Per Todd Zolecki, Justin De Fratus will be shut down for a week with elbow soreness. Given that he will now be behind all the other pitchers, and there weren’t many openings available anyway, he’s probably a lock to start the season in AAA. This is the first time he’s had any health issues, and its all just guesswork as to how serious this is. He may have just overworked himself this winter, or it may be a sign of something else. No use speculating right now.
The Phillies have brought in the usual mix of veterans this winter, meaning there aren’t many clear cut openings in the big league bullpen. Assuming the Phillies go with 12 pitchers (which they almost assuredly will), the current crop looks like this
SP (5): Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley, Blanton
RP (7): Papelbon, Bastardo, Willis, Contreras, Kendrick, Stutes, Qualls
This would leave zero openings for the likes of Phillippe Aumont, David Herndon, Michael Schwimer and De Fratus. However, this supposes that Contreras is healthy and ready for opening day. If he isn’t, there will be one spot open. Herndon has the most experience and would probably be #1 on the depth chart, but if Aumont has a lights out spring, I think they’d give him a look, since he is on the 40 man roster.
Discuss.
Phuture Phillies 
I wouldn’t rule out Herndon beating out Stutes. I think Manuel prefers Stutes based on how he was used by Herndon was better statistically, especially down the stretch.
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I agree that Herndon could beat out Stutes based on both of their performances late last year. Add Savery and Diekman to that list of names and you have a pretty interesting bullpen for Sandberg to play with. I don’t think there’s any chance Aumont starts the year in Philly. They want him to get work, not sit in the bullpen unused for long stretchs. I think that’s another reason why Herndon could beat out Stutes, so Stutes gets to pitch more. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if Contreras opened on the DL just to go slow with him. The spring training games will be fun watching all these guys battle. Let’s not forget that Pineiro was a pretty good pitcher not that long ago and if he looks good, they’ll likely make a spot for him too. And what if Sanches is healthy? Lots of fun options to follow…
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Agree that it will be almost impossible for Aumont to make the pen out of ST simply because he woulldn’t get regular work as the 12th man in the pen.
If Contreras isn’t healthy, both Stutes and Herdon will be on the roster and the have enough veteran arms to fill that 12th spot if another early injury pops up.
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Should add that Schwimmer is probably ahead of Aumont on the depth chart at this point based on his previous ML experience and lower projected upside.
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I wouldn’t rule out Herndon beating Stutes for the last spot in the bull-pen either. Herndon had a better ERA than Stutes last year and that seems almost impossible considering how far out of line his HR rate was, for the type of pitcher he is.
Stutes is a fly ball pitcher. Herndon is a ground ball pitcher. I would think that it is much more likely that Herndon would cut his HR rate, than it is for Stutes. Again, even with a ridiculously high HR rate, Herndon still had a better ERA than Stutes last year.
If Contreras is healthy there is no reason Stutes has to be put in a position to masquerade as a high leverage, 8th inning reliever. Herndon has as good a chance as Stutes to make the roster.
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If Herndon comes out and knocks people out all spring, then I will be the first to post here in support of him being in the bullpen. But based on past performance, I cant possibly think Herndon is more valuable than Stutes. I have seen Stutes be flint hard and strike out Uggla with the bases loaded, and strike out the side several times to preserve a slim lead, or throw his fastball and slider with no fear in any count. Herndon, has been crucified for his mistakes when he has pitched in big games. Perhaps it was bad luck and he will get better But he needs to earn it with way more than just garbage time innings. We already have kendrick for that this year.
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If by “bad luck” you mean having absolutely no command in the 2nd half, then yes, he had bad luck.
If you look at tape on Stutes, his breaking ball was all over the place.
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Sorry, by bad luck, I was actually referring to three home runs Herndon allowed versus and at Florida on September 3rd, his best month of the year. I was not, in fact, anointing Stutes as cy young, just reaffirming that Herndon was far from said Cy Young, ace.
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Sorry I miss read that.
