10M dollar player but the team is not nearly as squeezed financially against the tax threshold as many seem to think.

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            1. Slow down just a little. Vic had the second highest average against left handers on a team that now desperately needs that.

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            2. Cheese four thumbs down. Thank you so much. I am glad that you can ignore the fact
              that Vic carried the team for a long time this year but then again many player score 25 runs in a month. Please keep those thumbs and your ignorance coming.

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            4. I want them to go after Michael Bourn. He’s everything we need in a leadoff hitter. Bat him 1 and Jimmy 2. there’s some runs to be scored there.

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            6. I like him at one but Bourn is a better leadoff hitter and is much more willing to use his speed vs. Shane and Jimmy.

              I think Jimmy’s power would play better at 2. I don’t really need the Placido Polanco type two hitter.

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          3. One of those ten players is Pence. Subtract 12-14 million right there. They’ll need a new third baseman, and maybe a 5th starting pitcher. And 20 million per year for Hamels is likely a best case scenario. So all of the sudden that 34 million is more like 14 million for 7 players. And would Victorino sign for 4/50? Depends upon his season to some extent – if he repeats his 2011, I think he is looking at a little more.

            Hamels and Vic both resigned could happen. But it won’t be easy.

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            1. I always thought that the Phillies are hoping on hitting on Mayberry and Brown and Victorino is on his way out. Now of course this is going to depend on their performances this year but Victorino could end up costly and as he ages his game will be hurt more than say a Jimmy Rollins because Victorino doesn’t quite possess the smarts to get by on declining speed. Also Victorino has a bit of an injury especially related to the legs. So if the decision is between Victorino or Pence you might have to factor in age. I really like Victorino it’s just we have a few outfielders in the system. If both Mayberry and Brown show they can be consistently strong performers it’s harder to justify re-signing Victorino.

              The money you could save would be spent on Hamels I guess or addressing 3B which when Polanco is gone we don’t yet have any viable options to think of. If this is Hamels or Victorino I would definitely go for Hamels because I think we’d have a much easier time replacing Victorino with the talent we have available than Hamels.

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            2. I think it’s way more likely Victorino walks and the organization relies on a mixture of youth and signable vets until a clearcut replacement is identified.

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            3. “doesn’t quite possess the smarts to get by on declining speed”
              FWIW, Eric Byrnes was going on about Vic’s baseball savvy and instincts on the Network. They’re saber-system ranked Vic as the 5th best CF.

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            4. He frequently takes bad routes in the OF and despite being faster than Rollins doesn’t steal bases as well as him. That’s where I’m coming from.

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            5. That’s why this whole series began with the statement that I expect the Phillies are hoping that some combination of Mayberry, Brown, Gillies, and James will make resigning Victorino for $10M+ per season unnecessary.

              However, if it is necessary, they can fit Victorino into their payroll structure. I certainly don’t expect that both Pence and Victorino will be with the Phillies long-term.

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            6. And I’m sure the Phillies could structure a deal with Hamels where he takes a little less $$$ in the first season in exchange for more on the back-end. Cliff Lee made $11M in the first year of his contract.

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            7. You may be right – this isn’t one of the situations that I am dogmatic about. But one reason I am thinking that there is some danger that the Phillies might dip out of contention in 2013-2014 (along with the team’s aging curve) is that there are no entirely satisfactory answer here. Gilles and James look more like potential 4th outfielders to me at this point, and in any event are not likely answers in 2013. Brown of course can’t play CF, and Mayberry doesn’t strike me as anything close to a long term answer there either. Certainly an outfield of Pence/Mayberry/Brown makes me very nervous about outfield defensive. OTOH, Victorino, if he can be afforded at all, is going to cost enough to constrain the team in other ways (e.g., at third base). Maybe the best bet is letting Vic go and trying to sign Bourn as someone else suggested.

              In retrospect, the Lee signing, celebrated by everyone including myself, and certainly paying off initially, seems maybe questionable in the long run. Of course don’t get me started on the Howard contact.

              Hope I’m wrong. Even if I am not, the team has enough organizational strengths that I don’t foresee a long period of non-contention.

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            8. Well, as long as Lee is posting 5-7.5 WAR seasons and throwing 220 innings a year, I think it’s pretty hard to second guess that signing. That said, we will probably not be able to assess the signing fully until year 4. The encouraging sign is that both Lee and Halladay seem to have improved as Phillies and, at least last year, where at the peak of their respective games. Absent a serious injury (always possible with a pitcher in his mid-30s), there is no reason to expect a preciipitous decline in the performance of either of those players.

              In fact, I am every bit as concerned about Cole Hamels’ health over the next 5 years as I am about Lee’s health. And it’s not just health. There’s more than a little part of me that worries that, one day, Cole Hamels will wake up and not be able to throw more than 90 MPH, which would reduce him from a possible ace to a borderline #3 or worse. And there’s some historical precedent for his velocity coming and going. I hope this does not happen, but it is more than a passing concern for a player who is likely going to get in the range of $20-24 million a year for a 5-7 year period.

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            9. My point would be that spending so much money on 3 ace pitchers – however good they are – is inherently risky, and you can make an argument that Lee is the riskiest. You can make the counter argument as well, as you do, but I’m inclined to say that the age difference between Hamels and Lee trumps your arguments. Halliday, of course, because of talent, durability, and a favorable contract, is a safer bet than either of the other two.

              To put it another way, it is possible, even easy, to justify the Lee contract in isolation (with the caveat that any long term contract to a starting pitcher over 30 always carries a lot of inherent risk), but looking at the team payroll as a whole, devoting over 60 million dollars a year to your top 3 starting pitchers is risky.

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            12. What about in value of WAR purchased?
              Can you project what Vic’s WAR will be in 2013 @ 33 versus what Pence’s will be @ age 30?

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    2. Gillies is going into the season very healthy and he’s been hitting and running all winter so I choose to be optimistic and hope the very likeable young man can put it all together. Minor league camp opens on March 1 and we just had our last weekend without baseball games until November! There’s no need to rush to sign Victorino. The team needs to get Cole signed and then they’ll sit back and see how many players perform this year. There are lots of factors that will go into whether they resign Vicotrino (how Mayberry and Brown do, whether Bourn resigns, how James and Gillies do, how Victorino does, etc).
      Exciting days ahead!

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      1. I think Victorino’s future and Pence’s future will be determined more by Mayberry and Brown than Gillies and James. I don’t think you can let Vic walk or trade Pence after ’12 because James and/or Gillies had big years in the minors. On the flip side, if Mayberry and Brown show themselves to be good major league players, that would likely impact their decision on Victorino and Pence.

        As it comes to payroll, I agree with the above comments. They are going to be losing Polanco and Blanton off the books at sizable salaries, and in essence Victorino’s current salary. Assuming they keep Pence, and they resign Hamels, I think they can afford to go get one high dollar position player free agent for 3B, LF, or CF.

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        1. They may be losing Polanco, but they lack a cheap replacement to plug in. Really, OF, the #5 SP to replace Blanton, and relief pitcher are the only areas to look for cost savings in 2013.

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      2. Gillies may have been hitting and running all winter, but unfortunately he hasn’t been hitting well. He stank in AFL. In addition to proving he can remain healthy this year, he really needs to hit a lot better at Reading than he did pre-injury in his initial Reading experience and at AFL.

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        1. Gillies is really tough to judge because we haven’t had consistent data on him. All we’ve seen is a pattern of injuries and alleged off the field issues. I really hope he can turn it around; I was excited about him when he first came over.

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          1. Agreed. But it certainly says something that BA left him off the Phillies Top-30 prospects list all together, a list they ranked in the bottom 5 in baseball. That isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of a triumphant return to AA for Gillies.

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  4. I reflect on Hyatt, and maybe he’s looking at 2-3 years bouncing between the bigs and AAA as a career (though hopefully better of course) and I would have to say that if that’s all he ends up doing, he’s still a very very fortunate man.