Herndon really does get unlucky. I remember that one game he had, I think it was Halladay’s first home start, he gave up 3-4-5 infield hits/swinging bunt type hits to Polanco that just died on the grass.
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Herndon’s ERA was 3.32 and his FIP was 5.08. If anything, he was getting lucky last year, not unlucky. His BABIP was .266…which is also lower than the MLB average.
FWIW.
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Regardless of who makes the Phillies roster, It certainly looks like the Iron Pigs are going to be a team you want to get ahead of early.
Their pen looks to include Defratus, Aumont, Schwimer, Savery, Diekman, and the loser of the Herndon/Stutes battle.
That’s a pretty impressive AAA pen.
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Everyone is so glued to whether Aumont or Stutes or Herndon makes the pen. Has no one considered the possibility that Savery beats Willis. Willis was AWFUL at the end of last year.
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or diekman
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I have considered the possibility that Savery can beat out Willis, due to his extreme bouts with control and his minor league contract status. But considering that possibility, is much different anticipating that as a conclusion. It is also a much bigger leap than Stutes vs Herndon.
Willis has been dominating left handed MLB batters for about a decade, Savery has pitched like a majorleaguer for about 2 months.
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Again, I dont care who is out there, I want the hot hand. But the perfect scenerio is that both Willis and Savery dominate all spring and they go with something like this: Papelbon, Bastardo, Qualls, Willis, Savery, Contreras, Kendrick. Three effective lefties out of the pen (with Willis being the loogy) would be awesome.
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I am sure the Phillies have their eyes on two pitchers who won’t be members of the major league club on opening day. Aumont and Diekman, as a right left combination, could be devastating to opposing hitters if they solve their control and command issues. Both, bringing the heat from the mid to upper nineties, have a higher upside than most of the present bullpen staff. With sufficient command from these pitchers the Phillies bullpen would be lights out. I think the Phillies would like to see Diekman develop in this season with the Iron Pigs into a complete pitcher against both right and left handed hitters.
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When you look at the potential Iron Pig pen, it makes you wonder how they’ll find innings for all these guys. Maybe weak starting pitching will open up innings but I think a couple of these guys might have to go to AA to get innings. At least until the sore arms start showing up on the big league level.
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I wouldn’t rule our Brian Sanches either. He has been pretty solid the past three seasons.
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Dont forget about Jeremy Horst 😎
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Willis and Qualls are not locks to make the team. Both are low cost obligations that can easily be discarded if they have bad springs.
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Qualls may be low cost (1.1 mil) but he has a major league deal. He is making the team. He would have to be seriously injured, to not make this team.
Papelbon, Kendrick, Contreras, and Qualls are not part of this “competition”. They have major league deals. The competion is Stutes, Herndon, Schwimer, De Fratus and Aumont for the (1) last RH spot. The Phillies will have to carry at least 2 Lefties, now that they don’t have Madson to get LH’s out. Bastardo, Willis, Horst and Savery will compete for those 2 spots. That’s 9 pithers competing for 3 spots.
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The last several years have seen the Phillies only have 1 LHP in the BP going into the season.
FWIW. There’s no guarantee they carry a 2nd LHP. Its not as if UC is huge on using a LOOGY anyway.
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The team never needed a 2nd lefthander in the past, because Madson always killed lefties with his change. He was basically their second lefty.
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yeah, they never needed a 2nd lefty in the pen…except the year they won the WS
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And they picked up Scott Eyre in August of that year for nothing (aka Brian Schlitter)…they didnt’ go into the season with that spot locked up.
Nor did they in 09 when Romero started the year on the DL and didnt make an appearance until early June. Bastardo was the only LHP in the BP in 2010 to start the year as Romero was on the DL again and even Bastardo was rarely used.
Like I said, its not really a necessity to build the bullpen…especially in April.
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I like Savery. I really hope he is as good as he pitched at the end last year. I also find it absolutely cool as sh$t that a bullpen pitcher could come off the bench and belt a lefthanded double for you in the clutch.
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It’s not a necessity to build a bullpen. another brilliant post. you’re on a roll
of course they can add pieces during the year. the pen in april isn’t going to be the same as it is in sept/oct. that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have two lefties to start the year.
part of the reason why the bullpen sucked last year is becasue bastardo was the only lefty
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The point, genius, is that there is no reason to assume they will build the BP in April with 2 LHPs…especially if one of the RHPs has a fantastic spring. The fact that they haven’t made a 2nd LHP a priority any other year during this run only supports my point.
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“Part of the reason the bullpen sucked last year”.
Purely ridiculous and false. The bullpen had the 8th best ERA in MLB last year. They were higher than that until September, when they started giving up MORE runs, WITH two (2) Lefties in the pen.
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Glad to see this site has devolved into philly.com with the name calling and hatred towards other posters. Is it impossible to comment and disagree without calling the other person names?
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It’d be nice for them to have a 2nd lefty. That way you can mix/match in the 5th/6th inning if need be when Worley or Blanton are on the mound.
I know its a competition and all but most likely the 7th/8th/9th are locked down with Bastardo/Contreras/Papelbon as long as everybody’s healthy.
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I agree that they will use 2 left-handed pitchers. They probably are looking at Bastardo and Willis being those pitchers. I don’t consider Horst to be competitive. Savery is not at the level of either of his competitors. The right-handed option will be a battle between Stutes and Herndon. Both are capable, but both have shown a tendency to lose concentration. I thought De Fratus would be more steady, but his elbow problems may leave him in Lehigh Valley. I think Valdes, another left-hander, will be with Lehigh Valley. He has pitched well recently. He may merit a look before the year is out.
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Can’t wait to see this bullpen for the Iron Pigs. The rotation, not so much. I believe with the rotation the Iron Pigs will field there should be enough innings to go around. Personally, for cost control reasons I would prefer that our future bullpen started in aaa this year. Gotta make up for that Papelbon signing.
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I agree. I personally hated the Papelbon signing, because I felt we had all these live arms to find a future closer on the cheap, which would allow for our crazy payroll in other areas. But now that we’re here, we might as well let these guys get as much seasoning as possible while holding back their arbitration.
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Joe Kerrigan says Jon Paps is ‘lights out’ in the ninth.
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Is this supposed to be sarcastic? So what? Lidge was lights out. Madson was lights out. Bastardo was lights out until he ran out of gas late last year.
Heath Bell has been lights out for years, and the Padres couldn’t trade him at the deadline last year. If the kids had failed, then you go get a closer at the deadline for alot less then $50 million.
Hey it isn’t my money, except for the thousand or two I’ll probably drop on tickets, beer and Bull’s BBQ this year, so I’m not too worked up at this point. However, if the Papelbon deal prevents us from being able to resign Hamels, then it is a disaster regardless of Papelbon’s performance.
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Papelbon’s signing will not prevent Hamel’s extension per David Montgomery.
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How else could David Montgomery possibly answer that question? I hope this is truly the case.
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It’s not going to. It might limit their ability to resign Victorino or sign a number 4 type starter (the Edwin Jacksons/Roy Oswalts of the world).
They’re not going to let Cole Hamels go because of money… it’ll be because of years.
… which doesn’t make sense. They gave Lee 5 years at 32. 7 years for Hamels, the contract would end with him being younger than Cliff’s final year.
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They COULD have traded Heath Bell at the deadline.
They didn’t because they thought they’d
A. Resign him
B. Get a First Rounder plus Comp pick for him.
C. Didn’t want to trade both he and Mike Adams.
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C’mon dude, you’re playing with semantics, my point was that closers are always available at the deadline. The simple fact is that the position has been devalued by most of major league baseball, which is why Madson swung in the wind all winter.
And actually, the correct answer is:
D. For public relations purposes, they were better off pretending they would try to resign him instead of taking the pittance they COULD have gotten for him
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If it is Hamels you are worried about, he will be signed, irregardless of Paplebon…IMO it is Victorino who will be the sacrificial lamb. His talks have not started and he already likes the idea of testing the free agent market.