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    1. If Hyatt looks good, it will at least keep him in the discussion for later in the year if injuries occur.
      The more Dubee praises Diekman (who I believe is better than Savery at this point), the less likely I think it might be that they keep Willis. The Phils added a year to KK’s deal just to lower his salary for this year by $500K. It wouldn’t surprise me if they cut Willis to save his salary (its not guaranteed) knowing they have Diekman, Savery and Horst if they want a 2nd lefty, which is not a sure thing. With Polanco coming off an injury and not wanting to push Utley too much, they might want to keep Orr around again if they don’t want to rely so much on Martinez. Wigginton would normally be the back up there but he’ll be pressed into playing 1B often. Wig is probably going to be an everyday player, somewhere, until Howard cmes back.

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      1. They didn’t add a year to Kendrick’s contract, just to save 500k this season. (I’m not sure they saved more than 350k regardless). They added the year, to save a couple million next year (on his Third arbitration year) if he duplicates last years success.

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      1. Yeah, the up/down thing is pretty stupid. If you don’t agree, post a comment under a real screen name and have a dialogue.

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      2. I had the same reaction – that was laugh out loud time for me. All the guy did was ask for some basic information and someone gave him a thumbs down for his interest. Really?

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        1. I gave you a thumbs down for ending with “Really?”. on a serious note, the thumbs down thing is alittle out of control. I have seen several reasonable posts getting several thimbs down. I am assuming it is in a joking manner but who knows with people now adays

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          1. I am giving a thumbs down because I got sick once off of Jameson whiskey. After reading the comments above i am 90% sure all voting is tongue in cheek.

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    1. Aumont was on 1 of the 8 editor lists at #148.
      Biddle was on 3 of 8 peaking at #82 on one list.
      Pettibone was on 1 of 8 at #114.
      Valle was named on 1 of 8 at #91 (kind of a bizarre outcome for him).

      Domingo Santana made 5 out of 8 peaking at #114.
      Villar made 6 of 8 peaking at #51 (!)

      Also Keenyn Walker, a former draftee, made one list at #144.

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  8. Looking forward to the big team’s play and as much to the coming minor lg season. Since the ’11 draft has looked so good on paper, watching the ups and downs of this group of mainly HS infielders with some interesting pitchers AND the promising crop of prior draftees will keep us happily busy through October.

    Great expectations with some barriers along the way to be overcome.

    Can’t come soon enough.

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  9. Read that Vic says he is going to bunt more this year to utilize his speed…but then he claims he says that almost every year. Poor guy needs to get himself ‘together and bonded’, maybe another trip to Oahu with the 5-0 crew.

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    1. Don’t understand the move for them. A #4-5 starter can generally fetch you more of a return than a closer. (non all star closer I mean).

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      1. They’re converting their best SP into their closer. That means they’ll win the World Series, right? I mean, they’re obviously so ridiculously deep at SP that they can take an slightly above average SP and make him their closer, right???

        How can a team with such baseball savvy constantly be in last place? It’s mind boggling. I think there’s a conspiracy to keep the Astros, Mets, and Cubs down. Possibly the Mariners, too.

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        1. I don’t understand it at all. They’re turning 200 solid innings from Myers into 70 worthless innings.

          They’d be better off developing one of their kids into the role long term.

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          1. On top of that, who the heck wants a right handed “closer” who tops out at 89 MPH? Myers is pretty much cooked as a pitcher of any type, but as a closer? It makes no sense.

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            1. I’d wager that he lobbied for the job. I think he never got it out of his system. Its what he wants to do.

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            2. Agree……he absolutely loved the rush he once said about coming in with the game on the line. Just not sure how many of those type games he will be involved in with the ‘Stros this year.

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            3. They came to him with the idea. He’s in favor of it (obviously) but it was something the GM came up with.

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          2. Actually, you can make the argument that Myers will cause less damage in 70 innings as a reliever than he would in 200 innings as a starter.

            The 2 year extension Wade gave to Myers was example #3250 of why he is such a terrible gm.

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            1. As well as a terrible person the way the press tells it. What is with Wade and the Phillies ?
              I don’t get it even a little.

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  11. So Rangers and GM Jon Daniels sign DR OFJairo Beras for $4.5M, after he changes his birth date! C’mon man…..talk about unethical business practices, If MLB lets this go through they are just as corrupt. And then Daniels and a few other GMs question an international cap or draft for the purpose of equitable talent distribution. I guess alls fair in love, war and baseball!

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