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If your Papelboner lasts longer than six hours you should contact a doctor immediately.
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I believe the recommended precautionary warning is 4 hours for those who partake of the blue pill.
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Agee with many of the comments here. I would look for Aumont and Diekman to pitch at AAA to keep them sharp and still developing, especially the latter as a loogy. I would think the final components to the pen will be between Stutes and Herndon, with Contreras starting on the DL to slow him down. I would expect the pen to be : Pap, Bastardo, Qualls (too experienced to not keep), Willis (also a great runner and pinch hitter supreme), KK, with a battle between Stutes/Herndon/Savery for the 6th slot. I say Stutes wins the race with a good spring.
Let’s not forget Phils went to him over and over again in the end and I think they wore Stutes down a little as hewas noticeably tired. Also, early line says that Schwimer gets traded at the end of spring training for another backup catcher for the AAA team – there are just way too many viable relief pitchers there with those that don’t make the big club and you can always use another good defensive/pitcher handling “Molina” in the event Schneider gets banged up again – which you can take to the bank.
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Herndon and stutes don’t impress me. You go with Aumont who gives you some pop. This team needs more energy and Aumont having initial success would give this team some real confidence as their starting pitching and closer are as good as anyone. Atl & Nats are in real trouble if Aumont wins a spot in pen from having a good spring training.
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I’m sure that everybody here hopes that Aumont realizes his obvious talents and becomes another present and future “lock-down” bullpen piece. Yet the command he has got to refine is unlikely to show itself in ST to the extent that is MLB ready; time at AAA is where that can be accomplished. The Phils’ pen is not needy. It shows now to be plenty good at the season’s start.
When Aumont and DeFratus have some more AAA time they would be available as fill-ins if/when needed. Polish for both would aid their success when they DO come up….very likely sometime during this season. Now reason to rush them.
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This was alluded to above, but Willis’s $1M carries no guarantee correct? That plus the the fact that he has never worked out of the pen seem to make him far from a lock to make the team. People get too carried away with his bat, which is a nice luxury to have, but they aren’t going to use a roster spot on him for his bat if he can’t come in out of the pen to throw strikes to one or two lefty batters.
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It was alluded to above, but I don’t think it is correct. Willis has a ML contract so his $.85M is guaranteed. He is a 99.9% lock to make the team out of spring training.
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The deal is not guaranteed. If they release him before the season starts, they’ll only have to pay him for 45 days.
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Diekman’s really opening some eyes. If his control ever picks up, he’s going to be a nasty relief pitcher in this league.
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I agree with this. Rich Dubee, the king of the understatement, described Diekman as having a “tremendous high ceiling.” I don’t recall him every describing a prospect or other young pitcher in such glowing terms. Heck, he never said anything that nice about Ryan Madson, even when he deserved to be complimented.
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If you want to see lots of Phuture Phillie pitchers then the Fla State game is the one to see. Hyatt, Diekman, Horst, Schwim, Savery, Ramirez,,Rosenberg and Aumont are all stated to pitch. someone must get 2 innings. If anyone is attending in person, I’m sure we’d all like to hear some 1st hand accounts. I know… it’s the 1st outing of the year and it will be short sessions for each guy but it’s will be nice to hear about the smell of the hot dogs, the taste of that 1st tapped keg and what these guys threw, how hard and whether any of them threw some off-speed stuff.
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Do we have anyone on the ground in clearwater who can report back the workout groups when posted? I haven’t seen Rickey Branch post here in a long time.
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I didn’t go through all of these comments but I actually think it could be less than 50/50 that Willis makes the team. Manuel has gone with just one left hander at times and Willis is basically horrible at this point in his career. Yes, his numbers may be better against lefties than they are overall but what’s the point of the having him on the team if he sucks. I think Savery has a good shot for his spot and I wouldn’t be that surprised if Stutes AND Herndon make the 25-man in April and that’s not taking into account whether or not Contreras is ready by April.
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